The Biggest Story of 2016: Will Inventory Finally Move Higher?

Lincoln Park Zoo holiday lions 2014

It’s been several years of low inventory in Chicago across all spectrums of properties including single family homes, townhouses and condos.

The result has been bidding wars and rising home prices along with really low market times.

In the last few months of 2015, however, inventory slowly crept up and bidding wars have receded.

From Redfin’s Market Tracker:

The supply of homes for sale was up 3.3 percent year over year and the city had a 6.5-month supply of properties for sale, Chicago’s highest since 2012 and a sign that buyers are starting to gain an advantage.

Buyers have more choice and are more cautious, but sellers haven’t yet gotten the message. They’re pricing their homes too high, which might have contributed to slowing sales last month. Despite a dip in sale prices, asking prices rose nearly 10 percent to $250,000. The typical home sold in 25 days.

Every neighborhood is different, however. In Logan Square, the average home sold in just 9 days in November versus the 40 days it took in Streeterville.

And in some neighborhoods, single family homes are selling within hours whereas condos will sit.

But a rise in inventory would bring some relief to buyers from bidding wars and price increases.

The last couple of months could have just been a temporary slowdown. The real test will be in about 6 weeks when the spring buying season begins.

With prices back to record highs in many neighborhoods, will homeowners finally be looking to move in 2016?

 

87 Responses to “The Biggest Story of 2016: Will Inventory Finally Move Higher?”

  1. last year’s “2015 predictions”
    http://cribchatter.com/?p=21985

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  2. Well my prediction last year was right.
    I think the housing market is pretty stable and nothing crazy on the horizon.
    Now the fun thing would be to predict who’ll be the president.
    I say the election would be

    Hillary vs. Cruz or Rubio

    She’d win against Cruz but would lose if the nominee is Rubio :)
    Not that Cruz and Rubio differ so much on policy, but because Cruz is butt ugly and Americans often pick the better looking candidate. I kid you not 😉

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  3. I was pretty right as well except I think the inventory is still contracting

    my guess is Sanders Vs. Trump

    Sanders would win that one

    Rubio is a clown and Cruz looks like a pedophile

    Hilary has a chance with the big money backing her but nobody really likes her that much

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  4. “last year’s “2015 predictions”

    Quite the 180 from Sabrina since then.

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  5. And I’ll go with Hillary vs Trump and Hillary wins. I think Hillary would beat any of the repubs (assuming she doesn’t die before then…).

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  6. reading through all 250 posts of that thread is certainly entertaining

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  7. 2016 is in the bag already for Trump. I was telling people this privately before he even announced and here we are months later and Trump is still defying gravity. He’s got to purposely try to fail to be any worse than the two presidents consisting of W’s first through fourth terms. I’m not a Trump voter but he far and away has the most momentum of all the candidate. there’s a moderately socialist site I visit and even though they are Sanders fans, they straight up admit that Trump, despite his ridiculous comments, says a lot of things that make a lot of sense, and they begrudgingly admit that they hate to admit he’s right. this to me shows a broad appeal to what he’s saying.

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  8. Trump will win. He’s the smartest candidate. A proven person. All of us in real estate should marvel at what he’s been able to accomplish in our business where there’s nobody close in Chicago who’s barely made a buck.

    Trump is right. Make America Great Again. He’s our last chance to reverse the American Wiemar and inspire the youth to progress. Obama has put 50 million on food stamps, increased our debt, and hired racists (Holder, Lynch et al) to make our country more divisive than ever.

    Illinois is a prime example of the failure of Bluetopia ideas.

    Trump won’t actually solve our problems, because they are mathematical, but he’s the most brilliant of all the candidates and really the best choice.

    Trump represents OPTIMISM. Those who say he represents fear are losers who don’t want to admit that they aren’t on Trump’s level, so they’d rather the whole country wallow where they are instead. That’s selfish and ignorant.

    Hillary is a joke. Her husband was a sexist and misogynist, and Bill Clinton is depised by his own demographic, which is men. What kind of weird guy is he? To be happy to be despised by his own kind?

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  9. @helmethofer, how about Cruz? What are your views on him?

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  10. Cruz:

    Of the 250,000,000 or so Americans eligible to run for president, Cruz is a Canadian whose wife is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Call me a low information voter, but that’s the only information I need make a decision about Ted Cruz.

