Market Conditions: Strong Condo Sales Drive Highest February Sales in 14 Years
The Illinois Association of Realtors is out with the February 2021 sales data.
The hot pandemic housing market continued in Chicago, the Chicagoland area and the entire state of Illinois.
In the city of Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in February 2021 totaled 1,628 homes sold, up 8.8 percent from February 2020 sales of 1,496 homes.
The median price of a home in Chicago in February 2021 was $320,000, up 10.3 percent compared to February 2020 when it was $290,000.
Here is the sales data for February going back to 1997 (courtesy of G):
- 1997: 881 sales
- 1998: 991
- 2000: 1383
- 2001: 1151
- 2002: 1677
- 2003: 1566
- 2004: 1814
- 2005: 2228
- 2006: 1855
- 2007: 1703
- 2008: 1454
- 2009: 870
- 2010: 1257
- 2011: 1092
- 2012: 1250
- 2013: 1411
- 2014: 1361
- 2015: 1497
- 2016: 1567
- 2017: 1529
- 2018: 1535
- 2019: 1449
- 2020: 1496
- 2021: 1628
Here is the Median Price Data also going back to 1997 (thanks G!):
- 1997: $117,000
- 1998: $132,000
- 1999: $143,750
- 2000: $161,500
- 2001: $180,200
- 2002: $212,000
- 2003: $215,000
- 2004: $229,900
- 2005: $268,900
- 2006: $267,500
- 2007: $270,000
- 2008: $290,000
- 2009: $218,125 (with 31% being REO/Short Sales)
- 2010: $176,000 (with 46% being REO/Short Sales)
- 2011: $150,250 (with 50% being REO/Short Sales)
- 2012: $140,300 (with 52% being REO/Short Sales)
- 2013: $158,000
- 2014 $175,000
- 2015: $212,000
- 2016: $236,000
- 2017: $246,000
- 2018: $272,000
- 2019: $272,500
- 2020: $290,000
- 2021: $320,000
“We are thrilled to see the strong market continue into February, which may lead to one of the strongest first quarters we’ve seen in the real estate market in years,” said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and vice president of brokerage services at Coldwell Banker Realty.
“February saw condo closed sales increase 16.2 percent, outpacing single-family home closed sales, which decreased 1.8 percent. Since single-family homes have been flying off the market since last summer, we are glad to see condo inventory drive February sales.”
Lack of inventory continues to be the big story.
Statewide, homes for sale fell 49.9% to 24,358 from 48,636 a year ago.
The press release didn’t state it, but that has to be a record, or near record, year-over-year decline in inventory.
In Chicago, inventory also fell 10.8% to 7,426 from 8,329.
Days on the market in Chicago fell one day to 51 from 52 days.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate actually rose in the month, for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic hit, to 2.81% from 2.74% in January.
That’s still well under the average rate of 3.47% in February 2020, however.
“While February’s bitter weather dampened that month’s housing sales compared to January, sales were up almost 15 percent from a year ago in Chicago and 12 percent in Illinois,” said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, emeritus director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois.
“Price appreciation also continued with median prices up over 12 percent from a year ago in Chicago and 14 percent in Illinois. Further, these positive trends in sales and prices are expected to continue for March, April and May.”
A secondary story is the strength of Chicago’s condo market. Single family home sales actually fell year-over-year by 1.8% so it was the strong condo sales that boosted the market.
If the downtown condo market is grim, where are all these condo sales happening?
Or are some buyers snapping up downtown bargains?
Illinois continues double-digit home sales and price increases in February [Illinois Association of Realtors, Press Release, March 22, 2021]
“In Chicago, inventory also fell 10.8% to 7,426 from 8,329.
Days on the market in Chicago fell one day to 51 from 52 days.”
Without major price spikes, seems to indicate that the market is hitting an equilibrium
Kinda surprising that housing (in Chicago) as an asset class isnt moving up with JPoww and the magical printing press going Brrrr
Loop condo sales are highly variable month to month but they’ve been coming back over the last few months. February was up 22% over last year.
