Market Conditions: Is the Worst Behind the Chicago Housing Market?
The Chicago Tribune sees signs of optimism in the spring selling season.
While the results of February existing-home sales, released Monday, were as dismal as expected, the number of contracts signed during the month was at its highest level since April, when a homebuyer tax credit was propelling the market. Additionally, there are stories of multiple offers, busy open houses and, importantly, sellers being more realistic about their pricing.
“You can tell by the chatter that’s going on, the phone calls I’m getting,” said Elise Rinaldi, an @Properties agent. “I really believe the paralysis is over. There’s buyers again.”
Sales appear to be picking up on the North Shore.
Baird & Warner agent Coralie Norwell had a client whose red brick home in Evanston went under contract the same day it was listed for sale.
“Sometimes you just hit it,” she said. “There are a lot of people out (looking). Unemployment is down, and I imagine that has something to do with it.”
Illinois’ unemployment rate has declined for 13 consecutive months and stood at 8.9 percent in February, the state reported last week.
Last month, three of Rinaldi’s four listings that went under contract along the North Shore had multiple offers, including a $1.65 million house that attracted multiple offers within two days and will sell for close to its listing price.
“Buyers are so savvy right now, and many of them have been looking for a year,” she said. “Sellers are (saying) this is what I have to do to move my properties.”
During February, 6,199 homes were under contract in Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, and Will counties, according to Midwest Real Estate Data LLC.
Meanwhile, the number of properties listed for sale on the local multiple listing service in February was at its lowest level in at least five years, with 81,343 listings, according to Midwest Real Estate Data. Some of that decline is likely the result of homeowners deciding to rent out their existing homes while they buy another one, rather than sell them for less than they wanted, said Mabel Guzman, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors.
Not everyone is quite as optimistic however.
William Strauss, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, characterizes the state of the housing market as a “soft bottom.”
“It’s hard to say that things are improving at this point,” Strauss said of the February sales data.
After seeing an increase in activity and buyer quality in February, March has been slower, and Prudential Rubloff agent Mario Greco does not expect any great spring sales surge or a return to higher prices for sellers.
“I think we’re going to have a continued middling spring market and a disappointing summer market and, depending on interest rates, a tentatively middling fall market,” Greco said. “We’re better than we were in 2009. If we weren’t beating ’09, that’d be a big problem.”
Only the numbers, when we ultimately get them, will tell the story.
Is this the turnaround that everyone has been hoping for?
Are buyers getting off the fence even without a tax incentive?
Area home sales fall, but glimmer of hope seen in pending contracts [Chicago Tribune, Mary Ellen Podmolik, March 22, 2011]
Sonies said it best on another thread last night – but I think it is worth repeating:
“whats happening now is that people that can afford to not move are not even bothering selling and (are) staying put. Those that are forced to move due to affordability/family/job issues are going to short sale and foreclosure.”
I think that is the key issue. All of my colleagues who have stable jobs and a secure income wouldn’t dream of selling now (even those that are cramped with a growing family as well as those empty nesters living in a 12,000 sq ft house). Why would they sell?
All of this, in my opinion, results in crap inventory in a tepid economy. Because of this, I don’t think sales are going to spike because buyers are still somewhat picky. However, if someone does have a spectacular property to sell, now may be the time to put it on the market because of the lack of nice properties out there. Bottom line is that I agree with Mario. We are going to be bouncing around at the bottom during 2011 – I think 2012 will start picking up and will really get going in 2013-2014 (barring any catastrophic event).
I figured that clio’s lie that I was backtracking last week was just projection.
G- don’t start with me this early in the morning. I think we established that you should just stick to providing data and let the grown ups analyze it. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what is going on in the real estate market. No, there won’t be any further drops in house values (even though the average sales price continues to decrease- we have already established that it is because of bargain hunters and investors buying foreclosures.
OK, while I agree with the premise of the story (I am seeing much higher activity recently) my data is not even close to theirs for the city of Chicago: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-real-estate-getting-real/2011/03/distressed-home-sales-driving-higher-real-estate-activity-in-chicago.html
Compare February to April.
I’ll have to check the broader area. Maybe the suburbs are making up the difference.
But we do see multiple offers on distressed properties at good prices.
OK. I just reread that sentence for the 4th time. They said SINCE April. True statement. However, April was WAY above February as you can see. Nevertheless, there is an improvement in contract activity as I have pointed out before.
And don’t just look at the unemployment RATE, look at employment levels – the number of people with jobs. That’s markedly improving.
Number of people with jobs is not improving much, factually. Check the link below.
source:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/gallup-poll-pegs-unemployment-rate-at.html
Let’s see if I have this right.
Real estate agent #1 says things are getting better.
Real estate agent #2 says things are getting better.
Fed economist isn’t so sure.
I think I’ll choose to believe #3.
joe… Couldn’t agree more with the link u posted. I watch petrol use all the time and no way things are better with that down. This is an unsustainable recovery based on gov’t debt. Not healthy.
Joe,
Check out the employment graph towards the bottom of http://ChicagoHousingStats.com
Through December it was rising. I need to update January momentarily, which was down, but the trend is up nicely.
Condos are going to continue to get cheaper because banks have much stricter lending guidelines to this type of housing unit. They need to take into account the rental percentage of the building, the buildings reserves, whether there are any lawsuits against the homeowners associations, and whether the current assessments charged are building up a reserve for the building. Plus, there is a gloat of 2/2’s in the city.
OK- if the housing market for buying sucks, construction is at a standstill, and older places are unlivable/unacceptable – where the hell are all of these people going to live? Rentals – just watch rents skyrocket. You can’t have one without the other (especially as you add more people to the population and you take away housing stock – because of poor maint., etc.)
“Rentals – just watch rents skyrocket. You can’t have one without the other (especially as you add more people to the population and you take away housing stock)”
i am a simple man, but i thought chicago’s population shrunk these past 10 years and there have been an oversupply of housing built in the past 5 years?
basic econ from grade 7 will tell you “hey that sounds like prices should go lower”
just sayin
“Meanwhile, there is talk of increased down-payment requirements, and the Obama administration wants to wind down the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which along with the Federal Housing Administration own or guarantee more than 95 percent of home mortgages. Both moves could lead to higher borrowing costs and cause buyers to move into the market more aggressively.”
so less future demand means increased present demand??
So March contracts in Chicago last year were 2500 and this February was 1600? How is that improving? Why the need to stretch the truth here?
Michael Milken was on tv this morning – he said in the past 120 years that housing prices have gone down 63 out of 120 years and went up 57 of those years.
Real estate from 2001 to 2007 was a game of musical chairs and then the music stopped. Now, everyone is stuck. How long can people stick it out in their homes/condos?
It’s not a surprise that the IAR would make up numberss because is in their best interest to “convince” more people to do real estate transactions. In a few years a scandal will come out over this one, but it will be just another story in Illinois.
Groove,
I believe that the people who left either had no jobs or low paying jobs. That’s why I don’t focus on population but rather employment.
Speaking of employment….I did update the graph and January was down quite a bit but some chunk of that is a seasonal effect.
“I believe that the people who left either had no jobs or low paying jobs”
i wondered the same thing but i have no clue who left just know the black community voted with their feet and left the city,
but to add to the unemployment thing i really hate the unemployment stats (not yours will check it in a bit) as everyone i meet now is crazy underemployed because there were unemployed for so dang long.
“I think 2012 will start picking up and will really get going in 2013-2014 (barring any catastrophic event).”
Why?
Because the inventory will decline as there are less foreclosures?
Also- if you think it will “get going” by 2013- where do you see interest rates? What happens to the housing market when mortgages are 7% or higher?
A few weeks ago when rates went over 5% for the first time in a few months, mortgage applications fell to 2 year lows. And that’s just 5% rates!
