Market Conditions: YOY April Sales Decline 26.2% in Chicago; Median Price Continues to Slide
The data for April home sales is out. Remember, last year was still influenced by the tax credit. Buyers had to be under contract by the end of April (but didn’t have to close until June.)
The IAR is, for the second month in a row, choosing to separate out some of the Chicago condo data when it has not normally done that (in this case- the median price.)
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
In the city of Chicago, April home sales (single family and condominiums) totaled 1,464, up 1.0 percent from 1,450 sales in the previous month and down 26.2 percent from 1,984 homes sold in April 2010.
The city of Chicago median price for single family and condominiums in April 2011 was $205,500 up 7.6 percent compared to $191,000 in March 2011 and down 8.7 percent from a year ago in April when it was $225,000. For condominiums specifically, the median price reached $290,000 in April 2011, up 4.3 percent year-over-year from $278,012 in April 2010.
Here are the sales statistics for April since 2007:
- 2011: 1464 sales
- 2010: 1984 sales
- 2009: 1407 sales
- 2008: 1886 sales
- 2007: 2419 sales
Here are the median prices:
- 2011: $205,500
- 2010: $225,000
- 2009: $218,000
- 2008: $300,000
- 2007: $289,800
“An incentivized market helped move more units last spring, however a competitive distressed market this year has led to an increase in the condo median homes sales price to $290,000 in the city of Chicago. Housing values are still on the lower side of the market but the value of housing and homeownership is motivating buyers to purchase homes while they can still get lower interest rates and more home within their budget,” said Mabel Guzman, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and a REALTOR® with Envision Real Estate LLC, Chicago
“While we are seeing brisk activity in lower price ranges, the housing market will really gain some solid traction when move-up buyers stop waiting and take advantage of this very affordable time to buy,” said REALTOR® Sheryl Grider Whitehurst, ABR, CRB, GRI, president of the Illinois Association of REALTORS® and the Development and Operations Coordinator for Traders Realty in Peoria. “This really is the moment both for buyers and those who want to sell and move on because later this year the cost of homeownership will go up. Interest rates are expected to rise above their historic lows and the cost to borrow will rise, too, with changes proposed in the lending market such as higher down payment requirements.”
Adds Whitehurst: “Market forces are steadily improving and factors for rising home sales are developing.”
As for the IAR’s data, I have noticed that the data for the year ago month (in this case April 2010) is always slightly off in the current press release compared to last year’s press release. How could that be? Isn’t the data simply the data?
For example, last year’s April 2010 sales was 1985 (in last year’s press release) but in today’s press release it says it was 1984. That is only off 1 sale, but I have seen it off more in other months.
Outside of the data, this press release is painting a rosy picture about the next several months.
“Promising signs continue in both the housing market and in the economy. Our sales forecast shows that the housing sales volume will continue to increase for the next two months, with a monthly growth of 11 to 16 percent for Illinois and a monthly growth of 8 to 17 percent for Chicago. The forecasts indicate that the housing market will reach its 2011 peak in June,” said Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois. “The economy is moving in a positive direction. Both the national and the state job market continue to show solid gains of economic recovery.”
Adds Hewings: “The forecasted year-over-year sales rate in Illinois will turn positive in July, which means the effect of the homebuyer tax credit will fade out during the summer. The median prices for May, June and July are expected to be higher than April in both Chicago and Illinois.”
Will median price really rise from here over the next several months?
April Illinois Home Sales and Median Prices Tick Up from March [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, May 19, 2011]
G, can you point me to the part about how their data was wrong and was corrected based on your advice?
do these guys ever shut up? trying to talk people into making financial mistakes so they make for commission $. I bet they were saying this the last 3 years.
“While we are seeing brisk activity in lower price ranges, the housing market will really gain some solid traction when move-up buyers stop waiting and take advantage of this very affordable time to buy,” said REALTOR® Sheryl Grider Whitehurst, ABR, CRB, GRI, president of the Illinois Association of REALTORS® and the Development and Operations Coordinator for Traders Realty in Peoria. “This really is the moment both for buyers and those who want to sell and move on because later this year the cost of homeownership will go up. Interest rates are expected to rise above their historic lows and the cost to borrow will rise, too, with changes proposed in
How can the “move-up buyers” sell when so many of them are underwater? I don’t get it. There is no way for them to sell.
“For example, last year’s April 2010 sales was 1985 (in last year’s press release) but in today’s press release it says it was 1984. That is only off 1 sale, but I have seen it off more in other months.”