“Loop condo sales are highly variable month to month but they’ve been coming back over the last few months. February was up 22% over last year”
Is the Loop comprised of the area (TFO) outlined previously?
You have any pricing breakdowns?
TIA
If the Fed wasn’t oblivious to the real inflation, and Powell continually rocking fully clothed sitting on the shower floor reciting to himself “everything is okay, everything is okay”. and the actually raised rates.
Would the bump in rates really, I mean actually really hurt this odd housing market at this time and forward the next year?
‘When I was growing up, my family was so poor we couldn’t afford to pay attention’
-Lawrence Tureaud
I must have goofed up my post sorry if this is a duplicate.
I wonder if the Fed actually stopped putting their head in the sand on inflation and Powell stop crying in the shower repeating to himself “everything will be okay, everything will be okay” and they just raised rates.
Would the higher rates truly and actually cause any ripple in todays and for the next years odd defy common sense housing market? Or is RE gonna do what RE gonna do?
“When I was growing up, my family was so poor we couldn’t afford to pay attention”
-Lawrence Tureaud
“Lack of inventory continues to be the big story”
Actually, to put my anon(ufo) hat on, the term in this cause for RE is not ‘lack of inventory’ because the inventory is always there, it really should be stated as ‘lack of AVAILABLE inventory’
Just saying.
“In the city of Chicago, home sales (single-family and condominiums) in February 2021 totaled 1,628 homes sold, up 8.8 percent from February 2020 sales of 1,496 homes.”
This number is starting to come down if you look at the month-to-month data. November was up 17.6%, December 17.3%, January 14.2%, February 8.8% compared to the year before. I guess will find out next month how much of February’s deceleration was weather related.
February was the last month before rates started to spike. It will be interesting to see if this trend accelerates with May/June reported data.
National mortgage applications have been dropping recently with the spike. I imagine Chicago is not immune from this either.
The median price increase decelerated as well in February as January was 15% but 10% now. How are they calculating median increases for the city as it looks like there are different methodologies as one comment says:
“the median price of a home in Chicago in February 2021 was $320,000, up 10.3 percent compared to February 2020 when it was $290,000.”
Another comment says “price appreciation also continued with median prices up over 12 percent from a year ago in Chicago”
“Would the higher rates truly and actually cause any ripple in todays and for the next years odd defy common sense housing market? Or is RE gonna do what RE gonna do?”
It seems like RE gonna do what RE gonna do. 30 year mortgage rates spiked to >3.5% now. This should start to decelerate the housing market in the coming months. This was done even though the FED keeps reiterating it’s not raising rates.
Given the FED jawboning there shouldn’t be a ripple effect since any credit-worthy business can still load up on cheap debt and LIBOR has remained low. In some cases durable goods based industries should see a boon as they can pass on higher commodity and input costs to the end customer which will help their bottom line. In other industries specifically asset-lite tech companies inflation hurts their present values as they are based on future earnings which don’t increase alongside inflation.
The Covid economy has been so bizarre and has defied traditional logic in certain areas specifically housing.
“The Covid economy has been so bizarre and has defied traditional logic in certain areas specifically housing.”
We just watched Half the states, the Federal Government, intelligence agencies, the media, Big tech and Wall Street spend 4 years undermining a president and then crushing the economy on purpose to make sure their plans go uninterrupted. Millions of white people took to the streets to call black cops racists. This is not normal and the winds of change they are pushing against are not going away no matter how big a clown show they put on and how many paper dollars they print. I think it gets much weirder going forward. Dont buy houses, buy land. BBBBBBRRRRR to infinity!
“Is the Loop comprised of the area (TFO) outlined previously?”
South of river, east of river, north of Roosevelt and not in the lake
“You have any pricing breakdowns?”
I could. Depends on how you want to slice it.
““Is the Loop comprised of the area (TFO) outlined previously?”
South of river, east of river, north of Roosevelt and not in the lake”
I think it’s silly to call the Loop an area that goes only one block North, but 2/3 mile south, of the physical loop.
But that’s in part a legacy of when there was basically zero residential South of river, east of river, north of Congress and not in the lake.
