If They Build It, You Will Buy It: 2628 W. Homer in Logan Square
This 4-bedroom new construction single family home at 2628 W. Homer in the West Bucktown neighborhood of Logan Square has been on the market since February 2011.
In that time, it has been reduced $100,000.
Built on a 24×125 lot, the contemporary style home has a wall of glass facing the street.
3 out of the 4 bedrooms are on the second floor with the fourth in the lower level.
The kitchen has dark wood and white modern cabinets with quartz counter tops and stainless steel appliances.
There is also a butler’s pantry with a wine cooler (refrigerator?).
The listing also says the house comes with an intercom/security and camera system.
What’s the market for new construction homes west of Western Avenue?
Melissa Govedarica at Sergio & Banks has the listing. See the pictures here.
2628 W. Homer: 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, 3800 square feet, 2 car garage
- Sold in October 2010 for $135,000
- Originally listed in February 2011 for $799,900
- Reduced several times
- Currently listed at $699,900
- Central Air
- Taxes are “new”
- Bedroom #1: 16×14 (second floor)
- Bedroom #2: 16×12 (second floor)
- Bedroom #3: 13×10 (second floor)
- Bedroom #4: 13×12 (lower level)
Who buys these places in fringe areas? I don’t understand the appeal.
Basically all the negatives of living in Chicago with few of the amenities. Crap schools, few amenities, questionable safety.
I can see living in Logan Square if you’re renting and hard up for cash, but why buy a “luxury” home for a big family?
West of Western is the only problem that I can see here. We toured this house and it is very nice. Great use of tile, nice floorplan, cool lighting, nice attention to details like the ceilings, etc. The master bath spans the width of the house and has a really neat layout – split and spacious.
A similar house by the same builder that is east of Western just sold for $900,000 — it may have a few add-ons like a rooftop deck that this property doesn’t, but the biggest difference in my opinion is the Western divide…
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2336-W-Mclean-Ave-60647/home/18751443
On the other hand, I’m surprised that this is as low as it is given that other homes by the same builder in the same area (relatively) have sold in the 7’s.
As for us, we couldn’t see ourselves west of Western.
Seems like a lot of house for the money… It’s really ugly on the outside, but the interior looks nice. I’m not a big fan of the area, but that’s just my preference. The neighborhood itself is nice.
There are a bunch of these that have sold in this area. The lots/teardowns sell for around $100k-150k, 5 months later this boxy brick and glass box is put up and sells for $700k. I’m not sure if it’s the same developer, but they seem quite successful in this particular area. East of Western the lot is probably $100k+ more so the margins are likely the same.
There are 3 in a row near this one that sold in June…
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1756-N-Rockwell-St-60647/home/28920736
Just to add — the McLean home (that sold for $900K) is on a lot that is only 100′ deep as well — this house is on a bigger lot.
The interiors of all these look pretty well done. The exteriors could use some help.
Is this the same developer as the one making the “LEED” homes in somewhat fringe areas at a slightly lower price point? Seems likely.
I’m with Jon, have a really hard time with west of western around here I would pay the land delta to be east of western (even with the short lots). I don’t know about this specific block, but the area north of armitage in teh triangle w/calif+milwaukee still has some issues.
I walked from the other side of Western to this place, but they’d erroneously advertised an open house on Redfin. Anyone who can afford this much house wouldn’t live on this street. I didn’t feel safe walking down that street (and I’m 225 lbs). Some mixed commercial one block east on Homer with razor wire above their walls. Trash and weeds all over the street and sidewalk. I can only imagine that someone who already lives in the neighborhood would take this place down.
Thought about ‘unsafe’. I was looking at a place on the 300 block of W Goethe (in Old Town). We thought it was a nice place, seemed on the fairly priced side. Then we walked to the corner of Sedgwick and took a look around the street and crossed this place off the list. I wondered if I was being narrow-minded.
Then I saw this last week:
http://www.skylinenewspaper.com/news/09-07-2011/Three_arrested_after_gunshot,_car_chase
(second story)
That could have been my wife… That home is worth zero.
chimaki: I don’t think that this is the LEED builder
Looks to be the same builder here as well (you can tell from signature lighting/tray ceiling/tile/master bath and this one is $644,900. Doesn’t bode well for the home here.
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1701-N-Artesian-Ave-60647/home/17946195
We looked at another home in Noble Square by the same builder and even that area was more palatable. Ok – I’ve officially overposted on this string!
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1701-N-Artesian-Ave-60647/home/17946195
How much does it cost the developer to build this house? I wonder if he would be willing to build it on a lot that someone owns….
(third story, sorry)
I live west of Western. Given that, I’ve prepared well for the inevitable. I’ve taken insurance policies on the wife and kids for the impending stabbing/shooting/ dismemberment/murder that will occur. In fact, I’ve done the same for a couple of the neighbors and and their kids. We try to shy away from most minorities, especially those that drive work trucks or minivans. We’re not white, but you can’t be too safe once you cross the magic 2400W marker. Sometimes I wonder if it would be easier if we were annexed by Austin and a big fence put up. I guess it would mean taxes going up for the remaining east part of Chicago. At least we can contribute something. In summary, it’s easy to live west of Western if properly prepared.
really nice house, not so great of a street I have no idea if this will sell inthis market, but those other smart-tech homes are selling for 350k in way worse parts of town and those are about 2400 sqft so my guess is that this one sells at 600k
Same developer who’s done a number of homes in this area that have sold quickly. You can tour the Homer home in this sponsored YoChicago video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itR1KOHgkII
I’ve been in the area frequently and never experienced any problems.
Developer is Ultimate Homes. Great product, selling like hotcakes. Fantastic attention to detail.
I’m going to guess that he’s sold maybe 30 SFH’s in the past 3 years and a bunch of condos as well. Hottest developer in Chicago imho.
I have to say that I love this place. There are some really good design elements going on here. I love the facade and the rooms are light filled, even the lower level. That said, one has to wonder what people will think of it in 10-15 years. Will we look back and say “what the hell were we thinking”? There is so much swanky, stylish contemporary design that probably won’t pass the test of time. Maybe there needs to be a budget for $75-100k of renovations/remodeling in 2022?
clio on September 13th, 2011 at 10:54 am
How much does it cost the developer to build this house? I wonder if he would be willing to build it on a lot that someone owns….
—–
Im gonna say 350 – 400K in hard costs including the tear down
A*Man – I get the sarcasm and I hear you. Its largely a matter of 14-24 year old males. East of western, 0.25% are trouble makers. West of western, 2.0% are trouble makers. But the result is a crime rate 8-times higher…
in re 1756-N-Rockwell-St-60647:
Two mortgages totaling $650,000 on a $725,000 property. seems like the party is back on again! gringo – fire up the gravity bong!
I don’t live near here but it seems a little North to be right in the path of Humbolt violence. Close enough to Western IMO.
Just Sayin.
I agree with Boi
The place is very pretty and modern but I think even in 10 years, you’ll have a hard time selling it without modifying the kitchen and bathrooms.
I guess…unless you go for a timeless look, (think Christopher Peacock), all kitchen and bathrooms need to be rennovated every 10-15 years.
The last time I walked west of Western in this area someone threw a bottle at me out the window of their car as they drove by. Only a sucker would buy this house.
“East of western, 0.25% are trouble makers. West of western, 2.0% are trouble makers. But the result is a crime rate 8-times higher…”
2% is waaaaaaaaaaaay low, imho. There are different levels of trouble, but i’d say the number is a lot closer to 35-40% of random, up to no good, nonsense doing young-uns.
someone once threw a bottle at clambo outside his digs downtown
I like this place, esp from the front. those are crazy big windows
though it would feel odd sitting in all that swank looking out the big window onto that street.
“2% is waaaaaaaaaaaay low, imho. There are different levels of trouble, but i’d say the number is a lot closer to 35-40% of random, up to no good, nonsense doing young-uns.”
This is the problem with minorities, I wish someone would do something about them. Luckily we have those enclaves of safety, such as in and around Water Tower place on the weekends.
hahhaa – put another way, without invoking race in anyway whatsoever – THAT’S City living!!!
(ps the guy doing the thefts in my area, they posted a pic of him on the OIPA board, seems to be a crankhead looking white dude, so see, it’s not about race, it’s about city living!)
“#A*Man on September 13th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
“2% is waaaaaaaaaaaay low, imho. There are different levels of trouble, but i’d say the number is a lot closer to 35-40% of random, up to no good, nonsense doing young-uns.”
This is the problem with minorities, I wish someone would do something about them. Luckily we have those enclaves of safety, such as in and around Water Tower place on the weekends.”
“someone once threw a bottle at clambo outside his digs downtown”
It’s true – but I think crime outside of the palmolive is lower than western avenue (also, to be quite honest, I might have provoked them a bit by telling them to get out of my way)
“This is the problem with minorities, I wish someone would do something about them. Luckily we have those enclaves of safety, such as in and around Water Tower place on the weekends.”
Hmmm. Ironic joke? Or attempt at a put down? I honestly can’t tell. I can only say it’s a rainbow coalition of no good west of Western. Which is about 15 feet from where I live, by the by.
“though it would feel odd sitting in all that swank looking out the big window onto that street.”
My first thought was it would feel odd sitting in all that swank with everyone looking in that big window from the street.