Seems very suspicious because immaterial period reclasses never happen, ever. With any data. Public companies never do it with financials. Ever.
“While we are seeing brisk activity in lower price ranges, the housing market will really gain some solid traction when move-up buyers stop waiting and take advantage of this very affordable time to buy,” “This really is the moment both for buyers and those who want to sell and move on because later this year the cost of homeownership will go up. Interest rates are expected to rise above their historic lows and the cost to borrow will rise, too, with changes proposed in the lending market such as higher down payment requirements.”
More fear-mongering. Hilarious how absurd these people are. When costs of homeownership will rise, and there’s higher down payment requirements, prices will go down, because income isn’t going to rise that fast to compensate for it. Move-up buyers? Most people who are looking to move up, bought in 2005-2007, and now have negative equity. They will need 2 down payments now – one to sell their current place, and another to buy the next. Not many people can do that without significant issues – maybe could take out a 401k loan to do so….Ha.
“How can the “move-up buyers” sell when so many of them are underwater? I don’t get it. There is no way for them to sell.”
You are assuming the 5% they put down in the condo 6 years ago is all they have. You forgot about the promotions that occured in the meantime, the bonus that got paid last year, etc. Most people I know (professional, upper income, people who could have afforded a 400k condo at 26 and a 1M home at 32 — in today’s dollars) made at least double at age 32 what they made at age 26, though many were just finishing law school or business school at 26.
Yeah, I’ve noticed the change in the data also, Sabrina. I just chalk it up to revisions.
The good news is that so far this year contract activity has been running well ahead of 2009 and the back half of 2009 was better than the back half of 2010. See first graph here: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-real-estate-getting-real/2011/05/chicago-home-sales-drop-28-in-april.html
In other words, the back half of this year should outperform last year. The only fly in the ointment is that April closings should have been a lot higher than they were, given the normal seasonal pattern, and that is a concern. It could be that with almost half of all sales distressed (see second graph) contract to close times are significantly longer than normal and a backlog is building. I need to check that out.
Isn’t it also true that a lower % of distressed properties under contract actually close as well?
Good to know that there’s so many 32 year olds who can afford $1M properties in the Chicago area. oh wait, that’s because I didn’t go to HBS. Shoot. And I also wasn’t born with a trust fund that would buy that.
I don’t know about the close rate on distressed vs. non-distressed properties. I would imagine that would be true. However, I’m finding that only about 15% of contracts don’t close.
I guess if it’s a cash sale, it may be more likely to close compared to one where the buyer needs a mortgage. So it probably balances out, and the percentages would be similar to non-distressed sales.
“I’m finding that only about 15% of contracts don’t close.”
How are you calculating that from mls data?
So when I see 10% off the 2007 price, I may just roll my eyes.
“They will need 2 down payments now – one to sell their current place, and another to buy the next. Not many people can do that without significant issues – maybe could take out a 401k loan to do so….Ha.”
That’s probably about right since you cannot roll the difference from the first home into the new loan without reducing your buying power for that step-up home.
“How are you calculating that from mls data?”
I pull the contracts for the previous month about one week into the next month. I do this each month and what I find is that as they age they only drop about 15% over the course of 2 months and then they don’t drop much more. Now, there could be other contracts written during the previous month that have died before I pull the data but what I’m talking about is the decay rate in contracts outstanding at the end of a month that eventually die.
whats with the 4 posts a day thing now? i cant keep up and forget where i posted and what i posted.
pretty soon i will be posting 9 days late with chitowngal. 🙁
I don’t know else to say but that I’m shocked at the precipitous decline in volume and prices. To me, at least, it seems like there’s still a long way to fall despite these already major declines. Just when you think things cannot get any worse, they do. Oh, but the high end 5bd new brick construction in 60657 will be just fine because 32 year olds who buy million dollar homes are everywhere.
“I don’t know else to say but that I’m shocked at the precipitous decline in volume and prices.”
You are? Were you not aware of the dough for dumps program last year? And what precipitous decline in prices are you referring to?
They were just talking about housing on CNBC – one guy tried to argue there has been a decoupling of the housing market – distressed and non-distressed, in most markets except Florida. Then the other people jumped on his comments. They talked about all this household formation with recent college grads, but no jobs to be able to buy a house. And more comments about prices dropping in Mpls, Boston, etc. Commentators sounded surprised by the data.