As far as employment is concerned I think the outlook is pretty solid as it relates to properties/locations discussed on this site. The biggest hit in employment was in blue collar jobs with a less skilled/educated population. I have seen various statistics about employment for people with a bachelors degree or higher and the unemployment rate is around 5%. Granted some of those people are probably waiting tables (but that is always the case) and some are drowning in student debt, the overall case remains that employment prospects are pretty good for these people and there is still a desire to own versus rent in general.
From a personal perspective, things have really opened up in 2011. My friend and I were both job hunting during Nov and Dec and heard nothing back, we would get zero responses on 30-40 applications. Then in January he started hearing back on half of the jobs he applied for. In two weeks he had three interviews and the next week he got a new job. So I started looking again a month ago. Same thing happened. In two days I was able to schedule three interviews, the next week the floodgates opened and I turned down 5 interviews (literally) and had second interviews with two companies, and had two offers the following week. Both offered big pay increases as well. Also, another person in my dept got a new job and resigned the day before me.
My point is not to brag about our good fortunes but to poing out that we are quite normal these days. Each of us have 3-5 years experience and a bachelors degree from a major university. There are thousands out there just like us, and I think we will be the people supporting the entry level housing market in Chicago for the next 2-3 years, but only in the desirable neighborhoods.
Sorry for rambling on…
It seems like there was a lot of MFH to SFH conversions going on, does anyone have stats to say if the actual number of dewllings increased while the population decreased? Might be skewed because of second homes etc. but just a thought…
“A few weeks ago when rates went over 5% for the first time in a few months, mortgage applications fell to 2 year lows. And that’s just 5% rates!”
Well, with sales down we would assume that purchase loans are also down. And most homeowners eligible to refinance have already done so at rates below 5%. Given that, I think it makes sense that mortgage applications have hit a 2 year low right now.
And if you want more (anecdotal) evidence of what I am talking about, go to crate and barrel, pottery barn, or BBBY on a Saturday or Sunday morning. These places are crawling with young couples like my wife and I that are getting married and buying graniteel mccrapboxes with open floorplans because that is what the masses want. There was a line of couples like us outside of C&B this sunday waiting for them to open. I felt so conformist I got sick to my stomach and spent the next 45 minutes pouting while my wife debated about buying $40 worth of fake lemons and limes.
It’s not all doom and gloom out there…
DC, do you work in the FIRE economy (finance, insurance, real estate)?
Just wondering, most people I know who’ve changed jobs or gotten pay increases work in those industries.
yep, wife and I are both finance, as well as my two peers i referenced. most of our friends are either in business or healthcare and are doing well (and most of them are not in chicago), so I can’t comment much about other industries.
I believe:
Interest rates will stay low for much longer than most people would believe.
Inventory is being slowly dripped into the market in the good city neighborhoods and villages. There will not be a flood of foreclosures in the green Zone. Fringy locations and low income areas will see a flood or distressed inventory.
Prices are about 30-40% off peak pricing, and rates are a full point lower than in boom times.
Waiting for THE bottom may not work, as most people are horrible market timers. And, housing stock is so varied that one cannot guarantee that their dream house will be available at THE bottom.
The rental market in good areas is getting tighter, and prices are edging up.
The rampant pessimism in real estate leads me to believe that now is a good time to buy if you have a long-term horizon. Locking in a manageable payment for the long term at today’s levels makes sense for those who can do it and stick to their plan.
I’m willing to bet that the black community didn’t vote with their feet. That population is down because gentrification took over, and the richer suburban white population wanted to live in the city and forced out the public and low income housing. The poorer black community had no say in this. This population loss has no effect on the types of properties discussed here.
Gary – are you still updating the affordability graph that was on your website, which takes into consideration prices and interest rates? I found that chart particularly interesting, particularly that affordability in late 2010 was at its lowest point since the 1980s.
Using Sabrina’s example of rates rising from today’s 4.875% to 7%, prices would need to fall another 20% from where they are now for the monthly mortgage payments to equal. Of course, with lower prices the 20% down payment would be a lower dollar amount and, sure, prices could potentially fall that much further, but most of the headlines I read about the double dip (which most mainstream news sources are discussing these days) talks about 10% further drops. Even Calculated Risk is expecting further drops of only about 10%. Only the bearish of the bears, like Peter Schiff, are calling for 20%+ further drops and even he bought a house a few months ago.
I guess I’m just wondering if, from an affordability standpoint, if falling prices are just going to be offset rising rates. Obviously, if someone is looking short-term a lower price is more of a priority, but for someone like HomeDelete, who I’m assuming would be buying for the long-term (if and when he does), might it be a wash over the long-term? Not trying to start an argument about price declines–that’s been covered enough here–more interested in discussing affordability.
but where did the people go? Plainfield?
For those that don’t know what I’m referring to, this is Gary’s graph: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-real-estate-getting-real/2011/01/you-just-missed-the-lowest-housing-costs-in-23-years.html
Does anyone know if on average the amount of cash brought to the table increases with rates? That’s my plan. I imagine people weren’t financing most of their purchase in the early 80’s (Or whenver rates were nonsensically high I wasn’t here or don’t remember).
“I’m willing to bet that the black community didn’t vote with their feet. That population is down because gentrification took over, and the richer suburban white population wanted to live in the city and forced out the public and low income housing. The poorer black community had no say in this. This population loss has no effect on the types of properties discussed here”
really gentrification took over the Austin and Englewood neighborhood?
what actually happened is the “richer suburban white population” invaded the hispanic communities not the black.
now if your statement were made directly toward cabrini green then its a highly valid string for letters/words/punctuation
Anecdotal, as I am not originally from Chicago, but coworkers have told me that especially in Cook county, low income housing is being built in the surrounding burbs. Of course, they aren’t fans of this as the feel their hometown schools and neighborhoods are taking a hit. I also imagine some folks head south with the rest of the population shift. Either way, this population shift has no effect on the mainly North Side properties discussed here.
I don’t think interest rates rise for a long-time. Bond fund managers love p-strips at 5% yields and in the long-term I think 5% rates on 30’s probably hold. Though other interest rates may rise; I think its primarily due to curve flattening than the things that will hit mortgage rates heavily.
I am still modestly bearish on housing. I just do not believe the demographic profile of future buyers fits well with what a lot of boomers want to sell.
oh btw NYC the hispanic population grew in chicago even with “whitey” “gentrifying” their previous hoods.
OK Groove, but the Hispanic population in the entire US has exploded in relation to any other demographic. I am not saying “whitey” is throwing people out, but you are being ridiculous to not see most US cities being gentrified at their core.
NYC: I disagree, african americans were not pushed out by gentrification. Most chicago areas that gentrified during the 1990’s and 2000’s were not african american. the cause of the exodus was the foreclosure crisis. many south and west side neighborhoods were slammed by predatory lending, fraudulent valuations, just plain fraud, job losses and cash out refi foreclosures. you can walk down some streets that were vibrant 8 years ago and today are half owned by the banks. They can’t give away some of these places now. They left the area when the bank took over the home and moved to the suburbs.
DC: You work in finance. I’ve said all along that the finance sector is the ‘chosen’ sector. Of course it’s doing well, but many other sectors are not. In fact, the legal profession is still reeling from the recession. In the last year we’re hired two T1 law school grads one of whom used to work at a big firm. My firm is a good firm but never in the firm’s history have they been able to hire T1 grads for pennies on the dollar. There are so few jobs available right now and things aren’t looking any better for the foreseeable future. Anecdotal stories can go either way.
Oh…and you made my point with Cabrini, but take it away with Austin? My opinion is not sweeping for every zip code, guy.
“G- I think we established that you should just stick to providing data and let the grown ups analyze it. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what is going on in the real estate market.”
clio, my analysis of your conclusion indicates that you don’t want my analysis due to my age and genius. Will I be allowed to analyze after you are gone in July? JMM, miumiu and sonies anxiously await your response.
homedelete: So even more blacks that didn’t vote with their feet. They were forced out of their homes. Wonder what demographic made money on the lending? Hmmm.
NYC: I know first hand that white brokers were the minority in the African American neighborhoods.
New home sales fall to a record low today.
