Market Conditions: Will the 2nd Round of Looting Cause Condo Owners to Flee Downtown?
A few months ago, there was a lot of discussion about city dwellers fleeing big cities for the suburbs because of COVID-19.
There’s evidence that this is the case in New York City, but so far, despite trying to find examples of it, Chicagoans seemed okay with staying in the city despite the pandemic.
But August has seen a second round of looting in the Loop, the South Loop, the Mag Mile and the Gold Coast which has resulted in downtown curfews again.
And now, according to Crain’s, some downtown residents are having second thoughts about where they live.
Jennifer Ames, a partner at North Side real estate brokerage Engel & Volkers, has had calls recently from Chicago clients who have found homes in Montana and Boulder, Colo., to purchase.
“They want to sell their houses here,” Ames says. “People are now shifting ideas about where they want to live and work. Some are deciding they no longer have to be in a city center. The latest violence has prompted people to consider new options for the first time.”
Despite the initial round of smash-and-grab destruction in late May, downtown transactions began to inch back up in June and July as the city entered a more relaxed Stage 4 of recovery from the pandemic. Now, some residential brokers say, the market in August has gone cold again with little hope for a recovery soon.
“A lot of the sales downtown are to either empty nesters or second-home buyers drawn to the museums, theater, restaurants and pro sports here,” says Michael Michalak, a RE/MAX broker in Lincoln Park. “But all of that is closed now. Even with mortgage interest rates below 3 percent, potential buyers are looking at all this crime and deciding to put deals on hold.”
A closer snapshot of particular submarkets shows evidence of a downturn not seen since 2008-10. In the Loop itself this year so far, transactions are down over 30 percent to a mere 347 units compared with the same period last year. Lincoln Park sales were down 31 percent, while in the River North neighborhood condominium sales priced above $1 million were down 37 percent. At lower prices the downturn was more muted, with condo sales under $500,000 in the Near North down 15 percent so far this year, for example.
Until now, price reductions have been modest, mostly falling 5 percent or less, observers say. But some brokers see further declines coming. “People are waiting for lower prices,” says Pat Tobin, president of Tobin Real Estate Advisors based near Millennium Park. “Could prices fall another 5 to 10 percent this year? It’s hard to say, but it certainly could happen.”
But what about the neighborhoods?
They have largely gone untouched by the looting, with the exception of North & Clybourn’s Best Buy in this latest round.
Will Millennials still buy condos in Lakeview?
Ames, the broker, still sees signs of optimism. She listed a two-bedroom house in Jefferson Park recently at $289,000 and within 24 hours fielded a half-dozen offers. She expects the sale to close soon at more than $300,000. She also has a home on a double lot in Lakeview whose sale is pending after receiving multiple offers. The asking price was $2,995,000. “If you live in a high-rise in the Loop and must take an elevator up and down, then your condo is going to be harder to sell,” Ames says. “But if you’re farther north with some yard for kids to play in, that still looks good to families enduring this pandemic.”
Will there be big inventory coming online in the downtown that will lead to significant price declines?
And what happens with all the new condos coming online including the Vista’s 400 units and the rehabbed Tribune Tower?
Will this be 2008-2012 all over again?
Homeowners questioning city life after this week’s unrest [Crain’s Chicago Business, By H. Lee Murphy, August 11, 2020]
There was some minor looting in Hyde Park Sunday night and some of the south suburbs had lockdowns and curfews on Monday. Whether that will affect downtown I can’t say – though my comment is Chicago is a bit different than NY in that you can live in a bungalow or house here far more affordably (or a much larger unit in multi-family) than NYC so the exodus will probably be less so the pressure to move for space is less here. But I think WFH and office closures due to looting are going to hurt downtown short term at the very least.
I’m just going to imagine a scenario for a moment. It’s 2022/23. Vaccine has been safely tested and widely implemented. WFH has become much more commonplace (as it should have been ages ago), but we can go to concerts and museums and restaurants and beaches. Taxes and crime are still hot button issues in the city (like they’ve been for 40 years). Still like living in Oswego? (not to disparage Oswego, I’m just using it hypothetically)
I think short term we may definitely see some fear flight out of Chicago, but I don’t see major cities becoming ghost towns – unless we get handed a much more deadly pandemic or major terror act to deal with. This all looks worse from inside the hurricane.
Oh, and by the way, why stop at the suburbs? If I’m leaving the city and can work remotely – why wouldn’t I choose someplace charming and bucolic and perhaps on a coastline?
“There was some minor looting in Hyde Park Sunday night and some of the south suburbs had lockdowns and curfews on Monday.”
Thanks for the update on what is going on on the South Side FG.
But will Hyde Parkers want to flee because of the looting? Less likely that those stores will remain closed whereas the Mag Mile is in trouble. Are Gap and Victoria’s Secret even paying rent? Many stores hadn’t even reopened before this second looting.
It’s similar to what’s happening in New York with its 5th Avenue retail.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/nyregion/nyc-economy-chain-stores.html
“They have largely gone untouched by the looting, with the exception of North & Clybourn’s Best Buy in this latest round.”
Really? BB was the only store that got looted?
“Will this be 2008-2012 all over again?”
Answer your own question
“If I’m leaving the city and can work remotely – why wouldn’t I choose someplace charming and bucolic and perhaps on a coastline?”
This.
Marfa Texas is apparently hot, especially the ranches. All homes in Montana are hot.
I bet Santa Barbara, Laguna Beach, Coronado are too (for those who can afford it.) They aren’t really accessible to major urban areas but if you’re working from home, why not?
If it was 2008-2012 all over again we would need thousands upon thousands of properties to come on the market.
Just not seeing it.
In order to get significant price declines, you need an imbalance in the supply and demand.
There may be many more layoffs coming this fall and winter. If unemployment goes back up to 13% to 15% then we could get the foreclosures again (let’s hope not.) But people can live in their homes for 3 to 7 years in Illinois before the bank takes it back. So it will be years before inventory comes on the market to impact the sales prices. Last time, we had thousands of condos sitting there unsold. Years worth of inventory. This time, we do not.
Heck, when I started doing this blog in 2007, there was so much inventory, that I would routinely get 200 to 300 new properties through my trackers every day for a neighborhood like Lakeview. Now, it might be 20 or 30. Just a huge difference.
We don’t remember what a lot of inventory really looks like because it’s been years since we’ve had it.
Only excess inventory right now is in luxury condos. Prices could decline there. But a 20% price decline on a $2 million condo still isn’t going to do much for most buyers.
“Oh, and by the way, why stop at the suburbs? If I’m leaving the city and can work remotely – why wouldn’t I choose someplace charming and bucolic and perhaps on a coastline?”
Because it gets ruined by the influx of Karens, Chads & Sabrinas
A starbucks and potbelly on every corner…
“In order to get significant price declines, you need an imbalance in the supply and demand.
There may be many more layoffs coming this fall and winter. If unemployment goes back up to 13% to 15% then we could get the foreclosures again (let’s hope not.) But people can live in their homes for 3 to 7 years in Illinois before the bank takes it back. So it will be years before inventory comes on the market to impact the sales prices. Last time, we had thousands of condos sitting there unsold. Years worth of inventory. This time, we do not.