“South of river, east of river, north of Roosevelt and not in the lake”
Think we were talking Cermak to the S and North Ave to the N
“I could. Depends on how you want to slice it.”
<$300
$301<X<$500
$601<X<$1.5
Thanks
“Think we were talking Cermak to the S and North Ave to the N”
That was “downtown”, which has been bigger than the Loop for a long time.
Zoning code has another definition of downtown:
“the downtown area is defined as an area bounded by: Division Street; Lake Michigan; the Stevenson Expressway; the CTA red line right-of-way; Cermak Road; Stewart Avenue; the South Branch of the Chicago River; 16th Street; the Dan Ryan Expressway; the Eisenhower Expressway; Ashland Avenue; Ogden Avenue; Hubbard Street; the Kennedy Expressway; Ogden Avenue; Chicago Avenue; North Halsted Street; and the North Branch Canal.”
The problem with breaking the data down by price range in such a small area is that it’s all noise. But I’ll just tell you that 1.5 MM went from nothing through November to 9 in February. But these groupings only have like 8 – 18 closings in them.
“ That was “downtown”, which has been bigger than the Loop for a long time.”
My mistake
Thanks Gary – trying to get som clarity wrt the driver for median price, mix vs escalating prices
With an eviction & foreclosure moratorium until June 30th, 2021 there is no “housing market”. This is fantasy land and people buying now are the ultimate fools.
“With an eviction & foreclosure moratorium until June 30th, 2021 there is no “housing market”. This is fantasy land and people buying now are the ultimate fools.”
More bearish comments from Bob the Bear who will be completely wrong as the US economy comes roaring out of this pandemic.
How many homeowners aren’t paying in Chicago? How many will just contact their banks and refinance this summer or sell the property and pay off the loan?
Home prices up double digits year over year. Plenty of equity. Gives them options.
In Chicago, would take years for any foreclosed properties to come on the market. Literally wouldn’t be until 2025 and beyond. Otherwise, they’ll just short sale them. But will they even have to? Most will have equity.
Again, this group of owners is the best in the last 20 years.
If distressed owners start listing, will provide much needed inventory.
“We just watched Half the states, the Federal Government, intelligence agencies, the media, Big tech and Wall Street spend 4 years undermining a president and then crushing the economy on purpose to make sure their plans go uninterrupted.”
WHUT???
US economy had the lowest unemployment in 50 years pre-COVID. Stock market at all-time highs.
US economy had gone the longest in the modern era without a recession and a record number of months with job growth.
“crushing the economy”???
What world you living in Ed? Helmethofer’s?
“This should start to decelerate the housing market in the coming months.”
It’s not high enough. Has to go up to at least 3.75% or 4%.
In the past, it has taken about a full point to see a real slowdown.
But we’re in a whole new cycle now. If people are going to be working from home forever, they’re going to move to different properties. They want home offices now (in the plural). They want a backyard or a rooftop deck.
Developers building those new 3,000 apartments in Fulton market won’t just build one bedrooms. They will be one bedrooms with small spaces that can be used for a home office (not as big as a “den” but big enough for at least a desk- with separation from the rest of the living space.)
The home office is the new kitchen island.
This ensures that there will be high activity in the US housing market for months, and years, to come as there’s not enough inventory for all those Millennials who are renting to buy and those who have bought, to buy something different that now meets their needs.
Illinois inventory dropping 50% is stunning. Just 25,000 units throughout the whole state, with 8,000 of them in Chicago, leaves almost nothing everywhere else, including the suburbs.
It’s incredible. I’ve never seen a housing market this hot before. In 2006-2008 there was a TON of inventory. Builders overbuilt then. But not now.
“The Covid economy has been so bizarre and has defied traditional logic in certain areas specifically housing.”
Covid wasn’t ever going to matter.
The biggest group of Millennials, aged 28-32, was always going to be buying homes after they married and wanted to start families. It was always going to happen in 2020 to 2024. Demographics told us that.
2020 to 2024 was always going to be a strong market.
In fact, 2020 in Chicago started out strong even pre-COVID. Both January and February 2020 were strong months.
BUT- combined with everyone else wanting to move at the same time due to a global pandemic?
