Crain’s must be reading our minds (or this blog) because this week it covers the very topic you all have been debating: when the Chicago housing market will bottom and/or recover.
Chicago-area existing-home sales will begin rising again in 2011, hitting about 95,000 units in 2013, according to a forecast by Irvine, Calif.-based John Burns Real Estate Consulting. That’s well short of the levels seen during the housing boom from the late 1990s to 2005, the boom’s peak, when 146,082 homes sold. And while a tax credit and foreclosure sales have breathed some life into the market, the firm projects new-home sales will fall even further this year and next.
“We’re not at all optimistic,” says Perry Bigelow, CEO of Aurora-based developer Bigelow Homes. “There are just too many difficult things that have piled up on us.”
As for how much further prices have to fall, it seems that some experts believe we haven’t hit a bottom yet in the entire Chicago area market.
With sales sluggish, home prices will continue a decline that began in 2006, according to Brookfield,Wis.-based Fiserv Inc., which calculates the widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. An index of Chicago-area single-family home prices will fall 5.7% from third-quarter 2009 to third-quarter 2010 and edge up 1.2% over the following year, Fiserv Chief Economist David Stiff says.
Chicago housing market won’t recover until 2013 [Crain’s Chicago Business, Alby Gallun, Feb 1, 2010]
Meanwhile, new home sales in the city continue to be abysmal. In fact, if you exclude those condo high rises that did auctions and price cuts to sell units, the number of sales would be even more shocking.
“We see normalcy in the Chicago market probably being established in 2013,” says Tracy Cross, president of the Schaumburg-based consulting firm. Normalcy, he says, “will more or less look like ’93 to ’98 or ’99,” not the boom of the last decade.
Sales in the city fell 12.5% in the fourth quarter, to 21 units, while suburban sales rose 4.6%, to 563 units. For the year, city builders sold 848 homes, a 42.7% decline from 2008, and suburban sales totaled 2,905, a 40.5% drop.
New-home sales: ‘The industry has been basically obliterated’ [Crain’s Chicago Business, Alby Gallun, Feb 1, 2010]