Heck, when I started doing this blog in 2007, there was so much inventory, that I would routinely get 200 to 300 new properties through my trackers every day for a neighborhood like Lakeview. Now, it might be 20 or 30. Just a huge difference.
We don’t remember what a lot of inventory really looks like because it’s been years since we’ve had it.”
Other than maybe Bob, I dont think anyone has been calling this as a 2007-8 situation. What you have been challenged on is how HAWT ™ the market really is and if there’s a contraction coming. So other than creating a strawman, you really havent said much
“Only excess inventory right now is in luxury condos. Prices could decline there. But a 20% price decline on a $2 million condo still isn’t going to do much for most buyers.”
I thought you were crowing on how HAWT ™ this market is/was?
“Because it gets ruined by the influx of Karens, Chads & Sabrinas
A starbucks and potbelly on every corner…”
Doesn’t this Sh*t get old man? Putting people into boxes and calling them chads / trixies / whatever? It’s no different to me than calling a ‘stereotypical’ asian person Wang, or stereotyping a black person, or calling a Mexican guy Jose or whatever.
I’ve been in the city forever and this kind of narcissism bugs the hell out of me. You’re not better than anyone.
Also, on a separate note – Starbucks and potbelly are successful for a reason. As are McDonalds, Taco Bell, whatever. Just because certain brands are more popular amongst a population does not make them crappy. Unoriginal? Sure. But you can’t have a mom and pop establishment in every suburb, on every corner. Working families need those Starbucks, potbelly’s, noodles and companies, etc, whatever.
The elitism of some of the idiots in this city is ridiculous.
Sabrina,
Also from what I’ve seen, the reason there isn’t a ton of properties on the market right now is multifactorial:
1. Those of us that have significant money invested in the real estate market are hoping that this will pass, and don’t want to sell our investments at a discount.
2. Some want to sell regardless, but also want to wait out the whole COVID thing until that whole situation is resolved.
I think the wealthy can afford to ‘ride this out’ for a while. If things get worse, I anticipate the real estate market to really nose dive, but probably not until next summer.
“They have largely gone untouched by the looting”
Which neighborhoods, and what does “largely untouched” mean to you?
“I bet Santa Barbara, Laguna Beach, Coronado are too[.] They aren’t really accessible to major urban areas”
WTF?? 2 of those three are *IN* major urban centers.
And Marfa is only about a 6 hour drive from San Antonio and Austin, which counts as “accessible” in Texas terms.
you think this round of riots was bad, just wait till Derek Chauvin is acquitted
If you’ve seen the body cam video, and the autopsy report you’ll realize that will happen. I’d get the fuck out of the city before that verdict is released if you value your safety. Trial tenatively begins March 8th FYI
Just learned that the WalMart at 47th and Cottage Grove is closed – barricaded with a garbage truck.
Hyde Park is a weird case because there are a lot of long term residents who are second and third generation and won’t leave, the University as a big employer and it’s a mecca for wealthier and striving black folk (as are the neighborhoods around – or had been until Covid). But I think there is a sense of worry – a lot of people don’t feel safe (and many are avoiding downtown now) -not just white folk.
WFH may help some smaller cities if people return to their hometowns and have a bored spouse who wants to open a business or enough people move that some businesses that haven’t been there, say boutique-y shops or restaurants have enough critical mass to revitalize some downtowns (say Tiskilwa or Buda).
“Derek Chauvin is acquitted”
If it happens, it will be bc of the stupid decision to upgrade the charges to 2d degree murder. Requires proof of intent to cause death (won’t happen) or proof of another (at least attempted) felony offense (unlikely).
3d degree murder was the right maximum charge. Ellison made a mistake, and if he doesn’t reverse it, will lose the case.
That as well anon, that as well.
I think in chauvin a case he has reasonable doubt on almost any charge. But we probably need to sacrifice one to the volcano. There was a white paper before the incident given to him that his positioning would not put excess stress on Floyd and there’s reasonable doubt that Floyd would have died anyway – was saying Can’t breathe beforehand. So the risks of riots from that trial are real but it’s likely delayed a while.
Chicago’s tax base is dead. They still have the pension debt. Even if the Feds bail out Chicago for all covid losses the smaller tax base that will occur from all this will cause issues with all the debt Chicago has.
Sudler is now going after Lightfoot… (Dunno if link will work)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ie2DuvpbytK-xW6jB7kXrPjZ003w0v0B/view
“Doesn’t this Sh*t get old man? Putting people into boxes and calling them chads / trixies / whatever? It’s no different to me than calling a ‘stereotypical’ asian person Wang, or stereotyping a black person, or calling a Mexican guy Jose or whatever.”
It makes a lot more sense when you include what I was responding to Vs pulling a Sabrina and reading what you want. –
“Oh, and by the way, why stop at the suburbs? If I’m leaving the city and can work remotely – why wouldn’t I choose someplace charming and bucolic and perhaps on a coastline?”
I dont have an issue with any of these places. However I dont find them particularly charming and bucolic, instead I find them utilitarian.
“3d degree murder was the right maximum charge. Ellison made a mistake, and if he doesn’t reverse it, will lose the case.”
Ellison is a idiot (Both politically & intellectually) and painted himself into a corner.
If he amends the lesser charge, He’ll get ripped and there will be rioting if he stays the course the 3 officers will walk and Chauvin will likely as well. Seans probably correct that Chauvin will be found guilty and will get reversed on appeal.
“WFH may help some smaller cities if people return to their hometowns and have a bored spouse who wants to open a business or enough people move that some businesses that haven’t been there, say boutique-y shops or restaurants have enough critical mass to revitalize some downtowns (say Tiskilwa or Buda).”
I think all small towns would like to have a Geneseo-like downtown, but I they have enough drawing power or built in customer base. Princeton’s downtown seems to be slowly gentrifying over the years
Not sure if this is evidence, but new listings in 60611 exploded over the last day or two. Sad.
Hopefully it positions me well to sell my suburban home and move downtown in a couple of years. I might be able to sell high and buy low.
“If he amends the lesser charge, He’ll get ripped and there will be rioting”
Was one of the most absurd prosecutorial decisions in a major case in recent memory. It’s like he hand’t read the statute.
“Was one of the most absurd prosecutorial decisions in a major case in recent memory. It’s like he hand’t read the statute.”
Hes a Pol w/ higher asperations.
Thought he could ride this to a larger National audience (His stint at the DNC not withstanding)
Would guess that he’s trying to figure out how to throw this back into Henn. Co lap
“you think this round of riots was bad, just wait till Derek Chauvin is acquitted”
Stop it sonies. Truly. You left. Stay there in your paradise. This is the same BULLSHIT that was said during the Laquan McDonald case, which was an actual LOCAL case.
Left Chicago when they sheltered us in home in April. Had a place in Hilton Head so have been there since. Thought I would miss the city which has been home for 12 years, but did not. Called up my neighbors to see if our building and condo (in the Gold Coast) was fine and thankfully it was. After Monday, I really have zero desire to go back. Thought I would miss the city life, the food, the architecture, the culture. I get 60% of that here and feel safe, relaxed, and happy. Keep debating if I should put my place in Chicago on the market, and everyday the answer gets easier. Lightfoot, IMHO has been a disaster (I guess Rahm would have been the hardass he needed to be). And until we get some REAL leadership, the city is at a huge risk. And if the lockdowns continue for 12 mos or so, and remote works keeps happening – watch out – it will Hurt.
