Market Conditions: Chicago Sales Soar 21.9% in October with Median Price Jumping 14.5%
The Illinois Association of Realtors is finally out with the October home sales results after having some database and technology issues.
The market remained red-hot this fall.
The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales increase 21.9 percent with 2,541 sales in October, compared to 2,084 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in October was $315,000, up 14.5 percent from October 2019.
Out of the 2541 sales, single family home sales were up 20.1% to 1,122 while condos/townhouses were up 23.4% to 1419.
Thanks to G for all the data on October sales going back to 1997:
October Chicago sfh/condo/th sales and median
- 1997 1,731 $129,900
- 1998 1,855 $138,000
- 1999 1,978 $159,500
- 2000 2,106 $174,710
- 2001 2,177 $200,000
- 2002 2,503 $215,000
- 2003 2,996 $236,000
- 2004 2,651 $241,000
- 2005 2,846 $268,500
- 2006 2,630 $278,000
- 2007 2,007 $285,000
- 2008 1,564 $261,000
- 2009 2,068 $215,000
- 2010 1,225 $183,000
- 2011 1,324 $162,000 (44% short/REO sales)
- 2012 2,009 $175,000
- 2013: 2,231 $218,500
- 2014: 2,128 $236,000
- 2015: 2,173 $240,000
- 2016: 2,046 $260,100
- 2017: 2,109 $260,000
- 2018: 2,108 $271,500
- 2019: 2,084 $275,000
- 2020: 2,541 $315,000
“Demand remains strong, with continued year-over-year increases in closed sales and median sales prices, coupled with a large drop in the days on market. While every neighborhood is reacting differently to the pandemic, overall, single family homes continue to be popular with homebuyers and condos are also keeping pace,” said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and vice president of brokerage services of Coldwell Banker Realty. “For those looking to move or sell, these are all signs of a healthy market as we move into the winter months.”
In Illinois, sales were up 34.9% and in the Chicago Metro area, sales were up 39% year-over-year.
Statewide, the number of days on the market fell 17.3% to 43 days.
In Chicago, days on the market fell to 34 from 42.
Statewide, inventory plunged 34.4% year-over-year to 39,419 from 60,127 a year ago.
But in Chicago, inventory was actually up 4.3% year-over-year to 10,579 properties from 10,138 a year ago.
“The Illinois housing market continues to be resilient with a spike in October home sales and an uptick in home prices,” said Sue Miller, president of Illinois REALTORS® and designated managing broker of Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group in McHenry. “Buyer demand remains strong, but inventory is still an issue. This is a great time for homeowners who have been thinking of selling to put a for sale sign in the yard.”
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.83% in October, down from 2.89% in September and significantly lower than 3.69% in October of 2019.
When will this hot market end?
Will the COVID outbreaks put a damper on winter sales?
Illinois home sales jump 34.9 percent in October; inventory continues to decline [Illinois Association of Realtors, press release, December 1, 2020]
“In Illinois, sales were up 34.9% and in the Chicago Metro area, sales were up 39% year-over-year.“
What are the figures for the city proper?
It looks like Chicago was up 21.9% YOY and Chicago metro was up 39% YOY. Suburbs are hawt.
“Will the COVID outbreaks put a damper on winter sales?”
No. October is when virus cases/hospitalization increase spikes were gaining the publics attention again. I would have expected some flatlining if this made the public wary.
The other factor – Winter is coming. Staying hunkered down in the city for another 5 months with everything closed with winter on our doorstep in a small apartment/condo sounds pretty awful. The last remaining city amenity – neighborhood park is now also “shut-down”. Stir crazy residents don’t have much else to do these days. Might as well buy a home and get more space. If you were going to move “soon” might as well do it now.
“What are the figures for the city proper?”
From the post:
“The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales increase 21.9 percent with 2,541 sales in October, compared to 2,084 a year ago”
“Out of the 2541 sales, single family home sales were up 20.1% to 1,122 while condos/townhouses were up 23.4% to 1419.”
So, what are the YTD comparisons?
Is this actually a meaningful increase, or just continued time shifting of “buying season”?
“From the post:
“The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales increase 21.9 percent with 2,541 sales in October, compared to 2,084 a year ago”
“Out of the 2541 sales, single family home sales were up 20.1% to 1,122 while condos/townhouses were up 23.4% to 1419.”
I was asking for the YOY for the city proper. The text Sabrina copied from Crains is jacked up on my screen
“So, what are the YTD comparisons?”
From Garys data and If memory serves this should put us even with ’19 but lagging ’18
Shit nevermind – I think misread the Metro & State data as sales over the last 12 mo
After a full winter with everything shut down, I won’t be surprised to see a large exodus from downtown in the spring. So many of the things that make it worth tolerating the winters here will be unavailable and being stuck in a high rise for months on end sounds painful. Even building amenities are mostly closed or restricted.
For the 12 months ending November 30 (and November data is incomplete) it’s looking like Chicago is down 2.1%. We should end the year down less than 2%. The monthly YOY gains are slowing down. I’ll be posting a monthly update on Monday.
FYI – Vaccines are coming. Hospitals are expecting them by Christmas. How will that impact the city if we are able to vaccinate a lot of the at risk populations by Memorial Day?
“Staying hunkered down in the city for another 5 months with everything closed with winter on our doorstep in a small apartment/condo sounds pretty awful. The last remaining city amenity – neighborhood park is now also “shut-down”. ”
Not sure what you’re referring to regarding the parks. The parks, lakefront, 606, etc are all open.
“Even building amenities are mostly closed or restricted.”
Not true. Building gyms are open and, in my building, they have actually kept the rooftop social space open (it usually closes for winter now) to provide more space for residents.
Winter comes to the burbs, just like it comes to the city. With vaccines on the horizon, well-loved city amenities will begin to return to life. And the burbs will remain…..the burbs.
Love your header photo, Sabrina!
I wish I were in a position to buy a couple of downtown properties right now, or even a couple in Lakeview, because prices for condos have really dropped in the past few months, doubtless due to COVID panic. Since I feel very sure that the vaccines will be in general circulation by Spring, I also feel sure that downtown property will be “hawt” again by summer.
On the other hand, millions of mortgages will come out of forbearance, but I doubt that the wealthy downtown zip codes will be much affected by the wave of defaults and foreclosures that will surely result. Downtown condo buyers are wealthier, older, and far less likely to be either mortgaged to their eyeballs, or to be at risk of losing their incomes,than folks in more ordinary circumstances. It’s the suburbs, especially middle and lower-middle income ‘burbs, that will take the worst hit, so I’d be hesitant to step into a suburban house in this overheated market. These price increases have been driven by ridiculously low interest rates, and there’s a limit to how low they can go.
Within a couple of years, downtown will be roaring again, while the suburbs will be in a world of pain.
“No. October is when virus cases/hospitalization increase spikes were gaining the publics attention again. I would have expected some flatlining if this made the public wary”
As always, those numbers are closings, not contracts. ie those are units that went under contract in August/September when the panic was lower though the upswing had started.
“Even building amenities are mostly closed or restricted.”
Yep. They’ve learned from the spring lockdowns and science what is effective and what isn’t. Gyms remain open, in buildings and outside of them. You can go to the Zoolights. Some museums have decided to close until January, however.
Heck, you can go to the Water Tower Mall right now and walk around. It’s open.
“How will that impact the city if we are able to vaccinate a lot of the at risk populations by Memorial Day?”
Seems like things will rebound pretty swiftly next year. If you were waiting to renew a lease, you should do it now to get the best deals.
It will be interesting to see how many properties in the purchase arena come on the market this spring. Why list your downtown condo right now? I wouldn’t. But by the spring, lots of buyers will be looking again and we will have rolled out the vaccine to a bunch of people.
“The monthly YOY gains are slowing down.”
Seems like they should. There’s still seasonality at play. Also, in some neighborhoods (outside of downtown) inventory is horrible. If I was a buyer, I would wait to look in the spring.
Additionally, the bad outbreak is probably hitting sales again.
“not sure what you are referring to regarding the parks”
It’s winter. How many people are venturing out to a park in sub 35 temperatures. They are de facto closed
“After a full winter with everything shut down, I won’t be surprised to see a large exodus from downtown in the spring.”
I think it will be the exact opposite. The baseball teams will be playing again, with fans, in April. People will be so excited they get to go out and do things that they’ll be moving back downtown, not leaving it.
“It’s winter. How many people are venturing out to a park in sub 35 temperatures. They are de facto closed”
What are you talking about?
It was 49 and sunny today. Maybe you don’t live in Chicago, I don’t know.
I went to a park today and sat outside. It was lovely. I had friends who went to the Zoolights. I often go to one of the big parks after a snow because it’s so beautiful.
I’ve even gone when it’s been negative wind chills. You have to have the right coat, hat and scarf though. Lol. I’ve been thinking about buying snow shoes too but I’ve heard it’s harder than cross country skiing so I’ve been holding off.
“It’s winter. How many people are venturing out to a park in sub 35 temperatures. They are de facto closed”
People with kids aged 3-7 who need to run out energy and wiggles. Temperature has no meaning to my child. We go to the park almost every day. People with CPS/virtual learning kids aged 5-18 who need to get away from their kids and get some fresh air. People who enjoy winter running (me). 15 degrees is my lower limit. 35 is lovely. The park by us continues to be quite busy.
“With vaccines on the horizon, well-loved city amenities will begin to return to life.”
If we’re going back to normal, then what was the point of the COVID-hoax in the first place? Still, after all this time, this hoax has produced only 1 single famous person death: Herman Cain. Not one single liberal Democrat leader has died. Not one single obnoxious WashDC liberal pundit, nor one single Hollywood pervert-class celebrity has died. Mathematically impossible. The overall US death rate in 2020 has not risen. Impossible under a “pandemic”. The story got deleted by Big Tech.
Obviously, they released a benign virus because they computer simulated how the CC’ers and Sabrinas of the world would respond: Accept the lockdowns, the new color-codes & restrictions, and allow the destruction of the middle-class and transfer all local business to the corporations and billionaire class. Out of fear. Now, the majority of the nation will be looking to big government for socialism, subsidies and welfare, and more loans.
By the way, why did they pivot from the color-codes schemes and the 2000 Patriot Act? (where did “islamic terror” vanish to?!) — to pivot to this 2020 fake virus scheme?What’s the plan here? It’s not going “back to normal”, otherwise why did they do it?
There is talk that under this new covid regime, you won’t be able to access American Life (i.e. Cubs games, plane travel, music concerts, etc.) without proof that you were vaccinated with this rushed vaccine. Just like the Patriot Act and TSA (which liberals opposed vehemently), this COVID Act hoax is going to usher in many restrictions that are here to stay.
HH,
Let me direct you to page 66 & 67 of the linked book, which correspond to pages 41-42 of the book itself.
The pandemic can only be a “hoax” insofar as it could’ve been caught in nature and accidentally or purposefully released. The latter seems exceptionally unlikely. The former is a possibility as we (the US) were researching the original SARS back in 2015 and the funding eventually got cut as it was deemed too dangerous to proceed.
Whatever the origination point isn’t as relevant today however as it is clearly here. And as that linked book points out if it’s some contrivance of the left as you might think nothing could be further from the truth in terms of it’s longer-term consequences.
https://www.lopp.net/pdf/The%20Sovereign%20Individual.pdf
“Whatever the origination point isn’t as relevant today however as it is clearly here.”
I believe it was released and indeed clearly here. But it’s a relatively benign common cold virus, not a mass killer. Therein lies the hoax, the “scare” is meant to control the dupes and allow the implementation of the Covid-regime restrictions and controls like mandatory vaccines of this rushed mystery juice.
The elite released a virus. The virus is benign, because the people will go along with the shutdowns even whilst it is benign, so there was no reason in dealing with the risks that a real virus would create.
Furthermore, they can continue to function as they normally would, and keep industries they want to be turned on going as normal, which they would have problems doing if they had released a real deadly virus.
China is one of the last holdouts in joining the Western globalist system of feminism, anal sex, multiracialism and general Jewish domination. Because they were releasing a virus anyway, they tied the virus to China, so that they could use the panic over the virus to drum up hatred for the Chinese, to later justify action against them, to get them into the globohomo Borg.
This is all very simple, it is all right in front of your face, and you can understand it all very easily without going down some weird, confusing rabbit hole.
Laura, I hope you’re right but the LP high rise condo I’ve had my eye on since August dropped to 385,000 from 400,000 in early Sept. and has stayed there since. No buyers yet. Would love to see it drop more.
Dan#2, you might try making an offer, with proof of funds or financing, for the price you want to pay. It’s hard to figure just how motivated a seller might be- if, as you said, the place is standing empty, the seller might be someone who can afford to be patient. But I’ll bet that a bona fide offer for the place, backed by proof of funding, will soften him up.
“But it’s a relatively benign common cold virus, not a mass killer.”
Stop it. Stop it deniers. What is WRONG with you?
Go to the Covid wards in the hospitals and hang out HH. You wouldn’t last a day.
The tragedy that we were all worried about in the spring is now happening. The whole point of economic shutdowns were to bend the curve so that the hospitals don’t get overwhelmed. It’s too late now. Just 122 ICU beds available in all of LA county with a population of 10 million. Better not have a heart attack or a stroke in LA or you will be dead.
And THAT is the problem.
By the way, the idiots like HH keep dying. HH is in his 70s.
I know someone who went to Trump’s last rally in Pennsylvania. Didn’t wear a mask. Came back. Gave it to his wife. They have both died. A week apart. Late 60s. So sad.
Wear masks. Stay home. Protect yourself until you can get the vaccine.
“If we’re going back to normal, then what was the point of the COVID-hoax in the first place?”
What was the point of the 1918 flu HH? The Black Plague? And on and on throughout all of human history?
1918 flu led to the roaring 20s. Will likely see a repeat of that this decade.
“There is talk that under this new covid regime, you won’t be able to access American Life (i.e. Cubs games, plane travel, music concerts, etc.) without proof that you were vaccinated with this rushed vaccine.”
There isn’t “talk.” It is the reality. Just like they make you have proof of vaccines in order to go to camps, school, entry into certain countries etc.
Nothing new here.
Quantas has already said they will require you to have the vaccine to fly.
Helmethofer,
I’m straining to follow my rule of not insulting anyone.
If this is a hoax then…
Why can’t I get my knee replacement done?
Why are ICUs topping out?
What caused the 300,000 excess deaths we’ve had this year?
What did my cousin’s wife die from?
Why are municipalities having to ration ambulance runs?
Here are some celebrities that have died from Covid: https://people.com/health/celebrity-coronavirus-deaths/
There’s this thing called Google you should try.
Helmethofer,
Here are some politicians that have died or been quarantined because of Covid: https://ballotpedia.org/Government_official,_politician,_and_candidate_deaths,_diagnoses,_and_quarantines_due_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020
It’s just a bad cold Gary.
Lol.
Helmethofer,
Is this part of the hoax? Who convinced all the hospital administrators across the country to pretend that their hospitals are full? https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/89791
Valery Giscard d’Estaing just died of complications of Covid-19, per his obituary in The New York Times yesterday.
Famous person. Dead. Covid-19.
“If this is a hoax then…
Why can’t I get my knee replacement done?”
I’m not even getting a cavity drilled that is forming. Just brushing after every meal and using pre-brush rinse now.
I feel bad for my dentist but there will be so much pent-up demand once the vaccine is widely available.
“Valery Giscard d’Estaing just died of complications of Covid-19, per his obituary in The New York Times yesterday.“
Guy was over 90, no?
“Guy was over 90, no?”
—————————-
Guy was 94. Covid was what pushed him over the edge. So famous guy killed by Covid. HH was wrong.
Unless you or HH want to say that deaths after a certain age or event don’t count. You wanna buck for retirement as the cut off event for that?
“I’m not even getting a cavity drilled that is forming. Just brushing after every meal and using pre-brush rinse now.”
Cancelling my knee replacement was not my choice. Northwestern cancelled all elective surgeries about a month ago.
But I also have not been to the dentist for close to a year now. That’s my decision. Not comfortable with another human breathing into my mouth at close range for an hour even if they are wearing a mask.
My dental student daughter ended up getting Covid after being forced to wear surgical masks when doing dental procedures because there weren’t enough N95s available. She was ordered to take off the N95s she procured on her own because “they weren’t fitted properly”. After her school finally “fitted” students for masks, they were only allowed to use them if they were doing “aerosol” procedures (like drilling), even though the room was filled with other students doing aerosol procedures. They were required to reuse their N95 masks for a week before getting issued new ones.
Nothing has changed after almost a year.
“I’m not even getting a cavity drilled that is forming.”
I went to the dentist about 6 weeks ago and felt totally safe. It’s a small practice with only about 4 people working there. Air purifiers in every room and quality cleaning/sterilization practices going on.
“Unless you or HH want to say that deaths after a certain age or event don’t count. You wanna buck for retirement as the cut off event for that?”
I think it pretty well established that its much more deadly on the old
Hence not a surprise that there was a fatality w/ 90+ YO that contracted Covid
“Guy was 94.”
Yup. This is the biggest part of the hoax, the COVID coding, claiming people died of “COVID” despite other complications and age, etc. HOAX. Most people are more bedridden by Flu A (H1N1) than benign COVID which is of zero danger to children or healthy young people.
“There isn’t “talk.” It is the reality. Just like they make you have proof of vaccines in order to go to camps, school, entry into certain countries etc.”
