Market Conditions: May 2021 Was Hottest in 13 Years as Condo Sales Jumped
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the May sales report.
Yes, the market is still red hot, with the highest number of May sales since 2008.
Just a reminder: year-over-year comparisons will be skewed due to the plunge in sales in May 2020. Last year, sales crashed 43.6% compared to May 2019 due to the coronavirus lock down.
In the city of Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in May 2021 totaled 3,358 homes sold, up 97.4 percent from May 2020 sales of 1,701 homes.
The median price of a home in Chicago in May 2021 was $351,000, up 12.1 percent compared to May 2020 when it was $313,000.
May Sales:
- May 2008: 2119 sales
- May 2009: 1557 sales
- May 2010: 2057 sales
- May 2011: 1705 sales
- May 2012: 2037 sales
- May 2013: 2834 sales
- May 2014: 2453 sales
- May 2015: 2750 sales
- May 2016: 2980 sales
- May 2017: 3046 sales
- May 2018: 3047 sales
- May 2019: 2952 sales
- May 2020: 1701 sales
- May 2021: 3358 sales
Median Price Data:
- May 2008: $319,500
- May 2009: $225,000
- May 2010: $230,000
- May 2011: $190,000
- May 2012: $203,000
- May 2013: $234,000
- May 2014: $269,250
- May 2015: $281,000
- May 2016: $290,750
- May 2017: $305,600
- May 2018: $305,000
- May 2019: $315,000
- May 2020: $313,000
- May 2021: $351,000
“The data from May shows the stark contrast of where we were last year, when the COVID-19 stay-at-home order truly started to impact the Chicago real estate market, compared to this year as the city slowly opened up, and the changes are astounding, with a 97.4 percent increase in closed sales,” said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and vice president of brokerage services at Coldwell Banker Realty.
“We’re currently seeing all types of properties, from single-family to condos, moving swiftly off the market. Buyers are prepared to move quickly on their dream homes, and those who are considering making a change should call their REALTOR® to begin the selling process.”
Mortgage rates remain low.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 2.95% in May from 3.06% in April. It was also down from May 2020 when it averaged 3.23%.
Inventory also remains near record lows.
Statewide, inventory dropped 45.7% to 25,426 from 46,791 last year.
In Chicago, inventory dropped 6% to 7,808 from 8,308 last year.
“This year’s moving season has started out bright for sellers with their homes being purchased at top prices,” says Sue Miller, President of Illinois REALTORS® and designated managing broker of Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group in McHenry. “But the future remains overcast for those trying to purchase their dream home due to the continued record low inventory of available housing of all types.”
Single family home median sales price jumped 36.5% year-over-year, whereas condo median price gained just 0.4%.
But condos continued to drive the increase in sales with sales up 143.7% year-over-year to 2,352 sales. Single family home sales rose 36.7% year-over-year to 1,006 sales.
“The market continues to exhibit positive growth in sales and prices,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, emeritus director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. “However, affordability is again becoming a challenge as the National Association of REALTORS® noted that more than 50 percent of recent sales were made with a down payment of 20 percent or more, making it difficult for first-time buyers to offer competitive bids.”
May was hot, but is the market starting to cool in June due to higher prices and lack of inventory?
Or will this hot market continue all summer long?
Hot market, tightening inventory meant faster sales, higher prices in May [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, June 22, 2021]
Numbers are skewed by pent up demand.
I’d like to see the data on the number of people leaving the city. After COVID, the riots, the newly accepted work from home model, horrible leadership and the recent crime sprees — numbers have to be significant.
The number isn’t shockingly high to me considering the low number of sales last May. I would have expected even more sales this May, but for low inventory.
I see very few homes selling for a large profit. Most people seem to be breaking even. My friend who has been looking in the Seattle suburbs and I have been comparing notes and she is seeing houses selling for 25% more than they did even 2 years ago and the homes under $500,000 are immediately going under contract with multiple offers.
How are condo prices only up 0.4% when interest rates for 30 year loan are 2.95% and sales are up 143% year over year?
“How are condo prices only up 0.4% when interest rates for 30 year loan are 2.95% and sales are up 143% year over year?”
inflation is up 5% since last may as well…
“How are condo prices only up 0.4% when interest rates for 30 year loan are 2.95% and sales are up 143% year over year?”
The number is a reflection of whats on the market/sold MtoM.
Its about as meaningful as Sabrina’s comments
should be YoY, not MtoM
“year-over-year comparisons will be skewed due to the plunge in sales in May 2020”
Taking a two year average should remove the “skewed comparison”. That average is 2,529 sales which is below the 5 year average between 2015 – 2019. It’s something I will continue to do over the coming months.
“Single family home median sales price jumped 36.5% year-over-year, whereas condo median price gained just 0.4%.”
Again, the upper-end of the market is what is selling and what is seeing the most competition. It’s further bolstered by 50% of buyers putting down 20% i.e. these aren’t first time buyers as Sabrina likes to continuously say. The data continues to show this as well as second home purchases have increased substantially over the past year.
“May was hot, but is the market starting to cool in June due to higher prices and lack of inventory?”
Inventory was actually up 7.5% in May compared to April in Chicago per Zillow. Now that the Government has gotten rid of restrictions and vaccination rates locally are high people will feel more comfortable listing their homes over the summer/fall and into next spring.
The fallacy of “higher prices” driven by what Sabrina continues to make claim that Millennials and Gen-Z first time buyers pouring into the market doesn’t seem to hold water when the data cited above states median Condo prices only rising 0.4%.
“That average is 2,529 sales which is below the 5 year average between 2015 – 2019.”
yup.
20+21 = +8.7% over 19+20. Which is more representative of the relative activity level.
A 2-year average doesn’t take away the “skewed” of a pandemic with the economy locked down.
Here’s the 3 month data for spring 2021:
March: 2877
April: 3283
May: 3358
Thanks to G, I have the sales data for March back to 1997. It’s the highest since the housing boom months:
March 2004: 2772
March 2005: 2822
March 2006: 3000
But it’s June that is always the hottest month of the year as buyers go out to look in April and May but don’t close until June.
During the housing boom June looked like this:
June 2004: 3752
June 2005: 3850
June 2006: 3557
June 2007: 3127
But even June of the pre-pandemic years was strong in sales:
June 2017: 3380
June 2018: 3191
June 2019: 2850
And then 2020 saw the plunge as buyers weren’t looking in April and May.
June 2020: 2020
But how do we get to 3500 sales in June of this year with this really low inventory?
We could get to 3500 or 4000 sales in June if only there were more single family homes on the market. And if there were more affordable condos in the neighborhoods. But there are few new buildings, especially high rises, that fall in this category to get us the housing boom levels.
But that’s also what is extraordinary about this level of sales. Condos are red hot without any true building- except on the luxury side which is not what would be a big driver of quantity.
There aren’t any high rise buildings with new $400,000 or even $500,000 2/2 condos which would result in several hundred condos closing in a month.
And yet we’re still at housing boom level pace of sales.
Extraordinary.
The June and July reports should tell the tale of the buyers coming in for “deals” downtown as Crain’s reported that downtown condo inventory has dropped to 12 months from 30 months last year.
Those closings will be reflected moving forward.
Inventory needs to drop downtown to get price appreciation there. There already is plenty of it in the neighborhoods.
The problem with downtown is that there are now simply too many luxury condos on the market. There are hundreds in the St Regis, The Tribune, and One Bennett Park alone.
Thank goodness the stock market remains at record highs so the luxury market is healthy. But it’s not hot because there’s too much inventory. Buyers have too many options.
“Inventory was actually up 7.5% in May compared to April in Chicago per Zillow.”
I don’t use Zillow data.
Given that I’ve always used IAR and CAR data on this blog, that is the “metric” we’re going to continue to use. As Gary has pointed out, “inventory” is dependent on the day you decide to measure it so I’m staying with the same source.
According to IAR, Chicago inventory rose to 7808 from 7690 in April.
I would expect inventory to rise in the spring as that’s when most sellers are listing.
I hope Gary chimes in here to tell us what single family home inventory looks like city wide. It was under 2 months the last few months.
Good luck buying a SFH. There aren’t any to buy in many neighborhoods.
“How are condo prices only up 0.4% when interest rates for 30 year loan are 2.95% and sales are up 143% year over year?”
Downtown condo prices have fallen. As Crain’s has written, some people are getting them at 10% discounts.
As we’ve seen on this blog, some are back to 2005-2007 prices. Some even back to 2000 prices.
And the downtown condo market is the largest condo market in the city.
Prices on the rise in the outer neighborhoods though.
“I see very few homes selling for a large profit. Most people seem to be breaking even. My friend who has been looking in the Seattle suburbs and I have been comparing notes and she is seeing houses selling for 25% more than they did even 2 years ago and the homes under $500,000 are immediately going under contract with multiple offers.”
Why are you comparing the Seattle suburbs to the city of Chicago Jenny?
At least compare Oak Park or Park Ridge with the Seattle suburbs, right? Or Hinsdale, DG, Lisle, Naperville?
All of them are red hot.
I know someone about to list a house in Oak Park. Word has gotten out and several real estate agents have already indicated they have a buyer for it. When they list, a bidding war will be inevitable. Inventory is low in Oak Park, especially in the prime elementary school districts.
They will make considerable money even though they bought just 5 years ago.
Will it be 25%?
I don’t know. Probably not.
But Chicagoland has under performed the last 13 years so it’s nice to see prices on the rise here. Finally. It’s nice to see a hot housing market.
“I’d like to see the data on the number of people leaving the city. After COVID, the riots, the newly accepted work from home model, horrible leadership and the recent crime sprees — numbers have to be significant.”
That’s been well documented KK. All you have to do is look at the apartment vacancy rate. Lowest in 20+ years last year.
But the vacancy rate has reversed. The developers are building again. And hot housing sales tell you that buyers are not avoiding the city. If they were, the Chicago sales wouldn’t be at 13 year highs.
The “cities are doomed” story line was wrong.
“Again, the upper-end of the market is what is selling and what is seeing the most competition.”
You are so wrong on this WP, I don’t even know where to begin. And yet you keep repeating that this market is driven by the luxury market.
It isn’t.
Luxury is doing okay because the stock market is at record highs. They are always correlated. But they’ve over built on the luxury end. There are too many high rises with new product. How many buyers of $5 million condos do they think there are? It will take 5 to 10 years to clear all that inventory, in a good economy.
But the low end is red hot. You have a 2/2 under $400,000? It will sell within a week in Lakeview, LP, Logan Square, Bucktown etc.
Condos are better deals than the luxury rentals now. You get more space for your money. And with mortgage rates still low, it makes more sense for many.
“And yet you keep repeating that this market is driven by the luxury market.”
And yet you keep repeating nonsense…..
“High-end home sales jumped 26% compared to a 14.8% increase in mid-priced home purchases and a 17.8% gain in affordable home purchases. An abundance of high-end homes hitting the market is helping this segment flourish, according to the report.”
“The prices of high-end homes also grew faster than the prices of affordable and mid-priced homes in that time period. High-end home prices hit a new record, rising 14.3% year over year compared to a record 12.4% increase in the prices of mid-priced homes and a 10.2% increase in the price of affordable homes.”
https://chicagoagentmagazine.com/2021/06/07/high-end-home-sales-prices-jump-as-market-flourishes/
“I know someone about to list a house in Oak Park. Word has gotten out and several real estate agents have already indicated they have a buyer for it. When they list, a bidding war will be inevitable.”
I know someone who created their own cryptocurrency. Words gotten out and several credible investors already indicated they want to buy it. The bidding war will be inevitable…..
“They will make considerable money even though they bought just 5 years ago.
Will it be 25%?
I don’t know. Probably not.”
The amount of backflips you try to do on your response to Jenny and then finally you say the quiet part out loud.
5 years of increased holding costs and inflation, and here you are admitting maybe they break even. But somehow talking yourself into “they are going to make considerable amount of money”. Shill talk.
“But Chicagoland has under performed the last 13 years”
Oh this would include the suburbs that you are telling Jenny to compare to. One year of better housing numbers in Chicago suburbs compared to 13 years of misery and the shill wants us to ignore the previous 12.
“As we’ve seen on this blog, some are back to 2005-2007 prices. Some even back to 2000 prices.”
So prices today are at the levels seen ~15 years ago and some are at 21 year lows yet just this week on a prior post you said all of the deals would be gone in 12 months.
So there will be decades of price appreciation in the condo market within 12 months…… when there was a 0.4% increase over the prior 12? Yeah ok…..
[Oak Park]
So, here’s a nice looking place, in a nice location w/in OP:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Park/547-Linden-Ave-60302/home/13273591
Asking is 21 bps/annum *below* CPI for the 20.5 year (so far) ownership. And they redid/refreshed the kitchen and the baths.
[OP, cont’d]
That’s too expensive, you say?
How about this one, asking CPI minus ~60 bps, after 7 years:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Park/1141-Columbian-Ave-60302/home/13275316
Or step down to a starter-type place:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Oak-Park/811-N-Lombard-Ave-60302/home/13277383
is asking ~ 30 bp/yr less than CPI over a 19 year own.
As an OP resident, Oak Park is hot but properties are just trading for what they probably would have sold for 10 – 15 years ago. As anon points out, inflation adjusted the are losing money. Of course, tax bills are up probably 2.5xs during that period….
People looking to move to Oak Park are literally searching for listings on local OP facebook group. Properties going under contract very quick.
Chicago version of a hot market is just being able to cover transaction costs and get your down payment back…
Affordable housing continues to do well all over Chicago metro but it’s still peanuts compared to many cities. Austin is probably the most obnoxious market of all time right now.
“Condos are better deals than the luxury rentals now. You get more space for your money. And with mortgage rates still low, it makes more sense for many.”
This is such a crock
If you exclude the down payment it “might” be a wash
Add in sales losses when time to move, taxes, fees and specials and the “deal” as you call is short lived.
Maybe you meant its a deal for the shills?
There’s a Mishtalk article which cites the Case Shiller figures regarding Chicago and the other 9 largest cities in the US. It shows home prices are currently on the upswing but that Chicago home prices are down 7% from March 2007 and besides Las Vegas all other cities are up – Denver +85%, Boston +45%… Even New York is +6%. Nationally it is +32%. Does that mean Chicago is a good buy moving forward or will it continue to trail the average?
“Does that mean Chicago is a good buy moving forward or will it continue to trail the average?”
If I were a betting man, that trend has been going on long enough I don’t expect it to reverse, especially with all the crazy talk out there from the left wing leadership of the city that will only make owning real estate that much less desirable going forward.
“Does that mean Chicago is a good buy moving forward or will it continue to trail the average?”
High property taxes and no constraint on building means it will likely continue to trail the average.
But no one could foresee everyone wanting to move to Montana in 2020 either.
“Add in sales losses when time to move, taxes, fees and specials and the “deal” as you call is short lived.”
Huh?
Thousands of buyers are selling and making money just fine in the city of Chicago in 2021.
As those who have been on this blog a long time know, I’m an advocate of the NYTimes rent v own calculator (do they still have it?) which allows you to calculate how long you need to live in one versus the other, for it to be more cost effective.
No one is advocating that if you are going to stay somewhere 1 to 2 years that you should be buying a property. Anywhere. There ARE transaction costs that add up.
But for those who are looking to live there for the longer haul, buying may make more sense.
Don’t listen to the bears on this blog who live in other states or cities and have no idea what your own situation is. Do your own evaluation.
But we are getting close to the point where some people will be looking at a rental price of $2800 a month for a 700 square foot 1 bedroom or a mortgage payment, with taxes and HOAs, of the same for 900 or 1000 square feet and think to themselves, “I want the space. I’m going to buy it.” And yes, there is the cost of the down payment too.
“As an OP resident, Oak Park is hot but properties are just trading for what they probably would have sold for 10 – 15 years ago.”
Well- 15 years ago was the housing bubble. Would I be surprised to see homes back at that level?
No. That’s what happens in bubbles. It takes years to get back to the top again. Took 13 years in stocks, by the way.
But if you bought after the bubble, as my friend did, they are going to do just fine.
Yeah, if property taxes weren’t rising so quickly, they would be doing even better. But it is what it is. Oak Park is trying to get more tax revenue in there with the build-up in retail/restaurants in its downtown but it’s never going to be Oak Brook.
“So prices today are at the levels seen ~15 years ago and some are at 21 year lows yet just this week on a prior post you said all of the deals would be gone in 12 months.”
Whut?
There is 12 months worth of inventory. That is slowly being absorbed because these are deals. The city has reopened. The tourists are back. The Baby Boomers in the suburbs are now in the best position of their lives to sell their homes because the suburban market, for the first time in 15 years, is actually hot. They can sell the big family home and move downtown, as was their pre-pandemic plan.
And now they’re getting a “deal” on the condo downtown.
Yes, WP, Chicago remains a desirable city.
Someone is buying those $2 to $3 million condos in the St Regis that are closing every week (new building).
Someone just bought that $4 million Lincoln Park condo.
Someone is buying that $3 million Lincoln Park house.