“WTF?? 2 of those three are *IN* major urban centers.”
Um…clearly anon(tfo) has NEVER been to any of those three cities.
You do NOT work in downtown LA or other commercial neighborhoods in LA or San Diego from either place. The commute sucks. Both are filled with older people (60+) who may work nearby, but that’s about it. Coronado has the military. Lots of retirees. Same with Laguna. Laguna is in Orange County. I guess you could drive to Irvine in an hour or two? But why?
No- WFH totally opens up all three cities to a huge number of people now.
Actually, I’d add Malibu to that list too. You can finally live there and not be concerned about any kind of commute as LA is sheer hell, of course. I would put Venice on the list too but now that the studios including Amazon are adding thousands of jobs in Culver City, you can actually live in Venice and have a short commute to a decent job which is why the housing prices in Venice and Culver City are absurd now. And, of course, SNAP and Google are there. So WFH actually doesn’t make Venice more accessible.
Don’t miss those horrible California commutes, especially in LA. But isn’t that why everyone is fleeing LA and SF right now? They, too, can live anywhere. The Googlers in Venice no longer have to pay $4,000 a month in rent. They can move to Santa Cruz or wherever else they want to go.
But is anywhere in California, up and down the coast, any cheaper? It’s all outrageous, it seems. Even small coastal towns.
“Which neighborhoods, and what does “largely untouched” mean to you?”
Lakeview hasn’t had any looting. Either time. If you’re there you don’t know anything is going on in other parts of the city. Looks the same as always, albeit with more people eating outside. Same with Andersonville and Roscoe Village/North Center.
“I think the wealthy can afford to ‘ride this out’ for a while. If things get worse, I anticipate the real estate market to really nose dive, but probably not until next summer.”
Could be Riz. Especially if we’re in a super deep recession by next year, which is looking more likely due to the incompetence of this administration.
“Lakeview hasn’t had any looting. Either time.”
Wrong. They hit the ATT store, T-Mobile and a Jewlery store. All 3 of these are on Lincoln between Belmont and Roscoe. Those are just the 3 I know of. There were definitely more.
“Wrong. They hit the ATT store, T-Mobile and a Jewlery store. All 3 of these are on Lincoln between Belmont and Roscoe. Those are just the 3 I know of. There were definitely more.”
Sounds like Hyde Park. I didn’t know they went to the AT&T stores. All my friends there haven’t even mentioned it. Lol.
“Left Chicago when they sheltered us in home in April. Had a place in Hilton Head so have been there since. Thought I would miss the city which has been home for 12 years, but did not.”
Thanks for checking in with your perspective Paul. Lots of people love that part of the coast. It’s not a bad place to live.
“Called up my neighbors to see if our building and condo (in the Gold Coast) was fine and thankfully it was.”
By the way, despite what you see on tv, no residential structures have been impacted, unless they have retail in the base like a few on Michigan Avenue. Otherwise, the condo and apartment towers are fine.
“you think this round of riots was bad, just wait till Derek Chauvin is acquitted”
Might be a good idea for the president to get on TV before the verdict is announced and explain why we don’t just decide a verdict by referendum…and then ask for calm.
Anytime the cops shoot a hoodrat is the Mag Mile is going to become the Mogadishu Mile?
I doubt it. While the looting is bad and shocking to people it’s actually a much smaller economic hit to most than the lockdowns/pandemic overall at least to retailers.
Just read an article that the owner of a clothing store in the loop that opened in the 1950s is considering closing now. Article framed it as closing due to fourth time being looted within 7 months. However also states that the looting is a $100k loss on top of the $1MM loss from the pandemic overall.
A $100k looting loss even 4 times over is a $400k loss which insurance rates will go up for. A $1MM loss from the pandemic which many businesses insurance doesn’t cover is what will kill a business much faster.
The mayor and city government now have a huge problem though as business owners can blame the looting(s) and people could be more fixated on that vs the pandemic shock which appears far more serious.
For the big box stores they’re already going to have the big bath with their earnings reports due to the pandemic so the timing of the looting is very convenient & not that big of a deal.
Not defending the looters actions at all just trying to provide some context that the real elephant in the room is the pandemic and government pandemic response. And if the reports of 78% of recovered covid-19 patients are experiencing heart issues this is far more serious than a bad flu.
“Stop it sonies. Truly. You left. Stay there in your paradise. This is the same BULLSHIT that was said during the Laquan McDonald case, which was an actual LOCAL case.”
That video to me was far more disturbing. I saw straight up murder 1 in that video and yet the officer got less than a decade. I haven’t seen a police shooting that came close to being a murder 1 as much as that one was. Truly shocking and sad he got away with only a decade of his life lost for what he did (even if Laquan McDonald was a POS). Cool, calm, calculated murder from a safe distance.
For big retailers it might not be a big deal, but for small businesses the broken windows and stolen equipment can kill them. A lot of hair salons on the south side were hit in the initial rioting and all their equipment was stolen, which is expensive to replace. Even a month/six weeks after the riots about 1/3 of businesses in normally busy south side shopping streets were still closed. Even Walmarts took over a month to reopen.
Face it, Sabrina, that “sizzle” you keep hearing is the sound of torched real estate burning.
“You do NOT work in downtown LA or other commercial neighborhoods in LA or San Diego from either place.”
Of course you don’t work in DT LA from coastal OC. You work in OC, which is a “major urban center”–#8 county in the country by gdp, and the 2d densest county in CA.
And yeah, many/most people in Coronado don’t work locally. But if they do have a local office job, it’s all of a 15 minute drive from the Del to the middle of downtown SD–the 8th biggest city, in the #10 county by GDP.
“Same with … Roscoe Village/North Center.”
As Nyet said, in May, mobile phone stores hit in RV-NC, too, as well as CVS on Lincoln and Walgreens on Irving Park–which last I went by (last 10 days or so) still had a boarded up door.
And 3/4 of the businesses boarded up their windows, many for over a month.
Are you sure you live here?
I think when it comes to areas from which professionals might commute into downtown SD, it would be more from north county, no? Or maybe I’m just projecting my own preferences as to where I’d want to live (the Del is obviously more convenient).
“commute into downtown SD, it would be more from north county, no?”
Sure, for lots of reasons, but the proposition was that Coronado is “[not] really accessible to major urban areas”. Which is utter horseshit.
Same is true of Laguna Beach. Half of SoCal drives 90 minutes to work–the only “why” about LB is why someone who can afford it, but goes to the office, lives there instead of Corona del Mar or Balboa Island, which is fair, but that’s about preference, not “accessibility” to OC business centers (and is very parallel to Malibu–there are plenty of people who deal with the commute (usually CC/Westwood or Westlake, not DT, but some enjoy that type of pain) in order to live out there, for reasons).
True.
“Jennifer Ames … has had calls recently from Chicago clients who have found homes in Montana and Boulder, Colo., to purchase.”
