Market Conditions: April Home Sales Plunge 22.2% to 8 Year Lows Due to COVID-19
With the state’s economy shut down due to COVID-19, it’s not a surprise that April home sales plunged in Chicago and around the state.
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales decrease 22.2 percent with 2,018 sales in April, compared to 2,595 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in April was $339,450 up 9.5 percent compared to April 2019 when it was $310,000.
This was the lowest number of sales since 2012.
Here are the sales statistics for April since 2007:
- 2007: 2419 sales
- 2008: 1886 sales
- 2009: 1407 sales
- 2010: 1984 sales
- 2011: 1466 sales
- 2012: 1816 sales
- 2013: 2392 sales
- 2014: 2256 sales
- 2015: 2435 sales
- 2016: 2706 sales
- 2017: 2647 sales
- 2018: 2700 sales
- 2019: 2595 sales
- 2020: 2018 sales
Here are the median prices:
- 2007: $289,800
- 2008: $300,000
- 2009: $218,000
- 2010: $225,000
- 2011: $169,000
- 2012: $182,000
- 2013: $223,500
- 2014: $250,000
- 2015: $271,325
- 2016: $286,000
- 2017: $297,500
- 2018: $307,500
- 2019: $310,000
- 2020: $339,450
“We’re beginning to see a fuller picture of COVID-19’s effect on the housing market,” said Maurice Hampton, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and owner of Centered International Realty. “While closed sales are down 22.2 percent, demand is still there—although constrained by inventory—as the median sales price ticked up and days on the market declined. While the process may have changed, the need to transact real estate hasn’t with 2,018 closed sales in the city of Chicago last month.”
The 30-year average mortgage rate fell to 3.31% down from 3.45% in March and 4.14% in April 2019.
Inventory plunged statewide, and in Chicago, as sellers took properties off the market and others that wanted to list, decided to wait due to the virus.
Statewide inventory fell 18.2% to 45,848 from 56,024 a year ago.
In Chicago, inventory fell 19.5% to 7,658 properties from 9,512 properties last year.
The number of days on the market before a sale in Chicago declined 7.7% to 36 days from 39 last year as inventory remained tight.
“The impact of the precipitous decline in employment is beginning to make its way into the housing market” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. “However, many analysts believe that while sales will decline, prices may remain sticky at least for the next several months. Consumer indices already reflect the heightened uncertainty about the labor market, and this will no doubt dampen both additions to the housing inventory as well as housing demand.”
Will April be the worst of the sales plunge from the COVID shutdown?
Or will it extend into the summer?
Illinois median home prices increase in April; sales and inventory slip [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, May 21, 2020]
Where are you getting 36 day market times from? I show 75/91 for condos/ SFHs.
The market has been improving. More listings are coming on the market and showings are way up.
A lot of companies, particularly in the tech space, are looking to move their employees to a work from home environment on a long term semi-permanent to permanent basis.
I wonder how we will see this play out in the Chicago housing market, particularly close to downtown.
“More listings are coming on the market and showings are way up.”
The overpriced sellers are chasing the market all the way down to the bottom. The buyers are catching falling knives who are purchasing depreciating assets. Remember 2010 buyers getting ‘deals’? Yeah, prices declined for another 2-3 years. Any slight uptick in prices during this pandemic is called a dead cat bounce.
Would be interesting to see the median price by quartile
Disagree a bit w/HD. Certain segments of the market will get crushed – sub $400k and the 2/2. The balance of the market will probably be dependent on WFH acceptance.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the MC inner-ring suburbs. You can make a case where the 1100sf 2/2 Market evaporates and these buyers look to towns like Lombard, La Grange, Berwyn. Especially if they continue to improve their original “downtowns”
A neighbor in my building listed their unit for around 12.5% under current market value. It was snapped up almost instantly. Smart sellers should be listing this way if they want the property to move quickly. Years of price declines await for most properties unfortunately.
Given all the variables in play, if I’m a seller Im not screwing around as buyers will have a very hard time deciding what/where to buy or even deciding to buy at all.
So this is how the bull market in the green zone will come to a halt. Would not have predicted a pandemic mess. But my guess is that the permanent “work from home” individuals will have a change of heart. Will shows like “Hometown” drive GenX’ers to the smaller towns that are still in short drive proximity to a major city?
Figured that our lake house value would sink quickly. My local realtor suggests otherwise. She is “crazy busy this month” and it is buyers from the cities coming out of the woodwork.
Normally I’d just chalk that up to the Memorial Day weekend. But she is suggesting that there might actually be more to the story. Wonder if there will be a shift toward affordable lakefront properties as a main home by more of these stay at home folks.
Will towns like Fontana, Williams Bay, Delavan, Twin Lakes, or Powers Lake thrive under such conditions? Time will tell but I can see the lure of these close in “occasional commuter” locations gaining some traction.
This is a definition of a perfect storm. We are were the stock market was in February prior to collapsing in March.
Overpriced properties, absurd property taxes, declining population, high unemployment and layoffs announcements on weekly basis. The only things that keep the prices steady are artificially low rates and low inventory. It will be a bloodbath starting this Fall.
There will be many new accidental landlords.
I don’t see accidental landlords coming to fruition. For a major reason that it’s renters who will be leaving first. There’s no reason for 20 somethings to be in the city if their are not bars and restaurant. Chicago’s been losing population for years but they have been very solid at getting fresh graduates to come to the city. That train has died. And many renters in their 20’s will just work from home at their parents house. No city social life then no reason to rent. Rents could easily be down 50% in the fall and have few takers. I think Lightfoot made a fairly significant mistake closing down the playpen – less it specifically but more what it represents as the other city draws for young people won’t be there. And that just destroys Chicago’s population train where you no longer have kids taking their first job here. Most leave eventually but a few stay.
Speaking of the playpen – why was she so adamant about keeping it closed? Simply enforce that boats stay apart and parties don’t mix. it’s a small area and would be so easy to monitor.
“It was snapped up almost instantly. ”
“Snapped up” is a pretty good linguistic indicator that whoever used the term works in the real estate industry. So keep talking your book thinking it will affect the dire outcome to come–it won’t.
“these buyers look to towns like Lombard, La Grange, Berwyn.”
Why? Because if you can work from home you can work from anywhere & there’s no better place to be than Lombard, La Grange or Berwyn?
There is no comparable substitute suburban experience outside of Columbus, Indianapolis or Cincinnati that offers the same thing but a fraction of the cost here?
If the city cores die in deep blue places like Chicago, NYC, Boston you can be damn sure their suburbs will go along with it. There are just far better alternatives out there for the money.
You can’t duplicate a city center but you can damn sure duplicate a city’s suburb elsewhere.
“So keep talking your book thinking it will affect the dire outcome to come–it won’t.”
What dire outcome?
If you live within the city limits of Chicago you know that over this lovely weekend thousands of Chicagoans flocked to the parks, ordered their Starbucks on the app and picked it up, and ordered their pizza via delivery while also barbecuing on their home grills.
The thousands of people I saw, safely, socially distancing in various parks around the city, hanging out on their beach towels and folding chairs, didn’t look desperate to move to the suburbs to me.
It’s not going to happen. And why would anyone WANT it to?
Cities are efficient and productive. Artists love them as do all creatives. There has always been energy in cities. Always. Since ancient Roman times.
Have various plagues and sicknesses forced humans to flee the cities, temporarily? Sure. But the Spanish flu of 1918 no more crushed the city than the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 will.
“Speaking of the playpen – why was she so adamant about keeping it closed? Simply enforce that boats stay apart and parties don’t mix. it’s a small area and would be so easy to monitor.”
Who is going to “enforce” that the boats stay apart every day? And why would you want to? That takes manpower and puts the coast guard and Chicago marine unit at risk as we’ve seen with supermarket employees who have been threatened by people who won’t simply wear a mask.
What will they do with the Riverwalk? How do you reopen those restaurants and allow people to congregate along the river? I don’t think you do.
“That train has died. And many renters in their 20’s will just work from home at their parents house.”
Yes, my dream as a 22 or 23 year old was to move back home and just work from my teenage bedroom.
What a life!
“Most leave eventually but a few stay.”
They do? Where do they go?
I know one Millennial who moved to Florida and one to Texas. All the others have been in Chicago well over a decade. They bought places. They have young families.
“Will shows like “Hometown” drive GenX’ers to the smaller towns that are still in short drive proximity to a major city?”
Hometown seems like such a steal, doesn’t it jp3chicago? If I was looking to buy a 2/1 1200 square foot craftsman in California for $1.4 million, it would certainly make me think about looking at Laurel (population 16,000) for just $200,000 for the same thing (with all new construction.) Especially if you can work from home, right?