    This information coupled with his decision to announce his candidacy at Liberty University (look it up!) means that democracy in America is clearly over.

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  11. My wife and I have an agreement to move to Paris if there is a Trump or Carson presidency.

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  12. “Fred on January 1st, 2016 at 3:03 pm

    My wife and I have an agreement to move to Paris if there is a Trump or Carson presidency.

    Good bye! Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out!

    I hope you’re away that Trumpism is like times 100 with something called the National Front in France…yeah, ex-pats like to ignore that fact; and France as a whole is far, far more white than the US of A….

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  13. The National Front in France merely seeks to preserve the French culture and society that Americans pay thousands of dollars to experience as tourists. They represent civilization and good. Big shot Fred should move to Rabat or Panama City or Abuja.

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  14. It never ceases to amazing me how every election cycle, the candidates get worse and worse. Hillary or Trump? What have we come to?

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  15. This is interesting.

    They are building teacher housing in many cities across America now but it’s not only the places you would think like Silicon Valley and San Francisco. They are also building it in Milwaukee and in Asheville, NC.

    Housing prices are soaring in so many cities that they are outpacing the ability of “regular” workers to live there. This is what gives Chicago an edge. People right out of college who are making average salaries can still live here pretty easily.

    In Aspen:

    “Our typical pattern with teachers is they come to the valley, it’s an absolutely beautiful place, it’s a great lifestyle with wonderful recreational opportunities, and they are willing to live with roommates and do whatever they have to do to make it work for four or five years,” she said. “And right at that 5-year mark we see a lot of them saying, ‘This is great for a while, but I’ll never be able to afford a home here or make it work here, I’m moving on.'”

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cities-look-at-subsidized-housing-to-stem-teacher-shortages/ar-BBo9meK?li=BBnbfcL&ocid=iehp

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  16. connectedspace on January 3rd, 2016 at 9:14 am

    Sabrina: they might have a better time keeping teachers if they paid them more than peanuts.

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  17. I had no idea that this forum contained so many Trump supporters who have been indisputably documented as:

    *having significantly less education then your average voter

    *a much greater likelihood of being white

    *significantly poorer then your average voter

    *middle-aged or older

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  18. CPS teachers have no problem being able to afford to live almost anywhere they want with their average salary of $76k. A couple where one person is a teacher and the other is a city bus driver are pushing into upper middle class territory.

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  19. The latest polls have been saying that people will privately vote for Trump but won’t tell pollsters.

    They’re trying to avoid people like you, a *political bigot*, who will socially shame who exercising their right to vote for the candidate of their choice.

    “I had no idea that this forum contained so many Trump supporters who have been indisputably documented as:
    *having significantly less education then your average voter
    *a much greater likelihood of being white
    *significantly poorer then your average voter
    *middle-aged or older”

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  20. “CPS teachers have no problem being able to afford to live almost anywhere they want with their average salary of $76k. A couple where one person is a teacher and the other is a city bus driver are pushing into upper middle class territory.

    Teachers in all but the poorest of school districts around the cou9ntry do quite well for themselves despite the narrative that teachers are paid a pittance.

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  21. Aspen is an extreme narrative of teachers being unable to afford housing in their community. The problem is that housing in nice areas is extremely expensive. But that applies for all professions, not just teachers.

    A high school educated family member of mine recently lamented that the parents in the local school district are all married and college educated and that makes it difficult to relate. Now to me this suburb is considered ‘middle class’ and wealthier people I know have derogatorily called it ‘working class’ despite that it’s primarily dual income college educated households. And it’s relatively expensive too; I couldn’t imagine making decent money and voluntarily choosing to live tehre, but many people do. And it’s expensive even for dual income college educated households, because the alternatives are living in areas where no one is college educated and crime is a lot higher. It’s not just a teacher problem, it’s an everyone problem.

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  22. It is a democracy and you should vote for whomever you want HD, but people are also allowed to analyze and point out who are the majority of a candidate’s voters.