So sorry bears. You can’t keep a good city down.
Today, a California company just signed a full floor lease in Fulton Market and will be hiring 100 engineers and sales people this year with another 50 next year.
You are fighting a losing battle.
Why’d they choose Chicago?
“The Fulton Market office will be near Google’s Chicago hub. Flock said it was drawn to Chicago because of the area’s traditional role in trucking, and because it can locate near other tech employers.”
https://chicago.suntimes.com/business/2021/6/23/22547022/flock-freight-office-fulton-market-150-jobs-tech-trucking-truckloads-routes
“I know someone who created their own cryptocurrency. Words gotten out and several credible investors already indicated they want to buy it. The bidding war will be inevitable…..”
You just look dumber every day WP.
There are bidding wars EVERYWHERE on single family homes. To say that it’s not going to happen in Oak Park is just laughable. Truly. It’s THAT hot. You put it in a private listing. There will be 20 people interested.
Duh!
I’m so tired of having to explain the housing market to you. Get out there. Go to an open house. Talk to the realtors. Look at your precious Zillow and see how quickly the listings go under contract (within days.)
It’s been like this all spring.
Looks like it’s continuing into the summer. But at some point, the lack of inventory is really going to hit the market hard. I would have thought it would happen by now. You can’t sell what isn’t on the market.
“High-end home sales jumped 26% compared to a 14.8% increase in mid-priced home purchases and a 17.8% gain in affordable home purchases. An abundance of high-end homes hitting the market is helping this segment flourish, according to the report.”
This is nationwide data. All real estate is LOCAL. Duh!
If this wasn’t true, then I would be posting about how real estate prices are up 25% because nationwide they are but wait- in Chicago they aren’t. Duh.
I just can’t with you WP.
Chicago’s market is NOT being fueled by the luxury market. But I agree that it is healthy, thank goodness, in Chicago because the stock market is at record highs. But there’s simply too much inventory at the luxury level. Prices have declined in many buildings so buyers can get some deals because there’s too much supply.
In Chicago, the strong sales are being driven by the under $1 million buyers, especially entry-level buyers.
Stop using national data to talk about Chicago. It’s not the same market. We are not San Francisco or Los Angeles on pricing. (thank goodness)
“Thousands of buyers are selling and making money just fine in the city of Chicago in 2021.
Don’t listen to the bears on this blog who live in other states or cities and have no idea what your own situation is. Do your own evaluation.”
——————————-
Pay no attention to that man (right, Joe?) behind the curtain!
“Making money” on a nominal basis is far, far, different from making it on a “real” basis.
Talking about timing in the market to support the conclusion that Chicago is a good market is the mark of a true shill.
Another mark of the true shill is touting that Bucktown goes South of Armitage.
“Huh?
Thousands of buyers are selling and making money just fine in the city of Chicago in 2021.”
Not what we were talking about dummy
“As those who have been on this blog a long time know, I’m an advocate of the NYTimes rent v own calculator (do they still have it?) which allows you to calculate how long you need to live in one versus the other, for it to be more cost effective.}
You advocate something you don’t know is even around? What does this have to do anything?
“No one is advocating that if you are going to stay somewhere 1 to 2 years that you should be buying a property. Anywhere. There ARE transaction costs that add up.”
non sequitur
“But for those who are looking to live there for the longer haul, buying may make more sense.
Don’t listen to the bears on this blog who live in other states or cities and have no idea what your own situation is. Do your own evaluation.“
Agree but you stated “Better Deal”
“But we are getting close to the point where some people will be looking at a rental price of $2800 a month for a 700 square foot 1 bedroom or a mortgage payment, with taxes and HOAs, of the same for 900 or 1000 square feet and think to themselves, “I want the space. I’m going to buy it.” And yes, there is the cost of the down payment too.”
Links? Since you are a Chicago & RE expert should be easy…
Don’t day drink and post
“ But no one could foresee everyone wanting to move to Montana in 2020 either.”
People have been moving out to Bozeman for a decade
“People have been moving out to Bozeman for a decade”
Thousands all within 3 months where they run out of houses and push up prices by 30%?
Come on JohnnyU. Quit being stupid.
The pandemic dramatically changed where people moved.
“Links? Since you are a Chicago & RE expert should be easy…”
All of downtown is cheaper to buy than to rent in those luxury rentals. None of them are building anything bigger than 700 square foot 1-bedrooms. 2/2s around 1000 to 1100 square feet (if you’re lucky.)
Much more expensive than buying and likely will get even more so. Which is great news for condo owners.
Once again I ask: I wonder when some of these luxury apartment buildings will be turned into condos? That’s always the next part of the cycle.
“Pay no attention to that man (right, Joe?) behind the curtain!”
Once again, just tells you how clueless you all are that you STILL think I’m the one who shall not be named.
Lol.
And yeah- I’m going to shill for Chicago real estate in what is the best housing market in the city in about 15 years.
Hooray!
Finally: Chicago real estate prices are on the increase. Owners CAN make money.
Hooray!
I was going to crib on this unit. But, alas, under contract within 5 days.
But it’s not hot out there. Not at all.
Listed at $599,000
Bought it in 2018 for $540,000
https://ssl.cdn-redfin.com/photo/68/bigphoto/131/11125131_2.jpg
“The pandemic dramatically changed where people moved.”
Out west, at least, what it did was push conservatives out of blue areas and into red areas. California, Oregon & Washington are deep blue states with a combined population of over 50,000,000 people. It doesn’t take very many Californians moving east, to Idaho, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Utah and Arizona, with a combined population of about 14,000,000 people, to severely disrupt the local housing markets. The equity locusts from the coasts, regardless of their political persuasion, are deeply despised because of the effect they’ve had on local housing prices. There certainly is some movement out of cities (and especially Chicago) but from what I’ve seen it’s conservatives moving from blue states to red states and making them even redder. It’s not some exodus like Moses fleeing Egypt but it’s a noticeable political migration.
“There certainly is some movement out of cities (and especially Chicago) but from what I’ve seen it’s conservatives moving from blue states to red states and making them even redder.”
In St George, Utah, I agree. It’s conservatives looking to move to a conservative location.
But those leaving the Bay Area, LA, San Diego in the last year are likely mainly moving to the larger cities like Boise, Denver, Bozeman. The cities were already blue. They will just get bluer.
“In St George, Utah, I agree. It’s conservatives looking to move to a conservative location. ”
It’s more than that, deep red Provo Utah is up 30% in one year. I recently spoke to an Idahoan who told me *all* of his new neighborhoods were conservative Californians fleeing a failed state.
I don’t know for certain, but I don’t imagine that liberal Bay Area residents are fleeing to Boise or Bozeman.
“Thousands all within 3 months where they run out of houses and push up prices by 30%?
Come on JohnnyU. Quit being stupid.
The pandemic dramatically changed where people moved.”
We’ll just chalk this up as another in a long list of you not knowing wtf you’re talking about.
And they didn’t run out of houses
It’s funny how when you’re wrong you resort to flat out lies
“ “Links? Since you are a Chicago & RE expert should be easy…”
All of downtown is cheaper to buy than to rent in those luxury rentals. None of them are building anything bigger than 700 square foot 1-bedrooms. 2/2s around 1000 to 1100 square feet (if you’re lucky.)
Much more expensive than buying and likely will get even more so. Which is great news for condo owners.“
So no links? Why should any one trust you – a lying shill?
“Once again I ask: I wonder when
some of these luxury apartment buildings will be turned into condos? That’s always the next part of the cycle.””
As soon as there are other income producing investments that are more attractive. (for non-REITs)
“ I don’t know for certain, but I don’t imagine that liberal Bay Area residents are fleeing to Boise or Bozeman.”
Bozeman has seen a huge (for its size) influx from CA over the past decade and not all conservatives.
“ But those leaving the Bay Area, LA, San Diego in the last year are likely mainly moving to the larger cities like Boise, Denver, Bozeman. The cities were already blue. They will just get bluer.”
Please shut the fuck up about Bozeman
It’s not a larger city, it’s not even 50k
It was a cowboy town w/ a University before the CA influx hence why it’s now blue, not CA retarded blue but blue. The CA influx didn’t start last year
I’ve never seen someone so dumb be so sure of themselves
New data suggests that home sales in Chicago are growing faster than the larger metropolitan area.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/crains-daily-gist/are-homebuyers-really-leaving-city-suburbs-crains-daily-gist-podcast
“As those who have been on this blog a long time know, I’m an advocate of the NYTimes rent v own calculator (do they still have it?) which allows you to calculate how long you need to live in one versus the other, for it to be more cost effective.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHC#0
Raw data YoY – Lowest its been in the last 5 years
Quite a few folks from the Bay Area are moving into my area or the greater Tahoe region at least, Incline Village prices are insane right now 🙁 (recently had a coworker and his staff transfer here, big time producer)
since you know, we’re the closest major city to them thats not in California
Prices here have continued to rise because of a variety of factors that began way before the pandemic. Houses like this one https://www.redfin.com/NV/Reno/3900-Skyline-Blvd-89509/home/60268415 that sold just 7 years ago for 250k are on the market for 600k now! Glad I bought just 2 years ago, when I thought I was overpaying then. I feel bad for first time home buyers for sure.
I get redfin reports of all my prior Chicago properties I owned for some reason and they are both -3%y/y vs the +14%y/y on my current home
Since neither Sabrina nor JU appear to have access to tehgoogs:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html
Yes, it still exists.
“conservative Californians fleeing a failed state”
A typical 21st century “California conservative” is a social liberal, moderate anti-taxer who is still way to the left of the typical Idahoan.
“All of downtown is cheaper to buy than to rent in those luxury rentals. None of them are building anything bigger than 700 square foot 1-bedrooms. 2/2s around 1000 to 1100 square feet (if you’re lucky.)”
Wolf Point
2/2 units up to 1430sf
1/1 units up to 831sf
Do you even live in Chicago?
“Wolf Point
2/2 units up to 1430sf
1/1 units up to 831sf”
And that–rightly–ignore the “penthouse” 2/2s.
TBF, the 1s are *mostly* around 700-750. But also very few under 700.
And the 2s are *mostly* 1100-1250.
Speaking of Wolf Point: Some good pix of how far south of WPW the Salesforce Tower is can be found here:
https://chicagoyimby.com/2021/05/salesforce-tower-approaches-halfway-mark-in-river-north.html
The changes in demographics/politics/socio-economics in the west are, if nothing else, nuanced, for lack of a better term. The one constant, however, has been hostility towards Californian transplants, at least since I first moved to the west in 89. The loudest hostility tends to be from conservatives, but there’s plenty from liberals, typically about traffic or overdevelopment, and leftists, about housing costs. The funny part is that, for the most part, most Californian transplants (especially the ones that trigger the most hostility) aren’t native Californians, but instead were from the northeast or midwest and moved to CA during or after college. And, for the most part, those hostile to Californians aren’t themselves natives of CO, OR, ID, MT, etc.
“Owners CAN make money. Hooray!”
This is the root cause of the problems. Housing never was and never will be a way to “make money”. It’s a comodity item, a store of value. You take out what you put in. The house’s price is a derivative of land value. Sometimes land becomes more valuable, sometimes less. Always be suspect of massive increases in land value and any deviation from historical rates of inflation. It always indicates a bubble. Some bubbles may last decades, like the current one, but they are bubbles. All in all I’d say Chicago is pretty conservative since 2008 and that’s a great thing. The last thing we need to do is overindebt everyone again like they are doing on the west coast. The popping of that bubble will be epic. My guess is it will be a combination of 2008 type underwater homeowners coupled with massive inflation (devaluation of dollar) to mask the decline. Your average American Ken and Karen think they are real estate investors because they qualified for a mortgage and bought a shit shack, painted it and bought some new cabinets and fixtures. They are deluded, just the way Wall Street wants them to be. You want to make money in Real Estate then become a developer or builder and improve land. Otherwise your just a speculator or bag holder, a muppet in the terminology of Goldman Sachs, to be fleeced.
“A typical 21st century “California conservative” is a social liberal, moderate anti-taxer who is still way to the left of the typical Idahoan.”
I think that’s what they want you to believe, but I have a decent number of conservative relatives in CA, and not a single one is a socially liberal moderate anti-taxer way to the left of the typical Idahoan. CA and ID conservatives all read the same websites, watch the same national cable channels. CA’s affirmative action ban was not repealed this past election and lost as miserably as the unfair tax did in IL.
Maybe my relative aren’t typical, I can’t say for certain, but I don’t get the sense that they are outliers. Outnumbered 7 to 4 for sure, but still a formidable voter based compared to most states in the union.
“I hope Gary chimes in here to tell us what single family home inventory looks like city wide. It was under 2 months the last few months.”
Keep in mind that, for the time being, I’m calculating my own months of supply. I think the packaged numbers have issues. I’m taking current month contracts/ EOM units for sale. SFH inventory is at a record low of 1.4 months. Condos 2.6 months, near the lows.
“a formidable voter base”
To what end? 11 of 53 US house seats, and super-minorities in both state houses, all from maps drawn by a non-partisan commission.
” The house’s price is a derivative of land value. Sometimes land becomes more valuable, sometimes less. ”
——————————-
Your statement is overly simplistic. House prices are a function of equivalent rents, and equivalent rents depend on transportation options to job centers, and education system quality (a function of social cohesion), among other things. Land “becoming” more valuable or less valuable is not a random event, and saying “supply and demand” ignores what is causing the “supply” and causing the “demand.”
So housing was a way to make money, through forced savings — principal payments on your mortgage created savings. In Chicago, however, home prices have not kept up with inflation, so any growth in savings have to be compared to alternative investments.
Which brings us back to rent. You have to live somewhere. You live in Chicago. You can’t compare Chicago home price growth to Salt Lake City home price growth if you would never move to Salt Lake City.
As Chicago decays, however, overall relative prices will decline, which they have done almost without interruption for the past forty-plus years.
“Your statement is overly simplistic.”
Is it? You say “House prices are a function of equivalent rents, and equivalent rents depend on transportation options to job centers, and education system quality (a function of social cohesion), among other things.”
That sounds a lot like location, location, location. In other words, rents as well as house prices are ultimately derivative of land values. This is the easiest yet hardest concept for people to grasp in Real Estate Development.
When they built the west side they extend the L lines out first in order to raise the land values
“A typical 21st century “California conservative” is a social liberal, moderate anti-taxer who is still way to the left of the typical Idahoan.”
anon – I don’t think you can fully comprehend how other than the coastal cities, California is almost entirely rednecks… I had no idea till I spent some time in the state… its pretty wild
“To what end? 11 of 53 US house seats, and super-minorities in both state houses, all from maps drawn by a non-partisan commission.”
1) A non-partisan redistricting commissions are a myth. You can google the recent study yourself that shows California’s supposedly non-partisan redistricting produced a more partisan map that Texas’s Republican gerrymandering. Non-partisan is nothing more than a cover for the ruling party to claim independence when the highly partisan maps created are ratified.
2) California had 6,000,000 voters for Trump. Texas only had 5,800,000 voters for Trump. FL had 5,600,000 votes for Trump. CA has more Trump voters than TX or FL. But CA Republicans are outnumbered by the 11,100,000 Biden voters. Again, compared to other states in the union, CA has A LOT, if not the most Republican voters of any state . But they are outnumbered 7:4 so their votes are wasted.
3) However, CA Republicans have been fleeing to red states for a generation now, turning red states even redder.
4) Which is why it doesn’t take very many of CA’s 6,000,000 remaining Republicans to move to western states and totally distort housing prices.
5) The same is happening in reverse in IL. We don’t have the population growth in IL as other states do, and our property prices reflect that, as johnc aptly calls ‘decay’. Take a drive downstate – it’s hollowed out, as conservative leaning residents in rural areas flee the state for greener pastures. It’s real. There is no area in IL that is growing other than some exurban communities. ANd it’s not because they are a bunch of rural hicks, it’s because the legislature ignores the rest of state, and their interests are ignored.
“You can google the recent study yourself that shows California’s supposedly non-partisan redistricting produced a more partisan map that Texas’s Republican gerrymandering.”
Study done by whom? I gthooi, but cannot find.
“CA has more Trump voters than TX or FL.”
CA had more “extra” Biden votes (5.1m) than all but three states (FL, TX, NY) had for *either* of them, and more than all but 9 states (those 4+IL, PA, MI, MC & OH) had *total* votes for POTUS.
“I don’t think you can fully comprehend how other than the coastal cities, California is almost entirely rednecks… I had no idea till I spent some time in the state… its pretty wild”
1. Used scare quotes for a reason
2. Very few of those redneck folks are moving to other states, in no small part bc
3. Many of them are glorified welfare queens, running businesses that only thrive bc of communistic discounted use of federal land, or the communistic central valley water project, or communistic ag subsidies, or turning a blind eye to their undocumented employees, or whatever.
“3) However, CA Republicans have been fleeing to red states for a generation now, turning red states even redder.”
Explain Colorado, Arizona, and Houston (Harris County).