But Chicago has plenty of cheaper homes like Laurel. You don’t have to go to the small town. Just go to the South Shore. There are flippers really working it down there. I hope to do some updates on what is going on in June, when the city finally loosens up the lockdown.
And Dennis Rodkin at Crain’s just did another update on Bronzeville sales and how everything priced at $500,000 is selling quickly.
“It will be interesting to see what happens to the MC inner-ring suburbs. You can make a case where the 1100sf 2/2 Market evaporates and these buyers look to towns like Lombard, La Grange, Berwyn.”
La Grange? Got $500,000+?
Might as well live in Bronzeville, Hyde Park, Woodlawn, South Shore, Beverly, Morgan Park etc. etc.
“The buyers are catching falling knives who are purchasing depreciating assets.”
Finally! Someone is mentioning “falling knives” and, of course, it is HD who was the biggest commenter of “falling knives” (along with Bob, who is back) in 2009-2012 time period too.
No price could go low enough in the housing bust. It was always going to go lower (but, interestingly, never did.)
Back then, no one was going to buy a 2/2 for $400,000 ever again. No one would stay in the city. Millennials and GenXers were all going to move to the suburbs.
Ba ha ha.
But it NEVER happened.
People want to live their lives. They may live somewhere for 10 years. They want to paint the walls and build a deck out back. Home buying is emotional. Not many are thinking about a “falling knife.” Nor were they in 2010 either.
“A lot of companies, particularly in the tech space, are looking to move their employees to a work from home environment on a long term semi-permanent to permanent basis.”
They are allowing them the option to work from home. They’re not making them do it. Most will do what McDonald’s has done since they opened their new HQs. You can work from home for 2 or 3 days a week, and go into the office the other two or three days. You don’t have a permanent desk. You have a locker where you can store what you need and then you can use a desk in your assigned area when you go in.
In the nice weather, at McDonald’s you can work from its 5 or 6 outdoor terraces or big open work spaces.
It’s quite lovely and the employees are happy. They have the best of both worlds in that they don’t have to commute every day yet still interact with their work colleagues. Productivity is way up since they moved downtown.
But some companies may not want as much office space anymore. Instead of taking 3 floors in the building, maybe they will take only 1 or 2. This will definitely impact the downtown office market including places like the Old Post Office.
There’s a reason that Fulton Market’s alderman has suddenly decided to allow residential construction in that neighborhood. Commercial could go cold for the next few years.
“Where are you getting 36 day market times from? I show 75/91 for condos/ SFHs.”
Gary: it’s from the IAR monthly sales data for Chicago. They call it “days on market until sale.”
Wow! I’ve never noticed that before. Never looked at that report. Something is definitely wrong. That wouldn’t be the first time. I’ll check into it.
They haven’t always published the Chicago specific report. That’s a new(er) thing. Or, at least, I only just discovered that they were putting out the Chicago data separately now. Lol.
“La Grange? Got $500,000+?“
156 N Brainard Ave, La Grange, IL 60525
80 N Brainard Ave, La Grange, IL 60525
146 Dover Ave, La Grange, IL 60525
All under $500k
“Why? Because if you can work from home you can work from anywhere & there’s no better place to be than Lombard, La Grange or Berwyn?
There is no comparable substitute suburban experience outside of Columbus, Indianapolis or Cincinnati that offers the same thing but a fraction of the cost here?”
Generally, Younger millennials and Z are still tied to their parents apron strings. Venturing away from the nest is scary
“If the city cores die in deep blue places like Chicago, NYC, Boston you can be damn sure their suburbs will go along with it. There are just far better alternatives out there for the money. “
Cleveland and Detroit’s suburbs have survived
“People want to live their lives. They may live somewhere for 10 years. They want to paint the walls and build a deck out back. Home buying is emotional. Not many are thinking about a “falling knife.” Nor were they in 2010 either.“
This is how you get people buying $750k crapshacks in LS
Idiots buying and idiots cheering them on.
It’s never a problem, till it’s a problem
What’s left of Chicago if all the young high earning DINKS leave? We’ve seen this before in the 1970’s and it lasted through the 90’s crack wars. It wasn’t pretty.
“What’s left of Chicago if all the young high earning DINKS leave? We’ve seen this before in the 1970’s and it lasted through the 90’s crack wars. It wasn’t pretty.”
The “leaving” of Chicago took decades. It started in the 1960s due to the schools being terrible. And there was no such thing as “DINK.” They all got married at 23 and had kids by 27.
Again, if you truly think everyone is going to “leave” Chicago and every other major city, then they have to go somewhere because it’s millions of people. And it will take decades to play out.
“Cleveland and Detroit’s suburbs have survived”
Survived is a good word. The suburbs aren’t going anywhere. At the end of the day, the freedom to get in your own car, and travel a significant distance (compared to walking) in a clean and conditioned environment, on a smooth road, is literally the standard every civilization has tried to achieve. Deep blue liberals want you to use public transportation and breathe in that toxic covid-19 filled air. The subways in new york were the conduit for coronavirus as it spread throughout queens. Scientists have mapped it out.
“This is how you get people buying $750k crapshacks in LS”
How’s it any different than buying them in St Charles or Elgin?
Supply and demand JohnnyU.
Oh gosh, it looks like this recession is going to be a barrel of fun with all the bears on this site. But we don’t have a housing bubble like 2008-2009 to wipe away.
“Again, if you truly think everyone is going to “leave” Chicago and every other major city, then they have to go somewhere because it’s millions of people. And it will take decades to play out.”
Not everyone will leave, just the ones that can afford to leave. Look at what happened in New York. It’s not clear how many will return or replace them. Maybe a lot, maybe a little.
If they’re coming from downtown Chicago from a luxury apartment with a rock climbing wall and spa in the building, they have standards JohnnyU.
Get with the program about what buyers want right now.
How’s it any different than buying them in St Charles or Elgin?
Supply and demand JohnnyU.
I’d take 928 S 5th St, St Charles, IL 60174 Over that POS LS crapshack. Though my desire to live in LS or StC is zero, In StC, I’d at least be getting a nice house
I bet you bought a lot of pets.com stock back in the day
“Look at what happened in New York.”
What? What happened?
Have a million rich people fled NY to the Hamptons? Montana? Boca? Where are those millions of people going HD?
This is silly. Plenty of people left Manhattan after 9/11. Remember that trauma? It was the real deal for cities, especially those like Chicago with skyscrapers. Everyone argued that no one would ever live in the John Hancock again and values would plunge.
LMFAO.
It NEVER happened.
But, yes, some people did feel more comfortable moving. They were quickly replaced and the cities thrived for the next 2 decades.
I do think the buying patterns will be influenced by what properties have outdoor space. Some may rethink that vintage apartment with no balcony or that small rooftop deck and want an actual backyard with grass. That just means that some townhouses and lots of single family homes will be in demand.
Large parts of Chicago aren’t that dense. Galewood or the Jackson Park Highlands are no different in density than Oak Park or Flossmoor. So someone in a high rise can “flee” to wide open space by staying in the city.
Oh, and if you look at the zip codes where the COVID cases are, it’s interesting because they aren’t heavily concentrated in the dense, high rise areas.
“Oh gosh, it looks like this recession is going to be a barrel of fun with all the bears on this site.”
The recession hasn’t even started yet – need two quarters of contracting GDP. The *depression* is just beginning.
“Oh, and if you look at the zip codes where the COVID cases are, it’s interesting because they aren’t heavily concentrated in the dense, high rise areas.”
Cases are concentrated in two areas: Nursing homes, and, lower class multi-generational households that refused to practice social distancing.
“What? What happened? ”
https://www.businessinsider.com/where-wealthy-nyc-residents-went-during-coronavirus-outbreak-nyt-report-2020-5
Wealthy New Yorkers fled the city when the coronavirus outbreak started. New data shows where they went — and which neighborhoods emptied out the most.
*New data analyzed by Kevin Quealy of The New York Times shows that New Yorkers from wealthy neighborhoods, such as the Upper East Side, fled the city at a higher rate than those from poorer neighborhoods.
*The data, from a geospatial analysis company, tracked the cellphone movements of New York City residents throughout the pandemic.
*It proves what many assumed: Wealthy people fled New York City en masse during the pandemic and headed towards more suburban areas, like the Hamptons and upstate New York.
Frustrated and struggling, New Yorkers contemplate abandoning the city they love
https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Frustrated-and-struggling-New-Yorkers-15294345.php
“* * * Welcome to the Great Reassessment.
New York City is a shadow of its pre-pandemic normal. Like Shell, many residents are out of work, out of money, out of patience and out of sorts. Reassessments are happening throughout the country, but nowhere else are they as sharply focused as here, in the nation’s most populated, most dense, most diverse metropolis – where more than 21,000 have died.
