This Southport 3-Bedroom Is $50,000 Under the 2003 Price: 1400 W. Byron
We last chattered about this 3-bedroom at 1400 W. Byron in the Southport neighborhood of Lakeview in March 2011.
See our prior chatter here.
Our March 2011 chatter was interesting.
Many of you thought this wasn’t a bad deal priced $5k below the 2003 purchase price of $390,000 even though it is a slightly below grade unit (i.e. a “garden” apartment.)
Homedelete was preaching doom and gloom, however, and others attacked him as simply being too pessimistic. At least one thought the market would bottom later that year. We again also chattered about the rent v. own equation.
JJJ guessed this would ultimately sell for $365,000.
But it still sits on the market and has now been reduced another $45,000 to $339,900.
If you recall, the unit is entirely on one floor and has 3 exposures, including south.
The kitchen has granite counter tops and 42 inch maple cabinets and white appliances.
The master bath is marble with a double vanity.
Built in 1999, it has central air, in-unit washer/dryer and parking is included.
What price will it take to finally sell this property in 2012?
[And yes- the Redfin 2003 sales price of $260,000 is WRONG.]
Dana DiPasquale at @Properties still has the listing. See the pictures here.
Unit #1E: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, no square footage listed
- Sold in February 1999 for $245,000
- Sold in April 2003 for $390,000
- Originally listed in July 2008 for $434,500
- Reduced
- Withdrawn in November 2009 at $429,500
- Was listed in March 2011 at $385,000
- Reduced
- Currently listed for $339,990 (parking included)
- Assessments of $130 a month
- Taxes of $4395
- Central Air
- In-unit washer/dryer
- Bedroom #1: 14×14
- Bedroom #2: 12×10
- Bedroom #3: 12×10
- Living room: 29×18
- Kitchen: 15×10
That’s just a really ugly condo.
I read the previous chatter. How could I have been so foolish to suggest $330,000? I might have been high/drunk/tweaked out or something. $280,000.
I agree, HD. Over $300k to live in a basement? Only during the bubble would someone have paid nearly $400. As someone said in the prior chat, this is the worse half of a duplex down. I think it is an epic fail at any price.
Being in Blaine will set some kind of floor that’s higher than in other schools. Not sure what that floor is, but it’ll go higher than it would if it were a couple blocks south in Hamilton or north in Ravenswood.
How many people live in lakeview? How many children attend Blaine? How many families are interested in buying a 3 bedroom underground REO foreclosure to send their children to Blaine? In my opinion, the # of people who will pay a higher price for this unit due to Blaine is very negligible, because anyone who wants to send their child to Blaine will not be purchasing this unit. They’ll be moving to Lemont or wherever and buying a 3 bedroom out there instead. There are only a handful of neithborhood where the CPS school actually matters, and it only matters in as much for the SFH prices. But given that most of what exists in these areas are now mostly luxury SFH, it doesn’t really seem to matter that much either.
Real estate selling/buying/pricing is based on factual and emotional factors. If we review these factors, we will see that pricing/buying is going to be going up.
Facts:
1. The economy is improving (unemployment numbers are down, stock market is up, etc.)
2. Many of the foreclosed properties are crappy and buyers are realizing that they are not all “deals” – they are going back to the better, non-distressed homes.
3. Creative financing is coming back (many lending institutions are exploring different ways of marketing their loans).
4. Americans have spent the last three years paying down their debts and are in better financial shape (as a whole) than in 2006.
5. Rates are at historic lows. Everyone knows that rates will increase in the next five years.
Emotional factors:
1. Frugal fatigue is at its highest (people are tired of saving money and waiting to buy/move). This applies more to buyers than sellers because the sellers are already set in their homes (used to them) and, although, they may want to move, the impetus is usually not as strong as buyers (eg HD, Bob, etc.).
2. People are feeling very good about the economy (bc of the unemployment numbers, stock market, media, low rates etc.). Although the basis of this emotion may be grounded in false perceptions, the emotion is absolutely true. This is going to cause sellers to price high this spring and hold on to their prices and will cause buyers to panic and buy.
