Market Conditions: January Sales Up 14.2% in Strongest January Since 2007
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the January home sales data.
The strong 2020 housing market appears to be continuing into 2021.
From the IAR:
In the city of Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in January 2021 totaled 1,670 homes sold, up 14.2 percent from January 2020 sales of 1,462 homes.
The median price of a home in Chicago in January 2021 was $310,000, up 15.9 percent compared to January 2020 when it was $267,500.
Sales Data Since 2006 (thanks to G for the older data):
- January 2006: 2009 sales and median price of $258,000
- January 2007: 1850 sales and median price of $279,900
- January 2008: 1203 sales and median price of $290,000
- January 2009: 918 sales and median price of $205,000
- January 2010: 1237 sales and median price of $195,000
- January 2011: 1034 sales and median price of $150,000
- January 2012: 1123 sales and median price of $149,000
- January 2013: 1521 sales and median price of $157,000
- January 2014: 1383 sales and median price of $200,750
- January 2015: 1348 sales and median price of $220,000
- January 2016: 1398 sales and median price of $227,750
- January 2017: 1574 sales and median price of $255,000
- January 2018: 1444 sales and median price of $265,000
- January 2019: 1347 sales and median price of $255,000
- January 2020: 1462 sales and median price of $267,500
- January 2021: 1670 sales and median price of $310,000
“As we started to settle from the outcome of the election and the beginning stages of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, we saw strong sales in January,” said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and vice president of brokerage services at Coldwell Banker Realty.
“Buyers created a surge in winter activity, with a 21.2 percent increase in condo closed sales as well as a 14.2 percent increase in closed sales of all properties. Inventory dipped slightly year over year, which may have played a part in the double digit (15.9 percent) change in median sales price for all properties and a -13.5 percent decline in days on market.”
The 30-year average mortgage rate remained near record lows at 2.74% in January up from 2.68% in December but still down almost 1% from January 2020 where it averaged 3.62%.
“The 2021 state housing market got off to a roaring start in January with higher annual home sales and prices,” said Sue Miller, president of Illinois REALTORS® and designated managing broker of Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group in McHenry. “Winter isn’t slowing down consumers who are eager to buy, but tight inventory and an increasingly competitive market have become obstacles.”
Inventory continues to plunge statewide, but in Chicago, it has barely budged.
- Illinois inventory: down 42.9% to 26,844 from 47,052 in 2020
- Chicago metro: down 41.2% to 17,963 from 30,570 in 2020
- Chicago: down 1.3% to 7,679 from 7,784 in 2020
Contrary to public perception, the condo market was hotter than single family homes in Chicago in January.
Condo sales were up 21.2% to 959 but single family home sales rose just 6% to 711.
Single family home inventory continues to be tight in the city, however.
February and March will be easy months to lap given that the initial COVID lockdowns hit in those months a year ago.
But will the spring selling season remain this robust?
Illinois kicks off a new housing year with strong January gains in home sales and prices [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, February 19, 2021]
Can one of these shills admit that the COVID pushed out home buying and is at least partially responsible for the seasonal increase?
The median sale price is misleading especially when you contrast that to Case-Shiller data today which is up <8% good but certainly not ~16% .
This tells me the upper end of the market is driving sales which does not bold well for millennials/first time homebuyers who don't have trust funds/rich parents.
"Contrary to public perception, the condo market was hotter than single family homes in Chicago in January."
Lets break this out further between SFH vs. sales in 3 – 5 flats vs. high rise condo. Are the condo sales occurring in River North/West Loop/South Loop or Lakeview/Edgewater/Lincoln Park?
It was common knowledge that condo's in neighborhoods were still selling it was around the loop that was struggling. I'm not sure if that changed or not with this data.
“Lets break this out further between SFH vs. sales in 3 – 5 flats vs. high rise condo”
————————
Three-to-five flats are mostly investors doing rentals. Yes, some small condo associations, but majority are investment rentals with owner living on site.
If you scroll the sales history in zillow or wherever in the near north, the numbers do not match this at all. People that bought condos have been crushed. Maybe SFH is doing well but 3/4 of buyers in the last 20 YEARS have lost money. Nice buildings too. 21 huron, 340 Randolph, 225 Columbus, 600 LSD, 130 Garland, 800 Michigan, etc. Huge losses.
“Maybe SFH is doing well but 3/4 of buyers in the last 20 YEARS have lost money. Nice buildings too. 21 huron, 340 Randolph, 225 Columbus, 600 LSD, 130 Garland, 800 Michigan, etc. Huge losses.”
If you bought during the housing bubble years, and didn’t do any upgrades, yes, you might be taking a loss.
Some Chicago condos are just barely back to the bubble highs downtown. Depends on the building, if the owner did the upgrades, the views etc.
“The median sale price is misleading especially when you contrast that to Case-Shiller data today which is up <8% good but certainly not ~16%."
Case Schiller includes areas all the way out to Joliet, doesn't it?
“Are the condo sales occurring in River North/West Loop/South Loop or Lakeview/Edgewater/Lincoln Park?”
Why do you assume all condos are sold downtown or on the north side WP?
Plenty of condos on the south side too. Plenty in West Town and Logan Square.
But the data has shown a hot condo market in the north side neighborhoods with little inventory. Downtown is the weakest, with the most inventory. There are 200+ condos available in the St Regis, for example.
“Can one of these shills admit that the COVID pushed out home buying and is at least partially responsible for the seasonal increase?”
COVID “pushed out” the initial sales that would have happened in March to June. It didn’t keep pushing them out JohnnyU.
By May, the city was open, the real estate agents figured out “safe” viewing of properties, people were fine with walking through on their own wearing masks, gloves, booties etc.
Someone who was going to buy in March, but couldn’t because of COVID, didn’t sit around waiting until December to suddenly start looking just as the next big outbreak was about to hit (and we were being warned about it).
Lol.
NONE of this is COVID delayed buying in 2021. It is people deciding that the rates are low, they are tired of their apartments, they need more space, they don’t want neighbors etc.
This IS the market now.
A lot of people made decisions because of the pandemic. They are now acting on them.
And just wait and see what happens if they include a $15,000 first time home buyers credit in the next aid package.
“ By May, the city was open, the real estate agents figured out “safe” viewing of properties, people were fine with walking through on their own wearing masks, gloves, booties etc.“
And sales will still junk – http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/06/may-chicago-real-estate-market-as-expected-worst-ever-sales-decline/
“Someone who was going to buy in March, but couldn’t because of COVID, didn’t sit around waiting until December to suddenly start looking just as the next big outbreak was about to hit (and we were being warned about it).”
If you don’t think Covid pushed out sales you are ignorant. So how do 2020 sales compare to previous 3 years?
“ And just wait and see what happens if they include a $15,000 first time home buyers credit in the next aid package.”
We’ve seen this movie before, Pull more buyers forward, Prices will increase in the short term.
Why is a $15k credit needed? I recall someone clawing how HAWT ™ the market is
You are dishonest and delusional
“3/4 of buyers in the last 20 YEARS have lost money. Nice buildings too. … 340 Randolph … Huge losses.”
Imma have to be shown some data on 340, and it has to exclude sub-2 year holds, as that’s a known issue everywhere (outside of overheated markets).
“COVID “pushed out” the initial sales that would have happened in March to June. It didn’t keep pushing them out[.]”
W?
T?
F?
?
?
?
“Case Schiller includes areas all the way out to Joliet, doesn’t it?”
Yes. It’s metro Chicago includes Naperville as well. Represented counties include Cook, DeKalb DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendal, McHenry, Will.
Adds to the point that appreciation numbers are largely skewed to the upper end of the market; SFH’s on the North and Northwest Side of the city and the suburbs, with little appreciation on neighborhood condos and likely depreciating values in and around the loop condo market especially at entry level price points.
If Case Shiller in December is up <8% for Chicago Metro it's probably up ~10%+ in Chicago burbs but only up ~5% in Chicago proper. The 16% increase in the city YoY points to ~$1MM+ SFH's selling well and seeing appreciation compared to the rest of the market. Probably throw the $700K+ condo market in and around the hot areas of the $1MM+ SFH's as well.
That's my two cents at least. We are in a severely bifurcated market when it comes to what's appreciating and thus what's truly "hot". It seems that something has to give. Either the rest of the market goes up in tandem or the upper-end that's selling was pulled forward and will likely dip when "normal" comes back.
Lowes guidance (anticipating slowdown in DIY just not sure how severe yet) and Home Depot not providing guidance today further supports this type of an outlook.
“Why do you assume all condos are sold downtown or on the north side WP?
Plenty of condos on the south side too. Plenty in West Town and Logan Square.
But the data has shown a hot condo market in the north side neighborhoods with little inventory. Downtown is the weakest, with the most inventory. There are 200+ condos available in the St Regis, for example.”
So you question my “assumption” but then confirm that my “assumption” is correct? Odd….
If you care to know why I targeted these three north side neighborhoods it’s from the data that you share and the data that I’ve seen.
Logan Square SFH market is much stronger than the condo market similar to West Town. Alot of three flats and SFH’s in these neighborhoods compared to high rise condo’s. The housing stock is skewed more to SFH than condo compared to Loop, LP, and LV. Much more density in these areas as well. So if the condo’s are starting to sell in the city again I would anticipate they are selling well where the city’s condo stock is located? Didn’t think this was difficult.
The south side is more SFH not condo’s. Outside of around UIC and near south side (just south of south loop) there’s not much of a condo market. The condo’s that are there are largely older not much new.
Like i’ve said previously though there are hot SFH markets on the south and southwest side (Bronzeville, Douglas, Bridgeport, Pilsen).
“And just wait and see what happens if they include a $15,000 first time home buyers credit in the next aid package”
This ain’t happening. There’s no reason to. The headlines on housing around the country and interest rate trends over the past month signal this.
If anything, you would incentives the builders to build more and maybe provide credits in using “green materials” which would help with multiple issues with better cost/benefit economics (keeping housing prices “affordable”, movement on environment, more hiring of homebuilders, electricians, plumbers, etc.).
Forgiving $10K in student loans or expanding solar roof credits on SFH’s have a higher probability than $15K first time buyer home credit.
“COVID “pushed out” the initial sales that would have happened in March to June. It didn’t keep pushing them out JohnnyU.”
So are you saying Gary is full of shit? – http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/07/june-chicago-real-estate-market-home-sales-still-suffering-from-covid-19/
“June sales were down 27.4% from last year, which still counts as a dramatic improvement from May’s 42.5% decline.
The graph below puts it all in historic perspective with all Junes flagged in red and a light blue 12 month moving average. You can see how this was still the worst June in 9 years, with only 2 of the last 24 years worse. And you can also see how the moving average is dying now that we’ve had 3 consecutive months with large, double digit contractions.
The Illinois Association of Realtors will come out in 2 weeks with their own set of numbers and report a 29.5% decline in June sales. They march to the beat of a different drummer.”
When will you ever stop lying & when will I get my apology?
“maybe provide credits in using “green materials””
Houses with solar panels, for certain states with grid problems!
Yes, the incentives won’t be to buy, but to build–and perhaps to a slightly more modest price point.
“If Case Shiller in December is up <8% for Chicago Metro it's probably up ~10%+ in Chicago burbs but only up ~5% in Chicago proper. The 16% increase in the city YoY points to ~$1MM+ SFH's selling well and seeing appreciation compared to the rest of the market. Probably throw the $700K+ condo market in and around the hot areas of the $1MM+ SFH's as well."
Condos are on a separate C-S index. Main index is *only* SFH.
“Imma have to be shown some data on 340, and it has to exclude sub-2 year holds, as that’s a known issue everywhere (outside of overheated markets).”
#2206 20% loss on 2015 purchase
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/340-E-Randolph-St-APT-2206-Chicago-IL-60601/89936533_zpid/
#3702 30% loss on 2007 purchase
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/340-E-Randolph-St-APT-3702-Chicago-IL-60601/89902824_zpid/
You can find some winners on the building but after closing costs, they are breakeven or small losses.
“Imma have to be shown some data on 340, and it has to exclude sub-2 year holds, as that’s a known issue everywhere (outside of overheated markets).”
340 OTP has been one of the most successful buildings of the last 15 years.
Some people bought those south facing units in pre-construction and literally doubled their money, even WITH the housing bust.
North facing units have always suffered though. They just haven’t sold for as much or appreciated as well. That would be #3702 which was bought at the height of the housing bubble in 2007. Yes, lots of condos are still not back to 2007-2008 prices.
Additionally, as I’ve been mentioning, you have to update.
The kitchens in 340 OTP are the same in every unit except for some who customized on high floors. Those kitchens are now 15 years old. Buyers want different finishes now. Same with the baths.
Plenty of winners in this building but it did seem to peak several years ago. There’s only so much someone is willing to pay for a south facing 1-bedroom, apparently.
“Yes, the incentives won’t be to buy, but to build–and perhaps to a slightly more modest price point.”
Price point is determined by land prices. Builders are building affordable in the Midwest and places like Texas and Arizona, where there is fairly cheap land as far as the eye can see.
“When will you ever stop lying & when will I get my apology?”
When did Gary say that December or January 2021 sales were sales still “pushed out” due to the spring COVID shutdowns?
Gosh, I must have missed that.
I said that the spring sales were pushed out. They had to be because everyone was sitting at home, terrified that they were going to get COVID and die. But by the summer, they were out again as the real estate industry figured it out (and some people bought sight unseen online). Love those video tours!
No, JohnnyU. These sales are NOT related to last spring’s shutdowns. It’s simply a hot market. And getting hotter and hotter as the reopen approaches.
By this summer, buyers will be looking again in the downtown as the city explodes in energy. Same will happen in NYC.
“This ain’t happening. There’s no reason to. The headlines on housing around the country and interest rate trends over the past month signal this.”
It’s included in the Biden plan WP. Not sure if it will make it into the final bill or not. We’ll see.
But yeah, they want to give the incentive to help the middle class.
“So if the condo’s are starting to sell in the city again I would anticipate they are selling well where the city’s condo stock is located? Didn’t think this was difficult.”
Lol.
Plenty of condos all over Hyde Park and Kenwood including, gasp, high rises.
Oh my god! Imagine that.
There’s more to Chicago than the north side. Cop a clue. Hyde Park, Kenwood, Woodlawn have all been hot. If condo sales are surging, might some be happening there? I would think so because I’m having a hard time finding anything to crib about down there. Little inventory.
Plenty of condos in Bronzeville. All selling at pretty brisk pace.
South Shore also has quite a few condos including up and down the lake front.
“Adds to the point that appreciation numbers are largely skewed to the upper end of the market; SFH’s on the North and Northwest Side of the city and the suburbs, with little appreciation on neighborhood condos and likely depreciating values in and around the loop condo market especially at entry level price points.”
Whut???
None of what you are “assuming” is correct WP.
In the metro area, there are simply too many properties selling for the few luxury sales to have much of an impact. There are far more $250,000 homes selling than $600,000 homes.
Your perspective is skewed reading this blog and only looking at real estate in a very small select group of neighborhoods or towns, mostly with small populations. The Chicago metro area is HUGE. Think of all the people living in middle class houses in Schaumburg. They outnumber those who live in Lake Forest, by far.
Get out and drive around a few hours in the suburbs. Or heck, do the same in the Chicago city limits. Go out to Norwood Park. Go out to Portage Park or McKinley Park or Morgan Park. I could go on and on. More of those homes selling than the handful of $1.5 greystones in Southport.
“W?
T?
F?”
Please explain why it kept pushing them out anon(tfo). Seriously. I would like to know.
If I’m a buyer who was looking in March 2020 but, whoops, everything is shut down and I’m not going to look during a pandemic when I could die. So I wait.
By May, everything is reopening and it seems safe to go out and look again, wearing a mask. And oh, by the way, mortgage rates have dropped in the meantime so it’s cheaper than ever.
I have an offer on by mid to late May and we close late June.
So, yeah, my purchase was “pushed out.” A couple of months.
I didn’t wait 6 months to close in December or January. Hell no. I was desperate to get out of my place and into my new single family house with outdoor space.
The sales happening now are organic sales. Hottest in 14 years. It’s a hot market. That’s what happens. The mortgage rates are still low. People still want their own place. They are making different decisions. No one is waiting for “spring buying season” this year. Just ask the home builders. They saw NO seasonal slowdown last year or this year.
“And sales will still junk”
JohnnyU: do you understand how real estate sales WORK?
It can take several months for properties to close after going under contract.
Of course May sales were terrible because buyers were huddled at home in March. Few things were going under contract as many listings were pulled (who wants someone in their house during a pandemic???) and buyers weren’t going out to look either.
I SAID the coronavirus pushed out the spring sales. Duh. I SAID THAT. CAN YOU READ????
But these sales are NOT pushed out sales. That ended months ago. That ended by September. Sales in the last 5 months are organic sales. And the ones going on now definitely are.
This market is red hot. Sorry you can’t follow data and what it means.
It’s going to be really annoying to be a bear for the next several years. The market cycle has turned, as all markets do. Takes a while for people to figure it out.
Prices will be going up for the next several years until the builders put out more inventory either by converting apartments to condos or by building more single family homes/townhouses or both.
Millennials are the largest generation ever. They are now buying homes. GenZ is even bigger. Look for the trend to continue in about 10 years when they are getting married and having families.
“Why is a $15k credit needed? I recall someone clawing how HAWT ™ the market is”
It’s not. But it’s included in the Biden package. They want to help the middle class. And the $10,000 first time home buyers tax credit “worked” when they did it after the Great Recession.
Chicago inventory remains incredibly low.
Is anyone actually on the market looking?
I can’t believe how slow it is. Yeah- we just had a big COVID outbreak and then the bad weather. Are sellers waiting until March to list?
Usually we see quite a few properties coming on in February but maybe the snow scared some.
There is NOTHING in some neighborhoods. It’s terrible.
Redfin says, nationally, 50% of all listings are receiving multiple bids.
“#3702 30% loss on 2007 purchase”
??? Where are you getting that? Deed (0800442179) shows $740k purchase price for 3702 + P2-68. Later bought P2-245 for $45k. Appears to still own the 2d parking space.
Yes, a $10k loss, after a dozen years, is bad, but it ain’t 30%–it’s not even 3%.
“Price point is determined by land prices.”
Nearly every teardown SFH in GZ Chciago is *radically* underpriced, based on land cost.
“Get out and drive around a few hours in the suburbs. Or heck, do the same in the Chicago city limits. Go out to Norwood Park. Go out to Portage Park or McKinley Park or Morgan Park. I could go on and on. More of those homes selling than the handful of $1.5 greystones in Southport.”
If you didn’t read the comment through the wine glass that was at your mouth last night you would understand I wasn’t saying the suburban housing market is only driven by the upper-end.
The homes that are selling in McKinley Park, Morgan Park, Portage Park, Norwood Park are not driving a 16% median sale price increase YoY in the city as Case Shiller shows only a <8% increase in Chicago Metro even though the burbs are doing better than the city.
The Case Shiller number would be closer to the city number if homes in the aforementioned neighborhoods were really in a true "bidding war".
That true bidding war is happening in certain burbs and some select neighborhoods in the city like Logan Square and Lincoln Park, and Southport for SFH's.
“If condo sales are surging, might some be happening there? I would think so because I’m having a hard time finding anything to crib about down there. Little inventory.”
Show me the data. Millennials that you are so bullish on aren’t rushing to buy condos in Hyde Park, South Shore, and Kenwood. Bronzville possibly.
“It’s included in the Biden plan WP.”
$2,000 checks “on day one” were also in his “plan”. He railroaded his own plan the day after winning the Georgia runoffs. So I take anything in his “plan” with a grain of salt. Campaigning and Governing are very different animals.
Further, the dithering that’s going on in Congress and days burning on floor time don’t provide much hope that another package is attainable. They are already going to go past the benefits cliff for unemployment next month before having the Covid bill passed and signed. Pretty pathetic when you have majorities in both chambers and the presidency.
““It’s included in the Biden plan WP”
Biden plan = sit there, drool and shit himself while nameless faceless lobbyists write whatever the fuck they feel like. Aint like the 80 year old bimbo is doing shit anyways to stop them. Its a free for all with out to lunch geriatrics at the wheel steering us off a cliff.
Mortgage rates up a good .375-.5% since beginning of Feb…
“Redfin says, nationally, 50% of all listings are receiving multiple bids.”
Redfin also says for Chicago, 31% of listings are receiving multiple bids which is up slightly from a year earlier (pre-covid) – 26%. Quite the difference compared to the national picture….
Also the bidding wars nationally are significantly higher at the top of the market compared to the bottom which is what I touched on in my earlier comments about the city but someone tried gaslighting my comments….
https://chicagoagentmagazine.com/2021/02/19/nearly-a-third-of-chicago-homes-face-bidding-wars/
“It’s simply a hot market. And getting hotter and hotter as the reopen approaches.”
Like I keep saying a hot market but for whom – people in Southport, Lincoln Park, and Logan Square or Portgage Park, McKinley Park, Norwood Park like you claim….
Redfin reports searches for $1MM+ houses highest since 2017 and at the same time searches for houses <$500M lowest since 2017. Further, sales of homes in the "luxury market" rose 61% in the three months ending November 30. The K is alive in well. Hopefully the millennials got the Trust fund money or gritted their teeth in bitcoin and GameStop to afford the monthly payments on $1MM+ homes and provided a buffer for rising property taxes.
https://chicagoagentmagazine.com/2021/02/18/searches-for-1-million-plus-homes-highest-since-2017-redfin-says/
“??? Where are you getting that? Deed (0800442179) shows $740k purchase price for 3702 + P2-68. Later bought P2-245 for $45k. Appears to still own the 2d parking space.
Yes, a $10k loss, after a dozen years, is bad, but it ain’t 30%–it’s not even 3%.”
Zillow shows a $369,000 loss after holding for 13 years.
6/18/2020 Sold $730,000 (-13%)$443/sqft
Source: MRED as distributed by MLS GRID #10536029 Reporta problem
12/11/2007 Sold $1,099,000$667/sqft
Source: Public Record Reporta problem
Go check out the rest of the buildings I cited. People are losing big time on Chicago condos in near north.
:Zillow shows a $369,000 loss after holding for 13 years.”
I’ve said many times over the years that Zillow and Redfin’s sales history is not as accurate as going straight to the public record source. Sometimes sales are missed/skipped.
You need to look at Cook County’s records.
“Go check out the rest of the buildings I cited. People are losing big time on Chicago condos in near north.”
John, some high rise owners ARE selling for losses.
Peak condo price appears to have been 2016, the last time mortgage rates were “low” before last year’s drop.
Your fate varies by building, whether or not you updated the property, views, if it has outdoor space or not.
I would NOT want to be selling a downtown property right now, however. If you can wait, it will be better on the reopen.
“Like I keep saying a hot market but for whom – people in Southport, Lincoln Park, and Logan Square or Portgage Park, McKinley Park, Norwood Park like you claim….”
The stock market is at a record high. Of COURSE luxury is doing well. It’s been like that forever. Luxury did well in 1999 too.
But McKinley Park isn’t luxury and it’s just as hot.
Check out the south side. Renovators down there fixing up bungalows and flipping them. They’re selling like hotcakes. Buyers want “new.”
“Hopefully the millennials got the Trust fund money or gritted their teeth in bitcoin and GameStop to afford the monthly payments on $1MM+ homes and provided a buffer for rising property taxes.”
They are 40.
The lawyer or doctor doesn’t need bitcoin or GameStop. Neither do the couple who are both engineers at Google.
“Redfin also says for Chicago, 31% of listings are receiving multiple bids which is up slightly from a year earlier (pre-covid) – 26%. Quite the difference compared to the national picture….”
How does THIS support your argument that it sucks in Chicago real estate right now?
It does not. It’s the opposite.
Where’s Bob the Bear? He’s going to be missing off this blog for the next few years apparently.
Lol.
“Mortgage rates up a good .375-.5% since beginning of Feb…”
Yep. Surging higher.
Higher rates will cool off the market a little bit by summer. But plenty of people who are looking right now are locked in for a few months, at least.
We’d need to see rates significantly higher to see a really large slowdown. What would that level be? 3.75%? 4%?
Anything over 4% would certainly slow it given the price increases over the last year.
“Biden plan = sit there, drool and shit himself while nameless faceless lobbyists write whatever the fuck they feel like.”
What’s the point of this comment?
If you watched the recent town hall Biden did in Wisconsin, he has an amazing grasp on all the details of this plan, down to the mundane provisions. Without any notes.
Once a legislator, always one.
He knows the bill. He’s involved with what’s in it.
If you have a problem with the bill, then voice that. But you didn’t say anything against the bill so clearly you don’t have a problem with it Ed.
“$2,000 checks “on day one” were also in his “plan”.”
Yep. That’s what’s in this.
They’ve already done the $600. Will include $1400.
And is supposed to have the homebuyers credit but they’re voting on it tomorrow in the House so we’ll see what makes that version.
The Democrats already have said they will pass a package before the unemployment insurance runs out which is March 14.
Just because the Republicans obstructed bills when they controlled the Senate, doesn’t mean the Democrats will WP.
“Show me the data. Millennials that you are so bullish on aren’t rushing to buy condos in Hyde Park, South Shore, and Kenwood. Bronzville possibly.”
Where are the listings?
I can’t blog about what doesn’t exist.
“That true bidding war is happening in certain burbs and some select neighborhoods in the city like Logan Square and Lincoln Park, and Southport for SFH’s.”
Wrong. They overbuilt luxury. Those homes are sitting. And sitting. And sitting. Few “bidding” wars there.
But the middle class bungalow under $300,000? Now THAT is rare. Especially move-in ready.
Multiple offers. Selling like hotcakes.
Get out of your elite bubble WP.
Mortgage interest rates are up 25 bips the past week on the 30 year. While in normal times this might not seem like much it’s an 11% almost overnight increase in interest expense.
The days of cheerleader shill Sabrina cheering these lofty valuations are just about over as now even the MSM is writing articles of concern about the housing market that they were ignoring only a few short weeks ago when rates were at their lowest ever and they refused to consider the consequence of their eventual rising.
“Wrong. They overbuilt luxury. Those homes are sitting. And sitting. And sitting. Few “bidding” wars there.
But the middle class bungalow under $300,000? Now THAT is rare. Especially move-in ready”
Where is this unicorn located, Cicero?
And you’ll move the goal posts wrt Move in ready – as you generally mean “New”
“Zillow shows a $369,000 loss after holding for 13 years.”
Well, zillow is wrong. I looked at the damn deeds. $740k purchase price, $730k sale price.
“Go check out the rest of the buildings I cited.”
Why would I? I only questioned the one.
It’s obviously a common issue–new condos can be a lot like new cars, except that you can update a condo to improve the value.
““$2,000 checks “on day one” were also in his “plan”.”
Yep. That’s what’s in this.
They’ve already done the $600. Will include $1400.”
I dont think its possible for you to be any more dishonest.
Your response would be 180 deg different if Orange Man Bad would have done this
Maybe give up drinking for Lent?
So is it:
“Of COURSE luxury is doing well.”
or
“They overbuilt luxury. Those homes are sitting. And sitting. And sitting. Few “bidding” wars there.”
???
“Where is this unicorn located, Cicero? ”
————————————
if by middle class you include lower middle class, blue collar neighborhoods, mostly latino, there are several around the Orange Line.
There might be one or two in the far northwest side.
“So is it:
“Of COURSE luxury is doing well.”
or
“They overbuilt luxury. Those homes are sitting. And sitting. And sitting. Few “bidding” wars there.”
???”
is it a lie if you believe it?
“There might be one or two in the far northwest side.”
This one isn’t really updated, but it’s still full of awesome, asking $290k.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/6210-W-Warwick-Ave-60634/home/13465991
“This one isn’t really updated, but it’s still full of awesome, asking $290k.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/6210-W-Warwick-Ave-60634/home/13465991”
Vinny Sez
We had a problem and we tried to do everything we could, and we couldnt do nothing about it
“If you watched the recent town hall Biden did in Wisconsin, he has an amazing grasp on all the details of this plan, down to the mundane provisions. Without any notes.”
