What You Get for $700,000 in Logan Square: 2501 N. Fairfield
This 4-bedroom single family home at 2501 N. Fairfield in Logan Square has been on and off the market over the last 17 months.
It appears that there was a significant renovation done in 2000-2001 as the listing describes it as “newer construction”.
The home now totals 3600 square feet. The kitchen has 42 inch maple cabinets, stainless steel appliances and granite countertops.
The master bedroom has vaulted ceilings and the basement is fully finished.
The house has also been reduced $20,000 since April 2009.
Is there a premium for properties in certain areas of Logan Square?
Mark Paonessa at @Properties has the listing. See the pictures and a virtual tour here.
2501 N. Fairfield: 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, 2 car garage, 3600 square feet
- Sold in May 2000 for $130,000
- Sold in January 2001 for $480,000
- Originally listed in April 2008
- Cancelled in July 2008
- Re-listed in April 2009 for $749,000
- Reduced
- Currently listed for $729,000
- Taxes of $7176
- Central Air
Does the 3600 SF calculation include the basement? If it does, the actual is about 2400 SF.
Also, folks, if you can only afford draperies from Target, just buy wood blinds. Much better look…
I will state simply: thank you to the realtor for not calling this a West Bucktown property.
“Is there a premium for properties in certain areas of Logan Square?”
this is a wonderful place nicely redone
but as for me, i will never pay above 300k to live in Logan Square, unless is the Historic District and a nice vintage place there i would pay 2mil if i had the $$$$$.
The listings in 2008 had the price at $799k. I laughed long and hard at that number back then. It’s not brick, it’s frame. The house next door is a 2-flat shack on a slab, with another frame shack next door to that, with a craptacular coachhouse you can look at out your maple-cabineted kitchen. ZERO yard, but a two-car garage. Yeah, they did a nice job, sure it’s one of the nicest areas in Logan Square over there, it’s walkable, but I’d call upper 500’s, lower 600’s if anything.
Sellers are still thinking it’s the summer of 2006 over here. No one wants to admit they might not have seen much appreciation over the years, still.
This will sit over the winter, vacant, but I’m pretty sure the owners will keep it heated.
Hey Groove, how about this? It’s on the Boulevard, east of Cali, although I can’t help but think at some time in history this was not a SFH, but a beautiful 2 flat….
http://www.trulia.com/property/1090893828-2649-W-Logan-Blvd-Chicago-IL-60647
“It appears that there was a significant renovation done in 2000-2001 as the listing describes it as “newer construction”.”
Since when is almost 10 years “newer construction?”
I guess some people think that certain features are more timeless than I do (the track lighting in the basement, ceiling fans and beadboard kitchen island).
speaking of ‘areas of Logan Square’, this morning on the news there was a report of a kid getting shot at a Halloween party. The party was at ~1700 N Rockwell. They referred to it as Logan Square. That address is south of the Bloomingdale tracks & armitage. Its only 3 blocks from the actual Humbolt Park, yet they call it Logan Square.
If the news can’t get the neighborhood right, then I guess we shouldnt be so shocked when the RE agents mess up too.
Tom, I noticed that too. Odd.
I know the area pretty well. The couple of blocks around it are nice, with a lot of families with kids. I think high $500s are about right, maybe $600K. The area has improved a lot since the 2001 sale. Nothing is fully safe in the city, but this area is significantly different from parts farther west and south. The downside is that it could slip back a bit.
You don’t get a viable public school option (I think this is Goethe neigborhood), but there are Catholic schools and trying to work the CPS system.
“Does the 3600 SF calculation include the basement?”
Yes. The footprint is ~1400SF, so it’s not 3600 on two levels.
Altho, maybe there’s an 800 sf deck that they’re including (haha).
“if you can only afford draperies from Target, just buy wood blinds”
b/c cheap wood blinds are as cheap as cheap curtains?
Also, unless that’s the longest bunk/loft bed in the world, that bedroom is closer to 7′ wide than it is to 9′.
Why would I pay Lincoln Park prices for craptacular Logan Square?
“Lincoln Park prices”
Where are the genuine SFHs in LP for $730k?
“Where are the genuine SFHs in LP for $730k?”
2700 WILTON was talked about here and its only 550k
DZ,
I had an argument with a Jonny before about this hood, its nice but 700k nice, heck naw.
“i will never pay above 300k to live in Logan Square”
also i think the school is brentano but i dont know if thats a magnet or academy or whatever
“2700 WILTON was talked about here and its only 550k”
And it’s only 2 BRs. And one single (small) house does not make “Lincoln Park prices”. This place, anywhere in 60614, would be languishing on the market at $1.2 or something absurd. It wouldn’t sell at ask (barring a fantastical location), but neither will it in it’s actual location.