These conditions make it ripe for housing prices to absolutely stabilize (at a minimum) and rise modestly. There is no way that housing is going to continue to go down in this economic climate – it just ain’t gonna happen
ha from the listing… “BUILDERS CANT BUILD THIS SPACE ANYORE, ”
thank goodness for that!
“Former home of Tom Ricketts**!!!!!!!!!!!”
**No, not that one.
How many people live in lakeview? Around 80,000
How many children attend Blaine? About 1,000
How many families are interested in buying a 3 bedroom underground REO foreclosure to send their children to Blaine? Only takes one.
Come on clio – unemployment numbers are only down because Uncle Sugar has continued to cut the denominator (number of people in the labor market) used to calculate the rate. If you include all the new grads (who don’t go into the unemployment rate unless they have jobs), plus the folks who have gotten kicked out of the calculation, plus all of the Juan Marshall baristas, there are probably more unemployed people today than there were 3 years ago when the world was ending.
PermaBear – you can’t stop a moving train – and the “feeling” on the street is that things are getting better. Dont take my word for it – gauge it yourself with your family, friends, coworkers – you will see what I am saying is true. Oh, and also, if you want to present a “balanced argument” you have to factor in the millions of people retiring every year – remember, the baby boomers are aged between 50-67 right now – and nobody seems to factor in the impact of massive retirement leaves in the next decade. It is unbelievable!!
Yeah, it takes only one!! Great argument to sell! Hahahha
Brilliant analysis, Clio!
I particularly like your detailed analysis on the euro-zone crisis and the effects of austerity measure on developed economies. Clearly the global economy is out of the woods and your breathtaking analysis has proved it. Bravo!
“Brilliant analysis, Clio!”
Thanks!! Finally, you guys are beginning to understand!!!!
Yeah, I really hate the “it only takes one” argument.
It only takes one winning lottery ticket and you are set for life!
It only takes one great stock pick and your portfolio will increase by 50% in a year!
Of course all of those things are true, but they don’t say a damn thing about the probabilities of those event happening. What should sellers (and buyers) be thinking about? The best-case scenario with a near-zero probability of happening or the most likely scenario given current market conditions?
But as long as we’re here, let’s play the negative side of that coin:
It only takes one failed major equity brokerage for the current exchange model to implode and your 401k to go to zero!
It only takes one loose nuke from the former USSR to level Cleveland!
It only takes one big asteroid to end life on earth!
Don’t worry about those probabilities…I’m sure it’ll all work out.
Hitting the reset button on Cleveland’s urban core is on the negative side of the coin?
It’s not my favorite space, but there’s legit demand in this location.
All-in cost around $1700/month. I think the unit rents around 2k pretty easy. Not an ideal cap rate, but in the current sub-3% rate environment I think someone will bite.
Unless there’s water issues, no way this falls below 300k.
“Oh, and also, if you want to present a “balanced argument” you have to factor in the millions of people retiring every year – remember, the baby boomers are aged between 50-67 right now – and nobody seems to factor in the impact of massive retirement leaves in the next decade. It is unbelievable!!”
I’d say. You likely can’t get anything right about this correction if you fail to factor in the impact of a massive selloff of retirement “assets” to buyers consisting in no small part of edudebted younger workers toiling at lower wages with increasing medical, food and energy burdens.
” Oh, and also, if you want to present a “balanced argument” you have to factor in the millions of people retiring every year – remember, the baby boomers are aged between 50-67 right now – and nobody seems to factor in the impact of massive retirement leaves in the next decade.”
Clio – HD has been hammering home the boomers retiring for years now and my “US is going to somewhat follow Japan” thesis follows HD’s way of thinking. Boomers’ consumption has already peaked. Boomers will need to sell assets into retirement, which will put additional demographic pressures on housing prices for McMansions (which younger generations haven’t really warmed up to) as well as stocks and financial instruments.