Even with all the chaos, filth and struggle, nostalgics have long mourned every change in what they called the “vanishing” city. But calls to the city’s mental health hotlines have surged. Whether they have left, or whether they have no option to leave, New Yorkers are having to ask themselves whether the city they love is really still livable.
“The ‘rona sat every New Yorker down and legit asked that question everyone knows from tired job interviews: Where do you see yourself in five years?” said Sandy José Nuñez, 31, a bartender hoping to pivot toward opening a jujitsu gym. “You have plenty of time now to step up to a solid answer. * * *”
Sure HD. They’re “contemplating it.”
LMFAO.
Yeah- many “contemplated” it in 2001 as well. Some DID move out of the city center or out of high rises. Most did not. And for those that left, newbies moved in.
NYC has always been “hard.” If your job goes away, yeah, you’re going to reassess. Interestingly, where are these same articles for San Francisco? Restaurants shut there too. Just as “hard” to live there now. But I haven’t seen any. Is it because the tech jobs are so much more dominant, and those, mostly, haven’t gone away?
It’s interesting to see the differences in the cities.
Chicago has a great park system. I wonder how much that is playing a factor in Chicagoans deciding, yes, they will stay in the city?
Who gives a shit about NYC here?
HD- we’re talking Chicago.
The Gold Coast high rises ARE nursing homes. Lol. The average age is probably about 65 in most of those buildings. Yet, the number of COVID cases, not to mention deaths, are low there.
Why?
Are they following the social distancing rules? It’s not that hard to simply stay inside your apartment and only leave for food every 10 days. They aren’t leaving for outside jobs like you find with younger people who go to work at that supermarket and then bring it home to their families. Less chance for exposure in the Gold Coast, Streeterville, River North?
A lot of the Gold Coast retirees aren’t that wealthy. They live in 1-bedrooms and sometimes even studios in many of those buildings. Have lived there for 20 or 30 years.
“The recession hasn’t even started yet – need two quarters of contracting GDP. The *depression* is just beginning.”
We’re IN the recession, HD. Any economist will tell you that. Sure, “officially” it won’t be declared until there are 2 quarters of declining GDP.
The consumer is NOT acting like it’s a depression. Not yet. All that could change 6 months from now. But I just saw a new restaurant preparing to open in Lincoln Park over the weekend with a big sign saying “hiring here.” The American economy is dynamic. This was a government induced shutdown. Once that shutdown is over, it should spring back pretty quickly. I’m not saying there won’t be job losses and pain. Not at all.
But the bears are WAY too bearish, as usual.
Just look at the new home sales for April.
During a nationwide shutdown.
Amazing.
By the way, what is little discussed is that after the dot-com bust thousands of people literally DID leave San Francisco and Silicon Valley. There were so many job losses, that all the 20-somethings that were living in group houses just up and left for other cities.
The amount of traffic on the 101 and 280 dropped by like half. There were incentives to get people into apartments (and there were actually apartments available!). It still didn’t cause a complete “crash” of the Bay Area housing market. And that was thousands leaving.
“You can’t duplicate a city center but you can damn sure duplicate a city’s suburb elsewhere.”
Have a couple of times thought about ‘burbs, and have discussed the thought with many neighbors over the years–for anyone not from suburban Chicago (always different if your extended family and childhood friends are all local), it’s just a terrible value proposition–the only thing you get for ~2x the $$ compared to the burbs of other MW cities is the ability to use Metra instead of driving–and you only want to do that bc driving takes longer and costs more here, which wouldn’t be true in (say) Indy even if Indy had a Metra-equivalent.
“All under $500k”
Yeah, bc those are all turds on one level or another:
156 only has one full bath
80 ruined the kitchen by shoving in the half bath and only has one upstairs bath
146–c’mon, that’s a retro south shore kitchen, and it doesn’t have ac; that place needs a *ton* of work, which, were it already done, would make it a $500k+ house. Better than a Logan bungalow needing the same amount of work for ~$200k more? Possible.
“Idiots buying and idiots cheering them on” This is the unofficial mission statement of the NAR
“80 ruined the kitchen by shoving in the half bath and only has one upstairs bath”
There’s a full bath in the basement. The Horror of having to shower on a different floor than your bedroom. I guess I’m a survivor for having to do endure that as a kid
“156 only has one full bath”
Correct and is an issue
“146–c’mon, that’s a retro south shore kitchen, and it doesn’t have ac; that place needs a *ton* of work, which, were it already done, would make it a $500k+ house. Better than a Logan bungalow needing the same amount of work for ~$200k more? Possible.”
At $375k, you’ve got a fair amount of room to do the kitchen remodel and add space-pac or Mini-splits.
“NYC has always been “hard.” If your job goes away, yeah, you’re going to reassess. Interestingly, where are these same articles for San Francisco? ”
Just Google “leaving San Francisco” Tons of articles. With all the tech firms supporting WFH it’s only a matter of time before people start bolting the high cost of living. It’s not just about the virus. So much has been written about this.
I loved this interview about a week or so ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTg5cw1YeAs&fbclid=IwAR3vvKB3cvKgsAN1MK9CR03-7Z_xs_Q7TL9EB_BUg5ee2xPdvaBA8_Uu2pQ
“There’s a full bath in the basement.”
The largely unfinished basement.
The first floor would be *really* nice if they hadn’t shoved the half bath in where it can’t fit and doesn’t belong. The 2d floor would be really nice if they’d given up some closet space for a (admittedly smallish) master bath. It’s close to being *really* nice, but that stuff and the mustard exterior, are kinda oof. Best of the 3, by far, tho.
Gary, he talks about how it will be “boom/bust” like after the dot-com boom but then says that it won’t be the same amount of people leaving.
Lol.
And he’s talking about Silicon Valley, not San Francisco. The whole point is that you’re fleeing the virus. He’s not mentioning the virus at all. This is the old “high costs” discussion. That’s not why they are leaving NYC even though the costs are high there too. That’s not why they’d leave Chicago.
It’s all about the virus.
If you want to talk about the outrageous costs in both of those cities and why they’re idiots for living there with those costs, that’s a different argument.
He talks about the “collapse” of real estate in San Francisco. But he’s assuming that ALL the Twitter workers will choose to work from home. Twitter isn’t MAKING them work from home. They have said you “can.” How many want to spend their whole lives working out of their home office? Not many. So they will still have the office. Nothing is going to collapse. And Twitter workers will still want to be in San Francisco. If they own a home there, they’re not going to move.
It’s only those who are apartment dwellers. Lol. If you’re working from home forever, then, sure, you can move to Dallas.
You literally will need 200,000 to 300,000 workers to leave Silicon Valley in order for those apartment rents to decline. Or maybe more. Are they going to? In 2000, they left because they had no jobs and there was no work to get so you HAD to leave. No reason to leave right now. And we know from human nature, many are unlikely to leave if not forced out.
So, no, I’m still waiting for the articles talking about how everyone in San Francisco needs outdoor space and needs to leave San Francisco and buy single family homes in the East Bay because of the coronavirus.
Haven’t seen those. But the number of deaths in San Francisco has been well under New Orleans, NYC and even here, in Chicago.
Have various plagues and sicknesses forced humans to flee the cities, temporarily? Sure. But the Spanish flu of 1918 no more crushed the city than the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 will.
Back then the people stayed mostly for the income from their jobs. That is the real anchor to living in a metropolitan area for many of the residents. As that need to be anchored to their job decreases that too may have an impact.
But in the end working totally remotely is not a good way to advance your career. Most promotions are emotional decisions based on human reactions to good work or overachieving employees. While it is possible to put a value on work from home employees it will always be harder. And many a conversation around the water cooler has positively impacted someones future relationships and career advancement. That is much harder to do online.
Lake property was busy this weekend. No open houses to view those properties but clearly desire to buy one. One local realtor suggested that they had calls that there are several buyers eagerly expecting some great values at the end of the summer. People will see the impact on their jobs and businesses and may need to sell at that point.
This weekend the lack of any spring sports, graduation parties, weddings, or other group events meant way more people out on the lakes. Suppose that the hot weather did not hurt either. Heard that Lake Geneva was packed.
“Heard that Lake Geneva was packed.”
Yes. Since it reopened. The Indiana Dunes National Park had lines for miles, apparently.
“Have various plagues and sicknesses forced humans to flee the cities, temporarily? Sure.”