ANyone who buys now needs at least 30% down payment as a cushion, and a desire to live in that home for a long time. Gone are the days of “I will live here for 3 years and then trade-up” I would love to see some analysis on the number of people you are completely locked out of the housing market due to personal debt over-hang (Not to mention tighter lending and the exit of the feds from the mortgage market). Left ward demand shift. I feel bad for any seller at the moment and I am amazed at any buyer who is brave enough to buy w/o serious discounts from the last purchase price.
1,2,3,4 I smell a class war!
“Now, there could be other contracts written during the previous month that have died before I pull the data but what I’m talking about is the decay rate in contracts outstanding at the end of a month that eventually die.”
Okay. It’s just not enough to support your “15% of contracts don’t close” claim, since it will always understate that they do in fact often fall in and out in a month with the contract date gone from the mls by the end of month (when you look.) Maybe your method utilizing weekly data would be better to support your claim, but tracking daily contract totals would be best.
“1,2,3,4 I smell a class war!”–I don’t think bag-holders are the revolutionary type. They just got screwed. Some will be set back 10 years financially.
yeah, shocked like Captain Renault in casablanca. as far as the decline in prices, the median stat above (*attach all usual caveats to median price yada yada yada)
# 2011: $205,500
# 2010: $225,000
Shows a healthy decline in at least the mix of housing sold YOY. moreover, today’s price declines (march, april, may) as determined by closings (at least the few that there are) will not be reflected in the CS index for a few more months and it’s pretty obvious what’s happening out there. it’s a fricken bloodbath. realtors are starving, prices are dropping, homes are languishing, and in some sub-neighborhoods I watch, properties more or less stopped going under contract last month. usually a couple props a month sell but lately it’s like someone flipped a switch. other areas (60657) are probably hot hot hot but other areas are cold cold cold.
“You are? Were you not aware of the dough for dumps program last year? And what precipitous decline in prices are you referring to?”
G, where is the IAR correction? Still waiting buddy.
“as far as the decline in prices, the median stat above (*attach all usual caveats to median price yada yada yada)
# 2011: $205,500
# 2010: $225,000”
Median price is meaningless. And it would be just as meaningless if it was up:
“For condominiums specifically, the median price reached $290,000 in April 2011, up 4.3 percent year-over-year from $278,012 in April 2010. ”
Or are you claiming that condos have been a great buy over the last year?
“It’s just not enough to support your “15% of contracts don’t close” claim, since it will always understate that they do in fact often fall in and out in a month with the contract date gone from the mls by the end of month (when you look.) Maybe your method utilizing weekly data would be better to support your claim, but tracking daily contract totals would be best.”
Correct. But the context of the discussion was that I was tracking contracts on a monthly basis and noticing that on that basis the numbers were way above 2009, which I think should bode well for the rest of this year. It’s looking to me like 2009 was the low point. In fact, the second graph here: http://ChicagoHousingStats.com for the broader Chicago PMSA shows that pretty clearly.
“in at least the mix”
Thank you. At least you understand how numbers obscure underlying trends, unlike others.
I am not sure 60657 is hot, but I haven’t checked.
if median is meaningless then why report it? it has value showing the mix of units sold.
Sure, condos have been a great buy and they’re getting better. I’ve seen new construction 3/2’s around the city (outside of teh gz) sell pretty cheap.
homes are a great buy too – but they’re also still way overpriced. the great buys are only going to get better!
“I am not sure 60657 is hot, but I haven’t checked.”–I was thinking the same thing. I don’t think I could describe any area as hot at the moment.
the 60657 hot was referring to the high rents charged by landlords for 5bd homes.
(Median)”it has value showing the mix of units sold.” –If anything it says the 600k-1.5m range is a tough reach for buyers compared to the supply. The median just keeps trending lower. Imagine what it will be like with out the government guarentees–Becasue the adminstration has made clear it will only support the lowest end of the housing market.
“How can the “move-up buyers” sell when so many of them are underwater?”
Sabrina, the vast majority of people who own are NOT underwater – only a fraction of the people who bought from 2004-2011 are underwater. I’m sorry if you are only friends with young people who bought during this time – but they are NOT the entire market.
Also, please remember that just because someone is underwater doesn’t mean that it is a awful terrible thing. Think about it, almost everyone who finances a car is underwater for the first year or two – should they panic? No, they just need to hold on and they will be fine. In the meantime, they get use out of their car. Homeowners should feel the same way.
