Market Conditions: June Sales Plunge to 9-Year Lows Due to Coronavirus Shutdown
The June housing data is out.
Sales were the lowest since 2011, which was near the bottom of the housing bust.
Reminder these closings would have been properties under contract in March, April and May, which was during the coronavirus shutdown.
The city of Chicago saw year-over-year home sales decrease 29.1 percent with 2,020 sales in June, compared to 2,850 a year ago. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in June was $329,500, up 3.3 percent from June 2019.
Thanks to G for the historical sales data:
- June 1997: 1,817
- June 1998: 2,214
- June 1999: 2,435
- June 2000: 2,513
- June 2001: 2,451
- June 2002: 2,590
- June 2003: 2,891
- June 2004: 3,752
- June 2005: 3,850
- June 2006: 3,557
- June 2007: 3,127
- June 2008: 2282
- June 2009: 1981
- June 2010: 2526 (tax credit sales)
- June 2011: 1841
- June 2012: 2246
- June 2013: 2729
- June 2014: 2846
- June 2015: 3202
- June 2016: 3321
- June 2017: 3380
- June 2018: 3191
- June 2019: 2850
- June 2020: 2020
Here is the monthly median price data:
- June 2008: $309,945
- June 2009: $242,050
- June 2010: $234,250
- June 2011: $207,000
- June 2012: $216,700
- June 2013: $254,900
- June 2014: $275,000
- June 2015: $288,250
- June 2016: $299,900
- June 2017: $306,750
- June 2018: $314,900
- June 2019: $319,000
- June 2020: $329,500
“As we began the reopening process of our city in June, we saw the market respond accordingly,” said Maurice Hampton, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and owner of Centered International Realty. “Although there was a 29.1 percent decline in sales, it was a big improvement from May, and prices continue to hold steady. The 20.2 percent decline in inventory definitely plays into these sales declines, as more options lead to more opportunities for homebuyers.”
The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 3.16% from 3.23% in May 2020 and was down from 3.8% in June 2019.
That is the cycle low, so far, for average mortgage rates.
“The Illinois and Chicago housing markets both recorded positive month-to-month increases in sales, although declines on a yearly basis,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, emeritus director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. “The Illinois market recorded the second consecutive month of price decreases while the Chicago market maintained very modest price growth. The declines are expected to continue in Illinois, but the changes will be very close to zero in Chicago over the next three months.”
Inventory remained low both in Chicago and statewide.
Chicago inventory fell 20.2% to 8,216 from 10,290.
Some realtors are blaming some of the drop in sales in June to lack of inventory, i.e. there’s nothing for buyers to actually buy.
Is inventory still the problem?
June brings renewed housing demand as Illinois reopens; low housing inventory still an issue [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, July 22, 2020]
There’s too much uncertainty in Chicago to make a longterm commitment here, or to increase one’s existing real estate portfolio.
-COVID-19 risk of infection in the city
-Threat of jobs leaving the city (companies going remote)
-High rates of violence
-Weak leadership
-Impending property tax hikes
As I’ve been pointing out in my blog posts the season has shifted out a month or two. Showing activity is now higher than last year and peaking later. June contract activity was up 14.4% over last year so we should see the impact in July.
Inventory is tight but if the market was so sizzling why would market times be longer than last year?
“Inventory is tight but if the market was so sizzling why would market times be longer than last year?”
Obviously you dont understand the HAWT Market Theory ™
I picture Sabrina/JoeZ channeling their inner Tim Robbins (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=xGn55BRyDSk&feature=emb_logo) when commenting on the market
“COVID-19 risk of infection in the city
-Threat of jobs leaving the city (companies going remote)
-High rates of violence
-Weak leadership
-Impending property tax hikes”
I guess no one will be buying in Portland or Seattle either.
And forget about Texas. They’re going to be $5 billion in the hole. Lots of talk about how they’re going to raise that money. Higher property taxes? Higher sales taxes? An income tax?
Every state will have these problems though.
“Inventory is tight but if the market was so sizzling why would market times be longer than last year?”
Some properties are being priced too high, perhaps? So those are sitting.
By the way, I think it’s hilarious I’m being attacked for being a housing bull (did anyone see those new home and existing home sales numbers? My gosh. The sizzle is nationwide. And the homebuilders are having their best months EVER- but I digress) because for years on this blog I was attacked by chuk for being a housing bear because it was cheaper to rent than to buy for many years after the bust.
Chuk literally called me a moron dozens of times over.
Lol.
Also, from what I’m seeing, some properties are going under contract immediately if they’re priced correctly and they have updated finishes.
This loft just came on. I didn’t even have time to crib on it. Already under contract. At a good price point of $435,000. Probably cheaper than renting. And nice finishes.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1872-N-Clybourn-Ave-60614/unit-405/home/13350857
Let me just drop this here for your consideration…
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3842-N-Alta-Vista-Ter-60613/home/13383102
Here’s another.
I was going to head to Avondale to cover the action there as we haven’t chattered about it in quite some time. There’s new construction SFHs coming on the market in the $800,000s there. In Avondale. Wow.
But before I could get there, they’re already under contract, like this one, in just a few days. Listed at $875,000. Buyers love the farmhouse look though. White and blue kitchen with open shelves and white tile backsplash straight out of an episode of HGTV (Property Brothers Forever Home or Good Bones- and this isn’t a knock on those shows. They know what is “in” right now.)
But in Avondale. $875,000.
Sizzle.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3031-N-Gresham-Ave-60618/home/22692498
Thanks Nonya.
That Alta Vista Row House has been on the market for a while now. It’s interior is just too specific to the current home owner. Buyers don’t want to “repaint.” They just want to move in.
And they want it to look like a West Elm catalogue.
The seller should repaint it now.
This is similar to a loft in the West Loop that has a big mural on one of the walls. The original listing marketed the mural as a selling point but after sitting on the market, the listing now shows pictures, similar to this one, where they paint over the mural to show you what it could look like without it.
It’s hard to sell a house that is really specific to one owner’s tastes.
“The sizzle is nationwide.”
Sure. But not in Chicago.
For every property you pull up that sold quickly there’s another one that is twiddling its thumbs. It’s like that all the time. I’ve actually done the analysis several times (due for my 2020 analysis) and there’s a distribution as you would expect. Some go quickly and others lag. You could always say the market is hot and some properties lag because they are overpriced. You could have said that in 2012 too. I can guarantee you that some properties in 2012 sold quickly. So what?
The only way to evaluate the market is too look at aggregate statistics like market time and inventory.
Nonya,
OMG! That is the listing from hell. The fact that they have virtually painted the home tells me that the agent had the discussion with the sellers and they declined to take his advice. They don’t want to repaint it because they think it’s perfect as is and someone will appreciate the fine job they did. Been there.
But apparently it’s more than just paint. There are other weird ass design elements.
“And forget about Texas. They’re going to be $5 billion in the hole.”
Soo, about what IL will be in the hole, but with 2.5x the population? 60% less per person?
“There are other weird ass design elements.”
You don’t say!
“Already under contract. At a good price point of $435,000.”