Let’s see CNN’s Editor at large 6 takeaways:
(1) Hard Deadline on Vaccines “It’s worth noting that this is a change from Biden’s previous pledge from last month that everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by the “spring.”.
Moving the goalposts back already what an amazing grasp
(2) Clearing up the School Reopening Question: “Critics, rightly, pointed out that it appeared as a bit of a cop-out”.
They have done back-and-forth’s on this since day one. I have no idea what his plans are outside of wishful thinking. Janice Jackson CPS Head already anticipates remote learning will remain in some capacity come fall.
(3) Biden as Comforter in Chief: Sorry a wet blanket doesn’t put food on peoples tables, keep a roof over their head, get them a job, or a vaccine. CNN has to fluff a little.
(4) The end of (talking about) Trump. Unless you are in the media so you can keep the ratings going. Don’t want to bring back the depressing Obama years for Cable News Ratings.
(5) Radical View on Polarization: “despite study after study that shows that both Congress and the nation as a whole are more deeply divided along party lines than ever before, Biden insisted that we’re not. ”
What’s that line see no evil, hear no evil? That always ends up well. I call this willful ignorance.
(6) A rambling man: sounds like someone who in your words “has an amazing grasp on all the details of this plan, down to the mundane provisions. Without any notes”
Sabrina – I didn’t realize you were State TV for Joe Biden and Democratic elite establishment plutocrats.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/16/politics/joe-biden-town-hall-takeaways/index.html
“Where are the listings?
I can’t blog about what doesn’t exist.”
You can show data on all the sold homes and the price increases since its hot hot hot……
““Where are the listings?
I can’t blog about what doesn’t exist.”
You can show data on all the sold homes and the price increases since its hot hot hot……”
Its kinda like Schrödinger’s Cat Paradox
Maybe we’ll call it Sabrina’s Empty Box of Wine Paradox
“The Democrats already have said they will pass a package before the unemployment insurance runs out which is March 14.
Just because the Republicans obstructed bills when they controlled the Senate, doesn’t mean the Democrats will WP.”
Huh? You realize the Dems control the house, senate, and Presidency right? They are going through reconciliation. I’m not sure how Republicans are “obstructing”.
If you are referring to the Obama years that’s part of the job of the minority party so you can get back to being in the majority or the last 4 years of yelling Russia, Russia, Russia to get back in power.
Further, they can get rid of the filibuster but they won’t. The party that wants to add states to the union (DC/Puerto Rico) to alter the Senate, get rid of the electoral college so they don’t have to engage middle america, end gerrymandering nationwide to make it easier to win the house, and stack the supreme court is too worried about ruining arcane Senate procedures. Yeah ok blame republican obstructionism if you must.
Further, all of the bills that the house passed were signaling bills for their base. Great piece in Politico yesterday explaining it.
“In only the second month of Democrats’ unified power over government, the limits of control are becoming clear. For many Democrats, passing legislation during the last Congress that was likely to run aground in a GOP Senate was one thing. Now that bills the House passes stand a real chance of becoming law, Democrats are suddenly looking harder at their own decisions.”
Campaigning and Governing understand the difference Sabrina.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/25/house-democrats-post-riot-471653
“Higher rates will cool off the market a little bit by summer.”
Wait are you a bear now because you sound alot like me? What changed in less than two weeks Sabrina? I thought the millennials were invading and not going anywhere?
“How does THIS support your argument that it sucks in Chicago real estate right now?”
I never said it sucks right now. I just said it’s not as hot as you think it is even with the low inventory.
“cheering these lofty valuations are just about over as now even the MSM is writing articles of concern about the housing market that they were ignoring only a few short weeks ago when rates were at their lowest ever and they refused to consider the consequence of their eventual rising.”
The NY Times had to quote the great Mark Zandi who in Sabrina’s eyes must be a bear.
“Mr. Zandi, at Moody’s, said he wasn’t yet anxious about a looming disaster like the last housing bubble. But he says it is already worrisome that rising prices have boxed out many first-time and moderate-income home buyers, who for years to come may lose out on the benefits of locking in interest rates below 3 percent.
“I don’t think it’s red flares; I think it’s yellow flares,” Mr. Zandi said. “But if we have another year like we had in the past year, we’re going to have a lot of red flares going up.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/26/upshot/where-have-all-the-houses-gone.html
Strong statement from Lawrence Yun today Chief economist from National Association of Realtors
“Home sales will continue to rise modestly but gains are likely to now be in the single digits versus the 20% upticks seen in late 2020, Yun says.
“Consumers need to understand the absolute low rates in mortgages — those days are over”
Wow I think most commentators on this blog were saying the same thing the past few weeks while Sabrina shouted us all down calling us bears since jobless millennials were going to magically keep the rally going.
Given that its a national picture how large of a discount do we need to apply to Chicago since we are always at the bottom when it comes to housing statistics of the 20 major cities
https://www.axios.com/rising-mortgage-rates-home-sales-2d611246-847d-4691-b21e-e1bc2f4aae79.html
“since we are always at the bottom when it comes to housing statistics of the 20 major cities”
Nah, not “always”. When things were crashing HARD in 08/09, Chicago was nowhere close to the bottom.
“Of COURSE luxury is doing well.”
But
“They overbuilt luxury. Those homes are sitting. And sitting. And sitting. Few ‘bidding’ wars there.”
Hey hey hey. Calm down you two.
Luxury is doing well AND it’s overbuilt.
https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/shimmer-floor-wax/n8625
The ‘Rona has these housing market stats all skewed. The built up amount of buyers will match the built up amount of sellers. Both waiting it out so far, this spring and summer will show which one jumps first. It will be regardless of current rate creeping up. At the moment inventory is scarce and impatient buyers are paying the price.
I do not see 2009 prices even if sellers all jump in first, I do not see 2005 if Buyers all jump in first.
Real question is if rates stop creeping and start jumping then all bets are off is because the FOMO will jack it all up
“Luxury is doing well AND it’s overbuilt.”
Yes, you CAN have that.
You can have a unique $10 million single family home sell in the city and STILL have 500 $1 million plus downtown condos sitting there unsold.
They have overbuilt the luxury condo units in certain neighborhoods, including downtown.
“Wow I think most commentators on this blog were saying the same thing the past few weeks while Sabrina shouted us all down calling us bears since jobless millennials were going to magically keep the rally going.”
So “moderate sales growth” is now a bear market?
Lol.
Chicago is seeing double digit gains. It’s always year-over-year. The next few months will be easy yoy comps because of the shutdowns. By the summer, it will be harder to do.
What we’re really looking at is the multi-decade highs now. We have seen 2 months in a row with the best sales in 14+ years. Back to the housing boom years. Can that continue?
Going to be hard with this lack of inventory. Everyone wants a single family home and there are just hundreds of condos over $1 million in downtown high rises.
Doesn’t mean the housing market isn’t red hot.
Inventory is where it’s at. If they build it at an affordable price, it will get sold. Look at how quickly they are selling out the homes in Bronzeville. Look at the hotness in Portage Park, Jefferson Park, Avondale. All “middle” and “upper middle” class areas. But there simply isn’t enough inventory to meet demand.
Every asset class moves in cycles. Chicago’s housing market has been in a bear cycle since 2008. In 2020 it broke that trend and entered into a bull market.
The bull will last multiple years, as it always does.
Stop living in the past. The market has changed. But it’s sooooo common for bears to remain perma-bears for years after the market conditions have changed.
“Mr. Zandi, at Moody’s, said he wasn’t yet anxious about a looming disaster like the last housing bubble. But he says it is already worrisome that rising prices have boxed out many first-time and moderate-income home buyers, who for years to come may lose out on the benefits of locking in interest rates below 3 percent.”
I said last week the real danger here was overheating. We don’t want it to get TOO hot.
Rising mortgage rates will take care of that problem (as long as they don’t rise too much and too fast).
As I said yesterday- what is “too much”?
In the past it’s taken about 75 basis points to 1 point to really cool the Chicago market. That means 30 year rates need to approach 4% again for it to really hit.
They’re nowhere near that right now.
But this will light a fire under even more buyers. They have seen the rates move up and now they will want to buy something, anything, to lock in that low rate.
If you’ve got a property to sell, now is an excellent time to be listing it.
“Wait are you a bear now because you sound alot like me? What changed in less than two weeks Sabrina? I thought the millennials were invading and not going anywhere?”
Cooling off is not a bear market WP. Get a grip.
It’s sizzling hot this spring and that will continue. The story has changed. The largest generation in American history is getting married, having families and wants to own something. They are buying. Nothing you say is going to stop it.
“Huh? You realize the Dems control the house, senate, and Presidency right? They are going through reconciliation. I’m not sure how Republicans are “obstructing”.”
The Republican Senate obstructed the last aid package for 6 months after it passed the House which is why unemployment actually ran out for months under the Trump Administration.
That will NOT happen under the Democrats.
“You can show data on all the sold homes and the price increases since its hot hot hot……”
Sold homes have absolutely nothing to do with there being no inventory in Hyde Park.
“Sabrina – I didn’t realize you were State TV for Joe Biden and Democratic elite establishment plutocrats.”
Once again, there’s WP betting against America.
Bets against Illinois. Bets against Chicago. Bets against America.
Doom. Doom. Doom.
Wants them all to fail.
Why?
I don’t get it.
So stupid. Why would you WANT your country to suck?
By the way, everyone who has ever bet against America has lost. The bears have always LOST.
“Your response would be 180 deg different if Orange Man Bad would have done this”
Nope. Trump wanted the $2000 checks too. It was McConnell and the rest of the Republicans who didn’t want it. They don’t want the next $1400. They don’t even want the next aid package, which is the only thing that will keep large parts of the economy from going into the abyss.
“But the middle class bungalow under $300,000? Now THAT is rare. Especially move-in ready”
Renovators are fixing up bungalows all over the south side JohnnyU. You would know if you lived in the city.
They’re really doing some amazing renos. Those are selling fast.
“Mortgage interest rates are up 25 bips the past week on the 30 year. While in normal times this might not seem like much it’s an 11% almost overnight increase in interest expense.”
Bob the Bear has to show up to say something bearish.
Oh no- the mortgage rates are up to 3.1%. Oh my god. Not that.
We’ve had 75 basis point increases in mortgage rates in the last 5 years. What happened to the housing market then? Did it crash?
No?
No. It didn’t.
Higher rates WILL slow the frenzy. For sure. All depends on how high they go though. Need 75 to 1 basis points to really see a big slowdown.
Might get that by the fall. Maybe.
If we do, it means the economy is HUMMING. Means the reopen is going well, unemployment is coming down quickly, people will get pay raises as the job market tightens.
Economy could be booming by Q3 of 2021.
That’s always been bullish for housing, no matter what the mortgage rates.
Looks like I need to blog on the hot middle class housing market. Harder for me to do as I don’t have as many pictures. Hm..let me see what I can do as the weather improves.
Supposed to be 60 by next weekend.
““But the middle class bungalow under $300,000? Now THAT is rare. Especially move-in ready”
Renovators are fixing up bungalows all over the south side JohnnyU. You would know if you lived in the city.
They’re really doing some amazing renos. Those are selling fast.”
Should be easy for you to provide links
“If we do, it means the economy is HUMMING. Means the reopen is going well, unemployment is coming down quickly, people will get pay raises as the job market tightens.
Economy could be booming by Q3 of 2021.”
The UMich survey isnt as bullish as you
“The Republican Senate obstructed the last aid package for 6 months after it passed the House which is why unemployment actually ran out for months under the Trump Administration.”
The House passed a signaling bill for $3Tn which included $1Tn for State and Local that wasn’t needed as most States revenues (including Illinois) increased during the year and States like Cali had a $15Bn windfall but continued to cry poor. Further, Pelosi was more concerned in trying to bailout K-Street lobbying groups through PPP than actually helping people.
The Senate tried passing their own legislation but democrats obstructed by filibustering everything since the GOP wanted to lower extra UI benefits from $600 to $300.
Dems were literally trying to bailout every single industry, man, woman, and child regardless of their situation the last time around. It was a joke.
Further, Democrats own public polling on the HEROES Bill did not show majority support. Go look at public polling in September/October on who voters blamed it was almost evenly split between Pelosi/Trump. Feel free to keep up with the revisionist history.
https://theintercept.com/2020/06/09/heroes-act-corporate-bailout-poll/
“They don’t even want the next aid package, which is the only thing that will keep large parts of the economy from going into the abyss.”
What parts of the economy does the proposed bill help? Name them. I think both sides agree on $1400 checks, extending unemployment, sending money to hospitals and vaccine distribution. Outside of this what else is really needed? Throw in some rent relief ok.
There’s no reason to keep throwing money to the airlines or hotels. Their own trade groups keep saying that tourism isn’t going to be back to pre-covid levels until 2024 or later. So the plan is to just continue to bail these industries out in perpetuity? Why? Most of the bailout money only goes to servicing their bond holders interest anyway.
The money for schools doesn’t even get spent this year. So why is that even in the bill?
Universities keep getting money. Why? They can just hike tuition like they have always done and the government can write bigger loans to students and once the burden gets too big the government can forgive the loans. The fact that Universities continue to get no strings bailouts is ridiculous. There should be a mandatory tuition and room & Board freeze for a number of years if they take the money.
Local units of government probably need some funds as their taxing powers are limited. The majority of State Governments do not need the money as their coffers continued to grow during the pandemic.
There’s money for contract tracing. Why? We tried this last year and it failed miserably. There’s no need for this.
Public Transportation – Why haven’t their been any cost/service offsets during this time to get closer to demand or post-covid demand projections. It’s going to take many years for this industry to get back to pre-covid if it can ever do that.
Pensions – Bailing out multi-employer pensions which were doomed pre-covid. What’s the point? re-structure, take a haircut and move-on.
There’s all this money for the VA. Why? They have their own budget which got a 10% increase already for this year
This bill is chalk full of waste just like the last two. The peasants get some crumbs but the fat cats continue to feast and feast and feast.
“Bets against Illinois. Bets against Chicago. Bets against America.”
When did I ever do that? What’s with the hyperbolic rhetoric?
“We’ve had 75 basis point increases in mortgage rates in the last 5 years. What happened to the housing market then? Did it crash?
No?
No. It didn’t.
Higher rates WILL slow the frenzy. For sure. All depends on how high they go though. Need 75 to 1 basis points to really see a big slowdown.”
You still don’t understand the math nor that 75-100 bps over 5 years is quite a bit different than an 11% increase in a week.
25 bps increase when 30yrs were at 2.25-2.5% has a much more outsized impact on affordability than going from 4.5% to 4.75%.
As rates approach zero any increase in rates will have an ever larger impact on the housing market. I sure hope as hell the Fed understands this as it doesn’t seem to widely understood by most.
Regarding the luxury market…you have to separate city from suburbs and condos from SFHs. Here is some data on SFHs. They are doing OK but condos have been hurting – probably because a lot are downtown. http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2021/01/how-the-chicago-luxury-home-market-really-compares-to-the-suburbs/
“ Higher rates WILL slow the frenzy. For sure. All depends on how high they go though. Need 75 to 1 basis points to really see a big slowdown.”
You still don’t understand the math nor that 75-100 bps over 5 years is quite a bit different than an 11% increase in a week.”
While I think it will take more to hit a Big slowdown, you are correct.
What the shills can’t admit in public is that except for the truly rich, RE is a monthly payment game. Rates going up reduce the principal buyers can afford, which in turn impacts the ability of the existing home buyer to upgrade.
If rates increase > 1%, the 1200sf 2/2 owner is going to get killed. Is a 10% haircut. They’ll be more underwater than they all ready are making upgrading w/o the bank of mommy & daddy near impossible.
But buy now or be priced out for ever
“ Once again, there’s WP betting against America.
Bets against Illinois. Bets against Chicago. Bets against America.
Doom. Doom. Doom.
Wants them all to fail.
Why?
I don’t get it.
So stupid. Why would you WANT your country to suck?”
Don’t recall you being this chipper w/ Orange Man Bad
“Rates going up reduce the principal buyers can afford, which in turn impacts the ability of the existing home buyer to upgrade.”
Property taxes as well, which are also going up, up, up.
How many millennials have a bank of mommy & daddy to assist with that down payment? I know it can’t be the majority. Very few Americans have close to 100k liquid it’s almost unheard of.
When you’re looking at half million dollar 2/2s with conventional financing that’s 100k down with a 400k mortgage, which would require a household income of around 165k to be able to afford.
How many of these people buying these places have that sort of household income? Sure one six figure earner and one regular earner might get you there, but that doesn’t leave any wiggle room for the future. Guess what happens in the future to young couples? Kids.
The whole property ladder requires everything to work out perfectly for these people to not lose their ass. I see ass losing in my Magic 8 ball.
“When you’re looking at half million dollar 2/2s with conventional financing that’s 100k down with a 400k mortgage, which would require a household income of around 165k to be able to afford.
How many of these people buying these places have that sort of household income? Sure one six figure earner and one regular earner might get you there, but that doesn’t leave any wiggle room for the future. Guess what happens in the future to young couples? Kids.”
——————————–
So why are they looking at $500k as a starter home? Simply because Sabrina Z wants to blog about it doesn’t make it realty reality. Young couples with student loans (which now usually are a percentage of income for payment) and kids in the future shouldn’t be looking at places that have to work out perfectly in order to be affordable, bank of mom and dad or no.
So the entire frame of reference is wrong. Get down to $200k or $250k for a real starter home. There no excitement in blogging about old cookie cutter bungalows in boring, majority minority neighborhoods, though.
So if some snowflake loses his/her ass going for $500k to start, we’re supposed to have sympathy?
Sing and dance all you want, but Chicago doesn’t have enough doctors, big-firm lawyers, and banksters/traders to justify such a reality.
And let them lose their asses. The Magic 8 Ball is spot on.
“Property taxes as well, which are also going up, up, up.”
Yeah, but that could be offset by wage inflation
“How many millennials have a bank of mommy & daddy to assist with that down payment? I know it can’t be the majority. Very few Americans have close to 100k liquid it’s almost unheard of.
When you’re looking at half million dollar 2/2s with conventional financing that’s 100k down with a 400k mortgage, which would require a household income of around 165k to be able to afford.”
IME – For the ones looking at $4-500K places quite a few.
Generally speaking these are the worst sense of entitlement of Boomers & Millennials (Stonks only go up, etc)
“How many of these people buying these places have that sort of household income? Sure one six figure earner and one regular earner might get you there, but that doesn’t leave any wiggle room for the future. Guess what happens in the future to young couples? Kids.
The whole property ladder requires everything to work out perfectly for these people to not lose their ass. I see ass losing in my Magic 8 ball.”
YOLO and back to the Bank of Mommy & Daddy
Someones going to lose. If GenZ continues to realize that Boomers & Millennials are fucking them over, then yes those who caused this will suffer. If not the can will be kicked on down the road
“So why are they looking at $500k as a starter home? Simply because Sabrina Z wants to blog about it doesn’t make it realty reality. Young couples with student loans (which now usually are a percentage of income for payment) and kids in the future shouldn’t be looking at places that have to work out perfectly in order to be affordable, bank of mom and dad or no.”
They’ve bought into the mantra that lioke Stonks, Real Estate only goes up and Mortgages rates will always be at 2%. Shills like Sabrina only serve to encourage this mindset
“So the entire frame of reference is wrong. Get down to $200k or $250k for a real starter home. There no excitement in blogging about old cookie cutter bungalows in boring, majority minority neighborhoods, though.”
Sabrina Hates and is frightened by the poors & minorities. She wants a very white UMC city. Sure you can have a token minority like the Obamas but thats as far as she and her ilk can go
“Sing and dance all you want, but Chicago doesn’t have enough doctors, big-firm lawyers, and banksters/traders to justify such a reality.
And let them lose their asses. The Magic 8 Ball is spot on”
As log as Powell keeps the presses running OT, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But when the breaks get hit, better have an exit strategy
“Bets against Illinois. Bets against Chicago. Bets against America.”
When did I ever do that? What’s with the hyperbolic rhetoric?
Thats how the shill works. When you’ve stripped it of all logic and reason, what else are you left with?
Regarding whether or not the market is just making up for lost time or exhibiting lasting strength….there is no way to know for sure but sales during the 12 months ending in January were just above calendar year 2019 levels. I’m sure there are people still holding back from allowing people in their homes or reluctant to go into other people’s homes and, maybe, if they are looking for another city to move to they don’t want to travel just yet. So I could see the case for an extended delay in all activity. When I see the 12 month numbers solidly above 2019 levels I’ll have more confidence in the strong real estate market theory.
“How many millennials have a bank of mommy & daddy to assist with that down payment? I know it can’t be the majority.”
Certainly isn’t the majority, but it sure seems to be a statistically significant portion, at least in particular markets favored by the offspring of upper middle class to affluent boomers. When we sold our condo in ELP at the end of ’13, we sold to a 20-something guy (all cash) and the same happened in ’16 when we sold a house in Denver (30-year old guy/all cash). (In hindsight, we underpriced on both) Handful of recent SFH closings in our neighborhood that I have knowledge of (places that were purchased a year ago in the $700k range, torn down, then a new place in the $1.7 – $2 million range built and sold) also, all cash.
“ You can have a unique $10 million single family home sell in the city and STILL have 500 $1 million plus downtown condos sitting there unsold.
They have overbuilt the luxury condo units in certain neighborhoods, including downtown.”
You’re a big fan of using a N=1, as proof of your preferences
“How many millennials have a bank of mommy & daddy to assist with that down payment? I know it can’t be the majority. Very few Americans have close to 100k liquid it’s almost unheard of.”
Bob: Still living in 1995, I see.
Who puts down 20% on a first time purchase?
Very few.
Banks will still do 10% or even 5% if you have a high enough FICO score and meet all the other checklist requirements. You’ll have to pay PMI, but you don’t need the big downpayment.
And as we’ve talked about on here with Russ, who is a mortgage broker, you can even do 3% down now.
No first time buyer has needed 20% down for over 20 years now.
They’ve tightened the requirements versus what was happening in 2005-2008 though. Much more income verification now.
“How many of these people buying these places have that sort of household income? Sure one six figure earner and one regular earner might get you there, but that doesn’t leave any wiggle room for the future. Guess what happens in the future to young couples? Kids.”
A Google engineer in Chicago is making at least $125k. To start.
So, yeah, it’s not that hard for Millennials to buy a $500,000 place.
And, sorry you’re out of the loop, but this has been going on for the last decade in Chicago. Who do you think is buying all the $750,000 new build condos in Lakeview? GenXers? Boomers retiring to the city?
No. Those are ALL Millennials.
The north side of the city is extremely desirable. The top earners all want to live there. You’d better be bringing your A game, and salary, to afford it.
“25 bps increase when 30yrs were at 2.25-2.5% has a much more outsized impact on affordability than going from 4.5% to 4.75%.”
No it doesn’t Bob. Your monthly payment goes up $50. Whoopee.
“What the shills can’t admit in public is that except for the truly rich, RE is a monthly payment game.”
JU: Not just the shills don’t understand it:
“a 400k mortgage, which would require a household income of around 165k to be able to afford”
To be able to “afford” a $400k mortgage, and the ~$8k in taxes that come with it in Chicago, at 30% of gross, means an income of about $100k.
Now, would I tell anyone to buy a house that’s 5 (or more) times their income? NFW!! But that’s what’s “affordable” as a monthly payment thing with current rates.
“A Google engineer in Chicago is making at least $125k. To start.”
You’ve told us for YEARS that google’s operations in Chicago are mostly sales.
“If GenZ continues to realize that Boomers & Millennials are fucking them over, then yes those who caused this will suffer.”
Nah, GenX will be the ones who get fucked. Same as it ever was.
“The north side of the city is extremely desirable. The top earners all want to live there. You’d better be bringing your A game, and salary, to afford it.”
Why dont you just shout out “Minorities need not apply”?
I thought the Southside was HAWT ™? Bronzeville being the new home to $750k-$1MM properties
“Nah, GenX will be the ones who get fucked. Same as it ever was.”
Can Boomers start lining up for Carrousel?
“I thought the Southside was HAWT ™? Bronzeville being the new home to $750k-$1MM properties”
Don’t forget about the Hot condo market in Hyde Park and Kenwood. I guess all the SalesForce Engineers are infiltrating this market.
“As rates approach zero any increase in rates will have an ever larger impact on the housing market. I sure hope as hell the Fed understands this as it doesn’t seem to widely understood by most.”
Politico is starting to figure out this point. It’s not just the housing market it’s every financial/hard asset market.
So long as you can pile on debt with <2% debt in the Bank market or <3% in the housing market asset prices naturally inflate as the borrowed money is effectively "free" when you get 5% – 6% market returns and dividend yields of 1.5% – 2% or the 90% Nasdaq returns since the March Covid low.
There's literally no reason to price in risk in the market. Just keep leveraging. If something goes haywire the FED will jump in to save the day and "stabilize" the market. I was already seeing last week that the ECB was "monitoring" the rates market. There were Asset Managers already wondering if the FED will bring back QE.
The market has been completely addicted to stimulus for 10+ years and it's now expected that at any slight blip in the market that the FED will ride up and save the day. What an efficient market. Talk about price discovery and valuation.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/01/bidens-market-bubbles-economic-risk-471835
““What the shills can’t admit in public is that except for the truly rich, RE is a monthly payment game.”
Still can’t explain San Francisco CA. Tiny little city of 800,000, nowhere near as many Wall St. jobs as NYC (or even Chicago) not even close, tiny and less dynamic than LA, and Silicon Valley Big Tech jobs are 40 miles away in San Jose/Palo Alto area. So where is all the monthly income coming from in San Fran to support all the $3.0+ million properties there? Even in a far away tucked away place like Ross, CA the houses are now $6.0+ million, and how many execs make that kind of monthly income up in Marin? (which again is no LA County)
“So where is all the monthly income coming from in San Fran to support all the $3.0+ million properties there?”
Nothing new gets built so although everything costs $1MM+ the supply of homes remains the same – limited sellers but more buyers pushing prices up as population was growing (until this past year).
When there is a market event home prices in San Fran take a larger hit initially – DotCom bust, 08 and now with Covid.
House prices quickly shoot up though as San Fran has only made 1,800 homes per year for the past 20 – 30 years when economists state 5,000 needs to be build to keep up with demand.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/Yes-the-laws-of-supply-and-demand-still-apply-in-15817844.php
Just on queue the FED may look to bring back operation twist to keep long-term rates low. The housing rally can keep going so long as the FED will continue to step in and manipulate the market. Unbelievable.
I wonder what SIFI and/or hedge fund called the FED since after getting routed last week being on the wrong side of the bond trade. “Our company cannot ever lose money on our outsized risks come fix this.” is what I imagine how this call went.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/fed-policy-changes-could-be-coming-in-response-to-bond-market-turmoil-economists-say.html
“place like Ross, CA the houses are now $6.0+ million”
That’s only like 3x income for a couple of retired SQ prison guards, no?
Or am I mixing them up with Vallejo firemen?
“So where is all the monthly income coming from in San Fran to support all the $3.0+ million properties there?”
1) the list of SF area companies is long. I refuse to link to Wikipedia but you can look it up yourself.
2) residents of San Francisco commute! Google has/had it’s own buses with wifi for pickup/dropoff
3) VC money sloshes around that place like crazy. Too much money chasing too little housing is a recipe for high rents.
4) Watch a couple of house hunters and you’ll realize there are lots of people with exercised stock options, family money or super high incomes in SF;
4) Lax lending on the bottom of the market leads to high prices at the top. The FHA limit for a one-unit living arrangement is $822,375! By comparison, Chicago is less than half of that at $379,500.
5) We’re all subprime now.
why not link to wikipedia? not a troll attempt. honestly want to know if there is bad behavior or something…
“A Google engineer in Chicago is making at least $125k. To start.”