“whats with the 4 posts a day thing now? i cant keep up and forget where i posted and what i posted.”
she gets the posts out of the way, then hits the beach with her drink. On the way home she takes photos of the next day’s cribs. [Ironically, sun-drenched and margarita soaked, her photos are still better than some listing agents :D)
LOL @icarus
“one guy tried to argue there has been a decoupling of the housing market – distressed and non-distressed”
There is a lot of truth to this and people like Clio have been making a similar argument for some time (except the way Clio says it it comes across as elitist and shilling). The vast, vast majority of distressed properties are at the way low end. In addition, if you are trying to find a SFH near public transportation, with good schools, in a nice neighborhood it’s a different market. Still depressed but not like the low end.
We sell three products at XYZ company, Widget A, B and C.
A costs $2 and we sell it for $4
B costs $3 and we sell it for $6
C costs $5 and we sell it for $10
C is our really big seller, but in this economy, people are trading down. That’s ok, because A only lasts 40% as long as C, so people buy more of them.
Last year we sold 100 C, 50 B and 50 A — that’s $1,500 to you and me.
This year due to the economy, we sold 25 C, 75 B and 200 A for $1,500 — flat but that is ok in a down economy right?
Wait a second. Price per unit went down? What the hell happened? We must have reduced our prices by 1/3 or discounted the hell out of all our products. The sky is falling! XYZ is going bankrupt.
But then someone calls Groove, the accountant. Thank God someone thought to actually ask the guy who knows the numbers right? He calmly explains this concept called mix. If you sell more of a lower priced unit proportionally, your average and median price will decrease. It does not mean the company makes less money nor does it mean the company sells less. Thanks to Groove, the company is saved. He can go back to his reports, spreadsheets and abacus now.
Lather, rinse, repeat, except this time with RE.
“There is a lot of truth to this and people like Clio have been making a similar argument for some time (except the way Clio says it it comes across as elitist and shilling). The vast, vast majority of distressed properties are at the way low end. In addition, if you are trying to find a SFH near public transportation, with good schools, in a nice neighborhood it’s a different market. Still depressed but not like the low end.”–Yes but you are missing is that there are simply fewer buyers who can afford these high end homes. So ellers have to hold forever and go through multiple listings until they find that one buyer. Eventually I think we will see seller fatigue.
“the 60657 hot was referring to the high rents charged by landlords for 5bd homes.”
People are clearly desparate enough to pay 7,300 for a home like that. Go figure — that is your market. I think 10k / mo gets the somewhat funky lake house in Winnetka last time I checked. Boy I love beach launched laser sailing.
“if median is meaningless then why report it? it has value showing the mix of units sold.”
It’s meaningless if you are measuring if housing prices have gone up or down. Which is what you were doing.
“seller fatigue”
Or they rent for $7,300 and make a killing, at least relative to giving the house away.
JMM I am glad you kept your accounting book, but that is a company not millions of privately held homes.
I don’t know much about these astronomical rents HD claims are abound in 60657. Maybe it is true. I think we hear about a few and say–“wow that’s amazing”
Some pretty awful car and widget analogies up in here.
I’m not making the claims, JMM is making the claims about astronomical rent.
BoB 2–You have to get abstract to spin it in a good light.
“JMM is making the claims about astronomical rent”
It wasn’t a claim. It is on the MLS. I am as surprised as anyone, and a little jealous we don’t get 7,300 ourselves.
As far as the mix issue goes, it absolutely applies to median/average home pricing as reported by realtor associations. It is why CS matches pairs, in part, because it controls precisely the mix issues discuseed.
When I lived in SoCal, one of the most useful indexes to assess trends in the market was “months of inventory”–essentially listings count for the month divided by contracts closed during the month. An attractive feature of this index is that it combines buy and sell sides in a single measure. I haven’t seen similar data reported for Chicago. Can anyone point me in the right direction?
“G, where is the IAR correction? Still waiting buddy.”
The NAR is just getting around to 2007 corrections (extended back to 2000 after the article, btw.)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704476604576158452087956150.
One thing is certain, the IAR’s April 2011 Chicago median of $205,500 is not calculated correctly from the 1464 reported mls sales.
well this discussion is way over my head so I’m gonna go for a run around Portage Park and then hit the hardware stores. Maybe go past a few of the overpriced “what do you mean it’s not 2006” homes I’ll never be able to afford.
“well this discussion is way over my head so I’m gonna go for a run around Portage Park and then hit the hardware stores”
GO TO RUSSO HARDWARE!
Oh yeah, the Chicago attached & detached sfh median sale price in April 2011 was $169,000. This represents a 3% increase from March 2011 of $163,400 and a 25% decrease from April 2010.
