Market Conditions: Chicago Sales Fall 7.7% in August on Top of a 5.1% Decline Last Year

The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with August sales.

Despite a plunge in mortgage rate to 3 year lows, sales still fell.

The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales decrease 7.7 percent with 2,543 sales in August, compared to 2,754 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in August was $289,900 up 3.5 percent compared to August 2018 when it was $280,000.

August sales since 2007:

  • August 2007: 2923 sales
  • August 2008: 2078 sales
  • August 2009: 1927 sales
  • August 2010: 1486 sales
  • August 2011: 1787 sales
  • August 2012: 2209 sales
  • August 2013: 2850 sales
  • August 2014: 2414 sales
  • August 2015: 2701 sales
  • August 2016: 2844 sales
  • August 2017: 2791 sales
  • August 2018: 2754 sales
  • August 2019: 2543 sales

August median price since 2007:

  • August 2007: $305,000
  • August 2008: $297,500
  • August 2009: $229,900
  • August 2010: $200,000
  • August 2011: $192,500
  • August 2012: $200,000
  • August 2013: $245,000
  • August 2014: $269,500
  • August 2015: $271,000
  • August 2016: $271,000
  • August 2017: $284,000
  • August 2018: $280,000
  • August 2019: $289,900

“There’s some hesitancy among consumers right now, with concerns regarding the yet-to-be-unveiled city budget, continued talks of a market downturn and ongoing international trade wars,” said Tommy Choi president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and broker at Keller Williams Chicago – Lincoln Park.

“However, the data reflect that the market has stabilized, and opportunities are still there, particularly as historically low mortgage rates persist. Market time is down, suggesting buyers who are looking to buy continue to act quickly, and median sales price has ticked up, so they’re willing to pay for what they want. Those in the market, but on the fence, will benefit from trusting their REALTOR® to understand pricing strategy and negotiation tactics.”

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 3.61% in the month, down from 3.77% in July 2019 and down from August 2018’s rate of 4.55%.

“While long-term consumer sentiment remains positive, the short-term outlook is cloudy,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois.  “However, the Fannie Mae housing purchasing index remains strong in large part from expectations of declines in interest rates. Thus far, the impact on the Chicago and Illinois housing markets has been muted with modest price increases expected to continue.”

Statewide, it took 45 days to sell which was the same as last year. Inventory declined 5.1% to 60,149.

Sales dropped 12.8% over the last 2 years and it was the lowest level of sales in the last 5 years.

The housing market seems to have come to a screeching halt in some neighborhoods despite near record low mortgage rates and the best job market in 20 years.

Are buyers spooked by the possibility of future property tax increases?

Illinois median home prices increase in August; sales lower [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, September 19, 2019]

49 Responses to “Market Conditions: Chicago Sales Fall 7.7% in August on Top of a 5.1% Decline Last Year”

  1. “ongoing international trade wars”

    yeah I’m sure the suckers buying Chicago real estate give two shits about the price of Tea in China…

    Sabrina nailed it…

    “Are buyers spooked by the possibility of future property tax increases?”

    yes… it is absolutely killing the market and eliminating a ton of would be buyers

    electing a socialist mayor who has to bow to the union thugs that run this town isn’t going to fix the problems either, you really think she is going to be able to cut services more than rahm already has? hah, nope! Tax hikes galore to fill that ever growing billion dollar hole going forward. All so retirees can move out of the state… brilliant

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  2. “socialist mayor”

    Riiigggghhhtttttt

    Hardly, she’s just like her mentors Richie and Rahmbo.

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  3. snoooooze……wake me up when we are less than 2,000 sales…..this is a little dip off the top.

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  4. ““socialist mayor”

    Riiigggghhhtttttt

    Hardly, she’s just like her mentors Richie and Rahmbo.”

    She’s not a socialist, she’s a progressive. The two overlap in some places, and in some places, they are polar opposite.

    If anything, the socialist aspects of her progressive ideology is meeting fiscal reality. There’s just no money to open all those centers for at risk LBGTQ+ youths in the city. That was one of her campaign promises. But there’s no money. Hmmmmm…..fiscal reality, or progressive ideology. one of the two is always going win.

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  5. “you really think she is going to be able to cut services more than rahm already has?”

    No mayor could cut services and find $800 million. Rahm couldn’t either which is why he raised taxes. There are going to be new taxes. There have to be. But what gets taxed? That’s the question.

    She is in a tough place. Any mayor would be.

    What retirees are moving out of state? Have any retirees stayed in Illinois over the last 40 years? My grandparents left in 1975.