    I am truly baffled by the Trump phenomenon. People around me point out that he has no chance, but hey Berlusconi won the Italian election and more than once.
    He insulted women about their looks, made sexist remarks left and right, insulted other EU states, had scandals involving minor women, prostitutes, etc… and still managed it :)

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  23. @ Jack, there are only 2 people HD and HH who have shown support for Trump. I think that is not a big number at all.

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  24. The problem at this point is the Hillary is the front runner for the democratic nomination. I can’t see myself voting for Hillary or Trump. My only hope is that if either gets in, there will be too much gridlock for either to get anything done.

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  25. miumiu:

    I have not expressed any support for Trump. In fact, my exact quote above was “I’m not a Trump voter”.

    I’m just saying that he has broad appeal and the polls show it, despite the trite nonsense being thrown around by those political bigots who think their political views are superior to others. It’s the same as racism or religious bigotry.

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  26. “broad appeal”? really? He currently has approximately 16% support from the broader general voter base…. here’s a prediction, Trump will most likely not receive the Republican nomination, and, regardless who wins that nomination, Clinton will when the presidency…

    you all should be very happy about this, since it is well documented that the economy does much better during Democratic administrations versus Republicans… look it up, it’s just facts…

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  27. “Sabrina: they might have a better time keeping teachers if they paid them more than peanuts.”

    In many towns, the “underpaid teacher” nonsense is such a myth. I speak from personal experience on this. Even if you don’t prorate their salaries over what can’t really be compared to a full time corporate job, their salaries (and benefits) are quite good.

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  28. jack,

    you and every pundit has been saying the same thing since the day he announced his candidacy….and you’ve all been wrong…again, not a trump supporter here, just a realist.

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  29. “Aspen is an extreme narrative of teachers being unable to afford housing in their community. The problem is that housing in nice areas is extremely expensive. But that applies for all professions, not just teachers.”

    Of course it does. But they used it as an example in the article of where they are building housing because society doesn’t operate if they don’t subsidize housing for the teachers. Will have to do the same for firemen, policemen etc. Who are the waiters in Aspen? I don’t know. But I’ve wondered the same thing in San Francisco. Who works at McDonald’s in San Francisco? Where do they live? Perhaps they already live in subsidized housing, I don’t know.

    But the article says they are building teacher apartments/homes in Milwaukee and Asheville, NC, two areas that aren’t quite as extreme as Aspen or the Bay Area. So clearly the housing affordability issue is not confined to the extremes.

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  30. Teachers in all but the poorest of school districts around the cou9ntry do quite well for themselves despite the narrative that teachers are paid a pittance.

    If you are paid $47,000 a year in the Bay Area that is considered poverty level for a family of four. You don’t make the “average” salary (in any job) until you’ve been there for quite some time.

    The Baby Boomers are retiring. Gen X is already established. They are having to hire Millenials now to fill these jobs. The Millenials are graduating with debt. They aren’t Gary’s daughter making $150,000 a year and can afford $2000 a month in rent with roommates. They are making under $50,000 to start these jobs.

    Same with secretarial, paralegal and dozens of other jobs. Heck, a government attorney in San Francisco will make like $80,000 working for the IRS and that isn’t even a livable wage.

    But, thankfully, Chicago isn’t these cities. I don’t know why Milwaukee is having to build teacher housing. Have rents skyrocketed that much up there?

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  31. “CPS teachers have no problem being able to afford to live almost anywhere they want with their average salary of $76k. A couple where one person is a teacher and the other is a city bus driver are pushing into upper middle class territory.”

    The article is about hiring “new” teachers. They cannot attract any new talent because starting salaries, even at CPS, aren’t $76,000. They are 23 and single. So, no, they’re not “upper middle class” territory.

    But yes, even a newbie teacher in Chicago can at least still rent a decent apartment in Edgewater and other neighborhoods on a starting CPS salary.

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  32. By the way- nobody in the middle class can be paid enough in some of these cities to keep up with rising home prices (and apartment rents.) Teacher or otherwise.

    That’s why they are building subsidized housing. Interesting that the Silicon Valley apartments only let you live there for 7 years.

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  33. “indisputably documented”

    What about all the rejects, uneducated, and food stamp recipients who voted for Obama?