No. They are not. That’s market rate for someone with ~5yr experience.
Source: am software engineer in Chicago (not for google)
“Watch a couple of house hunters and you’ll realize there are lots of people with exercised stock options, family money or super high incomes in SF”
No different in Chicago.
McDonalds, Boeing, GrubHub, Google, Facebook, Salesforce, Morningstar, CME, CBOE, Ulta all give out stock options to Chicago-area employees.
And that’s just off the top of my head. There are dozens of others.
Lots of money in Chicago due to the stock market. Just think of the all the CME millionaires.
“The housing rally can keep going so long as the FED will continue to step in and manipulate the market.”
The Fed was the last factor that contributed to the rally.
First was demographics mixed with the potency of the pandemic which made people re-evaluate where they were living and why. Throw the lowest rates ever, which made buying cheaper than renting, and you have a bull housing market.
It will last for several years, regardless of what the Fed does.
“Tiny little city of 800,000, nowhere near as many Wall St. jobs as NYC (or even Chicago) not even close, tiny and less dynamic than LA, and Silicon Valley Big Tech jobs are 40 miles away in San Jose/Palo Alto area.”
I guess we know from these comments that HH has never lived in the Bay Area. He doesn’t live in Chicago either. Wonder where nirvana is for him?
Anyway- the tech firms have all moved up to San Francisco a decade ago.
Facebook has a huge San Francisco office. Salesforce is in San Francisco. Twitter. Square.
Millennials didn’t want to be down the Peninsula in the last decade and running buses back and forth wasting time and money was dumb. Might as well open an office in the city where they are living so they did.
This is also what led to all the regional offices by those same firms across the major cities in the US.
And lack of housing in the Bay Area is what led to HQ2s by several companies.
Chicago was Facebook’s second office outside of the Bay Area. It’s pretty massive.
Before the pandemic hit, Google was leasing yet more space in Fulton Market, having already run out of the entire building it only recently leased. Not sure what will happen to that but we’ll find out later this year when many return to their offices (or don’t.)
But they have several thousand workers in Chicago now- including many engineers.
Companies can save a ton of money and get better access to talent by leaving the Bay Area.
“You’ve told us for YEARS that google’s operations in Chicago are mostly sales.”
Yep. 5 years ago they only had sales here. Not anymore anon(tfo).
Catch up.
The city moves fast.
“The plan is for Chicago to be the largest engineering organization outside of our headquarters in Silicon Valley,” says James Megquier, who oversees Chronicle’s engineering team in Chicago and spent nearly a dozen years as a software engineer at Google, which already employs several hundred engineers among a workforce here that now tops 1,000. “They’re confident in the talent here.”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/john-pletz-technology/why-chicago-starting-look-real-tech-town
“place like Ross, CA the houses are now $6.0+ million”
Lots of people in Marin County have lived there for 30+ years. Buy low, sell high.
I know a legal secretary who bought in Mill Valley in the 1980s. We used to laugh about it because her house was well over $2 million because of its location.
But this is also why the Bay Area has changed for the worst. Today, the legal secretary can’t buy anything nor can she even rent an apartment. The wealth disparity is insane now.
Even doctors and lawyers are relatively poor there. Stanford U Hospital has had trouble recruiting doctors in the past.
“ First was demographics mixed with the potency of the pandemic which made people re-evaluate where they were living and why. Throw the lowest rates ever, which made buying cheaper than renting, and you have a bull housing market.
It will last for several years, regardless of what the Fed does.”
Nostradumbass strikes again
Mortgage rates over 3%
“ The spike in mortgage rates has already negative consequences. U.S. home loan purchase applications fell for the third straight week, reaching a 9-month low. Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data showed that the purchase index decreased by 11.6 percent (largest drop since April 2020) in week ended February 19, 2021 (v -6.1 percent in the week prior). The index of purchase applications has fallen in four of the last five weeks and is down 23.9 percent from mid-January.”
That’s HAWT ™
https://www.christophe-barraud.com/en/u-s-30-year-mortgage-rates-are-no-longer-below-3
“ No. They are not. That’s market rate for someone with ~5yr experience.
Source: am software engineer in Chicago (not for google)”
LOL
Any chance Sabrina apologizes for being rude and incorrect?
chichow: The co-founder of Wikipedia, Larry Sanger (no longer affiliated with the project), says that Wikipedia is no longer an objective or reliable source of information. He said this just a week or two ago. Wikipedia’s former reputation remains but nearly all articles have been scrubbed clean for historical and factual revision by the small, tight knit group of editors who are largely responsible for updating the site. It’s another former reliable institution that’s been destroyed in our current Orwellian era of disinformation.
“all the CME millionaires”
That was 20 YEARS AGO!!
Can you cite to something from this generation??
“McDonalds, Boeing, GrubHub, Google, Facebook, Salesforce, Morningstar, CME, CBOE, Ulta all give out stock options to Chicago-area employees”
Stock options are a little different when the company is already public vs. the start-up and incubators that were founded in and around San Fran over the past 15 years that went public. Much more lucrative than working at McDonalds and getting a 5% return + ~2% dividends.
How many employees were in located in Chicago pre-ipo for FB, Goog, CRM, and Ulta?
Oh and Grubhub traded at $135 in 2018 currently $64. Groupon has been even worse with the amount of reverse stock splits they have had to stay afloat. Cars.Com awful IPO at $26 was down to $5 beginning of Covid – $15 now.
There’s alot more old money sloshing around Chicago then new compared to what’s happened in San Fran since the turn of the millennium.
“Wikipedia is no longer an objective or reliable source of information”
Um, Wikipedia was NEVER “an objecting or reliable source of information”.
Did anyone ever think it was??
“Stock options are a little different when the company is already public vs. the start-up and incubators that were founded in and around San Fran over the past 15 years that went public.”
Nope.
Not if you’re CEO or high up the chain. Millions of grants given out.
When do you think Grubhub went public?
And, by the way, I once went out on a date with a Morningstar Millionaire. This was before I met my husband so, yeah, it was a long time ago. He was like employee number 20. He wasn’t working. Was living off the money and it wasn’t anything even close to what others are getting at places like Grubhub years later. Lol.
And, sure, Chicago doesn’t have nearly the number of stock market millionaires that are concentrated in a small zone in the Bay Area.
Thank goodness.
It’s really destructive to the city. The Bay Area is a messed up place with all those people worth $20 million living on the Peninsula and then the others who can’t even afford to rent an apartment there because they are teachers or nurses.
But Chicago’s economy is much more diverse.
And, WP, the head guy at Groupon just bought like a $30 million in Montecito. Plenty of money was made at Groupon.
Also wealthy people getting stock options at United, GATX, John Bean, Ingredion, and on and on.
All making millions.
Heck, McDonald’s employees walk out of there with a million dollars if they’re there 20 years and the stock is at new highs, as it is.
CME Group employees were there at the IP WP. Tons of millionaires created from that IP. All Chicago-grown.
Lots of money sloshing around.
And then include Citadel, Ariel Investments and all the other financial firms.
You are insane to think Chicago doesn’t have plenty of firepower.
“That was 20 YEARS AGO!!”
No different than the major bay area money like Google etc. Still making millionaires all these years later.
“Any chance Sabrina apologizes for being rude and incorrect?”
Um…I never said anything about this comment.
You are rude when someone says: “this is west loop” and the other person says “you don’t know what you’re talking about and are a shill.”
When it is CLEARLY the West Loop and the guy lives there. (or West Loop Gate- but no one uses that except the poster whose very NAME was West Loop Gater.)
He’s just being an asshole, and is a rude one at that.
He was bullying West Loop Gater.
No need to attack someone who is right who actually lives there.
I haven’t said anything about this software engineer comment. So I’m not being rude, nor incorrect.
Get a life JohnnyU. It’s getting old now.
“That’s HAWT ™”
No, it’s smart.
Who is dumb enough to apply for a mortgage AFTER the rates spike?
You don’t.
If you haven’t locked in yet, you move to the sidelines and wait. They may go down again. You hope.
Yawn.
The market is sizzling hot. I can’t even find anything to crib about. Everything I want to cover keeps going under contract within a few days.
But that’s the spring market with record low inventory. Lots of people are looking this spring, not surprisingly.
That’s how it’s going to be the next several years.
“If you haven’t locked in yet, you move to the sidelines and wait. They may go down again. You hope.“
“But that’s the spring market with record low inventory. Lots of people are looking this spring, not surprisingly.
That’s how it’s going to be the next several years.“
Can someone translate this shill-speak?
I don’t get how people will be on the sidelines due to rate increases, yet there will be lot of people looking?
I thought that rates didn’t have anything to do with a HAWT Market ™ ?
“ Um…I never said anything about this comment.”
You did and you should apologize for being rude and incorrect
“Everything I want to cover keeps going under contract within a few days. ”
————————
Clue us in, please, on your criteria for things you “want to cover.”
Like I said, you might want to showcase each of the 77 communities with a week (the boring bungalow belt ones can be two or even three in a week) and give people a glimpse of diversity.
“Not if you’re CEO or high up the chain. Millions of grants given out.”
Nope. Go look at the Groupon IPO. It was a disaster. Literally one of the worst IPO’s in the history of IPO’s. The CEO and two Co-Founders sold their shares in the weeks and months prior to the IPO through final late-stage funding rounds. The CEO got rich along with early stage backers (probably not Chicago related) and the other two co-founders got a couple million. That’s it.
The stock price fell 85% in the first year it went public. How awesome would that have been to be an employee and been granted shares that don’t vest for multiple years or maybe there was an employee fund where employees through their paychecks away buying discounted IPO shares from the Banksters. By cashing out pre-ipo they literally made the company insolvent and had to amend their S-3 filings showing negative equity.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/columnist/2015/10/07/groupon-and-zynga-were-worst-big-internet-ipos/73507732/
With most if not all of software engineering and other tech jobs being done remotely going forward, hoards of tech folks are moving to Florida or Texas to avoid the CA and NY income taxes. It’s the same reason why I’m leaving Chicago for Florida or Texas this summer. My company doesn’t care where I work from since it’s all done from home, so there is no point in paying rent in a closed city with crappy weather and high crime.
“And then include Citadel, Ariel Investments and all the other financial firms.”
Does Ken Griffin even live here anymore since his divorce? He’s bought houses in London, New York, Palm Beach, and Colorado. Citadel moved their operational headquarters to New York a few years back when they were contemplating a corporate move. He set-up a satellite office in Palm Beach at the beginning of the pandemic which will probably become their headquarters at somepoint with all the NY financers moving down to south beach. The company has 1,400 employees. I’m not sure how many are actually in Chicago these days.
Ariel Investments has 100 employees after 37 years in business. Wow. Crazy. $14Bn AUM investing in mutual funds…. Asset Managers have been merging for years given the fee pressure they have been facing. No one pays for active mutual fund managers when there’s ETF’s. Unless they scale up or diversify into privates (unlikely) they will likely be a glorified family office in a decade or so managing a few dozen/hundred portfolios of legacy clients. So there’s probably 5 millionaires and the rest generally make $100K – $250K with little growth potential. Not a bad living if you can get your foot in the door but nothing to go crazy over.
You know the companies that actually mint millionaires. In the Bay Area 6 companies go public and 6,000+ millionaires are created. That’s insane. That’s not just the C-Suite and early VC/PE investors getting in either. That’s all of the senior and middle managers, along with the high performing worker bees that are being groomed to run the next $10Bn+ plus idea after they create the infrastructure.
Back when Google, Facebook and others went public, these companies created more billionaires going public individually than all of Chicago’s IPO’s combined created millionaires. Chicago’s IPO’s have only made the founder and maybe 3 – 4 C-Suite/Co-Founder people rich plus the LP’s and Managers of the early stage (and some late stage) VC/PE money which probably doesn’t do much for Chicago.
And just think how well alot of these companies performed over the past decade. The entry level person that got to buy discounted shares through an employee stock plan could throw 10% – 15% of the $100K+ salary and in 5 years be millionaires themselves. Unbelievable.
But yes getting in the employee stock plan of McDonalds at 22 buying discounted shares of ~5% of your paycheck (not enough growth to justify more) with the starting $60K – $70K salary and working your way up you can become a millionaire in your 40’s or 50’s innovating happy meals, creating a cheap version of a Popeyes chicken sandwich, and marketing shamrock shakes annually. What a life.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bizcarson/2019/03/19/ipos-from-uber-airbnb-pinterest-and-lyft-could-create-a-230-billion-windfall-and-6000-new-millionaires/?sh=6a6634075cf6
“C lue us in, please, on your criteria for things you “want to cover”
The Groupon folks with stock options are buying up all the SShore Bungalows
“But yes getting in the employee stock plan of McDonalds at 22 buying discounted shares of ~5% of your paycheck (not enough growth to justify more) with the starting $60K – $70K salary and working your way up you can become a millionaire in your 40’s or 50’s innovating happy meals, creating a cheap version of a Popeyes chicken sandwich, and marketing shamrock shakes annually. What a life.”
You have quite the survivorship bias from your comparison. For every dot-com that is wildly successful I’d bet there are several that never come to fruition. Also these dot-coms generally only hire those with a tech savvy that are at the top of their game, and the hours are grueling I’ve heard. People in this lifestyle work at multiple ones over the years hoping eventually one hits, some never do. Do you know what they’re left with from a bunch of failed dot coms in their life? Nothing. No 401k, meager benefits & options that became worthless.
Sorry I’d rather be in my 40s & 50s and have something quantifiably achieved in my life by that point, than to have gambled my life away on the dot com roulette wheel. Lots of bitter vets from the Bay Area I’m guessing who never struck gold and have dick to show for all those years of toiling away.
I would actually admire someone more who worked at McDs for decades on end than those chasing the latest fad in life. And if people like you and your social circle look down on such people vs the gamblers, well I tend to think you guys are idealistic douchebags overconfident in your ability level or at the least not understanding the role luck plays.
They say you’ve got to play to win but the opportunity cost of playing the dot come gamble is foregoing a decent life to provide for one’s family. Maybe photos from that life won’t get as many likes on social media or accolades from those who never work either and think the dot com route is sexy, but do those people’s opinion’s really matter? No, not really.
“4) Lax lending on the bottom of the market leads to high prices at the top. The FHA limit for a one-unit living arrangement is $822,375! By comparison, Chicago is less than half of that at $379,500.”
Conforming loans at Fannie & Freddie are now up to $541,250 with higher cost areas also at $822,375.
Now higher rates are here and those that stretched at the margin to buy as much house as they can afford, which are the ones that determine RE pricing as it is set at the margin, are now constrained moreso than they were mere weeks ago.
With the Greater Fool theory the amount of leverage determines how much the fools can impact the market. For the stock market they’re only supposed to be able to borrow one dollar for every dollar they bring to the table. For FHA loans they can borrow thirty-two dollars for every dollar they can bring to the table.
Gamestop? You ain’t seen nothing yet.
“I would actually admire someone more who worked at McDs for decades on end than those chasing the latest fad in life. And if people like you and your social circle look down on such people vs the gamblers”
I was not trying to come off as looking down. Just comparing. You can also apply “gamblers” at a tech-start-up the same as the newest burger/fast food/fast casual joint the same for every new Finance start-up.
For every McDonalds or Chipotle there’s 100 Quizno’s and for every Quizno’s there’s 1000’s of neighborhood joints that didn’t make it past 2 years. The time and capital sunk is the same producing similar outcomes for the founders and its employees.
When using the example of McDs I was referring to someone who starts in a corporate job at an established company. Restaurateurs are a whole other breed entirely who obviously do it because they love what they do because I can’t imagine that career path for any sort of material rewards.
McDs franchisees obviously different than corp or regular restaurateurs as the barrier to entry is quite high but McDs does provide research, training & support.
Bay Area is insane due to the tech bubble. If a SFH is 5MM and you can afford it, instead of buying that house even with a mortgage you should be asking yourself what else you could do with that sort of cash and I can think of a million better things.
“I’m having a hard time finding anything to crib about down there. Little inventory.”
Sorry but I can’t remember what you said last time I brought this up. There are plenty of interesting properties on the market that aren’t selling.
“I haven’t said anything about this software engineer comment. So I’m not being rude, nor incorrect.”
Not rude, but definitely incorrect.
“For every dot-com that is wildly successful I’d bet there are several that never come to fruition. Also these dot-coms generally only hire those with a tech savvy that are at the top of their game, and the hours are grueling I’ve heard. People in this lifestyle work at multiple ones over the years hoping eventually one hits, some never do. Do you know what they’re left with from a bunch of failed dot coms in their life? Nothing. No 401k, meager benefits & options that became worthless.”
I’m thinking of my daughter’s friends. So you graduate college and move to the bay area at 22. You try several startups until you are 30. I hear about the successful ones. If you go to an established startup like Uber it’s pretty easy to get a $1 MM+ payout on top of your salary and salaries are really good out there. She’s had friends with multi-million dollar payouts and one that will probably be in the hundreds of millions. If by the time you’re 30 you don’t strike it rich then you settle down with a more established company and just make a really, really good salary.
Chicago may not have the billionaire-maker big name companies that go public or make international headlines with their acquisitions, but it does have hundreds or thousands of smaller successful companies that generate smaller piles of money for a lot of people.
Here’s a good recent example: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ccc-information-services-to-go-public-in-6-5-billion-spac-merger-11612353600
All of their employees are going to get checks when that acquisition closes. Many of those checks will be 6 figures. If a hand full of smart CCC employees have a business idea, those checks might be enough seed money to give a startup a shot.
Another example: I know of several companies spawned after Braintree was acquired by Paypal.
Point being, success breeds success and a company doesn’t have make millionaires to be considered a success and make a huge group of people large piles of money.
“She’s had friends with multi-million dollar payouts and one that will probably be in the hundreds of millions.”
Amazing.
It’s so easy to get rich in 2021. All you have to do is work in the Bay Area.
Unless you’re a teacher, nurse, doctor, lawyer, fireman, police man, a Starbucks barista, a painter, an architect. Gosh, unless you do anything except work in “tech.”
This is why San Francisco sucks so bad now. The city has been warped by the power of the tech money so that artists, musicians, middle class people who want to do something else can’t make it there.
Ugh.
“Not rude, but definitely incorrect.”
I never said anything about software engineers Fred. So I don’t know how it could be “incorrect.” I said a starting Google engineer gets $125,000. Never said they were “software” or anything else.
“There are plenty of interesting properties on the market that aren’t selling.”
Yawn. All the million dollar properties are sitting there unsold.
Can’t find anything interesting.
Everything else is selling right away.
“Now higher rates are here and those that stretched at the margin to buy as much house as they can afford, which are the ones that determine RE pricing as it is set at the margin, are now constrained moreso than they were mere weeks ago.”
Bob, you haven’t bought a house in a LONG time.
The mortgage brokers pretty much don’t let you “stretch” anymore. There was legislation passed after the housing bubble disaster. Gasp. And yes, it actually worked. The standards are quite tight.
The group of homeowners who have bought in the last 10 years are among the most qualified home buyers ever.
That doesn’t mean some won’t get in distress and go into foreclosure. But most have some form of equity, which can save you from a troubling situation.
This whole “everyone is buying much too high” is just wrong.
Not to mention that the personal savings rate has spiked into double digits in the last year for the first time in like 30 years which is only going to make this group of home buyers even more stable.
So many people living in the past- as if it’s 2005.
It’s not.
Multi-year bull market is here.
About time.
“Does Ken Griffin even live here anymore since his divorce?”
Yes, WP.
If you’ve read this blog, we’ve covered his various properties in Chicago extensively.
You’re going to argue that there isn’t any money in Chicago?
Okay. Rock on. $9 million single family home just closed in Lincoln Park last Sunday. The second $9 million+ home to sell this year. Only 2 sold all last year in the city so we’ve already hit the high and it’s only early March.
But there’s no money here. None at all.
And for McDonald’s: I’m not talking about the people working in the restaurants WP. There’s this little thing called “McDonald’s Global Headquarters” in the West Loop that has quite a few employees who all get stock awards in the thousands of dollars- every year. Just like they do at Morningstar, Boeing, Abbott Labs, Allstate and on and on.
But you go on saying there’s no money in Chicago.
Don’t stop being you WP.
“With most if not all of software engineering and other tech jobs being done remotely going forward, hoards of tech folks are moving to Florida or Texas to avoid the CA and NY income taxes. It’s the same reason why I’m leaving Chicago for Florida or Texas this summer.”
Rock on Mike HG.
No one knows what’s going to happen on the reopen.
At Salesforce, they surveyed their 54,000 employees and 50% said they wanted to work from home permanently but 80% said they wanted some contact with the office and would like to work at the office some days out of the week.
So, we’ll see what happens.
But my view is that the superstar cities will continue to be the superstar cities after this is over.
The country is big. No reason to stay in a city or state that you don’t like. Get out there and live your dream.
“Go look at the Groupon IPO. It was a disaster.”
The founder dude is mega-rich. Guess it worked out for him.
Here’s what he’s doing now:
https://www.dirt.com/moguls/tech/eric-lefkofsky-house-montecito-1203360489/
“Like I said, you might want to showcase each of the 77 communities with a week (the boring bungalow belt ones can be two or even three in a week) and give people a glimpse of diversity.”
I’ve covered tons of different communities on this blog but every time I go out of the GreenZone, people get bored and complain.
They really don’t want to see a bungalow in McKinley Park, even if it’s lovely.
“I don’t get how people will be on the sidelines due to rate increases, yet there will be lot of people looking?”
I’ll spell it out for you JohnnyU:
1. Those who don’t have mortgages locked in yet, will wait on the sidelines to see if rates go back down. But they weren’t seriously looking yet anyway. Or they would have already done #2 (see below)
2. Everyone else already locked in and has already been looking to buy a house for the past 4 weeks.
It’s a hot spring market. Already. But inventory is WAY too low. Going to be multiple offers on prime properties.
I was going to crib on this interesting 1000 N Lake Shore Plaza unit but, alas, it has already gone contingent before I could get to it.
That’s going to be common this year.
You have to move fast when new properties come on the market.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1000-N-Lake-Shore-Dr-60611/unit-3A/home/14121753
“1. Those who don’t have mortgages locked in yet, will wait on the sidelines to see if rates go back down. But they weren’t seriously looking yet anyway. Or they would have already done #2 (see below)
2. Everyone else already locked in and has already been looking to buy a house for the past 4 weeks.”
Again, you’ve said rates wouldn’t impact sales, only supply. So obviously you were wrong.
So how many people are in 1 Vs 2? If rates don’t go down what happens to the HAWT Market ™? Do they create a lack of demand (another market force you willfully ignore) or do the listen to the Shills siren song and buy now or be priced out for ever
“It’s a hot spring market. Already. But inventory is WAY too low. Going to be multiple offers on prime properties.”
Where’s the appreciation?
“ I was going to crib on this interesting 1000 N Lake Shore Plaza unit but, alas, it has already gone contingent before I could get to it.
That’s going to be common this year.
You have to move fast when new properties come on the market.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1000-N-Lake-Shore-Dr-60611/unit-3A/home/14121753”
Can you stop lying for once in your life?
For fucks sake they’ve been trying to sell since July you dolt
They started out asking $650k and we’re willing to rent for $3500. Dropped the ask to $615, which may mean they took less. Oh yeah they bought for $601k.
In what world does selling or renting for a loss make a HAWT market ™?
I hope you aren’t in a position to offer financial advise to anyone and anyone you do offer has the intelligence to run away
“That doesn’t mean some won’t get in distress and go into foreclosure. But most have some form of equity, which can save you from a troubling situation.”
I don’t know where you’re getting your information but FHA loans don’t have any meaningful equity. And I’d be willing to bet most first time homeowners don’t have 20% down.
The only people with equity are those who have owned for a long time and made payments combined with rising property values. This doesn’t apply to first time homeowners and as the bottom level of the housing market hits distress this will eventually spread to the rest of the market except for the high-end.
“1. Those who don’t have mortgages locked in yet, will wait on the sidelines to see if rates go back down. But they weren’t seriously looking yet anyway. Or they would have already done #2 (see below)
2. Everyone else already locked in and has already been looking to buy a house for the past 4 weeks.”
You just made the bear case for the market for me. Thank you for saving me the keystrokes. Yes mortgage rates are going to go back down to 2.5% on a 30-year. Sure.
““Does Ken Griffin even live here anymore since his divorce?”
Yes, WP.
If you’ve read this blog, we’ve covered his various properties in Chicago extensively.”
Having a property (ies) here doesnt mean he’s a resident – big difference
“Okay. Rock on. $9 million single family home just closed in Lincoln Park last Sunday. The second $9 million+ home to sell this year. Only 2 sold all last year in the city so we’ve already hit the high and it’s only early March.”
Wow up to a N=2
“You’re going to argue that there isn’t any money in Chicago?”
When did I say that? I said there is alot of old money when comparing to actual young, hot and happening areas around the country over the past 10 years.
Historically, Chicago was head and shoulders above the rest of the flyovers. That’s shifted. You are seeing people touch on it on this blog. Excluding the main coastal cities where do people want to invent, invest, work, and live – It’s Austin, Denver, Florida is becoming more than a retirement or vacation place, then people think Chicago; but Nashville, North Carolina, Phoenix are quickly catching up as well.
Further, you look at the Midwest – Minneapolis and Columbus have made strides (still far behind) and Milwaukee could be interesting over the next decade or two for young people compared to Chicago.
If Chicago can continue getting satellite offices of the major tech companies, the investments in life sciences payoff, and hopefully a play is made on the EV front we will continue to be head and shoulders among midwest cities for the next generation or two and maybe stave off the breakneck competition with southeast and southwest cities (Austin and Denver may have us already though).
Chicago is still known for the old guard of Unions, Lawyers, and Bankers. However, if you want to do Finance/Banking/PE/VC Chicago is not top 3 on your list in the US. The only renown flagship is Citadel and their long-term plans in Chicago are murky. There’s no affinity between young people and unions unless you are a teacher. Law Firms can stay relevant especially if Chicago continues to get tech talent, life-sciences, and build-out on EV companies.
Chicago has constantly hit doubles and here and there a few triples but rarely a home run over the past decade or two. We are at a crossroad of whether the triples will continue to happen.
“And for McDonald’s: I’m not talking about the people working in the restaurants WP. There’s this little thing called “McDonald’s Global Headquarters” in the West Loop that has quite a few employees”
Before the global headquarters was created the start-up and build-out of the company needed to take place which is what I was comparing to. You don’t have corporate build-outs until you have a product/prototype and ability to scale. No different than a tech start-up or Finance start-up.
Chipotle had 16 restaurants in 1998 I don’t think people thought stock options and 500+ stores would happen by 2006 when they did their IPO. It might have been a goal, vision or dream but plenty of start-ups do as well and struggle to get off the ground, properly scale, continue innovation, recognize competitors, and understand how consumer habits change to achieve compound growth.
The point – McDonalds isn’t doubling its headcount and footprint. It’s a sleepy, mature business where with the right leadership will hit singles and doubles and 5% compound growth can continue. There is nothing wrong with that and it’s headquarters are a solid anchor for Chicago.
“Chicago may not have the billionaire-maker big name companies that go public or make international headlines with their acquisitions, but it does have hundreds or thousands of smaller successful companies that generate smaller piles of money for a lot of people”
100% agree with you. This is my point. Hopefully Chicago can continue hitting doubles and occasional triples. There’s just alot more competition for the city compared to 10 – 20 years ago. It will be interesting to watch especially with some of the obvious headwinds we face that other cities don’t.
“Just like they do at Morningstar, Boeing, Abbott Labs, Allstate and on and on.”
Allstate – Will they be able to innovate and keep up over the next 10 – 20 years or does FinTech/Esurance companies eat their lunch. Are they ahead of the curve in underwriting new risks related to solar panels, wind turbines, cyber, EV’s, and global warming? Hopefully their not too concentrated in homeowners policies in certain areas of the country and can seamlessly transition off combustible engine auto underwriting in the next 10 – 15 years.