Of course the average and median can mask price movements due to the mix. Sounds like more bloviating about the obvious.
“one of the most useful indexes to assess trends in the market was “months of inventory”–essentially listings count for the month divided by contracts closed during the month. An attractive feature of this index is that it combines buy and sell sides in a single measure. I haven’t seen similar data reported for Chicago. Can anyone point me in the right direction?”
The link I posted above for ChicagoHousingStats.com has that in the middle of the page for 2 -3 bedroom condos (I think the spam filter will prevent me from posting another link). In addition, at the bottom of the page I have links to the inventory data for several different neighborhoods. The bottom line is that inventory has been dramatically improving.
“He can go back to his reports, spreadsheets and abacus now.”
“JMM I am glad you kept your accounting book, but that is a company not millions of privately held homes.”
its a basic mix analysis all companies run one monthly, many use a comparison to last years #’s and f***ed up companies run the mix to budget.
it is a stretch to run RE though the analysis but it can work to *explain and clarify an example or thought.
wouldn’t want to use it as serious data output though for accurate forecasting in this application.
its all about the variables man, the variables!
Is that another end-of-month snapshot, or is it actual inventory? How do you account for expired/cancelled listings? How do you account for current REO inventory not on the market?
“The only fly in the ointment is that April closings should have been a lot higher than they were,”
The weather has been really crappy for home-hunting.
“The only fly in the ointment is that April closings should have been a lot higher than they were,”
I believe Gary based the statement on the prior months’ contract volume and comparison to April 2009 closings and prior months’ contracts.
Groove running against budget is just running against standard cost, or should be. Not sure why that would be special.
Lots of very intelligent managers cannot get their arms around GM variance analysis — price, cost, mix, volume. What is standard for you might not be well understood in the board room, let’s put it that way.
“Is that another end-of-month snapshot, or is it actual inventory? How do you account for expired/cancelled listings? How do you account for current REO inventory not on the market?”
A bit more complicated. Any property for sale at any time of the month. Then we reduce it for what went under contract and hasn’t fallen out of contract.
Can’t account for REOs not on the market but it’s not really available for sale anyway.
“What is standard for you might not be well understood in the board room, let’s put it that way”
sounds like my second week of the month battles.
you would be amazed at the shyte analysis i have to “create” because some “private parking spot” dillweed got it in their head to look at it a certain way will help see something that is inconsequential/immaterial and really they are looking in the wrong areas.
stubborn old f***ers, but hey they got to where they are because of “something”, while i am still a desk jockey pawn.
“I believe Gary based the statement on the prior months’ contract volume and comparison to April 2009 closings and prior months’ contracts.”
To further clarify…the contract graphs I show are just contracts, not closings. They are contracts that didn’t die. To allow for some decay of contracts I whack the most recent month’s data by 15% and the prior month’s data by 5%. So for all of this year contract volume has been higher than 2009 levels as shown.
“Lots of very intelligent managers cannot get their arms around GM variance analysis — price, cost, mix, volume.”
lots of them cant even understand trends in margins and will only look at a comparison from previous month to current month and go “why are the margins bad”? even when all the data is right there to make an intelligent call.
Groove – an accountant? I didn’t see that coming.
Groove — I feel your pain. Not sure which is worse, that guy or the private equity ahole 2 years out of business school who thinks he can run your manufacturing 10x better by firing all your relatives. The good news is you can tell that guy to take a hike.
By the way, I love the private / reserved parking comment. So true and quite classic.
“even when all the data is right there”
If the data is there, consider your job done to perfection, IMO.
We have a hard time sometimes even getting intelligible data. Sort of like reading a G post and wondering WTF the conclusion should be and why.
“I believe Gary based the statement on the prior months’ contract volume and comparison to April 2009 closings and prior months’ contracts.”
Gary, that quote petained to your comment:
“The only fly in the ointment is that April closings should have been a lot higher than they were,”
I assumed this statement was based on a comparison of early 2009 contracts to April 2009 closings and extrapolating to early 2011 contracts/April closings and discovering a big discrepancy?
