Market Conditions: Luxury Sales on Record Pace as Luxury Rentals Lease Quickly
Those who bet against America’s biggest cities 2 years ago when the pandemic hit are looking rather foolish right now.
New York City rents have surged to all-time highs of $4,000 a month while home sales have rebounded in every major city.
In Chicago, both luxury apartments and luxury sales remain red hot despite the worst start to the stock market in decades and a city-wide rise in crime.
From Crain’s:
As of June 9, there have been 55 homes in the Chicago area sold for $4 million or more, according to Crain’s tracking of the upper-end market. In the six years prior to 2021, an average of 52 homes in that price range sold per year. In 2021, amid the pandemic era’s surge in homebuying at all price points, the $4 million-and-up category leaped to a record 101 sales.
According to Crain’s, if this sales pace continues, luxury sales will hit a new record of 124 this year.
Not all of those are in the city of Chicago, as Winnetka has been hot so far this year with 12 sales. In 2021, Winnetka only saw 9 home sales over $4 million for the entire year.
Luxury Apartment Leasing Fast
In luxury apartments, there have been some doubts about demand for the high-end buildings that have come on the market in the last 2 years, including One Chicago, the latest mega-tower.
One Chicago, in River North at the intersection of Chicago, Dearborn and State, has two towers. The shorter one is all rental and the taller one is a mix of luxury apartments and luxury condos.
Leasing began last fall for the shorter tower and in 2022 for the taller tower. Closings are just beginning on the luxury condos.
From Crain’s:
The 75-story One Chicago has 77 condos on its upper 30 floors. Below them and in a second tower on the site are 735 rental apartments. Letchinger said the rentals on floors below the condos are about 40% leased and those in the other 49-story tower are 90% leased.
Chicago’s rental market has tightened dramatically in the last year. Even a mega-tower like NEMA along Grant Park in the South Loop appears to only have a handful of available units to lease even though it has over 700 units.
Wolf Point East, one of the most popular buildings in Youtube apartment hunting videos, is giving away a half month free rent if you apply for an apartment in the next 48 hours.
It has 698 apartments and it looks like about 50 are available if their website is accurate.
Can anything slow Chicago’s red-hot luxury market?
High-end homes sold like crazy last year. The market’s even hotter this year. [Crain’s Chicago Business, by Dennis Rodkin, June 9, 2022]
Nearby crime aside, this condo tower is now Chicago’s priciest (Crain’s Chicago Business, by Dennis Rodkin, June 2, 2022]
Yes they are fools for buying real estate in Chicago or NYC when they could have bought in the sunbelt or out west and nearly doubled their money already and sold their house.
“New York City rents have surged to all-time highs of $4,000 a month”
That’s just Manhattan, and that’s the median. Full report is here:
https://www.elliman.com/resources/siteresources/commonresources/static%20pages/images/corporate-resources/q2_2022/rental-05_2022.pdf
6,670 leases in the data pool, out of over 2.1m rentals in NYC.
So the top 0.001% is the metric we’re using to gauge HAWTNESS ™?
The luxury apartment utilization is a good indicator that there’s little value in owning in Chicago, all while having very low (relative) appreciation compared to other Metro areas
““New York City rents have surged to all-time highs of $4,000 a month”
That’s just Manhattan, and that’s the median. Full report is here:
https://www.elliman.com/resources/siteresources/commonresources/static%20pages/images/corporate-resources/q2_2022/rental-05_2022.pdf
6,670 leases in the data pool, out of over 2.1m rentals in NYC.”
And one wonders why people call her a shill…
Who knew Baghdad Bob would be reincarnated as Real Estate Rob
“So the top 0.001% is the metric we’re using to gauge HAWTNESS ™?”
This blog has always covered the GreenZone and has always done posts using the data that tracks the Class A downtown rents. Those rents do not cover someone renting a 2 bedroom apartment in Jefferson Park.
It’s been 15 years now.
If you don’t like what this blog covers, JohnnyU, you don’t have to be here.
And?
Manhattan is equivalent to downtown Chicago’s rental market, is it not? Were not BOTH supposed to be “doomed” in the coronavirus pandemic. Never coming back. Empty dystopian landscapes.
Lol.
Workers are NOT back in their offices. It’s only about 50% or 60% back just 2 to 3 days a week. Yet the major cities have sprung back to life. Millennials are back moving to them again. Chicago’s biggest towers are nearly 100% leased.
Sizzle.
The opposite of the bears gloomy picture has happened. Instead of doom, there is a boom.
“Yes they are fools for buying real estate in Chicago or NYC when they could have bought in the sunbelt or out west and nearly doubled their money already and sold their house.”
Lots of fools apparently want to live in world class superstar cities Mike HG.
What can slow this market? How about the pending recession, which I expect to be a crippling one.
With mortgage rates now well above 5% and inflation at 40-year highs, I’m afraid a slowdown is coming. The Fed will have to hike rates several more times, and even though the debt market has already anticipated this, there may be higher mortgage rates to come.
The only way to burst an inflation bubble this bad is to rate-hike the economy into a recession. That’s what the Fed did in the early 1980s. I’m not saying we’ll have 16% rates like back then, but in this era, even 6% or 7% rates might be enough to get unemployment spiraling from today’s 50-year lows. Too many people have too much debt, and so do many companies. They’re quite vulnerable, and jobs will vanish quickly.
It pains me to say all this, but I’ve been around long enough to see how it works. Every recession in my 51-year life has followed a period of shockingly high oil prices, and I see no reason why that won’t happen again now. The only nice thing about a recession is at least it might kill the oil rally, though Putin has made that a lot more difficult to do.
Let’s come back in a year to this chat. If I prove to be wrong, I’ll be happy to admit it.
“Manhattan is equivalent to downtown Chicago’s rental market”
Tell me youve never been to Manhattan without telling me you’ve never been to Manhattan
“Sizzle”
Again put you money where your mouth is – Let us know how many investment properties you have and where.
You’re a sheep bleating into the wind with no skin in the game
Dan #2 – Thoughtful analysis is not allowed here.
The mantra the RE only goes up is the only group think allowed. $5.00/gal gas only affect the plebes. Got to keep the poors and minorities out of the city
Johnny,
Glad you liked my analysis. It’s not often that I see you praise anything someone writes on this site, so I feel honored.
But I hope I’m wrong. Barron’s (in its new issue today) said chance of a recession remains low, so maybe they’re right. I want them to be.
“Millennials are back moving to them again.”
Again, do we think it’s 2010? Like when it was a “buyer’s market”?
The youngest millennials (26-30) might be, but most (30-41), if they’re already living in a major-city adjacent burb or some other area that is not inside of a major city, are not pulling up stakes and moving back into the city with their infants, toddlers and young school age kids. It’s pretty much time to phase out using “millennial” as shorthand for a host things, and phase in gen z.
Anonny – good point about millennials. Might explain why our North Shore home value is up about 40% since 2016.
Chicago #1 searched amongst Redfin users from…
Denver
Tampa
Cape Coral, FL
North Port, FL
Huntsville, AL
Charleston, SC
Knoxville
St. Louis
Indianapolis
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Des Moines
Columbus, OH
Appleton, WI
South Bend, IN
Madison, WI
Lansing, MI
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
#2
Cincinnati
Cleveland
#3
Phoenix
Nashville
Kalamazoo, MI
Burlington, VT
#4
Dallas
Portland, ME
Memphis
San Antonio
Omaha
Dayton
Tucson
#5
Austin
Miami
Houston
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Fort Collins, CO
Palm Bay, FL
Orlando
#6
Atlanta
Chattanooga
Asheville, NC
El Paso
#7
Boston
Santa Maria, CA
Birmingham, AL
#8
Las Vegas
Baton Rouge
Columbia, SC
Greensboro, NC
Greenville, SC
Lexington, KY
New Orleans
#9
Kahului, HI (Maui)
Raleigh
Salinas, CA
#10
Louisville
Richmond, VA
Little Rock
“The youngest millennials (26-30) might be, but most (30-41), if they’re already living in a major-city adjacent burb or some other area that is not inside of a major city, are not pulling up stakes and moving back into the city with their infants, toddlers and young school age kids.”
Those who lived in the city but fled to the suburbs during the pandemic and bought a house so they could have “space” including a yard, are NOT coming back now.
BUT, there are plenty of Millennials from other cities who are moving to Chicago because they want an affordable, large city. Chicago is the cheapest, for apartments or condos, of the bunch.
And despite all the doom and gloomers on this blog, most of whom don’t live in Chicago any longer, Chicago has a good reputation with younger people, both Millennials and GenZ, as a fun city to live in. We have it all except the weather. Great sports, amazing high rise buildings with views, great restaurants, cultural experiences, a good airport, beaches, bike trails, easy access to summer vacation hubs in Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan.
Job market is good. Even if you’re working remote, many younger workers, as I’ve said before, WANT to go back into the office a few days a week. They want to meet their work colleagues. They want to develop networks and make friends through work. Chicago’s a good place to do that. We have a reputation for being “friendly.”
The apartment market is so tight there are bidding wars on some of the cheaper units under $2000 a month. Downtown condos are cheaper to buy than to rent, even with higher mortgage rates. Eventually, those condos will be bought for that reason.
“It’s pretty much time to phase out using “millennial” as shorthand for a host things, and phase in gen z.”
True for some things anonny. Time has marched on. The oldest Millennials are middle age. But it’s still the Millennials who are driving home demand because they’re marrying later (average age closer to 30) and that’s normally when you buy your first home. It’s still mostly Millennials who are buying. They now command over 50% of the mortgages. GenZ is only 5%.
I agree with Sabrina about young people wanting to live in Chicago. My older son just graduated from college and has a job. He’s living at home here on the North Shore for now but looks forward to moving to the city and living with friends. His other friends feel the same, from what I can tell, as do children of friends and relatives. Of course we’re talking small sample size, but unless someone did a big survey, I’m not sure if I can offer more proof.
“Barron’s (in its new issue today) said chance of a recession remains low, so maybe they’re right. I want them to be.”
It’s low right now, but in 6 months? Anything could be happening. If the mortgage rates breach 6%, the housing market is going to stall. There’s always a trickle down with housing as that means less people buying furniture, doing painting etc. But more may simply remodel their current place.
There’s no doubt that the consumer is feeling the pressures from higher gasoline and food prices. The rural areas and further out suburbs are really taking it on the chin. Some people drive 60 miles or more, a day, to their jobs. High gas prices are a big tax.
Many start-ups are probably screwed and there will be job losses there too. The froth will get rung from the economy, slowing it. But that’s the point, right?
Good points, Sabrina.
Too much froth in the economy. Of course it’s because of all the monetary and fiscal stimulus since early 2020, and Republicans will be quick to blame Biden. But if he hadn’t pushed through fiscal stimulus (following the huge stimulus Trump and Republicans pushed through the previous year, by the way), it’s likely unemployment would now be 7% or more (it’s 3.6%).
So if that were the case, we’d hear Biden’s political opponents belly-aching about high unemployment. For Democrats, it’s pick your poison. After the Great Recession of 08, the Obama admin didn’t stimulate the economy enough. Biden was smart enough not to make that same mistake this time.
“BUT, there are plenty of Millennials from other cities who are moving to Chicago because they want an affordable, large city. Chicago is the cheapest, for apartments or condos, of the bunch.”
Link?
“And despite all the doom and gloomers on this blog, most of whom don’t live in Chicago any longer, Chicago has a good reputation with younger people, both Millennials and GenZ, as a fun city to live in. We have it all except the weather. Great sports, amazing high rise buildings with views, great restaurants, cultural experiences, a good airport, beaches, bike trails, easy access to summer vacation hubs in Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan”
Small sample size (n=5), non midwesterners, recent college graduates, Chicago wasn’t in any top 5’s
Sure Chicago will be a draw for the Iowa grad from Keokuk, but outside of the Midwest, not so much
“ Many start-ups are probably screwed and there will be job losses there too. The froth will get rung from the economy, slowing it. But that’s the point, right?”
Why are you rooting for America to fail?
“This blog has always covered the GreenZone and has always done posts using the data that tracks the Class A downtown rents. Those rents do not cover someone renting a 2 bedroom apartment in Jefferson Park.”
