Market Conditions: Are People Really Fleeing Illinois?
Maybe some of the Chicago Tribune reporters are secretly reading Crib Chatter because they just published a story looking into the belief that people are fleeing Illinois, which we’ve been chattering about a lot this year.
From the Tribune:
When the Tribune looked at the demographics of people who moved out of state from the Chicago area — Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties — it found the income and racial breakdowns for this group generally mirrored the patterns of the overall population in the area. Most of the movers made $50,000 or less in income, and most were white non-Hispanic, according to census survey data collected from 2013 to 2017.
Those who left the area were more likely to be young; the largest group, 28%, were in their 20s when they moved away. Census data shows that people of this age have the highest moving rate nationally.
People moving from the region to neighboring states tended to earn a bit less and have fewer years of schooling than those who moved farther away, the data shows. Those moving to non-neighboring states also skewed a bit older.
Of the black residents who moved out of Cook County, 85% stayed in Illinois, compared with 77% of white residents leaving Cook.
The number one destination for those leaving Illinois in the last decade?
Indiana.
Other Midwest states are also popular along with the Southeast, including Florida.
Census data on commuter flows indicates that roughly a fourth of all employed people who live in Lake County, Indiana, work in Illinois. So even though people like Thacker may be trading driver’s licenses and voting places, they often remain connected to Chicago.
Incidentally, though Lake County is often portrayed as a beneficiary of Illinois’ woes, the county has actually been losing population recently as well. The decreases are small, but Lake has been shrinking since 2010.
According to the Tribune, Chicago has shrunk 20,200 since 2015. It has lost 35,600 black residents while it has gained white, Latino and Asian residents.
Where’s everyone going?
For black Chicagoans who leave, it’s the Chicago metro area, followed by Atlanta, St. Louis, Indianapolis and Houston.
For white Chicagoans who leave, it’s the Chicago metro area followed by St. Louis, Phoenix, Minneapolis and Denver.
The Tribune says the Chicago metro area extends to both Wisconsin and Indiana.
Christine Percheski, an associate professor of sociology at Northwestern University who studies changes in U.S. family life and has analyzed census reports, surveys and other demographic research, said some people certainly move because of taxes or crime rates.
But the biggest reasons people usually give for moving, Percheski said, are jobs (or shorter commutes), schools and to be closer to family. People also seek out available housing that fits their needs, she said, whether that is more space for a growing family, a smaller place because children are grown, or a more affordable option.
“Population decline for a city as big as Chicago or a county as large as Cook County is probably not driven by small changes in taxes or crime rates,” Percheski said.
According to the article, most people leave for jobs or schools. Some also leave for more affordable housing such as the couple in the article that rented in Pilsen before buying in Indiana.
Additionally, this year’s census data is going to be key as preliminary reports for the first half of the year show tremendous statewide job growth which should indicate that more people are moving to the state than leaving.
We will see if things are starting to turn around.
But someone is living in the thousands of new apartments that are going up all over Chicago. Are they all locals or are they moving to Chicago from elsewhere?
You can read more of the data, along with some great charts in the Chicago Tribune article.
Is the “exodus” really even a thing?
There’s a lot of talk about an ‘Illinois exodus’ [Chicago Tribune, by Cecilia Reyes and Patrick M. O’Connell, September 25, 2019]