Boeing – Has gotten clobbered for how many years now their own doing. Now Covid happens and business travel never gets back to where it was. Far less demand for dreamliners and 787’s. Not much growth unless they partner up, invest, and innovate to have EV Planes. If not, it will be a sleepy legacy business ala IBM but with insane capital expenses to maintain being sleepy.
Abbott Labs – has alot of continued opportunity especially with Covid and life-sciences build-outs.
Morningstar – Looks pretty solid. Should continue.
“Okay. Rock on. $9 million single family home just closed in Lincoln Park last Sunday. The second $9 million+ home to sell this year. Only 2 sold all last year in the city so we’ve already hit the high and it’s only early March.”
For a city that’s “global” that’s pretty pathetic. Denver had $9MM SFH sales in 2020. I imagine plenty of other cities/metros that have half or less the population of Chicago saw $9MM home sales.
“Allstate – Will they be able to innovate and keep up over the next 10 – 20 years or does FinTech/Esurance companies eat their lunch. Are they ahead of the curve in underwriting new risks related to solar panels, wind turbines, cyber, EV’s, and global warming? Hopefully their not too concentrated in homeowners policies in certain areas of the country and can seamlessly transition off combustible engine auto underwriting in the next 10 – 15 years. ”
Allstate is all marketing and no coverage or payment. Those expensive commercials and low premiums result in subpar coverage and awful payments to claimants.
Allstate – Will they be able to innovate and keep up over the next 10 – 20 years or does FinTech/Esurance companies eat their lunch.
I don’t necessarily disagree with the bulk of this assessment, but should note that Allstate owns esurance.
“This whole “everyone is buying much too high” is just wrong.”
No, it’s not.
What happens to them if mortgages rates are 7% when they want to sell? Don’t presume that incomes will also be inflating to keep pace.
$500k house @3%, 80% mortgage = $1686/mo
$1686/mo @7%, 80% mortgage = $316,750 house
That’s a 36% loss, on their (likely) largest investment. Or, more likely, a 100% loss on their down payment + principal payments.
“I don’t necessarily disagree with the bulk of this assessment, but should note that Allstate owns esurance.”
Esurance was a branding strategy that they dropped last year after losing money on it every year since acquiring it in 2011. I saw Geico took over as the #1 in the US in 2020 over State Farm and Allstate dropped to #4 from #2 with Geico passing them. I’m assuming the ones taking market share have a good online presence/brand and are investing in datatech, fintech, smart-contracts, and other automated servicing.
From the article: “When asked if there is still a need for agents, Wilson said, “There absolutely is….. Ted Paris, the executive director of the National Association of Professional Allstate Agents, said the company’s announcement Thursday is seen as a good sign among agents because they had to compete with Esurance and the other Allstate brands.”
What millennial and Zoomer wants to deal with an insurance agent for home & auto? Also, the corporate strategy by Allstate is to limit choices to the old and legacy practices? Not a good sign.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-allstate-consolidating-esurance-business-20191219-ye6uicu44fekfm3mxs4s6cqvie-story.html
“Denver had $9MM SFH sales in 2020.”
In the City of Denver? Gotta compare apples, and not suburbs.
Further, Allstate lost auto-insurance customers at fastest clip since 2001 in 2020 after making growth and market share a top priority.
“the company intends to compete hard in sales over the Internet and phone, as well as through independent agents. Most of the company’s business continues to come through its army of agents selling only the Allstate brand.”
“Allstate’s 78.2 percent renewal ratio in the fourth quarter was its worst quarterly attrition in at least eight years.”
“And it eliminated the Esurance brand, which sold car insurance online and over the phone, instead moving that business into the Allstate brand and pricing policies sold directly at 7 percent less than what drivers get when they buy from an Allstate agent.
That makes 2021 a put-up-or-shut-up year on transformative growth.”
Not a good sign of a company keeping up with the times. “Transformative growth” is corporate speak when its year 3 of “transformation” but no growth or rotation.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/insurance/allstate-losing-auto-insurance-customers-fastest-clip-nearly-two-decades
“No, it’s not.
What happens to them if mortgages rates are 7% when they want to sell? Don’t presume that incomes will also be inflating to keep pace.
$500k house @3%, 80% mortgage = $1686/mo
$1686/mo @7%, 80% mortgage = $316,750 house
”
This is the turd in the punchbowl that Shills never acknowledge. Couple w/o kids buy a 1300sf 2Br condo in at 3% because real estate and stonks only go up
3-5 years later they want to start a family and buy a TH or SFH, except rates have crept up and the corresponding value has dropped in line with rates. Oh sorry you listened to some shill and you have negative equity. Your best case scenario is running in place on a treadmill for the rest of your life
“Allstate is all marketing and no coverage or payment. Those expensive commercials and low premiums result in subpar coverage and awful payments to claimants.”
I am convinced that the only Allstate policy holders are high risk or agent family members. Allstate sucks ass
Their claims people and adjusters are the absolute worst.
“I know my client hit your parked car but we’re only going to cover 90% and we’re only going to authorize the lowest quality or used parts for the repair to your 9Mo vehicle. Oh and can I interest you in a Variable Annuity product?
““I know my client hit your parked car but we’re only going to cover 90% and we’re only going to authorize the lowest quality or used parts for the repair to your 9Mo vehicle. Oh and can I interest you in a Variable Annuity product?”
And that’s the response you get after 9 months of fighting with them. From my experience, the employees are well paid, but seasoned and bitter, and trained to view every claim as fraudulent, inflated, bogus or within some exclusion.
As for being based in Illinois, I imagine its only a matter of time before Allstate and the remaining insurers in Illinois leave the state, like everyone else. This is a not a business friendly state and its run by anti-business morons.
“What happens to them if mortgages rates are 7% when they want to sell? Don’t presume that incomes will also be inflating to keep pace.
$500k house @3%, 80% mortgage = $1686/mo
$1686/mo @7%, 80% mortgage = $316,750 house
That’s a 36% loss, on their (likely) largest investment. Or, more likely, a 100% loss on their down payment + principal payments.”
I think your scenario is unlikely as I doubt rates will ever hit 7% ever again. But you don’t need that sort of drastic scenario to crash the housing market. As rates get lower and lower and debt gets higher and higher each incremental bip drop in the APR represents a larger portion of the overall interest nut.
When down payments aren’t 20% at entry level and they usually aren’t, you don’t need a doubling of rates to sink that valuation, especially if property taxes keep going up faster than inflation year after year.
Take your 2.5% mortgage of a week or two ago and flash forward a year and see it at 3.5% or 3.75% and a low downpayment entry level buyer is stuck there for 5-7 years making payments or mailing the keys in. It will have a much more pronounced affect on the market than rates going from 4.5% to 5.5%.
The properly ladder’s legs become more fragile the more debt is added onto it and more debt is only possible with lower rates.
“I imagine its only a matter of time before Allstate and the remaining insurers in Illinois leave the state, like everyone else. This is a not a business friendly state and its run by anti-business morons.”
They will stay. Trial lawyers are an important fundraising and constituency to Illinois Dems. Trial lawyers special interest group’s consist of highly regulated and claims businesses (among others) like insurance companies. Illinois has two of the largest 4 in the country for a reason. Plenty of clout and negotiating strength in Springfield.
What will be interesting to watch is to see if ComEd’s corporate offices bolt given Excelon’s latest corporate maneuvers and ComEd’s weakened political clout with recent scandals. Especially when new legislation will be introduced around going green in Springfield over the next 1 or 2 years. That’s probably would not be a good thing given the changes going on in the electric delivery and storage market that are taking root and will dominate the energy landscape and start-up space for the next few decades.
“I think your scenario is unlikely as I doubt rates will ever hit 7% ever again.”
Well, if there’s never again going to be meaningful inflation, then the whole country is probably in a debt spiral.
“Well, if there’s never again going to be meaningful inflation, then the whole country is probably in a debt spiral.”
200% debt-to-GDP coming soon..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WGZy0YRQSM
“200% debt-to-GDP coming soon.”
Japan already has >200% debt/GDP. Smaller economy and they are fine. So long as multinationals and Governments continue to do material business with US entities Central Banks and Governments around the world will have appetite to buy our debt. We still have AAA ratings from 2 of 3 ratings agencies.
Further, by the time the US Gov has issues selling debt most states, counties, and municipalities (not to mention dozens and dozens of foreign governments) would have defaulted long before.
Think how bad Illinois Pension liabilities are today (and have been for some time). Somehow we still hold onto an IG rating and sold $850MM in 5 and 10 year bonds back in October at 231 bps and 269 bps. Chicago still raises GO bonds in the 2’s.
“But you don’t need that sort of drastic scenario to crash the housing market.”
The housing market has only “crashed” twice in the last 100 years in the United States.
During the Great Depression and during the Great Recession. The Great Recession crash followed the largest housing bubble in the country since the Florida bubble of the 1920s (which also crashed- but that was regional).
You need speculation, risky debt-taking and a lot more inventory to get a “crash.”
Otherwise, Bob, everyone just stays in the house and lives their lives.
Much higher rates WILL mean that Americans can no longer buy a condo and expect to move in 3 years with appreciation. And maybe they have to live in the house for 15 to 20 years instead of 7 years.
It would definitely change buyer behavior.
But the Greatest Generation and the Silent Generation bought homes and many stayed for decades.
You are calling for a crash scenario that has, basically, never happened before in the United States with current housing market conditions.
It’s just not going to happen in the near term. Housing is slooooooow. Look at Chicago during the bust. It took 4 years to even get to the bottom. And some areas STILL aren’t back to the housing bubble peak prices.
And if it does “crash”- it will be 10 to 20 years from now. So why are you worrying about the doom and gloom right now?
Oh wait- it’s because you are a permabear. EVERYTHING is always doom and gloom. Forever and ever.
Just one year ago, you were telling us that 50% of Chicago restaurants would close due to COVID. Have they?
No.
The restaurants adapted and adjusted.
Have 25% closed?
Probably.
But behavior adjusts to a changing scenario. The weak hands are flushed out and everyone else moves on.
“What happens to them if mortgages rates are 7% when they want to sell? Don’t presume that incomes will also be inflating to keep pace.”
For years on this blog I said, “what happens when mortgage rates rise?” and was laughed off with everyone saying it was impossible and wasn’t going to happen.
So now you’re all saying they’re going to 7%?
The answer, when we’ve had this discussion over the last 14 years, was that, in the past, when the rates have gone up, home buyers simply traded down. Instead of buying the $400,000 home, they bought the $300,000 home to get the same monthly payment.
Now, the problem will be with the areas, like California, where there are NO $300,000 homes. How do you trade down?
Prices may decline, but it will be slow. Prices are always sticky on the down side as we saw in the housing bust. And you will need a LOT more inventory.
“For a city that’s “global” that’s pretty pathetic. Denver had $9MM SFH sales in 2020.”
It’s a single family home, WP. That statistic doesn’t include the condo sales.
“It’s a sleepy, mature business where with the right leadership will hit singles and doubles and 5% compound growth can continue. There is nothing wrong with that and it’s headquarters are a solid anchor for Chicago.”
Lol.
It’s creating new millionaires every year. The new CEO is getting millions in stock options, gifts and awards. So is the CFO. So are VPs. And on and on and on.
STOP ARGUING THAT THERE ISN’T MASSIVE WEALTH IN CHICAGO.
There is.
Enough, WP.
You are WRONG.
“Further, you look at the Midwest – Minneapolis and Columbus have made strides (still far behind) and Milwaukee could be interesting over the next decade or two for young people compared to Chicago.”
Chicago actually has attracted more young people with college degrees than any other city in America over the last 10 years.
We have the most educated population.
We have discussed this over and over on this blog over the last few years.
Go catch up.
Read the old posts.
I really don’t want to get into the “Chicago is doomed” matra when it is CLEARLY wrong. And has been for 10 years now.
The haven’t built 40 new highrises downtown over the last 10 years filled with luxury apartments for the 70 year olds.
And they continue to file development plans for more, despite the pandemic.
The city is going to explode in energy by this summer. We’ve just got to get more of the vaccine rolled out nationwide so that we can get travel, business and tourism operating again.
Once the Cubs and White Sox let the fans in again, the turnaround will be here.
“Having a property (ies) here doesnt mean he’s a resident – big difference”
Who CARES if he’s a “resident”?
That’s not what was asked.
He asked if he “lives here anymore”?
Yes, he has properties here including a huge penthouse, as we all know. He just donated $125 million to the Museum of Science and Industry (if you all remember).
Has he moved his “residence” to Florida?
I don’t know. Probably. Saves on taxes. He owns homes down there too.
That’s his business.
George Lucas and Mellody Hobson have a home in Chicago. They also have homes elsewhere, including California.
Does it matter to any of us?
No.
“I said a starting Google engineer gets $125,000. Never said they were “software” or anything else.”
Ok now you are being rude. What exactly does this mythical non-descript engineer do at google to deserve a 6 figure starting salary?
“The only people with equity are those who have owned for a long time and made payments combined with rising property values. This doesn’t apply to first time homeowners and as the bottom level of the housing market hits distress this will eventually spread to the rest of the market except for the high-end.”
I talk to a lot of mortgage brokers and experts in the housing industry.
They have ALL said this isn’t 2008. This is the best group of borrowers possibly EVER in the United States thanks to the changes in lending after the housing bust.
It is TIGHT.
And most buyers over the last decade have equity.
Heck, even HELOCs have been low. Most Americans aren’t even borrowing for that. There’s a lot of equity, especially with rising prices in most parts of the United States over the last 9 years.
Chicago is probably the only big city that is not great on home appreciation (depending on neighborhood or suburb).
But in others, home values have literally doubled off the 2012 lows.
“You just made the bear case for the market for me. Thank you for saving me the keystrokes. Yes mortgage rates are going to go back down to 2.5% on a 30-year. Sure.”
In 2017 when the rates rose 75 basis points it slowed the Chicago housing market from 2016’s strong market (when 30 year rates fell to 3.75%, then the record low).
But the housing market didn’t “crash” “plunge” etc. And, no, prices didn’t decline.
What rate will it take to do the same thing this year?
It’s certainly not 3% or even 3.25%.
3.5%?
3.75%?
4%?
Any mortgage with a 4-handle would certainly be shocking as we haven’t seen that for quite a while.
BUT- if we they’re 4% then that means the economy is on FIRE. Literally. Would likely mean 6% to 8% GDP for Q3 and Q4.
“Again, you’ve said rates wouldn’t impact sales, only supply. So obviously you were wrong.”
Whut???
I said the market would slow if rates rise. That ALWAYS happens. Happened in 2017 and would happen again this year.
“Where’s the appreciation?”
It’s everywhere. Look around your suburb JohnnyU. 10%+ depending on location.
Basic economics. Supply and demand JohnnyU. You know. Too many buyers, not enough sellers means the price goes UP.
Gasp.
“Ok now you are being rude. What exactly does this mythical non-descript engineer do at google to deserve a 6 figure starting salary?”
All the engineers at the big tech companies start in the six figures in Silicon Valley.
Chicago pays well too, but it’s lower than what you get in SV which is why they’re now hiring more in Chicago because it saves them money.
Also, if you are a “starting” engineer and you nab a job at Google or the like, you’re likely at the top of your class at a very good school and can command the high salary.
The problem with engineers, which everyone in Silicon Valley used to complain about, is that you really don’t go up all that much more from your starting salary. You make a lot out of the gate and then, stall out.
Lots of engineers in Silicon Valley don’t want their kids to be engineers because of the money issue they know too well (not to mention being forced out of work at a relatively young age. Ugh.)
Please stop talking about engineering salaries like you have any idea what you are talking about. Its seriously embarrassing.
“Please stop talking about engineering salaries like you have any idea what you are talking about. Its seriously embarrassing.”
I only know what’s going on in Silicon Valley as I have friends who work out there.
And what Google and others have said about hiring in Chicago and what the salaries are like here, compared to there.
That’s all I know.
Sorry you aren’t making six figures Fred. (yikes!)
“All the engineers at the big tech companies start in the six figures in Silicon Valley.”
Correct.
“Chicago pays well too, but it’s lower than what you get in SV which is why they’re now hiring more in Chicago because it saves them money.”
Correct.
“Also, if you are a “starting” engineer and you nab a job at Google or the like, you’re likely at the top of your class at a very good school and can command the high salary.”
Google pays market rate, there’s no reason for them not to. Market rate for a starting engineer outside of California is not $125k.
“The problem with engineers, which everyone in Silicon Valley used to complain about, is that you really don’t go up all that much more from your starting salary. You make a lot out of the gate and then, stall out.”
I make 4x what I did when I started. This may have been true 25 years ago when you lived in Ess Eff, but it’s not true now.
“(not to mention being forced out of work at a relatively young age. Ugh.)”
I have worked with many engineers in their 50’s over the years. What’s your definition of a “young age”?
“I only know what’s going on in Silicon Valley as I have friends who work out there.”
And I only know what’s going on in Chicago, where I have lived and worked for more than a decade.
“And what Google and others have said about hiring in Chicago and what the salaries are like here, compared to there.”
Yes, most large multi-office software companies have 2 pay scales: one for California, and one for the rest of the country.
“That’s all I know.”
Yes, basically nothing.
am
“ I was going to crib on this interesting 1000 N Lake Shore Plaza unit but, alas, it has already gone contingent before I could get to it.
That’s going to be common this year.
You have to move fast when new properties come on the market.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1000-N-Lake-Shore-Dr-60611/unit-3A/home/14121753”
Can you stop lying for once in your life?
For fucks sake they’ve been trying to sell since July you dolt
They started out asking $650k and we’re willing to rent for $3500. Dropped the ask to $615, which may mean they took less. Oh yeah they bought for $601k.
In what world does selling or renting for a loss make a HAWT market ™?
I hope you aren’t in a position to offer financial advise to anyone and anyone you do offer has the intelligence to run away
Not going to apologize for being wrong?
“The housing market has only “crashed” twice in the last 100 years in the United States.
During the Great Depression and during the Great Recession. The Great Recession crash followed the largest housing bubble in the country since the Florida bubble of the 1920s (which also crashed- but that was regional).”
So it’s not a problem till it’s a problem, got it
“You need speculation, risky debt-taking and a lot more inventory to get a “crash.”
Where has the explosion of money the Fed has injected into the market gone? I’m sure there was no malinvestment
“Much higher rates WILL mean that Americans can no longer buy a condo and expect to move in 3 years with appreciation. And maybe they have to live in the house for 15 to 20 years instead of 7 years.”
Where is this condo appreciation you speak of?
“You are calling for a crash scenario that has, basically, never happened before in the United States with current housing market conditions.”
Maybe that’s why they’re called black swans?
“It’s just not going to happen in the near term. Housing is slooooooow. Look at Chicago during the bust. It took 4 years to even get to the bottom. And some areas STILL aren’t back to the housing bubble peak prices.
And if it does “crash”- it will be 10 to 20 years from now. So why are you worrying about the doom and gloom right now?“
This is where you are a joke. If you work in “finance” this is basically the golden ticket. With your “great knowledge” of the RE market, you should make a killing, yet you’re on the sidelines. That’s called a shill
The restaurants adapted and adjusted.
Have 25% closed?
Probably.
But behavior adjusts to a changing scenario. The weak hands are flushed out and everyone else moves on.
It’s not weak hands, it’s restaurants that could pivot to match the markets or ignored gov Fat Fuck.
“Chicago actually has attracted more young people with college degrees than any other city in America over the last 10 years.
We have the most educated population.”
Link?
“I really don’t want to get into the “Chicago is doomed” matra when it is CLEARLY wrong.”
It does face some serious headwinds which you fail to acknowledge and claim that everyone that does acknowledge there’s problems is a bear/roots for Chicago to fail
“The city is going to explode in energy by this summer. We’ve just got to get more of the vaccine rolled out nationwide so that we can get travel, business and tourism operating again.
Once the Cubs and White Sox let the fans in again, the turnaround will be here.”
Didn’t the consummate politician say March 22?
“Having a property (ies) here doesnt mean he’s a resident – big difference”
Who CARES if he’s a “resident”?
That’s not what was asked.
“He asked if he “lives here anymore”?
Yes, he has properties here including a huge penthouse, as we all know. He just donated $125 million to the Museum of Science and Industry (if you all remember).
Has he moved his “residence” to Florida?
I don’t know. Probably. Saves on taxes. He owns homes down there too.”
Lives denotes domicile. I have a cabin in WI, but I don’t say I live there. No one does
That’s his business.
George Lucas and Mellody Hobson have a home in Chicago. They also have homes elsewhere, including California.
Does it matter to any of us?
No.”
It does if someone like Kenny, Steve Cohen, etc domiciles somewhere else as it does have an impact on the states coffers. Unless you think Gov Fat Fuck and the state has enough money?
“Chicago pays well too, but it’s lower than what you get in SV which is why they’re now hiring more in Chicago because it saves them money.
Also, if you are a “starting” engineer and you nab a job at Google or the like, you’re likely at the top of your class at a very good school and can command the high salary.
The problem with engineers, which everyone in Silicon Valley used to complain about, is that you really don’t go up all that much more from your starting salary. You make a lot out of the gate and then, stall out.”
So wait, I thought These folks were buying the $1MM+ Properties and now you tell me they basically he peak earning right out of the gate
You shilling would be better served going with a singly lie and keeping with said lie, Vs making things up on the fly
“Chicago actually has attracted more young people with college degrees than any other city in America over the last 10 years.
We have the most educated population.”
More lies. Chicago is not the top 10 for percentage of population with a 4 year college degree, growth in share of college educated adults between 2012 – 2017, percentage of population with graduate degrees, or in growth in share of adults with graduate degrees between 2012 – 2017.
They are however, in the bottom 10 (#9) of US cities in growth in share of adults with graduate degrees between 2012 – 2017 at 16% whereas places like Indianapolis is at 32.2%.
Guess the flyover cities that are in the top 10 of most of these lists – Minneapolis, Austin, Denver, Nashville, Charlotte, Mesa, Raleigh, Atlanta, and Miami.
I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that states with the largest population growth are Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado, Arizona. Imagine that.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/ranking-america-s-most-educated-cities
“More lies. Chicago is not the top 10 for percentage of population with a 4 year college degree, growth in share of college educated adults between 2012 – 2017, percentage of population with graduate degrees, or in growth in share of adults with graduate degrees between 2012 – 2017.”
Sabrina defends Chicagoland like someone that has lived here their whole life, has family here & hasn’t traveled much like many of my high-school peers from the Cincinnati area speak about Cincinnati.
She is a local yokel to the core but unlike the Cincinnati people I know who admit that they are, she vociferously denies it and talks Chicago up like it’s some world class mega city. It’s quite hilarious her level of cognitive dissonance.
Sabrina you _are_ a midwest local yokel. It just so happens your city is larger than other midwest cities.
“The city is going to explode in energy by this summer. We’ve just got to get more of the vaccine rolled out nationwide so that we can get travel, business and tourism operating again.”
You are setting yourself up for some major disappointment. Will there be more energy than last summer yes (hopefully less exploding glass and fire) but there are still going to be a fair amount of restrictions.
Just in the last couple weeks more conventions were canceled at McCormick Place for the summer/fall.
JB will come out at some point and update re-opening requirements doing a phase 4A, 4B, 4C, etc. We aren’t just jumping from phase 4 to 5.
There’s some excitement with recent articles about Lola coming back this year. There’s no way this city/state allow thousands and thousands of people (many of whom will be drunk) to be spitting on each other in close proximity in Grant Park come August. I don’t buy it.
Let’s see if we can get 50% capacity at Wrigley and Guaranteed Rate by August.
Lets see if high schools can reopen before fall.
Lets see if bars and restaurants can get to 75% – full capacity.
Let’s see if employers bring back 50%+ of their workers to the office.
When these things start happening we can start to discuss “energy” coming back to the city.
Remember the risk they are now saying is come fall there will be another spike we will need to contend with. It shouldn’t be severe like we have seen previously. But the party of science and safety need to keep the act up after calling Abbott, DeSantis, Kemp, Noem, Reynolds, etc. idiots and human sacrificers for the past year.
I don’t think you appreciate just how big of a culture war reopening is not just on the right in reopening with no restrictions but on the left ensuring and proving their lockdowns “saved lives”. There can be no middle ground for either side especially in deep blue states like Cali, NY, Ill, etc.
And no that doesn’t mean I advocate flinging the doors open and packing the UC with 20K+ people for concerts with no masks.
Sabrina here’s the State Comptroller discussing what they are thinking just yesterday….
“All of us, Democrats and Republicans, from Chicago to Galena to Cairo, we all agree we need to do whatever we can within appropriate safety protocols to gradually open this critical segment of our economy again”.
Key word “GRADUALLY”
“As more and more of our people are vaccinated and Illinois continues in a positive direction, it’s really gratifying for me to hear that outdoor events like the State Fair this summer are a very real possibility,” Mendoza said.
“When necessary, we can always adjust and be nimble, recognizing of course that public health and safety are always the prime consideration”
Committing to nothing. Its only a “possibility”. How much of a States population should be vaccinated before gradually re-opening more?
I get she isn’t the Gov. but to be at this stage and the only people getting quoted/answering questions on this are the Comptroller and Mayor of Chicago tells me there hasn’t been much planning in going from stage 4 to 5 yet. Why isn’t the Gov. answering questions like this? He is the decision maker. Not a good sign.
https://www.southernminn.com/around_the_web/news/article_21f1e2c6-889f-5f5d-9115-0daeeb0d1b6f.html
““The city is going to explode in energy by this summer. We’ve just got to get more of the vaccine rolled out nationwide so that we can get travel, business and tourism operating again.”
LOL. First of all, this COVID regime imposed on us is based on a hoax. The implications of that are that it is NEVER going away. The Leftist nanny state loves lording over people more successful than them, that have what they do not. Their sinful jealousy is so severe that they will NEVER relinquish the power structures they have installed with this bullshit. Just like we are never getting rid of the Patriot Act and TSA and domestic surveillance.
There will now always be a “new threat” like post-9/11 era. Not a islamic terror threat but a “new strain” or some bullshit announcement from the CDC filled with tyrannical little leftists and hysterical feminists.
The COVID hoax regime restrictions are also a practice run for the next BS regime restrictions that will inflict us severely over the next decade: those of “climate change” tyranny. We can’t even imagine what those will be, in practice, but they are coming. Don’t laugh, in 15 years it’s plausible the Taste of Chicago outlaws meat and propane tanks by some bureaucrat’s diktat. Entirely plausible when we keep electing sexual perverts, hate-filled officials with jealousy complexes, anti-white racists with axes to grind, losers who were “bullied”, women drugged on SSRIs and benzene anti-depressants. This is who runs Chicago now. Who would have ever thought 10 years ago Chicago public schools would be supporting transsexualism? It’s coming.
Dr. Doom and Gloom is back throwing cold water on the reopening thesis as we are plateauing in case count not decreasing anymore and the death variant is coming.
“We’ve just now recently experienced the worst surge,” Fauci said. “The issue is that we are starting to plateau. That plateau is about 60,000 to 70,000 cases a day. When you have that much viral activity in a plateau, it almost invariably means that you are at risk of another spike.
“Many countries in Europe have seen just that — over the past week, an increase in cases by 9 percent, something we desperately want to avoid,” he added.”
So it probably takes another month for this variant to really be pervasive and at least a month (maybe two) after that to get it to start plateauing, a month after that to decline, and a month after that to move forward in the re-opening process from where we are now assuming we don’t move backward. That would be around the 4th of July at the earliest or “beginning of summer” (summer officially begins June 20) as Comptroller Mendoza alluded too.
Also, Brazil is an absolute mess right now with Covid. Hopefully no flights are happening between Brazil and Miami especially with the traditional US “spring break” upon us.