“And one single (small) house ”
also this house does not make “Logan Square prices”.
@ 730k there are better hood options in the city.
C’mon, this is not a LP price, and the hood is not craptacular (you’re excused for thinking otherwise if you haven’t been there in 8+ years, though). . .
. . . but probably not worth $730k either. I saw this place a few months back and it was less appealing than other places nearby $100k-plus less.
It does feel “newer” even if it’s a stretch based on construction dates. The zero yard thing is a major negative to some, but others/Soniees like that.
Also, you’ve also got $1.6m-plus listings only a few blocks to the north (including a new one just this week! What the. . ). And 100-year old $540k Queen Anne’s selling a block to the south. And (I agree) shack’s in between.
So who the heck knows what it’s worth. Sure is fun to watch tho.
“also this house does not make “Logan Square prices”.”
Do you have some special internet where I wrote anything like that?
“@ 730k there are better hood options in the city.”
Of course there are. And there are better house options in this ‘hood at $700k. But saying that $730k for *this* place is “Lincoln Park prices” is silly, no?
And, yeah, of course $700k+ is optimistic (read–wishing) for this place, for all of those reasons and many more.
The somewhat offbeat (not sure if that’s exactly the right word) nature of the neigbhorhood is a positive for some people. There are some who don’t want to live in Lincoln Park or Lakeview, even setting prices aside. I don’t think it’s a $700K house, but I think it might be a $600K house and is certainly a $500K house. If you want to be reasonably close to downtown, have a bit of walkable commerce, have a good commute, have a real house (or at least a real house given city lots), there aren’t that many options for under $600K.
This area has improved a lot, even in the last 5 years that I’m familiar with it. I don’t discount that it could backslide a little, but I think it will hold steady (I’m just talking about the quality/safety of the neighborhood, not prices).
What does it say for our fair city when a turnkey SFH in a so-so gentrifying neighborhood lists for $700k? Especially when there are extremely limited schooling options….just who do these people think they can sell this to? Broke hipsters? a younger couple gearing up to have their own children? The $700k price tag is just shameful, totally shameful, the should be embarrassed of themselves. You hear in the news that the housing market has bottomed out and prices are actually starting to rise and then you see this type of crap. My neighborhood is full of this type of overpriced homes looking to sell to another greater full in the ponzi scheme.
I’d consider this place if I could buy for a price that assured me I would get my money back when I tried to sell when my children reach school age. HOw much is this place worht a month? $5,000? $3,000? I think it’s worth paying $2,200-$2,500 per month, tops, including taxes. you can reverse engineer the mortgage from that. The days of the $3,000+ mortgage for the middle class masses is OVER
“Do you have some special internet where I wrote anything like that?”
yeah, i got that internet that the guy from “An Inconvenient Truth” created.
“But saying that $730k for *this* place is “Lincoln Park prices” is silly, no?”
true it was a crazy statement.
DZ,
“This area has improved a lot, even in the last 5 years”
it has improved in certain pockets of the boundaries in LS, I if i had the cash would have a vintage mansion on logan blvd. if not my parents would (they grew up there). i frequent that area and the wife loves that cafe bolero on western. (stretching the LS area there).
but now with things getting rough again in the world… look west of this house and south and you are seeing many forclosures and run down properties, gangs hanging on corners, people who can take a loss moving, and more section 8’s popping up. not saying its going to turn into a austin or garfield park but outlook doesnt seem great.
it a nice house and 700k like anon says is wishing price. but its a nice house plopped in the wrong lot
Square D,
i think i know that 1.6mil house i vaguely remember it from the logan square house walks that i go with my mom and aunts. i would pay 1.6mil for it.
“I would pay 1.6mil for it.”
Ah, the power of “would”. . . 😉
Why would I pay Lincoln Park prices for craptacular Logan Square?
Why would anyone live in Lincoln Park?
I’ve lived within walking distance of this place for many years — I lived a block away when it was built. If I recall correctly, a small frame SFH on a decent-sized lot came down to make way for this. They didn’t leave much space on the lot, at any rate.
It’s not worth 700K, that’s for sure, and I’d be very surprised if it moved anywhere near that price. Only someone from Lincoln Park or the Bay Area would be dumb enough to fork over three-quarters of a million for this house.
OK place, but lacking in curb appeal/exterior features, and it’s a haul to the Logan Blue Line.
plenty of other good things about this part of LS (as a kid I lived briefly on the 2600 block of N Fairfield), but I’ll be surprised to see this crack 600K in this market.