They paid $389 for it, and redid the kitchen and the bath. Likely losing money *before* transaction costs, definitely losing money counting transaction costs.
“COVID-19 risk of infection in the city
-Threat of jobs leaving the city (companies going remote)
-High rates of violence
-Weak leadership
-Impending property tax hikes”
“Every state will have these problems though.”
Sure, every state will have these problems to some extent. But not as badly as in Chicago. Look how bad the murder rate is, how high the property taxes are, and how weak our local leadership is.
In the last few months:
-City has become less safe to live in
-Is looking like it will become more expensive to live in (Property taxes).
-Quality of life has dramatically decreased
Also, CPS has significant problems when NOT dealing with a pandemic. I can’t imagine what the quality of the education is through e-learning.
“White and blue kitchen with open shelves and white tile backsplash straight out of an episode of HGTV”
yes a brilliant idea putting a bunch of open shelves directly next to where you’ll be cooking/frying things
I can imagine how disgusting some of those bowls would get in a week or so
“But in Avondale. $875,000.”
Wonder if these buyers will want to get out in 16 months, just like the current owners?
Closed for 803,500, March-19.
Buyers are jumping at the low interest rates. Anyone who planned to move is moving now. As soon as these rates become normalized or begin to rise, the market is going to slow considerably. There is also the beginnings of a flight out of Chicago. I hope this does not materialize. How CPS schools handle this fall’s schedule will determine how many, and how fast families leave.
“OMG! That is the listing from hell. The fact that they have virtually painted the home tells me that the agent had the discussion with the sellers and they declined to take his advice. They don’t want to repaint it because they think it’s perfect as is and someone will appreciate the fine job they did. Been there.”
I really just hope that the owners got to enjoy the house. ie, that they didn’t just do all this like a year ago and think they could sell it. If they’ve been there for 15-20 years and enjoyed it? Then good.
And I’m sure someone would like that place, but how long you want to wait?
Dan P: Make sure you use “Dan P” and not just “Dan” when you are commenting. You have been signed in as Dan P in the past.
“Dan” was taken years ago. Trust me, you don’t want to use that name even if you could. Lol.
“Wonder if these buyers will want to get out in 16 months, just like the current owners?”
Lots of people have to move quickly for a variety of reasons. Maybe they were in management at United and have lost their jobs? Maybe they just got promoted and have to move to Austin? Who the hell knows?
You don’t know anything anon(tfo). You only THINK you do. And no, I don’t want you to tell us all about their history just because you looked up their names in the public record.
Here’s one pending at $825,000. Last sold in 2014 for $555,000. Went under contract in 6 days.
SIZZLE.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2953-N-Gresham-Ave-60618/home/13448371
“Look how bad the murder rate is, how high the property taxes are, and how weak our local leadership is.”
No offense, KK, but how old are you? Are you a Millennial who just moved here? I’m asking honestly because the “murder rate” is actually not even close to the highs the city has seen in previous years/decades. Property taxes are an issue. For sure. But that hasn’t stopped people over the past 2 years from buying. Far from it. And our “weak local leadership”? What does that even mean? You don’t like the mayor? Was Rahm “weak”?
Lol.
And, again, CPS is NOT the problem. If you think that anyone is getting quality education during the pandemic, even at New Trier, keep dreaming.
“They paid $389 for it, and redid the kitchen and the bath. Likely losing money *before* transaction costs, definitely losing money counting transaction costs.”
Um…so???
And your point is?
The SIZZLE IS ON.
Price a property correctly and it will go under contract within the first week. Inventory is THAT low.
“I can guarantee you that some properties in 2012 sold quickly. So what?”
Ba ha ha ha ha. This is the funniest thing you’ve said on this blog Gary.
I was actually running this blog in 2012. The inventory was MASSIVE. The super cheap foreclosures sold quickly though. Ask Milkster, who posts on this blog. She’ll tell you. That’s when she was flying out from NY to buy up foreclosed houses. Lots would get scooped up quickly.
But there aren’t 40% foreclosures in the system right now, are there. No, there are not. Nor is there massive inventory. Just the reverse. There are still people who are moving to Chicago. Still people who were in an apartment and now see the record low mortgage rates and are saying, “now is the time for me to buy a house.” And they are still doing so in the city.
The luxury market is over saturated but the occasional unique property, like the Old Town stable house, will go under contract quickly. The dime a dozen high rise units? Not so much.
If you’re trying to sell a single family home on the north side for $800,000, you’ll probably sell it pretty quickly as those are somewhat rare. But, of course, there are some that are just over priced, need renovation etc.
It’s hot out there. But with the economy heading into a “W” recovery, that could change by this fall.
I love all the bears on this blog. It’s basically the exact opposite of what was happening in 2007 and 2008, when I started this blog, when people would argue that prices could NEVER fall in Chicago.
Lol.
You shouldn’t post while drunk, you’re making less sense than normal
“Was Rahm “weak”? ”
Rahm was not weak and was a great mayor (at least historically for Chicago)
you retards don’t know how good he was and look at the fucking disaster you have now… yikes
“You don’t know anything anon(tfo). You only THINK you do.”
And neither do you.
My hypothesis that they liked the house, and then a year of living on that block proved they didn’t like the neighborhood is absolutely likely. And YOU DON’T KNOW!!
Yes, buying in gentrifying areas is the easiest way to make money on your home purchase. But buying the most expensive house (that is also in no way unique) in the immediate area is not the way to do that.
Although the market is slow for cookie cutter highrise units, the SFN option appear to be going fairly fast. My sister has been looking for ~$1M place with 4+ beds and some either get taken in a week or have major repair issues.
What does CC think about this one (for under listing): https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1653-W-Farragut-Ave-60640/unit-1/home/13403997
Way too far north for me but she seems to like it (and can build out the roof eventually).
“Here’s one pending at $825,000. Last sold in 2014 for $555,000. Went under contract in 6 days.
SIZZLE. ”
Here is one that sold in 12 days in 2012 for $900,000. Not a foreclosure. SIZZLE: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1245-W-Melrose-St-Chicago-IL-60657/3712208_zpid/
I can easily show you Lake View homes that are lingering today. Shall we just declare that they are all overpriced? Suppose the Gresham property had been priced at 900 or 925K and taken longer to sell? Would that have meant the market was not sizzling?
You picked an example in Avondale where the average SFH price has skyrocketed since 2014. Same is not true in Lake View.
@ Rob – – that looks comfortable and move in ready. I don’t know if it is a good deal but that area is pretty nice and I would have previously considered it too far north for me but if she has friends nearby and likes the area then given the new normal with remote working likely an option some days a week now forever (cats out of the bag on that one I guess), it could be a great buy. Any home with sufficient space for everyone to be in their own area during the day working or studying, private outdoor space and separate happy hour space, is desirable. Anything that doesn’t check all those boxes is a no go in my personal opinion. Whenever I see a listing with a desk in a corner of the living room or in a bedroom (other than a child’s bedroom), I cringe.
@everyone, anecdotally a realtor friend noted that the lower end of the condo market is on fire – – think any decent condo with fairly recent updates that is cheaper than a rental of comparable quality (after doing all the buy vs. rent math), are flying off the shelf. Someone recently alerted me to one of my former homes being for sale by the current owner and the price is mind boggling to me. I am keeping an eye on it and may learn something….or they may learn something. Someone will learn something.
