We won’t have the Chicago May sales data for several weeks yet but indications from other parts of the country are showing a much weaker than expected May due to the tax credits pulling buyers into the market ahead of the normal spring buying season.
Everyone knew there would be a slowdown, but much like December of 2009, the first time the tax credit expired, it appears that sales have slown dramatically (again).
From the Wall Street Journal:
Home-purchase contracts signed in New Jersey last month were down 25% from a year earlier, estimates Otteau Valuation Group, an appraisal firm in East Brunswick, N.J. New Jersey’s state legislature is considering its own tax credit for home buyers.
In the Minneapolis area, the number of newly signed home-purchase contracts in the week ended May 22 was down 30% from a year earlier, according to the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors. “Our buyers, if they haven’t purchased, have just decided to wait,” said Brad Fisher, president of the local Realtor group.
In the Phoenix area, contracts signed in May plunged 26% from a year earlier, local Realtor data show. In Denver, the drop was 27%. Northwest Multiple Listing Service, which covers 21 counties in Washington state, including the Seattle area, reported Friday that contracts signed in May also were down 27% in its region.
In another sign of weak sales, the number of homes on the market is growing again. ZipRealty said the number of homes listed for sale in 26 major metro areas across the U.S. in May was up 1.7% from April. In a typical May, the inventory doesn’t increase from April, according to Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm.
Apparently, Manhattan isn’t seeing much of a lull in buying:
“Now people seem to feel it’s okay to spend some money,” said Pamela Liebman, CEO of Corcoran Group, a big broker in Manhattan.
Even the always positive National Association of Realtors sounds not so optimistic:
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, estimated that contracts signed for home resales in May were down 20% to 30% from a year earlier. He expects June and July to remain fairly weak and will be watching nervously for signs of a rebound in August or September. “Housing cannot just depend on [government] stimulus forever,” Mr. Yun said.
Remember, 96% of all mortgages in the first quarter were backed by Freddie, Fannie and FHA.
As David Stevens, the head of FHA said last week:
“This is a market purely on life support, sustained by the federal government,” he said at the Mortgage Bankers Association conference. “Having FHA do this much volume is a sign of a very sick system.”
May home buying activity looks worse than expected [Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty and Nick Timiraos, June 4, 2010]
FHA home financing volume sign of “very sick system” [Businessweek, Jody Shenn and John Gittelsohn, May 24, 2010]