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  6. Something has come up so there won’t be a new post on Wednesday.

    There are a lot of price cuts now so I’ll cover some of those on Thursday and Friday. If you don’t sell in the next 6 weeks, you’re likely stuck until January/February. The sellers are getting more aggressive.

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  7. What retirees are moving out of state? Have any retirees stayed in Illinois over the last 40 years? My grandparents left in 1975.

    Growing up, I did have a crazy uncle retire to Northern Wisconsin FULL TIME. I think my aunt was pissed. But my grandparents, my parents and their friends all stayed. They are older now- so no longer snowbird- but they all never sold and moved. Id actually argue the opposite – it will be surprising the number of retirees who will stay in Illinois -due to roots and family -despite abusive governance at all levels.

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  8. Old people staying is the wrong metric.

    The right metric is the 22 year olds who get a job in Chicago and end up leaving. From my experience this rate is far too low. Much easier to pay pension costs by expanding the pie than by raising what everyone pays. As is the states in a bit of predicament – hike taxes followed by more people leaving followed by needs to hike more taxes.

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  9. I can’t believe the property taxes at some properties at this time.

    Wife and I are looking to move back towards downtown and some of the 3 beds we looked at ( 1211 and 1201 prairie in south loop for example ) Had property taxes of 35-37k a year, and assessments of 1800.

    That would mean paying 6 grand a month BEFORE i pay my mortgage. No way in heck i’d ever do that. And I can afford it – I just refuse to do it. I’m sure many other young professionals in my position feel the same.

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  10. The wife and I are looking to moving back towards downtown.

    Some of the taxes on theses places are absolutely nuts. 35-37k for a 3 bed in the south loop ( 1201/1211 prairie), with 1800 in assessment on top.

    6k a month before paying my mortgage? no way in heck i’d pay that. And I can afford it. I just refuse to do that out of principle. I imagine a lot of young professionals feel the same way.

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  11. Sorry if i look dumb with the double post, but I don’t post that often and haven’t had a restriction posting in a while.

    I think I made the same point both times? Taxes are too nuts.

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  12. Riz (whose posts I look forward to reading) posted “…I think I made the same point both times? Taxes are too nuts.”

    I believe Riz is posting abt 3000 sq ft 3 bedrm/3ba units in One Museum Park West. Imo the 1201 units ’18 RE taxes reflect roughly 2% of what mkt value was before higher end condo mkt stalled. The assessments reflect roughly $0.60 ft/mo. I defer to those w/experience in higher end condos but ime neither of those seem out of line.

    Fwiw I did see #6105 @ 1211 a smaller 3bed/3ba (2385 sq ft) ‘penthouse’ unit for rent asking $8500/mo ($3.56 psf/mo) & unit’s for sale too currently asking $1.349 mil (w/’18 taxes of $39,917 or roughly 3% of ask, supporting Riz’s conclusion!) Still it looks like renting for 2 yrs w/ 3 annual 1 yr ext’n options at a negotiated fixed rent might be a better approach for Riz. Jmo

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  13. Today Sabrina believes “The housing market seems to have come to a screeching halt” and “The sellers are getting more aggressive” — notions that only six weeks ago would have brought forth scornful, taunting rebuke from . . . Sabrina:

    “I love it that you are all so negative. Wow. It means great things are coming for Chicago. I lived in San Francisco during the dot-com boom. What is going on in Chicago right now reminds me of that time. Tons of jobs. Construction. People moving here. Big thinking winning out. The city is being transformed.”

    http://cribchatter.com/?p=26158#comment-1013755

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  14. “scornful, taunting rebuke”

    Think Ukrainians must be putting on the pressure.

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  15. Sean posted “…The right metric is the 22 year olds who get a job in Chicago and end up leaving. From my experience this rate is far too low….”

    I’m easily confused so I ask did Sean mean to post “…this rate is far too high…”? It makes sense to me that we citizens benefit if the (generally highly educated) 22 yr olds who are recruited to work in Chicago continue to work here for longer than a short stint, paying into IL’s tax systems

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  16. “What is going on in Chicago right now reminds me of that time. Tons of jobs. Construction. People moving here. Big thinking winning out. The city is being transformed”

    Sigh.

    Wojo, wojo, wojo.

    What is going on in Chicago right now DOES remind me of San Francisco in 1999. All those new tech workers aren’t buying property. They haven’t been for the last 5 years. Instead, they are renting in the thousands of luxury apartments being built everywhere.