I have a lot more tolerance for being north than most on this blog, or simply liking for a number of more northerly neighborhoods, so it’s not surprising that I like the location of the Farragut place. Super convenient to Andersonville, but a bit out of the way (so quieter and I expect you get more for the money that side of Ashland).
The L is not convenient from there, but it is a potential plus to be walking distance to the metra (even if the walk is still long for a daily commute).
“I can easily show you Lake View homes that are lingering today.”
I wasn’t talking about Lakeview in the examples. DUH!!!!!
I said Avondale was hot. It is. It’s sizzling. And when anon(tfo) tried to attack the example because the people had only lived there 16 months, I gave another example.
HOUSES ARE $800,000 in AVONDALE and are selling within days. IN AVONDALE.
Ba ha ha. Homedelete’s prediction from a few years ago that the gentrification would move right up the blue line is coming true.
The market is HOT if that is happening.
Sizzle. Sizzle. Sizzle.
Hey Gary, in ANY market there are always houses that linger. There are certainly plenty of properties on this site that are still for sale a year later.
Some types of properties in certain neighborhoods are in more demand than others.
But you’re lying if you think the market isn’t hot. It is. The rates are just too low and most people still have their jobs. And rates may go even lower.
It makes more sense to buy than to rent. By far. Even with the higher property taxes.
“And YOU DON’T KNOW!!”
NEITHER DO YOU!!!
Lol.
You have absolutely no idea why they are moving. Stop it.
And it’s not the most expensive house in that immediate area (shocking to me, but true.)
The market is hot right now but then again it is not. Much depends on property type, location, and price. Townhomes in LP & LV used to be the hottest commodity around. Now the young families are leaving in droves scared to head back to CPS. Take a look at 3150 n Lakewood. 4 bedroom townhomes in the Burley district. There are 16 identical units and pretty much all have young families.
The last unit sold in May 2019 for $790k in 1 day. The unit showed well but was not updated other than having the kitchen cabinets painted white. Since Covid, there are now 4 of the 16 units for sale with another coming on in the the next 2 weeks. The unit next to the $790k sale has been on the market now for 120 days. The unit is currently priced at $725k after several price adjustments. That’s a 10% decline and it’s still on the market without a buyer.
Families were the cruch for LP & LV for the past 10 years. What will happen when everyone leaves CPS for better funded schools? CPS is in trouble, and in turn LP & LV will are going to be in bigger trouble.
Here is the one that sold in 2019 -https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3150-N-Lakewood-Ave-60657/unit-5/home/12621634
Here is the unit next store -https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3150-N-Lakewood-Ave-UNIT-6-Chicago-IL-60657/80832112_zpid/
Thanks for some of the notes. She wants it completely ready to move in (like yesterday) because a kid’s on the way and her and her husband just sold their condos. I think there’s still WAY to much space at the moment, but she wants the basement setup for a nanny (as she travels a bit for work). She likes the location and ease to go to Lakeview / Boystown as well as Andersonville. The L works for her husband taking it to the loop (she works mostly remote). It’s also close to breweries, biking to the lake, Winnemac Park, etc.
I pushed for townhouses in more green-zone areas (like the ones Dan P posted), but for $1M+ they wanted their own 4 walls understandably.
“And it’s not the most expensive house in that immediate area (shocking to me, but true.)”
The triangle made by Kimball, Barry & Milwaukee?? Make it rectangular–Kimball to Lawndale, Barry to Diversey. Show us.
There is *one* house in all of Avondale that shows as either sold in the last 5 years, or is currentlyu listed, for more than $875k. It’s listed at $889:
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2846-N-Sawyer-Ave-60618/home/13447329
It’s also closer to the Logan stop than the Belmont stop (as the one you picked is) and so doesn’t strike me as in the same immediate hood.
I find one other higher than $875k closed sale of a SFH in all of Avondale, and it was east of Elston.
“The L is not convenient from there, but it is a potential plus to be walking distance to the metra ”
Berwyn red stop and Ravenswood metra are almost equidistant–~3/4 mile. I know most of the CC traditionally thought that over 1/3 of a mile is too far, and less than 1/4 is too close, but 3/4 is not too bad on nice-ish days. It is admittedly at the limit of what I would consider ok.
I know the metra is about the same distance, but it still would be nice to be walking distance to the metra to have that as an option.
The L walk would be okay for me, it’s not much farther than what I currently have, but many would find it too far. (I also don’t consider Andersonville particularly far out or inconvenient in general.)
“Families were the cruch for LP & LV for the past 10 years. What will happen when everyone leaves CPS for better funded schools? CPS is in trouble, and in turn LP & LV will are going to be in bigger trouble.”
New Trier, here they come. North Shore market is hawt with people fleeing the city.
“New Trier, here they come. North Shore market is hawt with people fleeing the city.”
This is happening and likely will be more pronounced. I was up there very recently and the traffic is getting worse. Not only that, but everyone in Wilmette and Winnetka etc. thinks they are the center of the universe, with their import cars etc., so honestly I felt it was pretty tense up there.
You start to see the hate-filled “Hate Has No Home Here” signs and pervert flags in Wilmette now. These people are bringing their failed and warped ideas and forcing them on everyone. Funny how they won’t practice what they preach and move to Evanston, they want New Trier so they can self-segregate their worthless hypocritical selves from the ETHS blacks.
It probably make more sense to go to Park Ridge?
I don’t anyone really wants New Trier. Lot’s of drugs at New Trier.
“This is happening and likely will be more pronounced. I was up there very recently and the traffic is getting worse.”
Nah. They can’t give away the houses up there.
Although they have sold two homes over $5 million this year. Go figure. I thought all the rich were fleeing Illinois? I guess not.
“What will happen when everyone leaves CPS for better funded schools?”
Um…better funded?
Again, Chicago has one of the top 5 high schools in the country.
CPS is in “trouble”?
The comments here just crack me up.
Every city, school system, state is in “trouble” right now financially. Every.Single.One.
“Families were the cruch for LP & LV for the past 10 years. What will happen when everyone leaves CPS for better funded schools? CPS is in trouble, and in turn LP & LV will are going to be in bigger trouble.”
Maybe all these sellers are buying single family homes now with more outdoor space? Because there is, basically, none in these. There is a space on the roof with 2 chairs. None of it very private or a place for children to even play.
Lots of people are moving out of spaces with no outdoor space.
Doesn’t mean they’re leaving the city or CPS.
Why are you putting your own views on all of these people?
It’s nuts.
Sabrina,
This is what many of us are hearing and experiencing in the market. It’s just starting and no one knows if this is a knee-jerk reaction, or a trend that will continue going forward. No one wants anything to do with “public spaces” and the el is not even an option right now for commuting to and from schools. Things are changing…
Q2 GDP is expected to crash 35% & Sabrina keeps looking back at the pre-covid economic collapse and trying to extrapolate forward from there saying every little thing is gonna be alright. Must be high potency dispensary quality for that Bob Marley attitude.