Just when you think things can’t get any worse, they get worse.
I thought because the FIRE economy was on fire all was well? Why aren’t they buying new homes?
NEW home sales bottoming is supportive of the secondary market. Thank God they aren’t building much these days!
“Does anyone know if on average the amount of cash brought to the table increases with rates?”
No real difference, 20% was always a standard (and should be), just back then no such thing as zero down loans existed, not for individuals at least.
“OK Groove, but the Hispanic population in the entire US has exploded in relation to any other demographic. I am not saying “whitey” is throwing people out”
i am talking chicago, who really cares about the rest of the US.
“but you are being ridiculous to not see most US cities being gentrified at their core.””
where do i say or imply that i am blind to the “gentrification” of the core of chicago and areas closely surrounding it (or areas near major transportation to the core)?
“Oh…and you made my point with Cabrini, but take it away with Austin?”
yes any point can be proven with a small micro selection chosen to prove that point. chicago as a whole makes your random statement invalid.
plus cabrini has been a long time coming even before the land value was great. ikies and robert talyor were being dismantled way before thier land value grew, and really is the land there that valuable anyway?
“the hispanic population grew in chicago”
shocking!
not.
It seems like every latina woman I see between the ages of 18-30 has at least 2-6 kids hanging off her any given time
“homedelete: So even more blacks that didn’t vote with their feet. They were forced out of their homes. Wonder what demographic made money on the lending? Hmmm.
hmmm. get facts straight bro, it wanst Mr. Pasty monocle and top hat wearing guy writing and lending those loans in that community.
“Nyc
I’m willing to bet that the black community didn’t vote with their feet. That population is down because gentrification took over, and the richer suburban white population wanted to live in the city and forced out the public and low income housing. The poorer black community had no say in this. This population loss has no effect on the types of properties discussed here.”
white people did not force out blacks from the city. The total number of whites in the city in the year 2000 was higher than it is now. If anything, the booming Asian population replaced the blacks. Also, the entire southside lost people. No ethnic group gained in population there. What happened was middle class Blacks decided to move out of the dangerous neighborhoods to the south suburbs and southern cities like Atlanta.
And I see the legal sector struggling as a large benefit to society as a whole
He who reproduces the most, in the evolutionary and genetic sense, wins.
“#Sonies on March 23rd, 2011 at 8:47 am
“the hispanic population grew in chicago”
shocking!
not.
It seems like every latina woman I see between the ages of 18-30 has at least 2-6 kids hanging off her any given time”
“NEW home sales bottoming is supportive of the secondary market. Thank God they aren’t building much these days!”
Not supportive of employment, though.
Groove: you are right. JP Morgan Chase, BOA, Wells Fargo are run by low level brokers in the South Side community. Where do you think the cash came from?
NYC- The Chinese?
“A few weeks ago when rates went over 5% for the first time in a few months, mortgage applications fell to 2 year lows. And that’s just 5% rates!”
I know you know that mortgage applications consist of two groups: i) refis and ii) purchases. So, I think if you look more closely you will see the later performed differently and activity there was actually up as people got off the fence.
“NYC- The Chinese?”
@$!**#&^$$% you beat me to it!!!
“According to the census, the city’s black population went from just over 1 million in 2000 to 887,608 in 2010. The non-Hispanic white population dropped from 907,166 to 854,717, while Hispanics increased by about 25,000 to 778,862”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-census-population-drop-20110218,0,1788032.story
clearly no population group forced any other group out. I took the rock island metra the other week. Feel free to buy up one of the thousands of vacant houses or lots. Heck in some parts you could buy up 10 lots in a row and build a castle With a moat if you’d like.
“I guess I’m just wondering if, from an affordability standpoint, if falling prices are just going to be offset rising rates. ”
Prices have little correlation to rising nominal rates, primarily because wage inflation typically corresponds with rate increases. Unless you can make the inexplicable case for higher *real* mortgage rates, the relationship you point to does not really hold.
I recently read a book by Richard Florida titled “The Great Reset.” This guy has written other books about the new urbanism and the creative class, etc. In this book, for the most part he states that the recent housing bubble was a one-time event and future housing will be far less expensive, adorned, etc. He discusses the many strong similarities between the housing markets of the GD and the 2008 GR and notes that after the housing bubble of the GD popped, it took 24 years for real spending on residential construction to recover to its pre-crisis highs. He adds that “Anyone who thinks we’ll be able to reset the current housing market quickly needs to pay close attention to this.”
Is NYC a code name for dan? I’m surprised NYC hasn’t spoke about a certain religious minority that has more wealth than most. It’ll only be time before they get blamed for lending to these areas.
There is a push to allow Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) to “enhance” the credit and lower the Qualified Residential Mortgage LTV for securitization purposes. Chris Whalen at Institutional Risk Analytics has an article today that compares PMI to AIG’s derivatives and calls it a ponzi scheme. And the game goes on.
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp
“No real difference, 20% was always a standard (and should be), just back then no such thing as zero down loans existed, not for individuals at least.”
“Groove: you are right. JP Morgan Chase, BOA, Wells Fargo are run by low level brokers in the South Side community. Where do you think the cash came from?”
yes that money came indirectly and blindly from “whitey” atop of the JP morgan tower. and as Ze pointed out before me JP got there money from the “slanty eyed folk”.
you can paint any conspiracy you would like if your willing to work up the ladder, but the word for people that far up is “blindly”.
the lenders and subprime scavengers preyed on their own community. and you saw it in every area of our highly segregated city.
in the polish community the predatory lenders were POLISH, in the mexican community the predatory lenders were MEXICAN, in the black community the predatory lenders were BLACK.
so i ask where are you trying to go with this?
i will agree those at the top (which most are “whitey” i think) are greedy fucts and fuct everyone no matter the race, its all about the margin baby.
there is no conspiricy to remove a race/culture if thats where your going? its all about the margin baby, or in pop culture “show me the monnnaaaay”
Regarding the thread article, I have seen a lot of activity in our neighborhood recently. Many of the homes tend to trade after bonus cycles due to the price point, and that seems to be robust. Open houses are surprisingly well attended, even on superbowl sunday, even on ncaa weekend (though I am guessing typa-A “don’t teach my child to the middle” moms aren’t as focused on that stuff).
I have never heard anyone refer to a FIRE industry — is HD just making stuff up? i. insurance is pretty damn soft right now, ii. not sure how real estate is a strong performer either and iii. large banks are a mixed bag at best though some are doing well. Did people forget about Groupon and the portion of the 6000 future masters of the universe that crowd into 600 w. Chicago every day now? Law firms? Consulting firms? Basically skilled professional services in general is all doing quite well (boo hoo they might be working more hours). HD, feel free to make up an acronym. But they are all doing quite well.
I am not sure if CS breaks their data by price tier. I’ve seen the analysis elsewhere but perhaps it was custom. It only segmented about 284k but still, you separate a lot of chaff that way. The trend there is surprising. 500k to 1,000k SFHs are still of interest it seems in the city. Basically anything but the hulking brick mcmansions (which still ask 1.5M on the north side).
“primarily because wage inflation typically corresponds with rate increases”
same as saying can’t have recession and inflation and that’s been proven untrue and is kinda what is showing up once again.
Yes but growth and wage inflation are different. There was significant wage inflation during the stagflation period, even though economic output slowed.
Lots of significant work has been done on what the long-term frictional unemployment will be. Many more are realizing it will be significantly higher because extended durations outside the workforce dull and in some cases invalidate skill sets for aging workers. Those who do have skills will be paid at a premium. Full employment will correspond to an unemployment rate that is significantly higher once the dust settles. Therefore, slack unemployment in the economy is not going to have the effect you might otherwise expect on wages through a recovery.
PMI to AIG’s derivatives and calls it a ponzi scheme. And the game goes on.
Juliana if you really look into it deeply and take the time to understand it, it is truly crazier than crazy. Worse though, very scary.