They eased the restrictions on homosexuals giving blood, but now we’ll have to carry a COIVD card around? LOL. Gates is also saying there will be multiple vaccine shots necessary over a period of years. The guy is a psychopath, plus his software always sucked and needed constant rebooting. Only an IDIOT would follow the advice of Bill Gates. https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/health/covid-19-vaccination-kit-record-card/index.html
Sabrina: you are old enough to remember when Wrigley Field used to let you bring in your own food. They they started checking people at the gate to exclude food (more $$ on concessions), then after the Republicans” Patriot Act they required metal detectors and purse searches. Now they’re going to require proof of an (unproven) rushed vaccine to get into a public venue?
PS The Quantas CEO is a homosexual, so it’s no surprise whatsoever he’s on board with the globohomo agenda. His example proves my position, thank you.
Not only has nobody famous in America died, nobody globally who is famous has either. It’s a hoax.
“Why can’t I get my knee replacement done?”
Hoax. The hospitals are NOT overrun with Covid. Go drive down there and look around yourself. It’s all part of the scheme, just like how Costco and WalMart are open but small businesses are not, and the owners are getting fined.
https://ballotpedia.org/Government_official,_politician,_and_candidate_deaths,_diagnoses,_and_quarantines_due_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020#Diagnosed_incumbents.2C_candidates.2C_and_government_officials
I reviewed this and the numbers are so ridiculously small, it proves my point not yours. Besides the coding could be covid-bs fake, we don’t even know that.
“What caused the 300,000 excess deaths we’ve had this year?”
That’s Fake News. The death rate is the same as before, there is ZERO evidence of a pandemic.
“My dental student daughter ended up getting Covid….whine about masks…blah blah blah”
Well, if that’s all you have to say, it’s obvious she didn’t die or have major or dangerous complications. Benign virus.
Plus, your comment is further proof the idiotic public mask-regime is fake and they don’t work. Fauci has flip-flopped on masks, because he’s untrustworthy too.
““What caused the 300,000 excess deaths we’ve had this year?””
Fear mongering and stress? I’ve had more clients die this year, of literally everything BUT Covid than the last 10 years combined… multiple classmates as well of suicide and other things. None died of the coof. Very strange, IMO.
” Most people are more bedridden by Flu A (H1N1) than benign COVID which is of zero danger to children or healthy young people.”
————————-
So, lemme see, the fact that Covid is more dangerous to the middle-aged and elderly means we can disregard them?
Like I said, what age or cut off event do you use in your evaluation?
John, the problem is that you cannot shut society down without causing other significant issues that could be just as bad.
It is a fact that most of the hospitalizations and deaths are of the elderly with significant co-morbidities. Almost half the Covid deaths are in long term care facilities. Life expectancy in the US is 78.4 years… which is pretty close to typical Covid death age.
The media keeps scaremongering people into thinking healthy 30 years old are out jogging on Monday, catch Covid and die the following Friday which simply isn’t the case.
Yes, those who are at risks should take precautions but everyone else needs to get on with their lives.
This is mass hysteria and the response is over the top imho.
Helmethofer,
Here is the graph showing deaths by week. Even a person of limited intelligence can see that we are experiencing more deaths than normal. It is not a hoax. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Sonies,
There is no way that stress can cause 300,000 extra people to die, which just happens to be around the number of people claimed to have died from this.
Helmethofer:
So all the hospitals in the country are on board with perpetuating a hoax and they are reducing their income to participate in this? How do you coordinate something like that? Who is in charge of this coordination?
And of course the death rate is going to be small among any group that’s under 60. For the nation as a whole it’s not even 1/10%. But that’s not the point. In absolute terms it’s huge.
What is the globohomo agenda? Is it documented somewhere? Who is in charge of it? Was there a meeting to set it?
“What is the globohomo agenda?”
the Western globalist system of open borders, feminism, anal sex, multiracialism and general Jewish domination. Intersectionality, which means everyone has a “grievance” vector that is combined and is genocidally directed at you: the white, heterosexual male and Christianity. Biden’s cabinet, so far, is literally 95% comprised of people with these inclinations. The hate the USA, its founding, its virtues, its history, its religion, its normalcy, and its PEOPLE. The agenda is to end it.
Consider:
One might wonder why a flu virus that according to recent WHO data has a mortality (0.13%) slightly higher than that of a normal seasonal flu syndrome (0.10%) could have led to the declaration of the pandemic and to a series of practically identical countermeasures in almost all European nations and the American continent.
One might also wonder why Covid-19 treatments are generally discredited, minimized or prohibited, while the vaccine is considered the most effective solution.
Why is Walmart and Costco open? Why were Leftist hate riots allowed (no social distancing)? Why is America being shut down? Why is every Leftist politician getting busted maskless and on vacation somewhere?
Sabrina still thinks Chicago is some diversified hub of industry & commerce and transportation etc. What she doesn’t get is the people who created that kind of Chicago in the 20th century, the City that Works, are no longer here, no longer welcome in pozzed Lightfoot Chicago, where most of the alderman are either homosexual whites, marxist Hispanics or racist black panther wannabes. The Chicago that Sabrina claims is a world-class city cannot return as such in the 21st century, because the people have been replaced with a citizenry of shapeless and anonymous slaves to this globalist monotonous characterless global system.
“The media keeps scaremongering people into thinking healthy 30 years old are out jogging on Monday, catch Covid and die the following Friday which simply isn’t the case.”
——————————-
I have no idea what media you are taking in, but the media I take in tells me that the health are going out, catching it, and bringing it home to at-risk loved one, who thereupon die before their time.
“One might wonder why a flu virus that according to recent WHO data has a mortality (0.13%) slightly higher than that of a normal seasonal flu syndrome (0.10%”
——————————–
Helmet, a lie by omission is still a lie, and you are omitting known material facts. Mortality rates operate on a base of infected people. Covid-19 is far more infectious than ordinary flu, therefore a low mortality rate from Covid-19 translates into a lot of deaths.
Stop lying, Helmet, you’re not smart enough to play stupid well.
I swear, the only sort of person who triggers me more than a conspiracy nut like Helmethofer, is a Covid denier.
At the risk of sounding like a cold-hearted old shrew (which maybe I am),I’m going to state that people like HH are part of the major problem this country is having, and that I am totally, completely, utterly out of shits to give for the Covid deniers who comprise the 40% or so of the population nationwide who are refusing to either recognize the seriousness of this virus, often even when they or their own loved ones are stricken and on ventilators, and who defy both public mandates, and the requirements of basic civility, in refusing to wear masks or socially distance, to assert their precious little free-dumbs. Really, I don’t care if these people croak and only wish that every Covid denier could be required to sign an affadavit refusing medical treatment if he or she catches the virus.
I do my part. As I’m older, I go out as little as I can get by with, wear a mask in all indoor public areas including the common areas of my condo building, and have cxl’d travel to be with family in Los Angeles this Christmas. I’ll admit my reasons are not strictly altruistic- I’m scared to death of contracting this disease as one man in my building died a painful and protracted death from it this April and the 30 year old grandson of an old friend lay near death for weeks from it- a healthy, fit 30 year old kid with no underlying health conditions.
Hospitals are now so swamped with Covid patients that they are having to turn away patients, even those with life threatening conditions. That’s another good reason to stay home and off the roads- you might not be able to get care if you get into an accident. Some unfortunate man showed up at a Texas hospital with severe abdominal pain, but there were no beds for him there, or at any other hospital around. After 9 hours, while hospital personnel frantically called every hospital within two hundred miles to see if one could take him, he died. https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/29/texas-coronavirus-rural-hospitals/?utm_campaign=trib-social-buttons&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR2RG3KrF2MopIDMoXCGiCbkDc0dzazePg-2eSCA3QQ9wp5ZITZTaueeXXU
I’m sick and disgusted with what this country has become since my girlhood so long ago, while morons yell WE’RE THE GREATEST WE’RE THE GREATEST. We’ve become a nation of uneducated,half-literate, fantasy-prone, self-indulgent, uncivil cretins. The only thing we’re number one in these days is Covid deaths per million capita. We have 20% of the world’s Covid deaths with 4% of the world’s population. We’re just great, aren’t we.
“John, the problem is that you cannot shut society down without causing other significant issues that could be just as bad.”
This is why the pro-lockdown people just don’t fucking get it.
Today I saw on the news them discussing how we would need job creation at current levels for three years to get back to where we were at the beginning of 2020 & more govt stimulus was needed, etc to get through this. That doesn’t account for population growth in the intervening years this is merely to get at employment levels in absolute terms.
It’s almost as if the pro-lockdown/pro-shutdown people have no memory of the 2008 financial crisis which took a decade for the labor market to rebound. And why would they have a memory? Most of these folks are office drones insulated from the repercussions on the ground of their spoon fed thoughts from the MSM. Especially those that work in government who had little to no shared sacrifice during that period.
Well now the labor market is irreparably broken and unlike the drones who love to believe big government is omniscient or omnipotent, it doesn’t work that way.
The labor market and debt ladder as our society is current constructed is a social contract, and these people just tore that up & threw it in the bin under the guise of “saving lives”. Perhaps some even thought they could “rebuild society, even better” and what a great opportunity to do so.
Except now unlike earlier this year the virus really is everywhere and people aren’t having another shutdown.
Now that we haven’t got the health outcomes these pro-lockdown/pro-shutdown people wanted we sure as fuck need to ensure they aren’t going to be able to “rebuild better” in our recovery.
Segregating people in our society based on “essential” or “non-essential” and telling some they must work from home while others who do the actual physical work cannot do so and this is all fine and part of some grand plan?
I’ll tell you what it’s a grand plan for: a lack of social cohesion in the future and civil unrest. Put that in your statist pipe & smoke it.
One of the few good unintended consequences of this whole thing though is work from home/work from anywhere isn’t going away and this has been a huge catalyst to the placeless revolution that was already underway.
High tax & spend legacy cities like Chicago/NYC/etc are in deep shit as companies realize no, there is not actually anything special about having employees here vs in Omaha, or even Mumbai.
When the admin says Chicagoland is so great because it has an ample supply of such an educated workforce it sounds like a talking point straight out of a Fortune or Forbes ad from the 1980s. Newsflash: people can be educated and live anywhere these days. And classes don’t even have to be delivered in person anymore.
“I’ll tell you what it’s a grand plan for: a lack of social cohesion in the future and civil unrest.”
True. The cost of lockdowns is huge. But let’s say you are the governor or the mayor and the hospitals will absolutely fill up and overflow into the streets unless you lock down. I assume that people will be told to just go home and die. I don’t see what other alternative there is – and that includes heart attack and stroke victims and accident victims. Health care workers will collapse from the stress and leave hospital patients unattended. So are you saying that you are prepared to just let that happen on your watch? What kind of civil unrest will that result in?
Well the truth is this might happen anyway even with the lockdowns.
And let’s not pretend like the economy would be “normal” with this virus around it certainly wouldn’t be. But people would adjust their behavior to the extent they perceived the risk and there wouldn’t be big brother to blame for their lot in this whole thing.
But with big brother’s stamp of approval on, what appears to be mostly ineffective lockdowns so far, there is going to be a whole lot of discontent sewn in the decade ahead.
As for hospitals being overwhelmed at this point I can say that we had nine months to build up our field hospital capacity so to the extent that this wasn’t done can also be blamed on government. It was entirely predictable that we’d have a big wave this winter.
In terms of healthcare workers perhaps there wouldn’t be enough of them but there really is no excuse to not have adequate facilities given the lead time we had.
““John, the problem is that you cannot shut society down without causing other significant issues that could be just as bad.”
This is why the pro-lockdown people just don’t fucking get it.”
——————————————–
I certainly don’t mind a discussion of the economics of lock down vice no lock down. In fact, that conversation is absolutely needed, including the part where people don’t go to bars/eateries/events because they don’t want to get sick or catch it and bring it home. Having that conversation, however, means that reasonable people can disagree.
At that point it comes down to choice, and if you infect me, I have no choice in the matter, and I risk dying, especially if I am vulnerable.
This is where review of areas that took a no-shut-down-go-for-herd-immunity approach is instructive. Two that come to mind are Sweden and Great Britain. Herd immunity failed and they are locking down, with worse economic consequences (per GDP decline) than their neighboring states.
Your approach has been tried, Bob. It failed. Now STFU and stop whining.
“Well the truth is this might happen anyway even with the lockdowns…
…In terms of healthcare workers perhaps there wouldn’t be enough of them but there really is no excuse to not have adequate facilities given the lead time we had.”
I think it’s pretty well established that if fewer people congregate you will have lower transmission rates. It just makes sense. The economic cost is worth discussion. Frankly, I’d be happier if politicians came out and said things like “we’ve decided to let more people die because the economic cost is too great of letting them live” or “we’ve decided to hurt the economy to let people live”. What we have now is decisions without admission that there is a cost to the decision.
I think the field hospitals can be constructed pretty quickly. I think the problem is that they can’t staff them so there’s no point. It’s pretty well established that we don’t have enough health care workers to deal with this if we don’t lock down. So, are we prepared to let people die on the street? I mean…it could theoretically be worth it from an economic perspective and half the country wouldn’t believe it was happening until it happened to them or someone they cared about so you’d have that going for you.
“the Western globalist system of open borders, feminism, anal sex, multiracialism and general Jewish domination. Intersectionality, which means everyone has a “grievance” vector that is combined and is genocidally directed at you: the white, heterosexual male and Christianity. Biden’s cabinet, so far, is literally 95% comprised of people with these inclinations. The hate the USA, its founding, its virtues, its history, its religion, its normalcy, and its PEOPLE. The agenda is to end it.”
So the voices in your head tell you this is a package deal? What evidence do you have that this system exists other than the voices in your head? And can you prove that Biden’s cabinet picks want a system of anal sex, which I’m not even sure what such a system is?
“general Jewish domination”
——————————-
That caught my eye, too. I had a Jewish girlfriend once. Not orthodox. She liked domination. More corporal than general though. All generals do is give instructions. She was much more hands on.
“Sonies, There is no way that stress can cause 300,000 extra people to die, which just happens to be around the number of people claimed to have died from this.”
Gary you are way off on this take, stress is one of the leading causes of premature death. This is an old paper so I would only imagine the numbers have skyrocketed lately
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3341916/
“The morbidity and mortality due to stress-related illness is alarming. Emotional stress is a major contributing factor to the six leading causes of death in the United States: cancer, coronary heart disease, accidental injuries, respiratory disorders, cirrhosis of the liver and suicide. According to statistics from Meridian Stress Management Consultancy in the U.K, almost 180,000 people in the U.K die each year from some form of stress-related illness (7). The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States estimates that stress account about 75% of all doctors visit (7). This involves an extremely wide span of physical complaints including, but not limited to headache, back pain, heart problems, upset stomach, stomach ulcer, sleep problems, tiredness and accidents. According to Occupational Health and Safety news and the National Council on compensation of insurance, up to 90% of all visits to primary care physicians are for stress-related complaints.”
I’m also not saying that the virus doesn’t exist, rather than its just another coronavirus that humans have dealt with for millenia and just a bad flu, most definitely NOT worth the amount of restrictions we have allowed our tyrannical government to impose… China lied, we listened to them and for some insane reason Trump went along with the plan to give them an inch (two weeks to flatten the curve) and here we are now with people STILL being told they can’t run their businesses.
Helmethofer,
Do you actually believe your lies or are you just running some kind of propaganda machine?
“One might wonder why a flu virus that according to recent WHO data has a mortality (0.13%) slightly higher than that of a normal seasonal flu syndrome (0.10%) could have led to the declaration of the pandemic and to a series of practically identical countermeasures in almost all European nations and the American continent.”
If you look long and hard enough you will find whatever IFR you want. But the truth is that it depends on the country and it depends on when you calculate it. For instance, it’s lower in India than in the US because they have a younger population. And it’s come down in the US because we’ve gotten better at treating it. Best guess is that it’s around 0.6%. It has to be worse than the flu because it’s killed like 5 flu seasons worth of people and still going strong: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fatality/covid-19-fatality-rate-down-30-since-april-study-finds-idUSKBN27S39D
But ask yourself…are all these countries going to simultaneously do something that only you realize is stupid?
“One might also wonder why Covid-19 treatments are generally discredited, minimized or prohibited, while the vaccine is considered the most effective solution.”
That’s just confusion on your part. Remdesivir, steroids, and even plasma have not been discredited. It’s just that, in the case of plasma, they’d like to see a bit more research.
“Why is Walmart and Costco open?” Because all stores are open.
“Why were Leftist hate riots allowed (no social distancing)?” Aside from the fact that I don’t know what a leftist hate riot is, riots are never allowed.
“Why is America being shut down?” It’s not to my knowledge. However, certain classes of business are being shut down in certain cities.
“Why is every Leftist politician getting busted maskless and on vacation somewhere?” Far more rightist politicians run around maskless than leftist politicians. Very few leftist politicians have been busted like this.
“Gary you are way off on this take, stress is one of the leading causes of premature death.”
It’s a fact that we have had 300,000+ more deaths this year than normal. It’s a fact that 280,000+ people have died and their deaths were attributed to Covid, mostly because they tested positive. But you’re saying they really died from stress? Doesn’t pass the smell test.
“Your approach has been tried, Bob. It failed. Now STFU and stop whining.”
Sweden isn’t locked down as far as I know & never was. Also Switzerland seems to be doing fine with no overall lockdown.
It’s almost as if having a healthy citizenry has benefits?