Boeing last sold as few planes in a quarter as it did in Q2 back in 1963 when the jet age & 707 were new.
Already banks are not allowing property owners to count rental income in refis or new loans for fear the renters are going to stop paying.
The debt ladder/house of cards has hereby collapsed and not a damn thing congress or Powell can effectively do about it. Anyone that tried to build a future on the debt house of cards well too bad you tried to be a decent person in an indecent time.
People will be limited on moving somewhere else even moreso than last time due to being stuck underwater. This probably would’ve happened anyway with covid but it will now be so much worse with the mandated shutdowns.
Congrats pro-lockdown geniuses you not only do not get the health outcome you aspired to with your naive outlook on government effectiveness & control over human behavior but you also get a steeper economic crash than would have happened otherwise as a consolation prize. I award you zero points & may God have mercy on your souls.
“ Why are you putting your own views on all of these people?”
This from the queen of ancedata?
You really have zero self awareness
“Congrats pro-lockdown geniuses you not only do not get the health outcome you aspired to with your naive outlook on government effectiveness & control over human behavior but you also get a steeper economic crash than would have happened otherwise as a consolation prize.”
This statement implies that without a lockdown everything would have been A OK. Really? Massive events would not have been cancelled by the organizers? People would be flying? The MLB would not have just cancelled a bunch of games? I would be getting haircuts and getting my teeth cleaned and getting that elective surgery I just cancelled? Meat packing plants wouldn’t have shut down? People wouldn’t be working from home where possible?
A LOT of what is going on is voluntary. Or are you assuming that everyone would have just said “let her rip”
“Nah. They can’t give away the houses up there.”
You clearly only pay attention to the city market because this is just not true. It was true for the past several years up until the end of last year. I follow the market up there because a) I grew up there; and b) my wife and I are considering moving out of the city to the northern burbs. Inventory is low, listing times are drastically falling, prices are increasing and bidding wars are breaking out. Almost all buyers are coming from the city. A family friend who has been a realtor for 30 years primarily in Winnetka & Glencoe said the market is “on fire” and she hasnt seen it like this in years. We were interested in a house a couple of months ago in Winnetka. It sold for over ask before hitting MLS and there were multiple bidders. Winnetka had no sales >$5mm in 2019 and now has had 2 over $8mm in 2019 (and one wasnt even on the lake!). The market for homes in New Trier has changed. Whether it lasts post-COVID is the question. This is happening all over the country. Home ownership rates reached a high not seen since 2008 yesterday. The largest increase coming in the under 35 age group. Rental vacanies in urban areas are climbing. Youre seeing millenials leave their city rentals and buying in the suburbs. The data supports the anecdotal information I’ve been told by my realtor friend, unfortunately for me and anyone else looking to get out of the city.
” Home ownership rates reached a high not seen since 2008 yesterday.”
There is something funky in those numbers–it is improbable, based on recent *annual* rate of home sales of ~5.5m, and q2-20 being below that rate every month, and new home sales of ~2m for the quarter, that we added 7.5m home owners in a single quarter.
“Um…better funded?
Again, Chicago has one of the top 5 high schools in the country.
CPS is in “trouble”?
The comments here just crack me up.
Every city, school system, state is in “trouble” right now financially. Every.Single.One.”
Would you quit acting line the family that buys a $1MM OT property is guaranteed to get their kids into Payton.
So you’re a buyer of CPS bonds? Would be a heck of a Bullshit tax to actually see you put your money where your mouth is
“So you’re a buyer of CPS bonds?”
Unfortunately, every real estate owner in Chicago is synthetically long (and underwater on) a ton of CPS bonds.
Today’s MLS stats:
Glencoe:
All detached single family: 56 active, 53 CTG and PEND.
Under $1M: 20 active, 26 under contract.
Closed in the past 30 days – 23 homes. 4 at full asking price, 1 over asking.
Winnetka:
All detached single family: 85 active, under contract 46. Closed in the past 30 days – 32 homes. 9 closed at full price, 3 over asking. Market times for most less than a week. 205 Sheridan closed July 27th, sold in 1 day, $8,200,000 to a cash buyer.
Under $1m – active listings 30 homes, under contract 46 homes. Closed in the last 13 days 13 homes.
Super hot market here. My clients are looking for a single family 4bed/3bath under $1m, and nothing good is available. Either it is on a main road like Willow or Tower or by Greenbay Rd, or requires $200k+ renovation. Very low inventory, everything good sells right away.
Sorry, typo regarding Winnetka:
Under $1m – active listings 30 homes, under contract 46 homes. Closed in the last 30 days 13 homes.
“A LOT of what is going on is voluntary. Or are you assuming that everyone would have just said “let her rip””
See my note:
“you also get a steeper economic crash than would have happened otherwise as a consolation prize.”
Maybe economic contraction would’ve been -20% instead of -35% if voluntary. Still horrorshow, but still plenty of economic activity preserved as not stomped out via government dictat. Yes many more people will be financially ruined with a -35% drop vs -20%. Just because the layperson cannot discern the difference between these two outcomes as they are different shades of horrorshow, they are significantly different.
” I’m asking honestly because the “murder rate” is actually not even close to the highs the city has seen in previous years/decades. ”
Just posted my annual murder summary for Chicago: http://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2020/07/chicago-murder-map-and-neighborhood-totals-2020-update/
Note that May and June are close to 19 year highs and July will be the same.
“Again, Chicago has one of the top 5 high schools in the country.”
What does this mean? There is very little chance a white person from the GZ can get their child into it because of limited # of spots and anti-white racism based quotas. 98th percentile or higher.
“Boeing last sold as few planes in a quarter as it did in Q2 back in 1963 when the jet age & 707 were new.”
In order to save the planet the NWO have created this global hysteria for the purpose of largely eliminating travel for the masses and for business travelers who can more easily conduct meetings on something like Zoom, and also to eliminate much commuting for jobs that can just as easily be performed at home. Thus vastly reducing the consumption of fossil fuels and the resulting pollution – we have all seen the before and after photos they proudly present on TV showing the now clear air in places like Beijing and New Delhi. They are also using it to drive the mass vaccination agenda which can later be used for eugenics purposes, population reduction. Evidently bone-faced vegan Greta was not enough to get the job done. (she’s so sickly looking as a vegan, SO they retired her airtime on the media)
The drive to reduce consumption and resulting pollution is also a big reason for the intentional destruction of much of the US Middle Class that is now underway, in addition to the motive of making them less independent and thus easier to control. The US Middle Class have for years been renowned worldwide for their profligate consumption habits that are now being drastically and intentionally scaled back – the NWO can justify their own continuing profligate consumption on the basis that there are a lot fewer of them which is of course true.