Bully for her. Clients “who have found homes” elsewhere are more willing to trade, to accept low-ball bids, than those requiring a particular price.
And since prices are set at the margin, the “first movers” set the comps for those who dally.
Boulder is nice, as many (including myself) will attest. And the Mountain west has long been popular with people fleeing densely populated cities on the west/east coasts and Chicago.
In 2018 Colorado added 365k newbies from California, 200k from Texas, and 155k from Illinois, trends likely still intact, according to this dude who advised his Denver readers to “try to resist getting pissed” about it.
https://www.westword.com/news/colorado-transplants-and-their-original-states-2019-update-11362900
Denver county has seen a slow steady increase in population since the late 80s oil & gas bust:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CODENV5POP
Unlike the trend in Chicago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ILCOOK1POP
But housing in Denver & its front range are not cheap.
(I can recommend a realtor for those shopping in Ft. Collins.)
Case-Shiller contends Denver prices have nearly quintupled over the last 30 years, versus only doubling in Chicago.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DNXRSA
FHFA believes that house prices over the last 30 years have risen in Denver by 450%, in Salt Lack City by 420%, in Boise City by 360%, and in Chicago by only 127%.
So it’s not as if the niceties of the region aren’t priced in.
https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/2020Q1_HPI.pdf#page=23
Speaking of Salt Lake City, Mish Shedlock, a smart econ blogger—who’s been bitching about Illinois for the last decade—recently decamped for that boom town, wagging his finger too.
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/it-takes-3-weeks-to-escape-illinois
Does it really take 3 weeks to rent a westbound U-Haul? I dunno but some dude at ZH said recently:
“U-Haul 26′ truck, Chicago to Austin, TX: $4,147.00
U-Haul 26′ truck Austin TX to Chicago . . . $828.00”
I’d guess U-Hauls outbound from populous states like IL always trade at a premium to ones inbound. It’d be interesting to see what that inbound/outbound rental cost spread has looked like over time. Has it gotten wider recently?
Let’s go Hawks. (Don’t get swept.)
“Jennifer Ames, a partner at North Side real estate brokerage Engel & Volkers, has had calls recently from Chicago clients who have found homes in Montana and Boulder, Colo., to purchase.”
Hahahaha missed this gem until just now. Boulder, Colorado I could see.
But if Ms. Ames rich clients think they will fit in or be happy in Montana, if they have no family or connections already living there, they are mistaken. Same thing goes for Wyoming (outside of Jackson Hole where the wealthy east coasters buy vacation homes and is a bubble unto itself very much different from the rest of the state.
Too many wealthy folks have really big egos that they could hack it anywhere, when the reality is even I have enough self-awareness to know Wyoming would be really tough. Yeah you can get a big ol’ house for cheap! Hope you like being a homebody–because people moving from urban centers out there aren’t wilderness types who would enjoy large swathes of nothing but nature. Pretty to look at but quite unforgiving to people that need human interaction. And arrogance is thinking you can just switch your personality on a dime & adapt. Before jumping head first into Wyoming they might want to give a place like Tennessee a try first (outside of major cities there).
“Boulder is nice, as many (including myself) will attest.”
It’s gotten a bit smokey over the past 24 hours, but yes.
“In 2018 Colorado added 365k newbies from California, 200k from Texas, and 155k from Illinois”
Nah, not even close.
The data he drew from was a census table of place of residence v. place of *birth*. So it’s not even a decade of migration, it’s 75 years of migration. Click thru to his source, and compare 2018 to 2010 (oldest on that page)–the number of Illinois-born migrants to CO in those 8 years appears to be 6,000, while 4,000 apparently went the other way.
Given the indicated MOEs, there’s a lot of estimating going on there.
Also interesting: by ‘state of birth’, Illinois (13.4m) was in 2018 the 4th largest state, behind CA (29.6), TX (20.7) and NY (20.3), and just ahead of PA (13.3).
Also also interesting: Half the states ‘keep’ (as of ’18) between 60-70% of the people born there; the underperformers (rounded):
DE=58%
HI-58%
KS-58%
MT-57%
RI-57%
VT-56%
WV-55%
SD-54%
ND-49%
AK-47%
WY-45%
DC-18%
The overperformers:
TX-82%(!!)
NC-76%
GA-75%
CA-74%
FL-74%
AZ-73%
WI-73%
MN-72%
SC-72%
TN-72%
UT-72%
AL-71%
MI-71%
“They have largely gone untouched by the looting, with the exception of North & Clybourn’s Best Buy in this latest round.”
No, Apple, Dicks, all of the phone stores and others. Dick’s had only reopened a week or two ago.
“But if Ms. Ames rich clients think they will fit in or be happy in Montana, if they have no family or connections already living there, they are mistaken.”
There are tons of rich in Montana with big ranches.
And lots of retirees in Missoula.
Missoula home prices have gone up the last few years and are on fire right now. Not sure about Bozeman or Billings.
“I’d guess U-Hauls outbound from populous states like IL always trade at a premium to ones inbound. It’d be interesting to see what that inbound/outbound rental cost spread has looked like over time. Has it gotten wider recently?”
Yes. This has been happening to people moving out of California for years now as more move out than move in.
In 2014, the Redeye said census data showed 1500 Chicago residents had emigrated to Austin between 2007 and 2011. That was more than the major cities like San Francisco which saw 987 and Brooklyn which saw 250.
Leaving for Texas has been popular for over a decade.
“Same is true of Laguna Beach. Half of SoCal drives 90 minutes to work–the only “why” about LB is why someone who can afford it, but goes to the office, lives there instead of Corona del Mar or Balboa Island, which is fair, but that’s about preference, not “accessibility” to OC business centers (and is very parallel to Malibu–there are plenty of people who deal with the commute (usually CC/Westwood or Westlake, not DT, but some enjoy that type of pain) in order to live out there, for reasons).”
Realtors in Santa Barbara County are telling the tale that I said would happen. If you could live ANYWHERE and not have to do ANY commute, where you going?
Well Prince Harry and Meghan went to Montecito. Realtors said they are getting buyers from all over the country right now.
Will be the same in Malibu, Laguna Beach (plenty of $5 million homes for sale there) and Coronado. Coronado had 3+ years of inventory before COVID. This is a dream come true for those home sellers. They may be able to finally sell.
“There are tons of rich in Montana with big ranches.”
Absolutely. But it’s actual “rich”, not merely UMC folks who can buy another home and possibly transition to it as a primary home. It’s totally different than the UMC second home buyers from TX, Chicago, CA, whatever, who buy places in MT or the mountains of CO (some of whom may now be looking to transition to full time life at their second home).
“Might be a good idea for the president to get on TV before the verdict is announced and explain why we don’t just decide a verdict by referendum…and then ask for calm.”
Good point Gary. I’m sure this is what Biden will do.
“Absolutely. But it’s actual “rich”, not merely UMC folks who can buy another home and possibly transition to it as a primary home.”
Agreed anonny. I think Jenny was talking about the real rich in this case. People with $5 million homes in the Palmolive or $7 million home in Lincoln Park.
“Well Prince Harry and Meghan went to Montecito.”