“Explain Colorado, Arizona, and Houston (Harris County).”
Immigration, as voting districts with 14% or more foreign born residents vote democrat 90% of the time …CO is 15% foreign born, Harris County, TX is 26% foreign born.
Arizona is still only 13% foreign born. And in AZ, there is some pretty convincing evidence of fraud hence the audit. And before you start screaming “baseless!!! partisan!!!” like an NPC who reads too much NBC News, if the election was legit, then you have nothing to worry about…
https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/readers-respond/bs-ed-rr-gerrymandering-fix-letter-20190709-cxmvmzftwbco7orjftvpfdhw5u-story.html
Non-partisan election districts are a fantasy
“3. Many of them are glorified welfare queens.”
Come on, that’s racist. You’re not allowed to say this kind of stuff anymore in 2021. I’m serious. Nobody talks like this anymore. You know better than this.
“Non-partisan election districts are a fantasy”
“readers respond”??
“The writer is research director for the Capital Research Center.”
“In 2011, Politico reported that CRC had received millions of dollars from conservative philanthropists over the years, with a total budget in 2009 of $1.4 million. Donors have included foundations run by the Koch family, the Scaifes, and the Bradleys. As of 2017, CRC had received more than $265,000 from ExxonMobil.”
So, a paid lobbyist says its true, so it must be?
“You’re not allowed to say this kind of stuff anymore in 2021. I’m serious. Nobody talks like this anymore. You know better than this.”
I’m just using Mother Jones’ language:
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/09/the-wealthy-are-the-real-welfare-queens-and-donald-trump-is-their-king/
“That sounds a lot like location, location, location. In other words, rents as well as house prices are ultimately derivative of land values.”
—————————–
You missed the point about changes of land values not being random events. They change because of changes in attributes; transportation advantages, job center locations, etc. Those change demand to live somewhere, which affect rents. House prices are a function of rent equivalents.
Nobody says “I want to live at X because X is where X is.” They want to live at X because of its proximity to job-school-transport-etc. Location-location-location is simply shorthand for those factors. Land values are a result of those factors and without those factors land values decline in some fashion.
“And in AZ, there is some pretty convincing evidence of fraud hence the audit. And before you start screaming “baseless!!! partisan!!!” like an NPC who reads too much NBC News, if the election was legit, then you have nothing to worry about…”
I have seen no convincing evidence but let’s set that aside. What do I have to worry about? Future elections where anyone with any excuse can demand an audit and leave results up in the air indefinitely. If I think space aliens dropped off counterfeit ballots should I be able to perform my own audit where I check each ballot for a magnetic field?
“Immigration, as voting districts”
Let’s stop right there…. explain republicans winning the mayoral race in McCallen, Texas two weeks ago which is 85% Latino (I imagine the majority are first or second generation Americans). Further, explain Zapata County (Texas), 93% Latino, voted Democrat for a century until 2020. Trump lost the county by 44 point in 2016 but won by 11 in 2020.
Further, explain Miami Dade and Cuban Americans (who are again 1st or 2nd generation) in the 2020 election.
Stop blaming immigration when the only demographic that Trump didn’t improve on in 2020 compared to 2016 was white people specifically white males. He lost 3 points compared to 2016.
At some point you got to look in the mirror and admit (i) that you lost and (ii) come to terms with why
https://www.npr.org/2020/11/05/931836590/how-texas-longtime-democratic-and-heavily-latino-county-flipped-red
“And in AZ, there is some pretty convincing evidence of fraud hence the audit.”
After you cite evidence which I think is “fake news” you then need to come to terms with even if there is a modicum of truth to this what’s the net result? Biden didn’t need Arizona to win….
Biden won because he flipped Wi, MI, and PA back to Blue. Also, none of these States are 15% immigrant…. They are mostly white people who flipped back to voting Blue.
WI – 81% White
MI – 75% White
PA – 76% White
Oh and for the kicker:
TX: 41% White
FL: 53% White
CO: 68% White
AZ: 54% White
IL: 61% White
Yeah keep blaming “immigrants”. That’s clearly what the numbers show….. snark.
WP, thanks for helping the fraud argument! All of these factors indicate it should have gone trump, and yet, they still somehow by a slim margin of votes dropped late in the middle of the night, magically defied the odds voted for Biden! Please, keep going!
Also, don’t conflate foreign born with minority. That’s totally racist.
Its technically congressional districts with 14%+ foreign born residents flip blue 90% of all elections. Not minority or person of color. Foreign born.
“they still somehow by a slim margin of votes dropped late in the middle of the night”
This was reported months in advance. It’s called mail-in votes. I thought Boomers knew how the mail delivery system worked? Pretty much the only people that still use it.
Maybe talk to your boy Louis DeJoy as to why the mail service has been so slow since October….. Chicago’s PostMaster General was finally fired two weeks ago.
“Also, don’t conflate foreign born with minority”
So you don’t have anything then? Or was there a mass influx of white Canadians to MI, PA, and WI over the past 20 – 30 years? Are the Brexit people starting to get frustrated and jumping the pond?
“Its technically congressional districts with 14%+ foreign born residents flip blue”
Yet I just provided you with evidence of Texas Counties. Zapata County is 20%+ foreign born yet flipped from Blue to Red for the first time in 100 years. McCallen, TX just voted for a Republican Mayor two weeks ago 27% foreign born, Miami Dade over 50% foreign born carried Trump in Florida last year.
Again, Trump lost because white voters in PA, WI, and MI flipped back to Blue.
“Its technically congressional districts with 14%+ foreign born residents flip blue 90% of all elections”
Also explain New Hampshire (90% white; 6% foreign born) and Vermont (92.6% white; 5% foreign born), and Maine (93% white; 4% foreign born).
“Keep in mind that, for the time being, I’m calculating my own months of supply. I think the packaged numbers have issues. I’m taking current month contracts/ EOM units for sale. SFH inventory is at a record low of 1.4 months. Condos 2.6 months, near the lows.”
whoa. Thanks Gary.
I was hoping it had improved a little bit. Apparently not.
So tight out there.
“Except it was the white post-menopausal hags, and the white premature post-menopausal hags, the obese women, etc. that put Biden on top.”
Please provide a link to the polls, from which you determined this, where women self-identify in these categories
“Suffrage was the biggest mistake in US History, look at the decline of this once great nation. It’s non-stop perverts and ugliness everywhere.”
What percentage of the population is perverts in your opinion, how has that changed over time, and please explain how suffrage caused that.
Of course you won’t answer any of my questions because you just make shit up and then surround yourself with people who agree with you.
” Suffrage was the biggest mistake in US History,”
———————————-
Bigger than slavery?
“congressional districts with 14%+ foreign born residents flip blue 90% of all elections”
If its “all” elections, how do they flip?
Are you saying that when a CD goes from under 14% to over 14% it flips from R to D?
What’s the sample size there, in the post-WW2 era?
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/02/07/democrats-winning-90-congressional-districts-with-large-foreign-born-populations/
“Mass legal immigration is driving Democrats towards full electoral dominance, with left-wing politicians winning nearly 90 percent of congressional districts with larger than average foreign-born populations, analysis finds.
The Atlantic senior editor Ronald Brownstein analyzed Census Bureau statistics for the 2018 midterm elections, finding that the country’s admission of more than a million legal immigrants every year is set to hand over electoral dominance to House and Senate Democrats.
Among Brownstein’s findings is that nearly 90 percent of House congressional districts with a foreign-born population above the national average were won by Democrats. This concludes that every congressional district with a foreign-born population exceeding 14 percent had a 90 percent chance of being controlled by Democrats and only a ten percent chance of electing a Republican.”
I had forgotten that one of the biggest reasons I stopped reading this blog was helmet. I wish there was a way to just hide all of their posts. Henceforth, I will assume helmet’s gender as non-binary and use they/them as their preferred pronouns.
“nearly 90 percent of House congressional districts with a foreign-born population above the national average were won by Democrats.”
Just spit-balling but could it be the head of the Democrat party (unlike the Republican party) doesn’t demonize immigrants, make it harder to renew visas, call immigrants dirty, rapists and murderers, also allows immigrants to travel back to their home countries (without saying it’s a shithole) without fear that they won’t be allowed back in the US?
Most immigrants that come to the US typically come from more culturally conservative countries. Should probably look in the mirror as to why the “conservative” party in the US is having such a tough time winning these voters.
Oh I forgot to throw in that same party had a very negative reaction towards a group of people post 9/11 (most of whom were first or second generation immigrants) and that same party has demonized the people from the largest country in the world for the past 16+ months.
Maybe demonizing immigrants isn’t good political strategy? Just a thought.
“This concludes that every congressional district with a foreign-born population exceeding 14 percent had a 90 percent chance of being controlled by Democrats and only a ten percent chance of electing a Republican.”
How is that a flip??
“Mass legal immigration is driving Democrats towards full electoral dominance, with left-wing politicians winning nearly 90 percent of congressional districts with larger than average foreign-born populations, analysis finds.
Sounds like correlation, not causation. Is it due to immigration status or economic?
I dont think there’s a lot of overlap between different 1st gen immigrants Say Cuban Vs East African
“Oh I forgot to throw in that same party had a very negative reaction towards a group of people post 9/11 (most of whom were first or second generation immigrants) and that same party has demonized the people from the largest country in the world for the past 16+ months.”
Is the Wuhan Lab Leak really demonizing everyone in the country? If so thats a pretty low bar and not one based in any sort of reality
“Is the Wuhan Lab Leak really demonizing everyone in the country?”
Of course not. But the KungFlu, Chinese Virus stuff was ridiculous and is part of why the Lab Leak wasn’t taken seriously and even worse considered a conspiracy/racist for thinking/discussing it. Here we are 15 months later now able to openly discuss that this is likely how it occurred and maybe we will actually credibly investigate the theory.
I get it WP, you hate Republicans and white people. You’re racist against middle america. You believe that immigrants are more American than natives who vote for the Orange Man. I know people like you, you’ll never change you mind, and I’m not trying to. But you asked what immigration has to do with Democrat votes and I gave pretty good answer.
Johnny: 90% correlation is close enough for me, economic or not. Look at the transformation of Dupage County, from a conservative stronghold as recently as two decades ago, to completely and solidly blue, now that according to 2019 census information, 1 out of 5 people residing in Dupage county are foreign born.
Anon(tfo): see above, the transformation of Dupage county is quite literally one of the best examples of immigration and foreign born counties flipping from Republican to Democrat as they cross that 14% threshold.
Today’s immigrants and their children vote Democrat.
“see above, the transformation of Dupage county is quite literally one of the best examples of immigration and foreign born counties flipping from Republican to Democrat as they cross that 14% threshold.”
So, one out of one? Is it 100% then, rather than 90%?
btw, DuPage was 15.3% foreign-born in 2000. When W beat Gore by 13 points, Henry Hyde won by almost 18, and by over 30 in ’02.
Congressional seat (6th, redrawn) didn’t flip until ’18. When the foreign-born % was … 15% (ie, down slightly).
homedelete, you and hh will NEVER be as American as a foreign-born immigrant that naturalizes in this country… they are way more American than your racist. US-born, immigrant-descendant status… I’m starting think that you are both self-loathing closeted homosexuals…
“Today’s immigrants and their children vote Democrat.”
Of course. They are, as a group (to the extent one can draw this broad an inferrence), better educated or more likeley to attain high levels of advanced education, more entreprenurial and success oriented, and more civic minded, than recent generations of immigrants and, it should go without saying, the vast majority of native-born white U.S. citizens alive right now (who are, all things considered and adjusted, at the moment the single most underperforming demographic in the western world).
Jack and annony,
I try really hard to see things from your perspective. I mean seriously, you’re educated, smart, likely read a lot, and you really believe that immigrants are better educated and more likely to obtain success and are more civic oriented than natives?
Do you have any facts to back this up or is this just what you believe because NPR told you so? I mean really, why do you say things like this when a 10 second google search shows it to be completely false?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/09/01/immigrant-welfare-use-report/71517072/
Report: More than half of immigrants on welfare
* * * * * * *
More than half of the nation’s immigrants receive some kind of government welfare, a figure that’s far higher than the native-born population’s, according to a report to be released Wednesday.
About 51% of immigrant-led households receive at least one kind of welfare benefit, including Medicaid, food stamps, school lunches and housing assistance, compared to 30% for native-led households, according to the report from the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that advocates for lower levels of immigration.
Those numbers increase for households with children, with 76% of immigrant-led households receiving welfare, compared to 52% for the native-born.
The findings are sure to fuel debate on the presidential campaign trail as Republican candidates focus on changing the nation’s immigration laws, from calls for mass deportations to ending birthright citizenship.
Steven Camarota, director of research at the center and author of the report, said that’s a much-needed conversation to make the country’s immigration system more “selective.”
“This should not be understood as some kind of defect or moral failing on the part of immigrants,” Camarota said about the findings. “Rather, what it represents is a system that allows a lot of less-educated immigrants to settle in the country, who then earn modest wages and are eligible for a very generous welfare system.”
I’m not even sure how this thread got off on this tangent but it started from the title:
“May 2021 Was Hottest in 13 Years as Condo Sales Jumped”,
which moved onto the Pandemic changed how people live and where they moved, and describing how the housing market out west is so much more robust than Chicago;
into migrants voting habits change localities (turning Montana into California) into immigrants’ voting habits changed Dupage county into Cook county. And now we’re so far off that it’s delved into personal attacks. This is a good place to move on to a new thread, i think.
Chinese Virus stuff was ridiculous and is part of why the Lab Leak wasn’t taken seriously and even worse considered a conspiracy/racist for thinking/discussing it. Here we are 15 months later now able to openly discuss that this is likely how it occurred and maybe we will actually credibly investigate the theory.
No, lab leak wasn’t taken seriously as it was deemed racists to block travel from China and having a truly scientific based discussion was not allowed. It jumped the shark when calling it the Wuhan Flu was verboten. This will be a political game where whatabout-ism will be used to assign blame Vs admitting that this was a complete political, institutional and media failure. We’ll learn nothing but how to find a scapegoat
But yea, go team
“ “see above, the transformation of Dupage county is quite literally one of the best examples of immigration and foreign born counties flipping from Republican to Democrat as they cross that 14% threshold.””
In addition to TFO’s comment, I believe that the main reason DuPage flipped in 20 years is primarily due to migration from Chicago (especially in the Lower economic class) fleeing violence and shit schools
Sabrina got her wish to get rid of the Poors and minorities.
“In addition to TFO’s comment, I believe that the main reason DuPage flipped in 20 years is primarily due to migration from Chicago (especially in the Lower economic class) fleeing violence and shit schools”
Clearly JohnnyU hasn’t lived in the Chicagoland area for quite some time. Decades.
Because the demographics in DuPage County don’t support “lower economic” classes fleeing there in the last 20 years. Over the last 20 years, average home price has probably doubled. And it was always middle class previously and remains middle, upper middle class and rich.
The Tribune has done studies showing where Chicagoans have moved over the past 50 years in terms of suburban migration.
Big migration counties are further out now where housing costs are cheaper.
And Chicago doesn’t have “shit” schools.
Please, I beg of you commenters, get into this decade (not to mention this century.) Quit embarrassing yourself with these silly comments.
“see above, the transformation of Dupage county is quite literally one of the best examples of immigration and foreign born counties flipping from Republican to Democrat as they cross that 14% threshold.”
The suburbs flipped because GenX women are Democrats. Plain and simple.
Millennial women are Democrats. Will GenZ women be democrats?
With the way the Republican party is moving on social issues and birth control, the answer will likely be “yes.”
Republicans will never win the suburbs again without women.
“Look at the transformation of Dupage County, from a conservative stronghold as recently as two decades ago, to completely and solidly blue, now that according to 2019 census information, 1 out of 5 people residing in Dupage county are foreign born.”
Nope. GenX women homedelete.
And it’s true in all of the suburbs across the nation, including those that gave two Senate seats to the Democrats in Georgia.
Republicans had the “soccer moms” who were Baby Boomers. But GenX turned. And now Millennials have followed. And when they lost that, they lost the suburbs.
“And Chicago doesn’t have “shit” schools.
Quit embarrassing yourself with these silly comments.”
——————————-
Back at you.
“Of course not. But the KungFlu, Chinese Virus stuff was ridiculous and is part of why the Lab Leak wasn’t taken seriously and even worse considered a conspiracy/racist for thinking/discussing it.”
I didn’t realize that “trust the science” was so sensitive to name calling. I’ve pretty middle of the road politically and registered as a D but let me tell you, after the events of last year, the total pandering to and protection of China and over dystopian reaction to this silly virus and the complete and utter failure of the Democrats to run Illinois, I cant in good conscious ever vote Democrat again. It’s become a party of absolute morons ruled by billionaire oligarchs. Same could be said for the Republicans. But at least the Republicans took the side of the working person and small business owners during this clusterfuck and didn’t encourage burning down our cities. I thought the Republican party was dead after the GW Bush wars of stupidity but congrats Democrats, you actually did worse than Bush. That takes some seriously mass retardation. But then again look at IL, its full of retards, so I guess it makes sense this is where our country is headed. Feelings over logic. You know the world is F*cked up when Florida is the most sane state in the union.