“If the data is there, consider your job done to perfection, IMO”
hard to do when the outcome/decisions made from the lack of looking at the analysis make me cringe and take a long lunch to get out all the WTF’s before i head back to the desk and say “yes sir may i have another”
“By the way, I love the private / reserved parking comment. So true and quite classic”
the worst is when things are breaking records and blowing out budgets you can NEVER go to them with some stuff and say “hey this aint right, we can do *this do way better, if we could only shrink this and move the resources here”.
i guess if the dividend cuts are big then all is well?
ok rant over i am hungry at it will be a long one
“Sort of like reading a G post and wondering WTF the conclusion should be and why.”
anon, do you share this problem? HD? DZ? Valasko? Sabrina? Ze? Roma? groove? Bob? annony? a-fed? chuk? Tipster? Dahlia? anyone else?
Sorry if it has been going over peoples’ heads, but I really doubt it has. Do I really have to bloviate on the basics time and time again, like in most of jmm’s posts? If something isn’t apparent to anyone, just ask. I have always tried to help people with requests as much as possible.
“I assumed this statement was based on a comparison of early 2009 contracts to April 2009 closings and extrapolating to early 2011 contracts/April closings and discovering a big discrepancy?”
I was comparing April 2011 closings to closings for the first 3 months of the year in comparison to how the seasonal pattern normally runs for closings.
G – were you recently laid off – you seem to be posting a lot and have become a lot meaner.
So, based on that alone, about 10% low? That appears to be the typical change from March to April and this year saw a 1% change.
g… No issues here… Just a data dump to me. Gotta say you r more sensitive than i remember from 2 years ago.wouldnt let it get to u. No need.
I don’t, G. I don’t make a point to read many people’s posts–but I do yours.
“G – were you recently laid off – you seem to be posting a lot and have become a lot meaner.”
Give it up, clio, you’ve never made a correct call around here.
“I don’t make a point to read many people’s posts–but I do yours.”
Then I probably owe you an apology since some of them appear pretty harsh out of context. Thanks, though – and to you, ze.
“Give it up, clio, you’ve never made a correct call around here.”
Yeah, G’s pretty much always been this mean.
“So, based on that alone, about 10% low? That appears to be the typical change from March to April and this year saw a 1% change.”
Yep.
“G – were you recently laid off – you seem to be posting a lot and have become a lot meaner.”
Clio, I was actually thinking to myself that G was being extraordinarily nice to me today. Seriously.
“G – were you recently laid off”
Lol, G is looking for a job? Clio why don’t you hire him to gopher new investments?
“Yeah, G’s pretty much always been this mean.”
Not sure mean is the right word. Pretty much sounds like a 5th grader accusing people of lying all the time. Which is consistent with analysis that is often lacking support and/or conclusions drawn from data that doesn’t support it.
“Which is consistent with analysis that is often lacking support and/or conclusions drawn from data that doesn’t support it.”
But I thought G did no analysis and drew no conclusions?
“Not sure mean is the right word. Pretty much sounds like a 5th grader accusing people of lying all the time. Which is consistent with analysis that is often lacking support and/or conclusions drawn from data that doesn’t support it.”
Funny that nobody who is respected here seems to agree with you, jmm. Anyone?
I appreciate your data too, G.
Now JMM’s bloviation on basics that usually only point out the superficiality of his knowledge, and clio’s pot shots and spin, those posts I try to skip. Only when somebody else is drawn in am I forced to read, and almost always am able to confirm my previous impressions.
oh no G.. 5th grader at best. I’m on their side. Of course i never left 3rd.
I’m still stunned by the revelation that groove is an accountant . . . is this true?
“You are assuming the 5% they put down in the condo 6 years ago is all they have. You forgot about the promotions that occured in the meantime, the bonus that got paid last year, etc. Most people I know (professional, upper income, people who could have afforded a 400k condo at 26 and a 1M home at 32 — in today’s dollars) made at least double at age 32 what they made at age 26, though many were just finishing law school or business school at 26”
Ahh the “there are countless lawyers / bankers / consultants with tons of cash argument”
never gets old
G disappeared for a while last year and the comments were less informative w/out him, imo.
ZeCaroica was gone for like a year and a half and then pops back up during x-mas. are there no chinese restaurants in rio?
good they both came back to add substance bc there has been an upsurge in nonsense this year.
food here sucks CH… I learned how to make my own sweet and sour chicken…
And i got the x-mas joke.. One time my mom even made reservations and we were the only people there. On target.
Now just waitng for the conventional wisdomers to return to the walk to work thread and pick one from column a or column b… Just like ordering family style. So far nothin but crickets!
“But I thought G did no analysis and drew no conclusions?”
Only when confronted, then offers a half-baked conclusion which is in fact not supported.
“Ahh the “there are countless lawyers / bankers / consultants with tons of cash argument””
Check who lives in a $1M+ SFH’s in Chicago and is under the age of 50. There is surprising overlap.