The Russian-Jewish gangster who sold it to them took a loss. Gonna censor this too? I notice that as Sabrina gets more extremist and outs herself politically (by supporting the senile Biden), she has to resort to censoring people. Sad.
“Same with … Roscoe Village/North Center.”
cwbchicago website shows that carjackings are taking place all over the north side. Crime can be anywhere in the city these days.
“(by supporting the senile Biden)”
If he’s senile, what is the President?
Notice how Trump always projects onto others what he is.
So Kamala is “nasty” and “angry.”
Biden is “sleepy.”
Obama has committed “treason.”
“The Russian-Jewish gangster who sold it to them took a loss.”
No one was talking about this. Why bring it up? Yes, I’m removing all your racist, sexist, homophobic, anti-Semitic stupid comments.
Why are you reading the cwbchicago website HH if you live here? If you lived here, you wouldn’t need to read some dumb website. You would know what was going on already. But we all know you don’t live in Chicago.
And we weren’t talking about carjackings. Not a single person was talking about that.
Agreed anonny. I think Jenny was talking about the real rich in this case. People with $5 million homes in the Palmolive or $7 million home in Lincoln Park.
Based on what?
The people buying $5-10MM ranches in MT aren’t living there full time. They own it to Hunt, fish and say they own a ranch
Plenty of people that can WFH and can afford $750-1,000k are looking a places in Missoula
“ “(by supporting the senile Biden)”
If he’s senile, what is the President?
Notice how Trump always projects onto others what he is.
So Kamala is “nasty” and “angry.”
Biden is “sleepy.”
Obama has committed “treason.””
You’re as objective towards Biden as you are the HAWT ™ Chicago Real Estate Market
“ Why are you reading the cwbchicago website HH if you live here? If you lived here, you wouldn’t need to read some dumb website. You would know what was going on already. But we all know you don’t live in Chicago.”
Sez the poster who didn’t know about the riots/looting in Lakeview and other hoods
“Agreed anonny. I think Jenny was talking about the real rich in this case. People with $5 million homes in the Palmolive or $7 million home in Lincoln Park.”
Real rich could certainly do it, of course. Not sure they’d want to. Housing doesn’t cost much, there’s not really much to spend things on and noone out there would really care about your wealth.
Sure a small fraction might be true outdoors people but most are not.
The statement alone from Ms. Ames makes me laugh and reminds me of a scenario I heard about some years past: a partner at a Big-4 firm that was a friend of the family was tired of that lifestyle & decided to quit and move out there to become a rancher.
It worked out about as well as you would imagine. Ranching, unlike a corporate job, is physically/real hard work. Unlike white collar work which people just perceive to be hard work but is just mentally stressful. Still makes me laugh to this day someone could be smart/lucky/diligent enough to become a partner at a big4 but also under the impression they could make this career transition..it does make one wonder about folks.
I’d like to know if all the units recently listed were owned by investors or actual residents? It could lead to some interesting scenarios such as deconversions to rental.
There’s a lot of property in Idaho near Jackson hole that looks like UMC full time housing (also where a lot of people employed in JH live) as well as in various areas of northern Idaho and western Montana – like around Kalispell.
If I knew I could wfh permanently I would move somewhere like that. It wouldn’t surprise me if my office downsized our space in the loop or left the loop though.
Jefferson Park and other northwest areas are looking pretty decent at the moment. Definitely not “HAWT”… but appealing. Virtually no looting (one small incident at Colombia Care dispensary), great schools, yards, aldermanic pressure to increase development at 6 Corners and up Milwaukee Ave. New construction is selling for $675k+ and on almost every block around me there’s at least 1 more of them being built or marketed. What Ms. Ames is saying matches what I’ve heard from other agents. There’s increasing demand and interest for “Chicago-light” areas; less dense, safer zones that — with good transit options — aren’t as sprawl-inducing as suburbs/exurbs.
I’m cautiously optimistic on Chicago in general despite the short term setbacks (COVID, looting, etc) and long term risks (pensions, property tax risk). We’ve got a freshwater lake the size of West Virginia and some of the most fertile farmland in the world, both of which will be very handy as the planet’s ecosystem goes tits up. If a more progressive administration ever takes control of USDOT and better funds the FRA to improve passenger rail infrastructure vs pissing billions away on highway widening (which doesn’t reduce traffic), Chicago as an existing mega-rail transportation node will greatly benefit. But right now the mayor has to get the looting under control otherwise it will hurt the commercial base, further damage the city’s financial outlook, and detract outside investment. Both extremes of the political sides forget that you can condemn institutional police racism/brutality AND anarchistic/opportunistic looters. They are not mutually exclusive nor are they always directly related.
We’re about to get two new rail routes from Chicago – Rockford and Quad Cities are coming within two years (as well as all of the old coaches Amtrak uses in the Midwest being replaced with new from Siemens in California – a huge upgrade – they should be arriving in the fall) as well as a second train to Minneapolis.
Anyone else get derecho’d this week? We are currently getting estimates to rebuild part of our roof deck.
“a partner at a Big-4 firm that was a friend of the family was tired of that lifestyle & decided to quit and move out there to become a rancher.
It worked out about as well as you would imagine. Ranching, unlike a corporate job, is physically/real hard work. Unlike white collar work which people just perceive to be hard work but is just mentally stressful. Still makes me laugh to this day someone could be smart/lucky/diligent enough to become a partner at a big4 but also under the impression they could make this career transition..it does make one wonder about folks.”
That was a TV show. Loved it! But most of you are too young to know what I’m talking about. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0058808/
“Realtors in Santa Barbara County are telling the tale that I said would happen.”
Did I say anything about Santa Barbara? No!
Could that be because SB is *very* different from Laguna and Coronado? Yes!
“We are currently getting estimates to rebuild part of our roof deck.”
JU will be surprised if they are less than $100k.
Don’t know anyone with meaningful home damage, but lots of cars.
“It’s totally different than the UMC second home buyers from TX, Chicago, CA, whatever, who buy places in MT or the mountains of CO (some of whom may now be looking to transition to full time life at their second home).”
I know a few professionals who did so (not really the 2d home route, but just straight up moving, while still officed in Chicago) *before* COVID.
No power for three days (utility pole caught fire after branch hit it, then transformer blew knocking out the rest of the block – FD summoned multiple times Monday night). We only got it back that quickly because the entire block and half of another were out.
Glad I have family with spare bed and wifi…
“you can condemn institutional police racism/brutality AND anarchistic/opportunistic looters”
A challenge on that front is that the popo are organized and have substantial political power, and the looters don’t, so the conversation quickly becomes “how can you attack us when we are the thin blue line separating citizens from the hoodlums? you may not like us, but you need us.”
“A challenge on that front is that the popo are organized and have substantial political power, and the looters don’t”
Going to disagree a bit
Chicago, Portland, Mpls, Seattle (among others) all had significant political support for the riots, especially when it started. I think the only rioter they’re going after is the supposed HA hang around that started one of the fires in Mpls
Make sure your contractor can really get PT decking before demo starts if you’re using that. Been going on for awhile. PT might be kinda lowroll for CC. The higher end stuff seems more available.
“all had significant political support for the riots”
You’re conflating the protests, the riots (limited, except in MSP), and the looting. Which is as reductionist as suggestions of eliminating the police entirely.