    At least once a week companies announce yet another round of new jobs here.

    It’s the best economy I’ve ever seen in Chicago. Go out in the West Loop on Randolph or on Fulton Market during the week after work. It’s packed with people.

    The Old Post Office welcomes its first tenants next month which will be another turning point for the city.

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  17. I agree that the economy is booming.

    Seems to me that people are buying more of everything. I have a coworker who is building a lake house. Other friends who i’d consider ‘frugal’ are buying luxury cars and taking expensive vacations.

    What perplexes me is *where* all the money is coming from…Is it the new start up kids? Are small business owners just making more? I know doctors aren’t making anymore. My wife is an attorney and her salary has barely changed in the past 4 years.

    I make a very comfortable living as a physician but I think i’d be stretching myself If I jumped the gun on a 1.6 mil condo with taxes and assessments mentioned above…And yet the open houses for these units are packed , and the ‘good ones’ sell pretty fast. And I’m not seeing old people at these open houses…It’s a lot of late 30’s/early 40’s folks..What do all these people do that they are making probably north of 500k / year?

    I guess chicago is maybe finally catching up to the coasts in terms of cost of living.

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  18. https://www.urbanrealestate.com/property/1201-S-Prairie-Unit-4201-Chicago-IL-60605-6W3TkW3pBWX5.html

    That’s the unit my wife is ‘in love’ with. I know the aesthetic isn’t for everyone, but it’s a well run building and the unit has great views, minus the west, which is barely staring into NEMA.

    If I’m doing my math right, it would run me around 11-12 k a month on a 30 year mortgage for that place. That’s a lot of money for a 3 bed / 3 bath in the south loop if you ask me. Is this the new normal?

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  19. Hey Riz – That’s not the new normal. That’s been the price for 1201 Prairie for the last 10 years. Well maybe a little lower as that building never sold as well as its bigger brother next door.

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  20. Steve,

    Maybe you’re right. I bought a short sale unit in 1211 prairie for 350k in 2012 though…At the time I remember the 3 beds being closer to 1m and assessments much lower around 1100. But then again that was almost 8 years ago.

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  21. Riz, it is mostly DINKs. Dual Income, No Kids. Chicago is a major city with a lot of high income professionals – Tech, consulting firms, PE, I-banking, sales, corporate middle managers/execs, biglaw, etc. Combine that with quite a bit of family money floating around for down payments…

    Also, people stretch themselves financially way more than you think… they get on that hamster wheel of keeping up with the Joneses….

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  22. Russ,

    That’s what I thought originally. I figured lots of 200k-ish each, earning professional couples with no kids, or maybe older people who made their money and are retiring in the city..

    But tbh most of the people i’m seeing at these 1.5 mil range open houses are maybe a few years older than me / late 30’s, with 1-2 kids, a dog, and in some cases seems like only 1 spouse works.

    Family money might be a factor I guess.

    I think you’re spot on about people stretching themselves financially. A friend of mine from med school is an internal medicine doc ( great field but not the highest earning ) and he recently bought a 1.2 mil townhouse, while making around 300k as a single earner. No college fund for his kid. Minimal contributions to 401. Hasn’t paid loans back yet. This seemed absolutely nuts to me.

    I was raised with the ‘don’t let housing take more than 30% of your post tax income” mentality..which doesn’t seem to resonate with a lot of millennials. Met a couple who recently moved into NEMA in the south loop and their rent is 4400 a month. The wife very casually said ‘I can’t believe we spend half our paychecks on rent, but that’s life in the city”. They are both from the east coast. Maybe that’s the reality out there, but that seemed crazy to me.

    I still remember living at 125 E 13th st. in the south loop, right off prairie, and paying 1200 for a 1 bed with parking. Lol those were the days.

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  23. “If I’m doing my math right, it would run me around 11-12 k a month on a 30 year mortgage for that place. That’s a lot of money for a 3 bed / 3 bath in the south loop if you ask me. Is this the new normal?”

    The NEMA 3/3s which are about 1750 square feet are renting around $7500-$8000 a month for the “view” units on the high floors. So you’re paying a premium to “own.” And your finishes are, most likely, newer in NEMA. And never any special assessments.

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  24. Sabrina,

    Agreed on everything -and i’ll add on that NEMA has insane amenities.

    But, if you’re a young couple with a baby (and another on the way!), 1750 sq. ft v 3000 is a HUGE deal.