Given how JB has Governed through Covid I wouldn’t expect much “energy” in Chicago over the next few months.
https://nypost.com/2021/03/05/dr-fauci-warns-of-covid-19-spike-despite-more-vaccine-doses/
“Much higher rates WILL mean that Americans can no longer buy a condo and expect to move in 3 years with appreciation. And maybe they have to live in the house for 15 to 20 years ”
Nobody waits 15 to 20 years to break even on equity and RE transaction costs. It’s called mailing in the keys, even for those able to cover the payments it’s the economically rational thing to do and that’s what you’ll see. Twenty years is almost enough time for 3 foreclosures & two bankruptcies to not affect your credit score in the interim.
“Dr. Doom and Gloom is back throwing cold water on the reopening thesis as we are plateauing in case count not decreasing anymore and the death variant is coming.”
Yep. We’ll be getting a second summer out of our (cheapo above ground) pandemic pool (I really need to start shoveling some neighbors’ sidewalks to put some goodwill in the bank). A recent poll of those in my office, with folks betting on which date we’ll all (for the most part) be “back in the office” had the Tues following Labor Day as the most-selected date.
” A recent poll of those in my office, with folks betting on which date we’ll all (for the most part) be “back in the office” had the Tues following Labor Day as the most-selected date.”
In some cities, sure. in others like NYC, SF or Chicago…I’m not so sure things will ever return to ‘normal’. No one I know is excited about returning to downtown and employers are looking for office space elsewhere…
The real threat is the severe variants. I worry that the vaccines will not be effective against some of them and the virus can mutate faster than we can vaccinate – i.e. it’s here to stay for quite a while, getting more and more transmissible and deadly. Fourth, fifth, sixth…waves. Economy in shambles.
Helmethofer, can’t believe you’re still living the hoax fantasy even after 525,000 dead and life expectancy of entire country down by 1 year. Why are you in denial? Do you believe the sun is blue? Shocked that Trump was not inaugurated yesterday?
“The real threat is the severe variants.”
This would be the first pandemic, in the history of civilization, to continue on in perpetuity, because of variants that get stronger as the virus mutates. Even in antiquity, plagues came and went, but it was almost always the same underlying germ. Your fear of variants is completely exaggerated. Stop listening to that fraud Fauci…that man is a complete fraud. The only people left who still respect his opinion are the blue checks on twitter and the talking heads on tv…the rest of us pretty much ignore that guy.
“Helmethofer, can’t believe you’re still living the hoax fantasy”
As I once saw some anon post on the internet: CV is not a hoax – it is very real. But the response has been a fraud.
Its nowhere nearly as deadly as initially predicted. The lock downs have been counter-productive, as they failed to stop the spread of the virus. The death toll from other causes – including suicide and drug overdose, is astronomical. More children under 18 have died of suicide than from coronavirus. There is little if any difference in infection rates and death and hospitalization rates between open states and closed states – and by some metrics, closed states seemed to have fared worse. Some states, like NY and MI, made things worse by shipping infected patients BACK into nursing homes…ouch…
Chicago, and Illinois, unfortunately bought into, what I call, Lock Down Lite, and we have suffered immensely for it. Our surrounding neighbors are, by all measures, thriving, while the crown jewel of the midwest, Michigan Ave and downtown, is collapsing from malfeasance. It has been obvious to *everyone* that IL’s covid decisions have have failed, but our leaders cannot admit mistakes, and claim that it was all for equity or some other mumbo-jumbo, when we all know, and the evidence is overwhelmingly clear, that they let Blue state politics interfere with the actual science behind this virus.
IL got some things right, we allowed some activity in phase 3 and 4, and there were no crazy ‘masks outdoors’ nonsense. And the gov’s executive orders were treated as mere suggestions to be ignored outside of the collar counties, and there was no real push back on that. It’s too bad that IL will pay the price for the incompetence of our leaders who chose to politicize a virus and use the opportunity to destroy the economic stability of the state.
“But the response has been a fraud.”
Little Mrs. Gretchen Whitmer also declared racism a public health emergency. And she needs those black votes so she is going to do everything in her power to pander to them and implement autocratic policies favorable to them.
You know, in places like, say, New Zealand, they have liberals, and conservatives, including both moderate and fringe-types of both. You know what they don’t have? Covid-19
“You know, in places like, say, New Zealand, they have liberals, and conservatives, including both moderate and fringe-types of both. You know what they don’t have? Covid-19”
Is your point that lock downs stop the spread? If that is your one example, I can give you two counter-example of other places that locked down pretty hard too but it didn’t stop community spread:
Israel & UK
For quite some time, Israelis couldn’t go further than 1,000 meters from their home.
And New Zealand still has community spread too. They have cases too, just fewer than other places. And every time they open up, it spreads again.
All New Zealand has done is keep pushing the spread into the future and destroying the economy. Their supply chains are all messed up, up to 2/3rds of their businesses have been destroyed, and their tourism is basically 0, and will be indefinitely.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases
“Israel & UK”
Two things to bear in mind. First and foremost, both of those places, unlike NZ and more like the U.S., have significantly large populations of right-wing nuts, kooks and religious fanatics (not mere “conservatives”) who carry outsize sway in the governance of their countries (similar to the U.S.). Those sorts have obviously made things much harder (see, e.g., the dangerous behavior in some of the NYC area’s ultra orthodox communities, and the UK’s leadership these past few years generally). Second, spent a lot of time in those places? I was in Israel a couple summers ago, and it’s basically the size of a corner of the typical U.S. state, with tons of people packed in (again, many of whom are religious nuts; if it weren’t for Israel and the UK also having a disproportionate number of super smart people to counteract the kooks, they’d be done for).
NZ tourism is basically 0 you say? Yeah, no shit. If they were letting people from countries like ours in there freely this past year (which they quite wisely they have not), yeah, their hotels would be doing better (as if ours aren’t struggling), and they’d be in the same unenviable boat as us. I would have moved there in a HEARTBEAT over this past year if they’d have had us.
anonny,
You were making sense until you went off on a tangent showing your religious bigotry and antisemitism. And then to top it off, you say that you’d move to New Zealand, a country that completely locked down because you’re scared of a virus that has a 99.98% survival rate. And you call everyone else the kooks?
The fact of the matter is that, a year into this, the science shows that the elderly, and the morbidly obese (and the obese elderly) are most at risk of serious illness. Nearly every one else get a mild to moderate case of the sniffles – and I know *dozens* people who’ve had it.
The US handled this just fine, probably about middle of the pack on a case per million basis. The virus does what it’s going to do.
If you want to point fingers, the worst states locked down the hardest, for the longest, and did little to protect their elderly and infirmed. Hard to blame the orange man when NY’s and MI’s nursing home death counts were so bad that they had to hide or scrub figures.
“This would be the first pandemic, in the history of civilization, to continue on in perpetuity, because of variants that get stronger as the virus mutates. Even in antiquity, plagues came and went, but it was almost always the same underlying germ.”
If you want to use history as your guide, the black death wiped out 30 – 60% of Europe. So that could happen again?
“Its nowhere nearly as deadly as initially predicted. The lock downs have been counter-productive, as they failed to stop the spread of the virus.”
Yet 525,000 have died and more to come. Pretty deadly. And you can’t say that the lockdowns have failed to stop the spread of the virus because every time we get a surge we lockdown and it comes back down. If you reduce human interaction you absolutely have to reduce the spread. It’s just common sense. How are you going to get it you’re not in contact with other people? I will bet you $10,000 that every single person that got it (except patient 0) got it from another person.
“ And you can’t say that the lockdowns have failed to stop the spread of the virus because every time we get a surge we lockdown and it comes back down.”
The data also very clearly shows that places that didn’t lock down also had surges that came back down. You just want to believe that lockdowns work. But when compared to control groups- the non-lock down states, the argument crumbles. SD and FL should have the highest rates in most deaths but they don’t.
“You were making sense until you went off on a tangent showing your religious bigotry and antisemitism.”
Totally. All us antisemites love to go to the time, expense and (mild) risk of traveling to Israel. It’s our number one destination!
“And then to top it off, you say that you’d move to New Zealand, a country that completely locked down because you’re scared of a virus that has a 99.98% survival rate. And you call everyone else the kooks?”
Yes, yes indeed. My family and friends in NZ are living normal lives (well, more extraordinary than normal, because they’re in NZ; as an aside, both of the guys in the families I’m referencing are on the conservative end of the spectrum, and both have been shocked to see how so-called “conservatives” in the U.S. have gone off the rails). Before their summer, school was normal; they’ve been back to full blown sporting and music events for months; they’re having epic summers; school will be resuming shortly, totally normal. There will have been a million Americans dead by the time we come close to how they’ve been back to living in NZ.
It’s all so dumb. Half of this country’s adults spent most of 2020 complaining about shutdowns and masks and instead hyping survival rates and goofy treatments they saw on YouTube. Had there been a normal presidential administration (even a Republican one) all of 2020, with a reasonable and informed population, this would all be behind us. We were so lucky that WWII transpired on other continents; we came out of that so much more powerful and richer than we went into it. We had a great run for more than a half century, then all it took was one super incompetent administration with fascist inclinations to completely botch its handling of a pandemic, and now we’re in what is probably an irreversible declining path towards being a very dangerous failed state.
“The data also very clearly shows that places that didn’t lock down also had surges that came back down. You just want to believe that lockdowns work.”
Lockdowns work. The virus looks for the easiest hosts. Those were always going to be indoors in movie theaters, restaurants etc. We know what transmits it.
All you have to do is look at Brazil.
A strict national mask mandate would have gone really far to control transmission too. But we never had that.
We are in a race against the Brazilian and British variants now. If we can get the vaccine into enough arms before the next outbreak, we can defeat this. The next few weeks is critical. Cases have leveled off. They’re not declining anymore. Bad sign. Let’s hope it reverses and resumes falling.
“The data also very clearly shows that places that didn’t lock down also had surges that came back down. You just want to believe that lockdowns work. But when compared to control groups- the non-lock down states, the argument crumbles. SD and FL should have the highest rates in most deaths but they don’t.”
Show me the complex multivariate analysis that looks at this problem, controlling for when the virus hit different states and the standard of care employed and the variants of the virus that were at each state and the degree of social distancing and mask wearing observed and nursing home policies. In fact, SD is #8 on the list in terms of deaths per MM: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
Do you not believe that more human interaction must, mathematically, result in more transmission?
“Chicago, and Illinois, unfortunately bought into, what I call, Lock Down Lite, and we have suffered immensely for it. Our surrounding neighbors are, by all measures, thriving, while the crown jewel of the midwest, Michigan Ave and downtown, is collapsing from malfeasance.”
None of our neighbors has a Chicago. Sorry HD.
And if you think St Louis is “thriving” right now, clearly you are in la-la denial land. NO larger city, no matter what state, is “thriving” right now. NONE. And, yeah, that includes Miami.
The airlines are still at 50% last year’s capacity. Nationwide. Hotels aren’t even at 50% nationwide. 25% of restaurants have shut.
It wasn’t as bad as initially feared however.
Chicago has several hotels under distress right now. Two in the Loop, 2 in River North, one in Streeterville. Let’s hope it doesn’t get much worse.
Houston was expected to see 50% of its hotels get in distress. I don’t think it will be that bad there either.
Cities will come back. Nothing is “collapsing.”
Congress just passed a huge aid package that will really go far to plug the holes in the major cities from lost revenue due to lost tourism/travel etc. It will also help with costs of rolling out the vaccine.
It’s just the bears who have to root against America, again. Why? Why the doom and actively HOPING that America’s cities don’t make it?
I don’t get it.
I don’t understand that mindset at all. This is the country with SpaceX and who created all the vaccines going around the world.
Why are you rooting against it?
By the way, is Michigan Avenue the “crown jewel” or is it really the Rush Street corridor which has been replacing the Mag Mile for years?
Rush has just 9% vacancy right now. Michigan Avenue is more than 20%. Different customers. The street is going to have to adapt to new types of retailers and experiences on that street.
I’m sure they can, and will, do it.
“Helmethofer, can’t believe you’re still living the hoax fantasy even after 525,000 dead and life expectancy of entire country down by 1 year.”
Hard to believe there are still COVID deniers out there after what the world has been through.
But here we are.
“No one I know is excited about returning to downtown and employers are looking for office space elsewhere…”
You’re old HD. Talk to a 25 year old. They can’t wait to go back to the office. Do you really think they want to sit in their apartments for the rest of their lives?
They mostly live in the city. Can walk, take a bus, the water taxi to work.
Do old people who were commuting 2 hours every day on Metra from Geneva want to start doing it again?
No.
“Nobody waits 15 to 20 years to break even on equity and RE transaction costs.”
Wrong.
Lol.
Everyone just wants to live somewhere. And raise their family.
Everyone I know in California has owned their homes for decades. Now, Prop 13 makes that the reason why. But when economic conditions change, so does behavior. People are adverse to losing money so they’ll just live in their homes even longer.
Bob. This is America. The home is the American Dream. Who wants to “mail in the keys”? No one even wanted to do that with their dumb investment homes 13 years ago.
Again, the US consumer is at their strongest in decades. Credit is mostly tight. Limits haven’t been raised. The banks aren’t lending above what people can afford.
There are always those that get into financial trouble due to job loss, illness etc. But the economy absorbs that.
I hope you check in here a year from now as the economy is booming but you won’t, Bob, because you only show up when you want to talk the doom and gloom. That’s why you were off this blog for, what, 6 or 7 years until COVID hit?
“Dr. Doom and Gloom is back throwing cold water on the reopening thesis as we are plateauing in case count not decreasing anymore and the death variant is coming.”
Yes- he is right. We are plateauing on the case declines. Must vaccinate faster. That’s our only hope.
Central Europe is seeing another outbreak now. Parts of Italy just had to lock down again.
I’m with you WP about the flights from Brazil. Why aren’t all flights cancelled between the US and Brazil? (are they???)
“Committing to nothing. Its only a “possibility”. How much of a States population should be vaccinated before gradually re-opening more?”
Listen in on her briefings. They’ll tell you.
Nationwide, 23% of adults have been vaccinated. We’re moving quickly. By this summer, the economy is going to be humming on all cylinders as consumers rush out to spend, do, and live again.
It’s already happening.
Miami Beach hotels at 70% occupancy this week. Was 83% a year ago just as COVID was hitting. 2 months ago was at 50%.
“You are setting yourself up for some major disappointment. Will there be more energy than last summer yes (hopefully less exploding glass and fire) but there are still going to be a fair amount of restrictions.”
Nope. I’m not wrong. It’s already happening WP.
Once again, you’re betting against the wrong horse.
Vaccine is rolling out even quicker now. 2.9 million doses over the weekend in a single day. By mid-May, those who want the vaccine will be able to get it. Cases will be way down (hopefully).
Already some tourists coming to town. Already lines out the door at some restaurants. People aren’t afraid and aren’t doing curbside pick-up any more. They will return to indoor malls and movie theaters. Museums reopening.
Will take some time to allow fans back at 100% capacity into sport and theater venues. But it will happen. They are already letting fans into college basketball games again.
Just have to get through the next 2 months.
We’ll be wearing masks for a LONG time however.
In Asia, they wear them every winter. Could be the new norm.
“More lies. Chicago is not the top 10 for percentage of population with a 4 year college degree, growth in share of college educated adults between 2012 – 2017, percentage of population with graduate degrees, or in growth in share of adults with graduate degrees between 2012 – 2017.”
Nope. Please, I beg you bears. We’ve already discussed this AT LENGTH on this blog when the study came out.
It’s why Chicago was Facebook’s second office. It’s why Google is expanding. It’s why Salesforce is building a 60 story tower on the River.
Chicago has the talent. The most of all the big cities in America. And it’s on sale.
Please search this blog.
“Everyone I know in California has owned their homes for decades. Now, Prop 13 makes that the reason why. But when economic conditions change, so does behavior. People are adverse to losing money so they’ll just live in their homes even longer.”
—————————————–
Chicago and Illinois don’t have a Prop 13, so if people are sitting tight inn Chicago for decades to avoid losing money, then there has to be another answer.
God, it’s a a year later, people keep doubling double on stupid, and ignoring the science:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7010e3-H.pdf
Mask mandates ‘decreases’ Covid by 0.5-1.5 percent, with 5 percent margin of error…
So, within that margin of errors, masks could be marginally useful, or, could make things worse…
Who knows? We’re going to be wearing masks a long time despite the dubious science behind it!
“Cities will come back. Nothing is “collapsing.” ”
Not all cities – just some cities, primarily Chicago, SF, NY, Seattle, Portland, Minneapolis.
Miami is apparently booming with NY restaurants relocating and there are three month wait lists already.
Many other cities in the sun belt are apparently doing well too.
Gary,
“Do you not believe that more human interaction must, mathematically, result in more transmission?”‘
Partially. There’s a lot of community transmission without any known source. I know a guy who thinks he caught it breathing in air (while wearing a mask, of course) in the hallways of his condo building, even though he rarely left his house.
I’ll concede, in theory, that hermetically sealing people into their homes for weeks on end could reduce transmission. But short of that, the science and data shows that community spread happens regardless of masks, regardless of lock downs, regardless of precautions. Few lock down and mask enthusiasts will admit they were wrong, but then again, cult members never see willingly believe the truth either.
In fact, the only commonality I’ve seen (And others have seen too, these are not original thoughts I’m posting here) is that countries with the oldest and/or most obese populations have the highest morbidity rates. That’s across counties, ethnicity, incomes, races, lock downs, masks, you name it: locales with obese and old people got hit the hardest. Except FL, despite old and obese people, by staying open, they spread the virus out instead of concentrating it, resulting in overall less infections. This is totally contrary to the epidemiologists’ prevailing wisdom.
The only truth I’ve known during all of this is that our leaders know nothing and they are as incompetent as the day is long.
“ Nope. Please, I beg you bears. We’ve already discussed this AT LENGTH on this blog when the study came out.
It’s why Chicago was Facebook’s second office. It’s why Google is expanding. It’s why Salesforce is building a 60 story tower on the River.
Chicago has the talent. The most of all the big cities in America. And it’s on sale.”
So no link
This is Johnny’s shocked face
“ Not all cities – just some cities, primarily Chicago, SF, NY, Seattle, Portland, Minneapolis.
Miami is apparently booming with NY restaurants relocating and there are three month wait lists already.
Many other cities in the sun belt are apparently doing well too.”
Mpls isn’t too bad yet, but could be a shitshow after the Chauvin trial.
PHx is booming
“ And if you think St Louis is “thriving” right now, clearly you are in la-la denial land. NO larger city, no matter what state, is “thriving” right now. NONE. And, yeah, that includes Miami.”
Wait wasn’t Jack going to revitalize the city?
Is Soulard ready to turn the corner
Clown…
“This is Johnny’s shocked face”
She talks about the area like Cincinnati local-yokels talk about how great Skyline & Goldstar Chili are.
When you’ve never lived anywhere else in the world for any length of time, where you’re from becomes the best place in the world, naturally.
“Chicago has the talent. The most of all the big cities in America. And it’s on sale.”
It’s on a sale compared to NYC, San Fran, Seattle, Boston yes. I don’t know where you come up with “most of all the big cities in America”.
Part of the reason Illinois population continues to decline is due to Illinois being the largest exporter of high school grads to other states.
“Figures released by the Illinois Board of Higher Education show that 48.4 percent of Illinois public high school graduates enrolled in four-year universities in 2017 attended out-of-state institutions.
That’s up from 46.6 percent in 2016 and about 45 percent in 2015.
That figure has steadily climbed over the past two decades, according to state data. As recently as 2002, only 29.3 percent of Illinois high school graduates went to out-of-state, four-year colleges.”
“Indeed, state data show about two-thirds of Illinoisans choosing four-year colleges land in Iowa, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota.”
Sure a percentage come back. Unless you stay on the Iowa side of the Quad cities probably heading back to Illinois and likely Chicago. Same goes with Indiana it’s either Indianapolis, maybe around South Bend or back to Chicago.
Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Missouri grads have some interesting choices post graduation.
“But in recent years, schools farther afield also have gained a foothold in the Illinois market.
University of Alabama, for instance, has invested heavily in scholarship packages for high-achieving students out of state. The number of Illinoisans enrolled in Tuscaloosa has increased more than tenfold in the past decade.
States including Utah, Georgia, Nebraska, California and Mississippi have recorded double-digit percent increases in the amount of Illinois public high school graduates enrolling in their schools since 2015.”
The vast majority of people going to schools in these states ain’t coming back to Chicago or Illinois. They are gone for at least a decade if not forever.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-met-illinois-students-college-enrollment-out-of-state-20190312-story.html
“The death toll from other causes – including suicide and drug overdose, is astronomical.”
Cite. please. No anecdata.
“Mask mandates ‘decreases’ Covid by 0.5-1.5 percent”
WRONG. Decreases “growth rates” by 0.5-1.5 percentage *points*. So if growth rate = 5%, mask mandate decreases growth rate to 4.5%-3.5%. If growth rate = 10%, mask mandate decreases growth rate to 9.5%-8.5%.
Are you (1) reading too fast, (2) just spreading someone else’s poor reading, or (3) actively misleading? Bc I know your reading comp is better than that.
“I’ll concede, in theory, that hermetically sealing people into their homes for weeks on end could reduce transmission.”
That’s what they did in Wuhan. Locked or welded exterior doors shut on apartment buildings, had the military delivering food.
“Already some tourists coming to town.”
key word “some”. Of course it’s not going down from where we were last summer but it’s not going to be at pre-covid levels for years. is it 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% or 90% of pre-covid levels this summer? I think we struggle getting much higher than 50% this year.
“Already lines out the door at some restaurants. People aren’t afraid and aren’t doing curbside pick-up any more.”
This is a supply not a demand issue. If 1/4 have closed already we are likely at 1/3 by summer with a replacement rate of ~5% mostly on the lower-end i.e. fast casual or neighborhood bar. Not much on the high end or sit-down I suspect. Currently, of the 70% – 75% that remain capacity is capped at 50% so now you are down to 35% – 38% of pre-covid capacity.
If these places weren’t packed on the weekends and during dinner time wow this economy would be absolutely awful instead of meh (good not great if you are in an office job – depends on industry but bad if you are service based which is starting to bounce back a little).
“They will return to indoor malls and movie theaters. Museums reopening.”
No one is going to malls. The market has spoken on this. Amazon was eating their lunch and the pandemic dropped the hammer on them.
Movie theaters are dead. Go look at Disney’s CEO’s interview on movie theaters last week or two weeks ago. The distributors were forced due to covid to pivot to a direct-to-consumer model and it’s working. Every single distributer company has their own app that was launched over the past two-years. The streaming wars are in full force. I don’t know how a low-end movie theater re-invents itself. What’s the value-add? There’s still likely a market for an I-PIC (upscale) and IMAX which have some differentiators that focus on experience and have a niche market that’s hard to replicate in your living room.
Will take some time to allow fans back at 100% capacity into sport and theater venues. But it will happen. They are already letting fans into college basketball games again.
We are talking about Illinois not Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, etc. High School players in Illinois are playing with masks on during the game while on the court. That’s insane.
Just have to get through the next 2 months.
Until schools are fully re-open the “re-opening” debate is largely moot. Yes, a short-term spike likely occurs but how big and for how long is important. Right now the size and length don’t look favorable.
“We’ll be wearing masks for a LONG time however. In Asia, they wear them every winter. Could be the new norm”
We don’t live in Asia. I thought the left rejected “fascism” and “totalitarianism” this past November but strangely embraces China’s covid policies. There will be a percentage of the population that wears masks during certain times of the year or always for the few years. The majority are ditching their masks come mid-summer when the headlines are “anyone who wants a vaccine can get one” (unless you are <16). Good luck getting re-elected in Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, etc. keeping mask mandates through the summer and into fall.
https://blockclubchicago.org/2021/03/04/too-early-to-tell-about-full-time-fall-schooling-in-chicago-but-students-could-start-before-labor-day/
“Helmethofer, can’t believe you’re still living the hoax fantasy even after 525,000 dead and life expectancy of entire country down by 1 year. Why are you in denial?”
Putting aside the politics and conspiracy theories the reason we have 525K dead from Covid is due to how fat and morbidly obese are country is. Even CNN writes articles on the “science” of obesity and covid death.
Since the Covid death rate in the US is 10x higher due to our morbid obesity that never gets addressed (big is beautiful bull crap) if we were a non-deep fried Twinkie on a stick eating country we would have ~50K dead.
“The team examined mortality data from Johns Hopkins University (JHU) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and found that of 2.5 million Covid-19 deaths reported by the end of February, 2.2 million were in countries where more than half the population is overweight.”
For perspective, pre-covid 8K people died a day in the US. What are the top reasons people die – Heart Disease. What causes heart disease?
Diabetes, high blood pressure, clogged arteries, etc. How do people do this to themselves…. Eating deep fried Twinkies on a stick and “big is beautiful” propaganda (it’s normal when you look down and maybe only see your toes) instead of saying hey this isn’t healthy and you are lowering your life expectancy by x number of years because of your awful unhealthy lifestyle and are more susceptible to negative outcomes from viruses
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/health/obesity-covid-death-rate-intl/index.html
“A strict national mask mandate would have gone really far to control transmission too. But we never had that.”
A strict national mask mandate is UNCONSTITUTIONAL. States have police powers. I don’t know how many times I have to point this out. Biden even said that when he was asked on the campaign trail. That’s why a national mask mandate only applies to Federal Lands per Biden’s EO. C’mon Sabrina. Stop spewing MSDNC talking points from 9 months ago.
Wrigley and Comiskey will be allowed to have fans on opening day at 20% capacity:
https://wgntv.com/sports/mayor-lightfoot-announces-fans-up-to-20-percent-capacity-in-chicago-ballparks-for-opening-day/
CDC sez vaccinated people can gather indoors without masks or social distancing:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/08/vaccinated-people-cdc-guidance/
“Half of this country’s adults spent most of 2020 complaining about shutdowns and masks and instead hyping survival rates and goofy treatments they saw on YouTube. ”
That’s not true. Yes a percentage did 10%? maybe 20%? I’ll give you up to 30% even. Half? No. This is the ignorant thinking that continues to happen on the left. It’s part of why I vote 3rd party at the presidential level the left always wants to group a small percentage of people being idiots as representative of an entire group just to score political points. No polling showed half the country or 100% of republicans complaining about shutdowns, masks, and supporting American Frontline Doctors. This is the same small minded thinking that the Trumpist crowd has on most issues as well – The Dems are all socialists…. give me a break.
“CDC sez vaccinated people can gather indoors without masks or social distancing”
Yep. Not surprising. That’s why come mid-summer the headlines of “anyone who wants a vaccine (unless you are under 16) can get one” within a month from that date mask mandates will be done in every state.
If every state surrounding Illinois repeals or doesn’t extend their mask mandate once it expires JB will forced to as well. I think Illinois currently expires in June (also remember the State doesn’t enforce the mandate some municipalities do) and JB has been mum on what he is going to do.
JB is up for re-election next year. The only political play is to say the State wont extend the guidance of the mandate but will allow county, local health departments and private business to. This is the only political play he has on masks to appease everyone in the state.
““The death toll from other causes – including suicide and drug overdose, is astronomical.”
Cite. please. No anecdata.”
I know N=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/student-suicides-nevada-coronavirus.html
Can find a recent article that I read that expanded past N=1
I really hope the various teachers unions get crushed after this, they are going to rank lower than politicians & pederasts
If masks actually worked, why didn’t they just give them to prisoners instead of releasing them from prison?
I really hope the various teachers unions get crushed after this, they are going to rank lower than politicians & pederasts
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-on-reopening-schools-are-all-over-the-map/
Madeline
IMO K-6 is much different than K-12, so I think the polling may be skewed
Poll is also about 3 weeks old, Things like this arent going to improve how Teacher Unions are viewed – https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2021/03/08/la-teachers-warn-of-possible-strike-if-lausd-returns-to-class-in-april/
I dont have any issues about individual teachers that are at risk, caring for someone at risk, etc but the wholesale unwillingness to do in class is absurd
“JB is up for re-election next year. The only political play is to say the State wont extend the guidance of the mandate but will allow county, local health departments and private business to. This is the only political play he has on masks to appease everyone in the state.”