    Jack is just a typical Bluetopia beta male chump, who would rather vote for Hillary Clinton than a successful American male. Lol. Jack is everything wrong and moronic with this nation, and esp. among those who “think” they are educated. They side against their own kind as form of one-upsmanship to make themselves appear different. Thing is the girls these beta dweebs like jack think they’ll get by cozying up as a douche will ALWAYS prefer a Trump to a Jack. They’ll settle for a Jack if he can pay bills and do dishes and change diapers.

    We’re going to take the loser Bill Clinton’s crabby and wife even he cannot stand, and elevate her above a successful brilliant person like Trump? How does that make any sense? Men who like Bill Clinton are crazy, those who like his wife even he doesn’t prefer or like are even more nuts.

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  34. I have never understood San Francisco housing prices. As Sabrina has mentioned, they don’t all work in Silicon Valley which is 40-50 miles away. The Financial District of SF is puny as compared to Manhattan’s. I’d guess there are 50x more high paying jobs in NYC as in SF. It’s bizarre. There are more finance and high powered jobs in LA than in SF too.

    SF is like an Evanston with hills and Evanston is actually a more pleasant place and easier to navigate and travel around.

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  35. Spent a few nights in SF over the holidays and, as always, I thought about Sabrina while there. We typically stay over in the Half Moon Bay area (near family), but this time stayed in the city. Even with the weather (basically nonstop light rain and 40 degrees), it was great being there. That said, were we to accept the downsides of CA living (high housing costs, private school, the eventual “big one”) and move there, it wouldn’t be to the bay, but to LA or SD.

    And now to my own perceptions of the bay area and biglaw, I have Sabrina’s narrative of life in Aspen to add to the mix!

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  36. “Thing is the girls these beta dweebs like jack think they’ll get by cozying up as a douche will ALWAYS prefer a Trump to a Jack.”

    hahahahahahaha!!! It never occurred to me that I should be making voting decisions based upon the type of “girls” I could potentially ‘cozy’ up to!

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  37. pretty sure the only younger ladies that even will mention politics in passing casual conversation are the ugly disgusting Wicker park SJW’s that helmet despises so… ???

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  38. Doesn’t HUD basically give homes away to teachers, firefighters, and police officers will to live in bad neighborhoods?

    There are definitely select markets where it’s nearly impossible for a middle or upper middle class person to live, but that’s life. People need to get over the fact that they may not be able to afford to live in San Francisco or New York City.

    My guess is that fast food workers in cities like Aspen are the children of wealthy families.

    Chicago is an extremely affordable city in terms of the cost of a home. It irks me when politicians want to put low income housing in nice neighborhoods, when the city is filled with places affordable to poor people.

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  39. “A couple where one person is a teacher and the other is a city bus driver are pushing into upper middle class territory.”

    So, Jenny sez UMC starts around $150k.

    “$47,000 a year in the Bay Area that is considered poverty level for a family of four”

    How many first year teachers are the sole earner in a family of four? I’ll bet you a dollar that it is not a statistically significant number.

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  40. I think housing values in SF are high because of zoning laws. If I am not mistaken, there are some restrictions on high rises which prevents higher density housing. Funny how that works… government intervention distorts a market making it unaffordable and then government has to intervene some more to make it affordable.

    Sonies, the moonbat libs in Oak Park built an affordable housing complex a year or two ago at a cost of almost $300k a unit. Oak Park is surrounded by affordable housing. It is called Berwyn, Austin, Maywood, etc. Plenty of bus and train service to and fro. For the cost of their affordable housing complex, they could have just bought people houses in some parts of Oak Park.

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  41. “political bigots who think their political views are superior to others”

    Way to rise to the defense of extremists of all sorts.

    I feel very comfortable that my political views are superior to MANY others. If you want to call me a bigot for it, I will call you an ISIS-apologist, and a defender of Sharia.

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  42. “So, Jenny sez UMC starts around $150k.”

    I’m just going along with the predominant opinion on this site. My true opinion differs.

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  43. “the moonbat libs in Oak Park built an affordable housing complex a year or two ago at a cost of almost $300k a unit. Oak Park is surrounded by affordable housing. It is called Berwyn, Austin, Maywood, etc. Plenty of bus and train service to and fro. For the cost of their affordable housing complex, they could have just bought people houses in some parts of Oak Park.”

    don’t even get me started on that nonsense! Its akin to the retardation of building a ton of “affordable” housing at like 500k a unit on the near north side and the panderman is the main culprit as to why its there so much

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  44. Only now found this post. I don’t know where Redfin is getting their data but they are just wrong about Chicago inventory. There are several different ways of measuring months of supply but none of them tell me that it’s actually increasing or anywhere near 6.5 months in the city.