Yes if you have people using push-carts in big box en masse you can expect there will be other consequences for allowing that sort of behavior from time to time.
And disallowing it doesn’t mean pop taxes which were attempted here it means social shaming of derelict POS’s who let their health go to shit of their own volition.
Cry me a river for those born otherwise healthy who lived day to day and made decisions day to day like an animal who let their health go to shit. I have no sympathy for such people. These people from my estimation at least in America outnumber those born with a condition by a healthy margin.
Sweden has been a disaster. Their death rate is pretty bad, they have locked down to different extents, and their economy still plunged. Just Google Sweden Covid and look at the news stories for the last week or so. Here is one: https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-10-locals-how-they-feel-second-covid-19-wave-2020-11
business insider is clickbate garbage, here is a video of a guy who compiles all sorts of data direct from the european governments data and shows you that sweden did the right thing, way better than I ever could, and locking down now is stupid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3vDsKEOIQI
“business insider is clickbate garbage”
And then you link to a video from Ivor Cummins. That guy is a nutjob on some kind of a crusade. Months ago he put together a bunch of misleading data – accurate but cherry picked – to prove that Sweden had achieved herd immunity. Clearly wrong. He also argued that most of the deaths were over because it was “dry tinder” burning. Again, wrong.
Fine…you don’t like Business Insider. How about https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/swedens-anti-lockdown-experiment-flopped-now-it-faces-a-wave-of-pandemic-pain/2020/12/01/9e90ee28-3344-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html
We can do this all day. If necessary I can pick apart Ivor Cummins but I’d rather not waste the time.
You notice that Bob ran right away from my reference to Great Britain. I never said diddly about Switzerland. Stop lying and running away from reality, Bob.
“Hospitals are now so swamped with Covid patients that they are having to turn away patients, even those with life threatening conditions.”
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1335588160965906433
You know, I see Bob and Helmuthofer are here for our amusement in the same way that we watch chimpanzees in the zoo crap into their hand and then throw it around.
“In Boston, transit officials warned of ending weekend service on the commuter rail and shutting down the city’s ferries. In Washington, weekend and late-night metro service would be eliminated and 19 of the system’s 91 stations would close. In Atlanta, 70 of the city’s 110 bus routes have already been suspended, a move that could become permanent.
And in New York City, home to the largest mass transportation system in North America, transit officials have unveiled a plan that could slash subway service by 40 percent and cut commuter rail service in half.”
Trump wants to end the expensive foreign wars, but liberals still hate him. The military is not short of cash or subsidy. Instead the middle and lower classes bear the brunt of (not a pandemic) but government policy.
This is a project to destroy all small businesses and take your rights away. You all know that this mystery vaccine with synthetic RNA will be REQUIRED for freedom of movement in society and the workplace. It’s Orwellian. Why would anyone trust the government? The corruption of these psychopaths is not limited to our city and its history of corrupt aldermen, it goes all the way up to the top, Trump excepted.
Nobody believed that we’d still be locked down 9 months later with patriot act type color-code restrictions. This is a simulation, and suckers are falling for it. Worse to come. That is for sure.
Here’s the Swiss restrictions. Sounds like the US restrictions:
Events:
No more than 10 people among friends and family
No public events with more than 50 people
No gatherings of more than 15 people in public spaces
Sporting and cultural activities with more than 15 people prohibited
Bars, etc.
No more than 4 people per table
Consumption only when seated
Required record of contact details
Bars and restaurants closed from 11 pm to 6 am
Nightclubs are completely closed
When to wear a face mask
All public transport, bus and tram stops and publicly accessible indoor areas
At schools from upper secondary level
When working indoors (except at workspace, as long as distance can be maintained)
Outside entrance areas of restaurants, shops, as well as in busy pedestrian zones
In public spaces when it is not possible to keep your distance
Cantonal measures
Cantons may have additional cantonal specific measures. You will find a collection of links to cantonal information sites at http://www.ch.ch
“And then you link to a video from Ivor Cummins. That guy is a nutjob on some kind of a crusade. ”
Like what, getting facts out (that are provided by every government in Europe) instead of catering to emotions and anecdata?
Sweden isn’t locked down as far as I know & never was.
Sweden has approximately 5 times the number of covid deaths of Finland, Norway, and Denmark combined. And is now “locking down”.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/long-a-holdout-from-covid-19-restrictions-sweden-ends-its-pandemic-experiment-11607261658
“Like what, getting facts out (that are provided by every government in Europe) instead of catering to emotions and anecdata?”
I already told you that his facts are correct but he cherry picks them. I’ve even seen him cut graphs off early because the rest of the graph disproves his point. He draws the wrong conclusions. Months ago he concluded Sweden had achieved herd immunity.
Helmethofer,
Regarding the Alex Berenson tweet. First, I am shocked that you follow a Jew. Sure his tweets aren’t part of a plot for Jewish world domination? You know…convince people like you to take chances with the virus in the hopes of eliminating you?
So what do you think his information proves? It certainly has nothing to do with whether or not the virus is a hoax. Did it occur to you that maybe cases peak precisely because of all the media attention and the restrictions? As for field hospital utilization…let’s say your a mayor or a governor and there’s a 90% chance that you’ll need to treat 10 people, and a 50% chance that you’ll need to treat 100 people and a 10% chance you’ll need to treat 500 people. Do you build the field hospital? Of course, you have to plan for a worst case scenario. If you can follow that story you’ll understand why field hospitals aren’t fully used. Not to mention that they build them assuming the curve won’t flatten any time soon but then introduce all sorts of precautionary measures to flatten the curve.
Helmethofer,
Please explain what the voices in your head are telling you because it’s really hard to follow the logic:
“This is a project to destroy all small businesses and take your rights away.”
Please provide your evidence that this “project” exists and who is behind it and how they will benefit.
“You all know that this mystery vaccine with synthetic RNA will be REQUIRED for freedom of movement in society and the workplace.”
Nope. Where did you get that from? And is synthetic RNA supposed to scare us?
“Nobody believed that we’d still be locked down 9 months later with patriot act type color-code restrictions.”
I am not locked down in Chicago but I don’t feel like going anywhere right now anyway so it doesn’t matter.
“This is a simulation, and suckers are falling for it.” Simulation for what? And who is running it?
https://www.rt.com/business/508552-extreme-poverty-growth-un/
Hey, at least they didn’t catch a cold virus aka covid-19!
The Great Reset!
When was the last time that a cold virus killed 400,000 people in the US?
helmet, rt.com is a russian propaganda channel. You know, the people who gave us the Protocol of the Elders of Zion.
Note also that Switzerland requires, for its bars and restaurants: “Required record of contact details” — so you cannot go to a bar or restaurant anonymously.
Talk about big brother. Orwell. Deep state.
Sure you want to hold Switzerland up as a model of economic freedom, Helmet?
Helmet, you are a dolt. As long as you don’t breed I don’t have an issue with it. Otherwise I’ll fear for the gene pool.
“Trump wants to end the expensive foreign wars, but liberals still hate him. The military is not short of cash or subsidy.”
Who has passed the most expensive Pentagon budget in US history of $740 billion a year? Trump has.
Who expanded the federal deficit from $19 trillion to $27 trillion?
Trump has.
I really don’t want to hear about how Republicans are “conservative” about spending. They’re clearly not.
And why would Trump be “exempt” from the government corruption? He’s been at the top of the totem pole for 4 years. Lol. He IS the government, for all practical purposes. Big spending and all. As well as its incompetence to allow this virus to go unchecked across the country this year.
““Why is Walmart and Costco open?” Because all stores are open.”
I have a friend who is working at Macy’s this holiday season. She said people were waiting to get in the store when it opened this morning. A Sunday morning. During the pandemic.
“One of the few good unintended consequences of this whole thing though is work from home/work from anywhere isn’t going away and this has been a huge catalyst to the placeless revolution that was already underway.”
Sure it will. People WANT to go back to their offices. They miss colleagues and interacting. Will we see companies have smaller offices? Yes. They will do what McDonald’s did when it built its new HQ.
McDonald’s assumed as many as 25% of its workers would be working from home on any given day. They didn’t assign desks to most workers. You have a locker. On the 3 days a week you come in, you sit at random desks that are available or out on the decks or the public spaces.
Already, PayPal is trying to reduce its new office space it just signed for in the Merchandise Mart, realizing that more people will be spending more time at home.
But if you really think people want to get out of college and then go live…where? Some random suburb where they grew up or some small town somewhere versus moving to Chicago and going to Cubs games, then you really don’t understand what the cities are all about.
People need to sign that great lease deal in the next 3 months because by the summer it will be fading.
“When the admin says Chicagoland is so great because it has an ample supply of such an educated workforce it sounds like a talking point straight out of a Fortune or Forbes ad from the 1980s.”
Yes- it does have this.
Goldman Sachs is looking to move its asset management team out of NYC. They are looking at Miami or Dallas. This was already happening for Goldman pre-pandemic.
They want to lower costs and it’s cheaper for office space and for salaries outside of NY. Chicago doesn’t pay NYC salaries, so we’re an option for a lot of companies moving from the coasts.
Also interesting that HP is moving it’s HQ from Silicon Valley to…Houston.
They’re still moving to the 4th largest city in America Bob. Why? Because there is talent there. The CEO said it is easier to recruit. And yes, Chicago’s super educated workforce is its biggest lure.
Also, if you think you are going to be 25, work from some remote town, and actually move up in a career in Chicago where networking and other things are required, then I don’t know what to tell you.
“Sabrina still thinks Chicago is some diversified hub of industry & commerce and transportation etc.”
Of course it is. We are #1 in transportation in the country.
HH is old and stuck in the America of 50 or 100 years ago.
The rest of us have moved on.
“The media keeps scaremongering people into thinking healthy 30 years old are out jogging on Monday, catch Covid and die the following Friday which simply isn’t the case.”
It’s obviously much smaller numbers for those under 30 years old. Thank goodness. But every week there are several 30-year olds dying of COVID in Cook County. Sadly.
Also, the key thing is, that they go and see their parents who then can’t fight it off the same way a 30-year old can.
“Now they’re going to require proof of an (unproven) rushed vaccine to get into a public venue?”
Wrigley Field is owned by a private company. They can do whatever they want. If they want to require proof of a vaccine, then they will.
HH, most of the international airlines will be following Quantas lead. If you want to travel anywhere outside of the US, you will need the vaccine.
It’s amazing how “global” the conspiracy is, isn’t it?
I’m so tired of the COVID deniers. It’s so embarrassing for them at this point.
Want to know what’s going on out there?
If you list a vintage property that has been completely renovated by an architect, it will sell within days.
Like this lovely property in East Lincoln Park:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1821-N-Lincoln-Park-W-60614/home/13344922
“
Goldman Sachs is looking to move its asset management team out of NYC. They are looking at Miami or Dallas. This was already happening for Goldman pre-pandemic.
They want to lower costs and it’s cheaper for office space and for salaries outside of NY. Chicago doesn’t pay NYC salaries, so we’re an option for a lot of companies moving from the coasts.
Also interesting that HP is moving it’s HQ from Silicon Valley to…Houston.
They’re still moving to the 4th largest city in America Bob. Why? Because there is talent there. The CEO said it is easier to recruit. And yes, Chicago’s super educated workforce is its biggest lure.”
Obviously not a big enough lure. Chicago losing to Houston, man that’s embarrassing
I guess GS doesn’t view global warming as a very big concern
But state income taxes might be.
“But state income taxes might be.“
Unpossible! Everybody want to live and work in Chicago.
Chicago has the best of everything – educated workforce, transportation, El/Sec schools, etc,etc, etc
“People need to sign that great lease deal in the next 3 months because by the summer it will be fading.”
———————————-
Sabrina, you’re as delusional as HH is, just in different ways.
I suppose next you’ll insist that Bucktown goes South of Armitage, which it does not.
“Chicago losing to Houston, man that’s embarrassing”
Just part of the trend of the past 60 years that has driven waves of people from the snow states to the warm climate states. I believe that trend is about to reverse, especially in the low-lying east coast and gulf coast cities, and will leave hundreds of billions of $$ in stranded assets in places like coastal Florida and Texas over the next 30 years. While it’s just my personal opinion that Houston is a miserable place to live anytime but January and February – the non-winter months are unbearably hot and humid, and the fall months bring hurricanes and floods that are more intense every year- there’s no question that sea level rise is happening, and faster than originally predicted, and that low-lying coastal cities will become difficult to impossible to live in.
“Wrigley Field is owned by a private company. They can do whatever they want. If they want to require proof of a vaccine, then they will.”
ever wonder why these people want every small business shut down for good? because there’s no way free thinking small business people will have the time to enforce this BS, large corporations with lots of people with free time and extra resources will though…
“People WANT to go back to their offices. They miss colleagues and interacting.”
On what data are those assertions based? Surveys paid for by the major office landlords, brokers, etc.? I’ve seen sentiments like those creeping into commercial real estate publications, etc. Some are quotes from commercial brokers, “consultants”, whatever. Some are coming from office managing partners/directors at professional services firms, no doubt in part to justify the leases they were proud to have inked pre-pandemic.
Sure, I really miss working in a nice, quiet office with a view (instead of in my 8-year old’s cramped bedroom), I sort of miss having some collegiality and adult interactions, and I guess I miss being in a downtown/high rise environment for the workday. But I don’t miss commuting. Or shaving or getting dressed up. If I had to choose between working the next 20 years this way vs. the pre-pandemic way, I’m afraid that I’d have to stick with this way.
Many people also have PTSD from the lockdown. Regardless of vaccines and declarations that it is safe to go back to offices, many people don’t want to out of fear. of course, this also doesn’t take into account people are starting to enjoy not being in the office.
I know my wife has decided she doesn’t want to go back to an office full time and is willing to take a pay cut to continue working remotely or at least where she only needs to go into the office 1 or 2 days a week.
“I really miss working in a nice, quiet office with a view (instead of in my 8-year old’s cramped bedroom)”
Both sides of that really affects one’s reaction, right?
If “the office” means a hot desk in a bullpen, who wants that shit?
But if “home” means working on the breakfast bar, and seeing the “home office” set up anytime your eyes are open, that’s sucky, too.
“Of course it is. We are #1 in transportation in the country.”
Do you mean sitting in traffic? Or our aged 19th century infrastructure?
It takes days for one rail car to get from one side of Chicagoland to the other, far longer than it takes a rail car to get from the east coast to Chicagoland. The El is a giant joke where no improvements are ever made and things are done just as they always have been (why use recycled plastic to rebuild the platforms when we’ve always used wood that has to be redone every few decades or much sooner when we use the wrong kind of wood).
I don’t know what planet you live on if you think Chicago is some 21st century hub of commerce. That would be China.
Chicago’s infrastructure seems emblematic of it’s heyday: late 19th century. Hell some people here even seem to think traveling by train is still glamorous which is why Chicago is home to the last private passenger owned rail car.
Sabrina were you planning on taking a dirigible ride to Europe before covid hit?
“If “the office” means a hot desk in a bullpen, who wants that shit?”
Become a Lawyer, HR or some financial positions as they’re the only ones deemed with a need for privacy that requires an office. Others that can will Hotel or a a 6X8 cube.
The only other suggestion I have if you want an office is talk really loudly and discuss your personal life – Divorce, kids in rehab, etc
“why use recycled plastic to rebuild the platforms when we’ve always used wood that has to be redone every few decades or much sooner when we use the wrong kind of wood”
Well, if you gave one of the Daley family, or their friends, a recycled-plastic ‘lumber’ company, I’m sure we’d see it all over.
Most stupid things related to construction/infrastructure in Chicago/Illinois boil down to either (1) corruption, (2) protecting union (both government and trades) jobs, or (3) both.
Back to real estate…I just published my November update: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/12/chicago-real-estate-market-update-continuing-the-run-of-14-year-records/
Closings were up 18.4% (but the IAR will report 17.5%)and the divergence between condo inventory and SFH inventory is getting really wide. Yet condos that closed in November sold much faster than last year.
“Of course it is. We are #1 in transportation in the country.”
Sabrina (might as well call her Karen) lives in the past.
In the 20th century, Chicago was a powerhouse of commerce (2 Worlds Fairs in 1893 and 1933), had a normalized moral populace (1926 Eucharistic congress and active churches and synagogues), and had nicknames like The City that Works and The City of Big Shoulders, Frank Sinatra sang its praises, it later became a financial center of Alpha males, etc.
Sabrina still thinks that Chicago is some legit place. Lol. You can’t replace the white heterosexual population with: homosexuals, single feminists, post-menopausal hags, Hispanic marxists, and wannabe black panthers and then expect anything productive. We today have a pervert for a mayor, which is totally emblematic of the decline.
This so-called muscular and successful Chicago of commerce that Sabrina is talking about is running on fumes, and as the percentage of white men is reduced, the culture they created (and only and they can operate) is falling apart. Go drive around Cook County these days, it looks horrible. The City is a joke, the state IL is a joke, the morality is in the gutter, crime is nuts, drugs and homeless problems everywhere…and do I even need to go on? Chicago always had “the Mafia” but does that compare to 300,000 affiliated extreme violent gangmembers in 2020?
You can’t replace a successful past demographic which produced Chicago’s success with an inferior population and expect similar results, in fact, you can’t even expect that low-IQ, low moral, perverted, and feminist-educated populace to MAINTAIN the prior culture they inherited. No chance. Not possible. Oh yes, Jeanne Gang is going to save Chicago’s reputation as a place of global commerce! Lol. China builds more impressive buildings every single week.