” the total pandering to and protection of China and over dystopian reaction to this silly virus and the complete and utter failure of the Democrats to run Illinois, I cant in good conscious ever vote Democrat again.”
Remind what did Trump do to China when they took over Hong Kong or found out every large tech and retail company used slave labor in its supply chain? Oh yeah they took their ire out on the NBA…..
$250 Billion bipartisan tech and manufacturing bill passed under Biden not Trump…. Also, EO’s on restricting American investment in certain industries in China was Biden not Trump. Trump said words but didn’t follow through on much. Would be nice if something similar would happen with PPE/Medical Supply Chains as well.
“complete and utter failure of the Democrats to run Illinois, I cant in good conscious ever vote Democrat again”
When was the last time you actually voted Democrat? Bill Clinton and Rahm Emanuel I assume?
“It’s become a party of absolute morons ruled by billionaire oligarchs.”
Bruce Rauner and Donald Trump are not billionaire’s? Ken Griffin and Richard Uilein aren’t “billionaire oligarch”? How bought Steve Schwarzman and Robert Mercer? Or do you only focus on JB, Daniel Biss, Fred Eychaner, and Michael Sachs?
“But at least the Republicans took the side of the working person and small business owners during this clusterfuck”
Specifically how did they take the side of the “working person” and “small business owners” PPP was bipartisan as was bailing out the rich… again….
Also wasn’t Rauner trying to union bust for 4 years. Would that hurt or held the “working person” in Illinois?
“didn’t encourage burning down our cities.”
Correct but they did encourage burning down the capitol, hanging Mike Pence, and overthrowing the election? Doesn’t look like either party can claim the moral high-ground.
“Feelings over logic.”
Because running for re-election with the platform of “law and order” without any policy behind it or anything else wasn’t about “feelings over logic”.
Might want to head to Tokyo for the Olympics with the amount of gymnastics you have to do to avoid the obvious flaws in your above analysis.
Understanding that both parties suck and are major hypocrites controlled by oligarchs (including Trump) should be the logic over feelings.
“Or do you only focus on … Daniel Biss”
Huh? When did Biss make his billion?
Look at WP’s rabid defensive response to my post, defending his loser team with the fervor of a Cleveland Browns or Bears fan lol. This is the problem. Nobody can think anymore because they are so wedded to their “team”. Like I said, they both suck, but in this last year the Democrats were such assholes and so destructive Im punishing them with my votes just like we did to Bush. Do whatever the hell you want and go be a retarded Democrat. You’re in plenty of company in this shithole state. PS Rauner was actually trying to help you idiots and you ran him out of town for the fatter shittier billionaire who’s family keeps their money safely offshore and resided in FL at their real home in Palm Beach while you assholes just sat there and took it. IL gets what it deserves.
“Huh? When did Biss make his billion?”
Apologies meant Chris Kennedy.
“fatter shittier billionaire who’s family keeps their money safely offshore and resided in FL at their real home in Palm Beach while you assholes just sat there and took it”
You do realize that Bruce Rauner also lives in Palm Beach and he has plenty of coin offshore…..
“PS Rauner was actually trying to help you idiots”
Not having a budget for how many years “helped”? Credit Rating downgrades were helpful? Not paying State Vendors is good? Oh and then the kicker taxes were raised on everyone….. AWESOME!
You realize Rauner had to grab the tin cup and go to JB’s wife to get $5MM for the Ounce of Prevention Fund (run by Rauner’s Wife) an early childhood education nonprofit BECAUSE Illinois (led by Bruce Rauner) didn’t pass a budget and was suing the State of Illinois due to breach of contract.
“Via their Pritzker Children’s Initiative, billionaires J.B. and M.K. Pritzker have granted $5 million to the Ounce of Prevention Fund, Illinois first lady Diana Rauner’s early childhood education nonprofit.”
“The Ounce of Prevention Fund is part of Pay Now Illinois, a coalition of nonprofit and for-profit social services agencies suing the state of Illinois for breach of contract. The agencies, all told, are owed $161 million. The suit particularly names Gov. Rauner, state Comptroller Leslie Munger and the directors of seven state agencies.”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160802/NEWS07/160809958/j-b-m-k-pritzker-give-5-million-to-rauner-s-ounce-of-prevention-fund
Clearly JohnnyU hasn’t lived in the Chicagoland area for quite some time. Decades.
Because the demographics in DuPage County don’t support “lower economic” classes fleeing there in the last 20 years. Over the last 20 years, average home price has probably doubled. And it was always middle class previously and remains middle, upper middle class and rich.
The Tribune has done studies showing where Chicagoans have moved over the past 50 years in terms of suburban migration.
Big migration counties are further out now where housing costs are cheaper.
And Chicago doesn’t have “shit” schools.
Please, I beg of you commenters, get into this decade (not to mention this century.) Quit embarrassing yourself with these silly comments.
DuPage is a little more than just Oak Brook, Hinsdale & Naperthrill. Villa Park, Bensenville, Addison all have Lower Class areas. And yes Glenbard East, Addison Trail, etc are a huge step up from many of the HS in the poorer areas
You are a flat out moron
Rauner moved to FL after IL retards threw him out. He basically said FU to to us. Good for him. Hundreds of thousands of Illinoisans are following him out too.
WP,
You’re a sharp guy, hopefully some day you’ll look in the mirror and realize that people like you with your awful voting habits are the reason the state sucks so bad. It might do you some good to vote for the other team once in a while because the people you vote on the team you vote for suck really bad and mostly end up in prison.
Ed,
“Rauner moved to FL after IL retards threw him out.”
Knowing what I know now, I have my doubts about the legitimacy of every election in Democrat controlled states since 2016. It was pretty clear the IL establishment was never going to let Rauner win, and somehow 800,000 new mid-term voters showed up out of nowhere in 2018 to supposedly kick Rauner out of office. 800,000, of which 400k came just from Cook County. Even the Tribune found it shocking that in IL so many new people were motivated in an otherwise average turnout mid-term election to vote Rauner out of office. Of course, they wouldn’t say the quiet part out loud, but now we all know.
“It might do you some good to vote for the other team once in a while because the people you vote on the team you vote for suck really bad and mostly end up in prison.”
Homedelete, it seems like you’ve been in Illinois long enough to know that it was a Republican dominated state until just 20 years ago with Republican governors for years and even, gasp, Republican senators.
As of 2020 elections, the number of Republican Congressmen in Illinois fell to the lowest level since the Civil War.
It’s been a long decline in the state for the Republican party.
But when you have Trump actively saying he’s going to campaign against Adam Kinzinger, who is extremely popular in his home district, how do you expect the Republican party to regroup in the state?
Where is the political talent on the Republican side? Isn’t that why someone like Rauner was able to step in and run for Governor with no political experience? There really wasn’t anyone else.
I hope Kinzinger runs statewide but the dumb Republicans will probably primary him if he does.
“Even the Tribune found it shocking that in IL so many new people were motivated in an otherwise average turnout mid-term election to vote Rauner out of office.”
Excuse me?
It just gets more laughable.
Even Bill Barr is saying election fraud in 2020 is bullshit.
Democrats were motivated in the midterms. Not against Rauner, but against everything else going on. Rauner went down because he had an “R” next to his name.
I wish Republicans would quit whining about election turnout. The Democrats have worked hard to make it happen. And it’s going to happen again in 2022. And there will be more whining from the Republicans.
“Rauner moved to FL after IL retards threw him out. He basically said FU to to us. Good for him. Hundreds of thousands of Illinoisans are following him out too.”
It’s a big country. Plenty of places to live. Go where you are happy.
Meanwhile, Chicago and the suburban housing market is on fire and the apartments are filling back up because Chicago is a world class city. And it’s actually pretty affordable even with the price increases.
“Apologies meant Chris Kennedy.”
Chris Kennedy isn’t a billionaire.
“ It’s been a long decline in the state for the Republican party.”
Who has controlled the legislature for 46 of the last 48 years?
“You’re in plenty of company in this shithole state.”
Why are you in Illinois Ed?
The bitterness!
It’s really ugly.
Just move. Thousands of people have done so all over the country in the last 16 months. Join them. It’s not hard. Sell your house. Call the moving van. Millions of job openings all over the country.
Leave and live a better life.
But for some reason you’re obsessed with how awful Illinois is. And you whine and cry about it on a housing blog.
And who cares what the Illinois governor is doing if you hate Illinois and probably don’t even live here? Honestly.
Yeah- he’s a billionaire. Are you jealous? What is it about all of you bitter men on this site and Governor Pritzker?
Do you secretly want to be Governor? What is it?
Seems like a thankless job during a pandemic and with all of Illinois financial problems. Good luck to JB, is what I say. There are no good solutions. Same with big city mayors right now. Nothing easy or fun about that job.
But it’s a free country unless you’re in jail. Why aren’t you leaving Ed? You could move to Florida or Texas and pay no income tax. Just go!
“Who has controlled the legislature for 46 of the last 48 years?”
The Republican Governors had to sign all those bills HD.
The state budgets and pension issues didn’t just spring up overnight. Both parties have been poor stewards of the state. To argue otherwise is disingenuous.
WP:
There’s still this myth around the Kennedys that they are still mega-rich. They’re not.
Lots of grandkids and no one has really made any big money in about 100 years.
Here’s what Chris Kennedy’s taxes showed in 2017. He “made” $1.3 million that year. Doesn’t mean his “net worth” isn’t higher, but he’s likely just your run of the mill millionaire guy with some stocks and real estate.
No Kennedy is on the Forbes 400 now. Too many tech billionaires now.
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/11/27/chris-kennedy-j-b-pritzker-release-tax-returns/
“ Yeah- he’s a billionaire. Are you jealous? What is it about all of you bitter men on this site and Governor Pritzker?”
He was born on 3rd base and acts like he hit a triple
What is it with you and defending Gov Fatfuck, Chubby chaser or (D) after his name?
“Chris Kennedy isn’t a billionaire”
The Kennedy family is a billionaire family. Everything is held in dynasty trusts that benefit everyone in the family.
20+ years ago was the Merchandise Mart sale for almost $600 million.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlodonnell/2014/07/08/how-the-1-billion-kennedy-family-fortune-defies-death-and-taxes-3/?sh=47d324d74e4a
“some day you’ll look in the mirror and realize that people like you with your awful voting habits”
I’ve voted one time in my life and that was in the most recent election to vote against the “fair tax”. I guess this means you supported the “fair tax”?
“people you vote on the team you vote for suck really bad and mostly end up in prison.”
Which person did I vote for end up in prison? That would be a pretty quick indictment.
Curious as to peoples thoughts about the Florida Condo collapse having any negative effects on the Chicago high rise condo market? Whether from increased inspections/regulations, higher HOA’s to ensure maintenance isn’t deferred, and/or decreased appreciation as buyer appetite decreases? Or is this merely a blip that’s looked as an aberration/Miami issue?
Seems like there might have been some greasing of politicians hands down in Miami to get better inspection reports.
The Sun Times had an opinion column yesterday and referred to the 08 Operation Crooked Code when the Feds probed bribery in Chicago’s buildings and zoning departments, coming up with a dozen convictions.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2021/6/27/22551589/florida-condo-tower-collapse-surfside-building-inspections-safety-feds-corruption-chicago
“Curious as to peoples thoughts about the Florida Condo collapse having any negative effects on the Chicago high rise condo market?”
Everyone will now be a Structural Engineer, in addition to virus expert, statistician, MD, Lawyer, etc. The article is a good example, settlement isn’t going to make a building collapse, its differential settlement that causes buildings to fail
Any changes are going to be driven by the insurance companies. Guess – there’s probably going to me more oversite required from the Engineers and Architects of record stamping the plans or their designees.
The city will probably hire a bunch of people known to connected folks who dont know shit from shinola.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/illinois-sees-first-bond-rating-upgrade-over-two-decades
“PS Rauner was actually trying to help you idiots”
As Madeline points out Illinois received its first bond upgrade this century. Why? Look at when and why the last downgrade occurred. The last downgrade was in 2017 because the former Governor decided to throw a temper tantrum and not pass a budget for 2+ years and not pay vendors as the bill backlog increased to a peak of $17 billion in 2017.
What’s happened since then? Bill backlog under $3Bn, passed budget, increased revenue even without the fair tax means the self-inflicted wounds the previous administration kept doing have been healed.
Yes the State has some serious structural issues but today it’s not structural issues + bill backlog + no budget thus we are rated as such.
Hopefully certain individuals understand that not passing budgets does not “help you idiots”. In fact it does the opposite. It’s just as harmful as underfunding pensions that the same group loves to complain about and cite as the driver of the “Exodus”. If budgets were passed during these years the probability of a “fair tax” getting on the ballot would have been significantly reduced if not politically impossible.
But I do not hold out hope as the same individuals that think Rauner was trying to “help you idiots” also think the election was “rigged”, “stolen”, are still searching to “find the ballots”, are busy recounting and replaying the previous year or four years instead of living in the present and more importantly in reality along with looking towards the future coming up with new ideas and plans.
That is not an endorsement of the current administration at the State or Federal Level just a reality check that paying bills on time and passing a budget is Civics and Good Government 101. It’s the bare minimum just as conceding an election when you lose. It was always expected and assumed until it didn’t happen.
This Lincoln Park condo is taking all offers in 6 days.
The lower end of the market is hot.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/603-W-Arlington-Pl-60614/unit-2/home/18925247
“Curious as to peoples thoughts about the Florida Condo collapse having any negative effects on the Chicago high rise condo market?”
Good question WP, but I don’t think it will have any impact in Chicago.
Our soil and climate is so different. There is definitely erosion in concrete on buildings in Chicago due to the heat, and cold. All concrete cracks and must be maintained.
And there is deferred maintenance in Chicago. There was just that building in Old Town that sold to a developer because it had a $16 million repair due for exterior repairs and no way to pay for it.
But we are building on a very different surface than in Miami with a different soil. In most cases, I should hope they’re drilling pretty deep to put in the pilings.
Also, remember the World Trade Center bombing in the parking garage in 1993? That was a pretty big bomb and it didn’t bring down the building but apparently they parked too far away from the concrete support columns. Still, the structure held.
WP,
Millionaire bad, Billionaire Good! Do you have any other nuggets of wisdom for us?
The ‘tantrum’ was called attempt at leverage against a wholly corrupt establishment who refused to address the governor’s proposals and a unionized bureaucracy that hostilely resisted all of the governor’s directives. Rauner bet the house and unfortunately lost. Most of his supporters still support his move. If you talk to anyone who soured on Rauner, it’s 100% because he allowed public funds for abortion, it had nothing to do with the budget.
Just so you understand, using the Star Wars narrative, the people you’re supporting as the ‘good’ guys who paid the bills are Emperor Palpatine and the rest of the Empire, while Rauner was the scrappy Republican resistance trying to fight the corrupt machine.
The people in power are not the good guys and the massive blue billboards on all the highways this month that say “IL DEMOCRATS DELIVER” is pure propaganda. You really should use your critical thinking once in a while.
I don’t think most people think that elected democrats are great. The majority, especially in Illinois, are corrupt. Supporting democrats is a matter of survival though. I like being alive. Republicans want white men to be armed and for those men to feel comfortable shooting anyone they please. I have personally benefitted from the ACA rules regarding routine healthcare. I don’t want to go back to calculating whether I want to get routine care vs. saving money. I like having control over my own body and don’t want the government to interfere with my personal choices that impact only myself. I don’t want to fear for the safety of my gay and trans friends and at least democrats are trying to implement policies to ensure marginalized people have basic civil rights. I like that voting in this state is easy and that mail-in and early voting are easily accessible.
Rauner was one of the very few exceptions in recent years who wasn’t a socially conservative nut job. He’s not a great example of the typical republican. Illinois is an exceptionally corrupt state and the pension situation is infuriating.
I find the republican party terrifying. I might get screwed on taxes with the corrupt democrats in Illinois, but at least I know that I have basic civil rights. Getting screwed over with taxes isn’t even just a democrat thing. Trump screwed over middle class homeowners in Chicagoland with the paltry SALT deduction.
“I should hope they’re drilling pretty deep to put in the pilings.”
And what, pray tell, do those “pilings” attach to in the drained swamp that is Chicago?
“remember the World Trade Center bombing in the parking garage in 1993?”
Speaking of entirely different substrata–Manhattan exists because it is a granite outcropping that the Hudson had to carve around. You’ve been in Central Park and seen the granite poking through in many places, I assume–that’s the whole damn island.
“wholly corrupt establishment who refused to address the governor’s proposals”
So you don’t believe in Co-Equal branches of government. You realize the legislative and judiciary bodies are just as powerful as the Governors.
“unionized bureaucracy that hostilely resisted all of the governor’s directives.”
Which is now stronger than ever due to one person thinking he was still CEO and not understanding co-equal branches of government. Awful political skills.
“Most of his supporters still support his move.”