“Only someone from Lincoln Park or the Bay Area would be dumb enough to fork over three-quarters of a million for this house.”
Someone from Lincoln Park would only be dumb enough to pay three quarters of a million dollars for this house if it sat on top of a lot in Lincoln Park.
Classic case of a speculator trying to ride the coat-tails of Lincoln Park appreciation. Unfortunately for them this is 1.5 miles too far east to qualify.
Wrong side of the highway, wrong side of the river. 450k for this.
Err 1.5 miles too far west to qualify.
Bob has a case of the Mondays indeed.
“and it’s a haul to the Logan Blue Line”
It’s a short walk to the California stop. It’s a longer walk to the square, but nice walk on Logan if you are going to the farmer’s market, Lula, coffee shop, etc. and not in a hurry.
What do people think of the $480K price at end 2000/beginning 2001? If that was a reasonable price, then $575-600K does not seem unreasonable to me given improvements in the neighborhood. E.g., the park at the corner of Fairfield and Fullerton was a mess before they rebuilt it as a playground.
Here’s the thing, $600K (or $480K in 2001 for that matter) is a lot of money. And yes for $350K you can buy a place out in far northwest of the city (with better schools). But for $600K, what can you buy that’s a door-to-door 30 minute commute into the Loop, has decent walkability with retail, and is a SFH?
It could be the case that everything is going to tumble even below 2000 or 2001 price, and I don’t discount that possibility entirely, but if not, where would you live?
“$575-600K does not seem unreasonable to me ”
Seems about right to me, too.
DZ: “What do people think of the $480K price at end 2000/beginning 2001? If that was a reasonable price, then $575-600K does not seem unreasonable to me”
I think you’d be hard-pressed to find someone that would argue with this place being a good deal at $575K. Problem is – it’s more than $150K more than that.
Improving a park/playground does not add 120k in real estate appreciation. What I think is that you’re using a bubble mentality. There are fewer jobs than there were in 2000, and wages for the majority of the population have remained flat or declined. The only way the lifestyle for most Americans was able to stay constant over the past 30 years was ever increasing debt levels and easy credit.
For the top 5% of the population that has seen real wage increases I think there are 10x as many properties catering to this segment than actual potential buyers.
I think its doubtful that every area is going to tumble to below 2000 prices but I think its definitely in the cards for a lot of areas to.
For me? I’m just going to rent for now. Its cheaper and provides much more flexibility for me. If I see a screaming deal or a condo I just fall in love with within the next few years I might be tempted to buy but there seems to be few of either category in this area in my opinion.
“I think you’d be hard-pressed to find someone that would argue with this place being a good deal at $575K”
i think no one should ever pay more than 400k for logan square, ever! (exceptions of historic and blah blah blah and maybe a whole apartment complex).
“Ah, the power of “would”. . . ;-)”
oh just wait my megaball numbers WILL come in. you will be the first Evite to my housewarming
ET,
“I’ve lived within walking distance of this place for many years”
please elaborate on how this hood sucks, i know there are worse, but i would like another person on my side 🙂 unless you agree that logan sq is “quirky” and “keepin it real”
anon,
“Seems about right to me, too.”
really? 🙁
“The days of the $3,000+ mortgage for the middle class masses is OVER”
For the 600-800k segment yes. For the 400-600k segment maybe in retreat but far from OVER. Right now the main factor impacting the 3k mortgage segment is employment.
What created the 3k mortgage segment was easy financing and employment. We still have easy financing. Only until easy financing is also removed will we see this segment literally implode overnight.
So, I checked what dude owes:
He bought with a single $384k mortgage
Refi’d Apr-02 for $382k
Refi’d Oct-02 for $382k
Refi’d Oct-07 for $388k–Mortgage released Mar-09
Refi’d Apr-09 (dated Mar-09, to match the release), lender is an individual. The amount? $1,052,000. The owner does not appear to own any other proeprty in Cook County, but this could be a multi-parcel mortgage recorded in multiple counties.
““Seems about right to me, too.”
really? ”
So long as there are still $1.3m+ houses trading in North Center and LP/LV/BT, and there are condos up and down Damen trading at $500k+, then, yeah, $575k seems about right. The replacement cost of the structure is ~$350k, leaving a $200k+ lot. Like I say, about right, given the contours of the market.
Now, whether I would buy it (or even recommend it to someone) is an entirely different question.
“It’s a short walk to the California stop. It’s a longer walk to the square, but nice walk on Logan if you are going to the farmer’s market, Lula, coffee shop, etc. and not in a hurry.”