You are a goof, JMM, a complete goof, and every time you type words onto the screen, you prove it over and over again
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_economy
I would expect that the wage inflation comes first then the rate increases (if) would be to stifle that…
“primarily because wage inflation typically corresponds with rate increases”
“Anecdotal, as I am not originally from Chicago, but coworkers have told me that especially in Cook county, low income housing is being built in the surrounding burbs.”
Don’t know of any (meaningful) new construction of low income housing in the ‘burbs. There is no doubt that many, many more Section 8 vouchers are being used in the burbs than 10 years ago, and that definitely “scares” some ‘burban folk, some of whom lash out about by blaming Daley for the change–as if the mayor of Chicago owes some duty to the residents of Palos Park (or wherever).
“as if the mayor of Chicago owes some duty to the residents of Palos Park (or wherever).”
and those bastardz got to use our taste of chicago for free so this is poetic justice in a unrelated sense of the matter.
“I am not sure if CS breaks their data by price tier.”
They do. The tier breaks for Chicago are:
Under $168592; $168592 – $284602; Over $284602
and the Dec-10 index numbers for the three tiers were:
104.33 114.14 119.2 (composite = 117.86)
The tiers are supposed to be even thirds of the market, and the placement of a given sale into a tier is based on the first sale price, rather than the current sale price (thus, a NT house purchased in 1975 and sold last year could be deemed a “under $168k” house, even with a $1mm+ current price).
Sabrina: “A few weeks ago when rates went over 5% for the first time in a few months, mortgage applications fell to 2 year lows. And that’s just 5% rates!”
JMM: “I know you know that mortgage applications consist of two groups: i) refis and ii) purchases. So, I think if you look more closely you will see the later performed differently and activity there was actually up as people got off the fence.”
My analysis indicates that JMM is wrong. Yeah, big surprise. The first rise in rates over 5% did not result in increased purchase activity.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey results for the weeks when rates went over 5% the first time in months (change from previous week):
WE 2/4/11 rates rose from 4.81 to 5.13 refi down SA-purchase down
WE 2/11/11 rates fell from 5.13 to 5.12 refi down SA-purchase down
WE 2/18/11 rates fell from 5.12 to 5.00 refi up SA-purchase up
WE 2/25/11 rates fell from 5.00 to 4.84 refi down SA-purchase down
The rise didn’t get buyers “off the fence,” but the next drop did. Even so, that increase in apps was for rate “knife-catchers” and proved unsustainable with an even further rate decline the following week.
“I have never heard anyone refer to a FIRE industry”
“I am not sure if CS breaks their data by price tier.”
LOL.
Use “FIRE economy” at your next get together and see how much recognition you get. In my 15 years on wall street not once did anyone refer to it as such. If Wikipedia is your education reference (and supplement to John Marshall School of Law which ranked a cool #140 out of all accredited schools), it explains much about your outlook on all things economic.
“The rise didn’t get buyers “off the fence,” but the next drop did.”
Actually, the rise that preceeded it is what is causal. But I would expected you to pick that up.
“Actually, the rise that preceeded it is what is causal. But I would expected you to pick that up.”
LOL.
“Gary – are you still updating the affordability graph that was on your website, which takes into consideration prices and interest rates? I found that chart particularly interesting, particularly that affordability in late 2010 was at its lowest point since the 1980s.
Using Sabrina’s example of rates rising from today’s 4.875% to 7%, prices would need to fall another 20% from where they are now for the monthly mortgage payments to equal.”
I need to do that. What you are saying is exactly my point.
Wish I could engage in the conversation today but I need to respond to all the activity out there 🙂
Actually, G you are incorrect with the own data you cite.
http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/75923.htm
“The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.93 percent from 4.84 percent”
“The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 12.5 percent from one week earlier and was the highest Purchase Index recorded this year.”
W/E Mar 4 rates up, purchase application activity up. Go figure.
You actually made a point (I’m proud of you), but you were also wrong (figures).
“The rise didn’t get buyers “off the fence,” but the next drop did. Even so, that increase in apps was for rate “knife-catchers” and proved unsustainable with an even further rate decline the following week.”
WRONG.
LOL.
JMM: keep up the good work.
I have also never heard the team FIRE industry…
Must be some sort of sour grapes lawyer lingo
Anon, thanks. Shows higher end has held up better which is what I saw. Is that data available on the S&P website in time series format?
team = term
must learn to proofread better.
Also I think G gets a kick out of calling people knifecatchers, it must remind him of his upbringing as a little boy at the carnival. His dad would practice his knife throwing act on him… or something like that
“JMM: keep up the good work.”
Buy now or be priced out forever! FIRE!
You must limit yourself to mainstream media. That acronym has been in my vocabulary for quite awhile.
“I have also never heard the team FIRE industry…”
I can provide dozens of links referring to the FIRE economy. Here is a fairly recent one.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/manufacturing-vs-finance-insurance-real-estate/
lmao…so now you are a genius G and you have the face to call others snob.
Yup Sonies was right, you are a tool.
“clio, my analysis of your conclusion indicates that you don’t want my analysis due to my age and genius.”
LOL. JMM resorts to lies, once again. You are very weak. Everyone can see your statement above and that you were wrong.
“A FIRE economy is any economy based primarily on the paper-intensive sectors of Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE).”
Paper intensive sectors? Law? HD you leave yourself out of your own little cute acronym. What gives?
“You must limit yourself to mainstream media. That acronym has been in my vocabulary for quite awhile.”
Lol. All I needed to know.
Juliana, JMM’s never heard of the FIRE economy, therefore it must not exist. I mean, he’s been working on Wall Street for 15 years and around bonus time, he creeps into the neighbor’s open houses. He knows everything.
“You must limit yourself to mainstream media.”
actually i don’t watch any MSM, ever and haven’t in 15 years so I’m not sure where that term comes up. Probably some dopes on NPR made it up, but I woudln’t know as I don’t listen to that crap either.
I had not heard the term FIRE economy either and I read Economist religiously.
“LOL. JMM resorts to lies, once again. You are very weak. Everyone can see your statement above and that you were wrong.”
G — you cannot dispute when shown a plain fact to the contrary so you go back to the ad hominems. Sorry but your analsis, was as you say, ahem, adjusted (and incorrect).
Lol.
“lmao…so now you are a genius G and you have the face to call others snob.
Yup Sonies was right, you are a tool.”
Ahhh, my favorite hypocrite calling names. Is that all you got when someone disagrees with you? Grow up. Perhaps you can help me with understanding the logic in clio’s comment that you are referencing? I know your superior reason can show me how my analysis was incorrect?
Speaking of defending one’s analysis, I didn’t see your reply here:
http://cribchatter.com/?p=10096#comment-141005
“he’s been working on Wall Street for 15 years”
You mean worked. In the FIRE economy. Those were heady days as I was in good company with real estate brokers and insurance underwriters. We were crushing it back then.
“Under $168592; $168592 – $284602; Over $284602
and the Dec-10 index numbers for the three tiers were:
104.33 114.14 119.2 (composite = 117.86)”
From memory when I looked at this a few months ago, the low tier went up a lot more than higher tiers during the bubble but then fell even more post bubble. Wish they reported finer tiers.
Notice how JMM is now lying? So predicatable.
G, please dispute the MBA press release I posted. Show me how it does not demonstrate what I said? If you cannot, then go back to the basement at 181 N. Clark and go about your thing.
DC: From a personal perspective, things have really opened up in 2011. My friend and I were both job hunting during Nov and Dec and heard nothing back, we would get zero responses on 30-40 applications. Then in January he started hearing back on half of the jobs he applied for. In two weeks he had three interviews and the next week he got a new job. So I started looking again a month ago. Same thing happened. In two days I was able to schedule three interviews, the next week the floodgates opened and I turned down 5 interviews (literally) and had second interviews with two companies, and had two offers the following week.