You need 50% + 1 for support to turn into action. Wasn’t the case then. Isn’t the case now.
“soured on Rauner, it’s 100% because he allowed public funds for abortion”
That’s quite an odd one. He ran on reforming pensions, lowering taxes, putting Illinois on a better financial footing, and union busting. Failed on all of them. Almost dropped out of the race during his re-election. I struggle to think there is a plurality of people in 2021 that only vote on pro or anti-abortion policy. It may be an “issue” when evaluating candidates like tax policy but it’s typically not the defining issue of a campaign or in the top 10 or 20 of issues that voters want addressed.
“Rauner was the scrappy Republican resistance trying to fight the corrupt machine.”
Rauner literally settled campaign finance violations last week dealing with robocalls to 35,000 constituents from his 2014 campaign.
“massive blue billboards on all the highways this month that say “IL DEMOCRATS DELIVER” is pure propaganda.”
isn’t any advertising campaign especially political campaign advertising “propaganda”? Outside of being defeated on the “fair tax” at the ballot box they have delivered on alot of their promises that they ran on. So comparatively speaking they did deliver to the people that put them in office.
“You really should use your critical thinking once in a while.”
Remind me again the critical thinking that Darren Bailey uses when he invites Marjorie Taylor Greene to his district for a fundraiser and photo-op?
Have fun with that….
” Trump screwed over middle class homeowners in Chicagoland with the paltry SALT deduction.”
The SALT Cap does not screw over middle class homeowners. Only 9% of homeowners deduct more than $10K. 60% of the benefit goes to the top 1%. I would like to see the SALT CAP expanded to CAP homeowners interest deductions and other tax breaks and write-offs that seemingly only benefit the uber rich.
“Trump screwed over middle class homeowners in Chicagoland with the paltry SALT deduction.”
That’s the thing Jenny, you aren’t middle class. You think you’re middle class because you live in an urban or Chicagoland bubble but you’re not.
The 2017 tax bill cut taxes for the bottom 85% and top 0.1%. It raised them for everyone else.
Now before you go pearl clutching that the 0.1% got a tax cut you should realize that they already disproportionately pay more taxes than any other group especially when considered through the lens of government services received vs government remittances so any change in the tax code trying to make it more equitable would likely benefit them.
Jenny you are living your little urban dream of being an upper middle class person trying to climb some perceived ladder meanwhile claiming you are middle class and a victim is laughable. If your taxes went up due to the SALT cap limit you have a lifestyle that is the envy of 99.5% of the rest of the world. You should definitely show some humility and also…what is that phrase the Democrats always love to use?
“Pay your fair share”? or… “taxes are the price we pay to live in a civilized society”.
“And what, pray tell, do those “pilings” attach to in the drained swamp that is Chicago?”
Al Capones Tomb?
“Speaking of entirely different substrata–Manhattan exists because it is a granite outcropping that the Hudson had to carve around. You’ve been in Central Park and seen the granite poking through in many places, I assume–that’s the whole damn island.”
Wait different locals have different soil profiles? Somebody alert the media!
Nice to see Sabrina commenting on more topics she doesnt have a clue about
“As Madeline points out Illinois received its first bond upgrade this century. Why? Look at when and why the last downgrade occurred. The last downgrade was in 2017 because the former Governor decided to throw a temper tantrum and not pass a budget for 2+ years and not pay vendors as the bill backlog increased to a peak of $17 billion in 2017.”
You are a fool. The reason for the Illinois bond upgrade is because of covid-relief money from the federal government. You know the covid-relief money that is not supposed to be used for debt repayment but as most people don’t realize that money is completely fungible so guess what Illinois did? They used the covid relief monies to pay for things then they used the money they were previously going to use to pay for things to pay down debt.
Because that’s the thing about money and currency: it is additive. You can try to throw up fences around the purpose of it like Illinois did with the highway funds but it’s nothing more than a linear programming optimization problem with allocating the restricted funds along with the unrestricted funds.
Oh and there will be a new referendum question in 2022 for strengthening unions. There will not be one for reforming the public pensions. And you can guess what will be on the referendum again in 2024: a progressive income tax.
The only people seriously talking about the bond upgrade being a good thing are Rich Miller and his blog of partisan machine Democrats. It is a wholly illusory improvement in Illinois’ finances until the Federal nipple of covid-19 money is removed, by which time the plan is to have a progressive income tax in place (that means higher taxes for almost all of you).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/u-s-mortgage-applications-plunged-last-week-by-most-since-2009
Mortgage/Re-Fi applications plunge
“The reason for the Illinois bond upgrade is because of covid-relief money from the federal government.”
Umm no. This is not recurring revenue. State Revenue YTD – May 2021 was up $6 Billion EXCLUDING Federal money compared to 2020. Even after you back out the delayed tax filing to July FY 2021 revenues up $4.7 Billion.
That’s more than the “fair tax” was supposed to raise.
Mendoza has been paying down the bill backlog before Covid money was even approved.
https://cgfa.ilga.gov/Upload/0521revenue.pdf
Even a small starter home in an inexpensive suburb tends to have property taxes in the $8,000 – $10,000 range and by the time you factor in state income tax, you’re well over the $10,000 mark. This may not impact married couples because their standard deduction is $24,000. It greatly impacts single people who only get a $12,000 standard deduction.
I don’t think it’s fair to pay taxes on top of taxes. The federal government gets enough money from Illinois. They don’t need to get even more from us. The money we provide to the federal government ends up getting redistributed to poor red states.
“The federal government gets enough money from Illinois”
The Federal and State Government gets enough money from people who generate the bulk of their incomes as W-2 earners.
“They don’t need to get even more from us”
Median Illinois Income is $65K; standard deduction of $12K for single people means you have $53K of taxable wages at 4.95% or $2.6K so you have $7.4K leftover until you get to $10K. Median Cook County Property Value is $283K with a median tax rate of 2.10% or $5.9K.
If you complain about “high property taxes” and the “SALT CAP” understand you are rich and part of the top 10%.
Stop whining that your marginal rate increased a 1% – 2% on the low – mid six figure income when the median salary is $65K.
Note Cook County median income is lower than the States by ~$1K as well.
“The money we provide to the federal government ends up getting redistributed to poor red states.”
How Libertarian of you…… But also, I guess you want to cut funding for military bases, highways, and want less farming and higher food prices?
When Retirees leave Illinois to go to Florida or Arizona should their Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security be cut? Should they not be allowed to leave Illinois?
Further, what the blue states subsidizing the red states argument conveniently leaves out in cost of living. It costs alot more to live in those blue cities and states than in red ones thus wages have to be higher thus they pay more taxes since its based on a percentage.
Maybe the blue areas wouldn’t pay so much in taxes if it didn’t cost so much to live there?
“Even a small starter home in an inexpensive suburb tends to have property taxes in the $8,000 – $10,000 range and by the time you factor in state income tax, you’re well over the $10,000 mark”
Also remember 40% of the country doesn’t own homes so screw them right? They don’t get to write off their allocation of property taxes in the rent they pay each month. Who cares about the poor though right? Can’t have upper middle class top 10% of homeowners upset though…..
Think about these past 15 months the same people whining about the SALT Cap are the same ones who didn’t lose their job, worked from home, saw a boom in their home equity value, and the stock market. They made out like a bandit.
On the flip side, the millions upon millions of people (mostly renters) that were deemed “non-essential” i.e. the help… pay taxes on their unemployment benefits and get no write-offs….
Yet the former is crying “overtaxed” and “not fair” when it comes to SALT CAP’s.
I merely pointed out that republicans have screwed over middle class tax payers. I know people who have been negatively impacted by the SALT cap and who are earning well under $100,000. It’s pretty easy to hit that limit. FFS, a friend of mine is making $50,000/year and pays nearly $10,000 in property taxes on a house she purchased for $150,000 during the downturn. When you look at the average taxpayer who benefits, I’m sure it does go to those who are wealthier (as do most deductions), but individuals are still being screwed over and then are told that they are “rich” and they shouldn’t mind paying a tax on top of a tax. It’s not the money. It’s the principle.
Trump used the SALT cap as a weapon against blue states. It had nothing to do with collecting more tax revenue to fund any programs. It was simply an f— you to those who despise him. I’m salty about the SALT cap because of the principle. If they had raised federal income taxes, I would have had no problem with it. Taxes should never have been lowered in my opinion.
“Also remember 40% of the country doesn’t own homes so screw them right?”
Does this even matter?
Most homeowners never itemized. Only the upper middle class people living in places like Chicago or NYC did. If you live in Nashville in your $200,000 house, you didn’t itemize. The standard deduction was more lucrative.
And especially now. The renters are making out. A single renter is now getting a $12,000 deduction. Married renters are getting $24,000.
People with the massive mortgages can’t imagine how everyone else lives. Lol.
“ FFS, a friend of mine is making $50,000/year and pays nearly $10,000 in property taxes on a house she purchased for $150,000 during the downturn.”
So your friends house assessed value has basically tripled and we should feel bad for reasons?
I didn’t say you should feel bad. My point is that the SALT cap impacts the middle class. It’s exhausting to continue to be told that the SALT cap only impacts the upper middle class/wealthy people. You’re just spewing republican talking points. Trump purposely did this to screw people over that despise him. I don’t know how it’s not obvious. Do you just love Trump or something? The only people who got screwed over were single people in high tax cities. I guess it’s OK to screw them over because you got your huge tax cut, right?
You don’t have to care or feel bad for anyone. It sounds like you don’t mind if lower middle class people end up moving out of Chicagoland. Who needs them anyway, right? On paper they could sell and then pocket their earnings. Maybe you think they should be genius investors who can put that money into the stock market and turn it into millions. Maybe you think they don’t deserve their homes because they aren’t earning enough money and screw them, force them out of their homes and make them move. You pocketed your tax cut after all. I’m also not sure where you expect them to move, especially when many people can’t work from home. I’m lucky my salary has kept up and I can afford my property taxes which have doubled (all the while getting no improvement to city services). Not everyone can afford that. Not everyone’s salary has kept up. Like I said, I’m happy to stay here, where I have civil rights and pay high taxes, but don’t tell me that Trump’s tax cut impacted everyone equally and that it wasn’t purposely designed to screw over those he didn’t like. Don’t tell me that people who I love should be forced from their homes because you have deemed them unworthy to stay in their homes.
” It’s exhausting to continue to be told that the SALT cap only impacts the upper middle class/wealthy people. You’re just spewing republican talking points.”
Yet Bernie Sanders and progressives don’t support it. Bernie Sanders quote the other day: “It sends a terrible, terrible message when you have Republicans telling us that this is a tax break for the rich”.
Heck just look at the democrat congressional representatives in Chicago and the burbs who are trying to thread the needle by raising the cap from $10K to $15K – Sean Casten and Lauren Underwood who represent some pretty wealthy suburbs but are not corporate democrats.
You know which Illinois Democrat Congressional Rep has been silent on this issue – none other than Mike Quigley, Bill Foster, and Brad Schneider. Ask yourself why….
Yes keep thinking it’s a “republican talking point.” The Democrats that are pushing this represent the wealthiest districts in the country and are part of the “old guard”…..
I guess you don’t believe in equity and fairness.
“It sounds like you don’t mind if lower middle class people end up moving out of Chicagoland.”
As i pointed out yesterday the median income of someone living in Cook County and median home value is not impacted by the cap….. but sure lets ignore that.
If you want to keep arguing this please show me the Sun Times or Trib article showing middle class taxpayers being pushed out of their home over the SALT CAP’s. What a joke. You have no credibility.
“Don’t tell me that people who I love should be forced from their homes”
Oh good lord here comes the pearl clutching….. It’s hard to take you seriously…
“but don’t tell me that Trump’s tax cut impacted everyone equally”
Did JB’s doubling of the gas tax impact everyone equally? Or was that a tax on the poor and middle class as gas taxes are regressive….
“that it wasn’t purposely designed to screw over those he didn’t like.”
Do you also feel this way about Pritzker’s budget closing certain “tax loopholes” on businesses in Illinois in the latest budget? Some of these loopholes where ones he personally campaigned on and reinstated back in 2019? Did he close these “loopholes” as a bleep you to the business community for being against the “fair tax”? I just want to make sure you are being consistent and not ridiculously partisan (i’m pretty sure i know my answer already though)…
So you have a friend that has an asset thats up 3X and you have one thats up 2X and you want a pity party? What is the actual impact ($) for the SALT cap?, especially someone making $50k/yr. Actual MC/LMC folks that live in Westlawn, Archer Heights, etc didnt see 3X appreciation and thus havent seen a spike in their Property Taxes
You must have went to the Sabrina School of creating strawmen.
“So your friends house assessed value has basically tripled and we should feel bad for reasons?”
Haha the pearl clutching is unbelievable. I was thinking the same thing but couldn’t stop laughing at her comment. No one is paying $10K in property taxes on a $150K home unless (i) they put a crap ton of money into it and (ii) it’s tripled or more in value which would mean she has a bunch of equity in the home and is thus not getting kicked out….. as she strangely claims.
It’s also bizarre that in none of her rants has she hasn’t identified where the cap should be at. So I assume she believes that there should be no cap. Which clearly shows you the gaslighting that she is doing. Let’s say it was a cap of $20K instead of $10K. You are seriously saying the difference between your friends staying in their home is paying ~$2 – $3K less in taxes per year?
I think your friends have bigger financial issues then SALT CAP’s as they are living in a $700K+ home….
“I’m lucky my salary has kept up and I can afford my property taxes which have doubled (all the while getting no improvement to city services)”
So your issue is with your local, county, and state officials for not budgeting responsibly over the past 20 – 30 years? Ok got it. Maybe take it up with them? These issues aren’t federal issues….
“Do you just love Trump or something”
LOL. Two days ago on this thread commenters said I was responsible for ruining the State because I was going after Rauner so much ( whose ideology is on par with Trump’s). Also stated my disgust for Trump’s China policy and inability to get anything done on repatriating overshore companies unlike what Biden and Congress recently passed on a bipartisan basis.
Now the Wealthy Liberals call me a Trump supporter for saying capping SALT Deductions was good policy.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!! I love it. Keep it coming please!
“I don’t think it’s fair to pay taxes on top of taxes. The federal government gets enough money from Illinois. They don’t need to get even more from us. The money we provide to the federal government ends up getting redistributed to poor red states.”
I never understood why any state and local taxes are deductible. It’s essentially a subsidy from low tax states to high tax states. Glad they finally limited it at least. And when people complain about redistributing money to red states my first thought is always “then why do they vote for politicians that like to redistribute money?”
Friend lives in the northern burbs and bought in 2011. The houses near her are going for about $400,000 now. For some reason, she was assessed $10,000, which is higher than the surrounding homes. She has appealed both with and without an attorney to no avail. The SALT cap won’t make a difference in whether she can stay or not. It’s the principle of the thing for me. Trump knew just how to twist that thorn against the so called “elites” who despise him.
I am not sure where people here think my friend is supposed to move. There is almost nothing on the market (either to buy or rent) that someone making $50,000/year can afford (near her workplace). Do you really think charging someone $10,000/year for a house that originally cost $150,000 is fair? Is everyone in that situation just supposed to sell and move so far from the office that the commute takes hours? My property taxes have doubled and that’s OK because I can afford it. I’m willing to pay high taxes to live in a blue city. Not everyone has that luxury.
” the 0.1% got a tax cut you should realize that they already disproportionately pay more taxes than any other group especially when considered through the lens of government services received vs government remittances ”
—————————————-
Your qualifier speaks volumes. The .1% increase their wealth through lobbying for tax breaks (carried interest, anyone?) and favoritism for their businesses. The value of the businesses increase enormously, increasing the WEALTH of the .1%, which is irrelevant to their income. Taxes, however, are based on income.
So in terms of the “services rendered” by the federal government, I challenge your statement that the .1% pay “disproportionately” more taxes for what they get.
Oh, and the wealth? That gets taxed at a reduced rate upon death — if you had lousy estate planning advice and have to pay estate taxes at all — AFTER something like $11 million goes to your heirs free of charge. Figure that into the value of “services rendered” the wealthy receive before you repeat your “disproportionately pay more taxes” comment.
“Friend lives in the northern burbs and bought in 2011. The houses near her are going for about $400,000 now. For some reason, she was assessed $10,000, which is higher than the surrounding homes. She has appealed both with and without an attorney to no avail. The SALT cap won’t make a difference in whether she can stay or not. It’s the principle of the thing for me. Trump knew just how to twist that thorn against the so called “elites” who despise him.”
So her house is theoretically worth >$400k and the SALT Cap doesnt mater and you’re whining about what exactly? You dont like Trump?
The House isnt worth $150k now, its worth >$400k. Its not the SALT Cap she should be pissed at, its the folks setting the taxes
“I am not sure where people here think my friend is supposed to move. There is almost nothing on the market (either to buy or rent) that someone making $50,000/year can afford (near her workplace). Do you really think charging someone $10,000/year for a house that originally cost $150,000 is fair? Is everyone in that situation just supposed to sell and move so far from the office that the commute takes hours? My property taxes have doubled and that’s OK because I can afford it. I’m willing to pay high taxes to live in a blue city. Not everyone has that luxury.”