So, Karen/Sabrina, stop trying to suggest that 2020 is the same Chicago as you remember it. The world has passed you by.
“So, Karen/Sabrina, stop trying to suggest that 2020 is the same Chicago as you remember it. The world has passed you by.”
I love how you project HH.
Since you don’t live in Chicago, I’ll clue you in. Uber Freight has decided to put its headquarters here. A little company named, Boeing, is headquartered here. One of the largest railcar leasing companies, GATX, is headquartered here. Yes, the rails actually DO still matter. A vital component of the country’s transportation system.
It’s why Amazon has located so many distribution facilities in the suburbs.
But you knew that, right HH?
Sure.
Like I’ve said for years- HH doesn’t live here. Why would ANYONE be so stupid to live in a place that is a “joke” as he describes it? You’d have to be seriously mentally ill to punish yourself like that.
The country is a big place. Lots of great cities and suburbs to live in.
Go. Move. Live your life, before it’s too late.
Don’t end up like HH. A bitter old man.
“Closings were up 18.4% (but the IAR will report 17.5%)and the divergence between condo inventory and SFH inventory is getting really wide.”
Thanks Gary.
Lots of interesting data in there.
2.2 months of inventory for SFH and 6.8 months for condos, the highest in 9 years. Yikes. All of those condos downtown are really a lag. And the Vista and Chicago Tribune inventory isn’t actually even on the market yet. Just wait until they add some more of that.
Inventory is actually pretty low outside of downtown. That’s why market times aren’t that long and sellers are getting close to their asking price.
It will be interesting to see what happens by the February selling season. Will we HAVE a February selling season? Lol. No one knows. The trends have changed this year. The old real estate cycle doesn’t apply.
“The El is a giant joke where no improvements are ever made and things are done just as they always have been”
Whut???
Again, I don’t think Bob lives in Chicago. Maybe he is in the burbs.
Numerous El stations have been completely renovated and transformed in the last 10 years. Several more still being done. A new El station was put in the West Loop. The flyover is being constructed. They fixed the tracks over the Chicago River. They put in a huge commuter station in the loop with working elevators.
Obama funneled several billion dollars in transportation funds in the last 2 years of his presidency to Chicago and the El really benefitted.
And Bob, we’re the #1 transportation city in the country. As I explained to HH, who we KNOW doesn’t live in Chicago, we have more transportation companies and jobs than anywhere else. We’re still #1 in rail and we have the headquarters of the largest airplane manufacturer in the country along with one of the world’s largest airports.
Trains still rule the world. They’re huge for moving goods.
“I believe that trend is about to reverse, especially in the low-lying east coast and gulf coast cities, and will leave hundreds of billions of $$ in stranded assets in places like coastal Florida and Texas over the next 30 years.”
Yep. Agreed Laura.
It won’t be long before there is mass migration back to the Midwest, even from places like California, Arizona and Nevada due to fires/heat and lack of water.
Midwest weather just won’t be as extreme and will become a plus, even with the winters (which are expected to moderate, actually.)
The Midwest will rise again. Milwaukee, Cleveland and Detroit will become attractive again. Heck, look at Columbus. It’s one of the hottest cities in the country right now.
“Regardless of vaccines and declarations that it is safe to go back to offices, many people don’t want to out of fear. of course, this also doesn’t take into account people are starting to enjoy not being in the office.”
You’re all old.
You think that 28 year old office worker is going to want to stay home.
Heck no.
They’re all going to Mexico for the New Years.
“Sabrina, you’re as delusional as HH is, just in different ways.”
I’m only delusional if we don’t get a vaccine. And with the incompetence of this administration, anything is possible.
“Chicago losing to Houston, man that’s embarrassing”
Huh?
It’s the fourth largest city. Plenty of corporate headquarters there, especially in HPE’s line of business.
“Again, I don’t think Bob lives in Chicago. Maybe he is in the burbs.”
It doesn’t really matter what you think but it is comical and humorous at times.
“Trains still rule the world. They’re huge for moving goods.”
Spoken like a true person who grew up in the burbs and is inspired by the novelty of the El but would never admit that the CTA transports more people via bus–you know those things that also exist in the burbs?
You can put lipstick on the El and claim the billions spent made it great but it didn’t. Most of the dumb projects you talk about are 5+ years away and are always 5+ years away. Oh wow they added an elevator to the Quincy stop! News flash: the elevators don’t even work half the time at CTA stops. Often times when they do still work someone has pissed in them. CTA can’t even make all of their stations ADA accessible within the next decade and they’ve only had ~3 decades since the ADA law was passed.
“The Midwest will rise again. Milwaukee, Cleveland and Detroit will become attractive again. Heck, look at Columbus. It’s one of the hottest cities in the country right now.”
Yeah the dynamics that affect college town Columbus are definitely the same ones that affect Milwaukee, Cleveland & Detroit.
The El was never designed for rapid transit. It has so many stops in the loop in just a 5×7 block area it is a joke from an urban planning standpoint. It does one thing & only 1 thing well: transporting lots of people from the neighborhoods to that 5×7 block area and vice versa. For anything else like getting from one end of the city to the other it really quite sucks. The El was “world class” in the 1800s and hasn’t been anything near world class for the past century. Those who grew up in the suburbs and are intrigued by it because they didn’t have light rail growing up and for whom the novelty never seems to wear off are humorous simpletons. The El even sounds like a giant dilapidated piece of shit.
“ It’s the fourth largest city. Plenty of corporate headquarters there, especially in HPE’s line of business.”
It’s an PetroChem town you dolt.
Other than for locals who think it’s Mecca, Houston is not a world class town.
Try again
My biggest issue with public transportation is that it’s public transportation – i.e. heavily subsidized by the government. It’s been a long time since I looked at the numbers but I bet it hasn’t changed. Fares only cover about half the cost of the el. The rest is paid for by the taxpayer, and that includes real estate transfer taxes. WTF? What does buying real estate have to do with public transportation?
So why not double fares? Because ridership would plummet – i.e. the cost is greater than the economic value to the user. That’s a problem. And I don’t want to hear about providing transportation to low income people because all that does is provide cheap labor for low income jobs – i.e. the real subsidy is to low wage employers – i.e. it keeps wages low.
And I don’t want to hear about how the government subsidizes automobile transportation because that’s a fustercluck too that shouldn’t be a model for policy. There shouldn’t be any subsidies. Raise gasoline taxes until there are no subsidies. At least that would make public transportation more appealing.
“ Raise gasoline taxes until there are no subsidies.”
Do you mean raise taxes till they offset the subsidies?
“At least that would make public transportation more appealing.“
Than?
The issue with mass transit is the last mile. Works fine for densely packed office jobs but more difficult with blue collar/trades. It’s why people lived next to the factory where they worked.
“Do you mean raise taxes till they offset the subsidies?”
Correct. Replace the subsidies with higher gas taxes – and don’t use gas taxes to subsidize other shit.
“Than?” Than it is now.
“It’s why people lived next to the factory where they worked.” And if transportation was more expensive people would probably live closer to their jobs.
“WTF? What does buying real estate have to do with public transportation?”
——————————–
A pricelessly idiotic statement, Gary. How many times have you advertised a house as “just steps to the El?”
ANY economist will tell you that housing costs and transportation costs are the same thing. That’s why real estate agents tell people looking for houses to “drive ’til you qualify.”
As for subsidies, saying that car subsidies are a cluster* doesn’t stop them from being subsidies. So why not say that driving cars doesn’t provide economic value to the user?
Sing and dance all you want, but the externalities of mass transit are far lower than the externalities of driving cars.
“Do you mean raise taxes till they offset the subsidies?”
——————————
Why not just eliminate the subsidies for driving cars and subsidize mass transit (bus, rail, whatever) more? That would reduce externalities.
“The Midwest will rise again.”
—————————
The Midwest is the new South?
“How many times have you advertised a house as “just steps to the El?”
I figured someone would try to make this argument. Fine, implement a complex transfer tax that reflects the value that public transportation transfers to a specific property. Every transaction gets charge an exorbitant fee to pay for the CTA, regardless of where it’s located. It makes no sense.
” Why not just eliminate the subsidies for driving cars and subsidize mass transit (bus, rail, whatever) more? That would reduce externalities.”
Why should you subsidize mass transit at all? Is the government better suited to calculate the value of mass transit than the millions of people that use it and make employment, transportation, and housing decisions based on their personal circumstances?
“So why not say that driving cars doesn’t provide economic value to the user?” Because obviously it does. But if it’s subsidized then the resources are inefficiently allocated.
“ And if transportation was more expensive people would probably live closer to their jobs.”
That’s not necessarily a net positive (depends on ones preferences) as it limits job opportunities, access to medical care, etc
“ I figured someone would try to make this argument. Fine, implement a complex transfer tax that reflects the value that public transportation transfers to a specific property. Every transaction gets charge an exorbitant fee to pay for the CTA, regardless of where it’s located. It makes no sense.”
Isn’t that already in place to an extent with increased property values/xfr tax relative to proximity to mass transit?
“The Midwest will rise again.”
In the near future where we all live in Bucktown.
“Why should you subsidize mass transit at all?”
As to operations, or capital, or both? Different answers, of course.
“That’s not necessarily a net positive (depends on ones preferences) as it limits job opportunities, access to medical care, etc”
Obviously individuals would take all of that into account when making choices on employment and housing. The individual knows better than the government how to balance all of that.
“Isn’t that already in place to an extent with increased property values/xfr tax relative to proximity to mass transit?”
Except that proximity to public transportation does not uniformly impact the value of all properties. It might add 5% to one property, no value to another (far from all el lines), or detract 30% from the value of a property right next to the tracks.
“I figured someone would try to make this argument. Fine, implement a complex transfer tax that reflects the value that public transportation transfers to a specific property. Every transaction gets charge an exorbitant fee to pay for the CTA, regardless of where it’s located. It makes no sense.
” Why not just eliminate the subsidies for driving cars and subsidize mass transit (bus, rail, whatever) more? That would reduce externalities.”
Why should you subsidize mass transit at all? Is the government better suited to calculate the value of mass transit than the millions of people that use it and make employment, transportation, and housing decisions based on their personal circumstances?
“So why not say that driving cars doesn’t provide economic value to the user?” Because obviously it does. But if it’s subsidized then the resources are inefficiently allocated.”
———————————————-
Let’s break this down, shall we?
“Fine, implement a complex transfer tax that reflects the value that public transportation transfers to a specific property. Every transaction gets charge an exorbitant fee to pay for the CTA, regardless of where it’s located. It makes no sense.”
+++++++++++++++++
Which is why it’s not done. Instead, as JohnnyU has mentioned, property values are higher near mass transit stations and so taxes and transfer taxes are higher.
===========================
“Why should you subsidize mass transit at all? Is the government better suited to calculate the value of mass transit than the millions of people that use it and make employment, transportation, and housing decisions based on their personal circumstances?”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Externalities, which by definition do not figure into prices, together with the fact that only government can build mass transit or roads (need for eminent domain). The externalities for mass transit are lower than they are for cars, so subsidies capture some of the savings as to externalities and return them to the users.
===========================
““So why not say that driving cars doesn’t provide economic value to the user?” Because obviously it does. But if it’s subsidized then the resources are inefficiently allocated.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Your statement “Because obviously it does” makes no sense. You stated that mass transit ridership would fall without subsidy, because the economic benefits to the riders would no longer exceed the cost of the fare. Now you say that driving cars provides value to the user? Only after subsidy, Gary. If car driving should be subsidized, why shouldn’t mass transit? Indeed, given that the externalities of mass transit are lower than car driving, subsidies for car driving should be eliminated and subsidies for mass transit increased.
“Except that proximity to public transportation does not uniformly impact the value of all properties. It might add 5% to one property, no value to another (far from all el lines), or detract 30% from the value of a property right next to the tracks.”
—————————–
The impact, as you note, is reflected in the prices of the properties. Assessments (property taxes here) are individualized and can be appealed, so the non-uniform effect on value is accounted for. Likewise, prices are determined by individual negotiation, so the value (transfer taxes here) is also accounted for.
Sorry, Gary, but your argument is specious.
Anyone else just laugh out loud when you read this shit from Sabrina and LL?
“Midwest weather just won’t be as extreme and will become a plus, even with the winters (which are expected to moderate, actually.)
The Midwest will rise again. Milwaukee, Cleveland and Detroit will become attractive again. Heck, look at Columbus. It’s one of the hottest cities in the country right now.”
Literally every time “models” are used to reduce your freedoms or tax you more, they wind up being wrong… remember the first earth day?
Here’s some gems from back then…
“Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” — Harvard biologist George Wald
“We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation.” — Washington University biologist Barry Commoner
“Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.” — New York Times editorial
“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.” — Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich
“Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born… [By 1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.” — Paul Ehrlich
“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” — Denis Hayes, Chief organizer for Earth Day
“Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions…. By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.” — North Texas State University professor Peter Gunter
“In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution… by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.” — Life magazine
“At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt
“Air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” — Paul Ehrlich
“By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate… that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.'” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt
“[One] theory assumes that the earth’s cloud cover will continue to thicken as more dust, fumes, and water vapor are belched into the atmosphere by industrial smokestacks and jet planes. Screened from the sun’s heat, the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born.” — Newsweek magazine
“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.” — Kenneth Watt
now that climate science is a “business”, I’d expect them to keep lying even more to you… anyone that tells you they can predict the future is completely full of shit!
Well, now that you’ve labeled my argument specious I’ll have to concede.
No.
My point about transfer taxes is that the impact of mass transit on property values is not uniform. It’s not like it adds 5% to all properties. If it did then your argument would make sense.
What are these externalities that you speak of? And please show me how well you or government bureaucrats can measure them.
I’ve already said that there shouldn’t be any subsidies for auto transportation. Just because the government screwed that up is not an excuse to screw up public transit. And just to clarify…subsidies don’t deliver 100% of the value of a program. But they do distort it.
My point about transfer taxes is that the impact of mass transit on property values is not uniform. It’s not like it adds 5% to all properties. If it did then your argument would make sense.
=======================
And why “must” it be uniform? Particularly when prices are individually negotiated and assessments are individualized? Why do you “now” insist that mass transit’s effect on prices must be “uniform” or else it cannot be taxed?
JohnnyU pointed out that property taxes and transfer taxes capture increased value and pass on saving when values decrease (too close to the el tracks as you point out).
Externalities? Gary, stop being coy. Externalities for autos include increased pollution (of all types, from smog to water run off), increased land use, use of general tax revenues (over and above gas taxes, even if you add back in gas taxes going to mass transit) for building and maintaining roads. The list goes on, as you know from Google.
As for distortion, I agree. The question is what maximizes social benefit. Also, be careful what you wish for; housing is probably the more subsidized industry there is.
Transfer taxes are a uniform percentage of the price of the property. The benefit of mass transit is not a uniform percentage of the price of a property regardless of appeals or what not. It can be positive, negative, or 0. I’ll spell it out further. Even a property that is worth $500k instead of $800K because it’s right next to the el pays a transfer tax. Therefore, the tax is out of whack with the benefit derived.
So you think you and bureaucrats can put a dollar value on all those externalities and social benefit? And what about the tremendous convenience of autos? Isn’t that an externality as well? Basically public transit is useless to me except in rare cases. It doesn’t get me from point A to point B in a reasonable time frame. But Uber does. And what about the externality of public transit propagating infectious diseases and encouraging crime?
And just to be clear…I oppose all subsidies anywhere and everywhere. I don’t think there should be a mortgage interest deduction and I think Fannie and Freddie shouldn’t exist, although I might be open to market priced insurance for lenders. And the national flood insurance program is an abomination. Perfect example of encouraging bad economic decisions.
“Transfer taxes are a uniform percentage of the price of the property. The benefit of mass transit is not a uniform percentage of the price of a property regardless of appeals or what not. It can be positive, negative, or 0. I’ll spell it out further. Even a property that is worth $500k instead of $800K because it’s right next to the el pays a transfer tax. Therefore, the tax is out of whack with the benefit derived.”
Being right on the el isn’t optimal due to the externalities. Compare this to the same house thats 2 block away (I think even Sabrina can waddle that far) Who has all of the benefits and none of the negative externalities
“So you think you and bureaucrats can put a dollar value on all those externalities and social benefit? And what about the tremendous convenience of autos? Isn’t that an externality as well? Basically public transit is useless to me except in rare cases. It doesn’t get me from point A to point B in a reasonable time frame. But Uber does. And what about the externality of public transit propagating infectious diseases and encouraging crime?”
I can put it on for myself.
I dont trust anyone else to do it for me. I could for someone else but they would likely find in to be wrong.
“I oppose all subsidies anywhere and everywhere”
*this* is where radical libertarianism meets anarcho-syndicalism. They’re both calls to abolish all government.
I wouldn’t call myself a radical but I think libertarian is a fair label. Let me rephrase that. I propose to eliminate all subsidies in cases where it is possible to impose the costs on the users of the service and where there is not a great risk to society from people opting out of the service. So you really can’t charge citizens for police protection or national defense but you can make them pay for the roads they use. You can provide “free vaccines” or elementary education because there would be a great risk to society of people opting out.
“Even a property that is worth $500k instead of $800K because it’s right next to the el pays a transfer tax. Therefore, the tax is out of whack with the benefit derived.”