The greenzone is made up of $4MM > properties? Interesting
“If you don’t like what this blog covers, JohnnyU, you don’t have to be here.”
https://media.giphy.com/media/B1TMcmoBAaSZi/giphy.gif
“But I hope I’m wrong. Barron’s (in its new issue today) said chance of a recession remains low, so maybe they’re right. I want them to be.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=QvpP
“So if that were the case, we’d hear Biden’s political opponents belly-aching about high unemployment. For Democrats, it’s pick your poison. After the Great Recession of 08, the Obama admin didn’t stimulate the economy enough. Biden was smart enough not to make that same mistake this time.”
Stimulus was a good thing, the issue is the malinvestment, fraud & stupidity it wrought.
“Of course it’s because of all the monetary and fiscal stimulus since early 2020, and Republicans will be quick to blame Biden”
It was the hysterical Democrats that decided to forcefully shut down their cities and destroy millions of small businesses over a fake pandemic. They, their self absorbed base and their creepy ass corpse in the white house own this mess 100%.
Meanwhile TX and FL are laughing their asses off all the way to the bank…
I see the tin foil hat crowd has entered Crib Chatter. Yes, a “fake” pandemic. Tell that to the millions who lost relatives and friends.
And yes, the hysterical Democrats. Never mind it was the Trump administration that was in charge when the lockdowns occurred.
“Ed” needs to return from Planet X.
It was the hysterical Democrats that decided to forcefully shut down their cities and destroy millions of small businesses over a fake pandemic. They, their self absorbed base and their creepy ass corpse in the white house own this mess 100%.”
Meanwhile TX and FL are laughing their asses off all the way to the bank…”
Texas and Florida have no cities that were shut down? That’s a new one. Last I recalled, Miami was shut several times.
What do you think PPP and stimulus was all about? It actually SAVED millions of businesses.
Chicago is humming again. New businesses opening all over the place. Our entrepreneurs didn’t give up. There were even new restaurants opening up during the pandemic. They innovated. Turned to ghost kitchens and delivery. Leisure and hospitality is coming back. That was the final key.
“The greenzone is made up of $4MM > properties? Interesting”
Yes indeed. It’s where they are located JohnnyU. And it’s so obvious from your comments that you haven’t lived in Chicago in 30 years. And haven’t even visited in, I would guess, 5 or more years (based on how little you understand which neighborhoods are booming.)
Again, if you don’t understand that this blog mostly covers the GreenZone and apartments in it, then you need to go somewhere else. Start your own blog. It’s easy to do.
“Why are you rooting for America to fail?”
The economy is not made up of start-ups and nothing else. Start-ups always fail. It’s what makes Silicon Valley Silicon Valley. Everyone knows this.
VCs have warned companies that the money is tightening. They had better stop partying before it’s too late. But for some, it WILL be too late. That’s how the cycle works. Just ask anyone who worked at webvan.
I’ve worked in the start-up industry, so it’s certainly no surprise to me what’s going on.
Failure is good. Zombie companies are bad.
“Sure Chicago will be a draw for the Iowa grad from Keokuk, but outside of the Midwest, not so much”
It’s clear some of you don’t know any younger people, nor interact with any. Don’t have any younger grandchildren or great grandchildren or they’re too young to be graduating and looking for work?
Work is now nationwide. There is no longer “I graduated from Indiana and now I’m hoping to get a job in Chicago so I can live there.” There is simply “I graduated from Indiana and my company doesn’t care where I live. I WANT to live in Chicago so I’m moving there.”
This is the reality in the professional services businesses now. Marketing. Advertising. Finance (depending as some banks want you back). Most Fortune 500 companies. Tech companies.
And even if they require you to be in the office, you now can choose whatever city has an office and move there. Got a job at Apple? You could choose the Bay Area, Austin or Raleigh. They don’t care.
Things have changed post-pandemic.
And yes, there are PLENTY of young people who literally move from city to city to “try them out.” They get airbnbs for a month and see if they like it. Chicago is always high on the list. Why?
1. Affordability
2. Great restaurant/entertainment scene
3. Pretty and clean city
4. Sports teams are fun
5. It’s big and some that can’t afford NY want that
It really isn’t only Big Ten grads here anymore. You have to get into this era. It’s 2022.
Chicago is a beautiful, cool, vibrant city. It’s been featured on some popular show with Millennials and GenZ like Love is Blind on Netflix. Chicago looked AMAZING on that show. I really recommend people watch it so you can see what the city looks like through a young person’s eyes. The skyline. Beaches. Rooftop restaurants. The river. Boating on the river. It’s all there. They even put the cast up in highrises with great views of the Willis and John Hancock. It was a great promotion for the city.
Chicago rocks. That’s all.
Really, our affordability is a big part of it. Our apartments might be at record highs downtown but when you compare to other cities like NY, DC, San Francisco or LA, we’re still cheaper.
“I see the tin foil hat crowd has entered Crib Chatter.”
Yep. They’re back again. “It’s just the flu.”
And right on cue, the cases are rising in the south again over the summer. Just like they did in 2020 and 2021.
https://www.news4jax.com/health/2022/06/10/not-going-away-northeast-florida-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-rising/
Florida’s going to have a big outbreak again this summer. Let’s hope most aren’t hospitalized. Have to keep our hospitals from being overwhelmed.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2022/06/10/florida-covid-cases-climb-as-new-variant-arrives/
Florida’s COVID-19 cases kept climbing last week as two new variants spread across the state. Average daily cases from June 4-10 hit 10,630 last week, up 4% from the prior week. COVID-19 hospitalizations are creeping up as well. As of Friday, Florida hospitals had nearly 3,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients, up 13% from the prior week.
Overall numbers
74,407: Number of cases reported in Florida over the most recent seven-day period from June 4-10.
10,630: Average cases a day during that time period last week, an 4% increase from the previous week.
6,271,284: Total number of cases recorded in Florida.
264: Number of deaths reported in the past week.
74,852: Total pandemic deaths in Florida.
Here’s Illinois recent numbers:
We’re doing 6,147 new cases a day.
There have been at least 3,352,983 total COVID cases in the state since the start of the pandemic and, at least 33,926 related deaths.
Illinois in the past week:
Illinois health officials reported 34,001 new COVID-19 cases, including 73 deaths, over the past week as 32 counties are now rated at “high community level” for the virus.
In Florida: thankfully the vaccines and treatments are working to keep hospitalizations and deaths in check. Hooray! Science has worked.
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2022/06/10/floridas-covid-death-toll-leads-nation-262-one-week/7498191001/
Local sewage tests, meanwhile, reveal exponential spikes in coronavirus levels.
Palm Beach County on Monday posted its second-highest coronavirus wastewater level, readings from Biobot Analytics found.
The Loxahatchee River District, which sends north county sewage samples to the Boston-based laboratory, found 3,715 viral fragments for every milliliter of wastewater, more than twice as much since its last test, May 16, and the most since Jan. 3.
“(Fewer) people are testing because they’re not feeling as bad,” said Dr. Alina Alonso, director of the state-run Palm Beach County Health Department. “Which in turn makes it more spreadable, because you’re not testing.”
Sewage systems across the state in counties such as Miami-Dade, Hillsborough and Pinellas also have posted steady increases. Only in Orange County, home to Orlando, have viral counts in wastewater fallen since late May.
“And right on cue, the cases are rising in the south again over the summer. Just like they did in 2020 and 2021.”
yeah its almost like its an endemic seasonal virus that we just started testing for in 2020
its not fake, its a real virus, and it isn’t going away because its very much like the flu with its seasonality
“Yes indeed. It’s where they are located JohnnyU. And it’s so obvious from your comments that you haven’t lived in Chicago in 30 years. And haven’t even visited in, I would guess, 5 or more years (based on how little you understand which neighborhoods are booming.)”
LOL – Yeah, nothing under $4MM in the greenzone
“The economy is not made up of start-ups and nothing else. Start-ups always fail. It’s what makes Silicon Valley Silicon Valley. Everyone knows this.
VCs have warned companies that the money is tightening. They had better stop partying before it’s too late. But for some, it WILL be too late. That’s how the cycle works. Just ask anyone who worked at webvan.
I’ve worked in the start-up industry, so it’s certainly no surprise to me what’s going on.
Failure is good. Zombie companies are bad.”
Yeah no shit, Growth at any cost is done. Glad you’re waking up
So you’re still rooting for America to fail. Why do you hate the country?
“Work is now nationwide. There is no longer “I graduated from Indiana and now I’m hoping to get a job in Chicago so I can live there.” There is simply “I graduated from Indiana and my company doesn’t care where I live. I WANT to live in Chicago so I’m moving there.”
Said no one from outside the midwest ever.
“Really, our affordability is a big part of it. Our apartments might be at record highs downtown but when you compare to other cities like NY, DC, San Francisco or LA, we’re still cheaper.”
Probably because Chicago isnt at the same level as the 4 cities you listed.
Not saying this list is definitive or even correct but funny, no Chicago. https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/genz-cities/
Not saying you dont know any young people not drinking the Chicago Koolaid, but you dont know any young people not drinking the Koolaid
“Probably because Chicago isnt at the same level as the 4 cities you listed.”
Actually, it is.
Once again, you are literally rooting against one of America’s superstar cities. The one best situated to thrive in the next 100 years even through climate change. The one that is the economic engine of the Midwest. The one that is at the epicenter of food and transportation.
I don’t get it. Are you just jealous that you don’t live here JohnnyU? Is that why all the bitterness?
Chicago is rocking it right now and is at the top of the list of places where Millennials and GenZ want to live. There is a reason apartment vacancies are near record lows downtown.
Despite all the doom and gloom on this blog from people who have long since moved away, the city and state are actually doing okay despite our crappy weather and financial problems. We have the only luxury housing market which is doing better than 2021 where most of the others in the “hot” states are all slowing. I guess it pays not to have been in a bubble like Florida or Texas. We won’t fall as hard.
“LOL – Yeah, nothing under $4MM in the greenzone”
No one said this. Maybe you need to take a break from this blog.
“yeah its almost like its an endemic seasonal virus that we just started testing for in 2020”
Yep. We KNOW when we’re going to have outbreaks now. It’s been over 2 years. BA.4 and BA.5 are spreading quickly in Florida and will soon dominate. It’s the most contagious variant now. But vaccines and treatments are stemming the impacts, thank goodness. Hopefully, the vaccines hold against whatever future variants we get. Fingers crossed.
“Said no one from outside the midwest ever.”
Said someone who has never used TikTok, Twitter or YouTube where it’s pretty obvious who is moving to Chicago.
“Said someone who has never used TikTok, Twitter or YouTube where it’s pretty obvious who is moving to Chicago.”
Some kid from LeMars?
“Not saying this list is definitive or even correct”
So you’re saying that the yutes are drawn to Columbus (#3) and (gulp) FARGO (#2)??
If not, what does the absence of Chicago from that list actually say? That you can exclude Chicago by using strange criteria, goofy weighting, or both? Cool.
“1. Affordability
2. Great restaurant/entertainment scene
3. Pretty and clean city
4. Sports teams are fun
5. It’s big and some that can’t afford NY want that”
I agree with Sabrina on this and would add that Chicago has a surfeit of craft breweries and we aren’t in danger of running out of water in the short term. Chicago has a lot of housing stock. Apartments and condos are woven into neighborhoods with expensive single family homes. Assuming a person isn’t living in abject poverty, they can choose almost any neighborhood they want. There will be trade offs with quality, but if you love a particular neighborhood, chances are you can find someplace you can afford there as someone in your 20s without kids.
I also think the strong authoritarian nature of the red states is going to stop younger people from wanting to live there. I know a couple who moved to Texas during covid. Luckily, they rented and have an exit strategy. They are just going to such it up and move to southern California despite the high cost. The idea of being criminally investigated for a miscarriage or sued because of a suspected abortion is too scary for them to stay.
“ So you’re saying that the yutes are drawn to Columbus (#3) and (gulp) FARGO (#2)??”
I’ve heard it from good authority that Columbus is very HAWT
“If not, what does the absence of Chicago from that list actually say? That you can exclude Chicago by using strange criteria, goofy weighting, or both? Cool.”