More anecdotal support for your theory: I am an independent consultant (software implementation) and for the last 2 years, I’ve had to really hustle to get work. However, in the last month, I’ve gotten 3 unsolicited offers, all of which were at least 10% over what has been the going rate for the last 5 years. They were all for long-term, high dollar projects ($15M+). Businesses are definitely starting to spend.
I was talking to a friend who’s in a similar situation and he said “it’s starting to look like the 90s again”.
Sabrina: “A few weeks ago when rates went over 5% for the first time in a few months, mortgage applications fell to 2 year lows. And that’s just 5% rates!”
JMM: “I know you know that mortgage applications consist of two groups: i) refis and ii) purchases. So, I think if you look more closely you will see the later performed differently and activity there was actually up as people got off the fence.”
My analysis indicates that JMM is wrong. Yeah, big surprise. The first rise in rates over 5% did not result in increased purchase activity.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey results for the weeks when rates went over 5% the first time in months (change from previous week):
WE 2/4/11 rates rose from 4.81 to 5.13 refi down SA-purchase down
WE 2/11/11 rates fell from 5.13 to 5.12 refi down SA-purchase down
WE 2/18/11 rates fell from 5.12 to 5.00 refi up SA-purchase up
WE 2/25/11 rates fell from 5.00 to 4.84 refi down SA-purchase down
The rise didn’t get buyers “off the fence,” but the next drop did. Even so, that increase in apps was for rate “knife-catchers” and proved unsustainable with an even further rate decline the following week.
Nothing in support of your response to Sabrina, JMM?
“Notice how JMM is now lying? So predicatable.”
Please dispute the MBA data. Thanks. Lol.
Not saying The Economist isn’t worth reading, but if you want to keep up with whats going on you should really expand your reading list. I doubt they have published any of Chris Whalen’s information on PMI I linked to above either. Doesn’t mean its not true.
“I had not heard the term FIRE economy either and I read Economist religiously.”
“Is that data available on the S&P website in time series format?”
I assume so, but I pull from macromarkets as its free and easy. Can pull the excel with tabs for the 17 cities they have tiered numbers for.
http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/75923.htm
“Wish they reported finer tiers.”
Agreed since the vast majority of properties discussed here fall into the highest tier, unless as anon notes it has taken decades to trade (possible in Winnetka, less so in Lake View).
JMM: Wrong again. 181 N Clark is a parking garage. 161 N Clark is the Chicago Title building to which you were presumably referring.
How do you manage to brush your teeth or tie your shoes in the morning? I’m astounded that someone of your (alleged) wealth is so incompetent.
“Please dispute the MBA data.”
Why? That data had nothing to do with your incorrect analysis about when rates “went over 5% for the first time in a few months.”
You always make things up when proven wrong. Nothing new there.
G, you are so sad. I think I go back to ignoring you. You seriously are delusional.
You called me a snob and yourself a genius and I am a hypocrite…lmao
I thin people like you and Dan deserve only one kind of treatment, being ignored.
As a rule of thumb, I would say anyone who calls themselves a genius has at least ego problems.
“From memory when I looked at this a few months ago, the low tier went up a lot more than higher tiers during the bubble but then fell even more post bubble. Wish they reported finer tiers.”
Yep. Low tier peaked at 182.58, mid at 175.08, and high at 160.15. The composite high was 168.6. Keep in mind that the numbers are weighted for sale price, so the high tier will have the biggest effect on the total index, even if it’s 1/3 of sales pairs.
Also, note that the tier price breaks will change month to month.
“How do you manage to brush your teeth or tie your shoes in the morning? I’m astounded that someone of your (alleged) wealth is so incompetent.”
I’ll go with the obvious: he was born on third base and believes he actually hit a triple.
Honestly JMM why do you waste your breath on someone who thinks they are a genius because they can use excel to find means and averages. It reminds me of when Dan called himself voice of reason…hehe
juilana, I read real market research from hundreds of different very smart people every day and I have never heard of the “FIRE” economy
sorry, guess i’m out of the loop with my pointless acronyms
G — rates rose, purchase applications increased. Dispute that. Sorry but you are wrong.
“JMM: Wrong again. 181 N Clark is a parking garage. 161 N Clark is the Chicago Title building to which you were presumably referring.”
Actually, no. It was a transposition typo. 118 N Clark. Recorder of deeds building. Surely you could have figured that out. Instead you just come across like a jerk.
So Juliana and Sonies, what are good reading places? I would like to learn more about whats up.
“unless as anon notes it has taken decades to trade (possible in Winnetka, less so in Lake View)”
As anon notes the prices for the tiers change over time, so even if the first sales is a long time ago, would still have to be in the lower tier for that period.
“Keep in mind that the numbers are weighted for sale price, so the high tier will have the biggest effect on the total index, even if it’s 1/3 of sales pairs.”
Yeah, so the lower two tiers may be (I think have to be) a much smaller weight on total index. The tiering is kinda the obvious way to split them but they have very different weights. And maybe what’s really driving the high tier (and the total index to some extent) are the much higher priced properties.
Despite his preferential starting position, no matter how hard he tries, he can’t quite round home plate!
“I’ll go with the obvious: he was born on third base and believes he actually hit a triple.”
“As a rule of thumb, I would say anyone who calls themselves a genius has at least ego problems.”
I didn’t call myself that, clio did. Didn’t you apply your superior reason to his comment? Actually, I’m beginning to doubt your reasoning ability since you are now trying to smear me by association with Dan. Are you really that evil?
dangit you bastardz and your bickering scared away NYC. i was awaiting his/her/it’s reply.
“I’ll go with the obvious: he was born on third base and believes he actually hit a triple.”
This from the guy who brags about owning multiple homes. Lol.
“G — rates rose, purchase applications increased. Dispute that. Sorry but you are wrong. ”
Keep up your desperate attempt to move those goalposts. Anyone can see for themselves that your analysis about “when rates went over 5% for the first time in a few months” was wrong.
“can’t quite round home plate”
This from the John Marshal law grad. I don’t think that even bought you a ticket to the bleachers, sadly.
“I doubt they have published any of Chris Whalen’s information on PMI I linked to above either. Doesn’t mean its not true.”
I wouldn’t publish it, either, as written, as it *severely* muddies up the difference between PMI and CDS.
“Actually, no. It was a transposition typo. 118 N Clark. Recorder of deeds building.”
Wrong again, the recorder of deeds does not have its own building, it is merely a department on the basement and first floor of the county building.
“Instead you just come across like a jerk.”
I’m the jerk? You’re the guy telling me that I’m making up acronyms and allege that I attended a lower tiered (ranking 140) law school. None of which is true.
“I don’t think that even bought you a ticket to the bleachers, sadly.”
JMM can’t even grasp the concept that, for others, the ticket is earned and not bought for them.
So JMM I”m the marshall grad among a sea of t1 grads in my office. Amazing, I must have been top of my class!
“Keep up your desperate attempt to move those goalposts. Anyone can see for themselves that your analysis about “when rates went over 5% for the first time in a few months” was wrong.”
Unfortunately for you, I am right on this. Somehow in all your spare time you managed to conveniently miss the data that hurts your arguments. Probably intentionally, but still.
I simply pointed out was that as rates have risen, activity as also risen. Please quote me where I tie it to 5%? It was you who did that. Sabrina’s point was that rising rates, broadly speaking, were killing financings, when in fact it can often have a well understood yet somewhat paradoxical (at least maybe to someone as narrow minded as you) effect of increasing activity.
Ever hear of short covering as prices rise?
“So JMM I”m the marshall grad among a sea of t1 grads in my office. Amazing, I must have been top of my class!”
Your area of law isn’t particularly competitive nor is it particularly highly compensated. Plus your office might be you, a few other admitted attorneys and a bunch of lawyers legs. That is not exactly K&E.
Move those goalposts, move those goalposts.
Now, where is miumiu to clear up that lie of hers that I claimed to be a genius?
“That is not exactly K&E.”
You are revealing yourself to be a Biglaw alum, JMM. I doubt you really have any impact on the employment market of any attorneys, to be honest.