Boomers are also going to siphon hundreds of billions of dollars a year out of the pockets of youngsters like me and HD when they hit retirement. Sure, job opportunities will open up for us youngsters, but Uncle Sugar and Pat Quinn will demand well north of 50% of our salaries in exchange for the privilege of contributing our labor to the labor market. I guess I fail to see how the impact of these mass retirements that will decrease demand for the things I own (real estate and stocks) and will increase my taxes is good for me. Please enlighten me.
” I guess I fail to see how the impact of these mass retirements that will decrease demand for the things I own (real estate and stocks) and will increase my taxes is good for me. Please enlighten me.”
Certain industries (think healthcare, service oriented businesses, retirement homes, etc.) are going to EXPLODE over the next ten to twenty years. This boom will trickle into other industries (including the legal, real estate/housing, food, etc.). There definitely will be a shift, but if you understand the demographics of the US and the mentality of Americans and if you are adaptable, you will more than succeed in the next twenty years.
Doesn’t this “trickle down” fall under #1 below? Wake me up when (IF) there’s a new one.
G (December 24, 2008, 8:53 am)
“That’s another for the market savior list.
1. baby boomers
2. foreigners
3. 2nd home buyers
4. the rich
5. new law grads
6. pro athletes
7. parents of DePaul students
8. 3rd home buyers
Don’t worry ponzi-scheming bubble-maniacs, help is on the way!”
I think “positive thinking” will go a long way in all of your personal lives. 2012 is a great time to change. Honestly, it may sound stupid and idiotic and “ostrich-like” but it WILL improve your quality of life. Y’all should try it for a week and you will see the difference (seriously, ask yourself what this negativity – even if it based in truth- is doing or has done for you). You are not going to change the market, so just concentrate on the good things and you will open a whole new chapter in your lives….
I agree with Clio re. his comment about the economy.
Clio, it’s easy to be optimistic when you’re part of the one percent. The one percent is doing great.
I agree that there should be nothing but positive thinking about the ongoing increase in housing affordability. This is a good thing that will positively affect us all in the long run by freeing capital for more useful investment.
“Certain industries (think healthcare, service oriented businesses, retirement homes, etc.) are going to EXPLODE over the next ten to twenty years. This boom will trickle into other industries (including the legal, real estate/housing, food, etc.). There definitely will be a shift, but if you understand the demographics of the US and the mentality of Americans and if you are adaptable, you will more than succeed in the next twenty years.”
I have no fears about succeeding, but those exploding service industries of healthcare and nursing homes aren’t going to be built with private capital in mind, they will be built with skimming dollars out of Medicare and Medicaid in mind for the most part. And the reward for success will be the government allowing anyone who makes a decent living to retain upwards of 40% of their earnings, lest the whining boomers would be deprived of their Cadillac quality healthcare. As Japan has siphoned off substantial chunks of GDP from young to old to fund the growth of those service industries geared toward old people, has their economy improved?
“These conditions make it ripe for housing prices to absolutely stabilize (at a minimum) and rise modestly. There is no way that housing is going to continue to go down in this economic climate – it just ain’t gonna happen.”
Too soon to conclude the economy is on the right track and that home prices will stabilize. If so, it would be perfect timing for Obama. However, even if home prices do stop falling, I don’t see much risk in continuing to wait before buying. A sharp rebound off the bottom would be very surprising.
I really laughed at this comment as it surely couldn’t have been serious. Buyers will panic and buy in 2012? It almost sounds like it’s a bad thing here, as panic can’t be considered good. This sells for $325K at the lowest unless there’s issues with the unit beyond what we can see.
“Emotional factors:
1. Frugal fatigue is at its highest (people are tired of saving money and waiting to buy/move). This applies more to buyers than sellers because the sellers are already set in their homes (used to them) and, although, they may want to move, the impetus is usually not as strong as buyers (eg HD, Bob, etc.).