    Using current month under contracts, which is probably the best way the standard calculation for November was 4.5 months supply and that’s down from 6.4 months in November 2014.

    I’m going to be doing my December update on Friday but I can already tell you that inventory just keeps getting lower and listings are down.

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  45. “I feel very comfortable that my political views are superior to MANY others. If you want to call me a bigot for it, I will call you an ISIS-apologist, and a defender of Sharia.”

    Hahaha, that’s quite a leap, not sure how to respond, except that ISIS believes it’s beliefs are superior to all others, thus making them bigots too. while I am open to most political viewpoints, I’m not as accepting those viewpoints that shame, degrade and vilify those viewpoints different from their own.

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  46. ” I’m not as accepting those viewpoints that shame, degrade and vilify those viewpoints different from their own”

    Then you are–by your own definition–a political bigot, HD, and you should shut your hypocritical trap on the subject.

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  47. HH, who believes his views are superior to all others posted “Trump will win. He’s the smartest candidate. A proven person. All of us in real estate should marvel ….Trump won’t actually solve our problems,… but he’s the most brilliant of all the candidates and really the best choice. Trump represents OPTIMISM. Those who say he represents fear are losers who don’t want to admit that they aren’t on Trump’s level, so they’d rather the whole country wallow where they are instead. That’s selfish and ignorant.” I disagree.

    Imo Trump’s typical of 1%’ers who start life on 3rd base (grandfather & father created Trump fam RE fortune) and delude themselves into believing they are self made home run hitters. He wouldn’t have been successful except for access to family money & connections (like GW Bush, baseball team owner & oil man). Trump’s used his family money &connections to his advantage every chance he’s had. HH like Trump confuses T’s success with intelligence. T’s been successful overall & he’s learned from mistakes (no personal guarantees after his very close call w/ bankruptcy). But IMO he’s an idiot who, as an example in Chicago, violated the cardinal rule of real estate (ie for HH: location matters) by BS’ing himself & then his lenders/investors into believing exc. retail tenants would rent from him on Wabash. Hey it’s very close to Michigan Ave, right! And remember when he pitched buying his hotel rooms as condos here? He’s been bailed out on his Chgo res investment by lack of competition, not his genius-ity. I understand why some want to be led by a loud successful lout. But IMO Trump appeals to the ignorant self deluder’s among us not the optimists.

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  48. The depressing part is that I could write the same paragraph essentially about the democratic front runner.

    These two candidates make me want to move to Canada no matter which one wins.

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  49. “move to Canada”

    Public Employees unions and welfare benefits are even better in Canada, jenny. Your higher taxes will help pay for them to live the high life even more than in Chicago.

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  50. True. I could never really live in Canada unless I still had easy access to our health system: http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/calgary/Long+Canadian+wait+times+send+patients+south+surgery+Video/9702357/story.html

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  51. anon (tfo) on January 4th, 2016 at 11:53 am

    ” I’m not as accepting those viewpoints that shame, degrade and vilify those viewpoints different from their own”

    Then you are–by your own definition–a political bigot, HD, and you should shut your hypocritical trap on the subject.

    ARE YOU SHAMING ME BECAUSE I HAVE A DIFFERENT VIEWPOINT?

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  52. ^ triggered

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  53. “ARE YOU SHAMING ME BECAUSE I HAVE A DIFFERENT VIEWPOINT?”

    No, I’m telling you that your “viewpoint” about “political bigotry” is dumb. Stoopid, even. Complete, parody-level, nonsense.

    “There’s only two things I hate in this world. People who are intolerant of other people’s cultures and the Dutch.”

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  54. The southbounds and Jacks of the world really need professional help. They alone must figure out why they instinctively side with, and root for, the rosey o’donnells-of-the-world over Donald Trump. It’s jealousy probably.