Weird list (SF is 6)
Again, SSS and all but for non-Midwest grads, Chicago wasn’t on the radar
“ I also think the strong authoritarian nature of the red states is going to stop younger people from wanting to live there.“
You can’t make this up
CAT heading to Texas
Another F500 leaving
Who knew Irving Tx was such a world class city?
Compass & Redfin with mass layoffs
Extremely Bullish! Demographic trends be damned!
“Who knew Irving Tx was such a world class city?”
Already have a decent sized presence in Las Colinas:
https://www.dmagazine.com/commercial-real-estate/2021/04/caterpillar-inks-big-lease-at-williams-square-in-las-colinas/
Super easy access to DFW and the corporate jets.
“The Chicago-Naperville-Elgin region is neither a haven nor entirely out of reach for first-time homebuyers, according to a Bankrate.com study that ranked the nation’s 50 largest metro areas. Chicago and its surrounding communities landed in the middle: No. 28 overall.”
Via Crain’s, from https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/best-cities-for-first-time-homebuyers/
#15 on Affordability; #49 on Job Market (#50-NYC).
Job market ranking looks funky, tho. SLC is #1.
ps:
Ah:
“We ranked each metro area based on its March 2022 unemployment rate as reported by the U.S. Labor Department. The index also factored in each metro area’s average commute time, per Census data.”
“SLC is #1.”
I had been there many times in the 90s, but just to couch surf or stay at a cheap hotel when going to the bird. And stayed up in Park City a couple of times a dozen years ago while residing in Chicago. But really hadn’t spent much time in SLC as a “grown up” until around 2018 (wife was running a marathon). And by that I mean being at a place in life where one is paying attention to things like desirable looking neighborhoods, housing stock, nicer places to eat, parks, and proximity to office areas, the foothills, the ski towns, and airport. Leaving aside (1) the frequent poor air quality and (2) politics/LDS dominance, SLC really does check a lot of boxes and I could see why a lot of younger folks would want to make a life there. It’s mostly really beautiful – Denver is actually quite far from the foothills, but SLC is nestled right in there, more like Boulder. Cool neighborhoods, a nice range of housing classes, easy to get around, very short airport trip and such a shorter distance up to the mountains than in CO (I actually took a taxi from the airport up to PC on a visit from Chicago). The olympics really helped drag them into the 20th century and loosen things up with booze (though they’ve still got a ways to go to be more normal in that regard). It may take another half a generation or so, but eventually it will have fully caught up with the non-LDS world, and could be giving Denver a run for its money as far as attracting people from around the country.
Wasn’t intended as a “dunno who would live in SLC”, but hard to believe that’s the best young/er adult job market.
but ranked by a metric of low UE + short average commute, sure.
“You must hate America.”
Typical right-wing cop-out comment they use when they have no real argument to make. Instead, question their opponent’s patriotism. Archie Bunker did that all the time. Is that really the person you want to remind people of?
“ Typical right-wing cop-out comment they use when they have no real argument to make. Instead, question their opponent’s patriotism. Archie Bunker did that all the time. Is that really the person you want to remind people of?”
I agree, Sabrina is a racist like Archie
Ps – it’s sarcasm using her inability to have a coherent though or be consistent. Disagreeing with the party currently in power is not a good metric of feality to the concept for which the country stands
YMMV
“CAT heading to Texas
Another F500 leaving”
This one is a shock. They’ve been in Illinois for 100 years. It’s just 230 jobs but you never like to see a HQ leave.
I always thought the Deerfield move was a mistake. Rahm tried to get them into the city but they chose to stay outside, which had to hurt recruitment, to some extent. Nearly every other major company that has moved in the last 8 years has chosen the city.
None of the media articles really gives any satisfactory reason “why” they chose to move. Maybe it will save them money? Maybe the leases are cheaper. I don’t know. Maybe the CEO simply wants to live full-time in Texas.
DFW and O’Hare aren’t that different. Both are pretty good international airports. Illinois remains the manufacturing hub though. It’s much like when Boeing HQ left Washington State but most of its manufacturing, at that time, remained there.
It’s too bad.
“Compass & Redfin with mass layoffs”
Housing market has hit a brick wall with 6.3% mortgage rates. Chicago and the suburbs are, surprisingly, holding up pretty well right now. But we didn’t see the massive gains either. It wasn’t a bubble here.
But it’s going to slow everywhere. Buyers will be in shock in the next month or two when newbies who haven’t locked in at 5% try to qualify at the bank.
There’s really going to be trading down by this fall. Instead of buying at $400k, many will have to buy at $300k.
If you look what is under contract in the Chicagoland area, it’s mostly the “affordable” properties under $500k.
Inventory remains incredibly low but now I expect the housing market to grind to a halt. Inventory should rise over the summer but I also think we won’t see as many properties come on the market as we might have otherwise. Even the sellers have figured out it’s a different market right now.
Many people will hunker down in their current properties because they’re priced out of moving with the higher rates.
Could see 7% later this summer.
For 14 years we’ve had discussions on this blog about what would happen when rates rose significantly. Now, they have. Will it be the 1970s again?
“ This one is a shock. They’ve been in Illinois for 100 years. It’s just 230 jobs but you never like to see a HQ leave.”
It’s not a shock and you can crow about ADM moving 200 jobs to Chicago but CAT moving 200 out is NBD?
“ None of the media articles really gives any satisfactory reason “why” they chose to move. Maybe it will save them money? Maybe the leases are cheaper. I don’t know. Maybe the CEO simply wants to live full-time in Texas.”
Closer to MX for Mfg (Ptown jobs are toast long term – RIP Big Als/Alices) and Brazil (Ag buisness)
Yeah, my timing couldn’t be better for being part of this great experiment. Under contract in NC and about to put my house in Chicago on the market. Volume will definitely be down. The only thing I can hope for is for supply to be as affected or more affected than demand. You would think that at the higher prices almost all the buyers own homes – i.e. if the buyer decides to sit on the sidelines then it’s also a seller sitting on the sidelines. The only thing is that I think you’re going to be sitting on the sidelines a long time if you plan on waiting for mortgage rates to fall.
“ Housing market has hit a brick wall with 6.3% mortgage rates. Chicago and the suburbs are, surprisingly, holding up pretty well right now. But we didn’t see the massive gains either. It wasn’t a bubble here.”
So demographics doesn’t trump all?
“ Inventory remains incredibly low but now I expect the housing market to grind to a halt. Inventory should rise over the summer but I also think we won’t see as many properties come on the market as we might have otherwise. Even the sellers have figured out it’s a different market right now.”
Nposdible with all the Millennials & GenZ buyers
What would cause inventory to rise, Lower price points for sellers properties?
And then you expect lower inventory. You can’t make this up…
What have sellers figured out? They need to lower ask to make the monthly payment = to a 3% rate environment? But what about demographics, thought that was key…
Such a shill, JoeZ is embarrassed
Good luck Gary, hope you don’t need to cut the ask too much
I have to wonder how much no state income tax figured into CAT’s decision to move to Irving. Of course, I’m too lazy right now to look up Irving property taxes but Dallas’ property taxes are actually worse than Chicago’s.
Just for fun…you know I grew up in Dallas but I went to school in Irving for like 8 years. This was before Las Colinas, before 114, before DFW, before Texas Stadium. Nothing but dirt out there. Yeah, I’m feeling pretty old. But amazing how it’s changed.
“So demographics doesn’t trump all?”
People are STILL going to buy JohnnyU. Millennials are the largest generation in US history. Buyers bought in the 1970s and they will in 2022 and 2023. This is why I said, we will see what happens with rates being at 10 year highs along with prices at all-time highs everywhere but downtown.
The market is going to grind to a halt, however, while everyone adjusts to these rates. Presumably, if you are out looking in June, you’ve locked in something around 5%. The 6% rates will really hit in late summer/early fall.
In Chicago, there is the option to trade down. If the bank is no longer going to approve you for $400,000, you can still find properties at $325,000. Other cities, not so much. I expect the lower priced, affordable properties, to remain in strong demand as they are currently. The middle tier of $400k to $1 million could get hit the hardest. Those would be move-up buyers so they have equity, but the higher mortgage rates really hit their buying power.
The rich have more assets and are more likely to increase their downpayment to keep it affordable.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens at a time when rents are also at record highs and occupancy is over 95%. You have to live somewhere. If you have the money for a down payment, you may still go for it but you’ll trade down.
This is a market unlike any most of us have ever seen as most of us weren’t thinking about housing in the 1970s as those rates rose sharply.
It’s going to be a ride.
“What would cause inventory to rise, Lower price points for sellers properties?”
Sellers won’t want to “give it away.” They will stay stubborn with the price even though it’s completely different market conditions. As prices remain elevated, inventory will rise. But it was at record lows going into this and still remains at record lows. It’s going to take months for inventory to rise enough for it to become a buyer’s market.
And no seller is going to lower their price to make it equal to a 3% rate environment. None. That is laughable.
As Jenny described one of her friends who was a new buyer a month ago, she went to her bank and got pre-approved. Let’s say rates were at 5% by then. They run the numbers and tell her that she can buy up to $500,000. She would have no idea that 6 months ago, her income would have qualified her for $625,000 because rates were 3%. Nor does she care. She is now looking at properties that are $500,000.
No seller has to lower their price to find the 3% buyer because those buyers are now 5% buyers and are looking at completely different properties. The seller with the $625,000 will get the buyer who had previously been qualified for $750,000.
The only people who are shocked by higher rates are those on the coasts who cannot trade down to a cheaper property and are completely priced out of buying. And some first time buyers who are on the very bottom of the housing scale and were stretching to get into a home at all. Now they may be priced out as well.
“The only thing is that I think you’re going to be sitting on the sidelines a long time if you plan on waiting for mortgage rates to fall.”
Life happens. People need to move. The job market, for now, is still strong. There are always people moving to Chicago for work in the upper bracket. Inventory is still near record lows, as you know Gary. There are still properties selling in the first week even with 5% rates.
“It’s not a shock and you can crow about ADM moving 200 jobs to Chicago but CAT moving 200 out is NBD?”
Yeah- it’s a shock. No rumors that they were even looking to move. Their lease has some time left on it in Deerfield, apparently. They will take a year to move so probably won’t happen until 2023.
But, again, JohnnyU, you don’t live in Chicago and aren’t familiar with the business community here. You have no clue what is going on.
Any time a city can get a fortune 500 HQ it’s a big deal. ADM didn’t make the same mistake as CAT when it moved the HQ from Decatur. They went directly into the city. None of that suburbs nonsense.
And do you really think they need to be in Texas to be “close” to manufacturing or Brazil’s ag business? Come on. When was the last time you flew on an international flight? If they were moving to Houston, maybe your argument might make some sense with all the Mexico connections they have from that airport, but Dallas?
Nah. Their main business is in China now. I’m sure DFW has plenty of Asia and Europe flights though. I’ve never heard complaints about that airport from the business community.
They aren’t moving because of the airport. That is silly with O’Hare here. They haven’t said why they are moving. It’s odd. But, like I said, maybe the CEO just likes Texas and wants to be there. Who knows?
“Of course, I’m too lazy right now to look up Irving property taxes but Dallas’ property taxes are actually worse than Chicago’s.”
Right. You don’t escape taxes in Texas just because they aren’t taxing income. Property taxes are sky-high there. I recently found out that increases are capped each year or else they would be in a world of pain this year after those gains the last 2 years.
“maybe the CEO just likes Texas and wants to be there”
Current CEO is ~64. I’d wager it is succession planning, and the *next* CEO is (wants to be) in Texas.
They moved to Deerfield in 2017, and the current CEO became CEO on January 1 of
…
2017.
“Nah. Their main business is in China now.”
Not really supported by their latest annual report.
“The market is going to grind to a halt, however, while everyone adjusts to these rates. Presumably, if you are out looking in June, you’ve locked in something around 5%. The 6% rates will really hit in late summer/early fall.”
Vs
“Sellers won’t want to “give it away.” They will stay stubborn with the price even though it’s completely different market conditions. As prices remain elevated, inventory will rise. But it was at record lows going into this and still remains at record lows. It’s going to take months for inventory to rise enough for it to become a buyer’s market.
And no seller is going to lower their price to make it equal to a 3% rate environment. None. That is laughable”
I’m guessing you dont see the absurdity in these 2 statements.