Private business ALREADY decides. They will do whatever they want to do. No state is telling Walmart, Target, Whole Foods what will happen in their stores.
They want to keep their workers as safe as possible.
“CDC sez vaccinated people can gather indoors without masks or social distancing:”
Fantastic. But only among those they have a “bubble” with. Still doesn’t say they can gather with strangers in public places.
Hopefully when we get 70%+ vaccinated that we can go maskless everywhere.
“Wrigley and Comiskey will be allowed to have fans on opening day at 20% capacity:”
Great news.
They cities are about to be unleashed. Anyone who bet against them will look like fools.
If you haven’t locked in your apartment deal, better hurry. It will be too late by May.
“A strict national mask mandate is UNCONSTITUTIONAL.”
Trump could have put the mask mandate on all airplanes, Amtrak etc. Could have required it in all federal buildings, including courthouses and federal parks.
But he did NOTHING.
Biden had to do it in January, but, obviously, too late by then.
Leadership from the Federal government would have made 100% difference.
If we would have had a strict mask mandate right away, thousands of lives would have been saved. Instead we have this nonsense of “freedom” and the burning of masks, which is still going on.
So sad.
“Putting aside the politics and conspiracy theories the reason we have 525K dead from Covid is due to how fat and morbidly obese are country is.”
Stop it WP. Just go away.
Tired of this discussion.
COVID is real. It’s not a hoax. It has killed millions worldwide. Doesn’t matter what country or race you are. Doesn’t matter your age.
Move on. Quit trying to make “excuses” for America’s failure.
Other countries didn’t fail like we did. But hey, at least we got rid of Trump. Poor Brazil still has its incompetent leadership.
@ Madeline – I would look at the underlying data of that survey it looks skewed to the West Coast specifically California.
“Should Teachers Have to Teach In Person”
52% of people from the West said no whereas no other region topped 40%. The Northeast, Midwest, and South supported/opposed by 35%/38%, 41%/36%, and 40%/40% margins. Much closer than the 32%/52% who supported/opposed re-opening in the west. The rest said not sure. Those are the ultimate deciders.
“5. Teachers Union Protests” –
40%/19% strongly support vs strongly oppose in the west compared to 28%/18%, 28%/22%, 29%/21% in the NE, MW, and South.
The Telling one:
“Job Approval of Teachers Unions in Community”
29%/12% strongly approve instead of strongly disapprove of Teachers Unions in the West compared to 12%/20% in the MW, and 14%/41% in the South. The NE wasn’t asked this question. Yikes teachers unions are not getting good reviews in the flyovers.
Further, support for keeping schools closed and teachers unions decreases with age. The <30 years olds who are spotty with voting are much more supportive of the restrictions and unions compared to the regular 60+ year olds. Also, money more income the more you want schools re-opened.
https://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/athena/files/2021/02/08/60216b13c5b6d78d4448bcaa.pdf
“Private business ALREADY decides. They will do whatever they want to do. No state is telling Walmart, Target, Whole Foods what will happen in their stores.”
Really?
You just keep on doubling down on dumb
“key word “some”. Of course it’s not going down from where we were last summer but it’s not going to be at pre-covid levels for years. is it 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% or 90% of pre-covid levels this summer? I think we struggle getting much higher than 50% this year.”
Wrong.
You are going to look like a fool in, oh, about 60 days. Maybe even sooner.
The economy is going to explode. Airlines reporting today that they have added an additional 41% capacity for summer flights as demand is already surging. Hotels, resorts, theme parks, sporting events will all see the same.
Americans have a ton of cash waiting on the sidelines. They’re tired of being couped up. By May, everyone will have the vaccine.
What do you think is going to happen to the cities?
It’s going to be nuts. I’m happy for the hospitality companies. But if you haven’t already booked your hotel room, good luck. They are selling out and the prices are skyhigh. lol.
International travel probably won’t really reopen until 2022, other than Mexico, which remains open.
“COVID is real. It’s not a hoax. It has killed millions worldwide. Doesn’t matter what country or race you are. Doesn’t matter your age.”
It actually does matter what country and your age is definitely a determinant. The data clearly shows that. I thought you believed in science and truth. I guess not.
I never said it was a hoax. Obviously it isn’t. Looking at actual data to see why its so bad here compared to others makes sense when you look at obesity rates of Japan vs. the US and that’s what Johns Hopkins studied and CNN reported.
Read the article before your next drive-by.
“Move on. Quit trying to make “excuses” for America’s failure.”
I’m not making excuses for Americas obesity epidemic which has been well documented and studied for decades. That’s why Supersize-Me was such a revealing documentary…. The only people that make excuses for the obesity epidemic in this country are people that ignore the epidemic to begin with like you.
“The economy is going to explode. Airlines reporting today that they have added an additional 41% capacity for summer flights as demand is already surging. Hotels, resorts, theme parks, sporting events will all see the same.”
Then why are we throwing bailout money at Airlines and Hotels? Chicago was overbuilt on hotels pre-covid. Go read Marcus Corporations annual report in February 2020 (pre-covid). Some of the hotels in Chicago were destined to underperform and potentially fail now some of them will inevitably fail. You still have 10+ million out of work today that weren’t pre-covid. You still have no convention business which isn’t returning until fall? The large conventions at McCormick Place the real moneymakers aren’t putting a show on at 20% or 40% capacity. 75% maybe. Some of those conventions will move from annual to bi-annual since you can zoom in the off years and companies are still trying to save money.
“Trump could have put the mask mandate on all airplanes, Amtrak etc. Could have required it in all federal buildings, including courthouses and federal parks.
But he did NOTHING.”
Let’s look at the facts in February, March, and early April. Fauci said masks don’t work until changing his tune saying masks do would around Mid-April because he didn’t want us hoarding masks from frontline workers. The “noble lie” cost people their lives.
So masking was encouraged around mid-april and required by May 1 (in Illinois) and around the country. Yes, Trump should have required it too and it would have saved some lives but it wouldn’t have been a game changer. If so, Europe would have been out of their mess long ago. They locked down so much harder than we did and didn’t have the politicization of Covid like we did.
Federal Buildings and Courthouses were already closed before Fauci said wear a mask.
Airlines required masking over the summer.
Federal Parks – There’s no documented cases of people getting covid from being outside
Amtrak – Who the heck has ridden Amtrak over the past year?
Lets see what the MTA said about mask usage in September – “Mask Usage Remains High at Above 90% Across Subways, Buses, LIRR and Metro-North”
Wow it’s like if you give people information on how to protect themselves upfront they will actually listen to the public health officials so long as they aren’t gaslighting the public.
Yet, even with the very high utilization there was a huge surge in the fall/early winter. I don’t think MTA riders stopped masking around the holidays…. and yes I do know the Federal Government doesn’t regulate the MTA. The point being public transportation across the country probably has similar mask usage rates regardless of State/Locality.
I know its convenient and easy to make it a Trump/Biden thing but both can easily be true that (i) Trump’s messaging and decision making was not good on a very simple concepts like masks and (ii) even if he followed your suggestions it was probably too late to stop the spread when federal health officials decided to tell us the truth on masking since the virus was pervasive everywhere for at least 2 – 3 months already and masking wasn’t yet publicized by the health officials.
https://www.mta.info/press-release/mta-headquarters/mta-announces-50-fine-refusal-wear-mask-public-transit-takes-effect#:~:text=Additionally%2C%20the%20MTA%20launched%20a,the%20spread%20of%20COVID%2D19.
“I know N=1”
Teen suicide already was rising rapidly, pre-covid. see, eg:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/teen-suicides-increasing-at-alarming-pace-outstripping-all-other-age-groups/2019/10/16/e24194c6-f04a-11e9-8693-f487e46784aa_story.html
Approx 100k HS kids in LV. 18 is certainly an upward departure, but is not “astronomical”, even w/o adjusting for the younger kids.
These ‘trend’ pieces from the NYT are almost always anecdata-based crap, whatever the ‘trend’. Remember the wood-burning fireplace trend? The burgeoning trend of Ohio Nazis?
“If you haven’t locked in your apartment deal, better hurry. It will be too late by May.”
Because 8K people can go to Wrigley and Guaranteed rate come April? Good lord. Again lets see if we can get to 50% capacity by the 4th of July.
All Lori is doing is following the States guidelines which allows 20% capacity at outdoor events in whatever phase we are in.
Wake me up when JB finally announces next steps on re-opening and I’ll review and make a determination.
Fauci NEVER said “masks don’t work.”
They were worried that everyone would run out and try and get the N-95 masks when there weren’t enough masks for the medical personnel so they told people to hold off trying to get the medical grade masks.
STILL isn’t enough PPE for our medical personnel.
And that’s Trump’s fault.
At least Biden knows how to use the levers of government. He smartly ordered Merck to jump in and help with the JNJ vaccine as clearly JNJ didn’t have the capacity to do it themselves.
And now we’re rolling out nearly 3 million doses a day.
We’re on our way back.
“Private business ALREADY decides. They will do whatever they want to do. No state is telling Walmart, Target, Whole Foods what will happen in their store”
Stop lying Sabrina. Do you trust NPR because they say JB signed rules that allowed the fining of business back in August for not complying with mask mandate. Keep up.
https://www.wbez.org/stories/state-panel-approves-gov-jb-pritzkers-new-fines-for-businesses-that-dont-enforce-mask-mandate/fc827d62-a58a-4cf2-af8b-58e7355938bd
“Then why are we throwing bailout money at Airlines and Hotels?”
There is NO economy without the airlines. They are key lynchpins. Everywhere.
The airports have been crushed by the pandemic, along with the airlines themselves. Thousands laid off. Tax revenue plunged.
We’ve got to get it back.
Convention business will be the last thing to come back nationwide. Companies aren’t even having employees go back to the office until the fall. You think they’re going to order some employees to suddenly go to a big indoor building and mingle with others, some wearing masks and some not?
No way.
Goldman Sachs expects the US economy to do GDP of 7.7% this year and unemployment to drop to 4.1% by December.
Let’s make it happen. This aid package is the way to make it happen and help the hardest hit industries.
This was a government mandated recession. They have to provide the backstop to get everyone back up and running.
“Fauci NEVER said “masks don’t work.”
Let’s see CNN’s fact-checkers on this.
“While Fauci, along with several other US health leaders, initially advised people not to wear masks,”
“So when people say, ‘Well, why did you change your stance? And why are you emphasizing masks so much now when back then you didn’t — and in fact you even said you shouldn’t because there was a shortage of masks?’ Well the data now are very, very clear,” he said.
Certainly sounds like don’t where masks to me and everyday people. The context around the statement was given that they we didn’t know about asymptomatic spread yet. Again, he wasn’t recommending wearing them.
https://www.cnn.com/factsfirst/politics/factcheck_e58c20c6-8735-4022-a1f5-1580bc732c45
“I’m not making excuses for Americas obesity epidemic which has been well documented and studied for decades.”
Quit placing blame somewhere where it’s not. It’s a virus, man.
Why don’t you blame old people while you’re at it?
“How DARE you be old.”
“If only you weren’t OLD you would have lived.”
The government and society failed at protecting the most vulnerable.
““The economy is going to explode. Airlines reporting today that they have added an additional 41% capacity for summer flights as demand is already surging. Hotels, resorts, theme parks, sporting events will all see the same.”
41% of what? Covid lows? so they’ll go from 2 flights a day to 3? WOW!
You you suggesting that tourism is going to save the Hotels?
I’m not seeing much loosing of travel restrictions with a few of the F100 Companies I’ve worked with. YMMV
“Read the article before your next drive-by.”
I don’t care to read your drivel WP.
You’re one of those who says that COVID is real BUT if only you were young and healthy you would easily survive (oh wait- some of them have died too).
Our death toll is so horrific because of the horrible government response. The incompetence. The lack of coordination. The refusal to wear masks and stay home. The lack of leadership from the highest levels.
But, it’s not a surprise. Same thing happened in 1918, also with disastrous results.
“41% of what? Covid lows? so they’ll go from 2 flights a day to 3? WOW!”
Nope. Today’s levels.
They’re adding quickly as planes are filling up and they can see customers searching for tickets for 3 or 4 months out now (and booking them.) Prior to just 2 weeks ago, most Americans were booking tickets within 2 weeks of their flight because they didn’t trust that they’d be going anywhere.
Sentiment is changing quickly.
Same with hotels.
Online travel companies like Tripadvisor are reporting people are booking for months out, which they haven’t seen in a year.
Travel is going to explode. All signs are already there. Just look at Miami Beach. At 70% of capacity versus 50% just 2 months ago. No, it’s not at pre-covid levels which were about 83%. But it’s going in the right direction and the vaccine is only in 25% of adult arms.
America is back!
And all these businesses are going to have to hire quickly. The hotels cut 50% to 60% of staff. They are WAY understaffed to support even 70% capacity. Customer service is really going to suffer. Maintenance, cleaning etc as well.
“Certainly sounds like don’t where masks to me and everyday people.”
This “sounds like” don’t wear masks”????
LMFAO.
No. It doesn’t “sound” like that. He said not to wear a medical mask because they KNEW there was a shortage and given the panic over toilet paper, they didn’t want to see the panic over medical grade masks too when our professionals didn’t have enough and they needed to be protected.
You can’t go back and say “gotcha” to everyone who was going off of the data as they had it then. Originally, they thought wearing a scarf over your face would be enough but later we found out that only stopped 5% of the virus and was basically worthless. You need at least a triple ply cotton mask to stop a decent amount of it.
Wearing it over just the mouth?
Yeah- we now know that that in ineffective as it can be spread, and caught, through the nose.
We’ve gotten so much more information about how this virus works, and how it can be spread, that it’s nothing like a year ago.
Where’s HD to talk about that stupid study he was harping about a year ago that promoted no restrictions and trying to get herd immunity that he was so CERTAIN was going to be correct?
Oh wait- we now have now learned it was WRONG.
“There is NO economy without the airlines. They are key lynchpins. Everywhere.”
What? It’s less than 4% of GDP which is the same as the oil and gas business that we are trying to phase out. The rise of zoom has certainly blunted the airlines industries relevance to the economy. This industry’s profit driver was the business class not the middle class going on their annual vacation which they can use a car to get to.
The GDP for airlines equals Argentina which has defaulted how many times on its debt since the turn of the century and a few times over the past 10 years. Wow that ended the world….
“https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/04/06/if-aviation-was-a-country-it-would-be-the-worlds-20th-largest-by-gdp/?sh=4cd058c9e5b5”
“Quit placing blame somewhere where it’s not. It’s a virus, man.”
Why do you deny science. Lets see the CDC’s report today. I mean the headline says it all “CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized for Covid were overweight or obese”
It’s not hard Sabrina. We have known this since the first report came out back in May on who went to the hospital and who didn’t.
Why are you a science denier Sabrina? Do you also believe Trump has been a Russian Agent since 1987?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html
“There is NO economy without the airlines. They are key lynchpins. Everywhere.”
It’s huge. We literally cannot operate the economy without them.
Ask manufacturers right now. They can’t even get key products on boats and trains. Have to fly it (at a premium) but they can’t manufacture without the parts.
You’d be surprised how many products are flown over from China as well.
And Hawaii isn’t surviving long, obviously. Hawaiian Holdings is one of the largest intra-island cargo carriers (in addition to passengers.)
The airlines are huge economic drivers- as are airports. Which is why the big infrastructure bill could be key to getting some new airports built.
“The government and society failed at protecting the most vulnerable.”
The State Governments failed at protecting the most vulnerable. States control nursing homes. Further the State of Illinois runs the VA homes. They couldn’t even get the right hand sanitizer that was effective against Covid. That’s how awful our State Government is. 33 people died. The States head of VA had to resign.
“Since the outbreak, the Department of Veterans’ Affairs has announced changes at the home. First, the staff was retrained on using masks. The home replaced its hand sanitizer after learning the brand they were using was not effective against Covid-19.”
https://abc7chicago.com/covid-deaths-lasalle-veterans-home-illinois-outbreak/8828729/
“Nope. Today’s levels.
They’re adding quickly as planes are filling up and they can see customers searching for tickets for 3 or 4 months out now (and booking them.) Prior to just 2 weeks ago, most Americans were booking tickets within 2 weeks of their flight because they didn’t trust that they’d be going anywhere.”
Announcing and actually flying are 2 separate things (Unless the .gov as part of the Stimulus is going to subsidize the airlines for flying at 30% capacity
People are booking because they are dirt cheap
“Travel is going to explode. All signs are already there. Just look at Miami Beach. At 70% of capacity versus 50% just 2 months ago. No, it’s not at pre-covid levels which were about 83%. But it’s going in the right direction and the vaccine is only in 25% of adult arms.”
Leisure travel is going to be back, yet you ignored business travel.
“Why do you deny science. Lets see the CDC’s report today. I mean the headline says it all “CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized for Covid were overweight or obese””
It’s a fucking virus that we have no immunity too (until now, thanks to science).
It’s killing old people. Young people. Obese people. Not obese people. Smokers. Non-smokers.
Doesn’t matter.
The virus doesn’t care. It looks for hosts.
Show some humanity man. Move on. The virus is here. We’re about to mostly defeat it (fingers crossed). Let’s pray science can come up with vaccine boosters for the various strains.
If only Trump had cared about science, but he didn’t. We’d be in a different place right now.
I know two people who died from COVID who got it at Trump’s last Wisconsin rally during the election campaign. So tragic. No one wearing masks. Standing out there shoulder to shoulder to wait for him to come speak for several hours. It was outdoors, but that didn’t stop the virus.
The virus doesn’t care.
“It’s huge. We literally cannot operate the economy without them.
Ask manufacturers right now. They can’t even get key products on boats and trains. Have to fly it (at a premium) but they can’t manufacture without the parts.”
LOL – you’re conflating freight with passenger traffic
Why not say Cruise ships are HAWT because the container fleet is balcklogged
Day drinking doesnt suit you
“Leisure travel is going to be back, yet you ignored business travel.”
Business travel?
What’s that?
Why do you think we’re giving aid to the airlines?
No business nor international travel (which is mostly business as well.) We all know how the airlines make money. It’s selling the $3,000 Chicago to London business class seat. Not the $140 Southwest Chicago to New Orleans seat.
But you have to start with what you’ve got and that’s leisure.
Leisure will still get the hospitality industry off the floor.
Travel industry doesn’t expect 100% return to pre-covid levels until 2024.
“They can’t even get key products on boats and trains. Have to fly it (at a premium) but they can’t manufacture without the parts.”
Are we talking about the aviation industry, railroad industry, or maritime industry. You need to pick one. Not all three. Moving the goalposts.
“And Hawaii isn’t surviving long, obviously. Hawaiian Holdings is one of the largest intra-island cargo carriers (in addition to passengers.)”
Larry Ellison literally owns one of the main islands and employees 90% of the population. He even built the schools. Stop with the doom and gloom Sabrina.
Pretty sure Zuckerberg does as well. Amongst others.
“Hopefully when we get 70%+ vaccinated that we can go maskless everywhere.”
By then the South African variant will be widespread and the current vaccines are pretty ineffective against it. I don’t see us going back to normal any time soon. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/how-the-different-covid-vaccines-will-handle-variants.html
Duh WP.
I said airlines.
They can’t get product on the cheapest ways to transport (ships, trains, trucks) so they have to try and get it onto airplanes, if there’s even room. And that will mean triple or quadruple the price you would have had to pay the other way. But hey, you’re desperate to get the part so you’ll pay anything.
Larry Ellison????
Ba ha ha.
How many people you think live on Maui and how do you think they get cereal delivered to the grocery store and their amazon packages?
Hawaii would be shut down if Hawaiian Airlines was allowed to go under.
We CANNOT lose the airlines. Even for a minute. They are THAT important.
It’s also why most countries nationalize their airlines so they have some control over the industry. But we don’t, as you know. They are an “essential” industry.
“LOL – you’re conflating freight with passenger traffic”
No. The discussion was whether airlines are essential to the economy. They are. Without them you will die. You cannot compete. Your economy will grind to a halt.
Airlines fly passengers and cargo.
You must bail them out. You cannot afford to lose them. Any of them.
“The airlines are huge economic drivers- as are airports. Which is why the big infrastructure bill could be key to getting some new airports built.”
The airports should be privatized or at least public/private partnership It’s worked very well for Puerto Rico and its working great for LGA in New York with terminal 2.
Further, O’Hare can access the bond market to expand which they have continuously announced through Covid that they will continue to do their huge project. It just might be delayed a year or two.
A city needs an airport to compete on the global stage but does not need to own the airport as it doesn’t add much to city coffers. It’s revenue is used to pay down bonds and is re-invested into the airport not the city at large. Further, Cook County could start charging property taxes on it.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/sell-airports/615331/
“By then the South African variant will be widespread and the current vaccines are pretty ineffective against it. I don’t see us going back to normal any time soon.”
I don’t know Gary. I am optimistic. But the variants are the greatest risk.
I thought Pfizer and Moderna had boosters?
I know their vaccines work differently than the JNJ one and Oxford.
“It’s a fucking virus that we have no immunity too (until now, thanks to science).”
You realize more children died of the flu in 2019 (pre-covid) than they died of Covid since it started? Stop gaslightling. Stop lying Sabrina.
You know why fat people predominately die or are hospitalized from covid because being fat compromises your immune system. The CDC considers it “an underlying condition”.
The 99% of people that get Covid and don’t die guess what they had this thing called an effective immune system. Largely from not being fat. That’s science. It’s amazing what the body can do.
Gary- since you are here.
Do you have the February update yet?
Link to it when you do. I’ll be interested to see the numbers, especially with that record snow we had.
“No. The discussion was whether airlines are essential to the economy. They are. Without them you will die. You cannot compete. Your economy will grind to a halt.
Airlines fly passengers and cargo.
You must bail them out. You cannot afford to lose them. Any of them.”
If they’re so busy why do they need to be bailed out?
Granted I’m not a high falutin Finance type, but it sound like the airlines should continue with the cargo (Which doesnt need a bailout) and maybe scale back passenger service?
Problem solved
Now keep lying and moving the goal posts
“Our death toll is so horrific because of the horrible government response.”
Sabrina literally CNN is reporting on Johns Hokins (they are scientists) data saying countries who are largely fat drove the death toll of covid. The CDC under Biden is saying the same thing. Why is this so hard to understand.
Both can be true. I don’t get why this is so hard for you. The governments response not good but the key to the death toll and hospitalizations was having an unhealthy country to begin with. Not one State or Federal official has come out this entire time saying wear a mask, wash your hands oh and start dieting and exercising if you want to live.
Cigarettes’ alone kill 480K Americans per year pre-covid. Pretty close to the Covid deaths over the past year. Do you also blame the governments response to this? Or do you people who want to smoke cigarettes who obviously know the risks but are fine losing years of their life and dying early to get a nicotine hit? Why hasn’t Biden made cigarettes’ illegal if the goal is to save lives? This should be a day one order. I’m outraged – snark intended.
“https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm#:~:text=Cigarette%20smoking%20is%20responsible%20for,or%201%2C300%20deaths%20every%20day.”
Homedelete,
“Mask mandates ‘decreases’ Covid by 0.5-1.5 percent, with 5 percent margin of error…”
Anon beat me to pointing out that this is a decrease in the growth rate but I’ll also point out that this was a DAILY growth rate so there is a serious compounding effect.
Also, the effectiveness of a mask mandate should not be confused with the effectiveness of masks. You could have a state with no mandate where 90% of the people wear masks and another state with a mandate where only 80% of the people where masks.
“I know a guy who thinks he caught it breathing in air (while wearing a mask, of course) in the hallways of his condo building, even though he rarely left his house.”
I would assume that you would know that we should be skeptical of a sentence that starts with “I know a guy who thinks”
“Except FL, despite old and obese people, by staying open, they spread the virus out instead of concentrating it, resulting in overall less infections.”
This is one of those statements that sorta makes sense if you don’t think about it too long. Exactly how does this “spreading out” strategy work?
Back to real estate. I posted my February update this morning. Closings up 10.6%, all driven by condo growth. IAR will report 8.7%. So the growth rate is slowing down a bit but that’s still pretty high. Contract activity still strong.
And single family inventory is just stupid low. Condo inventory not that high either.
https://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2021/03/chicago-real-estate-market-update-sales-up-again-inventory-ridiculously-low/
“And single family inventory is just stupid low.”
CNBC was reporting that national listings are down 200K+ from the first two months last year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/spring-housing-market-just-lost-more-than-200000-new-listings.html
“Airlines reporting today that they have added an additional 41% capacity for summer flights as demand is already surging.
Per Forbes: For the seven days ending February 28, travel agencies sold 58.9% fewer airline tickets than for the same period in 2019. By comparison, the transaction count three weeks earlier was off 66.9% from 2019. In other words, the gap closed by about 8% in just three weeks.
Hotels, resorts, theme parks, sporting events will all see the same.
This one isn’t true. For now, the good news hasn’t yet reached hotels. “And, really fascinating, you don’t actually see that same level of acceleration with lodging,” said Meyer. “It’s showing up in airfare but not lodging.”
That leads travel analysts to one obvious conclusion. “People are booking trips, they are traveling, but maybe to see family at the moment rather than necessarily to go out and take vacations,” said Meyer.
Having to fact-check the lies you spew on your own site is starting to get exhausting.
Further, the CDC recommendations today are disappointing for the industry.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2021/03/07/vaccinated-seniors-are-scooping-up-plane-tickets-heres-where-theyre-going/?sh=1fbf44123d21
“Travel is going to explode. All signs are already there. Just look at Miami Beach. At 70% of capacity versus 50% just 2 months ago. ”
Yawn. It’s spring break currently. Lets see if budges above 70% in May/June/July. Everyone always wants to be in Miami over the summer months compared to spring/winter. This could very well be the peak for Miami hotel occupancy until the fall or next year.
Lets see work travel trends. The Executive Director of Metra is lowering ridership forecasts for 2020.
“Derwinski said he hopes Metra will be back to 40 percent of normal ridership by the end of the year. That’s short of the 50 percent the agency once hoped for,”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/metra-landlords-join-forces-come-back-downtown-push
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/cook-county-registers-record-number-of-opioid-deaths-in-2020/2406499/
Cook County reported more gun and opioid deaths in 2020 than any other year on record, officials said Friday.
The Cook County medical examiner’s office announced it handled a total of 970 homicides, 1,599 opioid deaths and 8,192 COVID-19 related deaths in 2020.
Guns were involved in 875 of the homicides, breaking the previous record of 838 set in 1994, the medical examiner’s office said.
“By then the South African variant will be widespread and the current vaccines are pretty ineffective against it. I don’t see us going back to normal any time soon.”
You love the covid fear mongering!
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm?s_cid=mm7010e3_w
You can read the study. It’s hardly convincing.
I follow the science, I really do. Give me a 5%, or 10% or 50% reduction in cases, or like with the vaccine, a reduction in the severity of CV in 95% of the cases. That’s convincing.
You see, I was a believer in masks at first. I really was. It makes sense. Wear a mask, stop particles from floating around. But sometimes seemingly common sense is wrong. The virus is small enough to pass through cloth masks, they are too hard to wear properly, and they create pressure which shoots out air.
The only mask that doesn’t fog my glasses – and I’ve tried dozens – is my P100 respirator.
As the science became clearer that they were, for all practical purposes, ineffective, and the negatives outweigh the positives, I’ve changed my position on masks. I only believe that properly worn N95 masks, or greater, have any effect, based upon the science.
“During March 1–December 31, 2020, state-issued mask mandates applied in 2,313 (73.6%) of the 3,142 U.S. counties. Mask mandates were associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease (p = 0.02) in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, and 1.8 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all) (Table 1) (Figure). Mask mandates were associated with a 0.7 percentage point decrease (p = 0.03) in daily COVID-19 death growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.0, 1.4, 1.6, and 1.9 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all). Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period."
Talk about hd burying the lead:
“…Cook County reported more gun and opioid deaths in 2020 than any other year on record, officials said Friday.”