Fox & Obel in Streeterville is 4 months behind in rent ($330,600).
http://www.chicagorealestatedaily.com/article/20110323/CRED03/110329948/gourmet-store-tries-to-avoid-being-kicked-out-in-streeterville#ixzz1HQbg0tpJ
“As anon notes the prices for the tiers change over time, so even if the first sales is a long time ago, would still have to be in the lower tier for that period.”
But the assessment of what tier its in is done at the time of the 2d sale–so, eg, a Wilmette house sold in 1975 for $125k, and resold in 2010 for $750k (6x) (with nothing to indicate major renos, etc, to get it excluded). It gets down-weighted for being a long hold, but counts in the low-price tier. If I understand the index methodology, the fact that it sold for $750k should more than offset the long-hold down-weight and it will still affect the index more than a few houses that were 1 year hold sale pairs that all sold for $150k in ’09 and then $125k in ’10.
Now, it’s probably pretty likely that it’s going to get excluded altogether, as the 35 year hold period exceeds the life of the index, but that’s part of the proprietary info, so I’m just guessing.
“So Juliana and Sonies, what are good reading places? I would like to learn more about whats up.”
mew mew – most of the information I read you(or your company) has to pay for. As with most things in life, you get what you pay for
“Baird & Warner agent Coralie Norwell had a client whose red brick home in Evanston went under contract the same day it was listed for sale.
“Sometimes you just hit it,” she said. “There are a lot of people out (looking). Unemployment is down, and I imagine that has something to do with it.””
I’m sure Coralie Norwell is an economist or has an undergraduate degree in a similarly difficult subject…NOT.
Why the press quotes Realtwhores when they don’t quote such occupations as car salesmen is beyond me.
Plus what kind of parents name their kid Coralie? Sounds like they had no regard for her getting picked on growing up (unless she was hot, but at baby stage you really don’t know whether she’s hot or not).
“You are revealing yourself to be a Biglaw alum, JMM. I doubt you really have any impact on the employment market of any attorneys, to be honest.”
No not an alum. You are confusing me with Anon who probably does have K&E / top 10 law school type pedigree but is doing something else now.
“But the assessment of what tier its in is done at the time of the 2d sale–so, eg, a Wilmette house sold in 1975 for $125k, and resold in 2010 for $750k (6x) (with nothing to indicate major renos, etc, to get it excluded). It gets down-weighted for being a long hold, but counts in the low-price tier.”
Agree it’s done at the time of the second sale, but based on the price of the first sale, relative to the price tiers at the time of the first sale, no? So the $125K would need to be be in the low tier with tiers based on 1975 prices.
Not all realtors are that bad. Case in point:
http://www.chicagomag.com/Radar/Deal-Estate/February-2011/Jim-Cornelison-Anthem-Singer-Extraordinaire-Doubles-As-a-Real-Estate-Agent/
You could take a look at these to start with. I don’t follow all of them, don’t agree with all of them, but to each his own. I also follow Huffpo for general stuff, and husband follows Drudge and Daily Beast, though they are hardly what I would call spin-free. Also Marketwatch and Politico, though the cheerleading is annoying. The more you read, the easier it gets to filter the spin.
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,2057116,00.html#ixzz1FwxOpRiG
“So Juliana and Sonies, what are good reading places? I would like to learn more about whats up.”
Oh, please tell me, what am I missing that I could be paying for?
“mew mew – most of the information I read you(or your company) has to pay for. As with most things in life, you get what you pay for”
“Agree it’s done at the time of the second sale, but based on the price of the first sale, relative to the price tiers at the time of the first sale, no? So the $125K would need to be be in the low tier with tiers based on 1975 prices.”
Seems like that makes the most sense, but (1) that’s not how the methodology description (from the S&P site, search in the pdf for tier, and read every paragraph it comes up in) reads to me, and (2) seems to me like it would make the tier breaks misleading, and (3) seems awfully complicated for what looks like a quick and dirty tier splitting.
Oh, and the comments sections of blogs are always important for spin filtering.
the inside scoop!
I’m talking about market and industry/investment related material
General “news”, which is mainly just reactionary opinionated political propaganda BS, I can really do without and will use plain old yahoo or google news, even chicagobreakingnews dot com if I really need to hear about something important. I seriously couldn’t tell you the last time I watched the local news or a 24hr news network for more than a minute, it has been well over a decade.
most of those sites you listed are fine as general news sources, but marketwatch and tech ticker are both terrible, drudge and daily reckoning are too politically slanted for my tastes. I try to keep an even keel and not let my distaste for politicians cloud my investment judgement. So I pretty much filter out a LOT of crap out there. It is a battle, let me tell you!
I agree juliana, although it does depend on the blog since certain blogs attract a certain audience (like this one with RE bears)
“Oh, please tell me, what am I missing that I could be paying for?”
“I also follow Huffpo for general stuff, and husband follows Drudge and Daily Beast, though they are hardly what I would call spin-free. Also Marketwatch and Politico…”
Just to keep up with the vitriol being thrown about, a lot of the Time list is pretty week, frankly, and you’re not exactly improving upon it with your supplemental list. Did you miss USA Today and People for their detailed economic analysis/blurbs about something from every state?
“read every paragraph it comes up in”
Fair enough. I’d stopped after the first full discussion. It clearly says the allocation is done “depending on the position of the first price of the pair among all prices occurring during the period of the first sale”. But then it says they split so that they get “Each repeatsale pair is then allocated to one of the three tiers depending on first sale price, resulting in a repeat sales pairs data set divided into thirds” and I don’t understand how that automatically obtains.
So I’m a bit mystified, but you’re not saying they could be assigning tiers based on the 1975 price as it falls in 2010 tiers are you?
“So I’m a bit mystified, but you’re not saying they could be assigning tiers based on the 1975 price as it falls in 2010 tiers are you?”
That’s the simple explanation. If not, and they are using nominal dollars, then it approaches worthlessness, doesn’t it?
G – out of curiosity, what is your game? Are you renting and looking to buy? Are you facing foreclosure? It would be important to know your background so we can add or subtract credibility to your “conclusions”
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Evanston/2769-Garrison-Ave-60201/home/13770724
Evanston red brick colonial under contract in days.
The redfin PIN is wrong (05-35-317-002-0000) not (05-35-317-000-2000)
But that doesn’t change the point I wanted to make: no warranty deeds, mortgages or liens on the property since 1988 (except for a quickclaim to a trust) (I know it’s not quickclaim but that’s a joke, nevermind…)
My point is pricing power: If you can afford to price reasonably, and have the willpower to do so, you will sell your house quickly. No surprises here because you can undercut the market.
He’s my neighbor in uptown. He lives in the studio across the hall. Jeez.
“#clio on March 23rd, 2011 at 11:16 am
G – out of curiosity, what is your game? Are you renting and looking to buy? Are you facing foreclosure? It would be important to know your background so we can add or subtract credibility to your “conclusions””
So give me your list then. What news sources do you use that I missed? Please educate me on what I should be reading.
I stated that there was a lot of spin in some of them, and mentioned the necessity of reading the comments section, but where do you get your breaking news, for instance? Do you only read Reuters? I like reading comments and the sites I go to have comment sections. The discussion is frequently more valuable than the article.
“Just to keep up with the vitriol being thrown about, a lot of the Time list is pretty week, frankly, and you’re not exactly improving upon it with your supplemental list. Did you miss USA Today and People for their detailed economic analysis/blurbs about something from every state?”
Frankly, its easy to criticize. Harder to put out your own list for criticism. I’d love to see it. You obviously have great insight that is only available to the privileged few.
“G – out of curiosity, what is your game? Are you renting and looking to buy? Are you facing foreclosure? It would be important to know your background so we can add or subtract credibility to your “conclusions”.
I have given out plenty of my background. Your penchant for making things up about me obviously has you confused.
I just told you, @ 11:09AM
The information I typically digest is proprieatary research or “pay-for” newsletters. Some info that is worthwhile and I believe free to the public, go ahead and read Jeremy Grantham, Alan Abelson, and (some) John Mauldin’s outside the box.