The point is that the common people cannot be expected to act for the common good or even for their own long-term interests – like greedy short-sighted children they have to be forced to do so. That’s a big reason for this virus plandemic – they are now forced to give up long distance vacations – and even trips to the next town – they are forced to stay at home and not commute, they are forced to wear a diaper on their faces when they go out to demonstrate their compliance with NWO dictates, they are forced not to go and squander resources in cafes and restaurants etc., and the wonderful thing is that, because they have no more idea of how the world works than the average Labrador retriever, they have been duped by the virus scare into giving up all these things voluntarily! In fact you don’t even have to force them – by the careful manipulation of their limited thought processes and the exploitation of their timidity and weakness you can get them to do literally anything you want – the plan was brilliant and audacious and so far it’s worked!
i feel sorry for all the thousands of workers in the airline, catering and hotel industries etc. who mistakenly think that one day everything will return to normal and that they will get their jobs back. No, they won’t, except that false hope can be used to goad the sheep into accepting being vaccinated so that they can have the privilege of flying again or admittance somewhere, then all they have to do is tweak the virus or bring out a new one – they have a whole array of these things of varying strength developed in germ warfare labs – and it’s back to square one, back incarcerated in their houses, vaccination certificate or not.
“Note that May and June are close to 19 year highs and July will be the same.”
And what were they in February, March and April? 19 year lows?
“Very low inventory, everything good sells right away.”
I guess this puts to rest the belief on this blog that Illinois is doomed and that the sky is falling due to the pandemic.
Because it’s not.
“Would you quit acting line the family that buys a $1MM OT property is guaranteed to get their kids into Payton.”
You don’t even live in Chicago JohnnyU. Absurd. You have NO CLUE.
Why would anyone listen to a thing you say about Chicago public schools?
My kids didn’t go to Payton, thank goodness. They didn’t want to deal with the cut throat environment there. But they got a good high school education at CPS nevertheless. And Payton, by the way, isn’t the top 5 high school, although it’s excellent. That’s what I mean JohnnyU. You don’t even live in the city and don’t know the schools.
Everyone needs to stop with “the schools.” You are showing your ancient age and that you grew up in the suburbs in the 1970s and 80s when the city sucked. So, yeah, back then it WAS “the schools.”
Not so much now. The city is thriving. Good schools in multiple neighborhoods. They simply aren’t a reason to flee for most families in a million dollar house.
Anyone who has read this blog for 13 years now knows that the GreenZone is popular and there are plenty of kids running around in all those neighborhoods. The developers are building 3-bedroom units because they are popular with families. Same with townhouses.
“It was true for the past several years up until the end of last year.”
Lake Forest and Highland Park are smoking hot again? People are always moving to Winnetka and Glencoe. They don’t have 3 years worth of inventory. Never did. But they’re still less popular than they were 30 years ago when all the rich wanted to live on the North Shore. Millennials don’t really care.
But I agree that the real estate market is on fire.
Sizzling everywhere. New homes. Old homes. Townhomes.
“Youre seeing millenials leave their city rentals and buying in the suburbs.”
This happens every year but it’s mostly because many Millennials are actually priced out of buying in the city. If you can show me that there’s a run on $800,000 to $1 million houses from city renters, then I’ll buy into your argument. But we just don’t know because the data isn’t in.
Also, Dennis Rodkin at Crain’s tried to confirm the “fleeing the city” story and he couldn’t find people who would go on the record saying that they were fleeing due to Covid. There were those who were going to buy this spring/summer anyway and most were looking in the burbs anyway. Again, until there’s actual data that there is no one buying the house in Roscoe Village and, instead, there are bidding wars in the suburbs, then we’ll know.
You can’t get a house in Roscoe Village for under $800,000 now but you can easily buy a $500,000 or $600,000 house in Oak Park and other suburbs.
The middle class are being forced out of the north side of the city. At least those who don’t want to buy in Jefferson Park or parts of Irving Park etc. And you can get the same bungalow in some suburbs you can get in those neighborhoods.
People want a backyard. The duplex down condo for $850,000 just isn’t going to cut it after Covid.
“Congrats pro-lockdown geniuses you not only do not get the health outcome you aspired to with your naive outlook on government effectiveness & control over human behavior but you also get a steeper economic crash than would have happened otherwise as a consolation prize.”
Jay Powell said today that economic data is showing a stalling starting in mid-June just as the cases spiked in the south and California again.
There haven’t been any lockdowns in those states.
The consumers are deciding not to eat indoors in the restaurants. They are deciding not to travel. They are deciding to stay home, buy outdoor furniture, and barbecue. People don’t want to die, so their behavior will change regardless of the government mandate.
“Q2 GDP is expected to crash 35% & Sabrina keeps looking back at the pre-covid economic collapse and trying to extrapolate forward from there saying every little thing is gonna be alright. Must be high potency dispensary quality for that Bob Marley attitude.”
Bob the Bear is back. Excellent.
Yeah- we KNOW GDP is going to crash. And? It has already significantly rebounded from the bottom. GDP is backward looking.
All of this was thanks to the $3 trillion aid package.
The thing that will really bite is if this Congress is stupid and only does a $1 trillion follow-up. More is needed with 14 million still unemployed and the virus running unchecked throughout the country.
If we don’t contain the virus, the country is doomed. But since we have a President who thinks it will magically disappear, we are doomed until January 2021 when, at a minimum, Biden can try and restore some order. But in the meantime, the Congress is going to have to spend $2 trillion or $3 trillion more.
It’s easy, Bob, to fill that hole. This isn’t a regular recession.
And this isn’t “last time.” Not even close. Neither the banks nor the housing market are in any kind of trouble. Not yet. But you gotta keep the $600 checks coming. It’s easy to do.
Everyone else is working Bob. They’re buying stocks on Robinhood with their $1200.
“No one wants anything to do with “public spaces” and the el is not even an option right now for commuting to and from schools. Things are changing…”
No one is going to the schools.
So people are going to move to the suburbs and take Metra to and from their office downtown then?
Um…no.
Just FYI housing bears: this isn’t 2008 or 2009. Housing is not the problem. People didn’t own 5 homes going into this recession.
And mortgage rates are at record lows. A lot of people are going to find it’s cheaper to buy than to rent.
And that’s what they’re doing. They’re buying. All over the country.
“ Again, Chicago has one of the top 5 high schools in the country.”
“My kids didn’t go to Payton, thank goodness. They didn’t want to deal with the cut throat environment there. But they got a good high school education at CPS nevertheless. And Payton, by the way, isn’t the top 5 high school, although it’s excellent. That’s what I mean JohnnyU. You don’t even live in the city and don’t know the schools.“
https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/national-rankings
You’re right, Payton is top 10, not top 5. No other schools from Illinois cracked the top 20
I’m guessing there’s a Sabrina ranking of all schools in the US.
Why do you keep embarrassing yourself?
“They are also using it to drive the mass vaccination agenda which can later be used for eugenics purposes”
That’s just one example of many of the nonsense you vomit. Do you seriously believe this shit? If so please provide your source for this conclusion. I’m afraid to ask but must.
“And what were they in February, March and April? 19 year lows?”
1) That was then. This is now.
2) Look at the graph closely and you’ll see that they were typical for that time of year.
3) An easier way to get a read on it is to look at the red moving average at that time of year. Nowhere near decades low.
“Sizzling everywhere. ”
Wait a second…is it sizzling everywhere or just Avondale? I can prove that Lake View is not sizzling – or many other community areas.
“1) That was then. This is now.”