A*Man – you seem awfully pissed that you live in the ghetto. There are better ways of defending where you live than bitter sarcasm and implying that others are racists. For example, you could speak from your experiences such as —
I am so happy that we live west of Western. Last weekend we ventured 2 blocks west to Humboldt Park and we only saw 2 prostitutes – the kids have now learned that they need to work hard to make a living. We saw just 4 drug deals which makes me think that drug use is declining. We really weren’t scared of the strung out dude at the park because we are faster than him and he appeared to be unarmed. Having to be fast instills in our kids the importance of athleticism. We played tennis and dodged only 1 bullet – it may have just been a firecracker, I don’t know. My baby was mauled by a pit bull, but we plan to have more children. All the boarded up commercial space makes me think I may want to go into business. I turned to my wife and at the same time we uttered “we are living the dream!!!”
See how much more effective that is…
“My first thought was it would feel odd sitting in all that swank with everyone looking in that big window from the street.”
yeah, that too. but it kind of looks tinted, no?
Im surprised that everyone likes this property so much. IMO its a very poor attempt at detail oriented contemporary architecture. And given the builders past work, its just the same uninspiring, generic product wrapped in a different exterior.
“A*Man – you seem awfully pissed that you live in the ghetto. There are better ways of defending where you live than bitter sarcasm and implying that others are racists. For example, you could speak from your experiences such as —”
I apologize, it must be the painkillers from yesterday’s mugging and beating in the back alley that’s clouding my usual optimism. I should have my local free clinic put me on the ones i was prescribed last week when I was shot in the leg.
“yeah, that too. but it kind of looks tinted, no?”
Oh good, no need for CH to put on pants, then. I like the look of the house but can’t live that way (b/c of messiness, not lack of pants, necessarily).
this is our builder that we bought from over the summer in Lakeview. we have been very happy with the quality of the work.
their name is Ultimate Home and they have a few other open projects -however I believe most are in West Town area.
Oops sorry didn’t see Joe already mentioned the builder’s name! Regardless, my other comments still hold true 🙂
West of western, in a better neighborhood (still don’t love the amount of traffic on the particular block), less interesting house, similar list, under contract:
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2421-N-Rockwell-St-60647/home/39767466
what about if it were tinted/mirrored. would that keep eyeballs out or is it the case that a light on at night makes it all visible.
“Oh good, no need for CH to put on pants, then”
Sorry, I had skeptic in mind. Bad memory day. Dunno CH’s pants situation.
might have made sense if there was a jen beale tie in
I grew up nearby and my baby sitter lived a few doors down from this house/lot.
Didn’t we establish that south of Armitage is Humboldt Park?
“might have made sense if there was a jen beale tie in”
don’t worry Jennifer Beals wouldn’t be cought dead west of western, so another reason to not buy this house
per redfin’s agents notes,
“Tinted glass on front southern exposure”
J Beals is half black and from 82nd and Indiana. no way she’d run scared from the chickenheads in this hood. lol
“J Beals is half black and from 82nd and Indiana. no way she’d run scared from the chickenheads in this hood. lol”
Her college residence and affiliation were also pretty equivalent to west of western. Also, since we’re on the subject of her educational background, I trust everyone has seen this:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-12/news/chi-teacher-accused-of-taking-video-underneath-womans-skirt-20110912_1_substitute-teacher-skirt-faculty-members
please don’t talk about jennifer beals. she is a very close family friend and didn’t ask for this type of attention on this site. let’s get back to discussing real estate.
“How much does it cost the developer to build this house? I wonder if he would be willing to build it on a lot that someone owns….”
Didn’t you say you own your own construction company?
And wasn’t your earlier advice that it would cost $400k-1mil to build a basic 2500 sq ft house in Chicago?
The buyers have spoken, they like these types of homes, and in this neighborhood…Sold…
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1818-N-Fairfield-Ave-60647/home/13415943
chukdotcom on September 13th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
“How much does it cost the developer to build this house? I wonder if he would be willing to build it on a lot that someone owns….”
Didn’t you say you own your own construction company?
And wasn’t your earlier advice that it would cost $400k-1mil to build a basic 2500 sq ft house in Chicago?
Im still sticking with 350-400K including the cost to tear down and haul away the tear down as hard costs. This does not include the LOT or commissions.
Sold…
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1741-N-Artesian-Ave-60647/home/17945996
Sold…
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2538-W-Moffat-St-60647/home/28920737
“Im still sticking with 350-400K including the cost to tear down and haul away the tear down as hard costs. This does not include the LOT or commissions.”
And I’d say you are correct and that clio was way off.
Does the developer have a website?
“Im still sticking with 350-400K including the cost to tear down and haul away the tear down as hard costs. This does not include the LOT or commissions.”
“And I’d say you are correct and that clio was way off.”
And so a builder would, pretty readily, be willing to build me one of these if I offered what? $450K? $500K? (If I had my own land and there was no commission.)
Man I hope real estate prices remain stagnant for the next decade or so, i’d love to have a house like one of those for 750k someday
1738 N Rockwell, sold 11/30/10 for $770K. Under contract before video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kuR17TCtOo
1756 N Rockwell, sold 6/7/11 for $725K.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRNZMD0EsYU
“And I’d say you are correct and that clio was way off.”
chukdotcom, wtf are you talking about – I made no prediction on what it would cost to build this house. I made a comment about rehabbing a POS that HD posted about awhile ago. I have no idea how much it would cost to build this house – that is why I asked (see my post at 1054 am)
” I made no prediction on what it would cost to build this house.”
Someone posting in your name said that building a house in Chicago would cost $400k to $1,000k.
You really should change your passwords and logout when you leave your desk.
“The buyers have spoken, they like these types of homes, and in this neighborhood…Sold…”
Any idea why this particular house has not sold and why they’ve had to drop list by $100K?
clio: “please don’t talk about jennifer beals. she is a very close family friend and didn’t ask for this type of attention on this site. let’s get back to discussing real estate.”
Nobody is going to jump on this? Man…
that upskirt story has nothing to do with clios alleged family friend. though it does make me wonder how the teacher got caught, and scratch my head at his ingenuity.
“chukdotcom, wtf are you talking about – I made no prediction on what it would cost to build this house.”
No, this is a luxury 3800 sq ft house. You indicated it would cost 400k-1000k to build a 2500 sq ft builder grade home (HD’s teardown). Are you saying you think it would cost MORE to build HD’s house than this one?
“You really should change your passwords and logout when you leave your desk.”
would be a pain in the ass for the rest of the teenagers in club clio
For your reference:
Here was the house HD was referring to (sorry, it was 1900 sq ft):
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3942-N-Lowell-Ave-60641/home/13459089
And here was your response to what it would take to rehab it:
http://cribchatter.com/?p=11213#comment-178307
And when you were called out on your numbers, you responded with this:
http://cribchatter.com/?p=11213#comment-178318
Any more questions?
chukdotcom, the cost to build and the price a contractor/home builder gives you are two separate things. Perhaps you don’t understand real estate. Let me explain it in terms you may understand: A hair colorist can charge up to 300 to color someone’s hair. Is that because the dye costs that? Of course not – the dye actually costs less than 10 dollars. There is a thing called overhead and training, etc.
Now if you apply the same concept to a home builder, you will realize that no builder is going to build a house for you in chicago for less than 150/sq ft – no way. If there is someone willing to do that, check and double check because they are not including a lot (maybe no appliances, fixtures, landscaping, roof, etc.). This is the truth and those are the numbers (however, I will concede that THEIR costs might be closer to 75/sq foot – but who cares – they will NEVER give you their costs).
Oops, my response is stuck in moderation due to too many links. But here is the house in question that clio said would cost 400k-1000k just in replacing the house (not demolition, land, etc).
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3942-N-Lowell-Ave-60641/home/13459089
“clio on August 16th, 2011 at 10:21 am
HD – the breakdown of the costs would be as follows:
40-50k – demolition
15-25k – architect plans
400-1000k new house
Honestly, why the f would you want to renovate that POS? It would cost in the hundreds of thousands (probably 300k plus to make it nice). More importantly, you will likely need that in cash (no mortgage buffer).”
http://cribchatter.com/?p=11213#comment-178307
“Any idea why this particular house has not sold and why they’ve had to drop list by $100K?”
This is what I do know: This property was originally listed at $799k in Feb. It was relisted a few times and recently to $699k Sept 7 from $749k. Quite a few similar properties in close proximity have sold for between $650k and $850k. Do I know why this one has not sold yet? Nope. The data supports the developers price though, hard to argue that.
“nothing to do with clios alleged family friend”
V v little, sure. But *nothing*?
When I saw the pics of this house – I thought for sure I had toured it. Apparently, there are many. A young off-the-boat polish couple put in a contract the day we were there. It was nice but to the comment below…..in 10 years will this be the new version of the McCrapbox we will be talking about?
“Will we look back and say “what the hell were we thinking”? There is so much swanky, stylish contemporary design that probably won’t pass the test of time.”
correct Dz, I overspoke while trying to insulate her from all this attention. she didn’t ask for it you know.
So anyone know why there are so many famous early 80s movie actresses from Parker? Jennifer beal s and Daryl Hannah? Surely there is a back story?
A local – developer does not have website but u can either post ur email and I’ll send to u or contact Sergio and Banks as they are the agent for all of their properties.
When it comes to McCrapboxes, I prefer the more traditional look they were churning out in 2000-2005….