Now THAT was unforeseen.
The hot market got red hot thanks to COVID.
“This number is starting to come down if you look at the month-to-month data. November was up 17.6%, December 17.3%, January 14.2%, February 8.8% compared to the year before.”
Month to month is not how housing data works WP.
Housing is seasonal. You have to compare year-over-year.
Something else to keep in mind about the monthly data, is that we’re about to enter the months impacted by COVID. It will skew the data.
Sales fell in the first few months of pandemic as people simply stayed at home and didn’t go out to buy. And then they soared later.
Year-over-year comparisons are going to be skewed.
“Actually, to put my anon(ufo) hat on, the term in this cause for RE is not ‘lack of inventory’ because the inventory is always there, it really should be stated as ‘lack of AVAILABLE inventory’”
Lack of “for sale” inventory?
“I wonder if the Fed actually stopped putting their head in the sand on inflation and Powell stop crying in the shower repeating to himself “everything will be okay, everything will be okay” and they just raised rates.”
What inflation?
Only a few signs of it due to supply chain challenges. Those should go away in the next 6 months.
One thing that could hold back the Chicago market is really the lack of single family homes for sale.
If you are looking, it is terrible out there.
” the lack of single family homes for sale”
The lack of decent, fairly priced, SFH for sale. Plenty of junk and too-expensive-for-what-they-are places.
“It’s not high enough. Has to go up to at least 3.75% or 4%.
In the past, it has taken about a full point to see a real slowdown.”
I said decelerate not decline. Please understand the difference.
“Month to month is not how housing data works WP.”
Those are year over year trends if you read and understood the post. The YoY increases are decelerating. If it wasn’t December, January, February would all increase at roughly the same percentage as the previous year.
It’s now 4 months in a row of data showing this. That seems like a trend and that’s comparing pre-covid numbers. It may be difficult to compare March – May data given the abruptness of the changes.
“What inflation?
Only a few signs of it due to supply chain challenges. Those should go away in the next 6 months.”
Every client I talk with is experiencing a combination of commodity price increases and supply chain constraints. However, the dynamic has shifted to commodity price inflation being the number one issue with supply chain number two.
You see this in survey data as well as the #1 financial risk cited by investors now is inflation not Covid.
Let’s see the FED’s latest Beige book summary which cites inflation six times in March’s findings:
“San Francisco Economic activity in the District expanded at a modest pace as labor markets deteriorated somewhat. Wages and inflation picked up.”
“Looking ahead one year, firms now anticipate receiving moderately higher prices for their own goods and services – a significant increase from one quarter earlier.”
“The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey showed year-over-year unit costs increased notably to 2.1 percent in February, up from 1.8 percent in January. Year-ahead expectations remained relatively unchanged at 2.2 percent.”
“Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Inflation pressures have increased, as contacts reported moderate increases in prices; however, most contacts believe it will be difficult to pass on further price increases.”
“Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Inflation has picked up, driven largely by increases in energy prices.”
“Prices Inflation picked up modestly over the reporting period. Most of this increase was driven by hikes in oil and electricity prices, with only a few firms being able to pass on the higher costs to final consumers. Prices of building materials, such as lumber, wallboard, steel, and asphalt, continued to rise from already high levels. Select agricultural products also saw modest price increases, including wheat, corn, and soybeans. Contacts in the hospitality and financial services sectors reported either flat or decreasing prices.”
So input prices increasing primarily related to commodity or wage pressures that can’t be passed along to end customers = decreased profits for companies and a potential risk of the dreaded word stagflation risk for certain industries but certainly too early to tell as some commodity prices could reverse and leg lower which has started to occur over the past few weeks in the oil market.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202103.htm
From Chicago’s March beige book which directly contradicts Sabrinas booming economic theory come Memorial Day through the rest of the year.
“Contacts expected growth to pick up in the coming months, but most did not expect to see full recovery until at least the first half of 2022.”
“Overall, employment was little changed over the reporting period, though contacts expected a moderate increase over the next 12 months.”