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  25. Also –

    Is it just me or is it insane we are even discussing spending 8k for 1700 sq feet literally a few blocks away from the absolutely awful roosevelt redline stop, the peet’s coffee where 2 women were mugged at gunpoint a few weeks ago, and the trader joes where a kid was stabbed last week?

    For you older posters – remember a few years ago when the homeless guy beat a woman senseless outside the jewel and essentially made her a vegetable?

    The south loop is great but there is no denying the sketchiness along roosevelt…Hence my hesitation at spending significant money/tax/assessment in the neighborhood.’

    TBH, hate to say it, but the area around mccormick is gentrifying quickly and seems quieter / safer.

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  26. “I think you’re spot on about people stretching themselves financially.”

    I can absolutely assure you people stretch themselves financially. Many, many people live close to the edge; everyone from the dog groomer, to the middle class family, to your UMC doctor and lawyer friends. Consumer credit keeps hitting all times which is real world statistical evidence that consumers are borrowing and spending. Heck, even I just threw down what I consider to be serious cash for a few pieces of real wood, non-particle board pieces of furniture, to accommodate my growing family (I’m secretly LDS!). It made me nervous to spend that much actually. It was a little disconcerting to see the difference in price between the MDF (if you can even call it that) Room Place version of my purchase and the US made real wood version. That aside, as I tell my friends who often lament at others in our social circle, securing most fancy homes is a big mortgage, and behind most fancy cars are car notesm and behind every vacation is the credit card bill when you get home. I know a partner at a consulting firm that just spend his entire bonus plus a lot more on a mid-life crisis car financed at 0% over 72 months. what a complete waste of money. I got another peer who makes six figures easily, and large company cut off bonuses last year; the spouse went out and job a part-time job because they couldn’t afford to live and pay their bills without that $30k bonus or whatever it was. They also take vacations to cali, fl, dells frequently, drive two new cars, and pay five figures in real estate tax.

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  27. “Is it just me or is it insane we are even discussing spending 8k for 1700 sq feet literally a few blocks away from the absolutely awful roosevelt redline stop, the peet’s coffee where 2 women were mugged at gunpoint a few weeks ago, and the trader joes where a kid was stabbed last week?”

    absolutely bonkers, to be honest
    I can’t imagine spending that much on housing, ever, even if I had two houses, let alone a 1700 sqft shoebox

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  28. “remember a few years ago when the homeless guy beat a woman senseless outside the jewel and essentially made her a vegetable?”

    Not to diminish how horrible it all was, she did not end up as a vegetable. PTSD, no doubt, but not PVS or anything like that.

    And that guy…some of that was a criminal justice failure rather than about the neighborhood. He’s the sort of dude who should be serving life for 3 strikes.

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  29. “He’s the sort of dude who should be serving life for 3 strikes.”

    Welcome to the Republican……oh wait. Sorry. I already used that joke a few weeks ago, it triggered you.

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  30. Dude, the Rs can’t have guys getting put in jail for hitting women–they’d lose their voting base.

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  31. “and the trader joes where a kid was stabbed last week?”

    Link please. Googling it turns up nothing. Perhaps I’m putting in the wrong search terms: stabbing, trader joe’s, Chicago. Gives me nada.

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  32. “Is it just me or is it insane we are even discussing spending 8k for 1700 sq feet literally a few blocks away from the absolutely awful roosevelt redline stop, the peet’s coffee where 2 women were mugged at gunpoint a few weeks ago, and the trader joes where a kid was stabbed last week?”

    You’re really naïve Riz.

    Ever see the crime reports for Lincoln Park, Gold Coast or Lakeview? Nearly every weekend someone is mugged, mostly at gun point, of their phones/purses. Plenty of $8,000 apartments in those neighborhoods.

    Over the summer, a tourist was standing outside the Drake Hotel on her phone and a car pulled up, a guy got out with a gun and told her to give him the phone. She complied.

    Completely brazen. It wasn’t at midnight or anything.

    There are million dollar condos right across the street in the Palmolive, one of the most exclusive buildings in the city.

    My advice to people is never live near a red line stop, frankly. All of them are awful.

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  33. “But, if you’re a young couple with a baby (and another on the way!), 1750 sq. ft v 3000 is a HUGE deal.”

    For sure.

    Another thing to keep in mind: there’s a big difference between what happens in a rental building and what happens in a condo building.

    You’d think in a luxury apartment building, people wouldn’t be loud, abuse the exercise room equipment, throw things from balconies, leave garbage strewn in the hallways. But they do.

    One of my friends lived in a luxury apartment building in Streeterville with the sky-high rents and it was pretty crazy. Renters just don’t care.