But you have to admit that if the entire city is in lockdown, and the number of murders declines in that time, that they might increase when everyone is allowed to go out and about again?
“Why do you keep embarrassing yourself?”
You don’t even live in the city. You have said so. You are a suburbanite who has no clue about the schools. NONE.
And no, Payton is not the top 5 school. It’s great though. A lot of the Chicago public schools are great. The top 5 school is a completely different school but you have, again, no clue because you don’t live in the city and haven’t sent your kids to CPS.
That’s why this whining suddenly about “the schools” is absurd. At least try and argue that people are moving because they want outdoor space or whatever other COVID nonsense is going around out there. But don’t blame “the schools.”
Come on. Do better.
“Wait a second…is it sizzling everywhere or just Avondale? I can prove that Lake View is not sizzling – or many other community areas.”
It’s sizzling everywhere. But you and I both know, Gary, that they have overbuilt in the luxury segment. And there are always those strange properties that no one wants. And there are some who are greedy and pricing too high and so it sits and sits.
Look at this 1-bedroom I just cribbed about. Under contract in 5 days. Sounds like “affordable” one bedrooms on the north side are in demand especially if they have Subzero and Wolf and are priced at $264,000.
Sabrina, honest question…
If we have to e-learn, or do some form of hybrid e-learning this coming school year, do you think CPS is prepared and ready for the challenge?
CPS was a nightmare this past spring and I do not expect it to be any better this coming fall. They simply do not have the resources to tackle what coming. Too big and too political to make the right changes. People know it and people are leaving quickly.
“You don’t even live in the city. You have said so. You are a suburbanite who has no clue about the schools. NONE.
And no, Payton is not the top 5 school. It’s great though. A lot of the Chicago public schools are great. The top 5 school is a completely different school but you have, again, no clue because you don’t live in the city and haven’t sent your kids to CPS.
That’s why this whining suddenly about “the schools” is absurd. At least try and argue that people are moving because they want outdoor space or whatever other COVID nonsense is going around out there. But don’t blame “the schools.”
Come on. Do better.“
Nice try Nostradumbass.
Don’t live in the burbs, don’t even live in the state. But you keep on pretending you know which way is up
A lot of select enrollment schools are very good. The key word is Selective. CPS’s bond rating is not investment grade. You might want to ask yourself how will CPS improve its rating and then contemplate why that might make parents uneasy about the future.
If you dont think that the above has an effect on the long term viability of a city, then you’re even dumber than I give you credit for
“Lake Forest and Highland Park are smoking hot again? People are always moving to Winnetka and Glencoe. They don’t have 3 years worth of inventory. Never did. But they’re still less popular than they were 30 years ago when all the rich wanted to live on the North Shore. Millennials don’t really care.”
Weren’t we talking about New Trier towns? Why are you bring LF and HP into this? Nobody wants to commute all the way to LF anymore. And HP has a slew of its own issues with taxes, schools, among others.
“This happens every year but it’s mostly because many Millennials are actually priced out of buying in the city. If you can show me that there’s a run on $800,000 to $1 million houses from city renters, then I’ll buy into your argument. But we just don’t know because the data isn’t in.”
You’ve totally disregarded Vera’s post with DATA because it doesnt fit your narrative. Based on her data, there does seem to be a run on <$1mm homes, at least in Winnetka and Glencoe.
“You’re right, Payton is top 10, not top 5. No other schools from Illinois cracked the top 20”
Here’s one with Payton in the top 5, but only #2 in the state:
https://www.niche.com/k12/search/best-public-high-schools/
“The consumers are deciding not to eat indoors in the restaurants. They are deciding not to travel. They are deciding to stay home, buy outdoor furniture, and barbecue. People don’t want to die, so their behavior will change regardless of the government mandate.”
of course not, the social and network media have done a great job scaring the shit out of everyone… read a poll done that people in the UK think that 7% of people have died from covid… in the US people think that 9% of the population has died from covid… PEOPLE THINK ONE IN TEN PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM COVID!!! Lmao holy fuck people are stupid
page 24 of this lovely pdf
https://www.kekstcnc.com/media/2793/kekstcnc_research_covid-19_opinion_tracker_wave-4.pdf
maybe just maybe if we got some actual REAL news and information out there about this slightly bad flu the economy would get back on track. about 70% or more of the people I talk to think (the lockdowns) are bullshit and want to get back to work and start going places again. And of the 30% that don’t, are news consumers at white collar jobs, or are housewives.
“Here’s one with Payton in the top 5, but only #2 in the state:
https://www.niche.com/k12/search/best-public-high-schools/”
I guess neither one of us has the HAWT ™ Illinois School Rankings
The #1 school in Illinois is o/s Chicago
“But you have to admit that if the entire city is in lockdown, and the number of murders declines in that time, that they might increase when everyone is allowed to go out and about again?”
I actually thought about this. I guess it’s true if you subscribe to a pent up demand to murder theory 🙂
“It’s sizzling everywhere. But you and I both know, Gary, that they have overbuilt in the luxury segment. And there are always those strange properties that no one wants. And there are some who are greedy and pricing too high and so it sits and sits.”
So, this takes us back to my original assertion. With this logic the market is always sizzling everywhere and the counterexamples don’t count because we can just blame them on being overpriced or some other unique circumstance.
“So, this takes us back to my original assertion. With this logic the market is always sizzling everywhere and the counterexamples don’t count because we can just blame them on being overpriced or some other unique circumstance.”
The market MUST be hot with record low mortgage rates AND record low inventory.
Right?
Right.
“I actually thought about this. I guess it’s true if you subscribe to a pent up demand to murder theory”
Um…it’s actually a real thing. They have studied this. There are more shootings and violence the warmer the weather because people go out. They are literally sitting outside on the front porch. When we have a polar vortex, little happens.
Well documented.
Shootings/murders also lower in the winter.
“maybe just maybe if we got some actual REAL news and information out there about this slightly bad flu the economy would get back on track.”
So we’re back to “it’s just the flu” on the day that Herman Cain died from it after being in the hospital for a month, a 20-year old just died from it in suburban cook county, 2 people who had double lung transplants gave their first interviews and are lucky to be alive and a record number have died again in Florida? At this rate about 1500 people will die of it this week in Florida.
Does this happen with the flu sonies?
We will NEVER get out of the lockdowns because of the deniers. This will just keep going round and round.
“CPS was a nightmare this past spring and I do not expect it to be any better this coming fall.”
What do you think was going on in the suburbs? Same nightmare. Nightmare at New Trier, Hinsdale Central, the Downers Grove high schools, Oak Park River Forest, and on and on.
NO ONE was prepared last spring. NO ONE.
Oh- wait- if you went to one of the community colleges where they already had online classes, they were prepared.
Somehow CPS got everyone tablets so they could go online. And all those kids getting free breakfast and lunch managed to get food too. In the middle of a pandemic!!!! Amazing. They should be saluted just for that.
The teachers I know have had all summer to ready themselves for the inevitable online teaching again this fall. They are much more prepared. But, as with every school, there are good teachers and not so good ones.