——————————
Not even a nice try, Gary. The transfer tax will be paid on a price of $500k, which is what you admit the hypothetical property to be worth. The transfer tax will not be paid on a value of $800k, which the hypothetical property did NOT sell for.
Ditto property taxes; they will be paid on a $500k property, not an $800k property.
Now that reality has been spelled out for you, I state again: Your argument is specious, as uniformity in effect on value is not needed, and the systems (assessment valuation and transfer taxes) do not need uniform effects in order to work. All they need is uniform processes, which they have and to which value factors (not result) are irrelevant.
“And what about the tremendous convenience of autos? Isn’t that an externality as well?”
————————–
Your convenience in an auto doesn’t affect me. So no, it is not an externality. Your car’s pollution DOES affect me, and I cannot avoid it. Therefore, it is an externality.
Clear?
“now that climate science is a “business”, I’d expect them to keep lying even more to you… anyone that tells you they can predict the future is completely full of shit!”
Sonies is a denier of climate change even as they are building barriers for billions of dollars around New Orleans, Miami and New York City.
Rock on Sonies.
The Midwest is really well positioned. We won’t have the extreme heat nor flooding. And we’ll still be able to grow food.
“It’s an PetroChem town you dolt.”
JohnnyU is living in the 1980s with HH.
If it was just a “Petrochem” town, it’d be in a bit of trouble right now, wouldn’t it?
Read something. Learn. Study.
How embarrassing for you.
“ JohnnyU is living in the 1980s with HH.
If it was just a “Petrochem” town, it’d be in a bit of trouble right now, wouldn’t it?
Read something. Learn. Study.
How embarrassing for you.”
Ok dolt. Here’s a link to F500 companies in Houston
https://www.houston.org/download_manager/278/6203
Let me know how many aren’t in the PetroChem space
Johnc,
In your world view why should the 500K property pay any transfer tax when it derives a negative benefit from the el? If you claim that transfer taxes pay for the benefit derived from the existence of the el this makes absolutely no sense. Hell, in this case they should get a transfer tax credit.
“As I explained to HH, who we KNOW doesn’t live in Chicago, we have more transportation companies and jobs than anywhere else. We’re still #1 in rail and we have the headquarters of the largest airplane manufacturer in the country along with one of the world’s largest airports.”
You don’t listen. This is LEGACY stuff from the 19th and 20th centuries conceived and built by white men and still running by them. You better damn well be glad it’s still here and not reduced to being run by femcunts, affirm action appointees, low IQ idiots etc. Otherwise, we’ll follow the Johannesburg model. LOL, when is the last time any of us who actually LIVE IN Chicago ever encountered “GATX”?? People in Chicago are trapped on a flat grid, with pozzed culture, and addicted to craft beer and being “a foodie”. They don’t know anything about industry, like when Sabrina was young decades ago. There’s nothing else, the “culture” is long gone too, replaced by everything homosexual or progressive grievances and anti-white racism. No beauty or Western intellect whatsoever. Gone.
“The Midwest will rise again. Milwaukee, Cleveland and Detroit will become attractive again. Heck, look at Columbus. It’s one of the hottest cities in the country right now.”
Oh come on. I guess if Bidenism is going to BAILOUT all of our mismanaged and poorly-run bankrupt anti-white Democrat places, that’s a meager start. But the population demographics of these cities are in the toilet. You cannot create First World cities without a first-world population. Japan and China have successful cities. Duh. Somalia, Mexico, Nigeria, and India (street defecation) not even close.
Paces like Asheville, NC and Columbus OH are a second-rate crapholes that have an inferiority complexes, so try to create a pozzed California model as “alternative”. It’s loaded now with degenerates and homosexuals and the boystown/wickerpark poz culture. Austin, TX also has this complex and plan. So, these places are now loaded with drug addicts, homeless, HIV+, rainbow flags, craft beers/pot smoking, ugly women, and nobody is creating any industry whatsoever. Maybe in the “suburbs” there is, LOL.
Regarding “Science”, Planned Parenthood is probably the biggest denier of it. Multi-million $$$$ denier of basic science and biology.
“GATX”
WTF? The railcar company?
Or is this yet another 8chan/fever-dream thing?
The only people who have ever heard of GATX are people over 65+ like Sabrina, or possibly somebody who happens to find a GATX logo on a golfball in his suburban grandfather’s old golf bag. Good luck getting kids at Whitney Young to care about industry or GATX, when they can choose a career instead in anti-white racism or homosexuality or COVID.
“Sonies is a denier of climate change even as they are building barriers for billions of dollars around New Orleans, Miami and New York City.”
Those wastes of money are called government “jobs” programs
Sorry the only thing I am a denier of is that science is ever “settled”
I’ll once again send you to https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/
where things are not moving as much as you lunatics say they will
” Good luck getting kids at Whitney Young to care about industry or GATX”
They currently have 3 finance jobs and an accountant job and zero ‘trade’ jobs available in Chicago.
Their Manager of Business Development is ~30 and a WY grad.
Good luck getting white American kids *anywhere* to care about manual labor or “industry”. It’s a regular complaint of friends and acquaintances in those businesses here and in more “rustic” locations.
“In your world view why should the 500K property pay any transfer tax when it derives a negative benefit from the el? If you claim that transfer taxes pay for the benefit derived from the existence of the el this makes absolutely no sense. Hell, in this case they should get a transfer tax credit.”
———————————–
Nice try, Gary, but YOU are the one who talked about imposing some complicated tax and both JohnnyU and I pointed out that that was unneeded. A straw man argument. Specifically: A property is worth $500K and transfer tax was based on that $500K. Maybe the property was worth $600K before the “new L” but the diminution in value is reflected in the lower transfer tax.
One hopes that there will be more winners than losers (and thus more transfer tax revenue overall) but unless there is a “taking” of property (note that the taking is of property, not some r.e. agent gamed ‘value’), then there’s no transfer to the singular property owner.
The only one trying to create the complexity you decry is you. We can discuss the philosophy — and complexity — of teasing out individual factors making up “value” some other time, when you aren’t raising a specious argument.
“Japan and China have successful cities. Duh.”
—————————-
Helmet, you truly are ignorant. According to White American historical positions, Asians are considered “colored.” “Yellow” to be precise. You have heard the racist term “yellow peril?”
It is time for you to go away, Helmet. It is bad enough that you are both racist and ignorant, but being inconsistent takes you outside of the eye-roll weird uncle category and puts you into the vicious idiot tank.
Johnc,
The fact that a property impaired by the el pays less transfer tax does NOT solve the problem. They are still harmed by the el and yet they pay some transfer tax. You are the one with the specious argument.
“They are still harmed by the el and yet they pay some transfer tax. You are the one with the specious argument.”
————————–
Gary, the value of the property is still $500k. Why shouldn’t it be taxed on that value when sold?
The only one who wants to chase hypothetical values before taxation is you. That’s what makes your argument specious.
“WTF? The railcar company?”
Like I said- Chicago is a TRANSPORTATION hub. We are #1 in the nation in it.
Tons of rail, air, trucking, logistics companies here. GATX is a great company. That’s exactly who you want to have headquartered here.
I’m sorry you all are too clueless to understand how diverse Chicago’s economy is.
“This is LEGACY stuff from the 19th and 20th centuries”
No, it’s actually not. They are all technology firms now, HH.
But you wouldn’t understand technology.
And your argument against our cities is an argument against America. Because 2/3rds of America’s GDP comes from the cities. And they are a success because of their diversity.
Go away HH. Time has passed you by.
” Gary, the value of the property is still $500k. Why shouldn’t it be taxed on that value when sold?”
You’re trying to claim that the transfer tax properly reflects the value to the property owner from the existence of the el. In the case of this theoretical 500K property it is actually impaired by the el. Yet, your tax system charges them, albeit at a lower level, for a benefit they don’t receive. Don’t you see how that disproves your argument?
Hey Dolt
You must have missed the question I posed.
I’ll post it again for your benefit
“Ok dolt. Here’s a link to F500 companies in Houston
https://www.houston.org/download_manager/278/6203
Let me know how many aren’t in the PetroChem space”
“ You’re trying to claim that the transfer tax properly reflects the value to the property owner from the existence of the el. In the case of this theoretical 500K property it is actually impaired by the el. Yet, your tax system charges them, albeit at a lower level, for a benefit they don’t receive. Don’t you see how that disproves your argument?”
While there is some impairment due to location, wouldn’t the highest bidder be the one that places the highest value (ie user of mass transit) on the location?
Other than a taking situation for an initial build/expansion, it’s a self cleaning oven, no?
“You’re trying to claim that the transfer tax properly reflects the value to the property owner from the existence of the el”
——————————–
Go back and re-read what I wrote, Gary, this time for comprehension. I never said that. I said that an L would benefit an area. I never said that there would never be any losers. With any luck the winners would outnumber the losers. Revenues from property taxes and transfer taxes would increase. You complained about imposing some insanely complicated tax scheme to avoid having losers. I said that is unnecessary. The losses are mitigated by lower property taxes and lower transfer taxes. That’s all.
I don’t know when you came to Chicago, Gary, but I remember the S curve on Lake Shore Drive.You should have heard the screams of the condo owners who had wonderful lake views and then had concrete supports, roads, and traffic noise literally feet from their giant picture windows.
Nobody compensated those people. Nobody SHOULD have compensated those people. Their property taxes went down. Their transfer taxes went down. Society became better off.
And, for the record, there was no “taking” of their property.
Oh, and I never said that the tax reflected the value to the owner. Taxes are never that particularized. Taxes reflect the market price. That goes up or down.
“Taxes reflect the market price. That goes up or down.”
Not necessarily. If there is a general market downturn the city still wants the same amount of taxes for the schools so your taxes won’t go down if everyone’s property values are getting hit.
Market price goes up or down. Taxes,we all agree, only go up.
Hey Dolt
You must have missed the question I posed.
I’ll post it again for your benefit
“Ok dolt. Here’s a link to F500 companies in Houston
https://www.houston.org/download_manager/278/6203
Let me know how many aren’t in the PetroChem space”
I guess it’s preferable to ignore Vs saying I was wrong
“If there is a general market downturn the city still wants the same amount of taxes for the schools so your taxes won’t go down if everyone’s property values are getting hit.”
Indeed! The levy is what it is–there are some limits on how much it can go up, but nothing making it go down. Assessor could cut everyone’s assessment a uniform 90%, no one’s taxes would go down.
“I said that an L would benefit an area. I never said that there would never be any losers. With any luck the winners would outnumber the losers.”
My original point was that charging buyers and sellers of real estate for the CTA makes no sense to me. They are not the direct beneficiaries of the CTA existing. The users are. They are the ones that should pay. And note that buyers and sellers are different than owners because one property could be held by one owner for 30 years (no transfer tax paid) and another could be sold every 5 years with different buyers and sellers paying every time.
And every transfer gets hit whether or not the property gets a benefit from the CTA or not. It’s screwed up.
“And every transfer gets hit whether or not the property gets a benefit from the CTA or not. It’s screwed up.”
Shoulda just called it a ‘debt retirement’ tax, that only applies when City aggregate debt (including CTA and whatever other agencies with authority to tax Chicago property owners) is over XX% of whatever. Then it *is* tied to ownership *and* benefits actually proportionate to the value of the property, wherever it is.
“GATX is a technology company”
What are you talking about? Just because you say something (stupid), doesn’t make it so. GATX engages in both full-service and net leasing of railcars. The most common type of car in the GATX North American fleet is the tank car; other major car types include covered hoppers, open-top hoppers, and gondolas. GATX invests in nearly every type of railcar operated in North America. By 1880 the nation had 17,800 freight locomotives carrying 23,600 tons of freight, and 22,200 passenger locomotives. Legacy.
“And they are a success because of their diversity.”
No proof whatsoever for this. A unified high IQ population would be more productive per capita than what US and European cities have morphed into since 1965. Shanghai and Tokyo and Moscow are miserable backwater failures because they’re not diverse? They’d be worse off with diversity, like dysfunctional US and European cities have become. They torch cars in Paris every weekend. That’s success? Lol.
Normally when one copies verbatim, one includes a link to the source.
Don’t understand what total US engine stock in 1880 has to do with GATX, tho.
But it is interesting that each freight locomotive in 1880 moved ~2,650 pound of freight–daily? Monthly? Annually? Even if daily, still not much; less than a single F-150!
“My original point was that charging buyers and sellers of real estate for the CTA makes no sense to me. They are not the direct beneficiaries of the CTA existing. The users are. They are the ones that should pay. And note that buyers and sellers are different than owners because one property could be held by one owner for 30 years (no transfer tax paid) and another could be sold every 5 years with different buyers and sellers paying every time.
And every transfer gets hit whether or not the property gets a benefit from the CTA or not. It’s screwed up.”
————————————–
Gary, that’s like saying that you don’t benefit from a good school system if you don’t have children in it.
Sabrina’s focus on Chicago being some big transportation hub with her examples of Boeing (corp HQ–small number of employees here) or GATX (tiny employer) is comical
Sabrina there is absolutely nothing special about the German American Transportation Corporation. Let’s call it it’s old ass name because it’s an old ass legacy company. It’s a finance company they own rail cars and leases them. Oh real exciting Sabrina that’s better than Google for the 1,500 employees that work there!
Chicagoland around the rest of the country from a rail standpoint is known as a joke. It’s a giant bottleneck that is very much frowned on by those more modern cities with modern rail networks that don’t have these 19th century bottlenecks.
Chicago does have finance companies, which is what GATX is. But it doesn’t have a lot of heavy industry beyond meatpacking or CPG. GATX buys rail cars and leases them to others–it’s not a rail company those are railroads, GATX is a financial middleman.
Only the localest of Chicagoland yokels would ever posit GATX as some great example of the industry here.
Helmethofer,
Another famous person just died from Covid. Charley Pride.
” Gary, that’s like saying that you don’t benefit from a good school system if you don’t have children in it.”
Not it’s not the same. First, it’s a much easier case to make that everyone benefits from a school system than it is that every property in the city benefits from the CTA. Properties next to the el tracks clearly don’t benefit. Properties far from an el stop don’t benefit much either.
On a secondary note you can argue that property taxes are the wrong way to fund schools for a whole bunch of reasons. Similarly, I will argue that transfer taxes are the wrong way to fund the CTA. Even property taxes, which would not be a great solution, would be a better way. Sales tax would be an even better way. But just doubling fares would be the best way.
And this is what happens when you don’t control the virus. Not a hoax. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-12/swedish-covid-workers-are-quitting-leaving-icus-short-staffed
“On a secondary note you can argue that property taxes are the wrong way to fund schools for a whole bunch of reasons. Similarly, I will argue that transfer taxes are the wrong way to fund the CTA. Even property taxes, which would not be a great solution, would be a better way. Sales tax would be an even better way. But just doubling fares would be the best way.”
============================
Transfer taxes are general taxes, so if it makes you feel better, you could say they capture CTA benefits at one $500k property and parks or schools at another $500k property. The mix of the components of the value is irrelevant. $500k is $500K.
As for subsidies, in a perfect world they would be allocated so as to maximize social benefit, after eliminating externalities.
And I think you will find that a good mass transit system is a general good, albeit benefiting some properties more than others.
“And this is what happens when you don’t control the virus. Not a hoax.”
People don’t understand geometric growth. Not even some of the supposed model forecasters. Current casualty estimates are based off of one terribly flawed assumption: that the growth of infection levels off. That isn’t happening. So while 3,000/day might seem like a lot & 100k deaths/month, that is premature. We’re going higher.
And when people say “follow the science” you really need to get into the details because I haven’t seen any peer reviewed study that suggests restricting behavior results in decreased transmission. Sure mass gatherings likely result in increased spread, but many of these other restrictions are just suppositions.
And if these suppositions aren’t grounded in reality which it appears they aren’t, there’s going to be a whole lot of finger pointing in the future when this virus is ripping through resulting in ever more deaths.
At this point people should hope & pray there’s only 3k deaths/day in January & February, because that seems like an optimistic scenario.
” I haven’t seen any peer reviewed study that suggests restricting behavior results in decreased transmission. Sure mass gatherings likely result in increased spread, but many of these other restrictions are just suppositions.”
I don’t know if this is peer reviewed or not but it’s in JAMA: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2772155
The bottom line is that the virus is transmitted when people get next to each other. If people don’t get next to each other as much it has to slow down the transmission. I know that cell phone data is showing that the restrictions are reducing interactions. It just makes sense.
The one thing that I have found interesting is that I haven’t seen a single country or state, regardless of how pro-active they are, that just goes up and up without turning down at some point. I thought for sure that India was screwed because of their population density but they turned it around. Same for Sweden. I have to believe that at some point it gets scary enough that people change their behavior on their own.
“As for subsidies, in a perfect world they would be allocated so as to maximize social benefit, after eliminating externalities.”
Yeah. We don’t live in a perfect world. Bureaucrats are totally incapable of measuring social benefit or allocating the costs of such.
“And I think you will find that a good mass transit system is a general good, albeit benefiting some properties more than others.”
I would believe that if the users paid 100% of the cost. In the absence of that users will make decisions that are not in the economic interest of the group. They will derive $100 of value for every $200 spent – or something like that. And, no, I don’t believe that I derive value from someone else riding the CTA at my expense.
“Sabrina there is absolutely nothing special about the German American Transportation Corporation.”
Yep, the rails are booming. And the railroads and auxiliary industries choose to be in Chicago for a reason. Because we are a hub. And transports create thousands of good paying jobs.