The protests certainly had political support, the riots to some extent, but the looters–I’m not seeing it.
This is pretty close (not quite but as close as you can get) to supporting looting: https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/8/10/21362612/black-lives-matter-lori-lightfoot-police-shooting-englewood-looting
“The protests certainly had political support, the riots to some extent, but the looters–I’m not seeing it.”
guessed you missed this gem
https://youtu.be/utvulEaUKK8?t=17
“guessed you missed this gem”
There are individuals who support *everything*; that’s not the same thing as “political support”. Crazy people going to be crazy.
There are people who support having the police just shoot all the looters, too. So there’s crazy on both sides of that issue.
BLM supporting looting isn’t quite the same thing as Lori supporting looting. BTW I assume everybody saw that BLM was shooed out of Englewood by locals earlier this week, right?
“You’re conflating the protests, the riots (limited, except in MSP), and the looting. Which is as reductionist as suggestions of eliminating the police entirely.”
I did combine riots & looting, not the protests
“The protests certainly had political support, the riots to some extent, but the looters–I’m not seeing it.”
How far back to Floyds death are you going back?
And outside of a little mean mugging, lightfoot has by her lack of willing to suppress the looting is at a minimum giving tacit approval.
Wheeler and Durken (and the LGA) are reacting similar
“lack of willing[ness] to suppress [X] is at a minimum giving tacit approval”
Is this where we’re at now, as a country? I guess it is, and I don’t mind saying I think it sucks.
So, everyone (except Twitter) is tacitly approving QAnon? And the whole of the Republican congressional caucus tacitly approves of “9-11 was a hoax”?
“Is this where we’re at now, as a country? I guess it is, and I don’t mind saying I think it sucks.
So, everyone (except Twitter) is tacitly approving QAnon? And the whole of the Republican congressional caucus tacitly approves of “9-11 was a hoax”?”
You’re making an emotional argument.
While I agree that your described litmus test is a poor attempt at public discussion (Silence = consent). There’s a big difference between John Q Public not having to state or disavow every statement and a Gov. Official not performing their core duties. The latter is providing tacit approval, the former not so much, unless you want to think the worst in people
Foxx and her County cronies own some of this as well
“JU will be surprised if they are less than $100k”
Ha – When you use Sabrina’s rule of thumb of $250/sf
“There’s a big difference between John Q Public not having to state or disavow every statement and a Gov. Official not performing their core duties.”
So, what’s the foolproof response to “suppressing” the looting? Is it the same mysterious answer that some supposed CPD gave to Trump 3 or 4 years ago?
Is Trump’s lack of willingness to share that miracle cure his tacit approval of the murders in the city since then? I suppose you’ll say that’s not his “core duty”–fair enough–but again, is that where we are?
And yes, Foxx and the county goofs do deserve to wear the jacket, too. Their whole attitude is a big part of why I was anti-Preckwinkle.
There was some minor looting near Toni’s place Sunday and the Walmart near her was closed most of the week – I bet she is a bit personally anxious about it herself despite her talk.
And look no further for the effects of lobbying at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Despite all of the empty space in Wyoming, Jackson Hole’s county qualifies as a high cost of living county per FNMA/Fannie/Freddie. Cook County, Illinois does not.
Nothing but wide open space for hundreds of miles, and somehow we subsidize mortgages in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and it’s county up to over three quarters of a million dolalrs.
Sabrina, as someone who is from that part of west texas, i’m curious where you’re hearing that Marfa is a hot place now. Do you mean in general or lately in particular?
A new report confirms what many have been talking about for weeks: There is a mass exodus out of San Francisco, and the numbers are staggering.
https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/article/2020-San-Francisco-exodus-is-real-and-historic-15484785.php
It’s all over twitter that, yes, it appears SF is done for.
It makes sense–RE in SF costs substantially more than other large cities aside perhaps from townhomes in the touristy parts of Manhattan.
What exactly are you getting for a $5 million SFH? $5 million isn’t like your nice $1.5MM house in a good neighborhood in Chicago. $5MM is global FU money.
And to get a mortgage on a $5MM SFH I’m guessing you’d need 20% down or more. Sorry but the math just doesn’t make sense to tie up $5MM in a SFH unless my net worth is $20-25MM. And the number of those people is quite rare.
And as for a second home, well $5MM for a second home again is restricted to the very small number of ultra HNWP that have $25mm+.
Given the banks can’t easily sell/securitize these huge mortgages, there might be some problems with the banks that originate these loans.
SF would’ve never had nearly as extreme a bubble if it weren’t for bubbilicious financing options that enabled rampant speculation. And now the Keynesians will refer to the pandemic as a “black swan” event or “1,000 year storm/flood”, when in reality they occur ~once/century.
Hell they have rolling blackouts again in SoCal due to incompetence and diverting grid maintenance funds to green energy over the years, so to live in California is to volunteer to pay exorbitant taxes coupled with a high cost of living and terrible traffic to all be governed by absolute imbeciles. Hard pass.
“And to get a mortgage on a $5MM SFH I’m guessing you’d need 20% down or more. Sorry but the math just doesn’t make sense to tie up $5MM in a SFH unless my net worth is $20-25MM. And the number of those people is quite rare.”
Wrong. This is what you don’t understand if you’ve never lived in the Bay Area.
In San Francisco itself, the number of people with $20-$25 million net worth is actually quite COMMON. Also on the Peninsula. For the last 20 years, the media has been writing article after article talking about subjects like how parents can hide their wealth from their kids so they don’t know they’re worth $30 million. Or even how to talk to their kids at all if it comes out, through friends etc., that, hey, your family is rich. Because so many live in what we would consider to be “normal” houses in the city and on the Peninsula.
Other common themes are how to do estate planning when they’re worth $30 million or $50 million. How to set up a foundation etc.
And why? Because of stock options. For over 30 years it’s been company after company just churning out the IPOs and thousands of people getting lucky and being first in.
Think of Microsoft back in the 1980s. It created thousands of “Microsoft millionaires.” And now flash forward all of these years later to Facebook, Twitter, Square, a half a dozen software companies and on and on. All located mostly in the Bay Area. It has created thousands of people who are millionaires and many who are worth, easily, $25 to $50 million.
Facebook has 52,000 employees in the Bay Area. All you would need is just 520 of them to be the earliest employees, with the most stock options, if they’re even still around, and you are talking a bunch of multimillionaires. And that’s just one company.
This is why San Francisco and the Peninsula is so depressing. You really can’t compete even if you earn $500,000 a year in income as a lawyer or doctor.
The East Bay was always cheaper (over the mountain East Bay) like Orinda, Lafayette, Walnut Creek, because you could only commute to SF from there but NOT Silicon Valley. But now, if the Valley companies are going to let all their workers work remotely, and you take the commute out of the equation, then prices are going to jump considerably in places like Orinda as the stock option money moves in.
As Gary posted on here last week with that example in the East Bay of a house his daughter had put an offer on (and lost)- that was eventually bought for over $500,000 more than the asking with ALL CASH.
You really can’t compete with the stock option buyers. Not when the stock market, and tech stock, are hitting new record highs nearly daily.