“Somehow CPS got everyone tablets so they could go online. And all those kids getting free breakfast and lunch managed to get food too. In the middle of a pandemic!!!! Amazing. They should be saluted just for that“
Won’t even get into the tablet discussion, I don’t think UMC parents are too concerned about free meals
FWIW – private schools are seeing an uptick in enrollment/interest for this year. This could hasten the death of CPS
“FWIW – private schools are seeing an uptick in enrollment/interest for this year. This could hasten the death of CPS”
JohnnyU lives in the suburbs. He doesn’t know shit. Don’t listen to a damn thing he says about CPS.
The death of CPS. Do you even know how absurd you sound? My god. Again. There are schools that are the best in the nation producing amazing students. Do you think that is just going to go away?
Do you think the people buying $1.5 million homes in Lakeview are ALL going to rush to put their kids into some private school where COVID will be as well? And who says private teachers are ANY better equipped to teach online?
Laughable.
But those of us who have dealt with kids in the schools, both public and private, know what is what.
And yes, CPS did an amazing job in an emergency situation getting food to all the kids. And, wait a minute, on this very blog we’ve discussed how many kids at suburban “good” schools also get free meals. It’s WAY higher than you know.
Again, JohnnyU lives in the suburbs. Has no clue.
No private school is equipped to take more than 5 new students. Dream on. We’ve discussed many times that if you suddenly want to get your kid into Latin for high school you will be rejected. You have to enroll them in kindergarten to have them attend all the way through.
But, again, we’ve discussed all of this, ad nauseum on this blog like 10 years ago. Schools are much better now so the schools don’t really come up in the conversation much anymore unless it’s in an emerging area like Avondale.
This country isn’t doomed. Maybe you’re financially doomed & projecting?
Do you really think the west was won via battles against the natives & military strength? You should read up on Orsen Wells.
Nothing is doomed from a pathogen with a fatality rate below 1% it’s a laughable supposition.
“If we don’t contain the virus, the country is doomed. “
“The market MUST be hot with record low mortgage rates AND record low inventory. ”
First, you have to define “hot” in quantifiable terms. I assert it’s short market times. But we’re not seeing that. No matter how many anecdotes you produce the fact is that median market times lengthened substantially in June from last year. Condos up 46%. SFHs up 41%. In both cases the median was 38 days. Average was 85/80 days. Sure this stuff went under contract in May when people weren’t shopping as much. Let’s see how July looks.
“There are more shootings and violence the warmer the weather because people go out.”
Yes, my graph shows this. But you said “But you have to admit that if the entire city is in lockdown, and the number of murders declines in that time, that they might increase when everyone is allowed to go out and about again?” as if the lockdown would shift demand out to later months. What we saw in May and June was higher levels of murders than normal for that time of year.
“Don’t listen to a damn thing he says about CPS. ”
—————————–
And pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!
“a pathogen with a fatality rate below 1% it’s a laughable supposition”
Not if you can be reinfected annually, with increasing risk of death.
*we don’t know*.
Claiming *you* know is a laughable supposition.
“Not if you can be reinfected annually, with increasing risk of death.”
cmon anon thats bollocks, and not how your immune system works, you should know better than to fall for that fear mongering nonsense
Sabrina,
CPS is in trouble and I think we all know this. It’s too big and there is no decision they can make on in-class vs. online learning that will be right for all. Teachers are going to refuse to return to class if they decide on a hybrid schedule. I don’t blame them as health comes before everything.
I see a major break-up between CPS and the teachers’ union hapending. In politics, no good crisis should should go to waste. A major shake up is coming…
“not how your immune system works”
Didn’t realize you were an immunologist.
“Nothing is doomed from a pathogen with a fatality rate below 1% it’s a laughable supposition.”
It seems the estimates are converging on a fatality rate of about 0.5%. We can go through the math but we’re eventually talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths. We’ve already got 150K+ and increasing at over 1000/ day. Sooner or later everyone will know someone who’s died. Think that will affect economic behavior? Even now our behavior has been affected. Not looking good for the economy unless we can circulate more videos of nutcase “doctors” with miracle cures.
The situation is unfortunate but we’re already penciled in for ~500k deaths from this. Yes I know a couple that lost a parent on both sides within days of one another from it.
But just because people will due doesn’t give the government free license to shut down commercial activity. That shouldn’t be how it works.
It’s not the government to decide which jobs are “essential” and those that are “non-essential”.
This whole shutdown is a recipe for civil unrest in addition to the economic catastrophe which has been made worse and that’s what we’re seeing now: civil unrest and economic catastrophe.
And those who think government was justified in the shutdowns are naive children who think government is omnipotent to deal with all situations and that’s clearly not the case.
“But just because people will due doesn’t give the government free license to shut down commercial activity. That shouldn’t be how it works.”
But the only thing the government has really shut down at this point is restaurants and bars and in Chicago they are partially open. Some personal services are restricted but that’s it. The rest is shut down by choice or people like me just choose not to go.
“It’s not the government to decide which jobs are “essential” and those that are “non-essential”.”
That’s why they paid them to shut and stay shut. Because then it doesn’t matter if you’re “essential” or not.
Is there “civil unrest” in Melbourne Australia Bob? They just shut down for 6 weeks. You can only go out for essential services within 5 km of your house. And only one person per family can leave to go out. Curfew from 8 pm to 5 am.
Take the pain now to save the economy later.
But the US won’t do it. No leadership so around and around we go, where it stops no one knows. Meanwhile, it will be a slow drip of doom in the economy as the consumer won’t go. Look at Berghoff’s. They just shut because they were only getting 20 customers a day even though allowed more. Customers won’t eat inside in the air conditioning and they don’t have a patio.
You don’t have an economy unless you get the virus under control. No chance of us getting it under control any time soon because there is no national plan.
“Sooner or later everyone will know someone who’s died. Think that will affect economic behavior? Even now our behavior has been affected.”
Yep.
The airlines and credit card companies said that bookings and spending reversed recent gains in mid-June as the outbreaks started. It’s only going to get worse.
How many people are going to get their pedicures/manicures even though the salons have now reopened? How many are going to re-opened soul cycle? Are restaurants even able to sell out their patios?
Fewer people are deciding to travel, even though they can. Airlines have decided to cut capacity again and are laying off more pilots because the demand just isn’t going to come back like they thought it would.
“CPS is in trouble and I think we all know this. It’s too big and there is no decision they can make on in-class vs. online learning that will be right for all.”
If CPS is in “trouble” then so is every other school district, like I said. And Naperville’s district isn’t “big” as well? Are they able to make a decision that will be “right for all?”
Give me a break. Take your doom about the schools somewhere else. It’s not the reality.
“cmon anon thats bollocks, and not how your immune system works, you should know better than to fall for that fear mongering nonsense”
The antibodies only last a few months. If you got it last spring you can get it again this fall. There is no such thing as “herd” immunity as there isn’t in the flu which you can get every single year as well.
My mother had COVID last April and her doctor already warned her that she is now able to get it again and to exercise all precautions. It’s too bad because she felt pretty invincible there for about 3 months.