    Trump is a success, southbound and he achieved it on his own. He could’ve been just another NY version of a Chicago Ruttenberg/Joe Zekas client type, but Trump is so much more obviously. He also made himself a bona fide media star. I don’t see Sam Zell accomplishing that either.

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  55. PS I’m starting to believe some of this gender “fluidity” stuff, because males like southbound and Jack have it. Lol.

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  56. Trump is just an all around horrible excuse for a human being. Remember this? http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20070113/ISSUE01/100027082/dumped-by-trump

    (By the way, I think Hillary is a horrible human being too.)

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  57. WSJ has an article today reporting how Trump’s dealt with partners, contractors & lenders when he hit bumps on his road to Richie Rich-dom. Amazingly this left leaning liberal publication (ironic humor HH) agrees with my take on Trump’s ‘success’, detailing how T needed his family’s money to get started & also to bail him out/ avoid bankruptcy from time to time. (Maybe HH can refer the professional help WSJ clearly needs.)

    Remember Steve Martin’s SNL skit on how to get rich? “First, get a million dollars, then…” Well about the same time as the skit Trump got $1 mil from his dad, then invested it in his first RE deals….”

    I’m not jealous – just a believer that how a person treats people ultimately tells all about that person. I’m also not a believer in the righteousness of T’s ‘lease-a-wife until she becomes about 40’ program either but that’s their business.

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  58. “No, I’m telling you that your “viewpoint” about “political bigotry” is dumb. Stoopid, even. Complete, parody-level, nonsense.”

    Ah once again, shaming.

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  59. lol just wanted to thank everyone for the entertainment provided in this thread.
    Happy New Year!

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  60. “Ah once again, shaming.”

    Ah, continuing playing dumb. Keep it up long enough, and your brain will get stuck that way.

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  61. “how Trump’s dealt with partners, contractors & lenders when he hit bumps on his road”

    Not just when he hits bumps. He’s pretty consistent in taking as much advantage of his ‘partners’ as he can, and threatening to sue everyone for anything.

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  62. The WSJ is a Neocon tribe mouthpiece on politics. Since Trump doesn’t share their foreign policy, globalism, and open borders philosophy they are attacking him.

    Trump still has created great businesses and employed thousands of people. Compare that to hedge fund a-holes like Paul Singer. There are lots of privileged Highland Park brats who had a big leg up in life who aren’t a fraction of what Trump is.

    Trump also has an Ivy League degree, just like nobody Obama had.

    So, when a liberal darling like Steve Jobs goes bust and makes a comeback, it’s great, when a Trump does it, it’s to be ridiculed. We all know how tough RE is and how cyclical it is. That Trump made billions in RE is more impressive than tech bubbles or hedge funds. It really is impressive.

    Trump’s daughter is more accomplished and smarter than Chelsea Clinton, and far better looking too. Bill Clinton is a weird dude, he has these alpha qualities, women threw themselves at him, so why did Clinton choose to be an anti-male? He’s bizarre, despised by his own kind. I guess Clinton always knew deep down he wasn’t a Trump so he chose this Liberal path where there was no real male competition. I mean who couldn’t stand out when in the millieu of the southbounds of the world? Clinton was the king of the nerds, I guess. And you can see that by who he married, the wench Hillary. Lol.

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  63. Say what you want about Ivanka Trump, but her shoes are awesome. (I mean the ones she sells, although I’m sure the ones she wears are nice, too.)

    Surprised to see helmet header defending her, since she’s married to a member of the tribe (and she converted).

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  64. “she’s married to a member of the tribe (and she converted)”

    She’s a Race Traitor!!!!

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  65. In July 2009, after studying with Rabbi Elie Weinstock from the Modern Orthodox Ramaz School, Trump had an Orthodox conversion to Judaism and took the name Yael. She attests to keeping a kosher diet and observing the Jewish Sabbath, saying in 2015: “We’re pretty observant… It’s been such a great life decision for me… I really find that with Judaism, it creates an amazing blueprint for family connectivity. From Friday to Saturday we don’t do anything but hang out with one another. We don’t make phone calls.”

    BTW HH she is also good friends with Chelsea……….. LOL

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  66. Proven winner: http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/

    Could have taken up finger painting and been wealthier than he is!