Temporary? Our overweight governor says that phase 5 will only come about with a vaccine or herd immunity. Keep in mind there’s never been a vaccine or herd immunity for any coronavirus, ever, and certainly not for more recent bad bugs like SARS or Ebola. So the prospect of no sporting events, bars are closed, limited capacity restaurants, masks everywhere indoors, makes urban living very unattractive. At least urban living here, in our city, that our governor is purposely destroying.
Will you still be wearing a mask two years from now in blue states if the red states are all completely open and mask free? Will the Cubs play their season entirely in FL this year and next year? Maybe forever? Until JB decides, using science and data, after dozens of extensions of his 30 day emergency power, that it’s OK for us to finally venture in crowds? If I were 23 years old and choosing between a red state and a blue state, I know where I’d be starting my career.
““Until we have a vaccine or an effective treatment or enough widespread immunity that new cases fail to materialize, the option of returning to normalcy doesn’t exist,” Pritzker said at a briefing.”
Our gov. has shut everything down for families with kids: Playgrounds, day cares, summer camps for school aged children, how is anyone with a school aged child supposed to work this summer when nearly every park district has closed their summer camps? It’s nearly impossible to get a backyard swimming pool, or swing set for your kids, or even a bike. I was at target today and there were zero bikes, zero, none at all available. They had no video game systems or controllers either. Bathrooms at all outdoor facilities are to remain closed until phase 5. How can you go anywhere if all bathrooms are closed? How long do you think people in Chicago, or IL generally (most of state lives in Chicago area anyways) will tolerate living like this when every surrounding state is open? Indiana is going to have fireworks on the 4th of July. Yet my town closed its pool for the season without even opening, parks still have tape around them, and bathrooms are all closed at the forest preserves. Schools may not even open in the Fall and will again be ‘remove learning’! How are people supposed to work if their children can’t even go to school so parents can supervise ‘remote learning?’ I’m just saying, suddenly Chicago looks like a really unattractive place to live, when our elected official says ‘we’re never going back to normal.”
“If I were 23 years old and choosing between a red state and a blue state, I know where I’d be starting my career.”
Yeah, you made that clear for *years* before covid.
“Will you still be wearing a mask two years from now in blue states if the red states are all completely open and mask free? Will the Cubs play their season entirely in FL this year and next year? Maybe forever? Until JB decides, using science and data, after dozens of extensions of his 30 day emergency power, that it’s OK for us to finally venture in crowds? If I were 23 years old and choosing between a red state and a blue state, I know where I’d be starting my career.”
The mask? Sure, if it’s still advisable to wear one to reduce the spread. I realize that South Korea is homogeneous, has different cultural norms that the U.S., etc., but it’s very populous, and has fewer than 300 deaths. Among other reasons, those folks are hardcore about masks. Wearing masks may just be something that we need to get used to here.
As far as being 23 and choosing red vs blue? If you have the money and/or professional opportunities, it is incontrovertible that blue states are generally more desirable, and the blue areas of red states are generally more desirable. Would I like to have a new 5,000 sq ft house, with lavish finishes, huge in ground pool, etc., for a lot less than my dumpy 1960s 1,450 sq ft place with a $500 pool? Sure. But I also like having great public schools and breweries/decent independent restaurants/nice grocery stores within walking/bike distance, and in general being a state and/or city where people from elsewhere make a point of travelling to/vacationing in. Are there really any solidly (i.e., both fiscally and culturally) red cities and/or states to which people with money from, say, Tokyo or Berlin or London or Madrid or Paris or whatever travel for pleasure?
“Are there really any solidly … red cities”
First, what do you mean by “city”? What counts?
“(i.e., both fiscally and culturally)”
Second, you basically mean some combo of “anti-tax” (both federal and local) and “anti-abortion” and “pro-gun” and possibly a soupcon of “racist/xenophobic”, yes?
“people with money from, say, Tokyo or Berlin or London or Madrid or Paris or whatever travel for pleasure”
Third, you of course mean “and stay for a few days, and not *just* to ski”.
So, what’s the list of bona fide “red” cities? Fort Worth, for sure. Jacksonville, San Antonio, Indy, OKC, likely. But are we drilling down to places considerably smaller than that? “2d 100” sized places? Smaller? Do they only “count” then if they are clearly not a suburb of a larger city?
” Are there really any solidly (i.e., both fiscally and culturally) red cities and/or states to which people with money from, say, Tokyo or Berlin or London or Madrid or Paris or whatever travel for pleasure?”
Like Detroit, Baltimore? As if the only thing that matters to you is the tourist population and what they think?
“As far as being 23 and choosing red vs blue? If you have the money and/or professional opportunities, it is incontrovertible that blue states are generally more desirable, and the blue areas of red states are generally more desirable. ”
This is a fallacy because outside of the urban core of cities, the landscape often gets really red, really quickly, even in California. Heck, there are even (middle class) areas within the city limits of Chicago that are fairly red, on the far NW and SW sides. The hardest core blue areas within the city limits tend to have the largest number of poor people.
“there are even (middle class) areas within the city limits of Chicago that are fairly red, on the far NW and SW sides.”
You mean those bloodsucking leeches with city and county jobs?
“the landscape often gets really red, really quickly”
Of course, acres don’t vote (yet), just people.
“You mean those bloodsucking leeches with city and county jobs?”
Those are the Democrats. The Republicans are everyone else. Why would unionized county and city workers vote against their self interests?
“Why would unionized county and city workers vote against their self interests?”
hahahaha.
They get to symbolically vote R for their Aldercritter, with zero risk, and pull R on everything else.
They get to have it both ways. Rs in Springfield aren’t against public pensions, either.
Illinois–the only state to meet all 5 CDC guidelines for moving to Phase 3:
https://americanindependent.com/states-coronavirus-criteria-reopen-donald-trump-illinois-pandemic-covid-19/
tfo: I guess a “city” to me is more than just population size. I live in a “city” of a bit over 100k people. It’s the 12th largest “city” in the state, but feels more like a city than almost all of the more populous cities in the state (high density, rage-inducing traffic, a distinct downtown that’s packed with offices, bars, stores, restaurants, etc., has more employment in-commuters than out-commuters, has venues that attract relatively well known bands/musicians, etc., is perceived by residents in other cities of the state as being a city and not a burb). And by red, while yes, fiscal policies are a factor, I think the social aspects are the biggest factor (as far as setting fiscal policy goes, that’s more a state and fed thing, and voters can keep their low-taxation preferences a secret more easily than the other stuff). My little city is known for being almost comically liberal, but I know there are lots of folks here who are perfectly content with the low property taxes and state constitution that makes it nearly impossible to increase taxes (and, while they of course disapprove of Trump, aren’t too noisy about it).
HD: Affluent tourist opinion is certainly not the only thing that matters. But can it not be informative, when considering the desirability of a place?
Illinois–the only state to meet all 5 CDC guidelines for moving to Phase 3
Kudos to JB.
New York and New Jersey also meet the CDC guidelines as of this afternoon.
https://projects.propublica.org/reopening-america/
New York and New Jersey also meet the CDC guidelines as of this afternoon.
NJ as 4 of 5
“Kudos to JB.”
JB is an idiot. His ‘science and data’ is all bunk and apparently everyone but you knows it.
Madeline:
https://chicago.suntimes.com/essential-coronavirus-news/2020/5/14/21258470/cook-county-coronavirus-cases-most-queens-new-york
Cook County has more cases than the former epicenter Queens New York. JB ineptitude and negligence allowed Cook County to have more cases than any other county in the county and your response is “Kudos to JB”? YOu reward failure and think that’s a good job? We have an incredible number of nursing home deaths and minority communities were hammered by JB’s and Lori’s ineptitude and you say “Kudos?” Do you really believe this? or are you just trolling? Because its very clear to any nonpartisan observer that the place that has the most cases and the 2nd most number of deaths screwed up BIG TIME, but you, no, because you like the slob, you say Kudos. Unbelievable. How many more people have to die before you say, Hey, Maybe JB did a bad job actually, compared to, you know, the REST OF THE COUNTRY. How many cases?
only in Madeline’s world does having the most number of coronavirus cases, and 5,000 deaths, mean JB is doing a good job. Kudos to JB. What a great job, JB is #1!
Ask the 5,000 families (including my own that had a 82 yo distant relative, by marriage) die. Elderly. (go ahead SB, call me a liar, i know you will too). I can’t even go to the funeral because there isn’t one. Because JB spent too much time whining about the orange bad man on MSNCB instead of actually governing the state, now we’re #1 in cases! Kudos to JB.
Is this where I accuse HD of suffering from “Pritzker Derangement Syndrome”?
Or should I mis-characterize his argument as “Fat Man Bad”?