“many contacts continued to experience difficulty in hiring workers, especially at the entry level. One electronics manufacturer was still struggling to fill open positions despite implementing training programs and building relationships with technical schools. Several contacts expressed concern that unemployment benefits were putting a damper on worker availability.”
“Consumer and producer prices both increased modestly. Input costs, however, increased moderately, driven by rising prices for raw materials, shipping, and energy. Numerous manufacturing contacts reported large price increases for primary metals and metal products, particularly copper and steel. Energy prices increased, with some prices spiking because of cold weather.”
“Demand for travel, hospitality, and other leisure-related activities remained weak.”
“Contacts anticipated that vehicle inventories would decline even further because a shortage of microchips had slowed production, and dealers expected inventory levels to be uncomfortably low until at least the second half of the year.”
“Contacts continued to report that bottlenecks in shipping, particularly at West Coast ports, were causing delayed deliveries.”
“Commercial real estate activity was flat. The office sector continued to struggle. Contacts indicated that some office tenants were downsizing their footprint in response to the pandemic. There were also reports of leasing deals that included long periods of free rent. Prices and rents fell slightly, and the availability of sublease space increased slightly.”
“Business loan standards tightened slightly overall. In consumer markets, loan demand decreased slightly, though residential mortgage activity remained strong. Standards for consumer loans tightened slightly and loan quality remained unchanged on balance. A contact at an organization that assists consumers in obtaining home loans noted that many clients who were participating in the federal government’s COVID-19 mortgage forbearance program were concerned about whether their incomes would recover enough for them to resume making payments in June, when the program is set to expire.”
I’m not gonna read all that. I’m happy for you, though. Or sorry that happened.
So if employers are having trouble recruiting does that mean they are paying too little?
Serious question, what’s the difference between moderately and modestly in this case?
“Serious question, what’s the difference between moderately and modestly in this case?”
[paywall:]
https://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-the-difference-between-moderate-and-modest-growth-in-the-feds-beige-book-which-is-better-1453217728
Thanks, first sentence sums it up enough.
And Lightfoot just through cold water on Sabrina’s booming reopening thesis today:
“Mayor Lori Lightfoot on Wednesday said she is “very concerned” that the city could see another surge in the pandemic, and said the city won’t be loosening existing coronavirus restrictions anytime soon.”
“If you look at our data in the last week to 10 days, it feels like October, where we saw the second surge happen,” Lightfoot said Wednesday afternoon. “Where we should be at this point in the arc of the virus is cases going down, not up. We’ve seen a significant uptick in the number of daily cases just over the past week, which is definitely concerning.”
This is quite a divergence. Pritzker last week announces Phase 4 bridge phase once 75% of 65+ Illinoans are vaccinated which should happen sometime early/mid next month. Also announces phase 5 begins i.e. no restrictions except masks (until CDC says they aren’t needed) once 50% of the State’s 16+ population is vaccinated.
Either Pritzker isn’t telling us the truth on these variants or Lightfoot is a hyperbolic fearmonger comparing this “surge” to October’s when we didn’t have a vaccine and ended up shutting down the city for ~3 months.
I wonder if this flatlines the uptick in apartment leasing activity that had recently started. Why sign a one year lease in Chicago with the uncertainty and the potential for summer being canceled again.
Also, the downtown offices that were/are eyeing post-Memorial day returns do they now push their dates to tentative post 4th of July post-Labor Day.
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2021/03/24/mayor-lori-lightfoot-very-concerned-covid-19-case-increase-coronavirus-pandemic/
WP–it’s a little from each column, covered with a heaping scoop of Chicago-style petty corruption and incompetent management in vaccine distribution, which is going to seriously slow hitting 75-for-65+ and 50-for-16+ among city residents, unless a lot more people go outside city limits to get vaccinated.
Know someone who has been turned away multiple times for ‘not qualifying’ for Phase 1B–it’s more important at this point to put needles in arms than to be 100% certain that only 1B v 1C people are getting the jab. Eyes are on the optics, rather than the prize, and it will fuck.shit.up.
Now that a lot (probably not enough though) of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated it’s probably more important to focus on hospitalizations rather than cases. If it’s a lot of low risk folks spreading the virus among themselves and not putting people in hospitals then we can probably afford more cases.