“Yes, my graph shows this. But you said “But you have to admit that if the entire city is in lockdown, and the number of murders declines in that time, that they might increase when everyone is allowed to go out and about again?” as if the lockdown would shift demand out to later months. What we saw in May and June was higher levels of murders than normal for that time of year.”
Yes, Gary. It would shift it. If you can’t go kill the opposing gang member you have a beef with for 2 months because everyone is on lockdown in their houses, when they come out and are driving around again, then you can. The shooting that would have taken place in March or April, now takes place in May or June instead.
“This country isn’t doomed. Maybe you’re financially doomed & projecting?”
The economy will stay in a depressed state for years unless we can get it under control. Sadly, there is no leadership that seems willing to actually, you know, lead.
Ok Karen
The parents buying the $1.5MM home in Lakeview are likely working – either from home or office. Do you really think they’re going to try and balance their work schedule with their kids at home? Parents are going to balance the risk/reward of having their kids try and learn remotely Vs in school learning. Have you seen a video-con with 20 first graders? Talk about herding cats. And thats not a shot at the teachers, its damn near impossible to keep them all engaged in that setting for any meaningful length of time.
You are the poster child for Dunning Kruger, dont ever change
CPS primary job is to educate, not distribute food
“CPS primary job is to educate, not distribute food ”
Hungry kids don’t learn, so it is both, unfortunately.
“Hungry kids don’t learn, so it is both, unfortunately.”
There are a myriad of factors at affect learning (Stable housing, family environment, etc) is CPS going to be responsible for these as well?
“The antibodies only last a few months. If you got it last spring you can get it again this fall. There is no such thing as “herd” immunity as there isn’t in the flu which you can get every single year as well.”
Absolutely false and you’re trying to make a supposition that is currently unknowable.
Covid’s older and more lethal cousin SARS has long lasting immunity in t-cells even 15 years later in survivors. It is a worse disease than covid and the immune system tends to react more the worse a disease is.
Antibodies go away t-cells tend to remember. Unless your initial case is so mild that they never develop then yes maybe you can get it again.
But as of now there is no factual data supporting what you wrote above. None.
“is CPS going to be responsible for these as well?”
If it is up the the CTU? Yes.
Federales provide funding for the meals. It is, in fact, a net money maker for the district.
“Absolutely false and you’re trying to make a supposition that is currently unknowable.”
Bob, the medical professionals are telling my mother that she is again at risk. We ALL are again in the fall.
I wish it wasn’t so because now I have to worry about her getting it again which is terrifying. While she survived the first round pretty well, it was still very nasty and lasted weeks. I’m not sure she will survive a second go around.
“There are a myriad of factors at affect learning (Stable housing, family environment, etc) is CPS going to be responsible for these as well?”
Damn JohnnyU.
There have been endless studies about kids, learning and food. It’s not questioned. By anyone.
Except morons on this site.
“There are a myriad of factors at affect learning (Stable housing, family environment, etc) is CPS going to be responsible for these as well?”
If you lived in Chicago, JohnnyU, you’d already know the answer to this. But you don’t so you make stupid statements.
https://apnews.com/7bc567d71d974a8789ffe955df254b02
CHICAGO (AP) — Striking Chicago teachers who are seeking smaller class sizes and higher pay also are demanding that the nation’s third-largest city do more to lower housing costs and put more resources into helping homeless students.
I’m not an epidemiologist nor virologist but I suspect she will likely be at less risk for reinfection or serious complications if SARS-COV-2 is anything like SARS-COV and there is reason to believe so given their infection mechanism is the same (from my understanding). You should be able to take some comfort in that.
The fall/winter is going to be bad no doubt about that. But this will be the worst fall/winter, even if a vaccine proves non-viable subsequent fall/winters won’t be as bad due to prior population exposure.
“I wish it wasn’t so because now I have to worry about her getting it again which is terrifying. While she survived the first round pretty well, it was still very nasty and lasted weeks. I’m not sure she will survive a second go around.”
“ “There are a myriad of factors at affect learning (Stable housing, family environment, etc) is CPS going to be responsible for these as well?”
Damn JohnnyU.
There have been endless studies about kids, learning and food. It’s not questioned. By anyone.
Except morons on this site.”
Karen Dunning Kruger – Put down the box Chardonnay and quit creating strawmen
I’m agreeing w/TFO
Clownshoes
“ If you lived in Chicago, JohnnyU, you’d already know the answer to this. But you don’t so you make stupid statements.
https://apnews.com/7bc567d71d974a8789ffe955df254b02
CHICAGO (AP) — Striking Chicago teachers who are seeking smaller class sizes and higher pay also are demanding that the nation’s third-largest city do more to lower housing costs and put more resources into helping homeless students.”
Since when does CPS=CTU?
Jesus, a drunken, bitter Karen Dunning-Kruger is not a pretty sight
Go to bed and sleep it off
Thought you would find this observation interesting. California lives up to its reputation as a regulatory nightmare. I’m looking over the disclosure package on a house there (for my daughter) and it contains 77 documents totaling 431 pages. That’s actually pretty typical. I think the last one was over 500 pages.
Obviously, when you throw this much at the buyer then end up not looking at anything.
“Obviously, when you throw this much at the buyer then end up not looking at anything.”
Thanks for the tidbit Gary. But isn’t the reason they don’t read it is because it doesn’t matter? Who cares if the foundation is damaged because there is NO negotiations. It’s take it or leave it, especially in a red hot market like this.
The sellers never fix anything. Lead paint? Too bad. Buyer’s problem. Bad roof? Oh well. It’s the California Dream.
But, yes, nothing would surprise me that there would be that many pages of disclosures.
It should matter because if you can choose between a house that needs a new foundation and one that doesn’t it should inform your decision about how much to bid for one vs. the other.
Don’t know if I mentioned it or not but that one house my daughter bid on did need a new foundation so they mentally added that into their cost. In hindsight they are glad they lost that house. They feel like there are better deals out there.
“It should matter because if you can choose between a house that needs a new foundation and one that doesn’t it should inform your decision”
Yeah, one is actually a house, and the other is basically land + a right to rebuild (likely w/ less recovery from home insurer, if there is a casualty before repair) with an indeterminate time-limited house for now.
What happens if/when the music stops? Then you have something you will have to fix or deduct from your sale price in the future, even if a tolerable issue today.
“Don’t know if I mentioned it or not but that one house my daughter bid on did need a new foundation so they mentally added that into their cost. In hindsight they are glad they lost that house. They feel like there are better deals out there.”
OMG. A new foundation in the Bay Area? What a horror.
A few weeks ago there was a swarm of earthquakes in Southern California, that in the past in that location, have led to a big quake further up on the San Andreas. So far, it has not (obviously.) But one is coming. Long overdue. The earthquake scientists have been more vocal recently.
Yikes.
“Who cares if the foundation is damaged because there is NO negotiations. It’s take it or leave it, especially in a red hot market like this. ”
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Four words, Sabrina: Fraud In The Inducement.
“Four words, Sabrina: Fraud In The Inducement.”
Not in California johnc. Take it or leave it. They disclose everything, if you bother to read it, but they’re not fixing anything or doing anything about it. If you want the house, you get the house.
Good times.