Good point on the California stop, I live between the Belmont & Logan ones – of course, the appeal of those two stops is they’re underground, which is a huge bonus in terms of both less noise on the street & not freezing your tuckus off in the winter.
And it’s just a matter of time before the actual Square (ie, roundabout) gets overhauled – right now it’s an urban planning nightmare as far as pedestrian (and driver and cyclist) safety, but the shops are great, and when they get the infrastructure of the streets/crosswalks updated for how the neighborhood is used in 2010, it will be a huge improvement.
I think you are under-rating the neighborhood. First, take a look at the CPD crime statistics by precinct and beat (http://gis.chicagopolice.org/CLEARMap_crime_sums/startPage.htm#). During the past 12 months looking at all crime, that neighborhood is safer than 75% of the neighborhoods in the city – its ranked 211 out of the 281 beats, where 281 is the “least dangerous”. Compare those to most neighborhoods in Lincoln Park, Lakeview and Wicker Park (granted, many of the beats in those neighborhoods rank higher in crime due to 1. the numerous bars, and, 2. the opportunity for property crime given the population density).
Second, the area has great access to transportation. The property is in easy walking distance of the California blue line, and about .5 miles from the Logan Square stop, which runs express to/from Damen during delays, and is covered (no rain or snow or cold). That stop is also adjacent to a multi-line CTA bus terminal. Two 90/94 on ramps are also less .5 miles away.
Third, how many decent neighborhoods have walking distance access to two historic, tree-line boulevards (Logan and Kedzie)?
Fourth, business owners are already recognizing the significant improvement in the neighborhood. In the past few years, the following establishments have opened: Dunlays (same owners as the one on Clark and Smoke Daddy’s in WP), Logan Bar (same as North*Side in WP), Rocking Horse (same as High Dive in West Town), Cole’s, Whistler . . . the list goes on . . . Several great restaurants are just down the street, including Buena Terra and Rustik. Plus, Sbux at California and Logan. Target, and all the shopping aling Elston & Logan is also in walking distance.
I agree, the place is over priced. I think if the construction was more solid (i.e. brick al-a some of the more historic houses) and surrounded by some of the nicer greystones in the neighborhood, then it could fetch a price in the $700-$750K range.
“Improving a park/playground does not add 120k in real estate appreciation.”
My reference was a bit oblique. There were basketball courts, which served as a gang hangout and part time dealership facility, before the conversion to a kiddy playground. More generally, the area around here was much less safe in the past.
“I think you’d be hard-pressed to find someone that would argue with this place being a good deal at $575K. Problem is – it’s more than $150K more than that.”
I agree that it’s too high at the moment. I was responding to people who thought it would be too high at $575K. I think this is an example of why the market moves so slowly. I think the owners are just regular homeowners, not speculators. They believed (not completely unreasonably) that their house was worth $750K at one point. Now they are loathe to give up the paper profits.
One of my pet peeves is that people cite to Case Shiller flattening or trending up as evidence the market is picking up. But Case Shiller prices are still at 2002-2003 nominal levels. At which point this house should be about $515-525K (plus another $50K plus for neighborhood changes). But homeowners are still listing at bubble prices because (1) they say to themselves that prices are stabilizing without paying attention to the levels and (2) they say their houses are different for whatever reason (in this case I agree partially, but about $50K or $75K different, not $200K different).
Does anyone else wonder what happened to the floors in the kitchen? Doesnt exactly look like less than 10 year old wear and tear to me.
“But homeowners are still listing at bubble prices because ”
Or..
3) Real estate still affords the most leverage for speculators and so they flock to it.
At a former job I had a cubicle near an aspiring land baroness (is that even a word?). Guess she could fit it into her time to try to speculate with real estate on the side. I always got a chuckle on a few Mondays her shock and disbelief when talking to her realtor on thge phone that the traffic was very light for her weekend showings.
In the stock market you can’t borrow four, five or up to nineteen dollars for every one dollar of equity. In the 1920s it used to be you could borrow up to nine dollars for ever dollar of equity and there was an unchecked speculative bubble in stocks. We all know how that story turned out and eventually our government had the sense to cap leverage on stocks to 1:2 for initial investment and 1:4 for declining values.
Theres no margin calls in real estate, just a bunch of zombie banks and people praying for a greater fool at some point.