“If it’s a lot of low risk folks spreading the virus among themselves and not putting people in hospitals then we can probably afford more cases.”
Hospitalizations are spiking again in Michigan. Mostly 12 to 40 year olds.
Also, 89 people have gotten COVID in Minnesota who have been vaccinated. None died. Those that were hospitalized had milder cases.
The vaccine doesn’t give you 100% immunity. Even with Pfizer’s shot, 5 out of 100 will still get COVID if exposed.
The virus doesn’t care about the vulnerable. It just looks for hosts. Chicago hasn’t vaccinated enough people yet.
“Eyes are on the optics, rather than the prize, and it will fuck.shit.up.”
84% of Chicago will be eligible as of Monday. But when you roll it out like that, without enough doses to handle the surge, it means fewer people end up getting the vaccine.
There are plenty of vaccines available downstate because many aren’t getting it down there. If you have a car and don’t mind driving, can go down there.
“And Lightfoot just through cold water on Sabrina’s booming reopening thesis today:”
Nope. It does nothing of the sort.
The city is going to boom by this summer.
And yes, we’re going to have a fourth outbreak. Nationwide. Just like Europe. It’s already on the way.
23 states have rising cases. Chicago is seeing a big surge in the 12 to 40 year olds again- just like in October before that surge. And everyone is eating freely indoors while the British variant is spreading.
Should be over by the end of May- fingers crossed.
Be vigilant everyone. We don’t have herd immunity yet.
“I wonder if this flatlines the uptick in apartment leasing activity that had recently started. Why sign a one year lease in Chicago with the uncertainty and the potential for summer being canceled again.”
Um…because it’s NOT going to be cancelled.
Again, the wishing for the doom when everything is different this March compared to last March. We’ve been living with this virus for a year. No one sees the need to panic and move home with mom and dad in the suburbs anymore.
In a week they’ll be at the Cubs home opener.
“The YoY increases are decelerating.”
Again, this is NOT how housing data works. It’s year over year over year over year. All you need is growth because you had growth the year before. Growth year over year over year is really hard to sustain once you get double digit growth- as we’ve had. Because that means if you have 15% one year and 8% the next, that it’s 23% growth over 2 years which is mega-red hot. Sizzling hot.
It cannot keep that level of growth.
And, no, February isn’t roughly the same every year for the reasons given above. It’s year over year growth. You have to BEAT the prior year to see further gains.
So, yeah, you’re clueless dude. You just don’t know what you’re talking about when looking at the data.
“I said decelerate not decline. Please understand the difference.”
Oh, so you admit the housing market is red hot and the higher rates are going to cool the hotness but it will still remain hot?
Then we agree.
But it won’t be 3.5%. It will be 3.75% which will cool it.
Nothing is going to “decline” right now. And not for the next 3 to 4 years.
Unless rates were to significantly spike higher to 5% or 6% and then all bets are off. Let’s hope the Fed doesn’t allow that to happen.
“The lack of decent, fairly priced, SFH for sale. Plenty of junk and too-expensive-for-what-they-are places.”
No. You are wrong on this anon(tfo). The junk is selling too.
There is literally just 2 months worth of single family homes on the market CITYWIDE. So it’s even worse in some individual neighborhoods. There literally is almost nothing on the market in some neighborhoods- junky or not.
This is true statewide. No way you get a drop of 50% in inventory without even the junk selling.
Everything is selling like hotcakes right now. Everything.
“which is going to seriously slow hitting 75-for-65+ and 50-for-16+ among city residents, unless a lot more people go outside city limits to get vaccinated.”
The data shows on net more people are coming into the city from the burbs to get shots than people from the city going outside the city. Vaccination rates would be the same in the city compared to the county and burbs if this disparity did not occur.
Further, the city represents 21% of the states population so the rest of the state will have to represent an outsized share to offset lower vaccinations in the city to re-open sooner.
66% of seniors in State have already received one dose. I imagine that as a percentage of the State’s senior population a higher percentage live outside the city.
“Also, 89 people have gotten COVID in Minnesota who have been vaccinated.”