What adjustment are buyers going to make, increase DTI to 50%?
In general, I dont see Millennials & older GenZ going the GenX route of buying something and over time improving. They’re an instant gratification group. They wont be urban pioneers without 90% of the work being done for them
“Any time a city can get a fortune 500 HQ it’s a big deal. ADM didn’t make the same mistake as CAT when it moved the HQ from Decatur. They went directly into the city. None of that suburbs nonsense.”
LOL, if thats the reason why not just move the office to Chicago?
“They aren’t moving because of the airport. That is silly with O’Hare here. They haven’t said why they are moving. It’s odd. But, like I said, maybe the CEO just likes Texas and wants to be there. Who knows?”
Freedom. One state is dystopian, anti-business, and willing to lock it’s citizens inside and forcing them take fake vaccines for a fake pandemic all while destroying it’s small businesses. The other state values freedom, does not participate in a fake political pandemics and is growing by hundreds of thousands of transplants a year. Are the CEO’s of all these companies conspiracy theorists too or are they smart and getting the Fuq away from the lunatics running blue states? We know the answers, no need to hysterically shriek back.
“forcing them take fake vaccines for a fake pandemic”
Who is the conspiracy theorist here? Reams of data. Over 1 MM dead in the US and you still think it’s fake? What universe do you live in?
“As Jenny described one of her friends who was a new buyer a month ago, she went to her bank and got pre-approved. Let’s say rates were at 5% by then. They run the numbers and tell her that she can buy up to $500,000. She would have no idea that 6 months ago, her income would have qualified her for $625,000 because rates were 3%. Nor does she care. She is now looking at properties that are $500,000.”
Jenny’s “Friend” is financially illiterate. And unless s/he doesn’t have any friends that have purchased recently, is going to be sorely disappointed
“I have to wonder how much no state income tax figured into CAT’s decision to move to Irving.”
Right to work and don’t have to worry about frivolous lawsuits since the loser pays costs.
UT Austin is a better engineering school than UofI and Texas A&M is tied in the rankings with UofI for engineering. More and better engineering talent?
I’ll be interested to see if some of CAT’s manufacturing shifts out of Illinois over the next few years.
“I always thought the Deerfield move was a mistake”
The Deerfield move was for the key management to be near a major international airport and likely helped recruitment for those roles as well.
“Rahm tried to get them into the city but they chose to stay outside, which had to hurt recruitment, to some extent. Nearly every other major company that has moved in the last 8 years has chosen the city.”
Those major companies that relocated to the city where relocating from the burbs not from central illinois. I doubt it hurt recruitment to say to a C Suite type the office is outside of Chicago instead of in the city compared to the previous choice of Peoria.
“don’t have to worry about frivolous lawsuits since the loser pays costs”
It’s a nice soundbite, but I don’t see that it’s terribly effective in practice.
Truly goofy lawsuits are mainly filed by judgment proof plaintiffs, and you can’t get blood from a stone, even without considering the availability of bankruptcy and the Texas homestead exemption.
And it appears that defense counsel rarely invoke the post-settlement offer provision regarding fees.
“The market is going to grind to a halt, however, while everyone adjusts to these rates. Presumably, if you are out looking in June, you’ve locked in something around 5%. The 6% rates will really hit in late summer/early fall.”
Without points arent rates at near 6% now?
“Without points arent rates at near 6% now?”
There is an implied assumption that everyone has 30-60 day rate locks when they are house shopping, so July closings are based on May rates.
“As Jenny described one of her friends who was a new buyer a month ago, she went to her bank and got pre-approved. Let’s say rates were at 5% by then.”
A friend sold her townhouse a month or so ago and paid cash for a condo. The first buyer ended up not being able to get financing. Not sure why. The second buyer was a jerk about wanting a completely upgraded place when she priced it $200,000 less than an upgraded place, but that sale went through.
I would not have been able to afford my current house at 5% interest. I would have felt financially stretched even though I probably could have still technically be approved.
At this point, I am not sure what’s going to happen in the housing market. The job market is still strong, but the fed seems to be trying to change that by making it difficult for businesses to get loans to invest. If the job market is strong, people aren’t going to be willing to sell at a loss. Something would need to change to force people to sell (such as job losses) before we see housing price decrease substantially in cities like Chicago.
However, at this point, nothing would surprise me.
“Who is the conspiracy theorist here? Reams of data. Over 1 MM dead in the US and you still think it’s fake? What universe do you live in?”
The fact the losers in IL, NY, Ca are still playing along with the Covid BS shows how lost you people / places are. We moved to FL already and travel all over the southland, you guys are the laughing stock of the 80% of the country that’s not Libtardopia. Reams and Reams of data, lol, all party approved and straight from Fauci, ccp and the DNC too right? You people truly deserve all the pain your about to get. When IL mandates fake vaccines for school age children watch the exodus of families go into overdrive, nobody’s putting that crap in their kids except the insane. And please, stay the fuq out of TX and FL, dont need you destroying these places too. IF I could dump my property in Chicago at a decent price I’d have no attachment left but the market sucks that bad here despite what the NAR cheerleaders.
“The rich have more assets and are more likely to increase their downpayment to keep it affordable.”
This is exactly the opposite of what the “Rich” would do.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Very bullish!
“The State Senate Majority Leader is black.”
Huh. Did not know that, and I’ve met Don.
“The CEO of Chicago Public Schools is black.”
They fired Pedro already, and replaced him?
“The Commissioner of the Department of Water Management is black.”
He resigned in 2020. Andrea Holthouse Cheng has been the Commissioner for a little over a year.
“This is exactly the opposite of what the “Rich” would do.”
That’s not what Toll Brothers said was going on with its customers on their last conference call. They are bringing more cash to the table.
“We moved to FL already and travel all over the southland, you guys are the laughing stock of the 80% of the country that’s not Libtardopia.”
231 dead from Covid in Florida in the last week. That’s a jet liner crashing every week. But keep acting like it’s “over” Ed. Good luck to you down there this summer. I hope you’re vaccinated.
Also, I think it’s interesting that Ed hates Illinois so much but he still wants to read a Chicago housing blog.
It’s okay Ed. You can admit that Chicago is a wonderful city with great architecture. And you miss it down in Florida.
“The Deerfield move was for the key management to be near a major international airport and likely helped recruitment for those roles as well.”
You can’t get to O’Hare from Fulton Market? This would be the same requirement of ALL Fortune 500 companies looking to move to the Chicago area. Yet they all mostly ended up IN the city, not the suburbs, over the last 8 years. CAT was one of Rahm’s few losses.
“I doubt it hurt recruitment to say to a C Suite type the office is outside of Chicago instead of in the city compared to the previous choice of Peoria.”
230 employees. All of the big companies have said that being in the suburbs hurt recruitment with Millennials. They couldn’t get those living in Lakeview to drive out to Oak Brook, especially in tech. This is why Walgreens opened up a big tech office in downtown Chicago even as it kept its official HQ in the burbs.
Not everyone working at CAT’s headquarters is in the C-Suite.
“That’s not what Toll Brothers said was going on with its customers on their last conference call. They are bringing more cash to the table.”
You said “Rich”, not the buyers of Toll Brother homes (Which isnt the rich).
The only thing I see about DP is that Mommy and Daddy are helping more
From the May 22 Conf Call – https://investors.tollbrothers.com/~/media/Files/T/TollBrothers-IR/documents/events/transcripts/2022/tol_transcript_20220525.pdf
“about 30% of our buyers are first-time
homebuyers. Now they’re buying more expensive homes than what I’d call a traditional starter home. As we
talked about, it’s our 3 Series BMW. And I don’t – I can’t give you that answer. I’m not sure whether our mortgage
team, Marty can get that, I’m not sure we know exactly where it comes from. But I’m with you. I think mom and
dad are helping out a lot.”
Do you have a link to where they state the Rich are increasing their down payments in a rising interest rate environment?
“UT Austin is a better engineering school than UofI and Texas A&M is tied in the rankings with UofI for engineering. More and better engineering talent?”
Ba ha ha. This just keeps getting funnier and funnier.
With work-from-home it doesn’t matter where your engineers go to school or even where they live.
“Jenny’s “Friend” is financially illiterate. And unless s/he doesn’t have any friends that have purchased recently, is going to be sorely disappointed”
America is a monthly payment nation. They will only care what their monthly payment is. And they will buy a house based on that.
It will take some adjustment in the market, however. And that’s why sales will stall for the next few months. Interestingly, sales really haven’t slowed much as rates have gone from 2.75% to 5%. But 6% should do it. Right?
“What universe do you live in?”
The one that still believes that Trump is president, I’m afraid.
“230 employees. All of the big companies have said that being in the suburbs hurt recruitment with Millennials. They couldn’t get those living in Lakeview to drive out to Oak Brook, especially in tech. This is why Walgreens opened up a big tech office in downtown Chicago even as it kept its official HQ in the burbs.”
C suite isnt tech.
“Freedom. One state is dystopian, anti-business, and willing to lock it’s citizens inside and forcing them take fake vaccines for a fake pandemic all while destroying it’s small businesses.”
CAT has women executives. I’m sure Texas is going to be a very difficult move for them. Going forward, it’s going to be really hard for Texas businesses to recruit talent.
“LOL, if thats the reason why not just move the office to Chicago?”
ADM did move its office to Chicago. CAT was wooed by Rahm like he did all the others. No idea why the executives decided on Deerfield. Maybe someone wanted a house on the north shore after all those years of living in Peoria.
“With work-from-home it doesn’t matter where your engineers go to school or even where they live.”
Tell me you dont know anything about engineering, without saying you dont know anything about engineering.
With tech layoffs, its going to matter even more where you matriculate from.
I’d also state that for the typical UG, as long as you’re in a top 20 program in your discipline, you’ll be fine.
“I’m guessing you dont see the absurdity in these 2 statements.”
Totally in line. One talks about the buyer’s mentality. The other talks about the sellers mentality. Inventory will rise as sales slow. But it’s coming off a record low so it was always going to move up again. Honestly, given what’s happening out there right now with the properties under contract, it’s going to be a tight market in Chicago for the rest of this year. Fall buyers will have more to choose from, however. But we’re not going to 6 months inventory any time soon.
“ADM did move its office to Chicago. CAT was wooed by Rahm like he did all the others. No idea why the executives decided on Deerfield. Maybe someone wanted a house on the north shore after all those years of living in Peoria.”
Moving from Deerfeild to Chicago is easier than Deerfeild to Dallas
You are extremely dense when wrong
“In general, I dont see Millennials & older GenZ going the GenX route of buying something and over time improving. They’re an instant gratification group.”
Oldest Millennial is 41. I think we have a pretty good idea as to what they’re going to “do” with their housing.
“Totally in line. One talks about the buyer’s mentality. The other talks about the sellers mentality. Inventory will rise as sales slow. But it’s coming off a record low so it was always going to move up again. Honestly, given what’s happening out there right now with the properties under contract, it’s going to be a tight market in Chicago for the rest of this year. Fall buyers will have more to choose from, however. But we’re not going to 6 months inventory any time soon.”
Maybe if you’re drunk
otherwise its more of your BS
“With tech layoffs, its going to matter even more where you matriculate from.”
What tech layoffs?
U of I grads will be just fine. But those Texas petroleum engineers will really be cashing in the next few years.
“Oldest Millennial is 41. I think we have a pretty good idea as to what they’re going to “do” with their housing.”
Yes and its what I said
“With work-from-home it doesn’t matter where your engineers go to school or even where they live.”
From the horses mouth….
“Caterpillar’s comments on Texas were telling. The company told Bloomberg the move would improve access to talent and praised Dallas’ two airports.”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/juice/caterpillar-headquarters-move-illinois-cant-be-trend-joe-cahill-crains-juice
“CAT has women executives. I’m sure Texas is going to be a very difficult move for them. Going forward, it’s going to be really hard for Texas businesses to recruit talent.”
Not every women is a pro-choice white “progressive” liberal……
From the same Crains article….
“The notion that blue-state social policies are an economic drawing card also took a hit. Caterpillar and Boeing are moving to states where progressive priorities are under attack.”
“What tech layoffs?”
Do you live under a rock or hitting the bottle earlier in the day since real estate is slowing down?