Many jobs don’t need a college degree. Important to set up internships and apprenticeships. I have friends who work in the rails and it’s hard for them to hire because of the drug testing requirements.
Interestingly, Rockford is seeing a big surge in jobs at its airport because Amazon has chosen to fly some flights into there versus O’Hare. Probably cheaper and easier to get to its big distribution centers on the south side of the Chicagoland area.
But if you must know other companies other than GATX and Boeing that are in Chicago: Echo Global (ECHO) has been hiring like crazy the last few years and has said they’re in Chicago because it’s the hub of transportation.
John Bean (JBT) has been in Chicago forever. While it’s also big in food, it makes a lot of airport/airlines equipment like jet gangways to board, de-icing equipment and airplane towing equipment. Of course, that business is getting hammered this year.
There are dozens of other companies, many much smaller and not publicly traded, in transportation in Chicago.
If you don’t understand the importance of transportation to the US economy, then you are clueless. There is a huge eco-system for freight and transportation here. It’s why Uber Freight was put here. They could put that HQ in ANY city, right? Why Chicago?
Maybe because United Airlines headquarters would be across the street and John Bean just up the block.
Lots of transportation talent in Chicago.
“I thought for sure that India was screwed because of their population density but they turned it around. Same for Sweden. I have to believe that at some point it gets scary enough that people change their behavior on their own.”
I similarly thought that India & Brazil were screwed due to their shanty towns/favelas. For India at least it looks like their death rate is 1/4 of ours. This is probably due to the BCG vaccine being administered around birth. It’s one of the phase 3 trials here for covid, but still stuck in phase 3. It’s just a vaccine for something else that seems to reduce the severity of covid.
As a % of their population India also has way less old people. 42% of the US deaths have been in nursing homes and assisted living centers.
But India’s cases are on the decline and although Brazil has a second wave it looks like it’s slowing down.
“Interestingly, Rockford is seeing a big surge in jobs at its airport because Amazon has chosen to fly some flights into there versus O’Hare. Probably cheaper and easier to get to its big distribution centers on the south side of the Chicagoland area.“
I don’t believe the new one off 294 (Alsip?) is turned over yet
In what world is it easier to get to the Southside form Rockford Vs Ohare? If Amazon has DC’s on the north end of town, I’d agree but south? Going 39 to 80 isn’t saving anytime
Do you even live in Illinois?
PS – Are you ever going to respond to your idiotic claim that Houston isn’t a PetroChem town?
Or are you ok with being a liar?
“I would believe that if the users paid 100% of the cost. In the absence of that users will make decisions that are not in the economic interest of the group. They will derive $100 of value for every $200 spent – or something like that. And, no, I don’t believe that I derive value from someone else riding the CTA at my expense.”
——————————–
Gary, given that car transportation is more heavily subsidized than mass transit, you can’t make that assertion without removing subsidies for auto transport at the same time.
As for you benefiting from others using mass transit, you are wrong. imagine the increased travel times and congestion you would face with all those riders suddenly driving. Don’t believe me? Look at the data from the 1980s on congestion and travel times before and after the orange line started up.
“Gary, given that car transportation is more heavily subsidized than mass transit, you can’t make that assertion without removing subsidies for auto transport at the same time.”
Precisely why I would remove all auto subsidies. Remember, I don’t like subsidies.
“imagine the increased travel times and congestion you would face with all those riders suddenly driving. Don’t believe me? Look at the data from the 1980s on congestion and travel times before and after the orange line started up.”
You are assuming that everyone would have made the same decisions about the location of businesses and where to live. They wouldn’t have. I’ve never believed that dense cities made sense and finally others are starting to agree with me.
“You are assuming that everyone would have made the same decisions about the location of businesses and where to live. They wouldn’t have. I’ve never believed that dense cities made sense and finally others are starting to agree with me.”
——————————-
The mass transit came after the businesses were located, Gary, so no, I am not making that assumption. The point is, the operation of the Orange line affected ALL Chicago area highways and travel times, since jams and congestion on one highway spill over onto other highways.
As for locations of businesses, I fear you are wrong there, too, or at least not as “right” as you believe yourself to be. ANY urban-study economist will tell you that cities naturally form at break in bulk points. Break in bulk points occur at either natural features (e.g., a harbor or river mouth at a lake, hint, hint) or where transport costs for the final mile would be cheapest if the area is relatively featureless (e.g., Oklahoma City).
So yes, “everyone would have made the same decisions about locations of businesses and where to live” now, as they did before: Chicago is located at a natural break in bulk point, and now we have network effects carrying things forward.
Sing and dance all you want, but YOU, personally, benefit from a good mass transit system, even if you, personally, do not use it. Given that mass transit has fewer externalities than car transportation, auto subsidies should be eliminated before mass transit subsidies are touched.
“Another famous person just died from Covid. Charley Pride.”
he was born in 1934! I can’t even do the math. Hang on…
He was 86! Gimme a break. Shut down the entire Western white world over this hoax? I heard that China, S Korea, and Japan are fully open for business. But not the West, it’s being targeted. The UK is the simulation country to see what the judeo-NWO-pedophile/Anal axis can get away with, so they push the most hard core lockdowns and restrictions there and then watch how the people react to them. The rest of the world is not under tyranny.
PS I had reason to be in Blue Island on Saturday, so drove around Old Western Ave and Broadway, ended up in Robbins. The canal is stinking pretty good right now, maybe the rain of Friday? Anyway, decided to take Western Ave all the way home, and let me tell you, for driving thru 1/2 of Chicago, it’s not looking very good. It’s just tired and the population is obviously incapable of producing a First World environment. Evergreen Park retail looked OK though. The rest was bad credit car lots, vacant buildings, chicken wing places, St. Rita HS and McKinley Park looked poor. Then I went by the Columbus statue in Arrigo Park and the Italians were forced by the anti-White racists to put up an Italian-America pride thing, on which “Tony Danza” was depicted. Now how humiliating is that, comparing a sitcom actor to a brave Explorer who braved the unknown Atlantic Ocean on 3 wooden sailing vessels in the 1400s?
These anti-white bigots prefer this history?? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/11/mexico-templo-tower-of-skulls-archaeologists-aztec
“He was 86! Gimme a break.”
I thought your issue was that you never heard of anyone famous dying of Covid. He was famous and he died. Why does his age matter in convincing you that people actually die from this?
And do you think it’s a hoax that Mississippi has run out of ICU beds? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/2020-12-11-covid-live-updates-vaccine-news-n1250840/ncrd1250971#blogHeader If you believe that then explain how you pull off a hoax like that. How many people do you have to convince to go along with the hoax? Who orchestrates that and how?
They’ve run out of beds in parts of CA and TX as well.
“The mass transit came after the businesses were located”
The first el tracks were built in 1892 so every decision after that was distorted by subsidies – business location, housing, employment. That would be the vast majority of what exists today.
“They’ve run out of beds in parts of CA and TX as well.”
Yep. Fresno has run out of beds. Some Reno hospitals in the over flow now. Didn’t they cancel skiing in Tahoe?
It’s amazing how coordinated the “hoax” is. Globally.
How embarrassing for anyone who thinks the pandemic isn’t real.
“I heard that China, S Korea, and Japan are fully open for business.”
Nope. Better read up HH. South Korean cases are spiking again. Of course, that means 1,000 cases instead of 220,000 like the US. But it’s enough that they are likely to put on severe restrictions again.
Also, just a reminder that HH doesn’t live in Chicago. Nor is he driving at his age.
The first el tracks were built in 1892 so every decision after that was distorted by subsidies – business location, housing, employment. That would be the vast majority of what exists today.———————-
The El was subsidized in 1892? Gary, whatever you’re smoking, stop, you cannot handle it.
“The El was subsidized in 1892? Gary, whatever you’re smoking, stop, you cannot handle it.”
Technically, no. But who owned the land that it ran on? Was it sold? Was it leased? And the first company went bankrupt after a few years so I guess the owner was subsidizing the usage. Certainly by 1945 it was directly subsidized, perhaps earlier. Why was that? How profitable was this enterprise?
“ Also, just a reminder that HH doesn’t live in Chicago. Nor is he driving at his age.”
Also just a reminder that Sabrina is a dolt and a textbook example of Dunning- Kruger.
No further discussion on Houston?
“But who owned the land that it ran on? Was it sold? Was it leased? And the first company went bankrupt after a few years so I guess the owner was subsidizing the usage. Certainly by 1945 it was directly subsidized, perhaps earlier. Why was that? How profitable was this enterprise?”
—————————–
Leased from the city and private losses are not relevant to public subsidies under any stretch of the imagination. As for why there were private losses — dunno, bad management? inaccurate cost estimates? I don’t recall low ridership being blamed, but that’s possible I suppose.
Why was it directly subsidized, you ask? Because the costs of externalities mass transit avoids, coupled with the social benefits it confers, exceed the amount of the subsidy. Any other questions?
“Because the costs of externalities mass transit avoids, coupled with the social benefits it confers, exceed the amount of the subsidy. Any other questions?
You are taking preferences (likely ones you agree with) and treating the as absolute truth (Kinda like Bucktown)
Also Gary is correct you cannot assume that people will act the exact same with/without incentives. Incentives change behavior
What preferences am I taking as absolute truth? That cars are more heavily subsidized than mass transit has been universally known for a very long time.
Nor have I ever assumed that people will act the exact same way with/without incentives. That there would be a city at the mouth of the Chicago river, however, is a given. No one would ignore the break in bulk point. The fact remains that subsidies make sense if the avoided cost of externalities plus the public good given exceeds the subsidy.
There there benefits to private (read auto) transportation? Absolutely. Do those benefits exceed the subsidies autos receive, not to mention the externalities autos impose? Probably not.
And, by the way, you cannot change or ignore historical facts, particularly on the whim and caprice of real estate shills flogging their wares; Bucktown does not go South of Armitage.
“How many people do you have to convince to go along with the hoax? Who orchestrates that and how?”
Soros, of course! He hires a bunch of crisis actors, and voila.
Now, why no one thought that the refugee caravan might be the same sort of thing is a bit of a mystery.
“Bucktown does not go South of Armitage”
Yes, because it doesn’t exist. It’s just “Logan Square”.
Claiming otherwise is racist.
Racist? Howso racist?
Now, transphobic I can see, given Helmet’s anal agenda, but racist?
“What preferences am I taking as absolute truth? That cars are more heavily subsidized than mass transit has been universally known for a very long time.”
-costs of externalities mass transit avoids
-Social benefits it confers
These are preferences and while it might be conventional wisdom, its not an absolute (or Universally known)
“Nor have I ever assumed that people will act the exact same way with/without incentives. That there would be a city at the mouth of the Chicago river, however, is a given. No one would ignore the break in bulk point. The fact remains that subsidies make sense if the avoided cost of externalities plus the public good given exceeds the subsidy.”
Agree with you on the city location, however my point wrt incentives was in regards to Mass Transit Vs Auto.
Do you consider the Interstate system subsidy a net positive?
“Racist? Howso racist?”
Trying to differentiate parts of Logan Square from each other.
There is no Bucktown, north, south, east, or west of Armitage. Only Logan Square.
Now, if you want to call the area south of Logan Square, and north of Wicker Park “Bucktown”, I guess that’s ok, but that’s all south of Bloomingdale.
“Because the costs of externalities mass transit avoids, coupled with the social benefits it confers, exceed the amount of the subsidy.”
You assume that some government bureaucrats know how to measure and calculate all this stuff. Bad assumption.
And stop bringing up auto subsidies. I already stated those are a really bad idea. And I’m fine with taxing the crap out of gasoline if anyone can figure out how the measure the cost of those externalities.
“You assume that some government bureaucrats know how to measure and calculate all this stuff. Bad assumption.”
————————-
And you assume that these things cannot be measured. Does that mean that the externalities do not exist? That they cannot be estimated?
As for not bringing up auto subsidies and externalities: Gary, ignoring them doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Nor does it mean that those externalities cannot be approximated, nor that they are nuiversally considered to be greater than the subsidies/externalities of mass transit.
What we do know is that a transfer tax is based on sale price, what the contribution of proximity to mass transit to that price might be.
“Do you consider the Interstate system subsidy a net positive?”
—————————
Yes, I do. Mass transit for going to densely populated areas on a daily basis or where aggregate demand justifies it (e.g., Amtrak BosWash service). Highways for trucking, long family trips, etc.
Problem is that subsidies for interstate highways need to be adjusted, in tandem with mass transit systems, so that highways don’t contribute to urban sprawl by encouraging commuting into cities. We can tax the crap out of gasoline, like they do in Europe. Give rebates to people in low population density areas who need to live there.
“ And you assume that these things cannot be measured. Does that mean that the externalities do not exist? That they cannot be estimated?”
Measured and estimated aren’t the same thing. Biases creep into estimates.
Biases aren’t necessarily incorrect, but they should be acknowledged
“ Problem is that subsidies for interstate highways need to be adjusted, in tandem with mass transit systems, so that highways don’t contribute to urban sprawl by encouraging commuting into cities. We can tax the crap out of gasoline, like they do in Europe. Give rebates to people in low population density areas who need to live there.“
Can’t we have urban sprawl if those in suburbia utilize mass transit?
Who gets to decide who lives where?
“And you assume that these things cannot be measured. Does that mean that the externalities do not exist? That they cannot be estimated?”
Sure, they can be estimated and they can be off by hundreds of percents. But not only do a bunch of bureaucrats estimate this crap but they decide what the alternative should be and cram it down our throats. If they can estimate the externalities of autos then they should convert those to a gas tax and let the market figure out the alternatives. It might be the el, buses, Uber, relocation, telecommuting but at least you wouldn’t be distorting decision making.
“As for not bringing up auto subsidies and externalities: Gary, ignoring them doesn’t mean they don’t exist.”
I didn’t say ignore them. I said don’t pretend that I support auto subsidies and then use it in your argument. I don’t support auto subsidies. It’s another distortion.
“What we do know is that a transfer tax is based on sale price, what the contribution of proximity to mass transit to that price might be.”
We’ve been around and around on this and have not reached agreement. A transfer tax makes no sense. Two homes next door to each other. One gets sold 5 times in 20 years and the other never gets sold. Why is one paying for the CTA and the other isn’t? Why is the $1.5 MM house 1 1/2 miles from the el paying the same transfer tax as the $1.5 MM house 2 blocks from the el? Why not tax furniture sales to pay for the el?
“I didn’t say ignore them. I said don’t pretend that I support auto subsidies and then use it in your argument. I don’t support auto subsidies. It’s another distortion.”
—————————
I never said you supported auto subsidies, Gary, I just said you can’t slam mass transit subsidies without acknowledging that auto subsidies are larger than mass transit subsidies. Auto subsidies should be eliminated first.
As for one property being sold 5 times and the other not at all, why should the government forego revenue as a result of private decisions? Or do you now want to tell us that teh government should “estimate” how long people “should” stay in a property and tax accordingly?
El subsidies come from general revenue Gary, along with a slice of state/federal gas tax trust fund monies, yes, furniture sales are being taxed to support the CTA.
And sing and dance all you want, but transfer taxes are based on sale prices. The fact that one property is worth $X due to A, B, and C, reasons and another is worth $X due to A, D, and E, reasons is irrelevant. They are selling for the same price, so they get taxed the same amount.
Did anyone see the Mag Mile tax got shot down? The extreme left media (aka mainstream incl. Tribune) was calling it a “revitalization plan”. Mag Mile owners were going to get taxed to fix up all the anti-white racists’ and anti-Semites’ destruction of their boutiques and stores.
Only one media source had a legit headline, and it was CoStar:
Chicago Delays Creation of Michigan Avenue Special Taxing District
Mayor Sought to Levy Property Owners to Fix Up Infrastructure Battered by Looting
Funny how Lori Lightfoot wants to punish Jewish property owners for the destruction of BLM racists, who are ironically supported by Jews because BLM is anti-white. Strange times indeed.
Whats hilarious about the “Michigan Avenue Special Taxing District” is this area is already among the highest taxed in the nation and apparently the city is stretched too thin on resources to adequately protect it. So their solution is to create a special taxing district that we all know will go into the general fund anyway & be wasted and nothing will change.
If the government cannot protect this district currently when it’s among the highest taxed in the nation, what makes them think shoveling more money to government would fix that problem?
If the merchants here need more protection for their property that is going to be private sector security guards who earn considerably less than public sector union CPD and whose directives are very clear and can’t easily be muddled by the city bureaucracy.
“Mag Mile owners were going to get taxed to fix up all the anti-white racists’ and anti-Semites’ destruction of their boutiques and stores.”
Once again, HH doesn’t live in Chicago. He has NO idea what is going on on the Mag Mile (as this statement obviously indicates.)
The “destruction” has already been repaired. Months ago. Insurance covered that.
The stores have reopened except for those where the retailer went BK (Brooks Brother) or those where they boarded up and never unboarded (Victoria’s Secret flagship, Columbia Sportswear flagship). Victoria’s Secret has been in disputes with various landlords around the country, including in NYC. I’m not sure why Columbia has never reopened as it has reopened most of its other stores worldwide after COVID shutdowns.
Otherwise, the holiday decorations are up including the various Christmas trees.
But, mostly, the tourists and shoppers are missing. It’s quiet. Some stores still have lines to get in due to capacity restraints (like Zara) but most are simply empty.
It’s very sad for the retailers. And it trickles down. It means fewer sales for Garretts Popcorn, for instance, although hopefully people are ordering online and getting it shipped.