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2049-W-Erie-St-60612/home/12673590
anyone else notice that every single home below 600K in Logan on redfin is pending? There goes the neighborhood 🙁
2049 erie, traditional and east of western
A home similar to the Homer one at 1848 W Erie recently came to market at $849,900.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a02OK5a9Ol0
this builder gets poor reviews on http://www.bbb.org … sorry, sabrina does not allow the link but go through google search “ultimate homes chicago” … any comments about their quality?
no wonder they hired joe zekas
HD.. I’m cutting off the bottom of a 2 liter pepsi bottle, right now. Bucket of water already filled. Great idea…. Best is you can just go into any walgreens and make one in a pinch. Ok, maybe not as discreet, to use on the street, as a one hitter, but much smoother hits…
ss,
Your statement is inaccurate as anyone can see by visiting the BBB site.
BBB doesn’t have “reviews.” People lodge complaints with the BBB which has a process for resolving them. In 7 of the 8 complaints noted (no idea how many homes were involved, or if there was more than one) BBB found that the builder made a good faith effort to resolve them.
Sonies,
Do you ever cease being a poisonous troll? Never did have the guts to follow through on that video you promised me, did you?
tell ya what joe, when I can afford to buy an Ultimate Home, home, I’ll do your video… for now I have better things to do, like make money to afford one of those homes down the line
oh, (to explain above) because i’m going to need every ounce of help I can get when selling my CMK property
paid shill making accusations of trolling, funny.
Sonies,
I’ll throw in a free video to help you sell it.
‘paid shill’
sales numbers suggest otherwise.
you dont think JZ is slick enough to get pair regardless of sales? seems to me that’s why he switched to the marketing side
typo, get paid.
anyone order pizza from ranallis lately? pepperonis are huge, like coasters, and thick. almost overwhelming.
CH.. I wasn’t reefering to anyone in particular. Industry as a whole. It’s amazing how bad the numbers keep rolling in. It’s like stinky dog shit that doesn’t harden and stop smelling… Just can’t get up for any air.
I dont believe you werent reefering
Thanks Joe, hopefully you don’t retire before then
“anyone else notice that every single home below 600K in Logan on redfin is pending?”
The rehab victorian house we’ve chattered about twice on Central is still available (not pending.) It’s listed at $449,000.
http://cribchatter.com/?p=11312
Joe Z,
Thanks for posting that link to 1848 W Erie. That one got my attention for my own personal search but haven’t seen it. Like the interior but not crazy about the brick on the outside. But the wife doesn’t like the white cabinets either. The video is intriguing.
So I assume this developer is unrelated to Ultimate Homes?
Ultimate Homes had previously not been very aggressive about promoting its brand. It has, I’m told, decided to change that, and adopt a different name.
That said, I’m not certain whether Noah Properties is Ultimate Homes’ new name, although I think it is.
“In 7 of the 8 complaints noted (no idea how many homes were involved, or if there was more than one) BBB found that the builder made a good faith effort to resolve them.”
Is having 8 complaints over this span of time (and considering their workload) normal? Is it high?
Also, to be fair, per BB, they tried to resolve the 8th complaint, but not to the homeowner’s satisfaction.
The developer is the best in the city. What are his next projects?
So, does this mean that the days of “urban pioneers” is over?
Judging from some remarks early in this thread, the idea of buying a good home in a poor nabe, “sitting on it” till properties surrounding it are rehabbed and the neighborhood increases in value, then selling it or pulling equity for rehab or other purposes, no longer holds appeal.
This was the thing to do in the 80s and 90s, and resulted in the improved reputations of Lincoln Park, Wicker Park and other areas.
But no such luck for “West Bucktown” right?
Not until the next boom curious georgette, and your guess is as valid as anyone else.
“But no such luck for “West Bucktown” right?”
All it will take is enough new high paying jobs and the whole city will gentrify. That would be the natural way to grow it. Problem is, most of the gentrification of the past decade was more of the debt-fueled variety, instead of income. De-gentrification is more likely without a sharp increase in high paying employment.
I love the fear of “west of Western” and this block. I live just west of this block. I paid 180k for the most incredible 2-bed loft that would easily cost 300k east of western. And what price to I have to pay? I have to walk a whole five minutes to Bucktown. I would happily do that…but I prefer the immediate area. Revolution brewing, boiler room, masada on the way, 90 miles, bonsoiree… this area is a lot cooler than Bucktown if you ask me. You’re between the western and california blue line stops…an easy walk in either direction. That block is a very good block. No trouble on that block at all. Lots of nice families. But I like that the fear is still alive…it helps to keep property values over here sane. I would never pay what they’re asking for this joint. I toured it. Crazy noise coming from HVAC system which was upstairs for some reason. Not a big fan of those basement window-wells in front. And I prefer a yard out back. But to each his own. I contemplated buying the church at 1657 n. rockwell (whole giant church for like 400k)…but even that was too much for my budget. I like real bargains. And like anywhere in the city, you’ve got to check out the block you’re about to buy on. And if you’re afraid of this block on Homer, maybe you shouldn’t be living in the city.
I think West Bucktown has remained gentrification resistant because of the projects located back there. Same is true of parts of Wicker Park. Add in the dodgy schools, and there can’t be much optimism that buying a house and sitting on it will produce any sort of gains.
You can buy a house and sit on it all you want – that project isn’t going anywhere.
In the future nearly everywhere except a handful of neighborhoods will look like albany park, or bridgeview. mark my words.
“G on September 14th, 2011 at 9:47 am
“But no such luck for “West Bucktown” right?”
All it will take is enough new high paying jobs and the whole city will gentrify. That would be the natural way to grow it. Problem is, most of the gentrification of the past decade was more of the debt-fueled variety, instead of income. De-gentrification is more likely without a sharp increase in high paying employment.”
Last night, 5 blocks from this house:
http://www.suntimes.com/7650515-417/humboldt-park-attack-leaves-boy-14-on-life-support.html
This should put all of A*Man’s sarcasm into perspective. And it probably won’t help this house to sell.
“In the future nearly everywhere except a handful of neighborhoods will look like albany park, or bridgeview. mark my words.”
Really? Let’s place a friendly wager.
Albany park is not englewood, vlajos. Albany park is diverse both racially and economically, crowded, *generally* lower income, with a moderate amount of crime, and a mix of owners and renters. Same for bridgeview. Again, this is not a ‘hell in the handbasket’ argument. It’s simply an observation the middle class is diaappearing, the country is becoming more diverse racially and more crowded as people flee the exurbs and inner cities.
“Vlajos on September 14th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
“In the future nearly everywhere except a handful of neighborhoods will look like albany park, or bridgeview. mark my words.”
Really? Let’s place a friendly wager.”
homedelete, this country is becoming POORER, sad to say.
Incomes have dropped to 1997 levels, and we are, most of us, buried under piles of personal debt, most of all mortgages (and 2nds and HELOCS) and student loan debt.
Student loan debt is sinking our younger generation. The sickest part of this is that most of the “degrees” these poor people bought, with their very lives, will not get them any kind of job, let alone the kind of job you need to pay off $80K or more worth of debt. On behalf of a lovely young relative of mine who is very beloved to me, I am so sick with fury over the obscene swindle we’ve perpetrated on our young people that I could,……well, don’t worry, I’m a mild-mannered woman in middle years and I’ve never owned or handled a weapon in my life and never will.
But this I will say: maybe in the poorer future that awaits this country, we WON’T be like Albany Park or other crime-plagued “diverse” neighborhoods. Maybe we’ll recover our senses and realize that all we really have are our ethics and morals and manners and knowledge, not to mention our work ethic, our kindness, our flexibility, our grace under pressure, and our ability to make the best we can of whatever situation presents itself.
Our forbears built a lot more with a whole lot less.
As the entire country grows poorer, and many more people drop out of the middle class permanently and still more others are reduced to living in tents, we will have less and less tolerance for people who plead poverty and deprivation as an excuse for uncivilized, criminal behavior. Maybe we’ll recover our manners and our decency.
I sure hope that we can all find the “better angels” within us, because we are surely going to need them.
“In the future nearly everywhere except a handful of neighborhoods will look like albany park, or bridgeview. mark my words.”
I didn’t say those high paying jobs will appear, only that they would do the trick. New gentrification ain’t happening without them, and degengentrification will occur in their absence.
“On behalf of a lovely young relative of mine who is very beloved to me, I am so sick with fury over the obscene swindle we’ve perpetrated on our young people that I could”
Why can’t people ever take responsibility for their own decisions?
BridgeVIEW or BridgePORT? One is a city in itself, one is a neighborhood of Chicago (like Albany Park, etc.)
BTW did you ever notice that there is no park named Albany in Albany Park? (Apologies to Andy Rooney)
“BTW did you ever notice that there is no park named Albany in Albany Park? (Apologies to Andy Rooney)”
Sure. And there’s no park named Irving, no park named Rogers, no park named Hyde, etc.
http://www.chicagoparkdistrict.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/parks.detail/object_id/1c01b756-2cc5-4f41-af72-11a7f9c29a3b.cfm
I stand corrected…there it is in the very NE corner of the city!
chuck, people are woefully uneducated in this country on matters of finance. If you can get credit, many people will take it. There isn’t an in-depth analysis.