“Maybe someone wanted a house on the north shore after all those years of living in Peoria.”
We’re 3 decades deep in organizations moving HQs to satisfy CEOs.
Umpleby came to Cat (via acquisition) after over 2 decades living in San Diego. Seems like the first opportunity he had to get out of Peoria, he took it.
“Do you live under a rock or hitting the bottle earlier in the day since real estate is slowing down?”
There were more tech layoffs last year then there have been this year. It’s YOU who is hitting the bottle early, apparently. In fact, through May, Challenger Gray & Christmas said ALL layoffs were at their lowest level since they began tracking them in 1993.
Believe it or not, through April, the industry with the most layoffs was healthcare. But you’re not hearing about it on TV or from Elon Musk so you don’t even know it’s happening.
From Challenger Gray & Christmas:
Job cuts varied widely among the 19 industries the firm tracks and ranged from a few hundred in the first four months to over 10,000. The industry with the highest number of job cuts over the first four months was health care/products, at 15,928, which was up from 8,881 in the same period of 2021. The industry includes hospitals, health care products manufacturers, and other care-related companies.
Here’s the May data where tech did see the most layoffs. It was…4,044. Fintech saw 2059. But Healthcare still leads for the full year.
Technology
Companies in the Technology sector announced 4,044 cuts in May, up 781% from the 459 cuts the industry announced in January through April. It is the highest monthly total since December 2020 when companies in this industry announced 5,253 job cuts. So far this year, this industry has announced 4,503 job cuts, down 7% from the 4,854 cuts announced in the same period last year.
Fintech
Meanwhile, Fintech companies announced 268% more cuts in May than in the first four months of 2022. In 2022, Fintech firms announced 2,059 cuts, a 270% increase from the 556 announced in the first five months of 2021.
“Many technology startups that saw tremendous growth in 2020, particularly in the real estate, financial, and delivery sectors, are beginning to see a slowdown in users, and coupled with inflation and interest rate concerns, are restructuring their workforces to cut costs and shore up capital,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/may-2022-challenger-report-job-cuts-fall-overall-but-explode-in-tech-fintech-construction/
I was going to crib on this 1873 Old Town farmhouse this week but it went under contract in 6 days.
Just a 2-bedroom and no parking. Listed at $975,000.
The market is still red hot.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1749-N-Fern-Ct-60614/home/12792653
“Reams and Reams of data, lol, all party approved and straight from Fauci, ccp and the DNC too right?”
OK. So you do believe in conspiracies then. Because in reality the data is rolled up from individual hospitals, local authorities, states, and the federal government. Thousands of people pore over this data and dissect it and nobody has uncovered a conspiracy. Or do you believe that all these people are part of the conspiracy? For instance, the 1 MM deaths includes 75,000 in Florida. So you think Deathsantis is in on the conspiracy too? And all the data ties out. Life expectancy is down by a year or two and there are more then 1 MM excess deaths.
“fake vaccines”
How have you concluded that the vaccines are fake? Again the data are overwhelming about who dies from this. What data are you looking at?
“Companies in the Technology sector announced 4,044 cuts in May, up 781% from the 459 cuts the industry announced in January through April. It is the highest monthly total since December 2020 when companies in this industry announced 5,253 job cuts. So far this year, this industry has announced 4,503 job cuts, down 7% from the 4,854 cuts announced in the same period last year.“
There were more tech layoffs in May, than in all the previous months in 22, June looks to be worse, yet you want to argue “what tech layoffs”?
Dial it back on the boxed wine, ok?
“Just a 2-bedroom and no parking. Listed at $975,000”
2011 PP + CPI = $863k, before accounting for the new baths, etc.
Nice DINK/empty nester spot. I’d live there.
Went fast bc it was priced well.
“What data are you looking at?”
Terrible FB memes.
Initial Q1 GDP (reported 4/28, for quarter ending 12/31/21) was expected to be +1.1% but was -1.4%.
Revised Q1 GDP (reported 5/26) was expected to be upward to -1.3% but was downward to -1.5%.
Initial Q2 GDP for quarter ending 3/31/22 drops July 28.
Two consecutive negative quarters = recession.
Current Atlanta Fed Q2 forecast = 0.0%.
April 19, 2022: “Could see 3% GDP this year which would be red hot. … In 2032 we’ll see 4% GDP.”
http://cribchatter.com/?p=28412#comment-1220555
I’ll take unders on 3% if you’re still there.
I think owning in the GreenZone will come back stronger after a few years of rental as the safe bet, even though I think Fulton Market area luxury rental is being overbuilt at the moment. And we’re going to have to ride out a few years of instability with an unpopular mayor perceived as presiding over a cesspool of crime and looting in the right wing media (and from what I see on our local WL politics group, a lot of doom saying from several former or soon to be former Chicagoans living the good life in Florida or a far suburb like Crystal Lake).
I’m hoping that with the ward redistrict we get a strong alderman in our new “SuperLoop” 34th Ward, and that the relative small supply of larger units after today’s market selling low compared to some expectations near the Loop and North Side gives future sellers more of a seller’s market than it’s been since the pandemic. But yes, it’s a good time to work at home and rent today…and the Mag Mile is going to have to survive a lot of adjustment to the decline of brick and mortar commercial real estate, or at least anything other than short-term leases.
Good thing we don’t have to consider refinancing until 2028, though….
“I’m hoping that with the ward redistrict we get a strong alderman in our new “SuperLoop” 34th Ward, and that the relative small supply of larger units after today’s market selling low compared to some expectations near the Loop and North Side gives future sellers more of a seller’s market than it’s been since the pandemic”.
I mean “Near North Side” to be clear…couldn’t edit the post so just to clarify.
Gary, you’re right but it’s no use trying to talk to those people. They are completely convinced and they are fools. Never argue with one.
“Gary, you’re right but it’s no use trying to talk to those people. They are completely convinced and they are fools.”
LOL!! We have the very worst president in perhaps all of US history, leading the country in every single direction downward, and yet there are many troglodytes who will defend Biden when he’s clearly Trump’s inferior on every level of competence.
You simply cannot reason with people who are ideologically confined in their paradigms. It’s impossible to open some people’s minds to better ideas.
We’ve been through all the COVID bs before, but Gary is still spewing the same wrong line. Gary: The “vaxxes” for COVID are not vaccines, they are experimental mRNA gene therapies. Merriam-Webster had to change their definition of “vaccine” to accomondate these novel therapies. So dishonest, and you don’t care how dishonest the Left is. All. The. Time.
The COVID death numbers are inflated and many how spoken out about how the classifications inflated the numbers. It happened that way.
The vaxxes don’t do what we were told they would. They do not stop infection or transmission. FACT. Deal with it.
But it’s no use trying to talk to these people. They are completely convinced and are fools. I don’t know why I am arguing with fools. Ugh.
I’m not going to engage with HH. Anyone who thinks Trump was anyone’s superior in anything is deluded.
“I’m not going to engage with HH. Anyone who thinks Trump was anyone’s superior in anything is deluded.”
Look at this. Biden is being rejected by his own party as we speak, they’re suggesting he not run in 2024, and I have to deal with the likes of a Dan #2’s denial of the real world.
Some people are simply beyond help with their blind ignorance and low IQs. He proves my point.
“We have the very worst president in perhaps all of US history, leading the country in every single direction downward, and yet there are many troglodytes who will defend Biden when he’s clearly Trump’s inferior on every level of competence.”
Reminder: Biden has created more jobs at this point in his time in office than any other US president. Jobless claims are at 53 year lows. And he got passed the largest infrastructure plan since the 1950s when we built the US highway system. The very infrastructure plan that 6 other presidents all tried to get passed, to no avail.
But keep on saying he’s the “worst president” ever. GDP didn’t plunge over 30% on his watch like it did under 45.
We know HH is an old man who spends his days absorbing all the conspiracy theories and going down the rabbit hole in his basement in Iowa. Just ignore him. I will remove his racist, sexist, homophobic, anti-semitic comments.
“Gary, you’re right but it’s no use trying to talk to those people. They are completely convinced and they are fools. Never argue with one.”
Yep. You cannot discuss actual reality with them. The January 6 Committee could have Trump on tape plotting the coup and they still wouldn’t believe it. Don’t waste your energy. Better to channel it into the campaigns so that you get better politicians into office.
“I think owning in the GreenZone will come back stronger after a few years of rental as the safe bet, even though I think Fulton Market area luxury rental is being overbuilt at the moment.”
I still believe some of these rentals will ultimately become condos. There are relatively few condo buildings in that neighborhood (actual Fulton Market and NOT the West Loop) and there are plenty of people who would like to actually BUY there, especially empty nesters.
“Initial Q1 GDP (reported 4/28, for quarter ending 12/31/21) was expected to be +1.1% but was -1.4%.”
Sigh.
Omicron outbreak hit the quarter. Without it, we wouldn’t have been negative. All the negative nellies are the same ones over the prior 10 years who always shouted “recession” every time a major winter storm slowed the US economy in January and we saw negative GDP for the quarter. And the Omicron outbreak was even WORSE than a winter storm because it impacted the nation, and not just the east coast or midwest. It really slowed the economy in a big way.
60,000 Americans dead in January alone. Restaurants and retail stores shut for a week or two weeks, in some cases. National restaurant chains reported terrible comps, in some cases negative, in January and February. Saw it bounce back in March. Americans stayed home during that outbreak. Hospitals filled.
How quickly we forget.
I don’t know what we’ll do with GDP this year now that the Fed is finally moving aggressively. The economy is red hot. Layoffs at lows last seen in 1993. Too many job openings. Housing market overheating. They are going to slow it. But how much? We don’t yet know.
“There were more tech layoffs in May, than in all the previous months in 22, June looks to be worse, yet you want to argue “what tech layoffs”?”
Apparently, someone has never worked in the tech industry to understand that 4,503 job cuts when the US economy has created millions of jobs in 2022 is nothing.
By the way, industry analysts believe tech will create 178,000 new jobs in 2022.
This is a LOSING argument JohnnyU. Move on.
Go preach your doom and gloom somewhere else. It doesn’t exist in the job market right now.
“Dial it back on the boxed wine, ok?”
Bringing up the drinking thing again when you don’t have an argument, huh? You and WP. It got old years ago.
Time to get a new shtick.
“ Apparently, someone has never worked in the tech industry to understand that 4,503 job cuts when the US economy has created millions of jobs in 2022 is nothing.”
Nice job moving the goalposts. You’re still wrong
“By the way, industry analysts believe tech will create 178,000 new jobs in 2022.”
Link?
“This is a LOSING argument JohnnyU. Move on.”
Trying to have a rational discussion with you is a losing proposition. Doesn’t change the fact you are wrong and an idiot
“Go preach your doom and gloom somewhere else. It doesn’t exist in the job market right now.”
Sorry facts don’t matter to a shill
“ Bringing up the drinking thing again when you don’t have an argument, huh? You and WP. It got old years ago.”
Sober up, you are flat out wrong.
Embarrassing
“Sorry facts don’t matter to a shill”
Huh? I gave you “the facts.” You all are freaking out about “tech layoffs” and that it means the economy is doomed when they are actually LOWER than last year.
LMFAO.
So yeah, what tech layoffs? You need to divert your attention to healthcare layoffs, apparently, because at least you can argue those are over 10,000 so the doom is for sure coming with such a “high” number.
But healthcare job losses doesn’t fit the bear narrative.
Move on already. Thousands of tech jobs are being created this year.
I was going to crib on this top floor vintage 2/1 in Lincoln Park this week but it has now gone under contract after 2 weeks.
You don’t see many of these in Lincoln Park anymore.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1927-N-Hudson-Ave-60614/unit-3/home/13346380
I was going to crib on this 3-bedroom townhouse near the Clybourn Corridor in Lincoln Park this week but it, too, has gone under contract already.
Took a week.
Listed at $925,000.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1624-N-Burling-St-60614/unit-C/home/13346139
Hi guys, I just checked in to see how you all are. I see that most of you are still around.
We have moved to Europe, but I miss the Windy City.
For whatever it is worth, there are uniformed anti vaxx conspiracy theorist here too, but thank heavens at much lower density 🙂
“LOL!! We have the very worst president in perhaps all of US history, leading the country in every single direction downward, and yet there are many troglodytes who will defend Biden when he’s clearly Trump’s inferior on every level of competence.”