But the loss of tourism is clearly impacting the Mag Mile.
They want more security presence because less people means more crime, believe it or not.
“ They want more security presence because less people means more crime, believe it or not.”
If There’s no ramifications for acting the fool, more people won’t affect the crime rate.
Any more insight on Houston you’d like to share?
“As for one property being sold 5 times and the other not at all, why should the government forego revenue as a result of private decisions?”
It’s not about how much revenue the government gets. It’s about how closely the revenue sources parallel the benefit received. I’m fundamentally opposed to random sources of revenue from people that don’t proportionately benefit from the service being funded.
“El subsidies come from general revenue Gary, along with a slice of state/federal gas tax trust fund monies”
They also come from transfer taxes, which are separate from general revenue. That’s my issue.
“yes, furniture sales are being taxed to support the CTA.”
No more than auto sales or computer sales. My point was that imposing a surtax on just furniture sales to support the CTA would make as much sense as the transfer tax.
“transfer taxes are based on sale prices. The fact that one property is worth $X due to A, B, and C, reasons and another is worth $X due to A, D, and E, reasons is irrelevant. They are selling for the same price, so they get taxed the same amount.”
No. The tax is based on purchase price X # transactions. It’s just bizarre and it has nothing to do with public transportation.
November sales will be out this week.
Due to the holidays, I’ll have new posts Monday-Wednesday this week and next week.
Gary is right–the RE transfer tax is often a feature of overtaxed European countries & their former colonies where they call it a “stamp” tax.
It’s another one of those taxes targeted at specific economic activities like the Chicago tire disposal tax, the Chicago exorbitant telecom taxes, the Chicago bottled water tax, the Chicago pop tax and the Chicago liquor/beer/wine taxes.
The city & county has been allowed to do this via incremental steps aka “boiling the frog”. It just so happens the real estate transfer tax affects housing viscosity and housing prices both negatively.
We all pay for the housing price affects one way or another whether its by higher rents or lower RE sales prices than would be the case without this excise tax.
But those whose industry depends on transaction volume are much more affected by this day to day and acutely aware.
Austerity cannot come to the state of Illinois, Cook County or the city of Chicago fast enough.
Oh I forgot about the Chicago vehicle lease taxes which can be over 20% as well hah! Boiling the frog, as it were.
But Sabrina loves her crap museums here and sings their praises. Straight out of a 1980s Forbes ad to get companies to move here.
“ November sales will be out this week”
Can you review Houston’s housing market as well?
No. The tax is based on purchase price X # transactions. It’s just bizarre and it has nothing to do with public transportation.
=======================================
I assume you’re talking about the aggregate and not individual properties.
It has everything to do with public transportation, Gary, and everything to do with parks, fire and police protection, education, water main replacement, and everything else government does. That one property benefits more from one factor than it does from another factor, and vice versa for another property, does not change the fact that the sale price is $X and the transfer tax is based on the sale price.
Also, you have an intellectual disconnect in your position: If the tax is based on aggregate purchases (number of transactions) times purchase prices, then there is no reason why the tax cannot be based on aggregate benefits. The fact that any one particular property does not get the average/median value of any one particular benefit (parks, mass transit, etc.) is irrelevant. It’s obviously receiving an overall package of benefits equal to the benefits value of another property selling for the same price in another location. The mix of benefits can be different, but the property price is still the same.
So, a $2m house in Chicago gets hit with $24,000 in transfer tax. Which is a lot–1.2%
Do you know what a $2m house in Washington state will cost in transfer taxes these days?
$42,000. 2.1%!!
Do you know what a $2m condo in NYC will cost in transfer taxes these days?
$61,500. Over 3%.
Yes, in each case, a $200k sale is at a much lower rate, but *still* higher than Chicago.
It was dumb to tag it as a “CTA” tax–should have tied it to pension deficit, and have it go away when pension funding level hits XX%
“It was dumb to tag it as a “CTA” tax–should have tied it to pension deficit, and have it go away when pension funding level hits XX%”
——————————-
CTA is a heck of a lot more popular and used than government pensions. Tie it to CTA (and parks, fire, etc.) and you get more public support than you do a “pension” tax.
The City’s pension tax is on water. Everybody uses water. In the famous words of Mark Twain: “Whiskey is for drinking. Water is for fighting over.”
Gary can you confirm if this Rodkin assertion is true?
Rodkin writes:
“At the end of November, there were enough condos on the market in the Loop to fuel 24 months of sales, according to end-of-the-month data posted Dec. 14 by the Chicago Association of Realtors and Midwest Real Estate Data. There were 629 condos for sale in the neighborhood, where 26 condos were sold during the month.”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/loop-condo-market-worst-mid-2000s-crash
Do you reckon Loop condo supply = 24 months? (629/26 = 24.2)
Rodkin says he’s using “neighborhood designations … from the city’s official list of 77 neighborhoods. The data is not broken out by smaller designations such as Streeterville or River North.”
Redfin says the number of ‘All Residences’ (not just condos) for sale in The Loop at month-end November = 588. Redfin says Loop homes sold (not just condos) in November 2020 = 122. So for all types of Loop residence (not just condos) in Nov, supply was 4.8 months (588/122), a bit higher than the citywide average of 4.2, and twice as high as the MSA’s average of 2.4.
Redfin doesn’t tabulate the type of housing sold at the neighborhood level, though they do specify it at the citywide and metro level.
Rodkin says: “Citywide at the end of November, there were enough condos on the market to fuel a little less than six months of sales.”
That’s close to Redfin, which says citywide there were 6,605 condos for sale and 962 sold during Nov. 6605/962 = 6.9 — close enough to his number.
Here’s Redfin’s data on past years’ citywide month end Nov condo supply (ratio of inventory to sales).
2012 = 4.3
2013 = 4.3
2014 = 5.7
2015 = 4.8
2016 = 3.9
2017 = 4.0
2018 = 4.8
2019 = 5.6
2020 = 6.9
“Gary can you confirm if this Rodkin assertion is true?”
His math is usually pretty good but there might be a dozen ways to calculate this and I could spend a day discussing it. Here is the data I might look at:
Loop condo Nov closings: 26
Loop condo Nov inventory: 630
Loop condo Nov contracts: 43 but that number will drop
So it could be 24 months or it could be 14.6 months. Either way it’s a lot.
“Do you reckon Loop condo supply = 24 months? (629/26 = 24.2)”
24 months of Nov-20 sales.
CAR doesn’t use a single months sales to calculate MoS: from the November CAR data:
1,993 properties were sold in the City of Chicago in November 2020
The City of Chicago’s inventory is … 9,433 homes in November 2020.
The month’s supply of inventory [is] 4.3 in November 2020.
Using Rodkin’s formula, it should have been 4.73 months of supply.
So Rodkin is using his own style of analysis to suit his narrative.
If you look at both 3 and 6 months of sales in “The Loop” (using Redfin), current inventory is about 12 months of supply–which is still pretty bad, especially given the unlisted developer inventory.
Oh…and Redfin is just wrong about 122 homes selling in the Loop in November. There are no SFHs there. Maybe they don’t know where the Loop is.
“His math is usually pretty good”
You have low standards. Dude can’t even use Median correctly:
“The median price is the midpoint between the top-priced home and the bottom-priced home.”
Gary
Since you’re doing requests
How’s the Bronzeville market fairing, especially with renovated properties?
“Redfin is just wrong about 122 homes selling in the Loop in November.”
I don’t see that anywhere.
26 on the data table for Nov. for “The Loop”, which is bounded by the river, the lake and Roosevelt.
53 in the last month, 24 in the last week (thanks to 12 St Regis closings), using dumb searches.
Any non-simplistic calculation would likely be in the ballpark of your 14.6 months–maybe 12.5 to 18. Which is *really* bad–no need to exaggerate.
Again, using simple data collection, it looks like $500k-$1m are ~18 months supply, and $1m+ are over 18 months (looks like 18, but is skewed down by St Regis closings), while under $500k units are about 9-10 months.
I don’t think Rodkin is trying to promote any particular narrative. A lot of official calculations of months of supply use a 12 month average of sales. However, the market can undergo a lot of changes in 12 months – e.g. this year. So I think it’s reasonable to base it on current month activity. While Rodkin uses closings I feel like even that doesn’t reflect the most current conditions so I use contracts.
Oh…and WRT Bronzeville…that would be a bit more work since it’s a neighborhood and not a community area. That’s not pre-packaged for me.
“don’t think Rodkin is trying to promote any particular narrative”
Oh nothing in particular, just one that will get attention.
And “worse than Lake Forest” is better than “really awful, but not as bad as Lake Forest”.
“A lot of official calculations of months of supply use a 12 month average of sales.”
Note that I was using 3 and 6 month averages. yes, at the moment, a 12 month average would be expected to be misleading, but so is using a NSA November count as the only marker.
For the 3 prior years, November has been the 2d slowest month–more Loop condo sales in February than November–only January is slower, and even that by ~-12%. 3-yr avg December is +25% from November, and this year has been all about delayed closings.
If December hits 50 sales (just below 3 year avg, and 4 fewer than last year), is that really a story of how the market rebounded strong, and now there is only 10 months of supply? GTFO!
Which is why using no smoothing is utter BS.
Yes, November and December are really slow months but inventory MOS is going to be seasonal no matter how you calculate it. That’s why you always look at it relative to previous years.
This year is so weird that I temporarily stopped using the canned MOS graph and I’m calculating my own based on current month contracts written. I think it tells a more accurate story since contract activity has been shifted out this year – as has been listings.
“Redfin is just wrong about 122 homes selling in the Loop in November. There are no SFHs there. Maybe they don’t know where the Loop is.”
Home sales for Redfin in this instance refers to ‘All Residential Property Types’: condo/coop, multi-family, single-family, and townhouse. Redfin apparently doesn’t breakout condo-sale data at the level of neighborhood, but they do provide it for the city and msa.
Redfin’s definition of the Loop is the area encircled by the river, Roosevelt Road, and LSD — the same official city designation Rodkin says he’s using too.
(Zillow and Redfin use slightly different definitions of “Near North Side,” which makes comparing their data more trouble than its worth.)
I assume most of the Loop’s inventory is condo, so when Redfin says 122 homes sold I figure that’d be ~ 4x Rodkin’s number. Given how far apart they are on Nov Loop condo MoS, it’s odd that Rodkin and Redfin roughly agree on the Nov citywide condo MoS. But it’s not a big deal. Nobody’s numbers ever exactly match anybody else’s.
If his goal was to highlight a downtown hood with surging supply, he could have found areas in worse shape than the overall Loop, which is a big area. But Rodkin says “The data is not broken out by smaller designations such as Streeterville or River North” — which is not true. Redfin offers data on 200+ Chicago hoods.
We could debate this, but imho the DT hood with the biggest surge in inventory is (unsurprisingly) the Mag Mile, followed by the New East Side and Streeterville. River North’ been hurt but looks a bit better than those other three.
I would have highlighted Streeterville: it’s got more inventory than the Mal Mile and older stock than the New East Side. But Rodkin’s unaware that data on Streeterville even exist. sigh.
wojo–where’d you find the 122 number?
I looked at this:
https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/35157/IL/Chicago/The-Loop/housing-market
It sez 26 “homes” sold in the loop in Nov-20.
“We could debate this, but imho the DT hood with the biggest surge in inventory is (unsurprisingly) the Mag Mile, followed by the New East Side and Streeterville. River North’ been hurt but looks a bit better than those other three.”
wojo, the problem with you looking at the neighborhood data like this is that the “Mag Mile” isn’t even a neighborhood. And what do you count as that? From the River to where? Or South of the River? And only buildings with their doors directly on Michigan Avenue?
Lots of luxury high rises ON the Mag Mile, which is where the excess in inventory is concentrated.
Similarly, the “new east side” is, I’m assuming, Lakeshore East. Hard to compare that area to other parts of downtown as there are 2 new buildings with inventory. I’ve been taking a look at a bunch of buildings there and buyers can get some deals in some of them but the inventory isn’t overwhelming, as it was in 2008 when the bubble burst and entire buildings deconverted back to apartments to get rid of the inventory.
River North and Streeterville both have a decent amount of luxury inventory. Again, if you’re looking for luxury, you should be able to negotiate a great deal.
Streeterville has buildings like One Bennett Park which has a lot of luxury inventory.
“But Sabrina loves her crap museums here and sings their praises. Straight out of a 1980s Forbes ad to get companies to move here.”
Bob, don’t know where you live but in the last week over 15 condos in the new St Regis have closed. More to come as they’ve sold 46% of the 400 units.
Someone IS interested in living in Chicago. Rich people. People who are doing great and interesting things. Curing diseases. Operating companies. Making art for millions.
THAT is why people are in Chicago. THAT is why they keep coming here and why we keep building 70+ story high rises.
Chicago is one of the world’s great cities.
I’m sorry you live in some city that isn’t. But that isn’t the case for the rest of us.
Please try and find happiness. Somehow. Somewhere.
Also, a lot of the landlords who have been renting out 1-bedrooms or smaller 2-bedrooms in condo buildings anywhere downtown, are trying to sell and get out.
It’s really hard keeping up with what is going on in the luxury rental buildings.
How many landlords are willing to give away 3 to 5 months free rent? And other incentives?
How many are willing to reduce rent?
I’ve heard stories of many long-time landlords just listing their condos now to get out of the game.
Also, if you want to know what’s going on out there in the luxury market, take a look at this 3-bedroom that just sold in 30 W. Oak in the Gold Coast.
30 W Oak, you may recall, was one of the hottest buildings in the city coming out of the housing bust during the 2010-2012 time period.
This unit came on the market in April 2019 and just sold this week.
Unit #11B:
Sold in August 2013 for $3.3 million
Originally listed in April 2019 for $2.95 million
Reduced several times
Listing said “PRICE HAS NEVER BEEN THIS LOW”
Sold in December 2020 for $1.95 million
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/30-W-Oak-St-APT-11B-Chicago-IL-60610/87720619_zpid/
“ Bob, don’t know where you live but in the last week over 15 condos in the new St Regis have closed. More to come as they’ve sold 46% of the 400 units.”
You know this isn’t a good thing?
“ Sold in August 2013 for $3.3 million
Originally listed in April 2019 for $2.95 million
Reduced several times
Listing said “PRICE HAS NEVER BEEN THIS LOW”
Sold in December 2020 for $1.95 million”
HAWT ™ or Not HAWT ™
“I assume you’re talking about the aggregate and not individual properties…
That one property benefits more from one factor than it does from another factor, and vice versa for another property, does not change the fact that the sale price is $X and the transfer tax is based on the sale price.”
No. I’m talking about individual properties. Two identical homes next door to each other. One sells 5 times in 20 years and the other doesn’t sell. One property pays the transfer tax 5 times and the other pays no transfer tax. The tax is not just based on the sale price. It’s also based on the number of transactions. Why is this good policy? It’s totally arbitrary. It could just as easily be a tax on bandwidth usage.
” The tax is not just based on the sale price. It’s also based on the number of transactions. Why is this good policy? It’s totally arbitrary. It could just as easily be a tax on bandwidth usage.”
——————————-
Gary, the tax yield in aggregate is based on all transactions, but that’s also based on all properties, not one individual property. My decision to sell 123 Main Street 20 years ago was utterly irrelevant to your decision to sell that same property 10 years ago and both our decisions are irrelevant to Joe Blow’s decision to sell today. Why should irrelevant personal decisions years ago merit giving someone a pass on taxes today?
Transaction taxes are on transactions. That is all. If you engage in a taxed transaction, you have to pay a tax. There’s no “overall merit” factor, nor should there be. Would you argue that there should be a cap on how much you pay in sales taxes in any given week?
If you don’t want to pay transaction taxes on selling a property, then don’t sell it. Spouting irrelevancies about what others did 20 years ago as a reason not to pay taxes based on your transactions, however, is just inane.
Besides, the more government brings in in property transaction taxes/fees, the lower sales taxes (or CTA fares) can be. Money is fungible.
Incorrect johnc. Anyone that has taken a finance or economics course knows that this transaction tax isn’t merely “fungible” as you posit money to be but rather causes a deadweight loss in terms of a certain number of transactions/economic activity not being done due to it resulting in price discovery being impeded.
That’s what is so dangerous with your line of thinking is that some want to even apply it to securities which would have a devastating affect on the market, or more likely just cause the market to “move” to a jurisdiction not subject to the tax. Real estate obviously cannot do this due it being tied to physical presence but the market distortions are the same.
“wojo–where’d you find the 122 number? It sez 26 “homes” sold in the loop in Nov-20.”
That’s weird. The data file says 122.
View/download Redfin data here:
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
Scroll down to “Home Prices, Sales & Inventory”
Top right, under the column entitled “State” deselect “All”, and select the box for “IL”.
“Region Type”: deselect ALL and select “Neighborhood”.
Under the column entitled “Region” type in “The Loop” or scroll thru the neighborhood names. Check the box for The Loop, press Apply.
Top left, click on “Download.” Bottom right, click the download icon for the file or html link.
“Anyone that has taken a finance or economics course knows that this transaction tax isn’t merely “fungible” as you posit money to be but rather causes a deadweight loss in terms of a certain number of transactions/economic activity not being done due to it resulting in price discovery being impeded.”
——————————
All taxes and are dead weight losses to some degree. The money generated by the tax is fungible, and can be used for any purpose.