It is difficult to do a cost benefit analysis on the costs of education. Many people are being told that it is ok to take on the debt, historically it has paid off in the long run. The problem is most of this analysis is done with past performance, where we had a better economy and a much lower cost of education. But in the end it’s not the students but the system that fails them. If the Federal Government were not guaranteeing so much reckless lending then we would not have nearly as many people in dire straights once they graduate.
Our student lending system is going to have to be re-done and the people ripped off by “institutions of higher learning” will need to have at least some debt forgiven. For example, there are a lot of people going to sh!t law schools and graduating $150,000 in debt and finding they cannot get a job as a lawyer. This is going to be a tragedy until we get these diploma mills under control.
I’m not saying people should be given a free pass on student debt, but there are a lot of other factors at work, including the fraud that many colleges are participating in in terms of their employment and salary figures. It is just disgusting and with respect to student loans I blame the system more than the students. That’s just my 2 cents.
“Maybe we’ll recover our manners and our decency. ”
Fat chance in this whiskey soaked town. Instead of some return to victorian-era propriety you’re more likely to see more drunken/drugged boorish behavior and empty pints of Dmitry on the ground. I know I’ve been seeing them a lot more lately.
When people see the the Horatio Alger story of upward social mobility for the sham and myth it really is, don’t look for their outlook on life to improve much.
But then again cynics and realists are better citizens, IMO. Far better than idealists who try to sculpt society into what they think it is possible of becoming.
“But then again cynics and realists are better citizens, IMO. Far better than idealists who try to sculpt society into what they think it is possible of becoming.”
RUSSIAN SOCIETY IS AWESOME
You are a dumb monkey about to get schooled that your version of progressing society isn’t universally shared. 😀
“For example, there are a lot of people going to sh!t law schools and graduating $150,000 in debt and finding they cannot get a job as a lawyer.”
And those people that are dumb enough to do that deserve what they get. The system didn’t fail them. Their brains did.
Just because they make it easy to take on huge student loans doesn’t mean you should. People should be smart enough to figure that out for themselves.
“Just because they make it easy to take on huge student loans doesn’t mean you should. People should be smart enough to figure that out for themselves.”
Yes but it is undeniable there is a non-stop propaganda machine by many different sectors of our society that any sort of increased educational attainment is worth it regardless of the cost or return. That kind of thinking was valid 30 years ago yet the propaganda and perception persists.
“Yes but it is undeniable there is a non-stop propaganda machine by many different sectors of our society that any sort of increased educational attainment is worth it regardless of the cost or return.”
It is worth it if you are smart, and do well at a good school. But that is only for the top 15-20% or so. The problem is, everyone thinks they are in the top 15-20%.
If you get 1000 on your SAT’s, don’t bother going to college. People that get 1000 and pay 35k a year to go to some crappy school that lets them in deserve it for being dumb.
The ironic thing is that you’re too dumb to realize how dumb your comment is.
“And those people that are dumb enough to do that deserve what they get. The system didn’t fail them. Their brains did.
Just because they make it easy to take on huge student loans doesn’t mean you should. People should be smart enough to figure that out for themselves.”
“It is worth it if you are smart, and do well at a good school. But that is only for the top 15-20% or so. The problem is, everyone thinks they are in the top 15-20%.”
Nope even for smart people the returns increasingly aren’t there.
Come out with 120k in debt for some 30k/year job instead of maybe learning a good technical trade that pays just as well or better?
I have some friends in the trades who do quite well. Nice house, nice pension, kids in college with it paid for (or at least part of it).
If you’re smart you don’t need a post-secondary AACSB degree to make it. Sure if you want to be a stiff at some MNC or some lawyer then yeah. But for most jobs increasingly those jobs are scarce and increasingly even the top-25% in their class of UIC or UofI I suspect are having a tough go of it.
“It is worth it if you are smart, and do well at a good school. But that is only for the top 15-20% or so.”
Really? I’m not seeing this. You can get into Harvard Law School or Harvard Business School and end up driving a cab afterwards (which happened to a friend of mine.) To me- the huge loans that people take out now are just not sustainable- to ANY of the schools.
It’s funny because 5 years ago Suze Orman used to say there was “good” debt and “bad” debt. The “good” was school loans and mortgages. She has since changed her tune. I have seen her counsel students NOT to go to the high priced prestige school because they’ll never get out of the debt it costs to go there.
(oh and nice house I don’t mean nice house in the city but quite a bit aways. most of the tradespeoples houses in the city aren’t up to CC GZ standards, but are still livable nonetheless)
“The ironic thing is that you’re too dumb to realize how dumb your comment is.”
Really? Why don’t you enlighten me with some more of your wisdom like you did earlier today?
Chuk fails to realize that while the oldest partner in my firm graduated law school with $3,000 in debt, my boss graduated law school with $30,000 in debt, and the attorney in the office next to me graduated with $100,000.
Amazing how the wide availability of credit increases the cost.
Look at the rise in college tuition vs. others
http://partners4prosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/College-Tuition-Chart.png
I saw this stat the other day:
In 1974 there were 75 MFA programs in America.
In 2011, there are 864.
Average total cost to get the degree: $80,000.
This is only sustainable with an endless supply of government loans. Cut off the money and you cut off the debt.
Do not give dogs what is sacred; do not throw your pearls to pigs. If you do, they may trample them under their feet, and then turn and tear you to pieces.
“Really? Why don’t you enlighten me with some more of your wisdom like you did earlier today?”
“Chuk fails to realize that while the oldest partner in my firm graduated law school with $3,000 in debt, my boss graduated law school with $30,000 in debt, and the attorney in the office next to me graduated with $100,000.”
Yep. In that Fortune article Chris M posted awhile back about Wharton MBAs- it said in the 1940s class (that first iconic class)- not a single one graduated with ANY debt. Of COURSE they had the world in their hands!
“Really? I’m not seeing this. You can get into Harvard Law School or Harvard Business School and end up driving a cab afterwards (which happened to a friend of mine.)”
Well, they either didn’t do well, or you are full of shit. Which is it?
“To me- the huge loans that people take out now are just not sustainable- to ANY of the schools.”
Well, you are wrong. Again.
“I have seen her counsel students NOT to go to the high priced prestige school because they’ll never get out of the debt it costs to go there.”
More nonsense.
Loyola cost $14,000 when I started in the 90’s; $18,000 when I graduated; and it costs $32,000 a year now.
Amazing how colege grads were smart back then and suddenly became ‘dumb’ in the last 20 years according to chuk.
The nonsense world according to chuk: there are the smart, and the dumb. Chuk decides which is which.
If you study tuition increases- even at private colleges- you’ll see it only took off once the government made credit available to everyone. It’s truly shocking how much it costs to go to even a public university for one year with no end in sight to the increases.
“Chuk fails to realize that while the oldest partner in my firm graduated law school with $3,000 in debt, my boss graduated law school with $30,000 in debt, and the attorney in the office next to me graduated with $100,000.”
So? No one is arguing that the cost of education hasn’t skyrocketed. About 15-20% of people that are going to college are making a good move. The other 80-85% are not.
“Loyola cost $14,000 when I started in the 90’s; $18,000 when I graduated; and it costs $32,000 a year now.”
And? What is your point? Pay 32K and finish in the bottom of your class, and you are a moron. Pay 32k and graduate with a 4.0 and you’re all set.
“She has since changed her tune. I have seen her counsel students NOT to go to the high priced prestige school because they’ll never get out of the debt it costs to go there.”
In this economy the hiring is going to go up the ladder. Who is going to hire that UofI engineer for that 55k starting salary job when now they can get a Northwestern grad? Who is hiring architects? (noone) Who is hiring investment banking analysts? Few I suspect–tough to hire new blood when they’re downsizing like crazy.
Who is still hiring green thumb management consultants? Try telling a director of finance at a company why some expensive school grad is worth paying $75/hour for advice on running their business.
“Transition” jobs taken by the millenials who came out in 2009 through today are becoming semi-permanent. And who is going to hire the 24 year old grad who worked as a bartender or barista for a couple of years for an entry level position when they can get a younger fresher grad who will take longer to grind down and has the analytical skillset from school still fresher in their mind?
Big companies love 22-year olds because you can work them like dogs, pay them shit (relatively) and replace them with fresh 22-year olds when they burn out and quit. Sure the company invests a bit in you and you’re a net loss at first while ramping up your skillset, but from ages 23-24 all the way to 27-30 you’re a perfect drone. Or you work in an industry where the bootprint to the ass is more explicit like IB whereas it’s 2-3 years max (LOL).
“The nonsense world according to chuk: there are the smart, and the dumb. Chuk decides which is which.”
No. How you do in school decides which is which. What gave you the idea that I give people their grades?
Which 15-20% are making the ‘good move’? How you decide what is ‘good’ or ‘bad’. Is it grades? is is decided by income upon graduation? is it based solely on the cost of education? If you’re blaming for profits, sure, those suck. but that’s a small % of all colleges. Should they just shut down some of the schools you don’t like, like southern or northern? Please chuk, enlighten me.
As someone who has suffered though student loans, your blaming the victim nonsense is actually offensive.
Why should my generation be priced out of college or go into indentured servitude but your generation could attend U of I for $3,000 a year?
“So? No one is arguing that the cost of education hasn’t skyrocketed. About 15-20% of people that are going to college are making a good move. The other 80-85% are not.’
The friend driving the cab? THERE ARE NO JOBS CHUK!