2. People are feeling very good about the economy (bc of the unemployment numbers, stock market, media, low rates etc.). Although the basis of this emotion may be grounded in false perceptions, the emotion is absolutely true. This is going to cause sellers to price high this spring and hold on to their prices and will cause buyers to panic and buy. “
yeah you’ll be laughing and wishing you could be buying for the first time when the stock market is up 20% from today and mortgage rates are 20% less than today as well, and housing is 10% less than today, just a mere year or so from now
“I think “positive thinking” will go a long way in all of your personal lives.”
That is correct Clio. I am going to try it. Tonight I take some risk and splurge on myself. Tonight I’ll super size it and wait for the butterfly effect to take things from there……
“Clio, it’s easy to be optimistic when you’re part of the one percent. The one percent is doing great.”
I think you are right. After 3 years on the market, look at just went under contract!! Things ARE getting better! http://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Brook/707-Deer-Trail-Ln-60523/home/18082614
Don’t just take my word for it – look at what just went under contract in the past 2 weeks (and it is definitely not the peak buying season).
Clio is so positive he needs a daily regimrn of retrovirals.
Wow after being on the market for 1200+ days Clio….great example…
“Wow after being on the market for 1200+ days Clio….great example…”
benji – that is precisely my point – people are starting to come out of the shadows and are starting to spend (after several years of standing on the sidelines) – again, don’t take my word for it – check out the places going under contract – lots of activity in the past couple of weeks (which, typically are dead). This is just a precursor of things to come….
Good to see the stock market do well the first trading day of the year. We will see if this is good news for 2012 or if it’s just pure speculation on improved growth into 2012. My prediction is 2.5% US GDP growth, which is better than the 1.8-1.9% growth from 2011. Not sure how this translates into real estate buying terms however, and how it affects the market.
“people are starting to come out of the shadows and are starting to spend ”
My wife just came from the mall and said it was the busiest that she has ever seen it. Record trade numbers. 43% increase in exports to China… not sure why you guys are still up there.. maybe it’s to see the rest of the bill of rights destroyed? some kind of masochistic pleasure?
“My wife just came from the mall and said it was the busiest that she has ever seen it. Record trade numbers. 43% increase in exports to China… not sure why you guys are still up there.. maybe it’s to see the rest of the bill of rights destroyed? some kind of masochistic pleasure?”
Ze- you keep saying this but the Brazilian economic data doesn’t support it. GDP growth has already slowed by about half since 2010 (from over 7% to just over 3%). It’s expected to be below 3% this year (depending on whether or not China has a hard landing.) The government is so concerned about consumer spending it cut the consumption tax on refrigerators, washing machines and stoves to try to encourage consumers to keep spending.
I’m not saying Brazil’s economy is going into the dumper. But it’s clearly slowing.
“lots of activity in the past couple of weeks (which, typically are dead). This is just a precursor of things to come….”
I haven’t seen this in the city. Sure, there are some things selling. But that happens all year long.
G- has there been “lots of activity” in the past couple of weeks in the GZ neighborhoods? Are we seeing a spike in property sales suddenly?
The properties I’ve been watching have been pending for FOREVER. It’s taking months to close some of these.
Hey Gringo – the reasons the mall was so busy:
Post-holiday sales with plenty of merchandise super-discounted;
Mild weather giving an impetus to folks’ getting out there and spending their gift money/cards;
Kids home from school and doing the mall-rat thing to get away from the ‘rents;
Wives and other loved ones wanting to get away from their guys’ endless hogging of the TV to watch all those sports.
The state of the general economy, in other words, has little to do with retail “turnout” between 12/26 and 1/2.
“Hey Gringo – the reasons the mall was so busy:”
ChiTownGal, he’s talking about Brazil.
This unit is approaching cheap living quarters for a dual-income family that feels compelled to remain in “Green Zone”, but the notion of a basement flat on Southport strikes me as foolishness.