How did you get from a vaccine discussion to defending Biden? This sort of jumbled thinking explains how you come to your insane conclusions.
But if you want to debate the two presidents all we have to look at is the facts. I know that’s hard for you but it should be done. Fact: Trump was told repeatedly that there was no fraud yet he kept telling the country that there was fraud. Fact: After failing to convince Pence to declare a coup he tweeted insults about Pence that whipped up the crowd into a frenzy and they wanted to “hang Mike Pence”. Fact: After hearing that Trump said that Pence deserved it.
And this is the guy you worship?
This is why I argue with people like you. So that you create an indelible digital record of your twisted thinking for the entire world to see.
“The “vaxxes” for COVID are not vaccines, they are experimental mRNA gene therapies.”
You can call them whatever you want. Call them a serum for all I care. Doesn’t change the fact that they are safe and effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths.
“The COVID death numbers are inflated and many how spoken out about how the classifications inflated the numbers.”
So 10s of thousands of people conspired to inflate these numbers, from every single hospital to every city, county, and state health organization? And how do you explain the excess death numbers that exceed the Covid death totals? How do you explain the reduction in life expectancy?
“The vaxxes don’t do what we were told they would. They do not stop infection or transmission. FACT. Deal with it.”
You should try dealing with the FACTS for a change. We were told they would reduce hospitalizations and deaths and they did. People who thought like you are now dead. Darwin is right again.
“Huh? I gave you “the facts.” You all are freaking out about “tech layoffs” and that it means the economy is doomed when they are actually LOWER than last year.”
You initially said what Tech layoffs.
Then you moved the goal posts to – “Well its lower than last year” Which is immaterial to the initial response and the rate of layoffs is concerning as the economy is facing heavy inflationary pressures and Tech is moving out of Growth at any price to make money.
You ignoring the huge increase in tech layoffs (May larger than Jan-Apr) is on par
“So yeah, what tech layoffs? You need to divert your attention to healthcare layoffs, apparently, because at least you can argue those are over 10,000 so the doom is for sure coming with such a “high” number.
But healthcare job losses doesn’t fit the bear narrative.”
Why wouldnt they? It also depends on what the jobs are/were. If they’re Covid related, they were temporary in nature. If they’re RN/MD/DO – yeah that would be concerning. If its insurance companies getting their heads out of their asses – that would be awesome. The odds of the last is the same as you being sober after noon.
“Move on already.”
Sober up already
“But if you want to debate the two presidents all we have to look at is the facts.”
They both are for the most part terrible
Anyone arguing different is a clown
As I said, I will delete HH’s nonsense comments.
Go spew hate and conspiracies somewhere else.
“So 10s of thousands of people conspired to inflate these numbers, from every single hospital to every city, county, and state health organization? And how do you explain the excess death numbers that exceed the Covid death totals? How do you explain the reduction in life expectancy?”
He doesn’t Gary.
And whenever someone dies of natural causes the anti-vaxxers immediately blame the vaccine. It’s really sick out there. I understand wanting to debate them Gary but you really can’t reason with them. It’s a waste of time.
“You should try dealing with the FACTS for a change. We were told they would reduce hospitalizations and deaths and they did. People who thought like you are now dead. Darwin is right again.”
—————————————
Gary, you do realize it’s going to be worse in North Carolina, right?
“Hi guys, I just checked in to see how you all are. I see that most of you are still around.”
Welcome back Miumiu! Thanks for checking in.
I had to go check when the last time we heard from Miumiu.
It was 2017.
“Gary, you do realize it’s going to be worse in North Carolina, right?”
Yikes.
But he’ll be in the Research Triangle area so his coffee shop discussions should be relatively tame.
By the way Gary, I used to think like you do about “reasoning” with the conspiracy crazies. I thought facts would set them free. But they could always twist it in some bizarre way. There’s a reason some family members have just had to say good-bye, permanently, to people in their inner circle because there is no reasoning.
There’s a good book that just came out about the Sandy Hook deniers and why they are still doing it 10 years later (and now starting to do the same thing with Uvalde.)
Here’s an essay adapted from the new book. It’s chilling. Even the woman’s children have had to turn away.
https://slate.com/human-interest/2022/06/shooting-school-texas-uvalde-sandy-hook-conspiracy.html
“Gary, you do realize it’s going to be worse in North Carolina, right?”
Worse is some ways, better in others. I’m a centrist that actually leans right and hate both the extreme right and the extreme left. As with the rest of the country all the urban areas are blue. They have a Democrat governor and one of the Republican senators actually worked on the senate gun violence prevention bill.
Here is the other thing…what’s the point of me writing to Democrat politicians in Illinois about gun violence prevention or climate change? But in NC…
Helmethofer,
Are you a Kayak denier? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE0rochxJgo
“I’m a centrist that actually leans right and hate both the extreme right and the extreme left.”
I’m sorry Gary, but this sentiment, expressed by self described centrists or moderates, is a big part of what’s gotten us to the place we’re at and from which there is likely no return.
The so-called “extreme left” has zero impact on a national scale and not much impact locally. Who are the leaders of this “extreme left,” and what are the top three worst policies that are in effect as a result of their leadership? Are you talking about AOC and Bernie? Are you talking about certain parts of Portland, OR, Seattle, or SF? Do those “leaders” and areas keep you up at night – are they a threat to your children’s and (future or current) grandchildren’s future?
The so-called “extreme right” is not that all – it is the GOP platform, at most state (see, e.g., the TX GOP’s platform released over the weekend) levels and obviously at the national level. Any Republican to the “left” of what you call “extreme right” is politically dead in the water in most areas and, in fact, are in actual physical danger. The guys you’re seeing barging into state capitols with ARs over Covid mandates and storming the U.S. Capitol to rend our constitutional republic assunder and dressing up in matching riot gear to beat folks up and marching through towns with tiki torches simply have more guts than the soccer moms and golf dads who are voting MAGA and looking the other way, but the numbers of those craving and training for politically motivated violence is growing every single day.
The right is actively preparing to soak U.S. soil with the blood of their fellow Americans and liberals are arguing whether $10k would be too much to forgive for student borrowers.
“how do you explain the excess death numbers that exceed the Covid death totals?”
Gary, duh, it’s the kosher nostra conspiring with Soros and the Clintons to kill the undesirables.
What I don’t get is how, if the Soros conspiracy is so strong, there aren’t 100s of thousands of reliable D votes among non-resident domiciliaries in states like the Dakotas and Wyoming–they all have businesses that provide mail forwarding, so you can register to vote there, and spend your time somewhere else. For relative chump change, a it would be easy to flip those states.
“Any Republican to the “left” of what you call “extreme right””
You mean Dan Crenshaw?
“Dan Crenshaw is a traitor! He needs to be hung for treason!”
“The right is actively preparing to soak U.S. soil with the blood of their fellow Americans and liberals are arguing whether $10k would be too much to forgive for student borrowers.”
Fiddling while Rome burns.
“The so-called “extreme left” has zero impact on a national scale and not much impact locally. Who are the leaders of this “extreme left,” and what are the top three worst policies that are in effect as a result of their leadership? Are you talking about AOC and Bernie? Are you talking about certain parts of Portland, OR, Seattle, or SF? Do those “leaders” and areas keep you up at night – are they a threat to your children’s and (future or current) grandchildren’s future?”
I call bullshit. It’s this group that have been first and foremost responsible for the extreme increase in crime the past few years. The ones who coddle criminals by letting five time criminals out to commit more crimes, who refuse to charge them, or charge them only with greatly reduced charges. The naive liberals who want to “defund” the police and hopefully some of whom will contend for Darwin Awards in the process. These far-left types are a huge threat to the future of cities like Chicago and are far more likely to contribute to the demise of these same cities than some rural AR-15 loving Trumper in most cases. They are extremely relevant at the local level in urban areas, like what this blog focuses on.
Yes, cities like Portland and SF are complete shit compared to what they have been, or could be & the pollyanna thinking that got them there is dangerous, and and needs to go. I hope the recent recall of Boudin is representative of a shift in thinking.
Centrists are the only sane people left. Whether it’s gerrymandering right-wing assholes like Ron Johnson or activist Prosecutors like Foxx, both sides can get fucked.
Sid V: You’re wrong (“liberals” wanting to “defund the police”, LOL) and you’ve cited nothing specific in support of your opinions, but guess what – because you too (being a supposed centrist and using a term like “right-wing assholes”) are going to be in grave danger over the next couple of years (and not because black teenagers have been allowed to go crazy in the “urban areas”, but because Gen. Flynn is going to be ordering the MAGA Army to kick in your door too), out of an unwarranted and likely non-reciprocal spirit of empathy, I’ll be rooting for your survival just the same as I do for those who actually understand that the failed local policies in cities like Chicago or parts of SF or Portland are not, in fact, what’s led to this country breaking apart in a type of civil war that’s never been seen in the history of mankind. When your door comes down, try telling the Proud Boys or other goons trained by an Eric Greitens-type that you “call bullshit.”
“I’m sorry Gary, but this sentiment, expressed by self described centrists or moderates, is a big part of what’s gotten us to the place we’re at and from which there is likely no return.”
I’m not clear on how my sentiment has any bearing on the behavior of people on the far left or the far right. However, the two extremes feed off each other and it escalates. Some group on the left takes a cultural stand that scares a group on the right and then the right wing crazies come out. That is then countered by the likes of Antifa. Lather, rinse, repeat.
How many people on the right really want “to soak U.S. soil with the blood of their fellow Americans”? Most of the ones I know just want to be able to buy an AR=15, pay low taxes, and ban the teaching of certain topics in schools.
“Who are the leaders of this “extreme left,” and what are the top three worst policies that are in effect as a result of their leadership? Are you talking about AOC and Bernie?”
Yeah, it’s the squad and Bernie and Elizabeth Warren. They are promoting an economic disaster. Elements of the Green New Deal actually made it into the Democratic platform, though they’re not really being pursued by our centrist president thank God. But it’s scary enough that people like my brother would vote for Trump rather than risk their policies becoming law.
“Do those “leaders” and areas keep you up at night – are they a threat to your children’s and (future or current) grandchildren’s future?”
Crime keeps me up at night. Local taxes keep me up at night. The fact that people in this country prefer other cities to Chicago keeps me up at night. I’m driving a 12 year old car because I refuse to pay sales tax on a new one. So I decided to move. I can work remotely.
“the likes of Antifa”
The handful of hipsters in places like Portland, who don’t have much to lose, and are thus willing to break some windows late at night? By the time the votes are counted in 2024, we’re going to wish that “Antifa” had actually been a well organized and well funded national network of thousands of tough individuals from a broad range of society willing to show up and brutally overwhelm any public expression of fascism, from the likes of a Charlottesville tiki torch march to the next MAGA Busch Light Putsch.
The Green New Deal? Good God, I haven’t even thought about climate change for a couple of years. Worrying about things like that, or infrastructure, or healthcare funding, or whatever – those are things that citizens of stable, rational, functioning nations can focus on.
“Elements of the Green New Deal actually made it into the Democratic platform”
The largest state GOP’s official platform is the end of the United States.
How are those two remotely comparable?
“The largest state GOP’s official platform is the end of the United States.”
huh I haven’t heard a peep from Sara Palin in years
““Elements of the Green New Deal actually made it into the Democratic platform”
The largest state GOP’s official platform is the end of the United States.
How are those two remotely comparable?”
Did somebody say they were comparable?
yeah, that was poorly phrased.
But Gary’s (sub rosa) false equivalence was exactly what nonny was talking about.
ps: it’s not for lack of Sarah trying that you haven’t heard from her.
“Did somebody say they were comparable?”
You imply the hell out of it Gary–
you say “i hate the extremes of both sides” and then call out the Green New Deal as the great threat to the nation.
the great threat to the nation is those who are actually calling for the end of the nation. Or taking control of the government by violence.
A bad policy, that never had a chance of passing, simply isn’t in the same ballpark.