“So long as there are still $1.3m+ houses trading in North Center and LP/LV/BT, and there are condos up and down Damen trading at $500k+, then, yeah, $575k seems about right. The replacement cost of the structure is ~$350k, leaving a $200k+ lot. Like I say, about right, given the contours of the market.”
anon, i see your point now of where you come to that conclusion.
i was worried somebody hacked your computer and was posting under you 🙂
Logan Square,
“I think you are under-rating the neighborhood”
Its not that i am underrating it, i just think that its overrated going forward. I said this before Humbolt and logan buzz and turn around were happening cause the bubble things are on a down turn and i dont forsee a wicker park bucktown quick turn around or even that oddity that is pilsen turn around.
the is and was great housing stock in humbolt and logan with access to transport and 90/94 plus decent sized parks. with forclosures and the surrounding “bad” areas getting bigger and worse i just cant see logan area get passed the “turn” in the next 10 years.
“Does anyone else wonder what happened to the floors in the kitchen? Doesnt exactly look like less than 10 year old wear and tear to me.”
Dunno, but if they actually look like that, they need to sand and refinish them if they want to sell this.
“anon, i see your point now of where you come to that conclusion.
i was worried somebody hacked your computer and was posting under you ”
Thanks for the concern.
“I think you are under-rating the neighborhood”
“Its not that i am underrating it, i just think that its overrated going forward.”
I agree with all of you. There are a lot of plusses. Retail is good and in some ways better than Wicker/Bucktown because you don’t have all the traffic and congestion. I know there’s less stuff but I don’t care that much about all the boutique stuff over there. And blue line and Kennedy are great. It’s also within reasonable driving distance of a lot of the city.
But despite the positives I’ve said about this particular area, it’s far from fully gentrified. That’s not necessarily bad. There are many great residents who are poorer in this area. Nice families with nicer kids. But if the economy keeps going down I can see how it would deteriorate.
But overall, I weigh in on the plus side.
“So long as there are still $1.3m+ houses trading in North Center and LP/LV/BT, and there are condos up and down Damen trading at $500k+, then, yeah, $575k seems about right. The replacement cost of the structure is ~$350k, leaving a $200k+ lot. Like I say, about right, given the contours of the market.”
I disagree with his assessment and here is my logic: instead of a continuous spectrum of wealth I think there are a few select wealthy people out there then a WHOLE LOT of middle class dual income couples posing as wealth because they have decent incomes, but they aren’t wealthy by any stretch of the imagination–they are corporate slaves using leverage to overpay for places like this. And gosh forbid if one gets laid off or mommy wants to stay home with the kids.
The 1.3MM price was likely due to the purchaser having wealth in NC, iirc they had a substantial downpayment and had money. Chances are they are not in the same socioeconomic category as a dual income couple making 200k wanting to buy this place. Real wealth means job loss isn’t nearly as big of a concern and mommy can stay home to care for the kids, etc.
If RE valuations should mirror incomes or asset accumulation there shouldn’t be a continuous spectrum but rather a discrete high end that is quite small then a disconnect/void until we get down to real upper-middle classdom. And its my belief that real upper-middle classdom is going to have to come to terms that they can’t afford a 600k city house in the future if they want to raise a family.
“Thanks for the concern”
anon,
just looking out for my north center homie 🙂
gotta be careful with hackers nowadays they can get your login and mess up your crib chattering and delete all your “special” pictures saved on your computer. (maybe its my wife deleting those saved videos)
DZ,
there are some great positives in this area, and for a renter this is the spot to be!!!! short term
i am looking long term cause this is a SFH and all so the next 10 years are iffy plus schools here are below iffy now.
The small mexican grocery store can save you $50 a week over here.
If that 200k a year couple was in any way shape or form connected to real estate, chances are they didn’t make 200k in 2008 or 2009.
Most of the young families I know in this neighborhood will likely leave in 5 years when their children hit school age, though that’s the overall trend for the city anyway. I’m not sure how the public schools look, but the closest private K-8 school (St. Sylvester) seems to have decent marks, granted at a cost of $4,000 per year per child . . . but the property taxes are less than the burbs.
Logan Square never experienced the massive price appreciation that WP and BT did, and you can still get much better space for the price. Location and demographics ultimately drive neighborhoods. I think the benefits of the location (i.e. access to transportation) are undisputed, and the demographics (read median household income) have continued to improve – relative to its position a few years ago and the city as a whole.
As I mentioned in my previous post, business owners already believe the Milwaukee coordior between Western and Kedzie can (and will continue) to sustain their establishments. These are the same owners that have successful businesses in other successful neighborhoods. They wouldn’t put that much money at risk in this type of capital market without a strong belief in future returns. Pilsen and Humbolt Park never had the business investment that LS is getting now and the crime rates are much, much, *much* higher, so I don’t see how those are fair comparisons.
The available evidence seems to point to a sustaining trend. Grove77 – what do you have that backs-up your dire 10-yera outlook?