“Cook County has more cases than the former epicenter Queens New York”
Cook county has almost 3 million more people than Queens
“Because JB spent too much time whining about the orange bad man on MSNCB instead of actually governing the state, now we’re #1 in cases! Kudos to JB.”
Illinois is the only state that has actually met the White House Task Force’s recommendations for reopening.
I’d say that’s doing your job.
Our hospitals never got overwhelmed and we never needed all the beds at McCormick Place. That’s also a success. The whole key with the lockdown was to help the hospitals and prevent them from getting overwhelmed so people weren’t dying out on the street.
It was a success. It was a success in every state. Thank goodness.
Chicago had the first “known” case of COVID. Our international airport and business community was going to put us at ground zero no matter what we did. Same for NY, SF and LA.
Can Chicago, and the suburbs, where there are more cases, actually, prevent a big second wave? That’s the question no one can answer. Let’s hope so. But once the hotels re-open and people are taking mass transit again, it’s going to be hard. But if Beijing can do it, we can.
“JB ineptitude and negligence allowed Cook County to have more cases than any other county in the county”
Sorry HD. O’Hare Airport, manufacturing/distribution facilities everywhere, Metra and the El are what “allowed” it.
“JB is an idiot. His ‘science and data’ is all bunk and apparently everyone but you knows it.”
You know you’ve lost the argument when all you do is call someone an idiot. Got anything else HD?
As I said, Illinois is the only state that has met the reopening requirements set out by the scientists.
“New York and New Jersey also meet the CDC guidelines as of this afternoon.”
Awesome. More states that have bent the curve. I know a doctor in NJ. He has been working solely on the covid patients for weeks. About 2 weeks ago they finally saw more “regular” emergency room admits than Covids. But you have to stay the course. If you reopen too soon, all your hard work is wasted.
Kudos for NY and NJ for also staying the course. That’s good governing.
“So, what’s the list of bona fide “red” cities? Fort Worth, for sure. Jacksonville, San Antonio, Indy, OKC, likely. But are we drilling down to places considerably smaller than that? “2d 100” sized places? Smaller? Do they only “count” then if they are clearly not a suburb of a larger city?”
San Antonio is red? I never got that vibe from them. They had Julien Castro as mayor and current mayor is an independent.
Salt Lake City usually votes red, doesn’t it? Can’t think of that many others. Nearly all the major cities voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“Cook County has more cases than the former epicenter Queens New York”
hd aka jan2, a trolling poster who recently declared he or she planned to stop posting & just lurk for a while has instead continued posting BS, imaginary facts & full blown nonsense.
Queens population in 2019 per Census Bureau estimate is 43.8% the size of Cook County’s. Or to make it easy for a simpleton, if Cook County has 2.3 times as many cases as Queens their cases relative to population woud be equivilent.
Please stop whining so much hd/jan2 (Even if Target’s out of stock I’m guessing Pk Ridge has a bike store or try Kozy’s (inventory’s posted online & they have try out area where you/your kids can ride inside the store on N Milwaukee Ave). Waddan f’n whiner
“allowed Cook County to have more cases than any other county in the county”
Should he have taken the Trump approach, and discouraged testing?
“So the media likes to say we have the most cases, but we do, by far, the most testing. If we did very little testing, we wouldn’t have the most cases. So, in a way, by doing all of this testing, we make ourselves look bad.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-says-too-much-coronavirus-testing-makes-us-look-bad-2020-5
“@Sabrina, don’t you think it’s a bit coincidental that 3 out of 8 are leaving at the SAME TIME? Sounds like a SPECIAL ASSESSMENT is coming down the pipe.”
That’s easy to ascertain. Must be disclosed. Seller pays the special anyway. So no real advantage to “rush” to market with it.
Easier explanation is that most people bought a number of years ago and it’s the natural time to sell.
“But it NEVER happened.”
Rates dropped quite a bit from their 2007 highs and stayed near record lows for almost a decade.
This time around they don’t have much to fall as the floor is zero. 30 year fixed mortgages can now be had for as low as 2.75%, 15 years for 2.375%. Not going much lower this time around.
I see my stalker is back again. he visits the site every day just to read and reread my posts.
“As I said, Illinois is the only state that has met the reopening requirements set out by the scientists.”
Great! Except JB bungled his way there and now we have over 5,000 deaths. Per capita we are in the top 10 deaths and we’re the coronavirus epicenter now! Don’t argue with me, argue with the suntimes, I’m not the one who printed the assertion!
At this rate we’ll be number one soon enough! Although it will be hard to beat the incompetence of that guy in NY, sending infected nursing home patients back to nursing homes.
JB kept us safe! Except for the 5,000 people that died, and those hundreds of thousands of case, just ignore the incompetence, they delay, the destroying of the economy, the palpable anger coming from every other part of the state outside Cook COunty, becuase JB is doing a great job (other than the 5,000 deaths and 100,000 cases spreading like wildfire)…..Other than that, he’s doing a great job! And when he’s not, he can just blame Trump!
I lived in my prior condo for 15 years. Like this, the building was 8 units and most people stayed a reasonable amount of time (some were aberrations). When I sold (because I really wanted a house), one announced soon before that they were selling (had a smaller place than mine and a second child on the way), and one soon after (didn’t share the reasons but I think tired of the neighborhood from the slight info I have). It was weird but just coincidence. I don’t see anything here to suggest otherwise although I’d look into it if a buyer.
JB is incompetent, too many people died, and JB is awful, he shut down irrationally and won’t open up fast enough — both of which HD has been saying, as well as “it’s just the flu,” and “JB didn’t blame Chinatown,” all of which are of course inconsistent and obviously a politically biased (PDS is right). Oh, and obsessing about how JB is fat, which seems irrelevant (Trump is fat too, and has an awful diet and no exercise but golfing in a cart, but HD LOVES him for no discernible reason).
JB arguably shut down schools too late (the Archdiocese shut them down sooner, they were shut down late in NYC as well). The reason was belief that children didn’t catch or spread this (seems like they might spread it), and concern about parents who have children they need to care for. HD seems sympathetic to the JB/BdB concerns here, but of course cannot admit it — they suck for shutting down schools too late and also for shutting them down at all in HD land.
And again, HD is ignoring all the shut downs that happened before Chicago or IL did a thing.
Oh, but if we promised a fireworks display on 7/4, we’d be all fine economically.
Personally, I’ve been able to buy what I wanted during this. I have 3 bikes, weird your kids had none (that’s on you) and couldn’t find even second hand ones. My neighbor’s kids have been largely playing with a basketball hoop, which they seem to enjoy. Lots of kids around here are running and playing in parks (with just space and grass needed for fun — as I recall our main game as a kid required no park equipment as it was rare we’d be taken to a park with equipment, we did have bikes and a swingset in our backyard).
Who knew we were disadvantaged!
This all sucks, yes, but claiming JB did too much in shutting down the state and is at fault for Chicago having a lot of cases is just dumb. And similarly claiming JB overreacted and IL’s economy is screwed as a result when most states and the US recommended the same (including many R states like OH) is dopey. The idea that JB, and not coronavirus, hurt the state economy is nuts.
“Except JB bungled his way there and now we have over 5,000 deaths.”
No. He didn’t HD. And you saying it over and over again isn’t going to make it so. You know how I know?
1. Montgomery Alabama now has no available beds and they are moving patients to Birmingham.
2. Birmingham is filling quickly and could soon follow Montgomery. Then what?
3. Omaha, Nebraska is now 75% filled. Nebraska never shutdown. But don’t worry- there’s nothing going on there.
4. Arkansas has seen 6 straight days of case gains and is close to the last “peak” which was on April 27. Doesn’t sound like they’re bending the curve there.
5. In Arizona, they saw the highest single day visits to the ER attributed to positive or suspected COVID cases over Memorial Day weekend statewide. The Mayor of Scottsdale took to social media to scold those who were partying and not practicing social distancing. The Yuma Medical Center has seen hospitalized COVID patients triple over the last 2 weeks.
And I could go on with several other states.
And you want to complain about JB?
Stop it.
We’re one of the few with falling cases and hospitalizations.
“30 year fixed mortgages can now be had for as low as 2.75%, 15 years for 2.375%. Not going much lower this time around.”
Yep- but until those rates start to rise, as we’ve seen in the past, they’re STILL at record lows. They’re still propping up the housing market. And it will take a lot higher to squash Chicago’s market as our prices aren’t going anywhere.
Higher rates will take a bite out of California and the East Coast though.
“Our hospitals never got overwhelmed and we never needed all the beds at McCormick Place.”
That’s because this COVID is a hoax. It’s the flu.
HD you will proven wrong about Chicago dying, because this will be in the past soon. It’s a hoax.