“Or taking control of the government by violence.”
like what happened in seattle and other cities in 2020?
pretty sure those Jan 6 retards accomplished nothing, and will continue to accomplish nothing
Anonny, your perspective is badly skewed. Because I live in Chicago, and the real world, crime and taxes are far bigger concerns than Proud Boys knocking down my door any time soon. This is comically overstated in fact. While I agree that the right represents a larger *existential* threat to the survival of democracy in the US longer term, it’s left-wing policies and the bottomless taxes and crime they generate that are a bigger threat to my life, liberty and pursuit of happiness in practical terms today. I am not going to overlook or excuse the failings of the left just because the right is innately “more evil”, which it is, but living in Chicago it’s also largely irrelevant to me in daily life, at least for now and likely longer term because you give the likes of the Proud Boys far too much credit.
And it’s not leftists leading the charge to “defund” the police? What are you smoking?
I don’t agree with all or even most of the democrat’s policy, but at least they can be debated. Even the more extreme left policies can be debated because at least there is some basis in reality.
You can’t debate the far right policies because they are all policies of hate. You can’t debate politicians who want the government in your bedroom, controlling your basic autonomy. You can’t debate people like the half-werewolf/half-man Cruz who has decided that being gay is “wrong.” You can’t debate people who refuse to accept basics facts, like who was elected or that state legislatures don’t just get to send the electors they please to overturn an election.
There is no comparison between the “extreme left” and the “extreme right.” One wants to spend a lot of money on things that are debatable and regulate businesses (also debatable). The other wants to kill off those it dislikes, force women to give birth, arm teachers, and allow teenagers to murder people and hail them as heroes. They want to decide which pronouns a person chooses to use. WTF? Why should the government decide what pronouns one uses? This country is falling apart. Who knows if red states will even bother will elections after this year. Once they get Big Lie believers into office, they will just change the elections to their preferred outcome.
It’s frustrating when people say they are in the middle. What does that even mean at this point? Where is the middle? The republicans can’t be debated anymore. They are a hate group and society shouldn’t act like they are still a legitimate party.
What state’s GOP is larger than TX’s? Maybe FL or CA, but that would surprise me.
Sarah Palin is likely heading to Congress.
“And it’s not leftists leading the charge to “defund” the police? What are you smoking?”
LIBERALS, Sid, liberals. Liberals like the ones who made Lincoln Park the highest dollar Obama fundraising zip code. Like me, who (can barely afford to) live in a town where the median home price last month was $1,272,500 and who is very excited to spend next week in Chicago.
“Sarah Palin is likely heading to Congress.”
Is she?
She got 28.3%% in the primary for the special election to fill out the remainder of the guy’s term but there were 47 other candidates and combined they all got 71.7%.
Is 28.3% her high mark?
4 of them are in the run-off. Second place is a Republican who got 19.5% and third place is an independent who got 12.8%.
Also will be interesting to see who wins the actual primaries for the Nov election which is being held on the same day.
“LIBERALS, Sid, liberals. Liberals like the ones who made Lincoln Park the highest dollar Obama fundraising zip code.”
No one has talked about defunding the police in Chicago for a long time. People are living in the universe from 2 years ago. Time to move on.
Chicago still has a serious crime problem. They have made strides with the retail theft task force and the carjacking task force. Many arrests have been made. But there’s still more to do.
It helps that life, and people, have returned to the streets. There’s less shenanigans on the El when it’s packed with fans going to Wrigley. Hotels were at 80% occupancy last weekend, the highest of the pandemic and there wasn’t even a major festival or concert in town.
“Who knows if red states will even bother will elections after this year. Once they get Big Lie believers into office, they will just change the elections to their preferred outcome.”
Wasn’t this just what happened in New Mexico in the Republican primary there? They wouldn’t certify it because they didn’t trust the mail in ballots or something. The state court had to step in to certify it.
“It’s left-wing policies and the bottomless taxes and crime they generate that are a bigger threat to my life, liberty and pursuit of happiness in practical terms today.”
It’s so interesting that “taxes” are slotted to the left when states like Texas have among the highest property tax rates in the nation.
“pretty sure those Jan 6 retards accomplished nothing, and will continue to accomplish nothing”
The Jan 6 coup attempt was always going to fail. It always fails the first time. The authoritarians learn from the first attempt. Democracy may not be so lucky on the second attempt.
And there will be another attempt.
“like what happened in seattle”
Seattle is the capital of nowhere, and as far as I can tell, no one was calling for the hanging of anyone.
This counts as GOP discourse in Texas at this point:
“Dan Crenshaw is a traitor! He needs to be hung for treason!”
“No one has talked about defunding the police in Chicago for a long time. People are living in the universe from 2 years ago. Time to move on.”
Indeed. “Defund the police”, espoused by an almost immeasurably small number of people for about three weeks, was a talking point for right wingers for about three months, but it’s been ages. There’s been a freedom convoy (lol), a freak out about CRT, and now a freak out about trans kids and drag queens. The right wing outrage machine will move onto something new any day now.
“Cruz who has decided that being gay is “wrong.””
It’s worse:
He’s such a craven little twat that he realizes that talking about tehgayz motivates people to vote for him.
I don’t believe for a moment that Rafael gives a wit about the ‘morality’ (or whatever) of homosexuality, he just cares about getting people whipped up.
If he could get a similar response by talking about hot dogs, whiskey or Japanese cars, he talk about that instead (or too).
“I was not preplanned”
Yes, you’re ridiculous anti-semitism, etc., does seem more like the organic growth of a tiny mind, incapable of preplanning.
“cops opened some of the doors.”
Some did, and some just stood there too. Hopefully those officers have been under investigation and we’ll be seeing some prosecutions soon. That there weren’t dump trucks hauling MAGA corpses out of there should be something that troubles everyone. The fact that only one insurrectionist was shot and killed is itself a huge scandal and indication of a massive, traitorous crime.
“It was a spontaneous occurrence that turned into a riot, but one where no significant damage was done”
One need not be competent to be a traitor. The country is only still hanging on by a thread because of the fact that Trump, the circle of grifters and scumbags around him, and their Jan 6 mob, were all so inept. Once it’s people like Josh Hawley and Gen Flynn running the show, the country won’t be so lucky – those guys won’t be holding press conferences at Four Seasons Landscaping.
“Nobody cares if someone wants to fist someone else in their bedroom.”
You seriously cannot be that blinkered.
“I was not preplanned, nobody brought weapons, there were undercover Feds and fake MAGA Antifa involved, cops opened some of the doors.”
Helmethofer’s comments are being deleted. I don’t care what he says when he promotes the Big Lie. There is literally thousands of pages of documents and texts showing the planning for Jan 6 and hundreds of people have gone to jail. More will be charged, I’m sure.
It was a coup attempt against our nation complete with trying to insert a slate of new, fake electors. And people are dead as a result.
They will try to subvert democracy again. The authoritarians are already out there with their propaganda. Just as HH is here on this site spreading the lies.
“The country is only still hanging on by a thread because of the fact that Trump, the circle of grifters and scumbags around him, and their Jan 6 mob, were all so inept.”
Yep. Agree anonny. Trump and his band of characters were stupid, and they’re also old. If Trump was 55 and had attempted this, the country would be in much more trouble. At age 76, he will fade away pretty quickly off the stage.
But as it is, someone else will take over from Trump who isn’t as dumb. Someone who learned from his mistakes in the first coup attempt and will try it again. The plans are already being put in place with the Big Lie and trying to win the Secretary of State jobs so they can claim fraud when the Republicans lose again in 2024.
And other institutions have lost their authority as well, including the Supreme Court which has become politicized.
All is not lost, but warning bells are sounding.
“It was not organized as a coup, it was a farce.”
Stop with the lies. There are thousands of texts and video of the Proud Boys and other groups literally planning the coup attempt. There’s even tweets from the President of the United States telling people how “wild” itwas going to be and telling the crowd to go to the Capitol and tell Mike Pence to do the right thing, which was, of course illegal.
Trump lost. Any attempt to keep him in office was a coup attempt.
It might have been a dumb one but the next try won’t be so inept. History tells us this.
Shameful. All of it.
“We all know the MOST ICONIC picture of this deadly Jan 6 coup was the guy smiling and waving as he carried away the podium. That was the reality of the day.”
The Confederate flag being dragged through the halls of MY house for the first time in history was the “most iconic” picture of the coup attempt. That said it all, didn’t it?
There needs to be more arrests, including by those who were in the White House.
And if Adam Kinzinger ever runs for office statewide in Illinois, I will be voting for him.
“No one has talked about defunding the police in Chicago for a long time. People are living in the universe from 2 years ago. Time to move on.”
No one has talked about storming the capital for a long time. People are living in the universe from 2 years ago. Time to move on….
“They have made strides with the retail theft task force and the carjacking task force. Many arrests have been made. But there’s still more to do.”
The carjacking task force that Trump put in place where people are actually prosecuted unlike retail theft.
“Hotels were at 80% occupancy last weekend, the highest of the pandemic and there wasn’t even a major festival or concert in town”
That’s still pretty bad given that its Mid-June. Also, room rates are still 10% – 20% lower as well.
“The plans are already being put in place with the Big Lie and trying to win the Secretary of State jobs so they can claim fraud when the Republicans lose again in 2024.”
If Doug Mastriano wins the Pennsylvania Gubernatorial race appointing a SOS to decertify election results remember the Democratic Governors Association and Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate and current State AG of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro pumped more money into ads propping up Mastrino than Mastrino raised his entire campaign.
Apparently that’s what “protecting democracy” looks like.
Even in Illinois, Pritzker and the DGA have been the largest or second largest donors to Darren Bailey’s primary campaign but “Democracy” and stuff.
“And other institutions have lost their authority as well, including the Supreme Court which has become politicized.”
The Supreme Court has always been politicized…… The President nominates and the Senate confirms.
Heck most if not all courts are politicized just look at your primary ballots.
“It might have been a dumb one but the next try won’t be so inept. History tells us this.”
What history tells us this? Also, what’s the military’s position on the 2020 elections and January 6.
“What history tells us this? Also, what’s the military’s position on the 2020 elections and January 6.”
Every single other coup attempt in a democracy. Please educate yourself.
“There needs to be more arrests, including by those who were in the White House.”
Who specifically and for what?
“And if Adam Kinzinger ever runs for office statewide in Illinois, I will be voting for him.”
His takes on what the US response should be in Ukraine have been pretty bad. The amount of media he has done recently and the sharing of the death threat seems self aggrandizing. I imagine most congress creatures have received threats multiple times via phone, letter, etc.
I imagine if Liz Chaney ran for President you would vote for her too? If anyone that’s been in the white house before should be arrested maybe start with her dad?
“Every single other coup attempt in a democracy. Please educate yourself.”
We are a constitutional federal republic not a democracy. Please educate yourself and cite overthrows of constitutional federal republic’s not French revolutions from mob rule i.e. democracy.
“Who specifically and for what?”
Tune into the hearings. It’s all laid out for all to see. Plenty of illegal activity already discussed. More charges are likely coming.
Adam Kinzinger has a moral compass and is protecting our democracy. I don’t agree with him on all of his positions but I don’t need to. He has the guts to call out Jan 6 for what it is: a coup attempt. He’s not running for office so he could do so easier than others. But in a couple of years he may decide to run again (or not).
Until you put yourself out there WP, you have no idea what kind of courage it takes for those who voted to impeach Trump over the coup attempt and for those who are on the committee. You are just an anonymous poster on some random Chicago housing blog talking about how you “know” his life isn’t in danger.
I also said nothing about Liz Cheney. She doesn’t live in Illinois and is unlikely to run for statewide office in Illinois any time soon. And there is no way she is running for President after she called out the cult leader for the traitor he is, is she? That’s a real profile in courage though which, again, no one on this blog will ever be put in the same position to make those choices.
Last I looked, in America no one cares who your “father” was. We got rid of the royals and aristocracy. I don’t care about Liz Cheney’s father.
“We are a constitutional federal republic not a democracy. Please educate yourself and cite overthrows of constitutional federal republic’s not French revolutions from mob rule i.e. democracy.”
Stop with the semantics.
This was the first attempt. They WILL try again. Every specialist who has studied how democracies end have given dozens of examples. There are literally crazy MAGAs who gather in Dallas every few months because JFK Jr is going to appear and be Trump’s next Vice President.
Even Trump himself is still running on the Big Lie. Will be interested to see what happens when he and Pence are in the same debates though.