    So I’ve changed my mind. If you have a family, you should probably buy.

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  34. Sabrina,

    I wouldn’t call it naive, just that I feel like more sketch stuff happens around the roosevelt red line stuff than say the, clybourn red line stop. Or any brown line stop. Maybe it’s more of a red line issue than south loop issue.

    As far as the stabbing goes – It was hearsay from one of the folks at the last open house I was at. They were complaining about some skater kid stabbing / fighting with another one outside trader joes. Maybe it was exaggeration.

    Maybe it’s just me but I feel like I hear about something awful happening at that jewel every few months.

    I’ll hold strong that I think that roosevelt red line stop is more of an eye sore than the other ones, except maybe belmont, which also sucks. There is nice stuff, like a new molly’s cupcakes, that peet’s, 11 city diner, starbucks, etc, right outside of it, but the whole block is just always full of riff riff and is filthy.

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  35. Touching back on homedelete’s post about people stretching themselves, I guess it’s a lot more common than I thought.

    I got called into work last night and was complaining about the property tax / assessment on the 3 bed I wanted to buy and how I probably couldn’t afford it.

    The guy who was doing the case with me said “You’re telling me you can’t afford that 3 bedroom? come on” – I was pretty clear that If I bought it, my housing cost would tip a bit over 30% post tax income. ( just a rule i’ve always tried to stick to) –

    He was adamant that the ‘30%’ rule applies to PRE TAX income. This guy is spending about 35% of his PRETAX income on his mortgage and housing costs. This is probably a bit over HALF his paycheck.

    Do other people do this? I was absolutely blown away that someone so educated could be so financially stupid.

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  36. “He was adamant that the ‘30%’ rule applies to PRE TAX income.”

    That is the measure for “affordability” of housing, yeah.

    Here’s a doc that includes an explanation of the origin of that (along with a bunch of analysis of affordability metrics from 2006):

    https://www.census.gov/housing/census/publications/who-can-afford.pdf

    Excerpt:

    “The conventional 30 percent of household income that a household can devote to housing costs before the household is said to be “burdened” evolved from the United States National Housing Act of 1937. […discussion of evolution…] [T]he Brooke Amendment (1969) to the 1968 Housing and Urban Development Act, established the rent threshold of 25 percent of family income[,] that is, a family would be required to pay one-quarter of its income in rent. By 1981, this threshold had been raised to 30 percent, which today remains the rent standard for most
    rental housing programs.

    “Because the 30 percent rule was deemed a rule of thumb for the amount of income that a family could spend and still have enough left over for other nondiscretionary spending, it made its way to owner-occupied housing too. [discussion of how Fannie/Freddie underwriting made this the de facto loan underwriting standard]”

    So, yeah, 30% of gross household income is the “limit” of “affordability”. I, too, cannot imagine spending that much if one has a one-percenter HHI (ie, $435k+) without generational-type wealth backstopping it.

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  37. Right. This guy is a neurosurgeon making around 1 mil a year. He’s spending around 25k a month on housing, while bringing home around 50k a month. Totally crazy.

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  38. $25k/month is still plenty to live very well on. Which is, I’m sure, how he sees it.

    Also, whatever principal he pays (at least $5k/month, prob more) is technically savings, and I’m sure a guy like that thinks of it that way.

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  39. “$25k/month is still plenty to live very well on. Which is, I’m sure, how he sees it.”

    It’s only plenty to live on if you’re a pleb. You can’t afford even the entry level fractional jet. heck there are guys on the bench of any NFL team who spend more than $25k a month on expenses other than housing.

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  40. I wrote a response on residual income, but I guess filter blocked it. A 50% debt ratio isn’t the end of the world when you are making $100k/month vs someone making $5k/month.

    For most of the “working rich” their expenses outside of the PITI don’t increase all that much after a certain point. Having $50k/month left over for most people is still plenty to live on/save unless you have a wife who thinks she deserves a new Birken bag every month or something.

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  41. lol @homedelete.

    Russ, I like your points about the ‘working rich’..I save more aggressively than most
    (mostly because I’m afraid eventual socialization / government take over of healthcare will leave me with a significantly lower income mid to late career)and I don’t want to have to sell my house or stop paying for my kids college tuition if my salary drops. I usually advise most people in healthcare to think this way..

    but maybe it doesn’t apply to your nouveau riche start up founder / legal partner/ consulting executive crowd.