“Ze- you keep saying this but the Brazilian economic data doesn’t support it. ”
http://www.destakjornal.com.br/readContent.aspx?eid=2159&id=15,122037
35% y/o/y on m2!!! I did not fabricate the import/export increases either 🙂 Tourism up double digits here too. That one I expect to hold for quite some time to come. Hotels were 100% booked for New Years. Parking was R$250 per night. Not a single incident for the first time ever. Totally peaceful New Years… Ze went swimming in the ocean… Spoke to the manager at a design store that did my cabinets and he said he is up 60% y/o/y.
As for the taxes. You need to pay attention to what it is the gov’t is trying to accomplish in order to understand. Otherwise you risk making some error based on single data points. Since you first mentioned that, import car prices had taxes raised over 30%. Recently, credit card transactions registered externally have a new 6.8% tax. If I bring in money it is now up to 6%. Of course I can return it to the states for 0%. And the gov’t has the discretion to instantaneously move either up to 25%, effectively controlling inflow and outflows. They micro-manage down here and want a relatively Shakesperean Balance of trade (neither borrower nor lender be… but definitely lend over borrow) and they want spending stimulated on domestic good. thus the lowering of taxes on domestically produced household items. What’s is also interresting is they do not expect growth externally from the U.S. or Europe but more from neighboring Mercosul countries. This is actually where the tourism increases are all coming, as well.
Also had an interesting convo with some bankers down here and one constant theme was the lack of exposure to European sovereign debt. Rates of return are too high internally to have sought them out externally.
Most importantly for me. I always had this opinion. When you have something on you have a good feel, when you have it on the wrong way- your feel is 100 times better. I just watched my brother and sister in law get caught short legging a housing spread and it couldn’t have been more obvious how bad of a position they were in.
Things simply have not turned yet.
ze you need to lay off the weed, the BRIC’s are screwed
“G- has there been “lots of activity” in the past couple of weeks in the GZ neighborhoods? Are we seeing a spike in property sales suddenly?”
There is a spike in contracts, but it is not consistent across the GZ or other areas covered often on CC. Keep in mind when making these contract comparisons that current contracts are inflated by many that will fall out, an effect that is always present, but to an even greater extent in today’s market with many short sale contracts that aren’t going anywhere.
City of Chicago contracts for 12/16/11-12/31/11 were up 25.6% YOY, but the median list price of those going under contract declined 19.1% to $129,450. This is most likely due to another wave of distressed sales.
The much bigger contract spike was in the suburbs:
City of Chicago up 25.6% (median list price down 19.1%)
Cook County Suburbs up 58.4% (median list price down 14.4%)
Lake County up 60.0% (median list price down 6.3%)
DuPage County up 62.6% (median unchanged)
Attached and Detached SFH contracts, 12/16/xx to 12/31/xx, with 2011 YOY change:
City of Chicago
2011 800 25.6%
2010 637
2009 699
2008 477
2007 687
2006 635
Lincoln Park
2011 24 4.3%
2010 23
2009 29
2008 21
2007 17
2006 35
Lake View
2011 39 62.5%
2010 24
2009 29
2008 29
2007 44
2006 49
Near North
2011 56 -17.6%
2010 68
2009 94
2008 48
2007 116
2006 59
North Center
2011 7 40.0%
2010 5
2009 14
2008 9
2007 9
2006 8
Near South
2011 24 84.6%
2010 13
2009 10
2008 10
2007 104
2006 26
Loop
2011 30 -18.9%
2010 37
2009 13
2008 23
2007 38
2006 13
Uptown
2011 19 111.1%
2010 9
2009 13
2008 6
2007 24
2006 23
Edgewater
2011 24 41.2%
2010 17
2009 17
2008 10
2007 19
2006 21
Lincoln Square
2011 9 125.0%
2010 4
2009 7
2008 4
2007 9
2006 9
Logan Square
2011 12 -20.0%
2010 15
2009 15
2008 9
2007 18
2006 18
West Town