“Funny that nobody who is respected here seems to agree with you, jmm. Anyone?”
Funny further still how people who have a certain view of the world and disagree with you don’t support a view, even when confronted with information to the contrary.
Certainly not Juliana the book keeper who doesn’t understand the concept of depreciation. Of course, the JEs are too high level for an accounting clerk to handle.
“One time my mom even made reservations and we were the only people there.”
She *knew* the bumpus hounds were going to grab teh turkey?
the turkey used to come pre sliced in celophane… Ze is passionate about food. Ze learned to cook. Btw do u know where i can get a lamp shaped like a leg?
“I appreciate your data too, G.”
ditto!
thanks G for all the stuff you provide, it helps me form my own view of whats going on!
“I’m still stunned by the revelation that groove is an accountant . . . is this true?”
Dang Endora, i dont know whether to say thanks or OUCH! I am not a CPA if that helps with the “shock”
“i dont know whether to say thanks or OUCH!”
I think it’s almost certainly a positive statement about you (but possibly a negative statement about your profession).
Also, I found G (and others) to be helpful even when I barely spent any time on here. Things did seem to be less contentious in the past. I was searching for something a while ago and saw a post where JMM was really nice to HD. Shocking.
“JMM was really nice to HD. Shocking.”
they could be a couple, secretly. like bob and dollface
Ze – Google for A Christmas Story Leg Lamp. They’ve been on the market for a few years.
G, is bloviate the word of the day?
“Dang Endora, i dont know whether to say thanks or OUCH! I am not a CPA if that helps with the “shock””
well groove, that explains why you aren’t a total tool
Anonemoose–Do any of them ship to Brasil?
I would have chosen a different word, but found myself at a loss when searching for another one which could so perfectly describe the discourse in question.
“G, is bloviate the word of the day?”
I would have chosen a different word, but found myself at a loss when searching for another one which could so perfectly describe the discourse in question. Hate to be a copycat, but G nailed it.
“G, is bloviate the word of the day?”
“Do any of them ship to Brasil?”
http://cgi.ebay.com/Christmas-Story-Leg-Lamp-Night-light-New-Box-/190533170891?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2c5ca976cb#ht_500wt_1156
Did your rat show up from Ze?
yep… I tried sending down 2 pool rafts. 20 dollars a piece, and about 300 in shipping charges. I’ll just pick up a leg lamp at Bloomies home store next time i’m in Chicago. Btw 4 lions.. Good flic if your lookin for a black comedy.
i want to send the rat but how do i get it up there without you seeing that my real address is:
parents basement
c/o unemployed
Cleveland, OH
clio had my number all along…..
Groove: Sorry if I offended; my post just reveals my prejudice, I suppose, about accountants. I like your posts: they are funny, quirky, and humble–not traits I typically associate with accountants.! I promise I’ll reform my accountant-bashing ways:)
“i want to send the rat but how do i get it up there without you seeing that my real address is:
parents basement
c/o unemployed
Cleveland, OH”
Is it too hard to put the return addy as:
Double-wide
c/o Ted
Kaczynski-ville, MT
ROFLMAO… That’s after i place the FRAGILE:COCAINE sticker on the box.
“Groove: Sorry if I offended; my post just reveals my prejudice, I suppose, about accountants. I like your posts: they are funny, quirky, and humble–not traits I typically associate with accountants.! I promise I’ll reform my accountant-bashing ways:)”
no your spot on most accountants are tools (sonies is right too), dull and detail particular.
Non partner CPA’s are the most dry beige canvas you will meet. if your able to sit though a lunch with one of them without stabbing you ballz with a fork to keep you from running to the kitchen and putting your cheek on the fryer then i will count that as a miracle.
because i can bend an excel spreadsheet, full nelson an access database and have uncanny knowledge of sales tax laws in most states doesnt define what i do away from my desk. *thankfully
I have actually benefitted from G’s data, JMM’s analysis and Clio’s insight as every one else’s. It is not a beauty contest folks learn to be a bit tolerant. Actually often someone’s wrong assessment and others corrections have made some points clear and easier to note. Our diversity of opinions is what enriches the debate.
Now, Groove I have to say I am shocked about you too! Not that there is anything wrong with it…lol
“Now, Groove I have to say I am shocked about you too! Not that there is anything wrong with it…lol”
What the Heck did everyone think i did for a living?
jeeez, typing on a re blog out of my parents basement doesnt bring home the bacon people.