Oh wow 89 or less than 0.1% of total vaccinated Minnesotans. I remember 10 months ago when everyone freaked about about kids getting Kawasaki disease from Covid. That was in the news cycle for a week or two. Haven’t heard anything since.
“Nope. It does nothing of the sort.
The city is going to boom by this summer.
And yes, we’re going to have a fourth outbreak. Nationwide. Just like Europe. It’s already on the way.
Should be over by the end of May- fingers crossed.”
So you are predicting a 4th (really 3rd) surge but also say it will be over by Memorial Day and the city is going to boom? What kind of BS prediction is this? The two previous surges lasted 3 months and everything closed but for some reason this surge will last less than 2 months and everything will open up right away? yeah ok…..
Putting aside your “surge” analysis there will obviously be a “bump” but not a surge which will be short lived as we continue to vaccinate more people and have already provided at least one shot to 66% of the 65+ population and 32% of the entire state.
Lightfoot and Arwady have said the city is moving slower through the vaccination process than the state as a whole and Lightfoot has put a hold on further re-opening anything indefinitely. She previously said the city would re-open slower than the State (that was before the bump).
You will be waiting until around the 4th of July for further reopening’s in the city. Chicago will not open up their vaccination sites to all residents in the city until the end of April meaning it will take a minimum two months to cycle through the majority of the city’s population for both shots which puts us to the end of June (unless we opt for more J&J supply compared to Pfizer/Moderna).
You can’t compare the US to Europe anymore. The US has provided at least one dose to 26% of the country (14% fully vaccinated) per the NY Times homepage which primary went to the 65+ year old population who are most susceptible to hospitalizations and death especially if they are fat.
Europe on the other hand has completely bungled their rollout. Most countries outside of the UK have vaccinated ~5% of their country, don’t have enough supply of the vaccine as they asked Biden to send some of ours there earlier in the month, and in some countries have recommended people >65 not get the vaccine because of AstraZeneca incompetence. The variant took hold of Europe a month before we realized it was even here. So to compare the US and Europe today makes not sense.
“There is literally just 2 months worth of single family homes on the market CITYWIDE. So it’s even worse in some individual neighborhoods. There literally is almost nothing on the market in some neighborhoods- junky or not.”
Junk is selling on the NW, being torn down and being built too huge. Again just like 2005 and 2006. (see a pattern?).
Soon this cycle will stop, and happen again in 10 years then eventually the single level 2 bedroom starter home will be extinct. I feel for the late GenZ kids and Gen alpha’s as the only starter home that will be available and/or affordable is a crappy 2/2 condo.
“Because that means if you have 15% one year and 8% the next, that it’s 23% growth over 2 years which is mega-red hot. Sizzling hot.”
We are comparing one years worth of data. Where are you getting two years? How much wine did you have?
“Oh, so you admit the housing market is red hot and the higher rates are going to cool the hotness but it will still remain hot?”
Where did I say it was red hot? I said it was decelerating. Google definitions of hot/accelerating, decelerating, and declining.
Further, I said in January that inventory would be higher by YE 2021 then it was at YE 2020. I said this trend would start to occur in the 2H of 2021. We aren’t even through Q1 yet so the decelerating narrative fits the underlying thesis. We will see if it holds.
Oh my, I just can’t stand Lightfoot, even before the ‘rona, now it is even more.
I can list 100’s of things pre ‘rona that she has failed at and only 2 that she did good. Now that list for supreme fails is grown larger.
The worst is I, the chateratti, and rest of Chicago have no clue what the heck she is going to do about opening up (and closing) the city. She is too dang unpredictable and that is what is p***ing me off. At least with round mound Pritzker you can easily predict his response/actions to things.
Shots or no Shots, Mask or no Masks, lockdown or no lockdown. The real question is how are the ‘normal’ folk going to handle the difference in rules between state (and city) lines?