The Plandemic/pandemic people are so invested in their lives’ work, they blew this out of proportion. When you life is Plandemic focused it’s like the military/industrial complex. Just as if you are a General, you spent your life waiting to fight (a war), so when something arises (Hong Kong, Crimea, Venezuela, Palestine, Syria, afghanistan) these losers will actually WANT something that justifies theie existence. The same exists with Fauci and Birx and Gates.
So, now that we agree this is a hoax, Sabrina will be proven right.
HD, I like your comments and you are right. Your comments about Detroit and Baltimore and “blue cities” are dead on. But sorry, your problem is that you are miserable and you want everyone else to be. Sabrina is glass half-full, you are half-empy and want everyone else to be with you.
You’ve said such hateful things towards me, but it’s OK I don’t want censorship. True conservatives live deep in the city or deep in the country, you are half-ass. All of the stuff I’ve mentioned about Chicago is dead on true, including about our homosexual pervert mayor.
This will all be over in a year, it’s not a pandemic, it’s the flu. And a big hoax.
GWB created the Homeland Security dept. because of “Muslims and terrorism”, but now we see a MILITARIZED police state directed at all of us, liberal or conservative. Soon we’ll have contract tracing, and digitized everything tracking all of us. See the big picture, this hoax is going to introduce things that were only in movies years ago.
So, you admit that Trump is just a useful idiot for the Deep State?
I mean, that’s what the Rothschilds would do, right? Find a useful idiot to rail against the Deep State, brag about draining the swamp, while firing all of the Watchmen? Rile up the proles and get them to demand that the state provide more security for them. I mean, look what they’ve done to eh NRA–it’s practically dead.
“HD you will proven wrong about Chicago dying, because this will be in the past soon. It’s a hoax.”
Will it be? Sabrina insists that cases are rising elsewhere and our governor says no phase 5 until cure, immunity or effective treatment. So, this might be going on for a long time, especially if there is seasonality to this. Imagine the Cubs moving to Florida permanently because in blue states with mismanaged public health systems the coronavirus death rate is .4%. That’s the CDC’s own numbers from yesterday. And it’s .05% for people ages 0-49. Google it. So no cubs games, no sox games, no 4am bars or any packed bars, no college house parties, no dorm cafeterias, no food halls, nothing until a cure, herd immunity or effective treatment.
So, yeah. Other states without the mask wearing requirements are looking mighty appealing. You may not be able to leave your house without a mask, according to our governor, probably forever. This is the new normal folks. Down vote me all you want, there’s no opinion in this post, it’s all facts in this post. if you don’t like what I have to say, or don’t believe it, you’re denying the facts yourself and lying to yourself. The only place you’ll be free to walk around without a mask is, you know, every surrounding state except IL. Remember, phase 4: Restrictions: Face coverings and social distancing are the norm. Hope you like wearing a mask for the rest of your life folks!
Bob, tell me where I can get a 15 year fixed at 2.375% without a buy down.
“Imagine the Cubs moving to Florida permanently”
Their cable channel would be dead, and they’d be leaving more than half of the family’s investment in the team to rot at Clark & Addison. Seems pretty unlikely.
“there’s no opinion in this post”
It’s your opinion that the requirement for phase 5 is immutable.
“This is the new normal folks.”
That’s an opinion, too.
Just move, HD. You know you want to. Nothing to stay for now, amirite??
I second Gary’s request. Who is offering that?
“This all sucks, yes, but claiming JB did too much in shutting down the state and is at fault for Chicago having a lot of cases is just dumb. And similarly claiming JB overreacted and IL’s economy is screwed as a result when most states and the US recommended the same (including many R states like OH) is dopey. The idea that JB, and not coronavirus, hurt the state economy is nuts.”
Not nuts, you’re just making excuses.
Look at other surrounding states that are all open. In fact, the states run by democrats, with the strictest shutdowns, are the states that have the most cases and most deaths.
Not trying to make this political, but it totally is. To try and blame ‘da virus’ instead of, you know, JB’s incompetence, is absurd. It’s totally JB and his incompetence that made Cook County the epicenter. To lie to yourself and say its the virus is to normalize JB’s anti-science and counterproductive shutdown.
As for bikes, I’ve got plenty, thanks, I took care of that over the winter, when I saw what was happening in Wuhan, and I know our governor would be salivating to lock us all indoors to consolidate his power. And of course he did.
“And again, HD is ignoring all the shut downs that happened before Chicago or IL did a thing.”
Again, this is another lie you believe and tell yourself. JB regularly touts his toughness as making IL one of the very first to shutdown (like just Wuhan!) and have the strictest shutdown measures. So to say “all the shut downs” is just a lie, a flat out lie. But go ahead, I know that cognitive dissonance is difficult to overcome when faced with facts that destroy your narrative.
““there’s no opinion in this post”
It’s your opinion that the requirement for phase 5 is immutable.
“This is the new normal folks.”
That’s an opinion, too.”
I encourage you to read Gov. Phased Guidelines and then report back.
“Bitter pill: Pritzker says without vaccine, treatment or immunity ‘returning to normalcy doesn’t exist’”
https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/2020/5/5/21248601/pritzker-reopen-restore-illinois-vaccine-treatment-immunity-normalcy-downstate-regions
“I know that we all have a passionate desire to return to the sense of normalcy that we felt before the world knew of COVID-19. Here’s the truth. And I don’t like it any more than you do,” Pritzker said at his daily briefing. “Until we have a vaccine, or an effective treatment, or enough widespread immunity that new cases fail to materialize, the option of returning to normalcy doesn’t exist.” – JB Pritzker, May 5, 2020.
Don’t gaslight us Anon(tfo).
“That’s because this COVID is a hoax. It’s the flu.”
Do you really believe this or are you just trying to stir the pot? When was the last time a flu (there is no THE flu) killed 100,000 people in a little over 2 months?
“I encourage you to read Gov. Phased Guidelines and then report back.”
So, that’s like the Constitution?
Except written in stone?
Wholly immutable?
That’s your position *as a lawyer*?
“Wholly immutable? ”
So you’re asking me to listen to JB’s own words, which he has reiterated multiple times in multiple ways, and ignore them. And instead, put my own spin on it and assume that when the Gov. says “no returning to normalcy”, he is actually lying?
Someone is in denial here. It isn’t me.
https://coronavirus.illinois.gov/s/restore-illinois-phase-4
HOW WE MOVE TO THE NEXT PHASE
Post-pandemic: Vaccine, effective and widely available treatment, or the elimination of new cases over a sustained period of time through herd immunity or other factors.
HD, you’re supposed to take JB’s words seriously, but not literally.
This is interesting:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/27/bad-state-coronavirus-data-trump-reopening-286143
In at least a dozen states, health departments have inflated testing numbers or deflated death tallies by changing criteria for who counts as a coronavirus victim and what counts as a coronavirus test, according to reporting from POLITICO, other news outlets and the states’ own admissions. Some states have shifted the metrics for a “safe” reopening; Arizona sought to clamp down on bad news at one point by simply shuttering its pandemic modeling. About a third of the states aren’t even reporting hospital admission data — a big red flag for the resurgence of the virus.
“HOW WE MOVE TO THE NEXT PHASE”
POTUS, who is the greatest, most beautiful man ever to deign to serve our country as leader, and a very stable genius, who has a special ability when it comes to virology, has said again and again that there will be a vaccine by year end.
Are you saying that Trump is *wrong*??
“This is interesting”
It’s nice to see some reporting on it. It’s been obvious that some of those shenanigans were happening since early April.
To get it out of the way: “What about NYC??” Yes, they certainly included some non-covid-related respiratory deaths in the number when they added the few thousand. Perhaps even as many as a thousand. So, perhaps, we wouldn’t have hit 100k dead until next week…
BUT what about FL and GA (and others) clearly under-reporting? Not testing the dead, and just calling them pneumonia or something else?
Sabrina said “As I said, Illinois is the only state that has met the reopening requirements set out by the scientists.”
This is a flat out lie. Total tests / 100K is not a criteria. Hospitalizations near zero can’t go down. Only 1 of the 2 cases decreasing criteria needs to be met. Hospital ICU beds is also not a criteria.
States currently meeting criteria: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wyoming.
This all based on the current status on the propublica dashboard. It does not account for states that may have met the criteria earlier in the month, and now have increasing cases from reopening (which is expected, and the reason that they need to meet gating criteria again)
How can you tell JB is lying? His lips are moving!
Sonies comment above:
Because they will all defend JB to the death. Even when his incompetence causes death. They read and believe the narrative and it makes them feel good. JB is keeping us safe they say! As if falsely believing every other state isn’t ‘safe’ even though Cook County is the epicenter of coronavirus deaths and our death per million count puts us well into the top 10 countrywide.