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  67. It’s a sign of decline that Trump’s daughter converted to being a Jew. Nothing is perfect anymore. Trump is thrice divorced. Jeb married a Mexican midget. Clintons are a disgrace (we’ve covered that). The Kennedys took great family pictures, better than seeing the Trump brood, but the Kennedys weren’t good either. Obama’s gay buddy Reggie Love wrote about book about what Obama likes for breakfast. England has pedophiles in its House of Lords.

    There is nothing wrong with LePen, Putin or Trump personally compared to all the rest. We really need a Charlemagne.

    I like how we always hear “trump is an idiot” from the Jacks of the world. Yeah….an idiot with a personal 757 airplane…..with gold fixtures. So what do you fly around in? Reminds me of the Neocons and Dems saying that Ron Paul was “stupid”. He was a medical doctor, delivered thousands of babies as an OB/gyn, and was a flight surgeon with military experience in Vietnam.

    Maybe journalists with laptops are stupid.

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  68. ” If I am not mistaken, there are some restrictions on high rises which prevents higher density housing.”

    No. This isn’t true. Thousands of new units and a dozen high rises (or more) are going up right now. Same as Chicago. There is a height restriction in certain parts of the city but that is like building a 50 story building in West Lakeview. Same restrictions there.

    All the rents are luxury and the condos are multi-million dollars.

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  69. “Yeah….an idiot with a personal 757 airplane…..with gold fixtures.”

    Q! E! D!

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  70. “‘[In EsEff], there are some restrictions on high rises which prevents higher density housing.’

    ‘No. This isn’t true.'”

    Go to this page:

    http://library.amlegal.com/nxt/gateway.dll/California/zoningmaps/zoningmaps?f=templates$fn=default.htm$3.0$vid=amlegal:sanfrancisco_ca$sync=1

    click on “Height & Bulk District Maps” on the left, and then HT01.

    See the FiDi and nearby ‘downtown’ EsEff. See how few of the lots are zoned for anything taller than 80 feet. Consider whether 80′ height limits constitute “restrictions on high rises” or not.

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  71. “We all know how tough RE is and how cyclical it is. That Trump made billions in RE . . . really is impressive.”

    True, RE has been cyclical, but can the same forces that drove it up in the past function in the future, in today’s era of peak debt and ZIRP?

    In 1989 the Fed Funds rate was 9%. Three years later Greenspan had cut it to 3%—a huge decline in the “cap rate” that effectively saved Trump and (more importantly) his lenders.

    That little “trick” of cutting the funds rate to prevent asset price from declining worked in 1987, 1990-92, 1998, 2001-2003, 2008-2015. But what’s admirable about it?

    The real (after-inflation) money market interest rate has been negative 2% for seven years, saving the bacon of people like Trump (and his lenders) at the expense of savers.

    What is admirable about that?

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  72. “The real (after-inflation) money market interest rate”

    No one gives a shit about that Wojo–we only care about nominal numbers, and the nominal numbers say that Trump’s a genius for under performing the S&P, and flushing 90%+ of other peoples money thru Trump Casinos.

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  73. Y’all just a bunch of haters.

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  74. “See the FiDi and nearby ‘downtown’ EsEff. See how few of the lots are zoned for anything taller than 80 feet. Consider whether 80? height limits constitute “restrictions on high rises” or not.”

    Please stop anon(tfo). You don’t know what you’re talking about. San Francisco, maybe more than any other city in America, takes “views” and, yes, “height” very seriously.

    Every city has zoning restrictions. We have restrictions on what can be built on the Michigan Avenue historic “wall” along Grant Park. San Francisco has zoning restrictions on what can be built on its waterfront. It also has restrictions on what can be built on certain ground (like landfill) versus rock. They have this thing called “earthquakes.”

    They are building dozens of high rises right now. In fact, they are building thousands of housing units in the Mission Bay development and over by the old Candlestick Park. Yes- their neighborhoods have restrictions. It’s a small city. Their “downtown” isn’t nearly as big as ours. There are restrictions on height in areas like SOMA but, again, that is no different than someone wanting to build a 30 story high rise in the West Loop by United Center. So far- those just haven’t been approved.

    There are architectural and urban planning reasons why they aren’t building Hong Kong by the Bay. But to say they’re not building high rises or dense housing where they can is just wrong.

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  75. “You don’t know what you’re talking about.”