2011 31 -6.1%
2010 33
2009 28
2008 19
2007 27
2006 37
Near West Side
2011 40 90.5%
2010 21
2009 43
2008 26
2007 24
2006 32
Avondale
2011 11 120.0%
2010 5
2009 2
2008 3
2007 6
2006 4
Irving Park
2011 11 -15.4%
2010 13
2009 11
2008 9
2007 6
2006 12
Hyde Park
2011 7 40.0%
2010 5
2009 3
2008 3
2007 4
2006 7
South Shore
2011 15 50.0%
2010 10
2009 7
2008 5
2007 3
2006 9
Douglas
2011 7 133.3%
2010 3
2009 1
2008 0
2007 2
2006 3
Kenwood
2011 3 -25.0%
2010 4
2009 0
2008 1
2007 3
2006 11
Cook County
2011 1,719 35.8%
2010 1,266
2009 1,356
2008 897
2007 1,159
2006 1,291
Cook County Suburbs
2011 919 58.7%
2010 579
2009 657
2008 420
2007 472
2006 656
Oak Park
2011 17 13.3%
2010 15
2009 12
2008 10
2007 11
2006 12
Park Ridge
2011 17 70.0%
2010 10
2009 14
2008 4
2007 3
2006 6
Highland Park
2011 13 85.7%
2010 7
2009 4
2008 9
2007 8
2006 4
Lake County
2011 240 45.5%
2010 165
2009 163
2008 132
2007 163
2006 187
Lake Forest
2011 8 60.0%
2010 5
2009 8
2008 3
2007 9
2006 8
DuPage County
2011 322 62.6%
2010 198
2009 201
2008 143
2007 171
2006 229
Hinsdale
2011 9 -10.0%
2010 10
2009 6
2008 1
2007 8
2006 5
Oak Brook
2011 7 40.0%
2010 5
2009 4
2008 4
2007 1
2006 1
“ze you need to lay off the weed, the BRIC’s are screwed”
1- I am definitely not about to do that.
2- Maybe they will be. It is simply not what I am seeing *here* at the current time. Furthest thing from it.
Btw.. you get the LR yet?
I posted the wrong version without this correction:
CORRECTION:
Cook County Suburbs
2010 was 629, not 579
Cook County Suburbs up 46.1% (median list price down 14.4%)
Thanks G – I knew that the houses under contract were really starting to heat up – your numbers show that quite nicely. I wonder what the spring holds in store…..
“I wonder what the spring holds in store…..”
Being an optimist myself, I am positive about lower prices.
“Being an optimist myself, I am positive about lower prices.”
whatever it takes to clear the inventory……
Contracts seem to have picked up but new supply seems to trickle onto the market. However I have seen some interesting new price lows; not necessarily for desirable properties, but it shows that the builders are no longer snapping up the cheapest lots for mcmansions.
“it shows that the builders are no longer snapping up the cheapest lots for mcmansions.”
Except in the Coonley area. Check 1938 and 1958 Leavitt, both built in the last couple of months.
yes: except in the coonley area, and probably a handful of other submarkets.
“whatever it takes to clear the inventory……”
Inventory will likely increase due to price declines pushing more homemoaners further underwater. Also, pent up sellers with equity are beginning to realize they need to sell asap because of a growing, but misplaced, pessimism that “real estate only goes down.” Of course, this is a reason for optimism for now, but simply impossible forever since prices will go up after the inevitable overcorrection (but that’s a long way off.)
G – I too thought that inventory would go up; but it’s not. It’s actually going down. The shadow inventory is there but it’s not materializing. And the banks are pushing the can down the road. I had a client the other day who tried to walk away from his $2000 a month mortgage and he got a letter in the mail after “004” months (as the form letter said) offering to reduce his mortgage to $1,100 per month for the next 12 months, after which instead of being $8,000 in arrears he would be $19,000 in arrears; and Wells offered no guarantee that the homemoaner (I like that) would be offered another forbearance or loan modification in the future. The letter reaked of desperation – Wells was like “please pay us something, anything, rather than walk away”. And I think the clients are going to take the deal; and Wells sucessfully pushes another foreclosure another year into the future. and yet the homes I have favorited on redfin are still $200+ a sq ft and still need $70,000 in work to bring the home into the 21st century. Amazing times we live in now, truly amazing.