I don’t know. I thought of you as a sport reporter, someone running a business, say roofing or something like that. BTW, one of the funnest people I know is an accountancy professor and she is also quite hot : )
G- I like your data. I loved it when you used to just pop into a discussion and drop some super relevant data, like the support staff for 007.
More recently you seem to have become more cranky and irritable.
I admit that I don’t have a business background and could benefit from a little analysis from you now and again
I value you as a cc regular but feel that you are too good to involve yourself in interpersonal pettiness
“What the Heck did everyone think i did for a living?”
I thought you might be an English professor.
I like to think of anon (tfo) and G as Jacob and the ‘Man in Black’ from Lost respectively.
G has the most useful and informative posts, Groove77 has the most amusing posts, hd has the most persistent posts, Bob has the most
Groove… Logically I assumed you were in baby cart sales.
nah Clio.. U just don’t partake in the more intelligent convos because 4 semesters at Stamford and the NAR licensing class didn’t prep u for it.
@G
ya see? Its all just words here; as effective as WTO rulings.
Wanna make a bet? How is the bet enforceable?
insults? sound and fury signifying nothing…
Don’t wait for happy hour. Have a sud and enjoy the weekend.
“whats with the 4 posts a day thing now? i cant keep up and forget where i posted and what i posted.”
Sorry Groove. I am occasionally posting a 4th post if something sells because I find not as many people are into the “sold” posts (as it’s just really an update- and not so much a discussion.) So I am just kind of sticking it in there between “normal” posts.
There have been a lot of closings recently on properties we have covered in the last year so that’s why you’re seeing the 4th post more often.
“What the Heck did everyone think i did for a living?”
I thought you might be an English professor.”
Not only did that make me LMFAO it made me spit coffee..
Didn’t have time to congrats at the time due to cleaning up the keyboard. 😀
“There have been a lot of closings recently on properties we have covered in the last year so that’s why you’re seeing the 4th post more often.”
oh really?! – and yet everyone here keeps stating that “nothing is selling”…..
“Didn’t have time to congrats at the time due to cleaning up the keyboard. :D”
Thanks, Bob.
Market Conditions: Almost 7% of Illinois Mortgages are Foreclosure
http://cr4re.com/charts/chart-images/MBAStatesLoansinForeclosureQ1.JPG
Only Florida, Nevada & New Jersey are faring worse. Significant drop off in percentage of foreclosures after these “Big Four”.
Market Conditions: Almost 15% of Illinois First-Lien Mortgages are Delinquent
http://cr4re.com/charts/chart-images/DelinquentQ12011Percent.jpg
“Market Conditions: Almost 15% of Illinois First-Lien Mortgages are Delinquent”
We’re worse than even Arizona and California? Wow.
This is big shadow inventory.
“There have been a lot of closings recently on properties we have covered in the last year so that’s why you’re seeing the 4th post more often.”
oh really?! – and yet everyone here keeps stating that “nothing is selling”…..”
Yes- Clio- there were 1464 closings last month. Imagine that?
Crib Chatter has covered hundreds of properties over the last 6 to 12 months. I should hope some of those would sell. And that IS what we’re seeing.
It’s taking FOREVER for many of them to close, though. Some properties have been pending for months.
“I thought you might be an English professor.”
LOL and slightly offended Chris M
“Groove… Logically I assumed you were in baby cart sales.”
ZE! city mini is the best next UppaBaby Vista and for travel Quinny Zapp.
“I am occasionally posting a 4th post if something sells because I find not as many people are into the “sold” posts ”
Bri Bri,
I love the “SOLD POST” i love to see how it turned out i just dont post on them because i usually said my piece the first or second time around.
G,
I just found this analysis I did last year to see how fast contracts die. FWIW, looks like they don’t fall off very fast in the first few weeks.
Looked at contracts written between 3/2/10 and 3/8/10
3/10/2010, 9:09 AM – 926 contracts
– 3/11/2010, 2:39 PM – 946 contracts
– 3/13/2010, 6:32 AM – 944 contracts
– 3/23/2010, 6:57 PM – 920 contracts
– 4/25/2010, 8:56 AM – 853 contracts
– 4/30/2010, 9:02 PM – 845 contracts
– 5/10/2010, 8:37 PM – 833 contracts
– 6/13/2010, 4:38 PM – 812 contracts
Thanks, Gary. That would be the way to do it. What a PITA, though.
I would expect that more distressed means more fall out. That’s what I’ve seen in cruder contract to sales comparisons.