Most of the rest of the stuff I read about the markets is not for public use
Huffington Post = I don’t trust a woman who married an obviously gay man who couldn’t run for office.
Drudge Report = A collection of off beat and conservatively biased stories, with no original content. Not a blog.
Politico is about the one real one you cite and that, quite frankly, is very mainstream. Hell it’s the WSJ of political news.
I am not a fan of short-form journalism for the analysis value. I read all the WSJ and most of the NYT every day, and every Economist, but take their analysis with a healthy grain of salt. I enjoy The New Yorker greatly. I check out the Financial Times here and there and also look to Bloomberg a lot. I’ve been keeping up a lot more since getting my Kindle. I also read a lot of the WSJ blogs and also try to read everything that Andrew Sullivan puts out. I read Volokh Conspiracy exhaustively and most of DeLong and McBride, so I’ll agree that a few of those on the Time list are good – but there are way too many bad ones. I also read a lot of stuff specific to my industry. From there I follow links. I consult as many primary sources as possible, and I don’t rely on others to tell me what things mean.
I have found that most stand-alone blogs are just shilling for advertising and have low quality writing and analysis. The Business Insider, seriously? It saddens me that The Huffington Post passes for journalism these days. And I’m shocked that you think that the comments on most of these blogs are “frequently more valuable than the article.” I think that most of Freakonomics is mis-represented populist schlock. I often feel they try to establish causation when the reality is that sufficient data, if available, on certain phenomena might not even establish correlation. I respect Krugman as an economist but think that most of his recent conclusions are wrong. He also suffers from failing to understand the limitations of his knowledge.
“I have given out plenty of my background.”
Owns two houses, both of which are under water. Lol.
Sonies I used to get a proprietary subscription hand written newsletter. I forget who published it but it was excellent. Sort of a macro market commentary that came out weekly or more often. The amatuerish drawings only made it more credible.
Was it Bob Bush’s ERIC newsletter? I could see him doing something like that a long time ago
“Owns two houses, both of which are under water.”
Another one who can’t keep their lies straight.
I get all my “news” from Cribchatter, Dealbreaker, and 4chan b.*
*NSFW
My take on the CC posters:
G – presents biased “facts” in an effort to crash the RE market so he can move out from under his tarp in the basement of a loop parking garage, steals wi-fi from a nearby Micky-D’s.
HD – is actually G.
Clio – Fictional personality created by two underemployed Second City alums for lulz.
Groove – is actually Clio.
Moo (GZA/Genius) Moo – Is married to one of the Second City alums that post as Clio. Also did it for laughs, that was the attraction.
JMM – Graduated right in the meaty part of the curve in his class at Boulder. Well, if they bothered to rank their students, that’s were he would have finished.
Anon aka “Don’t call me brah, bro” – Sidley, Kirkland, Jenner alum. Resident Illuminati member. He’s here to make sure the plebe’s undeserved sense of worth doesn’t overinflate. Will signal Illuminati to retreat to secret base (atop a tall smokestack in Montana) when CC conversation turns from “ELP” boundaries to guillotine engineering methods.
Sonnies – Publishes a poorly xeroxed investment newsletter that he hands out in front of Stocks & Blonds in exchange for wooden buffalo nickels.
you forgot
chicagobull -bob when he’s stoned on some good kush
Dan – bob when he’s drunk
bob – when he’s an overworked, underpaid, consultant/desk pilot for one of the local big corps
lol that was funny Chicagobull. I agree with Sonies that you, Bob and Dan are soul mates…hehe
Now as far as G, dude this is what you posted this morning on top of the tread:
*************************************************************
G on March 23rd, 2011 at 8:29 am
clio, my analysis of your conclusion indicates that you don’t want my analysis due to my age and genius.
*************************************************************
Now it might be the fact that English is not my first language but I read it as you claiming to be a genius.
I read all the mainstream corporate media you mention here too. Sometimes they are vehicles for trial balloons put out to gauge reaction, so I’m always watching for that. Other than that, you appear to lean conservative/libertarian, and I guess I am more progressive, so my reading list is different than yours. I didn’t say I read all 25 blogs. I probably think less of Krugman than you do. I respect your views, sorry you don’t respect mine.
Huffpo is mostly for entertainment. But I do appreciate their take on current events, like the AT&T merger. The headline business story there points out that bankers will benefit over consumers, as usual:
“Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities, told clients that the purchase could be worth upwards of half a billion dollars for JPMorgan after fees and other sorts of income over the coming years are considered.”
They also have links to Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, and FT for important stories, like this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/22/goldman-sachs-volcker_n_838932.html
Mass consumption, yes. But at least the information is getting out there.
“I am not a fan of short-form journalism for the analysis value. I read all the WSJ and most of the NYT every day, and every Economist, but take their analysis with a healthy grain of salt. I enjoy The New Yorker greatly. I check out the Financial Times here and there and also look to Bloomberg a lot. I’ve been keeping up a lot more since getting my Kindle.”
“but I read it as you claiming to be a genius.”
reread it with sarcasm as the intent of the whole post.
and @chicagobull “Groove – is actually Clio.” dude that one was from left field.
Oh, and about comments. I quit reading Huffpo’s comments for a long time because I was tired of the knee-jerk liberalism. Last time I read them, though, a lot have become disillusioned with Obama and thinking more critically. I get a little insight into the liberal mindset from reading comments. I love reading Marketwatch for the comments alone. They are so good at pointing out the propaganda.
For an example of an insightful comments section I enjoy reading, here is Naked Capitalism’s take on the PMI story I referred to above:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/03/fannie-and-freddie-hiding-over-100-billion-of-losses.html
miumiu:
You skipped the quoted language in G’s comment:
““G- I think we established that you should just stick to providing data and let the grown ups analyze it. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what is going on in the real estate market.””
His “my age and genius” was pretty clearly referring back to clio’s “grown up” and “doesn’t take a genius” comments. That’s all I’ve got to say on the hair-pulling.
G never anything but helpful to me. Still remember some ideas with my cove lighting, came out great.
besides who needs someone elses analysis of numbers, if I had a dollar for every time I saw people look at the exact same data and still form completely different opinions….
The comments section of nakedcapitalism is one of the places where the concept of jubilee thrives.
Groove and anon thanks for the clarification. I am not sure what beef G and Clio have, but G is very arrogant and disrespectful in his comments.
I don’t appreciate his constant bullying against anyone who disagrees or questions his data or viewpoint. HD has very strong opinions about the market but he never goes out of his way to insult and name call just to prove his point.
I don’t like engaging people who resort to name calling and personal attacks whenever logic fails them. Also use of words like evil, lies and so on constantly in ones posts irks me. I feel like I am against the ministry of love in 1984.
I read Yves every day, but my favorite guilty pleasure is zerohedge. Makes me want to invest in tinfoil sometimes, but I keep coming back for more.
“The comments section of nakedcapitalism is one of the places where the concept of jubilee thrives.”
“besides who needs someone elses analysis of numbers”
The innumerate and borderline cases?
In other words, 90% of Americans with college degrees, and a higher percentage of the rest?
“but G is very arrogant and disrespectful in his comments”
wow miumiu you are going with choice G on that side of the pairing.
the worst G before being provoked is calling a person a knifecatcher, which is is shtick. after provocation his gloves do come off quick but the bear has been poked so it justified in my mind.
and seriously G is the arrogant and disrespectful one in the choice between G and Clio (crap i said his name). really G? [please send check for damage to my desk sabrina she will forward it to me]
“The comments section of nakedcapitalism is one of the places where the concept of jubilee thrives.”
HD I thought you would be for it, just call it bankruptcy. It’s really not a complicated thing, you have 2 choices lessen the debt or monetize it. Either way no free f’n lunch!