I suggest it should say “The Cook County medical examiner’s office announced it handled more than 8 times as many Covid deaths as homicides, and more than 5 times as many Covid deaths as opioid deaths in 2020 after handling zero Covid related deaths in previous 10+ years.”
But I’m guessing that version doesn’t assist hd’s incompetent fat orange-skinned idol
“But I’m guessing that version doesn’t assist hd’s incompetent fat orange-skinned idol”
—————–
Not to mention the fact that you cannot mention mortality rates without mentioning infection rates.
If HD and his ilk want to state that the old and obese don’t deserve to factor into virus responses, that is his right. I will thank him, however, to have the intellectual honesty of stating those conditions explicitly so that they can be discussed on their merits.
A lie by omission is still a lie.
“Facts are that religious people are far less likely than liberal urban drunks and homosexuals to be passing on the virus to others. ”
Can you please share those facts with us? I’ve heard plenty of stories of the virus going viral in churches.
Homedelete: “You can read the study. It’s hardly convincing. ”
Yeah, I skimmed it earlier and addressed it. The conclusion of the study is that mask mandates work. As I said, a 1.8% drop in the DAILY growth rate can be significant.
“And single family inventory is just stupid low. Condo inventory not that high either.”
Thanks for posting the link Gary.
You can tell it’s just WAY too low. There is nothing on the market in some neighborhoods. Really difficult for buyers.
It’s going to push prices up. Supply and demand.
Interesting that condos drove February. But with so few SFHs on the market, how can it be those?
The February contract activity being up double digits is also telling. Should get those closings in the next few months.
February was another record month across a bunch of categories, even with the cold and snow.
I’m surprised at how low the condo inventory is. Imagine if some of the downtown condos were absorbed. In the neighborhoods it’s got to be under 3 months now.
I’m glad to see you’re buying into the bullish thesis now Gary. We’ll see over the next few months, and if the higher mortgage rates cool things.
But we really need more inventory. Lack of inventory will eventually hold back sales growth, although prices should rise.
“ But we really need more inventory. Lack of inventory will eventually hold back sales growth, although prices should rise.”
Why hasn’t it yet?
You’ve been prattling on and and about record sales and low inventory and there’s been limited appreciation (less any significant capital improvements)
Gary
Are you seeing any pressure on pricing? (Other than the flawed mean/median price index)
Johnc,
I had to read your comment three times because it made no sense. I wasn’t even sure if it was meant for this thread because it was such a non-sequitur, that I’m not sure what you’re even talking about.
But since you’re so concerned about the old and obese, as am I, we can both agree that the old and obese the most important groups that deserve to factor into virus response!!
Like, let’s start with not shipping infected elderly back into nursing homes! That alone killed hundreds of thousands of people across the country.
In Illinois alone, 18,491 of the 20,767 deaths were people aged 60 and older. 10,033 of those 18,491 were over 80 years old. 48% of all deaths in the state were linked to nursing homes. Let’s start putting 90% of our policy directives into this category.
Next we can focus on obesity. This is an area where our elected leaders have failed miserably, starting with JB Pritzer, who should have been exercising outside of Capital Building everyday in front of the cameras, trying to lose four or five stones, encouraging everyone else to do the same. Instead, he probably gained quite a bit and his BMI is likely over 40 or 45.
Anecdata: Friends put their townhouse on the market Friday and they had 5 offers by Sunday. All but one over ask.
“1,599 opioid deaths and 8,192 COVID-19 related deaths in 2020”
And in 2019, 1,277 and 0, respectively. For increases of 25% and [incalculable]%.
Yes, homicides up from 675 to 970–which you cannot separate the influence of the rioting and lawlessness around the Floyd protests from COVID in ascertaining blame–and it’s only ~5.5% more than in 2016, so it’s not an immense increase in recent historical terms.
Does this stuff work with juries?
“I had to read your comment three times because it made no sense.”
———————
Try reading for comprehension.
“Are you seeing any pressure on pricing? (Other than the flawed mean/median price index)”
Well, looking at the Case Shiller index we do see YOY price gains growing, though Chicago is in the bottom of the pack of major metro areas.
Anecdotally I’ve been running into competitive bidding situations a lot at the higher end. Recently in Kenwood a couple of $2 MM+ homes went in a multiple bid situation – one over list most likely after being on the market 5 days. Yet, you can find plenty of homes that aren’t selling. I check the sale/ list ratio periodically but that is flawed as well and I don’t see a noticeable pattern.
““Mask mandates ‘decreases’ Covid by 0.5-1.5 percent, with 5 percent margin of error…”
Anon beat me to pointing out that this is a decrease in the growth rate but I’ll also point out that this was a DAILY growth rate so there is a serious compounding effect.”
Incorrect gary
It’s not exponential, the CDC study states that 20 days in, .5% decrease is cases. (thats 5/1000 for you math retarded folks) 40 days in 1.1 percent, 60 days in 1.5 and by 100 days in, 1.8. It’s closer to asymptotic to around 2% of effectiveness somewhere around 6 months. That’s it.
If everyone wore masks everywhere, for 6 months, the case/death count would be roughly 2% lower. That’s it, that’s what it says.
and sabrina saying ““It’s a fucking virus that we have no immunity too (until now, thanks to science).””
Is the most dangerous and STUPID comment I have read here… your IMMUNE system fights things off all the time and most people have fought the virus off naturally just fine since their initial viral load exposure was limited. Millions, if not billions of people have fought off the virus this way, like humans have done for millenia, and will continue to do so in the future. Injecting yourself with dangerous unproven vaccines is not the only way to have immunity to this LOL you fucking idiot.
“the CDC study states that 20 days in, .5% decrease is cases”
Where does it say that?
It says a 0.5 *percentage point* decrease in *growth rate*:
“Mask mandates were associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease [] in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 1–20 days after implementation[.]”
A percentage point decrease is not the same as a percent decrease.
What you wrote does not make any sense from HD’s quoted language.
Are you reading something else?
For you “reading retard folks”:
A percentage point is the simple numerical difference between two percentages.
A percentage is a number or ratio expressed as a fraction of 100.
https://thewritingbusiness.com/the-difference-between-percentages-and-percentage-points/
“I’m glad to see you’re buying into the bullish thesis now Gary. We’ll see over the next few months, and if the higher mortgage rates cool things.”
Bullish thesis nationwide – Yes; suburbs of Illinois – some do some don’t. Bullish thesis in Chicago – Eh maybe at the higher end which is what the data points too.
“But we really need more inventory. Lack of inventory will eventually hold back sales growth, although prices should rise.”
This is where I have issues on the “bullish thesis”. This certainly seems to be more supply side then demand side when you look at case shiller and redfin data in Chicago compared to other metros. As Redfin pointed out only 31% of Chicago homes faced bidding wars which only increased from 26% pre-covid and skewed higher to the luxury end.
CNBC article says 200K fewer listings through the first two months of the year nationwide compared to last year. I’m curious what that figure looks like in Chicago, Chicago Metro, and Illinois. If/when that supply is added and we remain off the lows of mortgage interest rates at current or higher levels is demand able to keep up or does inventory increase and if inventory increases how much does it increase by.
“Friends put their townhouse on the market Friday and they had 5 offers by Sunday. All but one over ask.”
Where? Burbs or city?
Interesting politico article today looks like the Senate Banking & Housing Committee will are looking at the housing market. Certainly not a surprise but should keep an eye on it.
I would rather them figure out how to tackle building costs and potentially offering up more grant money to munis and localities with friendlier zoning rules than just throwing more money at down payment assistance.
The latter is what they will likely/unfortunately do since Washington is good at throwing money around and papering over problems instead of actually trying to solve the underlying issues.
I imagine there will be very little if any consideration of how Federal Reserve interest rate repression affects housing prices and creates barriers to first time homeowners. Or in a country where half don’t own stocks (mostly younger generations) and 35% don’t own a home (mostly younger generation) how interest rate repression inflates risky assets i.e. growth and speculative stocks which indirectly further inflates housing prices which puts homeownership out of reach for younger generations that don’t have the Bank of Mom and Dad in our tale of two cities economic system.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/08/soaring-home-prices-alarm-policymakers-474433
“I would rather them figure out how to tackle building costs and potentially offering up more grant money to munis and localities with friendlier zoning rules than just throwing more money at down payment assistance.”
Land cost assistance even better. Why have more manipulation of commodities markets? Work out some sort of limitation/recapture on future value of the dirt above the assisted cost at acquisition.
Downside of using “friendlier zoning rules” as a marker is that it further concentrates lower income people. Would have to structure it as an incentive for the municipality to implement zoning changes.
Where? Burbs or city?
City.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html
https://www.the-sun.com/news/2473079/covid-vaccinated-people-gather-without-masks/
Masks are here to stay, suckers! Told ya. Been already a year, and the tyrannical leftists don’t want to give up any of their pathetic nanny-power. Next will come all kinds of restrictions based on “science”-hoaxing based around climate-change and animal methane farting.
Helmethofer, so in your make believe land these tyrannical leftists want us all to wear masks just to exert their power? Why not make us wear lederhosen?
“Masks are here to stay, suckers!”
How many decades have you been wearing a seatbelt?
How long has smoking been banned on planes?
Yet, you hear no one talking about their “freedoms” or the “leftists” or anything with these regulations that promote public safety.
“Interesting politico article today looks like the Senate Banking & Housing Committee will are looking at the housing market.”
They can “look” all they want.
Simple supply and demand dynamics with a building industry that hasn’t been building enough housing in about 10 years up against the largest generation in US history now wanting to buy homes.
The home builders will step it up, but only so much they can do. And land prices near cities is expensive and that’s a huge part of the cost.
“Bullish thesis in Chicago – Eh maybe at the higher end which is what the data points too.”
Wrong. Chicago sales at highest in 14 years.
What do you want? An all-time high? THEN would you believe it’s hot in the city?
Will take a LOT more inventory to ever get us there because that’s 2005 or 2006 sales figures.
“This is where I have issues on the “bullish thesis”. This certainly seems to be more supply side then demand side when you look at case shiller and redfin data in Chicago compared to other metros. As Redfin pointed out only 31% of Chicago homes faced bidding wars which only increased from 26% pre-covid and skewed higher to the luxury end.”
Did you bother to read Gary’s blog post WP?
Probably not.
There was 1.5 months of single family home inventory in the city of Chicago. There was 3.5 months in condos.
Both are sellers markets.
There is NOTHING on the market. There will be multiple bids in popular neighborhoods and at certain price points.
Luxury is bullish on single family homes in certain neighborhoods, but there are way too many luxury condos. Until that inventory is absorbed, there will be no price pressures on luxury condos.
“Anecdata: Friends put their townhouse on the market Friday and they had 5 offers by Sunday. All but one over ask.”
Thanks for the update Madeline. Exciting for them. Glad it sold so fast.
But Gary would say that means they underpriced it and could have gotten more for it if only they had priced it correctly. (Sorry Gary- I couldn’t resist.)
Inventory is just too low and lots of buyers are looking. There’s going to be multiple offers on LOTS of properties this spring.
“Why hasn’t it yet?”
Multiple offers all spring, into the summer, will bring price appreciation.
What do you want? An all-time high? THEN would you believe it’s hot in the city?
Rising prices
“Why not make us wear lederhosen?”
*vegan* lederhosen.
“The home builders will step it up, but only so much they can do. And land prices near cities is expensive and that’s a huge part of the cost.”
The pandemic may have solved this. Secular shifts are continuing against demand around most city centers but will be more acute in/near large city centers (Chicago, New York, etc.) as hybrid and full WFH becomes the norm post-pandemic. People were less inclined to travel >30 minutes to and from work each day pre-pandemic.
If you only need to be in the office 2 – 3 days a week your radius expands on where you buy. You are now more comfortable with a 45 minute or hour+ commute each way especially if it means a nicer home or SFH on the city edges or burbs instead of a condo/townhome near the city center whose price is similar. Cheaper land prices and more options for developers. It will be interesting to see which pre-pandemic “sleepy” suburban towns turn into growth areas. Existing and future public transit investments along with their “main street” revitalization efforts will be key in these areas in attracting younger people earlier in their post-college life.
If you “never” have to work in the office again you still probably go in initially at a new company or new job within the company or if you are seasoned maybe still once or twice a month or quarter. So most people are probably within 2 hours of the main office or a satellite office.
This type of person has the choice of being employed by a Chicago company but living in Milwaukee with significantly lower cost of living while still living the city experience and having daily access to the Amtrak to get to the Chicago office on a 1.5 hour ride each way.
Land prices are in the process of being distributed more equally with more competition instead of just concentrated in a few areas driving up prices.
“How many decades have you been wearing a seatbelt?
How long has smoking been banned on planes?”
This is false equivalency. Every time you are in a car you can get in an accident. Every time someone lights up a cigarette everyone around that individual is subject to second hand smoke and increased chronic health conditions down the line.
A once in a century pandemic happens once in a century not every day. The same risk is not there.
What could become the norm is since the turn of the millennium once a decade there has been a new virus SARS/MERS/H1N1 which “could-be” as bad as what we have experienced during Covid this past year or Spanish Flu 100 years ago.
A quick reflex from public policy experts could be to require masks for say 60 days to provide public health experts a lead time in diagnosing the seriousness of the threat. If the threat is unfounded take the mask off. If the threat is founded you have potentially slowed and prevented spread for the first 60 days and the threat is now not as pervasive or systemic throughout the country making it easier to eradicate and go about normal business.
“Inventory is just too low and lots of buyers are looking. There’s going to be multiple offers on LOTS of properties this spring.”
As JohnnyU said what about rising prices? This is the determinant if the market is “hot” form mine and his perspective. Sure more homes are selling than a year ago. They are selling faster than a year ago. Some offers come in above ask through bidding wars but if you bought a home 5, 10, 15 years ago, list it today and it sells in a month but are getting 5% – 10% higher than what you originally paid that doesn’t sound like a hot market to me. Especially when comparing Chicago to the top 10 cities or median/average increases happening in the case shiller index.
The fundamentals of economics in a low supply high demand market are supposed to mean rising prices. In Q4 2020 Chicago’s housing market finally got back to peak 2006/2007 levels whereas most cities got back their in 2012 – 2015 and have doubled in price today from where they were in 06/07.
The why housing prices here stink is the Edgar Ramp that started to kick in circa 2015 and will continue through ~2030 at the City level and until ~2040 at the State level. This has zapped and will continue to zap home appreciation whether its property taxes doubling (regardless of home appreciation), water rates doubling (paying for pensions) which will double again along with gas bills as we are still dealing with civil war and centuries old infrastructure in this city. And then there’s the electric infrastructure which will continue to go up as we modernize the grid and continue to switch over from fossil fuels.
This circles back to the cost of land in the city. Its so expensive not necessarily because of intrinsic value but because the cost to hold undeveloped land is also enormous and continuing to increase i.e. property taxes and to a lesser extent the bureaucratic process of developing the land which adds longer times compared to other cities in the midwest which is further compounded by the high and increasing property taxes.
WP,
I don’t think this is some collapse of civilization causing people to flee the city for the countryside.
The evidence I’ve seen across the country is that people are fleeing the high cost city centers for suburban or exurban locations in the same geographic area, with some increased interstate moving.
Locally this is evident with the suburbs booming here. Even suburbs as far away as Gurnee are crazy right now. https://www.redfin.com/city/8179/IL/Gurnee/housing-market Prices up 25%, # of sales up 77% and days on market cut in half. The greater downtown zip codes are mostly in freefall, with fewer sales, longer marketing times and decreasing prices.
This seems to be the case across the country too, with residents fleeing San Francisco, for example, Santa Cruz, with prices up 18% in one year, or as you alluded to above, Sacramento, with prices up 23%. The problems of SF are well documented.
New York City has the same situation, with upstate and long island feasting off the dead carcass of the city itself. Seattle is the same way, with otherwise boring and sleep Tacoma suddenly becoming a hot spot with a median days on the market of 5. Yes, 5 days. Redfin gives it a 92 hotness score.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattle-shrinking-seattleites-moved-out-in-droves-in-2020-though-they-didnt-go-far/
“Seattle shrinking? Seattleites moved out in droves in 2020, though most didn’t go far ”
In all, 43,350 households requested moves into the city in 2020, and 69,432 moved out. That means the net migration out of the city was more than 26,000 households. In a city with about 351,000 households, that’s a big change, a potential decline of 7%. It’s how you get 12-weeks-free deals for apartments.
~~ there are some interesting pictorial maps showing the outflow out of Seattle into suburban and exurban areas which confirm what I’ve been saying above, and have been saying for a while
“A quick reflex from public policy experts could be to require masks for say 60 days to provide public health experts a lead time in diagnosing the seriousness of the threat. If the threat is unfounded take the mask off. If the threat is founded you have potentially slowed and prevented spread for the first 60 days and the threat is now not as pervasive or systemic throughout the country making it easier to eradicate and go about normal business.”
It’s blindingly obvious that masks have a marginal effect in slowing the spread of coronavirus, and they have become a form of virtue signaling to others. While walking my dogs in Lake County forest preserves, I often see people alone in the woods, on hikes, doublemasked, with no one around for hundreds of yards. I regularly see people alone in their cars wearing masks driving around town.
I had to travel downtown last week for business and virtually everyone on my short trek down Wabash street, Randolph and LaSalle streets were wearing masks, while walking alone, with only a random person here or there unmasked, usually a bum, or a construction worker were mask free.
We all know our politicians in Illinois will *never* give up the power to force people to wear masks. It allows them to instantly know who is with the regime and who is against it. JB will have us wearing masks for every uptick of seasonal illnesses, so everyone else can keep tally of who is compliant and who is a resistor to be cancelled. Soon enough they’ll be forcing us to wear masks for climate change, because we as humans are a source of CO2 pollution as we exhale carbon. They’ll convince us we are trapping co2 in our masks to save the environment. Yes, I’m exaggerating a little, but with 17 or 20 states now without mandates, and the rest clinging on to them for dear life, it’s obvious which authoritarian leaders intend to keep the power indefinitely, and which are not.
“The evidence I’ve seen across the country is that people are fleeing the high cost city centers for suburban or exurban locations in the same geographic area, with some increased interstate moving.”
This was the point of the post. Commuters can expand their radius with WFH.
“I don’t think this is some collapse of civilization causing people to flee the city for the countryside.”
I never said this. I also don’t agree with someone who characterizes it this way. The playing field is leveling between suburbs/exurbs/cities in a way we haven’t seen in a long time. The 2010’s were the rise of global cities akin to the 70’s being the rise of the suburbs. The 2020’s is ushering in the rise of a level playing field.
WP, you are correct, I misread your post, I quickly read living in Milwaukee but commuting to Chicago, and your mention of ‘sleepy’ towns, ie the countryside, without realizing you meant only suburbs 45-1 hour away, and not smaller cities outside of urban areas.
” In a city with about 351,000 households, that’s a big change, a potential decline of 7%. It’s how you get 12-weeks-free deals for apartments”
This is the change that likely happens in most global cities throughout the country. It will be a 5% – 10% population/household shift away from a global city center. On the surface it doesn’t sound like alot but it carries major implications.
If you think of Chicago, the only area that increased population over the past 10 years were the neighborhoods around the loop. That population growth is not happening in the 2020’s. Loop population doubled from 2000 – 2010 and increased another 30% from 2011 – 2020.
“A once in a century pandemic happens once in a century not every day. The same risk is not there. ”
—————————-
Except when the pandemic is happening and therefore a daily risk, like now.
Please factor in reality before you make statements.
Burnham Center sale set to be 2019’s priciest at $80M despite huge discount
July 29, 2019
“The Chicago-based development firm will join an unknown family office in paying about $80 million to acquire the 585,000-square-foot Burnham Center from Pennsylvania-based Alliance HSP, according to Crain’s. The seller had reportedly sought more than $100 million for the 105-year-old building at 111 West Washington Street when it hit the market in March.
Alliance HSP paid just under $95 million to buy the property in 2012, before splitting ownership of the 12-story building from the land underneath it. Its interest in the building was valued around $73 million, while Shidler Group, a Hawaii-based entity controlled by Alliance managing partner Jay Shidler, took ownership of the underlying land.
The landlord grew the building’s occupancy from 80 percent to 92 percent, in part due to a lease expansion by anchor tenant Grubhub, which now occupies more than 156,000 square feet in the complex.”
https://therealdeal.com/chicago/2019/07/29/burnham-center-sale-set-to-be-2019s-priciest-at-80m-despite-huge-discount/
https://www.111burnhamcenter.com/6th-floor-
Today, roughly 200,000 sq feet of office space, in a 585,000 sq foot building, at 111 W Washington, the Burnham Center, is currently available, for anyone interested…
6th Floor – 37,480 SF
4th Floor – 35,633 SF
5th Floor – 34,870 SF
Suite 1100 – 18,109 SF
Suite 450 – 14,037 SF
Suite 400 – 12,751 SF
Suite 425 – 8,845 SF
Suite 1410 – 6,396 SF
Suite 1331 – 3,969 SF
Suite 1051 – 2,885 SF
Suite 1000 – 2,880 SF
Suite 1060/1042 – 2,813 SF
Suite 1420 – 2,576 SF
Suite 1220 – 2,231 SF
Suite 1060 – 2,120 SF
Suite 1160 – 1,945 SF
Suite 1540 – 1,908 SF
Suite 1815 – 1,882 SF
Suite 1360 – 1,880 SF
Suite 1351 – 1,716 SF
Suite 1320 – 1,610 SF
Suite 1865 – 1,495 SF
Suite 902 – 1,413 SF
Suite 920 – 1,346 SF
Suite 1435 – 1,244 SF
Suite 940 – 1,209 SF
Suite 1230 – 952 SF
Suite 1260 – 900 SF
Suite 1440 – 860 SF
Suite 951 – 804 SF
Suite 1042 – 693 SF
Suite 1450 – 556 SF
Suite 1850 – 463 SF
Suite 1250 – 442 SF
Suite 917 – 412 SF
“This is the change that likely happens in most global cities throughout the country. It will be a 5% – 10% population/household shift away from a global city center. On the surface it doesn’t sound like alot but it carries major implications.”
+1
There are plenty of alternatives
The numbers are important, but IMO of bigger importance is the breakdown by quintile of those leaving. I think we’re going to be headed back towards a late 80’s/early-mid 90’s where you head into the city post college then skate in 3-5 years (married, etc)
“Except when the pandemic is happening and therefore a daily risk, like now.
Please factor in reality before you make statements.”
Missing the point of the statement. Please read the rest before commentating as this was about the future not the present. Pandemics have end dates. Viruses come and go. When this ends i.e. “anyone who can get a vaccine can” mask mandates will be done within two months after this statement becomes reality.
Mask mandates comes back temporarily when the next new SARS/MERS/H1N1/Covid bug is detected for a short period of time and are extended longer only IF it is determined the new virus is or has the potential to be as bad as Covid/Spanish Flu OR if the bug originates in the US/Mexico/Canada.
If/when the threat is determined to cause minimal risk i.e. death/hospitalizations or is regional in scope i.e. MERS/SARS with little chance of mass infection in the US mandates end.
“quickly read living in Milwaukee but commuting to Chicago, and your mention of ‘sleepy’ towns”
No worries. the “sleepy” I’m referencing would be a Highland Park, Deerfield, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Elmwood Park, Oak Lawn that have flat-lined population wise over the past 10+ years at around 50K or less people but are strategically located near population centers and/or have a “main street” already set-up.
Instead of an aging boomer empty nester population whose adult children fled to Chicago or another major city for 10+ years after college these towns can now compete for the recent college grads instead of waiting for them to hit 30 – 40 and settling down in the burbs with the husband/wife and kid(s). Most already have a “downtown” i.e. main street thoroughfare with restaurants and a bar or two but are not attractive to young single guys/girls in their mid 20’s – early 30’s since these establishments catered to boomers/kid friendly for the past decade or two.
If the Chamber of Commerce and city councils in these areas want their populations to grow they have an opportunity with WFH if they start a pivot in the businesses they want to attract and the housing availability/options that cater to a younger clientele instead of only a boomer or family population.
Look at what Naperville is now and what it was 20 years ago. A college grad in a WFH/Hybrid environment might choose to live in Naperville over Chicago post-covid especially if they want to pay down student loans quickly or buy a home in their 20’s. Can a Downers, Lisle, Wheaton, etc. capitalize on this as the 25 – 30 year old probably can’t afford Naperville housing prices but would like to be within a 15 – 30 minute uber or bus ride of Downtown Naperville.
Oak Park has the infrastructure and the main bar and restaurant street that caters to younger people but people might not want to take the Green Line from Oak Park to Chicago and back (~50 minutes door-to-door) 5 days a week pre-pandemic. They might be fine with it post-pandemic since they only have to do it 2 days now.
The Milwaukee angle becomes an option if you only need to come into an office one time a week or fewer. Very few will have or choose this option and expand their radius this far. This option is for the person that grew up on the border of Wisconsin or in Kenosha/Milwaukee and went to the University of Wisconsin for college but gets a job with a Chicago company post-graduation.
This person doesn’t need to meet new friends as pre-pandemic out of the 10 closest friends 5 get jobs in Chicago 1 moves out of region, 1 stays with their parents, and 3 get jobs in Milwaukee. For the first year you live in Chicago to get trained and maybe you only have to go into the office 1 or 2 times a week after 6 months or year 1. Might as well commute from Milwaukee and stay around your college buddies at this point. The only one that you don’t get to see frequently is the 1 person that moved out of the region.
“If the Chamber of Commerce and city councils in these areas want their populations to grow they have an opportunity with WFH if they start a pivot in the businesses they want to attract and the housing availability/options that cater to a younger clientele instead of only a boomer or family population.
Look at what Naperville is now and what it was 20 years ago. A college grad in a WFH/Hybrid environment might choose to live in Naperville over Chicago post-covid especially if they want to pay down student loans quickly or buy a home in their 20’s. Can a Downers, Lisle, Wheaton, etc. capitalize on this as the 25 – 30 year old probably can’t afford Naperville housing prices but would like to be within a 15 – 30 minute uber or bus ride of Downtown Naperville.”
I’d look at Elmhurst as a pretty good example of creating an atmosphere in a downtown (probably on par price wise w/ OP).
Most the the burbs w/ rail access could do something similar
“I’d look at Elmhurst as a pretty good example of creating an atmosphere in a downtown (probably on par price wise w/ OP).”
Forgot about Elmhurst which is a good example. Having Elmhurst college right there is a big positive as well. The students have 2 – 4 years in the town already, the colleges get recruiters from the Chicago companies to come to campus and recruit. Higher probability these graduates stay in Elmhurst post-college instead of moving to the city.
Higher probability these private colleges can grow their student populations in the future as well.
“It’s blindingly obvious that masks have a marginal effect in slowing the spread of coronavirus”
No it’s not. Even the CDC report you referenced does not prove this (as we have pointed out) and the report recommendation is to use mask mandates.
“No it’s not. Even the CDC report you referenced does not prove this (as we have pointed out) and the report recommendation is to use mask mandates.”
Two people can look at the same set of facts and come to two different conclusions.
The CDC report shows that there is a marginal effect on cases and deaths after months. The low end of the single digits. Close to 0% than 10%. The reduction was statistically significant, but the reduction was minimal.
And “the models did not control for other policies that might affect case and death rates, including other types of business closures, physical distancing recommendations, policies issued by localities, and variances granted by states to certain counties if variances were not made publicly available. Second, compliance with and enforcement of policies were not measured. Finally, the analysis did not differentiate between indoor and outdoor dining, adequacy of ventilation, and adherence to physical distancing and occupancy requirements.”
The last sentence even admits that the model found little impact, if you read between the lines, “Community mitigation policies, such as state-issued mask mandates and prohibition of on-premises restaurant dining, have the potential to slow the spread of COVID-19, especially if implemented with other public health strategies (1,10).”
Have the potential, no “actually reduced” but especially when combined with other public health strategies.