JFC Shes got > $300k in equity. Que up the worlds smallest violin…
Its not that difficult, sell house, buy a $300k home. No P&I, just taxes. Or I hate to say it, maybe she cant afford a home on $50k and should just take the windfall and rent. Hell, shes got around 10 years of rent covered from the sale. Your argument makes no sense
“I am not sure where people here think my friend is supposed to move. There is almost nothing on the market (either to buy or rent) that someone making $50,000/year can afford (near her workplace). Do you really think charging someone $10,000/year for a house that originally cost $150,000 is fair? Is everyone in that situation just supposed to sell and move so far from the office that the commute takes hours?”
The alternative is that everyone gets taxed on the basis of what they paid for the property – like CA. That creates a whole new set of problems. People can’t afford to ever move, inventory is perpetually tight, and home prices skyrocket.
The fact of the matter is that if your home triples in value maybe you really should consider moving. Would you buy it at that price today? If not then you should sell. That’s exactly how I look at my house. Nobody is entitled to live in one place forever. I choose not to live in high cost areas.
Johnc,
Let’s not try to debate what value different people get out of the government. The fact of the matter is that higher income people pay a greater percentage of their income in taxes than do lower income people. So when a tax cut happens it’s hard for them to not save more money than lower income people – unless the tax cut is specifically targeted at lower income people.
As for wealth…estate tax serves a useful purpose in making sure that wealth doesn’t get stuck in the hands of the same families for generations. But in terms of providing a revenue source for the government it’s not something the government is entitled to. That wealth has already been taxed once. It’s what is left over after they paid their taxes.
“The reason for the Illinois bond upgrade is because of covid-relief money from the federal government.”
Umm no. This is not recurring revenue. State Revenue YTD – May 2021 was up $6 Billion EXCLUDING Federal money compared to 2020. Even after you back out the delayed tax filing to July FY 2021 revenues up $4.7 Billion. … Mendoza has been paying down the bill backlog before Covid money was even approved.
I can’t find in your link where “State Revenue YTD – May 2021 was up $6 Billion excluding Federal money compared to 2020.”
But page 5 of your link says “base receipts are up a stunning $6.988 billion. In addition to a surge in federal sources, that growth….”
Is it your view that Illinois’ credit rating upgrade is due NOT to the “stunning” $7 bb increase in income tax receipts — that your link attributes to “a surge in federal sources” that HD likewise called “covid-relief money from the federal government” — but is due instead to “Mendoza paying down the bill backlog [from] before Covid money was even approved”?
Gary, I think a better alternative is to offer the senior freeze to low income people of all ages. Then, you still get money from middle class people, but low income people aren’t forced from their homes.
It’s difficult to move when the surrounding areas also saw huge price jumps.
In terms of the wealth tax, who cares if the previous “owner” of that money already paid taxes on it? Someone paid taxes on the used car I bought when it was new. I also had to pay taxes on it when I bought it. When I sell it, the next person will also pay taxes on it. It should be the same for inherited wealth. If someone is fortunate enough to inherit money, paying some tax on it seems fair and would make our society a little more equitable. I say this as someone who has received gifts from family. I should have had to pay income tax on that windfall.
“The SALT cap won’t make a difference in whether she can stay or not.”
And there it is. I’m glad we finally got to the crux.
“It’s the principle of the thing for me. Trump knew just how to twist that thorn against the so called “elites” who despise him.”
This isn’t a principal thing. This is called politics and forming a majority to approve policy agendas. It’s really this simple. With most policy changes it’s not a zero sum game but there are always winners and losers. A politician winning an election and then getting into office designing policy to appease areas of the country were they received <30% support would be politically stupid.
It's the same reason why Nancy Pelosi (San Fran), Chuck Schumer (New York), and plenty of NY, CA, VA, NJ, and CT dem politicians want to restore the full deductions. Democrats in the house represent the 20 wealthiest districts in the country. Also, if you look at the States they are represented by only Democrat Senators.
https://www.creators.com/read/terence-jeffrey/12/18/party-of-the-rich-democrats-hold-the-20-wealthiest-congressional-districts
Jenny, govt should not have any claim to your money. Some of you are far to comfortable allowing govt to confiscate your money. I don’t have an issue paying a reasonable amount of taxes to fund necessary govt services, but at the same time, govt also doesn’t efficiently spend what they do collect so I have a problem with them constantly coming back asking for more.
We don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem. Govt taxes are like your best friend robbing you at gun point because he claims he needs $2k to cover the rent, but he is pulling up to your house in the new car he just bought.
” offer the senior freeze to low income people of all ages”
Nope. Gotta tie that shit to income PLUS assets for the seniors, too. AND it should be a deferral, rather than just straight exemption. It’s waaaaaay too easy to abuse as it stands now.
” My property taxes have doubled and that’s OK because I can afford it. I’m willing to pay high taxes to live in a blue city.”
I think everyone’s property taxes have doubled over the past ~10 years if you own a home in Chicago or the surrounding suburbs. Why is that? State and local politicians representing both parties decided not to fund pensions year after year after year. This is what Illinoisans voted for and the bill has finally come due in part thanks to the poorly designed Edgar Ramp.
Further, at the State Level State Politicians in both parties do not want to be voting on tax increases so they continuously cut the Local Government Distributive Fund over the past decade thus specifically suburban areas have less revenue coming in and limited levers to pull which is further compounded if they don’t have a thriving commercial/services sector generating sales/events/use taxes. So they pull the only lever that they can which is an increase in property taxes to make up for the cuts.
Further, the State continued to cut funding for local schools thus the local district needs to make that up through you guessed it more property tax increases.
The Evidenced Based Model that was signed into law under Rauner (which was generally good) allowed Chicago to raise its property taxes by roughly five percent overall, resulting in an average 2.5 percent increase per homeowner expected to generate an additional $125 million. It did however shift some of CPS pension issue onto the State and thus everyone pays for it.
Pritzker continues to raise pension costs on Chicago taxpayers which will lead to higher property taxes as he signed the Firefighter Pension Bill this year adding $800 Million in unfunded liabilities.
The Cook County Forest Preserve got approval from the Cook County Board of Commissionaires to add a ballot question for next years election to increase property taxes on residents to increase funding for the forest preserve.
There’s another bill on JB’s desk currently that the Tribune says will allow local taxing bodies to make up property tax refunds through higher property taxes.
This is what the voters voted for over decades and decades and continue to vote for today.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-illinois-tax-law-changes-pritzker-20210625-2kknbrbafndbniru256vgns6mm-story.html
“So in terms of the “services rendered” by the federal government, I challenge your statement that the .1% pay “disproportionately” more taxes for what they get.”
JohnC agree with your statement. The ProPublica reports that have come out on the 0.1% recently are the exact reason why these “loopholes” SALT, Carried Interest, Homeowners Interest, backdoor roth, etc. need to be severely curtailed/capped or eliminated.
The political class is also more concerned about the leak then they are the substance. Both are important but what they reveal is disturbing when Jeff Bezos is claiming $4K Child Tax Credits.
Or the recent revelation of Peter Theil putting Palantir shares (before it went public) into a roth IRA valued at $2,000 which is now worth $5,000,000,000 and will never pay a dime in taxes. He hasn’t contributed a dime since 1999. It’s all appreciation.
https://www.propublica.org/article/the-secret-irs-files-trove-of-never-before-seen-records-reveal-how-the-wealthiest-avoid-income-tax
“The fact of the matter is that higher income people pay a greater percentage of their income in taxes than do lower income people.
. . .
That wealth has already been taxed once. It’s what is left over after they paid their taxes.
——————————-
Wrong on both counts, Gary. Warren Buffett has already said that his percentage of income paid in taxes is lower than his secretary’s, because most of his income is in the form of capital gains taxes on stocks he sold during any given year. Ditto with “carried interest” for hedge fund managers taking billions a year home in income.
As for wealth being what’s left over after paying taxes: Nope. Unrealized capital gains count as wealth and can be borrowed against to finance one’s living expenses. That’s how Bezos and the rest of Silicon Valley do it. Never taxed because there’s been no taxable event and we don’t have a general wealth tax (nor should we, but that’s a different issue).
Paying estate taxes is usually the result of piss poor estate planning, and don’t forget the $11 million head start you can give to your heirs tax free.
In the end, I’m willing to put up with this corrupt state and the pension woes that it brought on itself because I feel emotionally safe in a blue city, in a blue state. I can’t say the same for living in Texas or Indiana or a host of other low cost, red states. It should not be like this. We should have rights no matter where we live, but this is our current reality. The choice is to put up with high taxes or move somewhere less safe.
“I can’t find in your link where “State Revenue YTD – May 2021 was up $6 Billion excluding Federal money compared to 2020.”
But page 5 of your link says “base receipts are up a stunning $6.988 billion. In addition to a surge in federal sources, that growth…”
Look at page 7. Total State Sources of Revenue of $41Bn YTD compared to $35Bn last year. Then below that total shows federal sources which is up $2Bn.
Back on page 5 “Through May, combined net income tax receipts are up $5.024 billion. While approximately$1.3 billion of those gains are to be attributed to the shift of FY 2020 final payments into early FY 2021,
despite repeated upward revisions, strong income tax performance continues to meet and outpace expectations.”
Back out the $1.3Bn income tax receipts are still up $3.7Bn this year compared to last. That’s not the Feds.
Also not the Feds: “Also viewed positively is the continued upward trend of sales tax receipts as net receipts are up $860 million.”
Now your increase is $4.6Bn.
“Gary, I think a better alternative is to offer the senior freeze to low income people of all ages. Then, you still get money from middle class people, but low income people aren’t forced from their homes.”
See Sun Times report from Monday that dropped like a bomb. The Senior Freeze needs serious reform as again all it does is help super wealthy people as no one is verifying eligibility or income. $250 million in property taxes getting shifted to everyone else just because.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/6/25/22549463/senior-freeze-homestead-exemption-tax-program-errors-fritz-kaegi-barbara-kaplan-martin-israel
“The choice is to put up with high taxes or move somewhere less safe.”
—————————–
Safe from what, Jenny? Corruption? Illinois is the most corrupt state in the union. Violent crime? Chicago is number one in gun crime in the country, and at or close to the top in all other violent crimes.
Safe from rednecks?
“Warren Buffett has already said that his percentage of income paid in taxes is lower than his secretary’s, because most of his income is in the form of capital gains taxes on stocks he sold during any given year. Ditto with “carried interest” for hedge fund managers taking billions a year home in income.”
So based on those anecdotal data points you’ve concluded that high income people pay a lower percent of their income in taxes? The data says otherwise. Look at the average tax rate by income percentile. https://taxfoundation.org/publications/latest-federal-income-tax-data/
“Umm no. This is not recurring revenue. State Revenue YTD – May 2021 was up $6 Billion EXCLUDING Federal money compared to 2020. Even after you back out the delayed tax filing to July FY 2021 revenues up $4.7 Billion.”
Okay so you are using Y/Y comparisons to 2020 to try to make your point? Sounds like their covid-recovery forecasting was just egregiously off from the start. Who can blame them but then again even without the pandemic I’d bet their forecasting would be egregiously off. It’s not like state employees get fired for blowing FP&A forecasts in normal times, and nobody does in pandemic times.
The bond upgrade was likely due to three factors then I’ll concede: 1) revenue projections being terribly off from pandemic recovery 2) fed bailout funds used to repay debt backlog via shifting money around & 3) Moody’s wanting to do more business with the state of Illinois.
My money is mostly on 2 & 3.
“Paying estate taxes is usually the result of piss poor estate planning, and don’t forget the $11 million head start you can give to your heirs tax free.”
Please explain the exact strategy that will allow Bezos’wealth to NEVER be taxed. And don’t make vague references to trusts. There is a reason that the uber-wealthy give so much to charity. Not only do they not need all of it but they don’t want the government wasting it.
“Safe from r**n**s?”
This pejorative racist term and the word and h*******ies may get you banned from this site, and rightfully so.
“Paying estate taxes is usually the result of piss poor estate planning, and don’t forget the $11 million head start you can give to your heirs tax free.”
Good thing Gov Fatfucks daddy was smart or him and shitbird penny would be on the street
“Please explain the exact strategy that will allow Bezos’ wealth to NEVER be taxed. And don’t make vague references to trusts.”
———————————–
Trusts, Gary, Trusts. I know something about estate planning. As for donations, the rich do it for two reasons: enhance reputations, and fund pet projects.
As for your link, it only goes to earned income. Realized capital gains and the like are taxed at lower rates
“Trusts, Gary, Trusts. I know something about estate planning. As for donations, the rich do it for two reasons: enhance reputations, and fund pet projects.”
Knew you were going to try to play the trust card. That’s why I said don’t just tell me trusts. Tell me what kind of trust allows an uber rich person to pass all their money tax free to future generations.
“As for your link, it only goes to earned income. Realized capital gains and the like are taxed at lower rates”
No. It covers AGI.
“Gary, I think a better alternative is to offer the senior freeze to low income people of all ages. Then, you still get money from middle class people, but low income people aren’t forced from their homes.”
The fundamental problem is that property taxes are a terrible way to raise revenue. It’s essentially a wealth tax and it ignores one’s ability to pay. So it forces some people to liquidate their wealth. The solution is not to carve out special interest groups but to fix the fundamental flaw. Taxing income is better than taxing wealth but taxing spending is even better than taxing income. And you can exempt spending for food, health care, and reasonable housing costs. If someone has the ability to spend then they have the ability to pay.
Whenever you reduce the tax burden on a group of people you eliminate their incentive to reform bad government. It creates a free rider problem.
“Tell me what kind of trust allows an uber rich person to pass all their money tax free to future generations.”
——————————–
All it has to do is go to the next generation. Rule against Perpetuities kicks in after that.
There’s also ways of gaming the system, like Mitt Romney has done: Set up a family foundation, make donations to foundation, have foundation hire sons and daughters at exhorbitant salaries and presto — wealth transfer with only one income tax paid, and that by recipient.
The family that founded IKEA has a notorious foundation in that regard.
“Who can blame them but then again even without the pandemic I’d bet their forecasting would be egregiously off.”
This isn’t forecasting. This is YTD revenue received through May…… Remember the States Fiscal Year ends June 30.
“Please explain the exact strategy that will allow Bezos’wealth to NEVER be taxed.”
He uses leverage to fund his lifestyle and doesn’t sell assets. Also has a commercial real estate portfolio which he depreciates. I imagine Blue Origin is also a pretty good tax effective asset. Trusts are a big one as well.
“Tell me what kind of trust allows an uber rich person to pass all their money tax free to future generations.”
Dynasty Trusts and Generational Skipping Trusts. You literally set-up dozens of them at fund them to the $11.6 million limit.
There’s also Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts which allow the Grantor to receive a tax free income from each year.
You can use Donor Advised Funds or Charitable Trusts to the non-profits you created/run.
“Rule against Perpetuities”
Never thought I would see that term on this blog.
As for the trusts, much of these funds go off-shore to countries without rules against perpetuities or really any meaningful rules at all. These tax havens look the other way and are happy to take their filing and administrative fees.
Maybe we should look at little closer to home at the finances of the Fat Man Good to discover the way they cheat the system…
https://www.icij.org/investigations/paradise-papers/paradise-papers-help-reveal-jb-pritzkers-offshore-connections/
The long lines at the Elston DMV are long because JB Pritzker doesn’t pay IL tax on his off-shore trust income.
Our state, county and city parks are decrepit and in disrepair because JB Pritzker’s money is in the Cayman Islands and Panama…
Your real estate taxes are $10,000+ a year because JB Pritzker removed the toilets from his mansion to claim the house was uninhabitable…
CPS are atrocious because JB Pritzker isn’t paying his fair share of Chicago taxes….doesn’t his family live in Palm Beach, close to the former Gov?
“Moody’s wanting to do more business with the state of Illinois.”
What would that business be?
If Illinois issues bonds, Moody’s gets paid, yes, but if Illinois issues 10x more bonds, it’s still just a rounding error for Moody’s (and it’s not really IL that gets to choose whether Moody’s gets paid or not).
What else do they have to sell that a state government would buy?
“h*******ies”
AFAIK the cause of the only comment of mine deleted here.
“The family that founded IKEA has a notorious foundation in that regard.”
WTF does that have to do with the American tax system?
You do realize that other countries have different laws, right?
“Safe from what, Jenny? Corruption? Illinois is the most corrupt state in the union. Violent crime? Chicago is number one in gun crime in the country, and at or close to the top in all other violent crimes.
Safe from rednecks?”
I don’t want to be around people who fly Confederate flags, Trump flags, thin blue line flags, etc. These are all hate symbols and I know I am unwelcome to this segment of the population. I prefer not to spend time near Q supporters who seem to think that people like me drink the blood of babies. I want to have access to the medications I need to stay healthy and if I a need medical procedure, that someone else’s religion doesn’t bar me from that. I would prefer not to live someplace where people with assault rifles are allowed to take over the state capitol and threaten the governor. Basically, I don’t feel safe around republicans and try to avoid them whenever possible.