And as homeowners go further and further underwater, fewer homeowners will even try to list their home. Many will try to hang on as long as they can; and they seem to be able to get by month to month; and as they give up, one by one, the banks will kick that can down the road further and further. If anything, the lack of inventory will keep prices from crashing further. I’ve always thought that home prices would realistically drop at least 50% from the peak in many areas (many, but not all), including in the upper middle class areas; many who would otherwise sell are not selling, and the lack of inventory is appalling. Sure there are XXX for sale in 60646 or whatever but it’s 80% of the same damn houses that were listed 6 months or even a year ago. As those homes sell, and are replaced by fewer homes, prices will fall at a slower rate; I would expect a second big crash if the shadow inventory were to hit the market.
“G – I too thought that inventory would go up; but it’s not. It’s actually going down. The shadow inventory is there but it’s not materializing. And the banks are pushing the can down the road. I had a client the other day who tried to walk away from his $2000 a month mortgage and he got a letter in the mail after “004? months (as the form letter said) offering to reduce his mortgage to $1,100 per month for the next 12 months, after which instead of being $8,000 in arrears he would be $19,000 in arrears; and Wells offered no guarantee that the homemoaner (I like that) would be offered another forbearance or loan modification in the future. The letter reaked of desperation – Wells was like “please pay us something, anything, rather than walk away”. And I think the clients are going to take the deal; and Wells sucessfully pushes another foreclosure another year into the future. and yet the homes I have favorited on redfin are still $200+ a sq ft and still need $70,000 in work to bring the home into the 21st century. Amazing times we live in now, truly amazing.”
Excellent anecdote, HD. I appreciate your sharing of stories like this. Meanwhile, in some sub basement under a Wells Fargo mortgage service center in Des Moines or Minneapolis, a desperate WF accountant dusts off a file for a randomly selected mortgage and shows some 23 year old kid working for KPMG that the mortgage is still performing. And the can is kicked for another audit cycle.
“a desperate WF accountant dusts off a file for a randomly selected mortgage and shows some 23 year old kid working for KPMG that the mortgage is still performing. ”
At $2k/month, that’s a WFB-agent loan that belongs to a RMBS, whether Fan/Fred or otherwise. Ain’t on their books.
yes Ze, I love it as does the wife
Yeah I don’t think its going to be on Wells book but who knows, they got authoroty pretty quickly to offer the forbearance. But that’s my point, there are so many of these out there, it is such a scary time to over pay for a home. I have a feeling inventory this spring is going to be abysmal, and half the new lisitngs will relistings of homes that expired over the fall/winter. I’m seeing a handful of those already. One had a whopping 1.5pc price reduction after being off the market for 3 months.
“I would expect a second big crash if the shadow inventory were to hit the market.”
See above: City of Chicago contracts for 12/16/11-12/31/11 were up 25.6% YOY, but the median list price of those going under contract declined 19.1% to $129,450. This is most likely due to another wave of distressed sales.
November 2011 median sale price was $160,000. December 2011 median sale price was $156,000.
The phenomenon continues!!! Everyday I look at what goes under contract and this week has been unbelievable. Several properties which had been languishing went under contract this week. G’s numbers from the last two weeks of December support what I am saying – and I think the increase will be even greater during the first two weeks of January. This is crazy.
“See above: City of Chicago contracts for 12/16/11-12/31/11 were up 25.6% YOY, but the median list price of those going under contract declined 19.1% to $129,450. This is most likely due to another wave of distressed sales.”
This is why I named the distressed sales as the #1 story of 2012. They clearly ARE the market now. People not selling at a distress price really aren’t selling.
Thanks for all the data, G, about contracts the last 2 weeks. We’ll see how many of them close. It certainly IS an interesting phenomena. In some locations, there were more contracts those weeks than during the boom times. Go figure. But, yes, the median price is also coming down quickly which means quite a few of those $75,000 condos are selling now (more than the $600,000 townhouses.)
It’s good to work through some of this inventory that has been on the market, literally, for years.