Our democracy is in grave danger. There are a few true patriots in the Republican party, but not enough.
“Plenty of illegal activity already discussed. More charges are likely coming.”
Merrick Garland and the AG’s office haven’t seen any of this “evidence”? Sure….
“Adam Kinzinger has a moral compass and is protecting our democracy. I don’t agree with him on all of his positions but I don’t need to. He has the guts to call out Jan 6 for what it is: a coup attempt.”
Sounds like Biden and we are paying nearly $7 a gallon in the city with double digit food, car, and home price inflation. Oh and CPS’ budget asked for a 9%+ property tax increase…. People care more about food and shelter than they do coups or democracy see Arab Spring circa 2010.
“you have no idea what kind of courage it takes for those who voted to impeach Trump over the coup attempt and for those who are on the committee”
I never said it didn’t take courage to do that. Plenty of people have courage doesn’t mean I would vote for them to run a city or state government.
“talking about how you “know” his life isn’t in danger.”
He’s in Congress. You know how much security he and his family gets and is currently getting? Certainly gets more than me or you.
“And there is no way she is running for President after she called out the cult leader for the traitor he is, is she?”
NY Times opinionists certainly shill for her to run. She is currently courting the left in Wyoming to make it through the primary. She will probably end up at a defense contractor with a cushy gig spreading democracy with rainbow colored bombs and bullets.
“Merrick Garland and the AG’s office haven’t seen any of this “evidence”? Sure….”
Yep. Investigation has been ongoing for months now.
Georgia election interference is before a grand jury as well. That was tied into the coup attempt because when they failed to get Georgia to commit crimes they moved to throwing out the electors. Only Pence wouldn’t play along. So instead, if they killed him or disrupted him from finishing the certification then they would still stand a chance.
Shameful.
“NY Times opinionists certainly shill for her to run. She is currently courting the left in Wyoming to make it through the primary. She will probably end up at a defense contractor with a cushy gig spreading democracy with rainbow colored bombs and bullets.”
No they don’t. No one in the political sphere thinks she can, or will, run for president. She’s having a hard enough time in her home state, right? Come on.
“He’s in Congress. You know how much security he and his family gets and is currently getting? Certainly gets more than me or you.”
No they don’t. Once the crazies started threatening AOC, they changed the rules to allow Congressmen to pay for their own security out of their office budgets or contributions. I don’t remember which it was.
Again, you are sitting behind an anonymous handle on a blog talking about how their lives aren’t in danger. Shameful. Go watch the testimony about those who were targeted in Georgia simply because they were election poll workers. Their lives were threatened, homes broken into and ruined.
The Congressman has a family. What he is doing takes tremendous political courage. You are a fool to say otherwise.
“People care more about food and shelter than they do coups or democracy see Arab Spring circa 2010.”
Yet, 20 million people have tuned into the live hearings. Go figure.
Inflation will come down. The Fed will see to that. And Biden has NOTHING to do with the coup.
“We are a constitutional federal republic not a democracy.”
You strike me as someone who is smarter and better educated than to repeat that tired statement. The U.S. is a liberal democracy organized as a constitutional republic (or at least it has been; it is on the verge of being neither a liberal democracy in principle nor a constitutional republic in legal structure).
“Also, what’s the military’s position on the 2020 elections and January 6.”
These three retired generals have some thoughts on the matter:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/17/eaton-taguba-anderson-generals-military/
“Last I looked, in America no one cares who your “father” was.”
Hmmm, is the Chicago City Council (or the Illinois legislature) not in America?
The regular appointment of family members to replace elected officials stepping down is a total disgrace.
“the largest or second largest donors to Darren Bailey’s primary campaign”
Uh, no. Running attack ads that have the effect of making Bailey appealing to certain R primary voters is not being a donor to the campaign.
From the latest report, #1 donor is Uihlein. Bailey himself is #2, Alex Melvin #3, Restore Illinois PAC #4, and Jean Bailey #5.
Entire box of wine was apparently consumed this afternoon.
“Uh, no. Running attack ads that have the effect of making Bailey appealing to certain R primary voters is not being a donor to the campaign.”
Pritzker and the DGA have run $34 million+ in pro-Bailey and anti-Irvin ads while claiming to care about “democracy” and that “democracy” is on the ballot and our “democracy” is at stake.
Uihlein has donated around $10 million to Bailey. I’m not sure if Bailey has even raised $30 million in total donations.
The left talks out of both sides of their mouths and has absolutely no vision or plan. Also, I thought they cared about diversity as well but the rich white male with the silver spoon is purposely holding down the black male again. Not very equitable by Pritzker.
““Did somebody say they were comparable?”
You imply the hell out of it Gary–
you say “i hate the extremes of both sides” and then call out the Green New Deal as the great threat to the nation.”
So you seem to be saying that everything you hate must be equally bad. That makes no sense. How many different things do you hate and are they all “comparable”?
“Pritzker and the DGA have run $34 million+ in pro-Bailey and anti-Irvin ads”
You wrote:
“the largest or second largest donors to Darren Bailey’s primary campaign”
which is demonstrably false, and then you moved the goalposts.
I know that it’s totally common here, but c’mon.
“So you seem to be saying that everything you hate must be equally bad. That makes no sense. How many different things do you hate and are they all “comparable”?”
This implies that you may hate the green new deal more than you hate the threat of secession or political violence.
Or that disagreement over policy is sufficient to warrant threats or secession or violence.
Oh noes, the democrats won’t come out and quash the GND publicly, they just let it stagnate in committee because it will never pass. My pearls!
But it’s totally fine that the Rs sit silently while their largest state party talks about secession as a policy.
“This implies that you may hate the green new deal more than you hate the threat of secession or political violence.
Or that disagreement over policy is sufficient to warrant threats or secession or violence.”
How the hell do you get that from what I’ve written in black and white? Total non-sequitur.
“How the hell do you get that from what I’ve written in black and white?”
You assert that you have similar hate for ‘both sides’, yet you minimize the right wing (“How many people on the right really want … Most of the ones I know”), and assert that the “leaders” of the “radical left” (which you also identify as Antifa) are Bernie and AOC. How many people on the left do you actually know, and are they actually seeking anarcho-syndicalism, or do they “just want” “normal things” like your friends on the right?
I really think you’re smarter than that, Gary, so I don’t understand how you do not see the false equivalence.
Unless you think that Trump, etc., are the “leaders” of the “radical right”, and own all of the radical right’s bullshit. But I don’t think I’ve seen you say that.
“which is demonstrably false, and then you moved the goalposts.
I know that it’s totally common here, but c’mon.”
It’s not false. The purpose of the spending is the same as a donation. I guess that’s difficult for you to understand.
“You assert that you have similar hate for ‘both sides’”
Never said it was similar. Go back and reread it.
“yet you minimize the right wing (“How many people on the right really want”
That’s not minimizing their extremism. It’s minimizing their numbers.
… Most of the ones I know”), and assert that the “leaders” of the “radical left” (which you also identify as Antifa) are Bernie and AOC”
I’m not even sure that Antifa has a “leader”. They are certainly more extreme than Bernie and AOC. Bernie and AOC are well identified leaders of the far left but not as far left as Antifa.
“How many people on the left do you actually know, and are they actually seeking anarcho-syndicalism, or do they “just want” “normal things” like your friends on the right?”
The vast majority of the people I know are on the left. I’ve been unfriended by most of the extreme right and extreme left but since 2016 moreso by people on the extreme right. What both of these groups who have unfriended me have in common is that they don’t like being confronted by facts.
Most of my friends on the right do not want “normal things” in my opinion. My friends on the left want utopia and they think the government can deliver it. In fact, the people on the right expect the government to also deliver what they want.
“Stop saying it was a “coup” or “insurrection”, because it wasn’t. Only a conspiracy theory nutcase would claim it was or believe this kangaroo 100% biased and bigoted committee.”
Sure looked like a coup to me from all the video footage I saw. Gallows, looking for Pence and Pelosi to do what with? What was their stated objective? Why did they go into the chamber?
Kangaroo court? What facts do you disagree with?
“Everyone knows that normal Americans who wandered into the Capitol”
Did you see the same videos I did? Didn’t look like wandering to me.
“It’s so far left”
You could just as easily say it’s so far right. Seriously. 1/3 of the country thinks Trump won. Texas creates a crazy ass Republican platform. We can’t restrict 18 year olds from buying AR-15s. The right creates their own sets of facts and is proud of it. Right wing politicians campaign and get elected while promising to overthrow their own state elections. And the Republican politicians swear more allegiance to Trump than to the country.
And if you want to discuss obesity…Trump clearly weighs a lot more than Biden.
Oh…and I left out schools banning books at the behest of right wing zealots.
yeah, the country is so far left.
“We can’t restrict 18 year olds from buying AR-15s.”
You going to restrict 18 year olds from signing up for the military too?
“You going to restrict 18 year olds from signing up for the military too?”
Please explain what one has to do with the other.
“The purpose of the spending is the same as a donation.”
No it’s not. A donation can be used by the campaign in the primary and the general.
Would you maintain that the exact same ad after Bailey is the nominee would still be the same as a donation? Must be, right?
“Most of my friends on the right do not want “normal things” in my opinion.”
Honestly not sure if the ‘not’ was intended.
If intended, your view is that “be able to buy an AR=15, pay low taxes, and ban the teaching of certain topics in schools” are NOT ‘normal things’, as least as to 2 of the 3? (almost everyone would like to pay low taxes, just some are willing to pay more tax if certain things are provided by the government–I’d like lower taxes, but I’m ok with higher taxes that actually improve X, Y or Z government activity)
“expect the government to also deliver what they want.”
Yeah, that’s 90% of the country. And the balance are the 12 true libertarians, the black helicopter crew (both left and right) and a lot of nihilists.
And over half want the government to do something that actively harms the life, liberty or pursuit of happyness of at least 10% of the rest of the country.
“Never said it [hate for both sides] was similar.”
Fair enough–your comments back to anonny seem to indicate that you have quite a bit more distaste for the “extreme” left than the “extreme” right.
“Honestly not sure if the ‘not’ was intended.”
It was.
“Fair enough–your comments back to anonny seem to indicate that you have quite a bit more distaste for the “extreme” left than the “extreme” right.”
Not true. First and foremost I want election results to be respected and I want health policy set by medical professionals.
“ I want health policy set by medical professionals.”
Bad idea
Without anyone looking at cost/benefit it would be a disaster.
“Without anyone looking at cost/benefit it would be a disaster.”
JU supports death panels!!
“Not true.”
I may have been narrowly bouncing off the single comment:
http://cribchatter.com/?p=28563#comment-1229177
but that is what I was referring to throughout.
“JU supports death panels!!”
reductio ad absurdum
“reductio ad absurdum”
Lack of cost/benefit analysis drives health care costs through the roof!
“Estimates of the percentage of Medicare costs that arise from patients in the last year of life differ, ranging from 13% to 25%”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6610551/
We might be able to cut Medicare costs by 25% by using a cost/benefit analysis–that’s $250 BILLION. And that doesn’t even address non-Medicare spending!!
“Without anyone looking at cost/benefit it would be a disaster.”
Obviously. I was referring to vaccines and mask usage and medical treatments like remdesivir vs. hydroxychloroquine.
“Obviously.”
Gary, too!
Death Panels for everyone!
“Lack of cost/benefit analysis drives health care costs through the roof!”
Referring to death panels
However there should be a cost benefit analysis on procedures that dont improve the patients quality of life. There should also be incentives not to be a 400lb whale (Other than not wanting to be a whale)
I’m familiar with multiple end of life scenarios. In the case of both of my parents the hospital staff needed a decision. It was brilliant the way they told us what the decision should be without telling us what the decision should be. We could have prolonged their lives for days at no personal cost but at great cost to the system. There was no point in doing that.
In another case a pointless expensive brain surgery was ordered at no personal cost to the decision maker but at great cost to Medicare. The patient died within a couple of days as expected.
I don’t know how you solve these problems except with education of families and hospital staff. Not sure you want these decisions made by some bureaucrat who just transferred over from the DMV.
You can staff the death panels with doctors and bean counters. It’s just a question of who gets the ‘odd’ vote on the close cases.