“instead of a continuous spectrum of wealth”
Dude, no implication of a continuous spectrum of anything; I was making two points:
1) if SFHs in “desirable” city hoods are trading at $1.3m+, then new-ish SFHs in less desirable (but non-bad) city hoods will probalby trade at ~50% or more off.
2) if ordinary 1500-2000sf condos in ordinary 3/6/12 unit buildings in desirable hoods, but not prime locations are trading at ~$400-500k, a new-ish SFH in a better part of a less desirable hood will likely trade at a somewhat higher price.
And a corollary: stuff in the 600-900k market that’s non-exceptional in some way (size, finishes, location, schools, mark-down from last sale, whatever) seems like a really tough market right now, because it’s a segmet that has mostly targeted people stretching a little and jumbo loans are expensive now and raising $200k for a DP is hard.
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/2/369618-125719062578565-Individual-Global-Investor_origin.png
kindof proves steve h was right about pending vs closed in May-June, time-frame, in which the pendings did translate to sales just took more time.
Why don’t you link to one of the SHill’s posts to support that claim, revassal?
Your conclusion is simply unbelievable.
I shouldn’t be defending the guy (cause hes an ass) but you got to calm down after all your the one who baited him.
http://cribchatter.com/?p=6671
Shouldn’t doubt my memory.
I also remember you had some discussion later/called him out when it went down;
”
#
Steve Heitman on April 27th, 2009 at 7:19 am
Pay a lot of attention to this article. It is exactly what I said last week and March numbers are nothing. May & June #’s will not only be higher month over month, they will also we higher than 2008 numbers. This is a big step forward.
Most have realized that prices are inline with rental rates (at least the properties that are moving) and at 4.5% a 30 year fixed looks much more attrative than rental rates that will certainly rise in the next 10 years.
“
voilà over 2008 in Aug 2009
http://blog.lucidrealty.com/images/Chicago_PMSA_sales.jpg
Hope this suffices.
”
#
revassal on November 2nd, 2009 at 6:20 pm
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/2/369618-125719062578565-Individual-Global-Investor_origin.png
kindof proves steve h was right about pending vs closed in May-June, time-frame, in which the pendings did translate to sales just took more time .”
voilà over 2008 in Aug 2009
http://blog.lucidrealty.com/images/Chicago_PMSA_sales.jpg
Hope this suffices.
”
#
revassal on November 2nd, 2009 at 6:20 pm
kindof proves steve h was right about pending vs closed in May-June, time-frame, in which the pendings did translate to sales just took more time .”
Stevo was always a master manipulator (mastor-ator?) with regard to selective cherry picking of facts and stats.
But do you have any data to support that properties that are moving are in line with rental rates? I don’t see that in any Chicago neighborhoods that aren’t considered dangerous.
Being I am someone who just renegotiated my rent down over 5% and expect to do another 9% drop come lease renewal (6 months). Granted I live in no luxury unit, but given my landlord owns many buildings and they are budging on price I’m inclined to believe others that are able to are as well.
What is your rental rate data, revassal? Because I am under the impression that buyers today are relying on a meager 8k tax credit, artificially low interest rates and their immediate housing needs and little else (HOWMUCHAMONTH + RE IS GOOOOD MAKE SLOTH HAPPY!). In fact the few buyers I’ve known over the past year seem to perceive it as a “status/coming of age symbol” as those did during the bubble with little thought about their long term life situation or the financial implications of depreciation of their purchase.
Revassal,
Let me get this straight: you are claiming the SHill was right about sales volume timing except for the timing?
You even missed the SHill’s backpedaling later in the thread:
“Steve Heitman on May 2nd, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Sales will be flat or slightly higher for May and June. You look in the rear view mirriw and I will look at what is coming.”
My doubt in your memory is exceeded by my doubt in your comprehension.
he might of backpedaled doesn’t take away from the fact of his opinion, which you disagreed with, just the sales data part of it, bob.
that quote is exactly attributable to the assertions you were disagreeing with (and what I was talking about)
“You look in the rear view mirriw and I will look at what is coming.”
pending vs closed.
default judgment for revassal against G’s allegations.
:-p
“Grove77 – what do you have that backs-up your dire 10-year outlook?”
Mr. Logan Square, i have no data or statistical stuff to give you, my opinion is just that ‘my opinion’.
i can give you my grandparents lived in logan Square and my parents were raised in logan square, when i was a kid we lived in loagan square for 3 years and when i was an “adult” i had a breif one year stint in logan again. I heard the stories of the “hay day” of logan before the expressway ran through it. i have seen it get bad, get better, and now slip a little. i ordered my first pitcher of beer at congress pizza. Being in chicago all my life (except that 3 months in naperville and two years at college) and now live just west Logan Sq for the past 7 years. i have seen many hoods change, some for better some for worse.