Think of the transactions/economic activity that wouldn’t be done without a functioning government — and governments require money. The fact of taxes is not the problem. Trick is to find a balance as to amounts so that economic activity is not unduly harmed.
Libertarian fantasies are still fantasies.
“the “Mag Mile” isn’t even a neighborhood. And what do you count as that? From the River to where? Or South of the River? And only buildings with their doors directly on Michigan Avenue?”
https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/351536/IL/Chicago/Magnificent-Mile
“That’s weird. The data file says 122.”
If you expand to multiple months, you get a note at the bottom that sez that neighborhood and zip code data are for 3 month periods.
Don’t know if that is accurate–looking at the numbers for the Loop for each month of 2020 it doesn’t feel right–but that’s what is sez.
“redfin’s Mag Mile]”
That is profoundly weird–it doesn’t include buildings fronting on Michigan on the east side of the street? Why not??
I see what your referring to: “Neighborhood and zip code regions are calculated for 90-day periods. For example January 2016 is the 3-month period of November 1, 2015 through January 31, 2016.”
Hmm. I dunno. Zillow offers “smooth” and “raw” data; Case-Shiller offers non- and seasonally-adjusted data. Maybe Redfin publishes only 3-month rolling averages. I’m not sure how I feel about that. I had presumed it was ‘raw.’
“That is profoundly weird–it doesn’t include buildings fronting on Michigan on the east side of the street? Why not??”
I guess the east side of the street is Streeterville? Lol.
Johnc,
We’re talking past each other. I really don’t see you addressing my issue, which is fundamentally that the notion of taxing real estate transactions to pay for the CTA is arbitrary and makes no sense. If you are saying that you believe that it is perfectly OK for the government to tax anything anyway to pay for anything else then that is the crux of our disagreement. I reject that notion on the basis that it distorts behavior. I believe that the closer you can come to making the beneficiaries of a program pay for that program the better off you will be.
You attempted to make the argument that property owners are the beneficiaries of the CTA and if that’s the case then tax property owners (although I have a problem with that also). The transfer tax does not tax property owners. It taxes property buyers/ sellers. They are not one and the same.
“The transfer tax does not tax property owners. It taxes property buyers/ sellers. They are not one and the same.”
Which is why tying it to legacy costs that *are* typically supported (at least in Chicago) by general property taxes makes more sense. A version of a capital cost reduction and/or exit/entry fee. Put it all directly toward reducing pension debt and/or paying for capital bonds, and its related.
Now, whether or not you think its a good idea, Chicago subsidizes CTA. To the extent that the tax goes to retiring capital debt or pension shortfall–that would otherwise add to the regular property tax burden–then it does fit within the above entry/exit fee concept.
None of that directly addresses your specific objections, Gary, but it *is* a bit more of a nexus.
” I believe that the closer you can come to making the beneficiaries of a program pay for that program the better off you will be.”
———————————–
I believe that too, Gary. The problem is that you reject the idea that you benefit from the CTA on the grounds that you are not physically on it. As I pointed out before, you do in fact benefit from it, even if the benefit is indirect (less traffic, less pollution, wider labor pool for your business to hire from, etc.). Your narrow definition is not justified by the facts.
Tax money, as I noted before, once in the hands of the government, is fungible. The source is irrelevant. I agree that taxes and fees can operate to suppress economic activity, but that’s true of all taxes and fees, not just transfer taxes. The more you pay in property taxes annually the less you have to spend on other things.
The transfer of title is an event that can be taxed. It is taxed. That becomes a revenue source. As a revenue source, transfer taxes permit other taxes to be lower than they otherwise would be. Case in point: New Hampshire. It has no income tax and no sales tax. Its fees are high, though, and its property taxes are astronomical.
I really don’t want the government giving me “benefits” that I’m not asking for and then charging me for them.
So, if you think any event is fair game for taxation then why not a marriage tax (the license fee is trivial) or a birth tax or a fire tax or a moving tax? It’s insane.
“[NH’]s property taxes are astronomical”
Hmm–they are #3 in the country, behind Illinois at #2:
https://taxfoundation.org/how-high-are-property-taxes-in-your-state-2020/
“I really don’t want the government giving me “benefits” that I’m not asking for and then charging me for them. ”
———————————-
So if we come across your unconscious, bleeding, body on the street we can leave you there to die on the grounds you didn’t “ask” for medical assistance? Good to know!
taxfoundation.org/how-high-are-property-taxes-in-your-state-2020/
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Read the note to your citation: “The data exclude property taxed paid by businesses, renters, and others.”
So when Berrios was cheating homeowners by suppressing business property taxes and boosting property taxes on low-value housing, he was moving Illinois up the ranks. And business property taxes, and multi-family house taxes in New Hampshire are quite high.
I stand by my statement.
“So if we come across your unconscious, bleeding, body on the street we can leave you there to die on the grounds you didn’t “ask” for medical assistance?”
I think it’s safe to assume in that situation that I would want medical assistance. Don’t you think?
“I think it’s safe to assume in that situation that I would want medical assistance. Don’t you think?”
————————————-
I do. I also think it safe to assume that you would want less pollution, less traffic congestion, a larger pool of potential labor for your business, and to not be a benefits freeloader.
I also hope that everyone has a merry Christmas and happy new year.
Bad assumption – except for the Merry Christmas part
“Bad assumption . . . ”
—————
Now you’re just being petulant. Merry Christmas anyway.
“The transfer of title is an event that can be taxed. It is taxed. That becomes a revenue source. As a revenue source, transfer taxes permit other taxes to be lower than they otherwise would be. Case in point: New Hampshire. It has no income tax and no sales tax. Its fees are high, though, and its property taxes are astronomical.”
You are an idiot and so typical of leftists. Something being taxed here in deep blue Illinois and Chicago doesn’t mean other taxes are lower than they’d otherwise be. You are so naive and stupid I don’t even know where to begin. You probably believed in the tooth fairy & Santa Claus until you were 15. Please for the sake of the future don’t vote.
“You are an idiot and so typical of leftists. Something being taxed here in deep blue Illinois and Chicago doesn’t mean other taxes are lower than they’d otherwise be. ”
——————————
That is a political argument, not an economic argument. Stick to the subject.
Johnc,
I’m the government and…you know…I think you would benefit from a new football stadium. You may not realize how you benefit from it but you do. I don’t think the fans should pay the whole bill because you benefit too. And to pay for the new football stadium I’m going to impose a surtax on airline tickets.
The Illinois Sports Facilities Authority is funded by a 2% hotel tax.
“I think you would benefit from a new football stadium. You may not realize how you benefit from it but you do.”
————————————
I would certainly like to see the economic case that you make for it, Gary, and if i don’t like it i can vote with my feet — just like you voted with your feet to come here to Chicago AFTER the L was constructed and its government subsidy structure was put in place.
BTW, given that housing costs and transportation costs are two sides of the same coin (ask any economist), taxing real estate to pay for transportation is not as arbitrary as you seem to believe.
But let’s get back to this football stadium: Would you put it by the lake near downtown? How about at the South Works? That’s 415 acres of EPA Superfund site that can’t be used for housing.
“BTW, given that housing costs and transportation costs are two sides of the same coin”
I don’t even know what that means. And transfer taxes are not a housing cost. They are a moving cost.
“But let’s get back to this football stadium: Would you put it by the lake near downtown? How about at the South Works? That’s 415 acres of EPA Superfund site that can’t be used for housing.”
What difference does it make? I don’t want the government making me pay for a football stadium. Or performance artists or parades for that matter.
“I don’t even know what that means. And transfer taxes are not a housing cost. They are a moving cost.”
————————–
Actually, they are merely transaction costs: no sale, no tax. And if the yield of transaction taxes is lower than anticipated, other taxes will be raised to make up the shortfall, or spending cut.
You may not like the purpose of the transfer tax (to raise funds for government spending), but its existence is perfectly normal. Would you prefer to pay sales tax rates for buying a house? According to your view, making a distinction between selling a house and selling a sofa is totally arbitrary.
Johnc,
Actually, I think the income tax should be replaced with a sales tax. You don’t want to tax stuff you want more of but you should tax stuff you want less of. I think we need less consumption in general if you’re worried about the planet. But there should be an exemption for food, healthcare, education, and reasonable housing costs – maybe $500K. But it’s a bit more complicated because you shouldn’t be taxed just for moving from one $1 MM home to another $1 MM home. So perhaps you treat moving like you do trading a car in for a new one – you get a credit for what you just sold.
“But it’s a bit more complicated because you shouldn’t be taxed just for moving from one $1 MM home to another $1 MM home.”
————————
Why shouldn’t you be taxed for selling a house? Is that your principals talking, Gary, or your vested interest in taking a commission? I assume that where you stand depends on where you sit.
Not to mention the fact that you are favoring current homeowners over new homeowners: Young couples moving from an apartment to their first house take it in the face because they don’t have a current house to “credit,” but old farts like you and me get to coast? Gary, I don’t mind you trying to sell your position, but stop playing us (me anyway) for stupid (otherwise I might leave your unconscious, bleeding, carcass on the street when I come across it).
Warning, do NOT get me started about rentier economies and political systems, which are EXACTLY what you advocate with your proposition.
And “reasonable” housing costs of $500K? Gary, what have you been smoking? $500K buys a palace in most places in the US, and in Illinois, for that matter. In fact, get out of the HAWT market yuppievilles and you can get very, very, good houses in solid neighborhoods right in Chicago for far less. Your bias is showing, not your principals.
With respect to cars, you are flat-out wrong. Sales tax on cars is determined by the purchase price of the new car. The credit you get for the old car is irrelevant to the sales tax you pay. So if you buy a new car for $20,000, and assume a Cook County/Chicago sales tax of ten percent ($2,000), and you trade in a $25,000 car, the dealer will only give you the new car and a check for $3,000. If you traded in a $15,000 car, your tax would still be $2,000, not $500 (ten percent of $5,000).
BTW, you left out clothes; shouldn’t “reasonable” clothing costs also be exempt? And why does lobster, truffles, and caviar (your food exemption here) rate a tax exemption? For a libertarian, you sure want to have a gigantic government to determine what constitutes “reasonable.”
After all, you don’t want the government giving you “benefits” you didn’t ask for and then charging you for them (see above — your words), and refraining from taxing caviar, lobster, and truffles is a “benefit,” as is ridiculous credits for housing costs and credits for shame values for car trade ins — all benefits.
But taxing property according to price to pay for transportation because it’s “arbitrary” even after you advertise “steps away from the CTA” in your listings — that’s wrong?
Gary, the relationship between swallowing gnats and camels is well known, as you have amply demonstrated.
I also don’t support the mortgage interest deduction so you are off base accusing me of protecting my self interest. I also don’t believe is the SALT deduction, another benefit I’d gladly give up.
I don’t follow your first auto purchase example but I can assure you that if you buy a 20K car and trade in a 10K car you are only taxed on the 10K difference. Prior to 2020 you could get a credit for trade-ins above 10K but they apparently changed that.
We could debate all day about what is reasonable housing costs. The government bureaucrats in their infinite wisdeom already came up with a number they use for the mortgage interest deduction.
Why shouldn’t you be taxed for buying a house? Because it’s housing. People need a place to live. I’m OK with taxing the first purchase above a certain threshold but you shouldn’t be taxed every time you decide to move. It’s a moving tax. Let’s charge renters too, huh?
So much of what clothes people buy is unnecessary so I’m fine with taxing it. I think I spend under $500/ year on clothes and that includes socks, underwear, jackets, and shoes. And I’m sure there are people who would say it shows 🙂
I would exempt the purchase of unprepared food. The luxury items you mentioned are usually purchased in prepared form.
“I also don’t support the mortgage interest deduction so you are off base accusing me of protecting my self interest. I also don’t believe is the SALT deduction, another benefit I’d gladly give up.”
—————————-
Gary, nice try to evade, but not good enough. Your statement was that going from one $1MM (purchase price) house to another $1MM (purchase price) house should not be taxed. Purchase price, however, is irrelevant to the mortgage interest deduction, as anyone paying cash for a house can attest.
Real estate broker commissions, however, are — say it — based on purchase price. Sing and dance all you want, but you want to encourage house sales by starving government of revenue while keeping your commissions. Yes, Gary, I’m accusing you of protecting your self interest.
As for bureaucratic wisdom, i think you will find that basing a tax on a readily ascertainable, indisputable, number, requires far less bureaucracy than defining what constitutes “reasonable.” Weasel words like “above a certain threshold” are cute, but evasive: What is the threshold, Gary, how is it determined, and who determines it? Sounds like it would take a lot of bureaucracy and complex rules to determine. Libertarians plumping for bureaucracy? Methinks thou dost protest too much.
Oh, and don’t bother saying that there’s a correlation between house prices and mortgage interest deductions because “most” people take out mortgages to purchase houses. There is also a correlation between using public transportation and proximity to public transportation hubs. We both know that. Just like we both know that public transportation benefits private car transport by reducing traffic congestion.
And I defy you to go to a grocery store, look at the live lobsters in their tank, and then come back and tell us that they’re “processed.”
“And business property taxes, and multi-family house taxes in New Hampshire are quite high.”
Here’s a look at commercial property taxes:
https://www.lincolninst.edu/sites/default/files/pubfiles/50-state-property-tax-comparison-for-2017-full_1.pdf
Commercial effective rate:
Manchester NH: 1.88%
Chicago: 3.78%
Industrial effective rate:
Manchester NH: 1.13%
Chicago: 2.27%
Apartments effective rate:
Manchester NH: 2.15%
Chicago: 1.24%
Yes, indeed, *quite* high in NH. But only w/r/t residences, and only about comparable to Illinois (ex Chicago, which has below state average taxes on residences) even for residences.
“Here’s a look at commercial property taxes:
https://www.lincolninst.edu/sites/default/files/pubfiles/50-state-property-tax-comparison-for-2017-full_1.pdf”
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You cherry-picked your data. Go to page 88 of the .pfd and you will see the rural area tax rates — New Hampshire has the higher rates.
New Hampshire is also more “rural” over all than Illinois.
Then there’s the small mater of the relative mix of housing, with Chicago having more apartments as a portion of its housing mix. Manchester’s apartment effective rate is significantly higher than CHicago’s.
“So perhaps you treat moving like you do trading a car in for a new one – you get a credit for what you just sold.”
Incorrect. Now with JB and Illinois’ Democrats new bill you can only trade in up to 10k in value un-taxed or else the government will tax you on the amount traded in above 10k.
Anything to keep the public sector union employees corpulent pensions & all. Because there are millions of johnc’s in this state and stupidity spreads faster than covid.
“Incorrect. Now with JB and Illinois’ Democrats new bill you can only trade in up to 10k in value un-taxed or else the government will tax you on the amount traded in above 10k.”
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Which is better than it was before, if true. When I last bought a new car a few years ago, I brought the tax form with me before I bought — Illinois state tax form had the tax based on the purchase price with no deduction. If you get a credit of up to $10k on the sales price now, that’s better than it was.
“Go to page 88 of the .pfd and you will see the rural area tax rates — New Hampshire has the higher rates.”
Slightly higher than Galena, and HALF the rate of rural Indiana.
And *still* way, way lower than Chicago (except, again, apartments)–which is the only place with THE CTA TAX YOU’VE BEEN PIMPING.
You pulled a terrible example out of your ass.
“You pulled a terrible example out of your ass.”
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You don’t know the half of it.
Happy Holidays everyone.
“Which is better than it was before, if true. When I last bought a new car a few years ago, I brought the tax form with me before I bought — Illinois state tax form had the tax based on the purchase price with no deduction. If you get a credit of up to $10k on the sales price now, that’s better than it was.”
You have no idea what you are talking about, johnc. Generally, as well as specifically here. The state never collected sales tax on vehicle trade in value until the middle of 2019. Previous to this Illinoisans only paid sales tax on the difference between trade in value and new vehicle value. Now that is limited to $10k resulting in double taxation.
If you thought you were competent by finding and printing out a tax form and overpaid on Illinois taxes because you aren’t quite as competent as you think you are and not an accountant, that is on you–I’m sure the state has a whole team searching for these tax overpayments to get you your money back.
“Purchase price, however, is irrelevant to the mortgage interest deduction, as anyone paying cash for a house can attest.”
I have no idea what your point is. Don’t see how this relates to a moving tax applied only to homeowners.
“Gary, I’m accusing you of protecting your self interest.”
Sure. You’re going to do what you’re going to do but that’s clearly not my pattern.
“What is the threshold, Gary, how is it determined, and who determines it? Sounds like it would take a lot of bureaucracy and complex rules to determine.”
A bureaucrat determines it. You seem to put a lot of faith in them. They’ve already determined what’s reasonable for purposes of the mortgage interest deduction. Use the same number.
“Just like we both know that public transportation benefits private car transport by reducing traffic congestion.”
It’s a benefit I didn’t ask for. Public transportation also encourages higher density of both employment and housing and hence greater utilization of that public transportation. I wouldn’t assume that in its absence you’d have that same density and that it would be served by cars.
“And I defy you to go to a grocery store, look at the live lobsters in their tank, and then come back and tell us that they’re “processed.””
Obviously you and I move in different circles. I don’t have any friends or relatives that prepare their own lobsters nor have I ever seen a live lobster tank in a Jewel. But back to my original point. Since you trust bureaucrats to make good decisions for us and since they’ve already decided what reasonable food items are for purchase through the SNAP program just use the same criteria for a sales tax exclusion.