Yes- it’s true. 20% or more of Harvard’s graduating class the last 2 years hasn’t had a job. Who the heck knows what they’re doing now. Most probably still haven’t found legal jobs.
And if you didn’t go to Harvard- good luck. You may NEVER practice law.
Oh- and for all you lawyers out there- check out this really great piece from 2000 about Harvard lawyers and the legal profession. Basically- how it sucks. And that was THEN- when the dotcom boom was still going and law firms were rocking.
I understood my lawyer friends and their “world” better after reading this.
“A woman who loved science fiction and crossword puzzles left law to sell cruises and is now a part-time secretary with a temp agency. “A failure, I know,” she says, “but I’m finding myself–and at least I’m out of the firms.” One partner at one of the country’s fanciest firms confides that he’s finalizing plans to quit his job. “I’ll go crazy if I stay,” he says. “But please don’t print anything more about me. If my plan folds, I’ll still need the firm.””
Read more: http://www.esquire.com/features/killing-lawyers-harvard-0800#ixzz1Xyt6mLSN
I’ve had enough of this absurdity. I’m going to watch some tv.
Public education- through our universities – was designed to educate the masses. And it did a great job of doing so for basically the last 100 years. The whole point of a Southern Illinois or a Cal State Fullerton was that you could pay a minimum amount and better yourself.
It wasn’t ever meant to be “limited” to the “top” 20% to 25%. That’s the whole point. It was meant to educate the masses.
Not any more.
“Which 15-20% are making the ‘good move’?”
How many times do I have to tell you? The top 15-20% of performers at the top schools. Waste your money at a shitty school and you deserve what you get. Nothing. Do poorly at a good school, and you deserve what you get. Nothing.
“Should they just shut down some of the schools you don’t like, like southern or northern?”
People should stop wasting there money going there, and they will have no choice but to shut down. Supply and demand.
“As someone who has suffered though student loans, your blaming the victim nonsense is actually offensive.”
Victim? Please. Didn’t they tell you how much school cost before you enrolled? Did they just spring a bill on you at the end? Did you do ANY cost benefit analysis before you enrolled?
Offensive? What is offensive is that you are whining about debt that you voluntarily took on. Not my fault you couldn’t get a good enough job to pay it off.
“Why should my generation be priced out of college or go into indentured servitude but your generation could attend U of I for $3,000 a year?”
My generation? I’m only a few years older than you.
“Yes- it’s true. 20% or more of Harvard’s graduating class the last 2 years hasn’t had a job. Who the heck knows what they’re doing now. Most probably still haven’t found legal jobs.”
Of course. I’m surprised its not higher. What % of the top 25% of graduates don’t have jobs? Zero? Go to a good school and do poorly, and you will be driving a cab. No ones fault but your own. No one “tricked” you into going there. You just weren’t smart enough to do well.
Not sure what is so hard for people to follow. It’s simple math. Not everyone can be in the top quartile.
“How many times do I have to tell you? The top 15-20% of performers at the top schools.”
How do you know you’re going to be a top performer? Doesn’t every valedictorian who goes to University of Chicago think they’re going to be a top performer there? Somehow- they are not. So the rest of them are not supposed to go there- or, better yet, wake up their junior year and say, “shit- I’m not a top performer after all but now I’m going to have $100,000 in loans when I get out and get that $35,000 a year job. I should drop out now.”
Chuk- you make no sense. I’m with HD. TV is better than this.
But the education system is going to implode. And not just at the Harvard’s of the world (as they are giving out full rides to those who can’t afford to go there) but it will be at U of I and the University of California system. The middle class can’t make a go of it anymore.
“Doesn’t every valedictorian who goes to University of Chicago think they’re going to be a top performer there? Somehow- they are not.”
Really? I bet most of them are. It’s funny how you take 1 example out of 1,000 and make it the rule. And even if they aren’t, who’s fault is it? The schools for “making” them take loans to go?
“Chuk- you make no sense. I’m with HD. TV is better than this.”
Which is why you will always be on the outside looking in. Just like HD.
“The friend driving the cab? THERE ARE NO JOBS CHUK!”
More nonsense. Here’s a hint. What is the unemployment rate among college grads vs non college grads?
“Public education- through our universities – was designed to educate the masses. And it did a great job of doing so for basically the last 100 years.”
Man, you are clueless. In 1940, 5% of adults finished college.
“It wasn’t ever meant to be “limited” to the “top” 20% to 25%. That’s the whole point. It was meant to educate the masses.”
It was?
“Not any more.”
There are more college educated people now than any other point in history.
“Which is why you will always be on the outside looking in. Just like HD.”
Yes! Thank goodness.
It’s so awful NOT to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars on real estate, and have complete freedom to move wherever I want whenever I want because I’m not stuck in a property I don’t want to be in, have a rent payment less than any mortgage, be building wealth through other assets while others are losing it and, actually, be debt free. My life is sooooo awful. HD and I- we’re SUCH losers.
TV awaits!
“Yes- it’s true. 20% or more of Harvard’s graduating class the last 2 years hasn’t had a job. Who the heck knows what they’re doing now. Most probably still haven’t found legal jobs.”
20 percent of HLS grads don’t have any job whatsoever? Cite please? Sounds v high.
What do you think the GI bill was for Chuk? Oh yeah- to educate the masses after the war. Free money. Then they gave out cheap money. Now the money isn’t so cheap.
My grandmother went to SIU and she grew up on a farm outside of Champaign. She went in 1936. I guess she was part of the 5%! Yay for her.
SIU’s enrollment went from 3500 in 1950 to 23000 in 1980. Why? Easy credit.
“20 percent of HLS grads don’t have any job whatsoever? Cite please? Sounds v high.”
At graduation. We’ve talked about this ENDLESSLY. Go and read the old threads.
Yes- it’s true. Graduates of the top 10 law schools in the nation cannot find jobs at graduation and may NEVER get a legal job (actually I knew some that got laid off in the dot-com bust and never went back to practicing law because they had been out only 2 years and the job market was so bad back then. They went into other things like teaching in grade schools.)
“It’s so awful NOT to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars on real estate”
Again, more nonsense. You only lost hundreds of thousands of dollars if you bought during a specific 3 year period in the last 100 years. Remember, not everyone bought between 2004 and 2007. Just like not every Harvard grad is driving a cab.
“have a rent payment less than any mortgage”
Any mortgage? Sure you do…
“be building wealth through other assets”
You mean like the stock market that has gone down more in the last 2 months than Chicago real estate has gone down in the last 1+ years?
“My life is sooooo awful. HD and I- we’re SUCH losers.”
Sorry to hear it.
“SIU’s enrollment went from 3500 in 1950 to 23000 in 1980. Why? Easy credit.”
I’m confused. You just said that it did a great job of educating the masses for 100 years, and now not so much. You do realize that 23000 is WAY bigger than 3500, right?
See, there’s the problem with just repeating stats without understanding them.
“20% or more of Harvard’s graduating class the last 2 years hasn’t had a job”
is VERY different from
“20 percent of HLS grads don’t have a job at graduation”
“At graduation. We’ve talked about this ENDLESSLY. Go and read the old threads.”
Yeah, I know. I don’t think the sources you cited then showed what you’re saying they showed.
“be building wealth through other assets while others are losing it”
Really? The S&P was at 1,455.22 at the start of this century. How’s that “building wealth” going for you? Most people that bought houses in 2000 aren’t 20% underwater. What good did “investing” the money you “saved” by not owning do you?
It’s funny how there are so many “bear market geniuses” in the housing market. Just like there was in the stock market in 2001.
Chuk: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again- we’re still in a bear market in stocks. We’ve been in one for 11 years. Anyone who wants to know what the housing market will look like another 5 years from now- look at the stock market right now.
Bear markets in stocks have lasted anywhere from 11 to 26 years since 1928. As I’ve said many, many times. Please go read something about the history of the stock market. I beg you.
Given the historical precedence, we’re likely going to be in a bear market in stocks for at the minimum of several more years. And that’s fantastic. I full expect the S&P to trade around 3 to 5 times earnings when we finally hit a bottom in stocks (as that is what it did in the 1970s.)
I am buying dividend paying stocks. They are paying me to hold them (and paying me quite well- in fact.) I have no trouble building my wealth this way. People have done it for a hundred years quite successfully.
And yes- we’re geniuses. When did John Templeton make his big bet on the stock market (that actually made him rich)? In 1937. When stocks had been in the dumps during the Great Depression, rallied, and then went into the dumps again. Of course- he had to hold onto his stocks for quite some time to see the return. Out of the 100 stocks he bought that year something like 13 of the companies actually went bankrupt and he made nothing. But you don’t need all of them to do well to be a winner (when you’re buying in those market conditions.) It made him a multi-millionaire.
I’m never going to be a real estate investor (ala Sam Zell was back in the day.) I respect people who go out and buy multi-unit buildings and become a landlord. I have no desire to do that. Real estate is simply a place for me to live and I’m quite happy in my rental living for well below what it would cost me to buy the same property (with none of the headaches nor the loss of my capital.)
“be building wealth through other assets while others are losing it”
Also- you’re assuming that my statement meant the other “assets” were stocks. Actually, you could have bought artwork during the last few years and made a killing or you could have bought either gold or silver.
The precious metals are in a bull market and have been for ten years.
Sorry- Templeton bought in 1939 – not 1937 and it was only 4 that turned out go completely under.