I wish cloth masks worked but it appears they don’t, and if they do, masks alone aren’t enough to really make any difference.
“If/when the threat is determined to cause minimal risk i.e. death/hospitalizations or is regional in scope i.e. MERS/SARS with little chance of mass infection in the US mandates end.”
—————————–
Agreed, but until the pandemic is over, mandating masks is like mandating seat belts. The comment I was responding to stated that you could not compare the two. That is wrong. While the pandemic is going on, the two mandates (mask/seat belts) are directly comparable.
“Agreed, but until the pandemic is over, mandating masks is like mandating seat belts. The comment I was responding to stated that you could not compare the two.”
That’s because you can’t compare the two. In general people that own cars don’t stop owning cars and thus always need to wear a seatbelt to comply with the law and prevent themselves from flying out of a window in the event of an accident which could happen anytime they get behind the wheel.
Per CDC guidelines once vaccinated you can hang around a small amount of vaccinated people without masks today even though the pandemic isn’t over i.e. masks mandates are gone two months after headlines of “anyone who wants a vaccine can get one”.
Even though two months after that announcement the world will still have a Covid pandemic on its hands as rich nations ordered and distributed the majority of their vaccines for their population to be injected. Non-Rich countries will still be in a pandemic and thus the US will/should maintain travel restrictions with these countries.
“Agreed, but until the pandemic is over, mandating masks is like mandating seat belts”
Further, Texas specifically is the guinea pig. All restrictions have been lifted including mask mandates. They announced today 100% capacity opening day for the Texas Rangers. In two months if there isn’t a material spike in cases/hospitalizations throughout the metro areas of Dallas/Houston/San Antonio etc. there is going to big a huge push by the convention/hospitality/and all service industry trade associations in every state regardless of political leaning saying hey these restrictions are not needed anymore even though we are technically still in a pandemic.
There are other states Connecticut and Maryland this week which got rid of all restrictions except the mask mandate. This mandate is the last thing that will be dropped in most states but again in two months they can look at Texas and evaluate how their own states have done. If they are doing well it will be dropped as a mandate even though we are still in a pandemic.
Why are these restrictions being rolled back? The vaccine which we have and is being distributed and injected.
hd posted more bs “….even admits that the model found little impact, if you read between the lines, “Community mitigation policies, such as state-issued mask mandates and prohibition of on-premises restaurant dining, have the potential to slow the spread of COVID-19, especially if implemented with other public health strategies (1,10).”
I believe hd means “ignore the text as written and make up self-serving bs to support your political bias against mask mandates etc” when he states “if you read between lines”. The text is clear to people with adequate reading comprehension.
“… This mandate is the last thing that will be dropped in most states but again in two months they can look at Texas and evaluate how their own states have done. If they are doing well it will be dropped as a mandate even though we are still in a pandemic.
Why are these restrictions being rolled back? The vaccine which we have and is being distributed and injected.”
Yeah but TX has vaccinated less than 7% of its population (CDC says TX qualifies for 48th place in US) and has no reason other than political beliefs imho to drop mask mandates and other public health protections. I guess TX politicians believe their constituents answered yes to the question “do ya feel lucky?”
SB, I swear to god, I believe you’re my second ex-wife. Still stalking me, harassing my current wife, bothering me online, only posting to stalk me? Remember that order of protection?
As for Texas being the test case for no masks, that belies the science. There are 17 states with no masks and not much different between mask and no mask states.
The irony is that I wear a mask everywhere I go. Well, not outside by with my dogs in Cuba Marsh, but inside stores and stuff. But only properly fitting N95 masks; I have a couple P100 masks too. Because the science shows that they work.
But those worthless cloth or surgical masks that BMI50 forces us to wear? Nothing more than junk science and virtue signaling to show compliance.
“We all know our politicians in Illinois will *never* give up the power to force people to wear masks. It allows them to instantly know who is with the regime and who is against it.”
Very insightful comment.
What we have witnessed is a plan that is not at all scientific, and that ought to arouse universal indignation. We know, by the admission of those involved, that this pseudo-pandemic was planned for years, primarily by weakening national health systems and pandemic plans. We know that a very specific script was followed that was conceived in order to give the same response in every country and to streamline diagnoses, hospitalizations, treatments, and above all containment measures and the information being given to citizens on the global level. There is a directorate that continues to manage COVID-19 with the single purpose of forcibly imposing limitations on natural liberties, constitutional rights, free enterprise and work.
The problem is not COVID in itself, but the use of what has happened in order to accomplish the Great Reset that the World Economic Forum announced some time ago and that today is being implemented point by point, with the intention of making social changes inevitable that would otherwise be rejected and condemned by the majority of the population.
Polling is starting to be released on when re-opening and restrictions should be removed.
Over 50% of republicans and independents favor removal once 50% of the local population is vaccinated (add up those who favor right now + 25% vaccinated + 50% vaccinate).
Over 50% of democrats favor removal once you get to 75% vaccinated.
Based on our current vaccination rate and Fauci’s previous statements that 75% of the country will be fully vaccinated by September. By Labor Day is when we will release restrictions in Illinois.
That date is further bolstered today by De Blasio saying every New Yorker will be eligible to get the vaccine by end of Spring (June 22) with May being the earliest that eligibility would be totally opened up.
Likely takes at least a month maybe two months to cycle through providing everyone’s first shot (guessing) and another two months to get through the second shot. Theoretically everyone >16 in NYC should have both doses of the shot by Labor Day at the earliest or Halloween at the latest.
Given polling shows Dems are comfortable rolling restrictions back at 75% of the population vaccinated and Fauci’s previous comments supporting this number you can likely chop a month or two off which puts you lifting these restrictions in NYC between the 4th of July and Labor Day. This date would be in line with Mendoza’s comments earlier in the week about summer/fall for festivals and conventions.
I imagine “swing states” lift restrictions by Memorial Day assuming Texas, Connecticut, and Maryland, etc. don’t have outbreaks.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-plurality-say-covid-19-restrictions-should-be-lifted-when-3-in-4-vaccinated/ar-BB1esGds?ocid=ientp
Here we go – The Convention Unions and Trade Show Reps put the screws on Pritzker this past week or two. Pritzker announcing that conventions coming back by mid-july. Will be interested to see what the capacity limits will be initially.
Deputy Gov Hynes:
“It’s our intention to allow and plan for conventions at McCormick Place and other locales during the summer, and certainly by July, which is when the Chicago Auto Show will occur.”
“We have faith we can host the auto show on July 15, barring some dramatic change in the trajectory of the pandemic,” Hynes said.”
“Hynes said the auto show would be a sort of trial run for a pair of other gatherings:”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/pritzker-set-greenlight-reopening-citys-convention-business
“Based on our current vaccination rate and Fauci’s previous statements that 75% of the country will be fully vaccinated by September. By Labor Day is when we will release restrictions in Illinois. ”
On May 5, 2020, JB Prickster said “[u]ntil we have a vaccine, or an effective treatment, or enough widespread immunity that new cases fail to materialize, the option of returning to normalcy doesn’t exist.”
1. We have a vaccine. State still closed.
2. We have effective treatments. State still closed.
3. We do not have enough widespread immunity that new cases are failing to materialize.
#3 is how the state will stay closed for years. Covid cases will pop up here and there, and there will be variants among the unvaccinated, and cases will pop up in other states. And that will be enough to keep things closed.
JB was one of the first governors to shut us down. He said it was ‘bold’….he’ll also be one of the last to open us, and he’ll claim he was “keeping us safe.”
I expect a Phase 4c type of situation to come about in early to mid-2022 as he starts campaigning for reelection.
But he’ll keep downstate closed, for political reasons.
“The last sentence even admits that the model found little impact, if you read between the lines”
Methinks you read too much between the lines. After all the beginning of the study says “Policies that require universal mask use and restrict any on-premises restaurant dining are important components of a comprehensive strategy to reduce exposure to and transmission of SARS-CoV-2”
Part of the problem is, as you suggest, those cloth masks are pretty useless in my opinion. They need to just come out and say that. They promoted them early on because nothing else was available. I’ve seen the studies but it’s common sense. Just too much gets through them. The real variable that should be looked at is the % of the adult population that is wearing surgical masks.
“Why are these restrictions being rolled back? The vaccine which we have and is being distributed and injected.”
Everyone is being lulled into a false sense of security from the politicians to the health officials. Everyone wants to be done with this thing. But we will not have herd immunity to the South African variant at all this year. It’s already widespread and will spread just like the original virus. Mark my words. We’re going to end up repeating last year.
“It’s already widespread and will spread just like the original virus. Mark my words. We’re going to end up repeating last year.”
Cases are on the rise again in Texas (and they’re getting rid of the mask mandate as of today).
Dade County in Florida is still reporting 1,000 new cases a day.
In NYC, 50% of the cases being reported as of the beginning of March were the variants (UK, South Africa but really that new New York variant).
By April, variants will be most of the cases.
In France, they are having another outbreak but don’t want to shut down Paris again even though hospitals are filling up. But they’ve only vaccinated 3% of their population so far.
We’re still in a race.
Moderna is testing a booster shot for South Africa right now, isn’t it?
“1. We have a vaccine. State still closed.”
Yawn. This is wrong.
He just said today he expects to have Chicago convention halls open by July. Fans will be in Wrigley and the Cell on opening day.
We’ll have everyone who wants to be vaccinated by May, at the latest. By April, there will be millions of vaccines just floating around. Key will be to get those like HD who doesn’t WANT to get it, to get it. But everyone who wants it, will get it. We are at like 80% of those over 75 and 60% of those over 65 already.
But you have to reach herd immunity, which is 70%. And then see what happens with the variants and boosters.
This is why the big aid package was so important. Hospitality will still be challenged for the next few months even while it’s improving.
“Here we go – The Convention Unions and Trade Show Reps put the screws on Pritzker this past week or two. Pritzker announcing that conventions coming back by mid-july. Will be interested to see what the capacity limits will be initially.”
They didn’t need to do it. Other states were reopening with NO restrictions.
Can we afford to lose all of that business?
No.
But many conventions will still be cancelled, open or not, as many companies don’t want to send employees into those situations yet. Heck, people aren’t even back in their offices. Do they want attend an indoor convention in 2 months? No.
“I imagine “swing states” lift restrictions by Memorial Day assuming Texas, Connecticut, and Maryland, etc. don’t have outbreaks.”
Cases are already on the rise in Texas, even before the mask mandate has gone away and the spring breakers have arrived.
God speed Texas.
“We all know our politicians in Illinois will *never* give up the power to force people to wear masks. It allows them to instantly know who is with the regime and who is against it.”
You mean- like wearing your seatbelt tells them who is with the “regime”?
Lol.
“There are 17 states with no masks and not much different between mask and no mask states.”
Do those 17 states have the 4th largest city?
Cloth masks can work, but not to the extent of the N95s. If you wear double masks, you have pretty good protection as long as they’re tight around the nose and cover everything else.
“Yeah but TX has vaccinated less than 7% of its population (CDC says TX qualifies for 48th place in US) and has no reason other than political beliefs imho to drop mask mandates and other public health protections.”
Southbound, apparently they dropped it because of…spring break.
“As JohnnyU said what about rising prices? This is the determinant if the market is “hot” form mine and his perspective.”
We’ve gotten rid of the inventory now.
1.5 months for single family homes means, if you want one, you have to pay for it. And bigly.
UNLESS, thousands of single family homes within the city get listed for sale this spring. So far, that’s not happening.
We are entering into a multi-year bull market in housing in the Chicagoland area. As is the rest of the country. Too many buyers, not enough sellers and the builders aren’t building enough to meet demand.
Happy days are here again homeowners.
“The pandemic may have solved this.”
Pandemic has made is WORSE, not solved it. Suburbs have no available land either. Everywhere.
Homebuilders talk about all of this on their conference calls every quarter.
You want land in or around Boise to build 250 homes? Good luck. You are going to PAY.
Same with Atlanta, LA, Phoenix, Las Vegas and on and on.
Chicagoland actually has some affordable land way out in the cornfields. Home builders abandoned the Chicago market in the last few years because sales here were terrible. No one wanted to be in St. Charles or Sugar Grove, anymore. Millennials certainly didn’t. And there was no pricing power because of low demand.
So they left.
“ We’ve gotten rid of the inventory now.
1.5 months for single family homes means, if you want one, you have to pay for it. And bigly.
UNLESS, thousands of single family homes within the city get listed for sale this spring. So far, that’s not happening.”
So after months of bleating about lack of inventory, 1.5 months of inventory when we’ll finally see appreciation?
“We are entering into a multi-year bull market in housing in the Chicagoland area. As is the rest of the country. Too many buyers, not enough sellers and the builders aren’t building enough to meet demand.“
The rest of the country has been in one for a while. Chicago has been treading water.
The preference towards SFH since the outbreak is pushing city buyers into the ‘burbs. The folks that own the $750k to $1MM SFH don’t really have a good upgrade option So they’re staying put and doing home improvement projects.
“happy days are here again homeowners.“
Only if you’re leaving Chicago And moving to a lower cost of living location
“Cases are already on the rise in Texas, even before the mask mandate has gone away and the spring breakers have arrived.”
Texas is still on the way down. Let’s check back in a month.
“Chicagoland actually has some affordable land way out in the cornfields. Home builders abandoned the Chicago market in the last few years because sales here were terrible. No one wanted to be in St. Charles or Sugar Grove, anymore. Millennials certainly didn’t. And there was no pricing power because of low demand.”
This is more of your typical BS
Chicago has plenty of affordable land – https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/7021-S-Hermitage-Ave-60636/home/12570860
The issue with building in Chicago is 2 fold – Land/housing is available, though its where folks like Sabrina fear to tread and they dont like to up-zone
“Key will be to get those like HD who doesn’t WANT to get it, to get it.”
Nah, the ‘key’ is getting the vax production/distribution system robust enough that we can get everyone who is willing *re-* vax’d in ’22.
Kooks (among whom I do not count HD) who think the vax is tracking or mind control or other bullshit are going to do what they will, and make it at least marginally more likely that this remains a seasonally recurring virus–serious for some, minor for others somewhat like influenza–for a long time.
“Pandemic has made is WORSE, not solved it. Suburbs have no available land either. Everywhere.”…..
“Chicagoland actually has some affordable land way out in the cornfields.”
Which one is it? It has affordable land or it doesn’t? Again, I was talking about Chicago not Boise or the Southeast.
Remember I was responding to your comment about saying the city of Chicago has no affordable land.
Further, haven’t you been pushing the theory on how developers are going to construct a ton of condos now and convert apartments into condo buildings all over the city?
“No one wanted to be in St. Charles or Sugar Grove, anymore.”
Can you comment on the burbs that JohnnyU and I were discussing yesterday which was Oak Park, Elmhurst, Highland Park, Downers Grove, Wheaton, Elmwood Park, and Oak Lawn?
We were sticking to suburbs that had flatlined over the past decade at around 50K people not looking at Sugar Grove and St Charles which have 10K and 30K people.
Please try and keep up.
“they dont like to up-zone”
Yeah, who wants to live in a shithole like Winnetka where you can build a house on a 1/4 acre? That’s practically like living in Gaza.
Helmethofer,
Is the 15% higher death rate in 2020 part of the hoax also? https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/10/cdc-finds-covid-19-drove-15-percent-spike-in-death-rate-475219
“Cases are already on the rise in Texas, even before the mask mandate has gone away and the spring breakers have arrived.”
Let’s see what the internet says. “Central Texas reports lowest number of cases since June” This was two days ago.
Further, the mask mandate officially ended today or yesterday not immediately. Lets see were Texas is trending come Easter before trying to dunk on other States covid policies.
We did this multiple times last year with states like Texas and Florida yet they seem to have fared similarly compared to NY, CA, amongst others.
It would be a good thing for the country to see Connecticut, Maryland, and yes even Texas and Florida to not have spikes so we can start trending back to normal sooner than later.
I don’t know why liberals want to see certain states suffer more or continue restrictions if they aren’t warranted at this stage. People that think this way sound like the Trumpists wanting to see Blue Cities and States suffer and fail over the past how many years. “own the libs” turned into “own the trumpists”. Not a good sign.
I don’t get it.
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/austin-covid-updates-march-8/269-9f107f3e-0e94-4c54-89bf-816c0d9e3bc1
“Yeah, who wants to live in a shithole like Winnetka where you can build a house on a 1/4 acre? That’s practically like living in Gaza.”
Is Winnetka now a new Chicago neighborhood? (Bucktown on the Lake?)
I’m not talking preferences, only a potential solution to increasing the supply of housing
“Can we afford to lose all of that business?
No.”
Sabrina – you sound like a republican now. Is it “profits over people” or “health and safety”.
Further, it’s not just about current business it’s the trade show unions who are 25K strong in the state have been out of work for a year.
“Chicago neighborhood”
No one in a SFH neighborhood wants spot up-zoning, and the standard lot is dense enough. If we’re talking about changing the allowable dwelling unit density and FAR in certain zoning classes, that could help with overall affordability, but I don’t know that it really fixes the issue as to bona fide “middle class” SFHs.
Anyway, I thought you were blending the city/suburb land availability thing–my mistake.
[nb: Look how easy that is! I was wrong, and I just owned it!]
“Heck, people aren’t even back in their offices. Do they want attend an indoor convention in 2 months? No.”
10/10 people would rather attend the Chicago Auto Show than sit in an office. These events wouldn’t take place if they didn’t think people would come.
Further, there have been conventions this year already across the country where people attended.
“But he’ll keep downstate closed, for political reasons”
Well lucky for you the downstate champion anti-masker himself Darren Bailey threw his hat in the ring to run for Governor. Have fun voting for him in the primary and supporting someone that will get ~40% of the vote in a general election. For reference it takes 50% + 1 to win.
Keep up with the grievance.
“Is the 15% higher death rate in 2020 part of the hoax also?”
I heard somewhere, Gary, that it’s all homicides, suicides, and opiate ODs.
“No one in a SFH neighborhood wants spot up-zoning, and the standard lot is dense enough. If we’re talking about changing the allowable dwelling unit density and FAR in certain zoning classes, that could help with overall affordability, but I don’t know that it really fixes the issue as to bona fide “middle class” SFHs.”
Slight disagreement – some/many folks like the idea of upzoning in SFH neighborhoods, it just that they dont want it in theirs.
IF people are dead set on living in Bucktown/LP/etc, they’ll have to increase density. The other option is to move to “Less” desirable (Read minorities live there) hoods.
“Anyway, I thought you were blending the city/suburb land availability thing–my mistake.
[nb: Look how easy that is! I was wrong, and I just owned it!]”
NP – Thats what adults do
“If we’re talking about changing the allowable dwelling unit density and FAR in certain zoning classes, that could help with overall affordability, but I don’t know that it really fixes the issue as to bona fide “middle class” SFHs.”
Higher density almost never leads to more affordable housing for anyone. Years ago I lived next to an ‘affordable’ SFH that sold for $400k, was torn down, and in its place, was a duplex up and duplex down with a single floor middle unit, the middle unit selling about two years ago for just under $500k. there are examples of this all over the country.
“Well lucky for you the downstate champion anti-masker himself Darren Bailey threw his hat in the ring to run for Governor. Have fun voting for him in the primary and supporting someone that will get ~40% of the vote in a general election. For reference it takes 50% + 1 to win.”
The fact that JB is a worse gov than Blago, but will still likely win the election, shows what a clown state IL has become. IL is the laughing stock of the country.
“IF people are dead set on living in Bucktown/LP/etc, they’ll have to increase density. The other option is to move to “Less” desirable (Read minorities live there) hoods. ”
————————————
You forget the third option: Sabrina and Gary click their heels three times and wish expanded boundaries for Bucktown. People will then live in Bucktown without having to move.
That would play hob with Gary’s commissions, though, so he’ll need to re-think his position.
“some/many folks like the idea of upzoning in SFH neighborhoods”
Anyone who thinks that *spot* upzoning is good *general* policy is, imo, a fucking idiot. There are lots of underzoned areas in Chicago, but doing spot zoning is just a wealth transfer to Buyers who can get their individual lot zoning changed.
There are, of course, circumstances where it makes sense, but I think that a more structured/robustly-enforced variance process would be preferable.
Example: think of a Chicago bungalow neighborhood. Buyer wants to replace a rundown, out of place, frame ‘cottage’, and would like to build a house that’s a little bigger, but with the same setbacks (front and rear) as the neighboring houses–thus needing to exceed the height and FAR for the existing zone.
If you upzone, then they can change their mind and reduce their rear yard, etc., but (in a better system than we have in Chicago) you grant a specific variance for their plans, with a right to rebuild in the future, would be better policy, imo.
congrats Illinois for moving to 51st out of 50 states in being the best at taking your hard earned dollars and still being in horrific financial condition
https://wallethub.com/edu/best-worst-states-to-be-a-taxpayer/2416
I’m sure this is somehow “good for real estate”
“51st out of 50 states in being the best at taking your hard earned dollars”
Somehow this list has California as the 11th best state, just ahead of South Carolina, and 29 spots better than Texas.
“Texas, nearly as highly taxed as New Jersey!”
Is that accurate, or is this a shitty list?
“Example: think of a Chicago bungalow neighborhood. Buyer wants to replace a rundown, out of place, frame ‘cottage’, and would like to build a house that’s a little bigger, but with the same setbacks (front and rear) as the neighboring houses–thus needing to exceed the height and FAR for the existing zone.
If you upzone, then they can change their mind and reduce their rear yard, etc., but (in a better system than we have in Chicago) you grant a specific variance for their plans, with a right to rebuild in the future, would be better policy, imo.”
Just to be clear by upzoning, I’m referring to a SFH to Duplex or MIL Apt over garage – Triplexs on transit corridors
“Is that accurate, or is this a shitty list?”
I think it really depends on how much money you make, and their example just happened to work out better for some states than you would expect at their fixed income levels, property taxes in Texas are generally higher than in CA and I think that is what is skewing the results
“Just to be clear by upzoning, I’m referring to a SFH to Duplex or MIL Apt over garage – Triplexs on transit corridors”
Sure, but going from 3 to 3.5 also increases allowable height, and reduces front and rear setbacks.
And my objection is to changing Lot 3 of Block X from RS-3 to RT-3.5, while leaving lots 1,2, and 4-40 as RS-3, instead of changing all of Block X to RT-3.5.
“This is more of your typical BS”
I said “Chicagoland” has plenty of land. As far as the eye can see.
Chicago has huge tracks where they are building Lincoln Yards and the 78. And the Steel site is massive. But the national public home builders like Toll Brothers never built IN Chicago. And those that built in the suburbs have mostly fled.
They couldn’t make money here. No demand and prices going nowhere. Why bother when you can just build in Atlanta instead?
I guess the local press in Texas is wrong with this headline from 3/10.
https://www.click2houston.com/news/texas/2021/03/10/daily-covid-19-case-totals-are-ticking-up-again-in-texas/
“The rest of the country has been in one for a while. Chicago has been treading water.”
Yep. But even we are joining the party now.
The sales tell the tale. The inventory tell you where prices are going.
The bull market is here. And will be for the next several years.
Enjoy.
“I guess the local press in Texas is wrong with this headline from 3/10. ”
Yeah, the headline is wrong though their math is right. Texas clearly has periodic reporting problems. You can see it plainly in the graphs where they under report every so often. It happened in late February and using a 2 week moving average pulls that effect in. However, the 7 day moving average clearly shows a decline.
I said “Chicagoland” has plenty of land. As far as the eye can see.
Vs
Chicagoland actually has some affordable land way out in the cornfields.
You claim that the only affordable lad is in the “cornfields”, and when I show affordable land in the city you want to move the goalposts
“And the Steel site is massive.”
———————————–
It is also EPA Superfund qualified.
“It is also EPA Superfund qualified.”
Sabrina just found a home for the Poors and minorities
Got a house that’s been updated and pricing it under $1 million on the north side?
It will go under contract almost immediately. I can’t crib on any of these because there’s no point. They will all go under contract within 24 hours. With multiple offers.
This one is in North Center.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1917-W-Belle-Plaine-Ave-60613/unit-HOME/home/13389469
Brand new, at current under-$1m price for a month now:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4807-N-Seeley-Ave-60625/home/13404440
Wild cars is what’s going in next door.
And there is this freaky place:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/5954-N-Paulina-St-60660/home/113042682
“ Brand new, at current under-$1m price for a month now:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4807-N-Seeley-Ave-60625/home/13404440
Wild cars is what’s going in next door.”
For $1MM? – Ouch
As for next door, the job trailer is odd. One of the utility companies own the lot?
Well, many anecdotes being stated as *facts*, a random conspiracy theorist dropping *knowledge*, negative bearish comments, attacks on the web owner, web owner occasionally swooping in and replying to days old comments, and Gary giving market stats from his MS Office 95 spreadsheet?
yep just like i remembered.
“….yep just like i remembered.”
Groove77 you & your perspective have been missed here.
Thank you southbound.
‘It takes more courage to reveal insecurities than to hide them, more strength to relate to people then to dominate them, more ‘manhood’ to abide by thought-out principles rather than blind reflex. Toughness is in the soul and spirit, not in muscles and an immature mind’
-George Papadapolis
“the job trailer is odd”
It’s been there for at least 2 decades. Think that it got used when the lot was a Christmas tree lot, and maybe a seasonal garden lot, too? I can’t recall seeing it used that way, but that’s really the historical norm for that sort of space, maintained in that way, on the northside.
Groove! You didn’t die!
Good to see you still around too, anon(ufo)
hit the inbox if you’re up for it: anon_tfo at hotmail
“hit the inbox if you’re up for it”
Check your spam folder
“Groove! You didn’t die!”
ha ha.
Whew.
I fear for “G”. He’s been missing for about a decade now.
“Well, many anecdotes being stated as *facts*, a random conspiracy theorist dropping *knowledge*, negative bearish comments, attacks on the web owner, web owner occasionally swooping in and replying to days old comments, and Gary giving market stats from his MS Office 95 spreadsheet?
yep just like i remembered.”
Ha ha.
Why would it ever change Groove?
I do have to say, there are some newer commenters in the last 6 months which reflects that the housing market is changing again. People are “interested” in housing again. And they’re somehow finding Cribchatter out there on the interwebs.
“Wild cars is what’s going in next door.”
What’s “wild cars” anon(tfo)?
“What’s “wild cars” anon(tfo)?”
A typo. d, not s.
Check out this house in Bowmanville/Lincoln Square. On the market 4 days.
From the listing:
“MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED, HIGHEST & BEST DEADLINE CALLED FOR, 3/15/21 AT 4:00 P. M. | COMPLETELY UPDATED 3 bedroom, 2 full bath single family home in fantastic Bowmanville/Lincoln Square location, renovated inside and out in 2017 and further updated in 2020!”
Here’s its sales history from the CCRD:
Currently listed at $650,000 (under contract with multiple offers)
Sold in August 2020 for $585,000
Sold in April 2017 for $377,000
Sold in April 1996 for $159,000
Sold in November 1992 for $140,000
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1942-W-Summerdale-Ave-60640/home/13405818
“the job trailer is odd”
It’s been there for at least 2 decades. Think that it got used when the lot was a Christmas tree lot, and maybe a seasonal garden lot, too? I can’t recall seeing it used that way, but that’s really the historical norm for that sort of space, maintained in that way, on the northside.”
And this can become sort of a problem over the years as jobs trailers are not designed to be permanent and start to fall apart.
This one looks like it is well maintained from looking at the lot, but usually I’d consider this somewhat of a red-flag for SFHs in this segment.
All sorts of odd smells, standing water pockets bringing mosquitos. Yay lots of fun from a “temporary” job trailer that would never be allowed per local code if it were properly described as permanent but is allowed to stay under the presumption that it is temporary and will be moving “soon”.
“Ha ha.
Why would it ever change Groove?”
Glad it didn’t ‘Brina, good to have something stable in these times. Just like the housing market no matter the reality it just does what it always does, defies commons sense.