“I don’t want to be around people who fly Confederate flags, Trump flags, thin blue line flags, etc. These are all hate symbols and I know I am unwelcome to this segment of the population. I prefer not to spend time near Q supporters who seem to think that people like me drink the blood of babies. I want to have access to the medications I need to stay healthy and if I a need medical procedure, that someone else’s religion doesn’t bar me from that. I would prefer not to live someplace where people with assault rifles are allowed to take over the state capitol and threaten the governor. Basically, I don’t feel safe around republicans and try to avoid them whenever possible.”
Its impressive you should shove so much virtue signaling in one paragraph
““The family that founded IKEA has a notorious foundation in that regard.”
WTF does that have to do with the American tax system?
You do realize that other countries have different laws, right?”
—————————-
Nothing to do with the American tax system, but not alien to it either. Just an example of how thorough tax planning — under any system — can avoid taxes.
” Basically, I don’t feel safe around republicans and try to avoid them whenever possible.”
———————————
But you DO feel safe when some thug sticks a gun in your face and says “I want DuSable Drive! And your wallet!!”
jenny feels safe in a blue city with a high rate of crime because why again? I’m so confused what the fuck she’s trying to say other than she’s been completely brainwashed by liberal media or her libtarded friends.
also re: ikea–the foundation is actually a foundation, for which his sons do not work. they are all Billionaires based on what they were given, but the large majority of the Kamprad fortune is in a legit foundation.
“Its impressive you should shove so much virtue signaling in one paragraph”
This is why jenny is going to pay more and more in taxes until she decides to leave Illinois. She will of course blame it on something other than Illinois’ political climate as that would force her to fess up that she has contributed to the problem with her voting habits.
“Basically, I don’t feel safe around republicans and try to avoid them whenever possible.”
How incredibly ignorant. It’s the same as republicans and Trumpkins complaining about Antifa or being afraid of Bernie Bros who shot congressional republicans during the softball game a few years back. That Bernie Bro was from Illinois FWIW.
Do you have the same fear and contempt of them as you do as the people who had A/R’s at the Michigan Capitol?
I think you need to turn off MSBNC and Rachel Maddow just like the Trumpsters need to tune out OAN/FOX/NewsMax.
“I prefer not to spend time near Q supporters who seem to think that people like me drink the blood of babies.”
No one with a brain actually believes this. This Q stuff is Facebook trolling at it’s finest sucking in mentally disturbed people or used as propaganda/ratings for MSNBC for the white upper class brunch club liberals that have no one in their life with a different view as them. Nor do they have anyone in their life that isn’t in the same upper echelon socio-economic class.
What you literally just wrote is you think you are better than at least half the country over an effective binary choice in one election. There were (and are) plenty of reasons to vote against Joe Biden as their were plenty of reasons to vote against Donald Trump.
There’s alot of rot in both parties as well. Before casting stones on the “others” or “deplorables” might want to look inward as to why half the country doesn’t see things your way. The same can be said for the Trumpsters and republicans.
“Basically, I don’t feel safe around republicans and try to avoid them whenever possible.”
Jenny stay in Logan Square. I live in Roscoe Village and good rivers make good neighbors. Around 25% of city residents vote Republican jenny and you can only minimize proximity to them by living in the Woketariat Democratic People’s Republic of Logan Square. You can hang out sunning your pasty white body with all of the other pieces of nihilistic post-modern human wreckage in Logan Square park. Better get some piercings in weird places and some non-natural hair coloring and arm tattoos. Maybe adopt a pit bull too because the shelters are overflowing with them because people that don’t share your complexion breed them for fighting and never make the connection that you are helping clean up the trash the orcs who bred them for fighting created.
You can pick your pronouns from a lengthy list every single day there I heard. You can even dream about potential abortions you might need one day and how safe you will be to get such imagined scenarios in the future.
Jenny you can also hang out in Palmer Square Park and even Humboldt Park. But if in Humboldt Park you see people like me setting off fireworks and feel empowered to call the police as two post-wall lesbians did a couple years ago (and who likely wouldn’t dare do so if my complexion were darker) you need to know the the Chicago Police are not coming to respond to your complaint once you’ve clearly identified the noises as fireworks and not gunshots. I had a good time laughing at those lesbians with my friends who obviously expected the same level of services from their local police department as one might find in Niles or Skokie, for instance (likely where said lesbians hailed from). I’m sure CPD told them they have two squads of detectives downtown working the case.
” I can’t say the same for living in Texas or Indiana or a host of other low cost, red states.”
You realize that Houston, Dallas, and Austin are “blue cities”. This is more ignorant thinking like when Trumpsters and republicans bag on California even though it’s the State with the most republican votes in the country. More people voted for Trump in California than for Trump in Texas.
Yet you would “feel safer” in California because it’s “blue”.
Remember when Democrats would or could win states like Iowa, Ohio, heck even Indiana over the past 10 – 15 years? Democrats actually had US Senators elected statewide from Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana up until the past 10 years. What happened?
Heck look at the 1996 Illinois Presidential Map. Democrats racked up the vote count downstate. What happened?
Lets go back further, West Virginia and Kentucky were reliably blue for ~100 years up until the turn of the century. What happened?
Remember that Illinois was a swing state a generation ago. In the last 10 years had a republican governor and republican US Senator. Are you moving out of Illinois if that happens again?
Just want to make sure you are consistent and not just an ignorant shill.
“What happened? ”
The Blue Team went off the deep end crazy, and the Red Team has been pretty much where they’ve always been. Confirmed by Pew back in 2017:
https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2017/10/05162647/10-05-2017-Political-landscape-release.pdf
The Chart on Page 12 showing how extreme Jenny’s side has come was shared widely on social media a few years back.
And with deep end crazy comes great Chicago/Cook County policies like:
~94 people current charged with murder being on electronic monitoring
~534 people currently shared with shooting other people currently on electronic monitoring
~State Attorney’s refusal to prosecute shoplifting less than $1,000
~State Attorney’s refusal to prosecute for most drug possession, prostitution, trespassing or other ‘crimes of poverty’
~State Atttorey’s refusal to prosecute supposedly non-violent gun offenders
And now Jenny believes that Qanon supporters are more of a threat to her safety and well-being than the out-on-bond predators roaming her neighborhood.
our two sides no longer even live in the same reality
” but the large majority of the Kamprad fortune is in a legit foundation.”
—————————-
If I remember reading the Economist correctly, the purpose of the foundation was to promote the appreciation of furniture. It’s been several years, though.
“Basically, I don’t feel safe around republicans and try to avoid them whenever possible.”
“This Q stuff is Facebook trolling at it’s finest sucking in mentally disturbed people or used as propaganda/ratings for MSNBC”
I live in a super blue zone. Over the past year or so, within a half mile of our house, I’ve been behind at least a few vehicles with a Q sticker on the back (one just the other day). No idea whether they live nearby or were just working in the hood or passing through, but it’s bizarre. I’d honestly like to chat with one sometime. Every Saturday for weeks before the 2020 election, a Trump bus would park in the corner of the Target lot, and about 30 folks would be gathered; they’d have grills cooking, waiving Trump flags, and seemed be thriving on all of the honking and middle fingers directed their way (not sure what the campaign value of those efforts was). There’s one guy who turns up now and again at our local grocery store (at least before the mass shooting closure) and brewery, who struts around in a MAGA hat or sleeveless Trump shirt, or an “I oil my AR-15 with liberal tears” shirt. You can tell he’s trying to get a rise out of people. With him and the other rare Trumpist sightings around town (and more so in the mountain towns), it’s always a little jarring at first, but I just tell the kids not to stare and we try and ignore them. Can you imagine during, say, the Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush or Obama years, seeing an apparent supporter of one of those presidents (not that people back then tended to wear shirts/hats after an election was over, let alone have flags with their guy’s name on it, but that’s another topic altogether), and telling your kids to avert their eyes?
“All it has to do is go to the next generation. Rule against Perpetuities kicks in after that.
There’s also ways of gaming the system, like Mitt Romney has done: Set up a family foundation, make donations to foundation, have foundation hire sons and daughters at exhorbitant salaries and presto — wealth transfer with only one income tax paid, and that by recipient.”
Sounds like “and then a miracle occurs”. Why haven’t you named the trust vehicle that allows this? This is how these conversations always go. Someone refers to this imaginary trust that allows all this good stuff to happen. Even if you could pass it to the next generation it would get taxed on the next generation. There is no escaping estate taxes. And if you set up that foundation then a) you are giving money to charity so that bleeds off a huge chunk of your wealth and b) your heirs have to pay income tax on those exorbitant salaries.
No one with a brain actually believes this.
This poll finds that 23% of Republicans agree with the statement: the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation
https://www.prri.org/research/qanon-conspiracy-american-politics-report/
(as an aside, one thing the Q cult gets right is that pedophilia is far more widespread than is typically acknowledged. Most pedophiles are not satan-worshipping global elites, though. Most of them are family members, friends of the family, coaches, teachers, and religious leaders.)
“He uses leverage to fund his lifestyle and doesn’t sell assets. Also has a commercial real estate portfolio which he depreciates.”
But when he dies those assets are taxable. And depreciation eventually gets recaptured.
Madeline,
Republicans also believe that Obama was a muslim:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2010/09/13/republicans-believe-obama-is-a-muslim/
But this requires you to trust the results of the pollsters given that most republicans wont’ talk to them, and many will lie to them anyways. If some pollster asked me if Joe Biden was a lizard space alien, I’d tell them ‘most definitely’ – just like the annony’s neighbors who wear shirts to purpose rile up his community. Of course I don’t really believe this but its fun to watch the pearl clutching…
“tax receipts are still up $3.7Bn this year compared to last. That’s not the Feds.”
By your logic, since the uptick in sales- and income-tax receipts, which occurred while unemployment soared, is “not [due to] the Feds”, we all should hope the Delta variant forces a second statewide shutdown precipitating equal or greater job losses, since it’d produce more non-Federal-government-assistance-related gains to Illinois’ coffers like those wrought by covid-19.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ILUR
How would you rebut this guy who claims Illinois’ upgrade owes more to $138 billion in federal assistance than to Mendoza’s bill-paying skills? What does he get wrong?
https://wirepoints.org/illinois-gets-its-first-credit-upgrade-in-20-years-it-took-138-billion-in-federal-relief-for-it-to-happen-wirepoints/
That wirepoints oped appeared in yesterday’s Tribune. I wish you’d write the Trib a letter telling them what you told HD: “Umm, no….”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-edit-illinois-credit-upgrade-federal-bailout-20210701-mccvijig6fbuzpuhmc4eorkobm-story.html
“the purpose of the foundation was to promote the appreciation of furniture.”
And…??????
You suggested that he passed the fortune to his progeny via the use of a foundation. Which is incorrect. Akin to saying that Nobel funded a foundation to avoid inheritance tax.
It seems that the fortune he passed to his children was done via (perhaps undervalued) transfers of assets/payment streams to an entity controlled by his kids–ie, a method available to anyone, not just inheritance tax avoiders.
“This poll finds that 23% of Republicans agree with the statement: the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation”
your poll is complete BS. Just look at the findings.
“Accounting for everything else, Hispanic Catholics (2.9) and Hispanic Protestants (2.7) are about three times more likely than the religiously unaffiliated to be QAnon believers. Similarly, white Catholics (1.8), white evangelical Protestants (1.6), and white mainline Protestants (1.6) are nearly twice as likely as the religiously unaffiliated to be QAnon believers.”
The control group is athiests…. what a joke. Also based on the findings you and Jenny are more scared of Hispanic Catholics than White Evangelicals? Or anyone that affiliates with an organized religion?
Look at the profile of the CEO, Founder and owner of PRRI: His own bio on the website:
“He is the author of “White Too Long: The Legacy of White Supremacy in American Christianity,” and “The End of White Christian America,” which won the 2019 Grawemeyer Award in Religion. Jones writes regularly on politics, culture, and religion for The Atlantic online, NBC Think, and other outlets. He is frequently featured in major national media, such as CNN, MSNBC, NPR, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and others.”
Yeah no bias from this fake news pollster…… How do you actually trust this crap? Oh I know i’m a liberal and I believe in credentials and he is credentialed. And on top of that he is a Dr. so I believe in science blah blah blah…. Good lord (oh wait didn’t mean to say “lord”).
https://www.prri.org/staff/robert-p-jones-ph-d/
Correction, 534 people on electronic monitoring for possessing weapons, not shooting people…
Per Supt Brown…
“Dynasty Trusts and Generational Skipping Trusts. You literally set-up dozens of them at fund them to the $11.6 million limit.
There’s also Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts which allow the Grantor to receive a tax free income from each year.
You can use Donor Advised Funds or Charitable Trusts to the non-profits you created/run.”
Thanks for providing specifics. Giving money to charity does not allow you to pass your fortune on to your heirs. Yeah, you can pass a portion of it along if I remember correctly but you essentially replace estate tax with charitable giving.
I’m not familiar with all the ins and outs of GRATs but it sounds like there are plenty of nuances. The grantor essentially gets back what they put in so there is no avoidance of estate tax on that amount. The real benefit is in transferring the appreciation to the next generation. But then that will get taxed when they die.
As for the dynasty trust…how can you set up dozens of 11.6 MM trusts without tax consequences?
“[income] tax receipts are still up $3.7Bn this year compared to last. That’s not [due to] the Feds.”
Personal incomes soared 17%, during a recession in which unemployment doubled. Nothing remotely like that has ever occurred in prior recessions. Why did personal incomes increase in this downturn, since in your view the uptick in income-tax receipts is not due to the Feds?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Fa3n
Illinois personal incomes:
2020-01-01 757335.3
2020-04-01 824807.7
2020-07-01 808753.3
2020-10-01 786605.6
2021-01-01 884539.7
If I saw a bunch of klansman strutting around my area, I would leave. I see the confederate flag, trump flag, etc. as being the same as strutting about wearing a kkk hood. The visceral reaction is fear. I assume this person is armed and not afraid to use their gun or possibly run me over with their car. I am Jewish by ancestry and assume they want me dead. At least with the gang violence, they don’t specifically want to kill me.
The republican party is completely devolved since Trump. In the past, we could disagree about taxes or spending on programs, but not anymore. I don’t personally identify with democrats because having lived in this corrupt city, my opinion of the party is very low.
Q is scarily good at manipulating people and I fear for this country because of it. It is not helpful that many elected republicans play into it in an attempt to get votes. It’s especially not helpful that congressional districts have been so gerrymandered that we end up with a majority of extreme politicians (on both sides) who can’t agree on anything.
…note to Bob, it’s really assholish to set off fireworks in a populated area. The animals in the area are terrified and it can set off anyone with PTSD. Based on your post it sounds like you are doing it purposely to annoy your neighbors.
Also based on the findings you and Jenny are more scared of Hispanic Catholics than White Evangelicals?
Where did I say I was afraid of anyone?
“As for the dynasty trust…how can you set up dozens of 11.6 MM trusts without tax consequences”
One for each of your kids, their kids, other family members, close friends, etc.
here’s an article from this week in Bloomberg on Biden’s Treasury department potentially updating tax rules on Dynasty and Generational Skipping Trusts.
“Biden’s so-called “Green Book,” the Treasury document laying out these details, specifically takes aim at dynasty trusts — vehicles that are able to exist for generations without incurring gift, estate, or generation-skipping transfer taxes.”
“Biden’s proposed plan would also charge a capital gains tax when assets are transferred into, or distributed from, certain kinds of trusts. A Treasury official said that aspect of the plan specifically targets tools like the intentionally defective grantor trust — a common, if complicated, technique that can allow the wealthy to move money out of their taxable estates to benefit heirs.”
“In any case, the proposal to tax property transfers into and out of trusts “would significantly change several current planning techniques”
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-tax-report/biden-targets-two-weapons-the-richest-0-1-use-to-avoid-taxes
NYT’s article after the 2016 election on the left increased belief in conspiracies. Now in 2021 replace democrat with republican it’s literally the same article….
“But since the election, there has been a noticeable increase in the flow of dubious and unsupported claims among liberals. One widely circulated post on Medium portrayed the Trump administration’s fumbling rollout of a travel ban in late January as an elaborate “trial balloon for a coup d’état.” Brooke Binkowski, managing editor at the rumor-tracking site Snopes, recently told The Atlantic that she has been seeing more false reports aimed at liberals or from liberal sources — “a lot of dubious news, a lot of wishful-thinking-type stuff.”
“Even some prominent liberals like Robert Reich, the former Secretary of Labor under Bill Clinton, seem open to conspiracy theories of the sort typically espoused by figures like Alex Jones and Glenn Beck. (After the recent violent demonstration at the University of California at Berkeley, Mr. Reich raised the possibility that the far right “was in cahoots” with the agitators, writing a blog post titled “A Yiannopoulos, Bannon, Trump Plot to Control American Universities?”)”