Great story! Great investor. How many would buy shares in companies already in bankruptcy? Not many.
“He took the strategy of “buy low, sell high” to an extreme, picking nations, industries, and companies hitting rock-bottom, what he called “points of maximum pessimism.” When war began in Europe in 1939, he borrowed money to buy 100 shares each in 104 companies selling at one dollar per share or less, including 34 companies that were in bankruptcy. Only four turned out to be worthless, and he turned large profits on the others.”
I also believe he had to borrow the money to buy the stocks from family and friends- as that was quite a lot of money for 1939.
I’m averse to equities given the false economy right now.
Some have caught my eye, though: NRT and SBR from this article:
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2011/06/02/7-little-known-companies-with-extraordinary-divide.aspx
But deals in equities are few and far between, IMO.
“Chuk: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again- we’re still in a bear market in stocks.”
Who cares? You are the one who said you were building wealth while others were losing it. And I know full well you were not in gold and artwork. Your “alternative” investment has done WORSE than housing since 2000, yet you are bragging about it.
“Please go read something about the history of the stock market. I beg you.”
I’ve made over $2mil in the stock market since 1994. That includes some pretty big up and down markets. I already know everything I need to know, thanks.
“And yes- we’re geniuses.”
No, you’re not. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Your time to be right is now. The “bear market geniuses” in real estate now are no better than the “bull market geniuses” in 2003-2007 that you love to mock.
Chuk- if you’re really in the stock market you would know this is a bear market. I’m glad we agree on something.
I’ve been dollar cost averaging and reinvesting my dividends. I’m doing fine. Thanks for being so concerned Chuk.
But wait- instead- I could have bought real estate with all my good hard earned money and it would have gotten me…um…nowhere! Instead- I’m painting the walls of my cheap rental apartment and living the American dream.
It’s great to be an American! No better place on earth. The opportunities we’re given are endless. They really are. Our companies are among the best run (and richest) on the planet and I can own that. I love investing in companies that have been around 100 years and are still innovative and making tons of money. It’s really not very hard. And it’s fun too. Why all the angst and worry over housing? I don’t get it. It’s just a place to live.
“I love investing in companies that have been around 100 years and are still innovative and making tons of money. ”
That’s a pretty short list.
Also housing is popular because the plebs love the leverage. It CAN make one go from rags to riches during boom times. Also works the other way, though.
Remember at the other end of the great depression they had to put a cap on leverage on equities to make it 2:1.
Funny noone in the press has mentioned that this could happen for housing. Maybe a lot of Americans think home ownership is an entitlement and that is politically unpalatable at the moment–doesn’t mean it will remain that way.
Much of these social engineering programs that were orchestrated in boom times is unsustainable once 3% growth goes out the window to keep the house of cards up. Just ask the Greeks.
“I’ve been dollar cost averaging and reinvesting my dividends. I’m doing fine.”
When did you start?
“I could have bought real estate with all my good hard earned money and it would have gotten me…um…nowhere!”
Better than being down 20%. Or are you saying you could beat the averages by 20%? If so, you should change this site to stockchatter because you are better than 99% of fund managers.
“Our companies are among the best run (and richest) on the planet and I can own that.”
The entire stock market is a 100% scam. One day you will understand.
“That’s a pretty short list.”
The exception is the rule with Sabrina. All Harvard Law School grads drive cabs, and the S&P100 is made up of all 100 year old companies because GE is in it.
“And I know full well you were not in gold and artwork.”
Actually- I am in gold but not artwork. I can’t afford that! But I bought the GLD when it launched in 2005. I wish now that I had bought more- but at the time it was already a decent percentage of my portfolio. Live and learn. I haven’t been as lucky investing in the gold stocks- but I’ve been dollar cost averaging those because their fundamentals are so solid. In the 1970s, gold stocks lagged and then took off at the very end- outperforming the bullion by a wide margin. If it happens again- then I’ll be fine in those.
We look at things differently Chuk. I don’t consider buying a condo as an “investment.” Far from it. It’s just a place to live – as I’ve said. It’s not going to build me any wealth. My other assets are what that is for. So as long as it’s still cheaper for me to rent than to own- there is no reason for me to own. I understand for people who have children and want to be in a home for many years in a preferred school district- it DOES make sense to buy.
But my money is better served somewhere else and I have maximum ability to move anywhere I like- in any neighborhood I like- to any city I like. It’s truly freeing and wonderful. Again- it’s not for everyone- but I don’t have to worry about a special assessment or fights with a neighbor or a broken down air conditioning unit.
“S&P100 is made up of all 100 year old companies”
Do you even KNOW how many there are chuk? Again- please- educate yourself. Some of the best companies in the world are right here in Illinois and they’ve been around, yes, 100 years. And they are KILLING it right now. Just great companies with great products.
“I love investing in companies that have been around 100 years and are still innovative and making tons of money. ”
That’s a pretty short list.”
This is so wrong Bob- you clearly have no idea.
“I don’t consider buying a condo as an “investment.””
Depends. It isn’t if you are living in it. But if you are buying it to rent out, or if you are buying distressed properties and rehabbing them and flipping them, then they are investments.
“I haven’t been as lucky investing in the gold stocks- but I’ve been dollar cost averaging those because their fundamentals are so solid.”
And this is why you are so naive about the stock market.
“Do you even KNOW how many there are chuk?”
Do you? Quick, what % of companies in the S&P 100 would you estimate are 100+ years old?
“Again- please- educate yourself.”
Again, I’m not the one that needs educating. You think that 100 years ago, everyone was going to college and now the system is somehow failing us because people aren’t going to college. Yet it was only 5% in 1940. You seem to think that all the companies in the S&P100 are 100 years old and again that is wrong.
“Some of the best companies in the world are right here in Illinois and they’ve been around, yes, 100 years. And they are KILLING it right now.”
Again, the exception does not make the rule.
“You seem to think that all the companies in the S&P100 are 100 years old and again that is wrong.”
There is no such thing as the S&P 100- only the S&P 500. I never said ALL of the S&P 500 is 100 year old companies. I said I like investing in 100 year old companies that are innovative and making tons of money.
I started thinking about the companies headquartered here in Illinois just off the top of my head and several of them have been around 100 years (or more) and are making tons of money. It’s really not that hard.
Plenty of companies had record quarters last quarter. Some of them are ompanies that have been around 100 years or more. It’s very, very impressive. They are KILLING it. It’s just great to be an owner. I love being associated with winners. And they’ll raise their dividends- which means more for me as well.
I always wonder what their founders would think if they could see their companies now- all these years later? They wouldn’t recognize them, of course. They’re all global now.
“There is no such thing as the S&P 100- only the S&P 500.”
Ha. Please tell me you didn’t just say that. And you say I need to get educated?
Here, I’ll give you a free one:
“The S&P 100, a subset of the S&P 500, includes 100 leading U.S. stocks with exchange-listed options. Constituents of the S&P 100 are selected for sector balance and represent about 57% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 and almost 45% of the market capitalization of the U.S. equity markets. The stocks in the S&P 100 tend to be the largest and most established companies in the S&P 500”
Chuk I never see it on the Yahoo finance page or on CNBC so it can’t exist!
Dividends are back in vogue, for sure. Today’s era in equities is reminiscent of the nifty-fifty era of the 1970s.
“Today’s era in equities is reminiscent of the nifty-fifty era of the 1970s.”
Yup, and I think we know how well that turned out…
http://economics-files.pomona.edu/GarySmith/nifty50/nifty50.html
AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, PCLN, BIDU anyone?
Okay- I see it. Thanks for citing to wikipedia. Well- then yes- just looking over a quick list of them it’s probably about 85% of those companies are 100 years old and most are killing it. Heavens. Altria Group is like 250 years old and still paying a 7% dividend.
There are some newbie tech companies (Amazon, Google) and some retailers (Home Depot, Costco) that aren’t 100 years old. A few of the other oldies are only about 70 to 80 years old (Cat and Disney). But most of them have been around FOREVER.
It’s amazing. Just good american companies churning out cash to owners year after year after year. And adapting to the economic environment!
But are definitely plenty of 100 year old companies in Illinois that are publicly traded that aren’t big enough to be on a list like this. I’m thinking ITW and the like.
People are dumb. They think GE is the only game in town. Or this list of 100 companies you cited to. Most of the gems are the mid-caps and smaller cap companies.
“Today’s era in equities is reminiscent of the nifty-fifty era of the 1970s.”
No. The “nifty-fifty” referred to a group of 50 companies that everyone HAD to own and by 1972 had an average P/E of about 50. When it crashed- some stocks took about 15 years just to get back to break even (Johnson & Johnson, I believe was one of them.) Stocks are cheap right now compared to the Nifty Fifty group.
“People are dumb. They think GE is the only game in town. Or this list of 100 companies you cited to. Most of the gems are the mid-caps and smaller cap companies.”
*sigh* another freebie:
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/ibm-joins-elite-group-100-year-companies/story?id=13851679
“And today Big Blue joins the exclusive club of companies to have survived 100 years, a rare feat it accomplished by constantly adapting through the tumult of recessions, technology shifts and CEO succession.”
“The numbers reveal just how rare it is. From the pool of more than 5,000 U.S. publicly traded companies, 486 are 100 years or older”
See the word “rare” in there? Twice?