“A new report confirms what many have been talking about for weeks: There is a mass exodus out of San Francisco, and the numbers are staggering.”
Yes! They are leaving. If your employer says you can work anywhere and you are renting, wouldn’t you flee too? The rents are insane there.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
In the article describing this in the WSJ this weekend, they said a lot are looking in the East Bay, Sacramento, Phoenix and Denver. Could have a strange effect on prices in some of those places if too many of them came looking even though most companies will cut your salary if you move out of the Bay Area. It’s still higher than most of the averages for their area.
One guy in the WSJ article said he bought a 2-flat in Racine Wisconsin where he will live in one and rent out the other and said he would “live like a king” in Wisconsin on his tech salary.
Lol.
“Sabrina, as someone who is from that part of west texas, i’m curious where you’re hearing that Marfa is a hot place now. Do you mean in general or lately in particular?”
Over the last several months DH. It was an article in the NYT or the WSJ. I can’t remember which. The rest of West Texas real estate is suffering due to the oil layoffs. But real estate agents said one area that was still hot and seeing sales was in Marfa because New Yorkers were looking there for a back-up ranch to have due to COVID. Lol.
“We’re about to get two new rail routes from Chicago – Rockford and Quad Cities are coming within two years (as well as all of the old coaches Amtrak uses in the Midwest being replaced with new from Siemens in California – a huge upgrade – they should be arriving in the fall) as well as a second train to Minneapolis.”
Really FG? That’s great news. It’s about time there was Amtrak again to Rockford. Any idea on if they will ever resume it to Madison?
“I’d like to know if all the units recently listed were owned by investors or actual residents? It could lead to some interesting scenarios such as deconversions to rental.”
You need 85% of the building to vote “yes” now as they changed the rules that used to require only 75%. Not saying that some buildings couldn’t get it but it’s going to be very difficult.
Also, demand for apartment rentals could decline over the next year if people leave the city to work remotely somewhere else. There’s already several new buildings that have just come online or that will in the next few years including that 50+ story tower at Chicago Place.
“You’re as objective towards Biden as you are the HAWT ™ Chicago Real Estate Market”
There is NO objectivity in 2020. You are either for incompetence and the continuing deaths of Americans and destruction of our economy, or you are not. I don’t care if you hate every single Democrat and have never voted for one in your life. There is NO other choice but to get out the cancer.
It will be interesting to see if/how salaries are affected by people leaving SF. A software engineer in SF may make $300k, but a person with the exact same job in Chicago makes $125k. If you are hired to work in SF and move to Chicago, will you still make $300k?
“If you are hired to work in SF and move to Chicago, will you still make $300k?”
No, you will take a salary reduction. Facebook, for instance, has already let it be known that you will be paid in accordance to the norms wherever you are moving to.
Here’s the WSJ article I was referring to in my other comment.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-work-is-reshaping-san-francisco-as-tech-workers-flee-and-rents-fall-11597413602
“A software engineer in SF may make $300k, but a person with the exact same job in Chicago makes $125k. If you are hired to work in SF and move to Chicago, will you still make $300k?”
Also, in the WSJ article, several said that, “yes” they were taking the salary reduction but the cost of housing in some of the cities people were moving to was so much lower (one couple went to Durham, NC) that it more than made up for the salary cut.
“the math just doesn’t make sense to tie up $5MM in a SFH unless my net worth is $20-25MM”
I’d say it’s more like $50m, and if you’re talking about 2 $5m homes, I’d say it is *at least* $50m. Or basically perpetual $5m annual income.
Of course, not many hold that view, which is part of why you see pro athletes and movie stars with 9-figure career earnings broke after the cashflow stops.
“There is a mass exodus out of San Francisco, and the numbers are staggering.”
From the article:
“Historically, the ratio of homes for sale relative to total housing has been a quarter of New York’s.
“Regardless, the 96% year on year change in inventory marks a significant moment.”
So, this staggering increase takes SF listings from 1/4 the ‘normal’ rate of NYC, all the way up to 1/2 of ‘normal’ NYC. And NYC is a pretty tough market for buyers, too.
Call me when it doubles *again*, and Sellers are taking less than they paid.
Re: condo deconversion; it’s been happening, especially in buildings with a lot of small units and investors. That’s why I’m intrigued about who is listing their units, investors or owner-occupiers.
Re: trains to Madison; any train service to Madison will be via Milwaukee and is far in the future for the moment (Amtrak has never served Madison by train – rail service to Chicago, which was frequent, was discontinued about the time Amtrak was created). Rockford service is anticipated to eventually continue on to Galena and Dubuque (possibly even to St. Paul as a second, potentially faster route).
“Re: condo deconversion; it’s been happening, especially in buildings with a lot of small units and investors. That’s why I’m intrigued about who is listing their units, investors or owner-occupiers.”
That was before the pandemic. Everything has changed now, including loans from the bank to buy buildings.
Why would investors list their unit if there was going to be an offer to deconvert? The deconvert price is usually higher for many of the owners.
“Re: trains to Madison; any train service to Madison will be via Milwaukee and is far in the future for the moment (Amtrak has never served Madison by train – rail service to Chicago, which was frequent, was discontinued about the time Amtrak was created). Rockford service is anticipated to eventually continue on to Galena and Dubuque (possibly even to St. Paul as a second, potentially faster route).”
Thanks for the update FG. It might not have been Amtrak that went to Madison but there was another railroad that went there. There are still tracks. I’m assuming once you get Amtrak going to Rockford, it wouldn’t take much to resurrect the route going straight north to Madison.
Re:trains- Scott Walker famously and publicly refused Obama high speed rail funds setting a proper Midwest HSR network back decades. A sane route from Chicago to MSP via Milwaukee and Madison will instead have to go across N Illinois, into Iowa, then up to MSP. Good riddance to that dumbass.
Anyone have a Crain’s subscription that they could post this article? Definitely pertinent to this discussion.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/suburban-homes-are-suddenly-selling-fast
W/o turning this into a rail thread, there are all kinds of issues with getting rail to Madison, especially downtown (most of the proposals are for a remote station – at least from the high-speed proposals a few years ago iirc). I suggest visiting a fan site for more info.
I know exactly the kind of rich, arrogant person Bob is talking about, when he speaks of people who think that their prodigious success in one specialized area, means that they can be just as successful, and in a much shorter time frame, in something utterly different that their original field.
There was a certain CBOT trader here in Chicago who I will not name (he’s been dead for a decade in any case)and who friends of mine worked for a couple of decades back, who had founded a bond-trading firm that made him tremendously wealthy over a couple of decades. He was known to be a very, very disciplined and careful trader. He was worth about $150 million when, like some other Chicago and NYC money men before him, he decided he was going to play at being a film producer in Hollywood, a calling for which he had no aptitude, and certainly no experience or knowledge. Well, he went out there and set up shop, leaving his underlings in charge of his trading operation, which he had micromanaged before. He promptly lost about $50 million and had his arse handed to him out there, by people much cagier and savvier in the industry than him. After all, that is the industry that taught the mob how to keep books. Meanwhile, his underlings back in Chicago were busy losing more money now that the boss was not there to enforce trading discipline. Maybe he would have succeeded if he’d dedicated the same time learning his new calling as he did his first, but his arrogance, and assumption that he could just slide right into something utterly different than his old profession, set him up for failure. At least he had enough sense to exit before he lost everything.