“my opinion” is that as of lately all the positive changes, or gentrification (dont like that word) have happend FAST, like 5-7 years time fast, logan has been trying to change since 1995 and it has made strides but it just seems like it cant get the momentum. yeah things in 2008 were looking good with business poping up and trendy BBQ joints opening.
my dire 10 year thing has to do with how things are now and going forward, its rough out there people are still losing jobs, borrowing has been cut, so your not going to get a hipster or yuppie trying to keep it real and over extend to buy a 700k place in logan like 2006, people are scared, spending less and when the are spending its not in pricey boutique stores, next summer i predict crime will be at a all time high for chicago. (my opinion)
so areas that have not “turned” most likey wont reach the turn in the next 5 years and with the surrounding areas getting worse how long do you think it will take for the “spill over” to take over the good areas?
What gentrification the bubble gaveth the deflating of the bubble will taketh away.
There’s less jobs in America now than before the bubble started. To think that we aren’t going to see massive price depreciation and de-gentrification in neighborhoods spawned during the boom is very hopeful, in my opinion.
“1) if SFHs in “desirable” city hoods are trading at $1.3m+, then new-ish SFHs in less desirable (but non-bad) city hoods will probalby trade at ~50% or more off.”
Key words from your quote are the last three. This speculator is praying that because there is wealth a mere two miles away and homes go for 1.3MM in Lincoln Square maybe their crap shack in Logan Square is worth 50% of this. Its worth even less.
Err rather..”in neighborhoods becoming desirable spawned during the boom”..
“This speculator is praying that because there is wealth a mere two miles away and homes go for 1.3MM in Lincoln Square maybe their crap shack in Logan Square is worth 50% of this. Its worth even less.”
Which, if you actually bothered to read and remember ANYthing here, you would see I agree with. I’ve said that $575k seems about right, which is over 55% less than the Berteau place.
Oh, and if houses are (generally) $1.3mm in **Lincoln Square**, then this place is probably worth more than $575k.
Keep setting up your strawmen, dude, don’t bother me none.
I guess we just differ in the degree of magnitude. I’m thinking 65-75% less by 2014, or 325k-450k.
“I’m thinking 65-75% less by 2014”
Maybe so, but last I checked, the change to standard time is moving back one hour, not ahead 5 years. I’m only talking about *right now*.
If 2/2 condos in fringe LP/LV are still $400k+ in 2014, this will still be $500k+, barring a complete collapse of safety in Logan Square (which might happen, I guess). If those 2/2s are more like $250k, then I’d say $375k-$425k–ie, I’d agree with you. And, if that’s the case, I doubt anyone would pay $1.3mm for the Berteau house; more like $900k.
Grove77 – I see your point, though most of the businesses I listed were late 2008 or summer 2009. I guess time will tell. Large portions of Lakeview used to be crime ridden, as was WP and even some parts of LP up until the mid-90’s. Demographic shifts, people looking for good transport access and the ability to buy cheap significantly aided that transition.
The above property does not fall into the cheap category. It is way over priced for the quality and neighborhood. However, a simple MLS search will show that there are numerous (perhaps too numerous on the outskirts) deals to be had.
Does anyone know how to get unemployment stats (estimates) within Metro areas?
your question worked, just add Chicago in Google
http://www.bls.gov/ro5/ecichi.htm
http://stats.bls.gov/ro5/news.htm#employment
“I guess time will tell. Large portions of Lakeview used to be crime ridden, as was WP and even some parts of LP up until the mid-90’s. Demographic shifts”
Logan Square,
Very true, even look at the cabrini area the bubble and daley changed that quick. now Realtors call that a part of OLD TOWN sometimes. (thats stretching it) WP and BT were crap in the late 80’s but that turn happened FAST, like the west loop and the bubble brought south loop. demographics change over years but i notice the huge changes happen quick. where my parents are now they bought 15 years ago was a really beautiful overly manicured lawn Italian hood. over those 15 years it got worse, not dramatic worse, and is predominately a Polish and Mexican hood now.
i want the best for logan square area because i can reap the benefits of the spill over 🙂 but i am being realistic of the future and what the present hold now going forward.
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?series_id=SMS17000000000000001&data_tool=XGtable
Sure looks to me like employment in Illinois is lower than it was in 1999, in fact if you do the graph you can go back to 1990 and it looks like employment is about equal with 1996 levels.
Also in terms of real wages (wages adjusted for inflation), I’d bet they are actually lower than they were in 1996.