I LOVE this conversation. You guys are SO bearish it makes me want to buy more stocks right now. It is an incredibly bullish sign. I feel like it is 1979 and we’re about to get the businessweek announcing the death of stocks. What a time to be an investor! It’s so fantastic.
Conversely- there are plenty of people on this blog who believe that now is the time to buy housing. Plenty of housing bulls. Heck, HD and G are attacked relentlessly because they’re housing bears.
I love it! So bullish for stocks.
That’s not “rare”. Not at all. 486 out of 5000? Sorry. Not rare AT ALL.
Shall we name them? Just in Illinois??? Please don’t make me.
It’s so much fun. I LOVE THIS. You are such negative nellies.
Why don’t you guys go out and buy the 486 that ARE 100 years old? They are fantastic companies. They’ve been through it all. Wars, assassinations, riots, recessions, depressions, women’s lib, the internet. And they’re STILL going strong.
Wow. Imagine it. It’s incredible.
“Stocks are cheap right now compared to the Nifty Fifty group.”
PT Barnum was right.
Let me get this straight.
You think no one will have jobs. Housing will crater. And these companies are going to be making lots of profits?
Any chance you see the flaw in your argument?
By the way Chuk- is 10% of the total “rare”?
I don’t think so. But what do I know. I get all my info from CNBC!
rare1 ? ?/r??r/ Show Spelled[rair]
adjective, rar·er, rar·est.
1. coming or occurring far apart in time; unusual; uncommon: a rare disease; His visits are rare occasions.
2. thinly distributed over an area; few and widely separated: Lighthouses are rare on that part of the coast.
3. having the component parts not closely compacted together; not dense: rare gases; lightheaded from the rare mountain air.
4. unusually great: a rare display of courage.
5. unusually excellent; admirable; fine: She showed rare tact in inviting them.
“You are such negative nellies.”
Pot, meet kettle.
“They are fantastic companies.”
You sure about that?
“You guys are SO bearish it makes me want to buy more stocks right now.”
Funny, that’s the same exact thing you said on the EXACT top of the market this year. To the day. Time to sell some calls.
And you seem to be confused on me being “bullish” or “bearish”. All I said was the stock market is a scam. And it has performed worse than housing since 2000.
“You think no one will have jobs. Housing will crater. And these companies are going to be making lots of profits?”
40% of their revenue now comes from outside the United States. Some estimate within 4 years about 70% of the S&P 500’s revenue will come from outside the United States.
Emerging markets have PLENTY of jobs. These companies will make TONS of profit.
Why do you think so many of them had record profits last quarter? Yes- they’ve been around 100 years and last quarter was a RECORD! Better than 2007. Better than 1999. Better than 1995. Better than EVER before.
Like I’ve been saying. Our companies are incredible. They’re very competitive and they have great products. The rest of the world aren’t fools. They’re buying our products because there really is no other choice.
It’s a great time to be an investor. The world is our oyster.
“By the way Chuk- is 10% of the total “rare”?”
90% are not 100 years old. But you were trying to make the exception (10%), the rule.
I bet I could find 10% of properties bought in 2004-2007 that are worth MORE than what people paid. So are you saying real estate was a great investment in 2004-2007?
“40% of their revenue now comes from outside the United States.”
Umm…. Have you taken a peek outside the United States lately?
I don’t time the market chuk. I’m not a day trader like you. I could care less if it’s the “top” this year. I could care less that it’s the “top” 3 years ago. I already said- this is a bear market. It will last for probably another 3 to 4 years (in a good case scenario.) But I could be wrong because the sentiment towards stocks is SO negative- it’s like that of 1979. But I think we’ll need another big wash out before it gets really negative. Probably another 20% to 30% downward correction before all of you REALLY hate stocks.
I’m not negative at all- about stocks or real estate or the American economy.
If you’re buying a house and you know you’re going to live there for 10 years or more- then there are tremendous deals out there (especially in the suburbs.) I think most condos are going to be money losers for a long, long time (unless they are big enough to raise a family in.) City townhouses will hold up because they are pseudo-houses for those who can’t afford the real deal in some neighborhoods. The 3-bedrooms townhouses will do much better than the 2-bedrooms (same with condos)- because you can have a couple of kids in them.
Anyone who thinks they can buy real estate and only live there for 3 years – is going to be in a world of hurt. The short term play in real estate is long gone.
Chuk- 85% of those in the list you referred to (the S&P 100) are 100 years old. Now you’ve switched it to 5000 publicly traded companies and said it was “rare” that any were 100 years old. But wait- it turns out 10% of 5000 companies are 100 years old (that is of all market cap sizes.)
10% is not “rare”.
I give up. Go and buy your real estate. I’m buying stocks. It’s so much fun! With my proceeds from that- I’ll buy some real estate when it’s cheaper than renting my current apartment.
I LOVE this conversation. You and Bob are my “indicators.”
“40% of their revenue now comes from outside the United States.”
Umm…. Have you taken a peek outside the United States lately?”
Ze- where are you when I need you? 🙂
“I don’t time the market chuk. I’m not a day trader like you.”
I’m not a day trader.
“Anyone who thinks they can buy real estate and only live there for 3 years – is going to be in a world of hurt. The short term play in real estate is long gone.”
Forget about pricing trends, transaction costs alone will kill you in only 3 years. Other than one 3 year span, people weren’t buying houses for 3 years and moving. Again, you pick one tiny window, and make gross generalizations. The short term play in real estate never existed for the last 100 years for most people. On the other hand, there are people making TONS of money now buying distressed properties and rehabbing them for a nice 100k+ profit. Hell, 1/2 of the properties that you showcase fit that bill.
I think you are confused on the difference between “living in a house” and “real estate investing”. They are two totally different things.
“Probably another 20% to 30% downward correction before all of you REALLY hate stocks.”
Pop quiz. How much does the market have to go UP for you to break even after a 20-30% move down?
“I LOVE this conversation. You and Bob are my “indicators.””
As are you. But so far only one of us has been “useful”…
“The friend driving the cab? THERE ARE NO JOBS CHUK!”
“I’m not negative at all- about stocks or real estate or the American economy.”
Could have fooled me…
sabrina your words are falling on deaf ears, people want things NOW NOW NOW!
nobody has the patience for boring old blue chip stocks anymore, which is awesome because that makes them cheaper for me!
“I think you are confused on the difference between “living in a house” and “real estate investing”. They are two totally different things.”
You haven’t read a single thing I said. I AGREE WITH YOU!
Duh!
The flipper/rehabbers are making a killing right now. Good for them. They know what they are doing and the market is good for them.
Everyone else buying condos (where, by definition, you will not live in for 10 years- for the most part) will get killed. Buy the SFH that you can grow into (as they used to think BEFORE the mania.) 1% appreciation means you have to live there for quite some time to make up even the nearly 8% transaction costs.
Yes- we agree.
Unfortunately- there is a huge swath of America and people in Chicago who just still don’t understand that buying a condo isn’t like renting one. And that real estate ISN’T an investment if you’re just buying a house to live in. If you’re going to be moving in a few years- just rent. Nothing wrong with renting when you’re 25. You’ll survive!
“nobody has the patience for boring old blue chip stocks anymore, which is awesome because that makes them cheaper for me!”
Me too Sonies! I love it. Yay for the patient people!
“Probably another 20% to 30% downward correction before all of you REALLY hate stocks.”
Pop quiz. How much does the market have to go UP for you to break even after a 20-30% move down?”
You DON’T GET IT! I will hold for 10 or 20 years! What do I care? I’m buying every single month. And I will buy AFTER the 20% correction and then reinvest my dividends. It just makes it even more attractive for me to buy. I’m waiting for the pull back because I love those kinds of opportunities.
“I will hold for 10 or 20 years! What do I care?”
What makes you think holding for 10 years means anything on the success or failure of your investment? What makes you think stocks will be higher in 2019? Ask people that bought in 1999 and sold in 2009. Then ask someone that bought in 1997 and sold in 2007. Then ask someone that bought in 2008 and sold in 2009. Timing is EVERYTHING.
Timing means nothing to me. I buy value stocks. I told you. We’re in year 11 of a bear market. I’m betting that at least 50% of this bear has already occurred. But it could be more (or less.) Every year that goes by- the odds increase in my favor.
I started buying in 2000. I like where I stand. Thank you very much.
I’ve recounted here how I have a 90 year old friend who lives off her dividends. She has owned stocks since 1972. Her “timing” has been irrelevant. I just talked to her recently and she wasn’t bothered by the stock market gyrations on iota.
41% of all returns on the S&P 500 since 1928 have been from dividends. I buy a lot (but not all) dividend paying stocks. In bear markets, the dividend portion rises (because stocks are beaten down and many companies end up paying out more- which is what we’re seeing again today.) In the 1970s, 71% of the return that decade came from dividends.
I am perfectly fine holding for another 10 or 20 years. I’m buying the best companies in the world who are KILLING it. Why would I want to sell?
“I started buying in 2000”
LOL. Say no more…
On a more positive note, some great pictures of actual and proposed skyscrapers in Chicago in this giant thread:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=159437
You’re so condescending Chuk. But you know all. I’d rather take advice from my 90 year old friend. She’s been investing for far longer than most of us.
You said timing is EVERYTHING. I timed it right, right? Come on. You can admit it. It’s okay.
I bought AFTER the dot-com bust (give or take a few months.) I didn’t buy pets.com. I didn’t buy Amazon.com in 1999. I didn’t buy any tech stocks pre-2000. I bought blue chips starting in 2000. It’s been good. Dollar cost averaging. Getting the dividends.