The reality is that he’s keeping us unsafe. And whatever he’s doing in nursing homes, and hospitals, and his hidden super top secret ‘science and data and guidance’ models are a black box that we all just need to trust. But he’s a progressive, so the trust runs deep with this billionaire.
HD,
What exactly do you think Pritzker should have done differently given what was known at the time?
“our death per million count puts us well into the top 10 countrywide.”
what, state wide? IL is about 390 per million right now.
higher rates: NY, NJ, MA, PA, MI, CT, LA, RI, DC
about the same: MD
Which makes for a tie for 10th, or 9th, if you exclude DC.
IL is also the 12th most densely populated state, so it’s not shocking that we’re near that rank in a communicable disease.
If you go to county numbers, there are 10 counties just in NY with higher per capita death rates than Cook.
“This is a flat out lie. Total tests / 100K is not a criteria. Hospitalizations near zero can’t go down. Only 1 of the 2 cases decreasing criteria needs to be met. Hospital ICU beds is also not a criteria.”
Three states have met the federal requirements sonies. This has been reported by the national press. They are NY, NJ and IL.
Cases are rising in many of the states you list above. They are SCREWED.
Look at Wisconsin. My god. Just hit a new peak in cases as of yesterday. Just 2 weeks after the court overrode the governor and everyone went out to the bars to party. Rock on!
Prayers for our neighbors to the north. I know people who live there. Let’s hope it turns the other way soon. Prayers for our medical professionals in that state. Ugh.
“In fact, the states run by democrats, with the strictest shutdowns, are the states that have the most cases and most deaths.”
Yes. This is key, right?
What states are “run by Democrats”?
Most of those have the largest cities. Hence, it’s easier to catch and transfer a highly contagious virus in those states.
And Louisiana, which has a Democratic governor, otherwise would take offense at being called “run by Democrats.”
The fact remains, that Illinois has bent the curve. The reopening is happening. We are highly at risk in Chicago of a second wave. Lots of precautions will be taken here by the Mayor. You don’t live in the city, HD, so what do you care? Except the suburbs have seen an even larger outbreak due to all those manufacturing/distribution facilities. The far west suburbs has that big transportation hub near Joliet. I can’t even imagine how difficult it is out there right now trying to keep the virus out of those facilities.
“Imagine the Cubs moving to Florida permanently”
Baseball’s fan base is very, very old. Oldest in all of sports. GenZ and Millennials don’t care. This would make some sense with Florida’s really old population base.
“So no cubs games, no sox games, no 4am bars or any packed bars, no college house parties, no dorm cafeterias, no food halls, nothing until a cure, herd immunity or effective treatment.”
So delusional HD. JB said a few days ago that they are looking at MLB baseball in Chicago in July. Just won’t be any fans there.
And South Korea found out the hard way about “packed” bars as they had to pull back on that after a super spreader infected a couple dozen people in just a few hours at the clubs.
Also, I don’t understand the obsession with the masks.
My god.
Get some balls man.
It saves lives. Order some nice linen and cotton ones online. They’re not uncomfortable or hot.
“That’s because this COVID is a hoax. It’s the flu.”
HH is back to talk about something other than housing, which he clearly knows nothing about.
Reminder: He doesn’t live in Chicago.
Also, if you seriously think this incompetent federal government, which can’t even send out $1200 stimulus payments or order PPE, is going to contract trace, then you really are clueless.
“Baseball’s fan base is very, very old. Oldest in all of sports. GenZ and Millennials don’t care. This would make some sense with Florida’s really old population base.“
Where are they going to put it? Tampa can’t draw flues and the Marlins aren’t much better.
I know you only count SWPL’s as GenZ and Millennials. Hispanics are a growing fan base, but you don’t count them
Gary,
JB has some serious explaining to do. The figures speak for themselves, and he did a bad job. Not as bad as some in, say, New York (ahem, chinese new year parade) but nowhere near as well as California, or Florida and Texas, the states twice our size with a fraction of our deaths per capita. WE’re not the worst state, but we’re bad. As for the transmission of the virus only bad job (and not economy, which is for another day)
First of all, JB has been using his own models, from various sources, which he has not released to the public, so we really don’t know is going on inside that black box. He just says that he’s using science and data, that only he understands or sees, kind of like how the priesthood was the only class of people that could see and read the bible in Latin.
Secondly, close to 90% of our state’s deaths have been aged 60 or older, so, what the heck is going on with nursing homes? Was he sending people back to LTC facilities after being released from the hospital? How did so many of these homes get infected?
Third, he’s been talking about contact tracing for months now, and hasn’t he got around to it? Where’s the team of contract tracers we’ve been waiting for? I mean, we’ve know about this for months now.
Fourth, poor neighborhoods with multi-generational households were affected greatly, and they were a huge transmitter of the virus. Why weren’t testing stations set up much earlier to detect these localized neighborhood hot spots?
Fifth, the state doesn’t release localized hot spot information, just zip codes, for fear of stigmatizing the people who live there. That’s bunk. I’d like to know if a local grocery store, or liquor store, or corner where community members socialize, or apartment/condo complex is a hot spot. The community members could take even stricter precautions to avoid catching it.
Sixth, he spent a lot of time whining and complaining about the federal government, which surely hindered our ability to procure from the federal government. JB had nothing but vitriol and contempt for anyone associated with the federal government at every level, including the non-political federal front line workers doing everything they could to help us out.
Seven, as crazy as it seems, there’s not much correlation between the severity of the shutdown and the spread of the disease. SO why shutdown? He can’t go back and say that he was wrong – he was one of the first to shutdown, and he needs to justify it, so he is reinforcing his wrongheaded beliefs.
These are all legitimate complaints. other states handled things different and have far better outcomes. If he wants credit for taking bold actions, he also has to take blame for the poor results. He can’t just blame Trump. He had poor results and the numbers bear that out.
His economic decisions are even worse for IL but that’s another post for another day.
HD,
I have to agree with a lot of what you said but I don’t think it’s as simple as poor results = lockdown bad or fat man bad. There are soooo many variables: population density, population compliance, % essential workers, reliance on public transportation, living conditions, and, yes, nursing home precautions. I have to rely upon common sense. My family was locking down whether or not the mayor or the governor told us to. It will be a long time before any of us fly or go to a restaurant and large events are out of the question until this virus is pretty much a non-issue. I would be shocked if any of us got sick. I don’t see how that would even be possible. So, if every household did that to the extent they could I don’t see how that couldn’t result in fewer cases. However, fewer =/= low. The problem is we will never know what would have happened without the lockdown but I don’t see how it couldn’t have been worse.
“I would be shocked if any of us got sick. I don’t see how that would even be possible.”
Why would you be shocked if you got sick Gary? Do you go to the grocery store or the drug store? Are you still working? Taking people into properties for showings?
My uncle tested positive for COVID 3 weeks ago. He is 74. Doesn’t live in a nursing home or assisted living. Was taking precautions. Washed his hands. Wore masks. He’s single. No one in the house “brought it home.” He has recovered. Had all the normal symptoms of chills, fever, cough, no taste or smell. We knew even before he got the test results that he had it. We were lucky that he’s in good health and didn’t have the super severe case of it as others get.
It was still nasty. He lost 30 pounds. Calls it the worst flu he’s ever had. It’s taken him nearly 3 weeks before he started feeling “better.”
Just wondering why you think you can’t get a super contagious virus. Unless you are literally quarantining yourself without ever going out- then there’s a risk.
They’re not sure how he got it. Was going to Costco and Jewel every 8 or 9 days for groceries. Went during the “senior hours.” Wore a mask. Did go through the McDonald’s drive-thru for breakfast once or twice. Who knows?
“but nowhere near as well as California, or Florida and Texas, the states twice our size with a fraction of our deaths”
Florida and Texas don’t have the dense cities or public transit like Illinois does. Nor do they have an international airport with direct China flights coming in in the same number as Chicago does. O’Hare is an Asia hub.
LA County continues to be a hot bed and the border cities down near San Diego aren’t good. San Francisco shut down quickly and has remained mostly shut. Good for them. Great move by their government has helped contain the cases/death rate.
Texas cases continue to rise and now they are reporting some of the mysterious cases impacting children as New York reported. Let’s hope this is all they get and those don’t get worse.
Florida’s nursing homes have been horrendous, but what is new? They were horrendous during the hurricanes too.
So, yeah, I’ll take what Illinois and Chicago have done over being in any of those other states. We have bent the curve. We’ll see if we can keep it bent.