    This is the exchange that elicited the response:

    ““‘[In EsEff], there are some restrictions on high rises which prevents higher density housing.’

    ‘No. This isn’t true.’””

    A blanket “this isn’t true” is reductionist. Is there a substantial difference in the “restrictions” in EsEff vs the restrictions almost anywhere else (Houston, DC and Manhattan being notable exceptions, for different reasons)? Nope.

    But the *review process* for getting a variance or zoning change in EsEff has been, is, and will continue to be one of, if not the most, challenging in the US. *FAR* more difficult that in Chicago, or LA, or San Diego.

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  76. not very smart to build gigantic tall skinny skyscrapers in a pretty high risk earthquake zone on top of soft soils (which apparently make the shaking worse)

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/soiltype/

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  77. “Donald Trump’s big tent

    The GOP should stop fooling itself. Trump is reaching more than just undereducated, angry white men.”

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/trump-supporters-big-tent-217481#.2gym7mj:wZ3k

    “Republicans explain away their unwelcome poll-leader by dismissing his supporters as a loud but narrow network of angry white men and celebrity chasers.

    It’s not true. A POLITICO review of private and public polling data and interviews with GOP pollsters shows a coalition that certainly begins with conservative, blue-collar men now extends to pro-choice Republicans, independents and even registered Democrats unnerved, primarily, by illegal immigration.

    Indeed, the uncomfortable truth, for the pundits and fellow Republicans who turned their noses up at Trump, is that his appeal has spread over seven months so far beyond a rabble-rousing, anti-establishment rump to encompass the very elements of the American electorate the GOP has been eager to reach. And while it’s no majority, it’s a bigger group than anything the rest of the fragmented Republican field has galvanized.”

    again! I am not a Trump voter (I’m a Huckabee or sanders guy)but it’s so obvious to everyone that Trump is the guy. And after Hiliary is indicted in the next few weeks, it’s a Trump presidency.

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  78. Mike Huckabee? seriously?

    The guy who thinks that 10 year old rape victims shouldn’t be allowed to have abortions?

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  79. “Housing prices are soaring in so many cities that they are outpacing the ability of “regular” workers to live there.”

    Hitler agrees with you!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53GcLx1JLXY

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  80. just want to say, nice call homedelete

    “2016 is in the bag already for Trump. I was telling people this privately before he even announced and here we are months later and Trump is still defying gravity. “

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  81. As promised, my wife and I are seriously discussing moving out of the country in 2017 with our infant son.

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  82. “As promised, my wife and I are seriously discussing moving out of the country in 2017 with our infant son.”

    2 things:
    *you will find its a bit more difficult (and expensive) than you think to do this

    *the grass is always greener

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  83. buh-bye fred! go be a goof in some other anglo-saxon/teutonic utopia that also struggles with populist issues like america.

    also i was joking about huckabee. i liked sanders as a D but i did pull trump in the election because my preferred GOP candidate (not Jeb!) was out of the race by Illinois.

    and i was right about Trump too. and god willing he will truly make america great again!

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  84. “As promised, my wife and I are seriously discussing moving out of the country in 2017 with our infant son.”

    But you won’t….

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  85. “god willing he will truly make america great again!”

    He’s going to have a hard time deporting more people than Obama did.

    And eras of protectionist trade policy have corresponded with the low points of the American century.

    And the POTUS (and Congress) have a helluva lot less (positive) influence over the economy than they like to think.

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  86. “He’s going to have a hard time deporting more people than Obama did. ”

    I hope he at least gives it the old college try – and I give him credit for self-deportations too!

    “And eras of protectionist trade policy have corresponded with the low points of the American century.”‘

    You could also say that free trade policies have been corresponded with the low points in the American century (i.e. now!)

    “And the POTUS (and Congress) have a helluva lot less (positive) influence over the economy than they like to think.”

    Everyone knows that politicians cannot control the weather, but they sure as hell can tell which way the wind is blowing…

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  87. “He’s going to have a hard time deporting more people than Obama did.”

    Obama has deported 2.5 million through 2015. We don’t have 2016 numbers yet. Bush deported 2 million before him. Trump said on 60 Minutes he will deport 2 to 3 million. It is in line with what his two predecessors have done.

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