My timing was impecable! Yay for timing!
But what do I know.
I get all my info from CNBC.
By the way- for all of you out there simply reading this thread and shaking your heads- this “chatter” is VERY bullish for stocks. You read it here first! On a housing blog, no less.
” But you know all”
Nope. Just a lot more than you about the market. Who knows, maybe you even bought from me in 2000?
” this “chatter” is VERY bullish for stocks”
BTW the last time Sabrina said this the market dropped 20% in a month or two.
“I bought AFTER the dot-com bust (give or take a few months)”
You are up about about 1% (including today’s 1% move) over the last 11 years. in other words, someone that bought yesterday has the same return as your “buy and hold” from 2000. Good thing you rented for 11 years and were able to able to invest all that “extra” money.
odd thing is how many u of c and hahvad b school shirts i am suddenly seeing down here. Globally there is more opportunity than ever before. Globally the biggest expansion ever seen has still not taken place. For people in Russia, India, Brazil, Chile… Things have never been so good. Practically every day I see something down here that people need, if I were young, with any real motivation, i’d be rippin the cover off the ball, but i’d be out of the US or at a minimum – focused externally. The days of USA as ‘the’ global growth engine be ending.
Ze always said..art and collectibles. They will continue to outpace. Stocks… Boring, but an up move to new highs is coming, no idea when, could be a few years.
Dividend reinvestment makes no sense, very inneficient.
Chucks.. ‘I already know everything i need to know’ comment, sends shivers up my spine, as well it should his.
Of course i graduated with shit grades so that makes me dumb….
“Chucks.. ‘I already know everything i need to know’ comment, sends shivers up my spine, as well it should his.”
About the stock market, not life. I’ve already made my money in the market.
“You and Bob are my “indicators.””
Well I’ve always wanted to be a rogue trader so…:D
Remember what happened when this happened to BNP Paribas. It boggles my wind that these “world class” financial institutions have systems that can be gamed.
Enjoy the leg down if UBS tries to unwind the positions like BNP did in a matter of days. Then I might buy some land trusts.
I had assumed such. You tease the gods.
“I bought AFTER the dot-com bust (give or take a few months)”
Your mistake is assuming I bought the S&P. I did not. I bought individual stocks. I am KILLING it versus those who bought real estate. It really isn’t that hard. For heavens sake- just buy Apple.
“odd thing is how many u of c and hahvad b school shirts i am suddenly seeing down here. Globally there is more opportunity than ever before. Globally the biggest expansion ever seen has still not taken place. For people in Russia, India, Brazil, Chile… Things have never been so good. Practically every day I see something down here that people need, if I were young, with any real motivation, i’d be rippin the cover off the ball, but i’d be out of the US or at a minimum – focused externally. The days of USA as ‘the’ global growth engine be ending.”
Thank you Ze. I knew you would be backing up my position. It won’t be smooth sailing- that’s for sure- but the growth and opportunity is there. US companies are entering these markets and hitting it out of the park. I don’t know why people can’t see what is going on. But they read about all the doom and gloom and refuse to believe anything else.
Heck- people should go to Colombia and see what is happening there. It’s very exciting for the global economy. A lot of US businesses are expanding there.
Can’t help wondering how many of those “unemployed” Hahvahd Yahd Grahds are truly looking for work – and how many are “trust fund babies” livin’ the hilife on Grandpa’s estate on the Riviera and doing some “token” work for a politician or movie studio until they get bored and “connect” their way into a real job.
Stocks vs. Gold vs. Real Estate – wow, it’s really making my head spin, and so early in the morning! Sabrina, summer is morphing into fall…how ’bout we ladies doing our thing for the economu by juist buying clothes? The new fall fashions are awesome…
“Your mistake is assuming I bought the S&P. I did not. I bought individual stocks.”
No, I picked the Dow. You said blue chips. Dow isn’t representative of blue chips?
“I did not. I bought individual stocks. I am KILLING it versus those who bought real estate”
Of course you are…
“It really isn’t that hard. For heavens sake- just buy Apple.”
Classic.
“It really isn’t that hard. For heavens sake- just buy Apple.”
btw, you ever hear the phrase “the next Microsoft is not Microsoft”? Do you know what it means?
I do believe that college is becoming a worse investment all the time but I wonder how many of the unemployed grads have degrees in useless subjects like medieval folk literature. My daughter is a computer science major and the opportunities are endless. Google starts people around 6 figures. People need to start looking upon college in terms of what kind of job they can get afterwards rather than just a way to spend 4 years expanding their horizons. When I tell people this they think I’m horrible, which tells me just how serious the problem is.
“I bet I could find 10% of properties bought in 2004-2007 that are worth MORE than what people paid. So are you saying real estate was a great investment in 2004-2007?”
Ok, I’ll take the bet. What’s at stake? How much time will you need to gather all that data? Would you like to limit it to just Chicago?
“Would you like to limit it to just Chicago?”
Nope. And not just the US either. I don’t mean 10% of ALL real estate. I mean 10% of a cherry picked sample. Like Sabrina did.
“My grandmother went to SIU and she grew up on a farm outside of Champaign. She went in 1936. I guess she was part of the 5%! Yay for her.”
When it was a school dedicated to teaching teachers. The explosive growth came when it switching from normal school to general purpose “University”.
“Altria Group is like 250 years old ”
Um, no. THE Philip Morris hasn’t even celebrated the quarter-millennial of his birth, much less the US Company named after him.
Ugh. The last hundred entries are so incredibly boring & tedious – welcome to StockChatter or InvestChatter, same hostess. I guess when you are Sabrina you get to take the chat as far off course as you would like. Snore.
Skimmed them to be sure. BUT – the strength (real and perceived) of the stock market is certainly relevant to the housing market. I fully support the idea that a house is a home first and investment (long term!) second. But that doesn’t mean one shouldn’t be selecting & taking care of their home with the seriousness one would expect from a mutual fund manager selecting stocks you’re risking your retirement/well-being on.
“Ugh. The last hundred entries are so incredibly boring & tedious – welcome to StockChatter or InvestChatter, same hostess. I guess when you are Sabrina you get to take the chat as far off course as you would like. Snore.”
i would never let my fictitional kid pull what I did in college. Would be right next to Betty Boops kid at the Naval Academy. Let them take care of instillin a bit a structure.. So simple.
“I get all my info from CNBC.”
not a good idea, what a bunch of noise!
“how ’bout we ladies doing our thing for the economy by just buying clothes? The new fall fashions are awesome…”
Chitowngal, H&M has some really good knockoffs right now at great prices.
ah Sonies, how I too miss a simpler more health conscious America. An America that turned it’s early morning TV’s not to the hype of CNBC, but one that allowed you to watch Kiana’s Flex Appeal. Another thing ruined by lawyers.
And i kinda think H&M is real low quality shit. Only looked once or twice out of curiosity. Not impressed.
“And i kinda think H&M is real low quality shit. Only looked once or twice out of curiosity. Not impressed.”
The kids clothes generally rock. Lasts long enough for the kids to outgrow, which is all that matters.
“Lasts long enough for the kids to outgrow, which is all that matters.”
That’s about 5 months in my house.
Pssst, “West Bucktown” isn’t a real neighborhood. Stop making shit up Reators. I’m a commercial broker and you make us all look like morons.
My comment about this house was removed from the postings. Does this site only allow comments that have nothing to do with the house referenced?
I wanted to convey that this is a great block. And people scared of west of western need to get out more.
Beautiful home that I would love to own.
Under contract!
WOW, what a great thread. I just reread this one. It is interesting to see how wrong most contributors are on this site.
Everyone coming to cribchatter should read this thread, so that they can see the agenda of others.
Interesting to note chuk had 2 million in this thread, however has lost 25% in 6 months–according to a recent post.
“Interesting to note chuk had 2 million in this thread, however has lost 25% in 6 months–according to a recent post.”
No. My recent post referred only to my retirement account. I made money in non-retirement accounts as well. However, I spent a good chunk of it on my house.
“WOW, what a great thread. I just reread this one. It is interesting to see how wrong most contributors are on this site.”
You mean “end of the world – feel that deflation as you pump your gas” Bob?
Gz, you know as well as I do you can’t just dig a hole in the ground in texas reach oil. The oil in your fictional home in brazil is 5000 feet under the surface of the earth, and the surface is 14,000 feet below the ocean floor. They haven’t quite figured out how to drill that far and successfully extract oil, yet. Only then will you feel deflation at the pump.
“The oil in your fictional home in brazil”
Rio sounded so much nicer to say than Saskatchewan.
btw.. as for investing advice. Allied Irish Banks has 24,000 employees. If I buy a 1/24,000th stake in the company, does that mean I now own my own Irishman?
If I lived near some of the idiots on this post I may throw a bottle at them, it may be a bells bottle instead of modelo, in case you are wondering, if I’m some sort of minority gangbanger. I might even let my pit bull mull you if he weren’t such a sweetheart and incapable of attacking anyone. If you have lived in Chicago for an decent amount of time you will remember what it was like in bucktown/wicker before all the disgusting people move into that neighborhood, with their strollers and Range Rovers. Some of us have moved further west to avoid the people who have taken over what were pretty cool neighborhoods at one time. I am glad so many undesirables are afraid to go west of western.