“I know you only count SWPL’s as GenZ and Millennials. Hispanics are a growing fan base, but you don’t count them”
I don’t know the ethnic makeup of baseball fans. I only know the age makeup and it is OLD. Last I saw the average age is over 50. They can’t even get the young kids to play it anymore (of ANY race.) It’s THAT bad.
“They’re not sure how he got it. Was going to Costco and Jewel every 8 or 9 days for groceries. Went during the “senior hours.” Wore a mask. Did go through the McDonald’s drive-thru for breakfast once or twice. Who knows?”
Well, that’s concerning. I handle very few clients personally. Usually special situations. My agents do almost all the business. I supervise along with my partner. Only my wife shops – once a week with a mask and everyone else in the store at that time had masks. I went to 2 deserted stores twice in the last week and the sales associates had masks. I disinfect or quarantine all our groceries when they come in. I quarantine all our packages and mail and then wash my hands after handling them eventually.
I’ve been cautious with take out food. I don’t buy the story that it’s not transmitted that way. I don’t trust the packaging or the food itself. Now that the restaurants are more cautious I’m a bit more comfortable. I prefer to reheat the food in the oven if I can.
I’ll tell you a story…I worked in optics a long time ago. You could never talk over the lenses because drops of saliva or respiration would get on them. So imagine someone handling your food while talking.
You’re doing everything you can do. Unfortunately, there are plenty of others who are not. I was in a Whole Foods a week ago and a guy came in and was shopping without a mask. A Whole Foods employee did go up to him immediately and tell him he had to put one on or leave the store. And the guy looked surprised that he couldn’t just shop without one even though it was well after the state put the regulation into effect.
Gary, if you believe that it can be passed by food delivery like Papa John’s or Chipotle, wouldn’t there be more spread? They’re doing record business right now. You’d think there would be outbreaks in some city neighborhoods from the delivery if it was transmitting it.
My uncle is in the suburbs. He wasn’t doing food delivery other than stopping at the McDonald’s drive-thru occasionally.
But your caution is another reminder that no one is going to want to get on Metra or the subway any time soon.
“Gary, if you believe that it can be passed by food delivery like Papa John’s or Chipotle, wouldn’t there be more spread? They’re doing record business right now. You’d think there would be outbreaks in some city neighborhoods from the delivery if it was transmitting it.”
Correct. But to know this we would have to have decent contact tracing in place and I have no confidence that this is the case.
“Florida and Texas don’t have the dense cities”
In the top 30
Illinois
3 Chicago
Texas
4 Dallas/Ft Worth
5 Houston
24 San Antonio
29 Austin
FL
7 Miami
18 Tampa/St Pete
Yeah, ok
“food delivery like Papa John’s”
…
“outbreaks in some city neighborhoods”
Do people in the city really order from PJ? Wow!
In the top 30
Illinois
3 Chicago
Texas
4 Dallas/Ft Worth
5 Houston
24 San Antonio
29 Austin
FL
7 Miami
18 Tampa/St Pete
Yeah, ok
But that’s not based on density, just metro area population, right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population_density
I haven’t heard this discussed, but would older apartment/condo buildings that have a central HVAC be a greater risk than buildings that have individual HVAC?
“Florida and Texas don’t have the dense cities”
In the top 30
Illinois
3 Chicago
Texas
4 Dallas/Ft Worth
5 Houston
24 San Antonio
29 Austin
FL
7 Miami
18 Tampa/St Pete”
That looks like a list by size, not density.
BUT: using 2016 numbers (wiki, sorry), out of the 317 cities over 100,000 population:
Miami = #8 (12,599/sq mi) (Hialeah is #18, and many other SE FL burgs in top 50-ish; other small burbs are similar)
Chicago = #12 (11,900/sq mi) (using 100k cutoff excludes denser burbs, Stone Park, Elmwood Park, Berwyn and Cicero are all denser than Chicago)
[yes, using ’10 census numbers, it’s flipped, but Miami has been growing and Chicago hasn’t]
Densest places in Texas are Garland and Arlington (~4,100/sq mi), around 110th, slightly behind such notably dense places as Hillsboro, OR, and Glendale, AZ.
Houston (3,613/sq mi) is about as dense as suburban Denver, and Dallas (3,866/sq mi) is less dense than its own inner suburbs (Plano, eg, is 3,990).
In most buildings with central HVAC it’s hot or cold water running through pipes and individual fans running across those pipes. So no issue.
However, this could be a concern in restaurants. But they don’t think it is being spread THROUGH AC units but rather the airflow blows the virus from one person to another. They actually did an analysis of a cluster and found that one table in a restaurant blew the virus to an adjoining table via the A/C but other tables were not affected.
“Densest places in Texas are Garland and Arlington (~4,100/sq mi), around 110th, slightly behind such notably dense places as Hillsboro, OR, and Glendale, AZ.
Houston (3,613/sq mi) is about as dense as suburban Denver, and Dallas (3,866/sq mi) is less dense than its own inner suburbs (Plano, eg, is 3,990).”
Houston has wide swaths of undeveloped areas. If no one is living in the area is it worth acknowledging? Id make the argument that on a micro level, the densities are comparable
“In most buildings with central HVAC it’s hot or cold water running through pipes and individual fans running across those pipes. So no issue.
However, this could be a concern in restaurants. But they don’t think it is being spread THROUGH AC units but rather the airflow blows the virus from one person to another. They actually did an analysis of a cluster and found that one table in a restaurant blew the virus to an adjoining table via the A/C but other tables were not affected.”
You’re only talking about the VAV box, not the supply. The main AHU/RTU is going to It going to pre-condition the air. Depending on how much outside air they’re bringing in will dictate how much air is shared between units. !00% outside air – no problem. If they’re recirculating return air – potential problem
” Id make the argument that on a micro level, the densities are comparable”
Houston and Chicago? GTFO
Yes, every assisted living facility, meat packing plant and jail in the country–whether in Chicago, Houston, or East Boondocks, ND, is comparably dense on a micro level.
But, in any case, now *you* are moving the goalposts.
ps: just take the win I pointed out w/r/t Miami.
Unless they permanently close the lake, we’re not leaving. I don’t hear anyone in my building talking about leaving. Everything I hear lately is “I miss my cleaning lady”.
“Yes, every assisted living facility, meat packing plant and jail in the country–whether in Chicago, Houston, or East Boondocks, ND, is comparably dense on a micro level.
But, in any case, now *you* are moving the goalposts.”
Wasn’t thinking that micro.
The point is the population density isn’t monolithic – Beverly doesn’t have the same density as Old Town.
“Wasn’t thinking that micro.”
The dense parts of Texas approximate the overall density of Chicago:
https://kinder.rice.edu/2017/04/17/sure-houston-has-sprawl-but-some-areas-have-east-coast-levels-of-density
Beverly, at the Community Area level, by comparison, is 20,822 people in 2,038.1 acres (including 257.6 of open space), or 3.18 sm (2.78 deducting open space) or ~6,550 (~7,500) per sq mi., or still considerably denser than Houston average.
[not a link to avoid moderation:]
www dot cmap dot illinois dot gov/documents/10180/126764/Beverly dot pdf
Just posted my May update. As you might expect closings fell off a cliff – down 42.5% (IAR will say 43.6%) but contract activity coming back and inventory levels (months of supply) are lower after a big jump in April: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/06/may-chicago-real-estate-market-as-expected-worst-ever-sales-decline/
“As you might expect closings fell off a cliff – down 42.5% (IAR will say 43.6%) but contract activity coming back and inventory levels (months of supply) are lower after a big jump in April:”
Great report Gary. Thanks for posting the link.
I don’t think anyone is surprised by these numbers at all.
Looks like the housing market has done a “V”, though, and is going back to where it should be for this time of the year pretty quickly.
I just saw some data that said that contracts were slightly higher over the last week than they were at this time last year so that’s good. And isn’t that what your data said as well?
The low inventory of both detached and attached is crazy. It’s definitely a seller’s market although I think if you get too greedy and price too high or don’t bother to update any of your finishes, you still sit on the market. The buyers are still being picky, even without any inventory.
It will be interesting to see how much new inventory actually comes on during the rest of this month.
I actually finally got to the bottom of the absurdly low market time (36 days) that you picked up from IAR. After about 4 rounds of emails over the course of a month I found out that they are reporting only the market time for the last listing. As we’ve discussed previously that’s not a good measure. The more correct market time, which is readily available, takes into account all previous listings – unless it was unlisted for 91 days or longer.
“After about 4 rounds of emails over the course of a month I found out that they are reporting only the market time for the last listing.”
Thanks for finding out what was going on with the data Gary.
As we all know, the market time isn’t very accurate if you only list it from the last listing as many realtors yank listings and relist to keep it “fresh” – even sometimes just reducing the price $1. Lol.