Good story, Laura, and it rings true. I know that professionally I’m only truly competent at one thing, and luckily that’s been enough to make a living from for most of the last 25 years. I tried going into a different profession in my mid-30’s and it was a constant struggle. I always felt like a fish out of water. It paid more, and that was the lure. But I ended up going back to my old profession for less pay, because it’s where I feel most comfortable and can do my best work.
“But I ended up going back to my old profession for less pay, because it’s where I feel most comfortable and can do my best work.”
Pay isn’t everything and often times places pay more because they have to to retain people. I worked at a gig right before the pandemic hit where managers were going to the hospital during month-end close due to the hours and stress. I mean really if you’re keeping your team there until 10pm-midnight each night of close there are problems there.
Oh and yeah when the pandemic hit HR gives a big speech to everyone on the floor saying almost everyone is working from home but not certain departments like finance LMAO. Well that was my last day there anyway.
But to give that speech with a straight face and insinuate one department’s lives were more expendable than others, that was a real shocker even to me.
Hey FG, apparently I was wrong about condo conversions in Chicago during a pandemic. There IS a bank willing to give out a loan.
Crain’s says 10 E. Ontario in River North is having a vote on deconversion tonight. It will need 85%. Hard to get.
The article said they are offering around 27% above current average selling prices. And 75% of the building is already owned by investors. It is, for all intents and purposes, already an apartment building.
Will all those landlords bite?
keef17x: we can’t post the article in the comments, or on the site, as its Crain’s content.
But here’s a pertinent paragraph:
Despite widespread rumors that residents are forsaking Chicago and other cities for the suburbs, “it’s really that they have been in lockdown and they’ve seen they need more space,” said Marty Walsh, a Dream Town agent. He’s recently represented homes in Wilmette and Winnetka that each landed buyers in less than three weeks.
“We don’t think they’re fleeing the city,” Walsh said. “They’re changing to meet this new normal, where everybody’s working at home and the kids are doing remote learning. They can’t do all that where they’ve been living.”
It also discusses how people want houses with pools, which wasn’t the case before the pandemic. Pools usually are harder to sell in Chicagoland.
Low inventory is leading to multiple offers in the suburbs. One house in Homer Glen had 12 offers.
I heard an interesting take on some of the movement out of cities, specifically related to Millennials. The thought was that the pandemic has pushed a lot of them to make moves they were going to make anyways at some point in the relatively near future, but moved it up to a mass event because of the need for space, etc, etc…
“We don’t think they’re fleeing the city,” Walsh said. “They’re changing to meet this new normal, where everybody’s working at home and the kids are doing remote learning. They can’t do all that where they’ve been living.”
This is some straight up, grade A realtor Orwellian Newspeak
“It also discusses how people want houses with pools, which wasn’t the case before the pandemic. Pools usually are harder to sell in Chicagoland.”
Family member just went under contract on a sub $700k, suburb house, move in ready and an in-ground pool. 6 Bids in a day – now that is a HAWT ™ Market.
If millenials do one thing and kill that “OMG DONT BUY A HOUSE WITH A POOL” real estate rule, that can be their gift to the next generation.
“If millenials do one thing and kill that “OMG DONT BUY A HOUSE WITH A POOL” real estate rule, that can be their gift to the next generation.”
Absolutely. Sure, pools can be a hassle, but overall, I’m surprised they are as relatively rare as they are. We got a 15′ round (48″ deep) cheapo above-ground pool this summer and it has been a life saver. If I had the means (or lived somewhere less expensive) I’d for sure have an in-ground.
Low inventory is leading to multiple offers in the suburbs. One house in Homer Glen had 12 offers.
Some friends recently listed a house in Morton Grove on a Tuesday; by Thursday they had 20 offers. Almost all over ask.
I’m in Winnetka and everything is selling fast. Homes that had been on the mkt for years selling. Many homes going over list. Would love if Sabrina did a “Suburbs Week” here on CC.
just heard an anecdote that someone’s lake house in wisconsin that had been languishing on the market for 3 years just got an offer 300k over asking price, thats nuts
I’ve financed a number of 2nd home purchases this summer. Far more than any other year. Definitely seems to be a trend brewing. People with homes in the city buying property in Michigan & Wisconsin all of a sudden. A few even out in states like Wyoming.
Also noticed a lot of the corporate exec jobs are now saying relocation not necessary.
While I don’t think cities will die, people are certainly rethinking city living particularly as companies are realizing you don’t need to be in the office to be productive.
I’m going to be a nay-sayer on pools. I love swimming, but would rather have a yard/garden. One of my friends built a pool and if he were to do it again, he wouldn’t (partner wanted it). Other friends parents didn’t build a pool until kids were in college “oh, they might drown” – course the kids (my friends) kept the house and use the pool a lot.
“Would love if Sabrina did a “Suburbs Week” here on CC”
I’ve done this in the past during the bust and no one cared that much. Because unless you’re from that particular suburb, you don’t really know much about the real estate.
Maybe I will cover some properties in Evanston as I’ve done that in the past.
“Some friends recently listed a house in Morton Grove on a Tuesday; by Thursday they had 20 offers. Almost all over ask.”
Wow. Thanks for the anecdote Madeline. 20 offers? That’s great for those homeowners.
Gary would say they listed it too low though. Lol.
“I heard an interesting take on some of the movement out of cities, specifically related to Millennials.”
Who’s renting in all the high rises downtown?
It’s mostly Millennials.
After being stuck in their buildings for months, and the rock climbing wall off limits, they decided, with mortgage rates around 3%, that they may try buying now. And most are priced out of buying a house in the city. And many city townhouses don’t have much outdoor space. So why not go to the suburbs?
“So why not go to the suburbs?“
Wait, I thought no one wanted to go to the suburbs?
“Gary would say they listed it too low though. Lol.”
Consider it said.
I vote yes on Sabrina posting a few suburban listings. I remember one she did back in 2009 or 2010 about a block away from my home in Ravinia (Highland Park). I see a lot of for sale signs by me, and a new rental apartment building is going up across from the train station.
“I vote yes on Sabrina posting a few suburban listings.”
Here’s one checking most of the “hot” boxes:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Wilmette/515-Karey-Ct-60091/home/13778170
5 bedrooms, separate office, in-ground pool, Wilmette/New Trier schools, all for about the same price as the LaSalle condo with the $3.50 doorknobs.
anon (tfo) – interesting that they’re offering 10k at closing if buyer wants to remove the pool. aren’t pools hot commodities these days. people are even renting them out by the hour.
“interesting that they’re offering 10k at closing if buyer wants to remove the pool. aren’t pools hot commodities these days. ”
Here’s what’s even more interesting. With that offer what buyer is not going to “want to remove the pool”?
“Absolutely. Sure, pools can be a hassle, but overall, I’m surprised they are as relatively rare as they are.”
Aaannnddd…here am today, having rushed out between calls to Home Depot for some JB Water Weld and flex seal tape for my first leak. Just need this thing to make it another month or so.
or just be like this guy https://i.imgur.com/6FoFH9C.jpg