Current RE valuations are based on hope, dream, and zombie banks.
it feels like 1991; I believe my house is worth the hope, dream(s) you talk about.
Hmm…well Iraq is in the headlines again and a George Bush was president recently..but..
Doesn’t look like 1991 to me:
http://www.alternet.org/images/managed/blogimage_2007revised.jpg
“that quote is exactly attributable to the assertions you were disagreeing with (and what I was talking about)”
“pending vs closed.”
revassal,
Like I said: You simply did not comprehend my argument. I showed that the actual contract numbers disproved what the SHill claimed.
Pending is a fine forward indicator as long as one understands them. The SHill clearly did not.
You see, it wasn’t about “pending vs closed” as you misunderstood, but the SHill’s ability to misinterpret even the simplest data.
Bob –
Employment never fully recovered in our area after the 2000/2001 downturn — of course, population also declined.
I was looking for stats within Metro areas, as in Chicago but not the Chicago MSA . . . or, even better, by neighborhood. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that data is available.
“looking for stats within Metro areas, as in Chicago but not the Chicago MSA . . . or, even better, by neighborhood. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that data is available.”
Census data would probably be your best shot, but that’s a big ship, so you wouldn’t be able to see any short or medium term trends.
G, my point is valid; yours seems valid, I never addressed that point. I believe I addressed that situation as well.. * (he’s going to do it, it’s his job)
“You simply did not comprehend my argument…: SHill’s ability to misinterpret even the simplest data.”
something to the effect that you 2 were babies; meaning it was moot. However his assertions had merit for discussion, where as your that the mrkt will crumble like pouring water on a sugar cube. That’s where my opinions come into play.
“However his assertions had merit for discussion, where as your that the mrkt will crumble like pouring water on a sugar cube.”
Your comprehension has failed once again. Any links to me writing anything like that?
I have lived in this part of Logan Square for 35 years. It has always been a great place to live. In those 30 years, we have traded the middle class Poles and Germans for Middle Class Puerto Ricans and Cubans and now we are trading them for Middle Class yuppies (if that is a race). So the last 5 years have brought us great restaurants and a shopping district on Elston, but there will be no quality of life backslidding here because is was great to begin with. Walking down Logan last Sunday with the leaves turning last week was breath taking. No matter what the real estate market does, it will be so.
DBA
DBA,
quick question, Do you live on or right by logan ave?
G creative license; you should take your grumpy shot.
I live on Logan and Richmond.
DBA thank you,
Logan and kedzie are beautiful stretches of streets with great vintage mansions, like a beautiful time capsule. But you have to admit when you venture even walking distance towards diversey it starts changing quick. and once you cross fullerton, same thing starts happening. a freinds little brother was a gangbanger over on california and palmer (he was shot and killed about 5 years ago there).
sorry i am so negative on this chicago area 🙁
I do hope people like you, Logan Square dude, and logansquarean, stay in this area and fight off any down slide that may/may not happen.
and if my MegaMillions numbers hits you may see either me or my parents at MLS#07233177
reduced again, now listed at $699k.
Somehow I doubt this was a big enough reduction.
“and if my MegaMillions numbers hits you may see either me or my parents at MLS#07233177”
Did Groove win the lottery and not tell anyone? Sold for $1.35MM.
“Did Groove win the lottery and not tell anyone? Sold for $1.35MM”
nope not yet, my $1 a week has been a negative return for the past 3 months. last win i gots mee a ten spot 🙂
but if i do hit i will NOT be buying a historic mansion on logan for my parents, the greedy old farts now want a condo with a lake AND city view.
Looked up CCRD on the 2501 N Fairfield place. There’s a really odd mortgage for $1MM last year. Also a sale in 2001 for $480K in 2001.
High $500K, perhaps even low $600K would be reasonable for this.
Sorry, went back and looked at comments just now. Figured someone would have commented on the mortgage. Thanks anon:
“He bought with a single $384k mortgage
Refi’d Apr-02 for $382k
Refi’d Oct-02 for $382k
Refi’d Oct-07 for $388k–Mortgage released Mar-09
Refi’d Apr-09 (dated Mar-09, to match the release), lender is an individual. The amount? $1,052,000. The owner does not appear to own any other proeprty in Cook County, but this could be a multi-parcel mortgage recorded in multiple counties.”
Loganquarean,
Stop commenting on people’s home, I owe the shack house you referred to in your common. I am not wealthy a do the best I can to maintain my home. Are you a homeowner? I highly doubt it. People like you seem to have the courage to insult others online. You have my address, let’s crib chat face to face.