Anon. I’ll buy 90’s
haha zerohedge makes me laugh, the commenters are almost as good as the lackeys at deadspin
The commentators are insane for the most part, a lot of goldbugs, thus the tinfoil reference. I quit reading them for the most part when i got tired of the “bitchez” dude always trying to get the first post. He may be gone by now. I have to say I was shocked to see zerohedge on that Top 25 list.
“haha zerohedge makes me laugh, the commenters are almost as good as the lackeys at deadspin”
“I read all the mainstream corporate media you mention here too. Sometimes they are vehicles for trial balloons put out to gauge reaction, so I’m always watching for that. Other than that, you appear to lean conservative/libertarian, and I guess I am more progressive, so my reading list is different than yours. I didn’t say I read all 25 blogs. I probably think less of Krugman than you do. I respect your views, sorry you don’t respect mine.”
Under traditional labels, I would be liberal/progressive on most issues, I just look to a lot of different kinds of sources. I am quite far from libertarian. I would agree more with the Utne Reader than The National Review, but I might be more likely to read the latter to see what people think. I did not mean to convey that I don’t respect your views (I’m not even sure I have read enough comments to know what they are), but I did suggest that I didn’t respect the sources you listed. If you had just put the Time list out there (though, as is Time’s wont, it’s more “popular” than “the best”), I wouldn’t have been too stirred up, but when you listed those additional sites, it really made me chuckle since that was the stuff you sought to put forth.
I am not really concerned about educated, literate people spending their time on silly blogs (I, for one, can’t resist clicking through all the Business Insider’s stupid lists), but it bugs me when it sounds like they aren’t getting any real news or analysis. Obviously, though, that’s not you.
I also think that the term “mainstream corporate media” is code for “I don’t like facts, analysis or standards of professionalism; I like my news with bias smeared all up in there.” If I’m going to go with a non-institutional source of news or analysis, it will probably be something from an academic, or maybe a professional, but there is something to be said for the standards, resources and access that major corporate media has.
Oh, and Sonies, I read Abelson in Barrons. I would have though the guy is a little bearish for your taste.
Hmmm, only one I put out that I read other than the Times Top 25 was Huffpo, and I defended it. The others were those my conservative spouse reads, just thought I’d put them out there, but I can’t defend them since I don’t lean that way.
“If you had just put the Time list out there (though, as is Time’s wont, it’s more “popular” than “the best”), I wouldn’t have been too stirred up, but when you listed those additional sites, it really made me chuckle since that was the stuff you sought to put forth.”
I’m skeptical of what comes out of academia. As the film “Inside Job” reveals, conflicts of interest are not disclosed in what they produce. And since I see our country slipping towards corporatocracy, which I see as a bad thing, I am very skeptical of anything coming out of the corporate world. It makes me lean progressive as the lesser of two evils.
“If I’m going to go with a non-institutional source of news or analysis, it will probably be something from an academic, or maybe a professional, but there is something to be said for the standards, resources and access that major corporate media has.”
“It makes me lean progressive as the lesser of two evils.”
Progressives are dedicated towards disenfranchising straight, while males. I hope you’re not married to one in that case.
“G – out of curiosity, what is your game? Are you renting and looking to buy? Are you facing foreclosure? It would be important to know your background so we can add or subtract credibility to your “conclusions”
His postings are data driven so we don’t need to know his “bias” as his “bias” is based in “facts”. But I know you’re game: you’re a douchebag with an iPad who doesn’t like being confronted with the reality of this real estate bust.
Groove, to be honest I feel exactly the same way you feel about G for Clio. I feel people constantly attack and provoke him and still he is quite a good sport. For instance, I don’t get all the nasty comments about his car and farm and all. So what he has lost some money on one of his investments. It might have happened to many of us. I find it a low blow to be so mean to him just because people know about his identity. Also I am not sure what have I ever said to G to merit all is provocative nasty comments.
Why Bob, no interest in becoming Mr. Mom? Maybe its the right kind of moral hazard. Maybe the “other side” would be less motivated by greed and power. And no, I’m married to a conservative, but I’m working on him.
“Progressives are dedicated towards disenfranchising straight, while males. I hope you’re not married to one in that case.”
“Progressives are dedicated towards disenfranchising straight, while males.”
[in the spirit the above was offered] and conservatives are dedicated to making the world America’s slaves and keeping women–American and otherwise–where they belong [/in the spirit the above was offered]
See how easy it is to say stupid shi… stuff about people you don’t agree with, that has an arguable kernel of truth in it? Fun!
Oh, wait, no, it’s not fun. Fu… Shi… Godd… Nuts.
“[in the spirit the above was offered] and conservatives are dedicated to making the world America’s slaves and keeping women–American and otherwise–where they belong [/in the spirit the above was offered]”
Goes along with ma, Don McLean and apple pie to me. 😀
lol.. yup because that is what history has been about, white males being victimized. It is the age of meritocracy, if you cannot compete you lose. It does not matter what color is your skin, or who you sleep with, or where you live for that matter. I think the mediocre people with sense of entitlement are all angry as they are losing their position of privilege.
“Progressives are dedicated towards disenfranchising straight, while males.”
“I don’t appreciate his constant bullying against anyone who disagrees or questions his data or viewpoint.”
You are a hypocrite for doing that to me.
“I don’t like engaging people who resort to name calling and personal attacks whenever logic fails them.”
You are a hypocrite for doing that to me.
“Also use of words like evil, lies and so on constantly in ones posts irks me. I feel like I am against the ministry of love in 1984.”
Then stop lying and acting evil. You have lied repeatedly about the content of my comments. If you don’t understand the commments here in their original language, perhaps you shouldn’t be quick to tell lies and call me names due to your potential lack of understanding? That would seem logical and reasonable to me, but you claim superior expertise in those fields so what do I know? It was you who chose to liken my actions here to Dan. You know exactly why you did it, too. You tried to marginalize my opinions (after your logic failed you) by hoping to conflate them with Dan’s. That was evil and you continue to attempt to justify your actions with further name calling. What a hypocrite.
“Then stop lying and acting evil.”
He is a DB with an iPad. He doesn’t like you because you are the messenger but he should really direct his anger toward himself for not cashing out at the peak of the bubble.
Ok now that you accuse me of calling you names without shred of evidence, I will give you a name: Hal from Space Odyssey : )
With that note, I am off shopping. Enjoy your exchange ladies and gents : )
The comment above was for G btw : )
“Ok now that you accuse me of calling you names without shred of evidence”
March 23rd, 2011 at 10:08 am
“you are a tool”
March 23rd, 2011 at 10:26 am
“You seriously are delusional.”
March 23rd, 2011 at 2:37 pm
“G is very arrogant and disrespectful”
“I don’t appreciate his constant bullying”
That is just in this thread today.
“That is just in this thread today.”
Inconceivable!!
No mention of the over/under in terms of how long Dan’s post last before it get’s deleted? I’m disappointed in you guys. I’ll throw my hat in the ring & guess 3 hours.
a lively one today.
“More anecdotal support for your theory: I am an independent consultant (software implementation) and for the last 2 years, I’ve had to really hustle to get work. However, in the last month, I’ve gotten 3 unsolicited offers, all of which were at least 10% over what has been the going rate for the last 5 years. They were all for long-term, high dollar projects ($15M+). Businesses are definitely starting to spend. ”
Same here (and same field). Been on the bench for a couple months but a flurry of activity lately. There is a seasonal component though and noone likes to hire when it’s eight degrees out, but this seems more than seasonal. I’m getting calls from headhunters in other states even. No I am not moving to Blue Ridge Virginia for a perm opportunity but that doesn’t stop them from trying.
Businesses are starting to spend again indeed.
Bob, with your driving habits, Virginia would be a bad choice 🙂
It’s appalacia and most of the counties are dry. Count Bob out.
Vdare.com blows away HuffPost when it comes to RE-related topics like the facts and intrigue behind the subprime/lending meltdown, American educational issues, demographics, etc.
FYI: My hosting site is going down shortly to upgrade its server facilities so you may not be able to post this evening. Don’t panic anyone! It will be fine tomorrow.