“In a survey administered by Survey Sampling International immediately after the election (Nov. 7-10), Democrats’ conspiracy scores increased significantly compared with a previous survey in July, especially on the “people who really ‘run’ the country” item.”
“In other words, losing the presidential election made Democrats more likely to blame secret conspiracies for the state of the world, while making Republicans less willing to indulge these sorts of claims.”
Sound familiar? Also, It’s been almost 5 years and Hillary still doesn’t believe she lost in 2016. It’s Russia, Russia, Russia….
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/15/upshot/why-more-democrats-are-now-embracing-conspiracy-theories.html
“your heirs have to pay income tax on those exorbitant salaries.”
———————-
That’s not taxing you, or your estate, now is it. Bezos and his ilk can design things so that they do not pay estate taxes on their wealth, and little (relatively) on their earned income while alive. That Mitt Romney’s kids have to pay income taxes is not Mitt paying it. And the kids are getting wealth transfers at the price of a single income tax payment each year. And even that can be offset by depreciation allowances on real estate if they are using that vehicle of investment.
“That’s not taxing you, or your estate, now is it. Bezos and his ilk can design things so that they do not pay estate taxes on their wealth, and little (relatively) on their earned income while alive. That Mitt Romney’s kids have to pay income taxes is not Mitt paying it. And the kids are getting wealth transfers at the price of a single income tax payment each year. And even that can be offset by depreciation allowances on real estate if they are using that vehicle of investment.”
The myth I’m trying to dispel is that zillionaires can pass all their wealth along to future generations without ever paying taxes on it. If their heirs pay income tax on it then the wealth transfer has been taxed. QED. And depreciation eventually gets recaptured.
“One for each of your kids, their kids, other family members, close friends, etc.”
Speaking strictly about the Dynasty trust… it doesn’t matter how many trusts you have or how many kids you have. You get a total of one $11.6 MM exemption. Anything beyond that is taxed. Right? If this is not true then I’d like to see the reference.
“The myth I’m trying to dispel is that zillionaires can pass all their wealth along to future generations without ever paying taxes on it.”
===========================
You can get it down to your grandchildren easy enough. After that 75 years or so, the wealth probably starts getting taxed. Not too sure about even then, though.
“…note to Bob, it’s really assholish to set off fireworks in a populated area. The animals in the area are terrified and it can set off anyone with PTSD. Based on your post it sounds like you are doing it purposely to annoy your neighbors.”
I’m not concerned if people like you think I’m an asshole. Its a funny side affect that it triggers neuroses from people such as yourself. No I don’t live in Humboldt Park I was there with a friend.
Lots of people in the city shoot off fireworks Jenny, particularly this time of year. And also lots of people don’t care about your opinion of them. Even people that you think look like you that somehow should. Just because we may have the same complexion (I’m assuming) the similarities end there: we aren’t peers nor in the same cohort and we live very different lives through very different lenses. I am completely okay with this.
“control group is athiests”
Just above that: “the religiously unaffiliated”
You do realize that those are not the same, right?
following up on that:
It’s akin to categorizing those whose political party is “none” as “anarchists”–it’s intentionally pejorative.
Just posted my monthly update: https://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2021/07/chicago-real-estate-market-update-june-sales-2nd-highest-in-25-years/
Almost record sales in June. Tight inventory. Super fast market. Condo sales grew more than SFH sales but SFH sales did grow a fair amount.
“Almost record sales in June. Tight inventory. Super fast market. Condo sales grew more than SFH sales but SFH sales did grow a fair amount.”
Thanks Gary.
I didn’t think June could get any hotter than May. It was feeling like May might be the peak but no.
How is anyone finding anything to buy with the super low inventory? I realize that the listings are selling so fast they don’t even become “inventory.” But many buyers must just be buying ANYTHING available at this point.
36.3% higher than in 2019.
Wow. The sizzle.
Looks like we’ll see a few more hot months thanks to those that are under contract.
But I still think it will cool off by the fall when the kids go back to school.
I’m not surprised with rental eviction moratoriums and possibly property owner foreclosure moratoriums that prices would be higher. But volume indicates that the WFH trend is big and it looks like it’s global: UK experiencing a healthy housing bubble as well latest figures indicate despite both the pandemic and their Brexit.
Bubbilicious I’m sure our friend Jerome Powell has two squads of economists hot on the case downtown to sort it all out. 😀
At least one building is likely to have a hard time with sales for a while bc of Surfside:
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/after-surfside-catastrophe-gold-coast-tower-residents-worry
And the repairs appear to have been delayed due to the parking garage being separately owned–suppose that’s another thing to avoid about a condo building, not having control over the airspace that holds up the building.
Interesting report in the NYT re: Chicago’s water situation (too much and too little of it).
“And the best explanation is climate change, said Drew Gronewold, a hydrologist at the University of Michigan who has been studying lake levels for more than a decade. “‘
The author of the article repeatedly, over and over again, cited ‘experts’ and ‘scientists’ as experts about what will happen in the future, yet the author repeatedly, over and over again, cited evidence about how wrong the ‘experts’ and ‘scientists’ have been in the recent past. It doesn’t appear that the author even realized what they were doing.
My favorite fake news:
“Since last fall, the lake has fallen about a foot because of a relatively mild winter and a continuing drought. But nobody knows where this is headed. If warmer winters persist, the increased evaporation could help to shrink the lake back into record-low territory. ”
So, things are going back to normal but OMG THEY COULD KEEP FALLING!!!
Garbage, yes, garbage articles like this is why:
NO Serious Person Believes Anything the NYT prints.
NYT = Newsmax. One in the same, just a different side of the same coin.
“Interesting report in the NYT re: Chicago’s water situation (too much and too little of it).”
I read this anonny and while I don’t mind the national newspapers covering Chicago on the climate change issue, it just read like someone from out of town who doesn’t really understand the issues.
Yes, there has been erosion along the lakefront in the South Shore neighborhood. The article should have covered the north side too where they had to bring boulders in up in Rogers Park. Lots of beach lost on both sides. We’ve had some big storms that have really beaten these areas.
But is it “climate change” or just the storms?
I’d still rather be in our position than along the coasts.
A while back we were discussing Nashville. It’s actually been on my retirement research list but I hadn’t spent any time on it when the topic came up. However, we just got back from there, looking in Nashville, Franklin, and Murfreesboro.
The real estate market is hotter than its chicken. Most listings sell in days. We asked a realtor where people are coming from and she told us California and Chicago. She did not know where we were from at that point. She said most of these people were going to work remotely. Other people told us that plenty of employers are moving to Nashville and the skyline is full of cranes.
It’s just as expensive or more expensive than Chicago. You can check out the listings yourself but a 4 bedroom, 3 bath, 3000 SF, updated home with a garage and a back yard on a decent street is really hard to find under $1.25 MM. And you won’t get the high end appliance package.
Part of the problem is the definition of decent street. It can’t be a busy street or have a lot of poorly maintained homes on it and my wife automatically vetoes anything that is in a barren development. There is one development in Franklin that looked interesting. They are selling them faster than they can build them and the builders there no longer customize the homes because they don’t need to.
The problem is that housing prices in the Chicago area have gone up like 4% in the last 14 years while Nashville prices have doubled. You can see this in the FHFA data: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/FHFA-HPI-Top-100-Metro-Area-Rankings.aspx And since the pandemic home prices have hockey sticked in Nashville.
The economic appeal of TN is no state income tax and property taxes are roughly 0.5% of the home value vs. 2% in Chicago. On the other hand almost nobody was wearing a mask anywhere and we know for a fact that they are not all vaccinated. And then you have them banning promoting the vaccine to teens.
Does TN tax retirement income? Most working people underappreciate this “benefit” in IL.
Franklin, TN is nuts. A financial planner I work with just bought his retirement home there and changed his residency. He is done with Chicago.
The market is being driven by a lot of the Amazon money, but a ton of people from all over are moving there.
Pretty much anywhere in Southeast is booming. Atlanta is just as bad.
“Does TN tax retirement income?”
As Gary wrote:
“no state income tax”
How would they tax it then?
“You are so wrong on this WP, I don’t even know where to begin. And yet you keep repeating that this market is driven by the luxury market.
It isn’t.
Luxury is doing okay because the stock market is at record highs. They are always correlated. But they’ve over built on the luxury end. There are too many high rises with new product. How many buyers of $5 million condos do they think there are? It will take 5 to 10 years to clear all that inventory, in a good economy.”
I see 14 hi-rise condos (1/3 at the Walton) > $5MM. Are you saying that thats 10 years of inventory?
And how are these 14 units affecting the <$1MM market?
You really need to stop lying
“I see 14 hi-rise condos (1/3 at the Walton) > $5MM. Are you saying that thats 10 years of inventory?”
Huh?
I really wish you knew something about math JohnnyU.
There are hundreds of condos available downtown over $1 million. Hundreds.
How do I know?
The St Regis has 400 condos. Tribune Tower has over 150 more.
And then add in all of the other luxury buildings:
The Palmolive
No 9 Walton
30 W Oak
Trump Tower
55 Erie
The Fordham
The Pinnacle
Bennett on the Park (still not sold out)
The Ritz
Water Tower Place
340 On the Park
Aqua
Gosh. And on and on. I can’t even list all the luxury buildings downtown.
They have overbuilt on the luxury level. Some buildings have sold out like No 9 Walton, but others will take a decade, or more.
The luxury market is red hot, but there’s too much product.
“The market is being driven by a lot of the Amazon money, but a ton of people from all over are moving there.”
Amazon? Have they even opened that building yet?
But good for Nashville. It’s been booming for 10 years. Traffic is horrible. Franklin is lovely but I wouldn’t be moving there to commute to downtown Nashville every day, that’s for sure.
“Pretty much anywhere in Southeast is booming. Atlanta is just as bad.”
Hottest part of the country, outside of Boise. Tons of jobs. Cheap homes. Less snow.
I love this part of the country. I’m glad to see it booming.
“The problem is that housing prices in the Chicago area have gone up like 4% in the last 14 years while Nashville prices have doubled.”
True this Gary. My friend bought 7 years ago for $125,000 and the bungalows on her street (in Nashville proper) are going for $250,000 to even $300,000.
She can’t believe it. She thinks it’s nuts. These are 1500 square foot 1950s houses.
The thing that bothers me about Nashville is the lack of sidewalks. Some neighborhoods have them but most do not. I guess if you build a new house the city makes you put it in so it’s these weird sidewalks that go nowhere.
Another thing that bothers me is the lack of garages. People literally park on their front lawns. Lol. Or they put in a gravel driveway right near their front door.
I’m too used to Chicago’s alley/garage system. I couldn’t handle it.
“A while back we were discussing Nashville. It’s actually been on my retirement research list but I hadn’t spent any time on it when the topic came up. However, we just got back from there, looking in Nashville, Franklin, and Murfreesboro.”
What did you think of Murfreesboro?
I know some people considering Chattanooga and Knoxville because they are cooler in the summer time.
Tennessee is a beautiful state with an early spring, which is nice.
“Huh?
I really wish you knew something about math JohnnyU.
There are hundreds of condos available downtown over $1 million. Hundreds.“
You stupid drunk, YOU said $5MM. I even quoted you.
Not sure what shill math looks like but in the real world $5MM doesn’t equal $1MM you buffoon.
“But good for Nashville. It’s been booming for 10 years.”
Weren’t you saying the job market was terrible and compared it to New Orleans a few months ago? The only jobs available were low paying minimum wage that couldn’t get filled because no one could pass a drug test?
Weird how you respond to certain commentators who pointed out that Nashville continues to boom and make silly comparisons to New Orleans but than other commentators point the same thing out and you nod your head in agreement.
Shill….
“The luxury market is red hot, but there’s too much product.”
Sabrina comment from June 23rd on this thread:
“You are so wrong on this WP, I don’t even know where to begin. And yet you keep repeating that this market is driven by the luxury market.
It isn’t.
Luxury is doing okay because the stock market is at record highs”
So is Luxury “red hot” or is it “doing okay”.
Again, more shill…
“The thing that bothers me about Nashville is the lack of sidewalks.”
Yeah, that bothered my wife as well but in the nicer neighborhoods with the homes further apart it made more sense”
“Another thing that bothers me is the lack of garages.”
Also true. My wife had to keep checking for garages. That’s why I mentioned that as a key criteria above. And when they do have them and their attached to the house then the driveway eliminates most if not all of the back yard.
Ugh!
“What did you think of Murfreesboro?”
My wife dismissed it right after we drove through the first neighborhood on our list. She’s more of a snob than me. It’s not as quaint as Franklin and the homes look cheaper. But they are less expensive. I could handle it but she can’t.
My dreams of moving into a less expensive home in retirement are basically dashed at this point. There’s a good chance I’ll be spending more.
*and they’re attached*
Don’t want to be accused of making THAT mistake.
“My dreams of moving into a less expensive home in retirement are basically dashed at this point. There’s a good chance I’ll be spending more.”
Franklin IS ritzy. Lol.
Did you look at any of the nice neighborhoods actually IN Nashville? Some lovely areas.
“So is Luxury “red hot” or is it “doing okay”.”
“Again, more shill…”
How stupid are people on this blog? Seriously.
How simple do I have to make it? Obviously VERY simple.
1. The stock market is at record highs.
2. Rich people are doing VERY well.
3. They are buying so luxury sales are their hottest in several years.
4. BUT: developers overbuilt in luxury condos. There are 5 to 10 years worth of inventory. Too many new properties, too many older owners selling to move to Florida. Too much inventory. If you want a luxury condo, new or used, you can bargain HARD. Can probably get a really good deal.
5. Luxury single family homes are selling for more because there is less inventory and they have outdoor space, which buyers want right now.
Chicago is still a world class city. If the economy and stock market are doing well (they are), the Chicago’s luxury market will be hot (it is).
“Weren’t you saying the job market was terrible and compared it to New Orleans a few months ago? The only jobs available were low paying minimum wage that couldn’t get filled because no one could pass a drug test?”
Um…no.
But Chicago’s job market it ain’t.
If adding 1,000 Amazon jobs is messing that much with the city’s housing market, that tells you all you need to know.
It’s great if you’re in country music or hospitality though. Also big in healthcare companies. But law, finance, tech hub it is not. Just a much smaller, secondary city with a much smaller secondary job market.
“You stupid drunk, YOU said $5MM. I even quoted you.”
Huh?
There’s been big sales of high priced condos so far this year. Too soon to know if it will surpass 2019 but if the stock market stays elevated, it’s likely.
Again, there’s JohnnyU and WP gaslighting about luxury sales. It’s laughable. The market is great. People are buying- at ALL price points.
But they’ve got to try to be bears in what is the best housing market in 15 years.
So sad.
“Don’t want to be accused of making THAT mistake.”
What’s wrong with an attached garage? Doesn’t every suburbanite in St Charles have this?
“Again, there’s JohnnyU and WP gaslighting about luxury sales. It’s laughable. The market is great. People are buying- at ALL price points.
But they’ve got to try to be bears in what is the best housing market in 15 years.”
Pretty sure that exactly stating your own words and showing that your statement is incorrect isnt gaslighting, rather its called being factual.
But then again, I dont have the official Websters Shill dictionary. Perchance is it defined differently there
“Did you look at any of the nice neighborhoods actually IN Nashville? Some lovely areas.”
Yes. We looked everywhere where homes had sold in our price range. Often outdated homes or no garages or crappy streets or poor curb appeal or too small.
We sometimes stop in Nashville for a couple of days on our way back to Chicago in the spring. We always have a good time – good restaurants, bars, and live music. I get why it’s appealing to some, but as a place to live, it leaves me cold. Even the quirky little neighborhoods seem more suburban than urban.
“I get why it’s appealing to some, but as a place to live, it leaves me cold. Even the quirky little neighborhoods seem more suburban than urban.”
This is my take too Madeline. As a city-lover, I just don’t like it. The only real “urban” neighborhood is Germantown.
They’re building more in downtown, including apartments, so that may become a more urban type feel.
But otherwise, a smaller city like New Orleans or Cincinnati feel much more “urban” to me than Nashville.
“Yes. We looked everywhere where homes had sold in our price range. Often outdated homes or no garages or crappy streets or poor curb appeal or too small.”
Even that area out by the botanical gardens? It’s all built on a big estate. Big houses. Manicured. Basically like living in Oak Brook though. Lol.
Nothing “urban” about it.
Sorry, I just looked it up. Belle Mead. But it’s $3 to $11 million out there.
Not much on the market in the key “cute” neighborhoods right now in Nashville like Sylvan Park. Like everywhere. Housing market is red hot.
Yeah, there was virtually nothing on the market worth seeing. We went to one open house, saw some model homes, but mostly drove around looking at stuff that had closed to see what it looked like from the outside and what the neighborhoods were like.
Germantown appeared to be all townhomes or condos.
“Germantown appeared to be all townhomes or condos.”
It has a few single family homes, Gary. But yes, it’s being built with density which means condos. As it should.