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  42. “I wouldn’t call it naive, just that I feel like more sketch stuff happens around the roosevelt red line stuff than say the, clybourn red line stop. Or any brown line stop. Maybe it’s more of a red line issue than south loop issue.”

    I do an annual analysis of crime in Chicago. There are two clear patterns: 1) it totally correlates to median household income. So, yes, Lincoln Park has less crime than lower income areas and 2) it’s a function of human density. So the central business district and Streeterville and all busy streets have more crime. L stops have more human density.

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  43. I spend a lot of time thinking about housing costs – and not just because I’m in the business. My daughter and her husband just almost doubled their rent in San Francisco for a nicer place. I’ve seen people get in over their heads also. I remember during the housing crisis seeing all the expensive homes go into foreclosure because some “rich” person assumed they would always make as much money as they were when they bought it.

    For me – and I try to explain this to my daughter and her husband – it should never be about what you can afford but what is the best use of the money. It’s why I drive a 9 year old, mid-priced, car. Maybe my kids will need the money someday or maybe my grandkids. Or maybe I want to give a bunch of money to cancer research.

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  44. “(mostly because I’m afraid eventual socialization / government take over of healthcare will leave me with a significantly lower income mid to late career)”

    Healthcare is a ‘human right’. They question is how far will ‘they’ go to enforce that right – will they force you to provide healthcare? Will they force you to practice medicine against your will? Will they prevent you from entering private practice (Bernie’s medicare for all plan banned health care plans and doctors from accepting private payments for anything covered by medicare, which is everything except experimental and cosmetic surgery (and nursing homes). It remains to be seen what the new batch of authoritarians will dictate from washington.

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  45. I just posted my September market update: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2019/10/chicago-real-estate-market-update-september-less-bad-than-last-11-months/

    Sales were down by a very small amount though IAR will overstate the decline as 4.2%.

    I’m still not that concerned about the market other than the increase in condo inventory with an accompanying increase in market times. But it’s not that bad. Now, if that trend continues then there could be hell to pay next year.

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  46. “I’m still not that concerned about the market other than the increase in condo inventory with an accompanying increase in market times. But it’s not that bad.”

    Thanks Gary.

    Seems like the worst market is anything over $1 million. It’s brutal out there. There’s simply WAY too much inventory and they keep building. There are new luxury buildings going up all over the north side and downtown. And now they may build that super tower next to the Tribune Tower condos with even MORE luxury condos.

    Why?

    Are they even selling Tribune Tower? I’d like to see the numbers on that building. The sales center has been open a month or two now.

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  47. Sorry Sabrina, I couldn’t resist reposting this paragraph I’ve posted so many times before:

    “All through the decade [1920’s], but especially during and immediately after the Florida fever, there was an epidemic of ambitious schemes hatched by promoters and boosters to bring prosperity to various American cities, towns, and resorts, by presenting each of them, in sumptuous advertisements, circulars, and press copy put out by hustling chambers of commerce, as the “center of a rising industrial empire” or as the “new playground of America’s rich.” Some of these ventures prospered; in California, for example, where the technique of boosting had been brought to poetic perfection long years previously, concerted campaigns brought industries, winter visitors, summer visitors, and good fortune for the businessman and the hotel-keeper alike. It was estimated that a million people a year went to California `just to look and play”-and, of course, to spend money. But not all such ventures could prosper, the number of factories and of wealthy vacationists being unhappily limited. City after city, hoping to attract industries within its limits, eloquently pointed out its “advantages” and tried to “make its personality felt” and to “carry its constructive message to the American people”; but at length it began to dawn upon the boosters that attracting industries bore some resemblance to robbing Peter to pay Paul, and that if all of them were converted to boosting, each of them was as likely to find itself in the role of Peter as in that of Paul. And exactly as the developers of the tropical wonderlands of Florida had learned that there were more land- speculators able and willing to gamble in houses intended for the polo- playing class than there were members of this class, so also those who carved out playgrounds for the rich in North Carolina or elsewhere learned to their ultimate sorrow that the rich could not play everywhere at once. And once more the downfall of their bright hopes had financial repercussions, as bankrupt developments led to the closing of bank after bank.”

    Only Yesterday: An Informal History of the 1920’s by Frederick Lewis Allen

    http://xroads.virginia.edu/~hyper/Allen/ch11.html

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  48. “especially during and immediately after the Florida fever”

    What’s the rate of return if you’d bought at the peak of the fever and held to today?

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  49. “What’s the rate of return if you’d bought at the peak of the fever and held to today?”

    Far less than if you had bought stocks and held those for 100 years. And little carrying costs either.

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