“There literally is almost nothing on the market in some neighborhoods- junky or not”
February NowCast FHA delinquency shows Chicago-Naperville-Evanston with the 3rd highest FHA serious delinquencies in the country at 14.9% with 21.8% total delinquency. That’s 26K homes in the metro area that are seriously delinquent defined as 90+ days past due. Most will likely have to list and sell soon.
https://www.aei.org/nowcast-10-metros-most-threatened-by-high-numbers-of-fha-delinquencies-february-2021/
“The vaccine doesn’t give you 100% immunity. Even with Pfizer’s shot, 5 out of 100 will still get COVID if exposed.”
That is not how effectiveness percentages work. I don’t blame you though as it’s commonly misunderstood. The 95% figure means that those that receive the vaccine have a 95% less likelihood in getting symptomatic COVID than those who have not. Your stat would suggest that everyone exposed to COVID in the control group got symptomatic COVID which is not the case. (Of course, that would be impossible to determine so nobody knows that percentage).
For some perspective, 0.04% of those receiving the vaccine in the studies got symptomatic COVID. That’s 1 in 2,500. No way to know how many in those 2,500 were exposed to COVID but in the non-vaccinated group, the figure of symptomatic COVID was 95 in 2,500 (or about 4%).
For additional context, this effectiveness is similar to the MMR vaccine which is 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps. That is one of the most effective vaccines in all of mankind. The flu vaccine is between 40 and 60% effective.
Now, Pfizer and Moderna studies were US-centric prior to the proliferation of variants. JnJ’s reported effectiveness was “only” 66%. But it’s apples and oranges because they defined symptomatic COVID differently and was more broadly studied in countries were variants were more common (it was also conducted later when variants were more widespread just based on timing). I would expect the 95% figure would be lower if those same conditions existed when Pfizer and Moderna conducted their studies.
Having said all the above, the most important and impressive result is that ALL THREE have been basically 100% effective in preventing hospitalizations and death. That’s what’s important. The vaccines will never be 100% to ensure that you cannot catch COVID, but if it can basically eliminate the possibility of hospitalization and death, and we can turn COVID into the common cold or flu, that’s a major success and we could then hopefully go back to more normal life as COVID is likely not going to go away completely.
“That is not how effectiveness percentages work.”
The doctors themselves when discussing the Minnesota cases said about 5 out of 100 would get COVID even with the vaccine. I was just quoting what they said.
The cases would not be as severe if they didn’t get it at all.
“That’s 26K homes in the metro area that are seriously delinquent defined as 90+ days past due. Most will likely have to list and sell soon.”
Nah. They don’t have to “list and sell” at all. All they have to do is go to their bank and say, “I am working again. I want to refinance.”
And if half of that number ever does comes on the market, hooray! Inventory has shrunk from 50,000 in the state to 25,000 in February. Suburbs are in desperate need of over 10,000 properties. The city too.
Here’s a 3-bedroom townhouse in Landmark Village. I’ve cribbed about this gated community in the past. Listed for $475,000. Under contract in just 2 days.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2801-N-Wolcott-Ave-60657/unit-B/home/13358848
“Further, I said in January that inventory would be higher by YE 2021 then it was at YE 2020.”
When inventory is at record lows, it’s not hard for it to be “higher.”
But most of the inventory outside of downtown has already cleared. And single family home inventory will not be higher.
I don’t expect the hundreds of $1 million+ new construction condos to sell by the end of the year but they are slowly being removed from the market. Just saw a $4 million+ closing in One Bennett Park.
Still, it’s going to take several years to absorb that many properties at those price points.
“We are comparing one years worth of data. Where are you getting two years? How much wine did you have?”
This is why you don’t understand housing data WP. You just don’t. Move on.
Housing data is year-over-year. The 8% figure is based off of LAST YEAR. If it’s “down” from the 15% growth the year before (or whatever it was), that means a comp of 23% over the 2 year time period.
Red hot.
Sizzling hot.
Any monthly sales numbers higher than the prior year indicates a growing market. You will, inevitably, see that monthly percentage number go lower as no housing market can sustain double digit sales growth for multiple years. It would literally mean 30%+ growth after 3 years which is an incredible bull market. You could get that hot in a housing boom scenario like we saw in the early 2000s. But it doesn’t last very long.
April and May’s comps will be easy to lap from last year so those months should see higher growth, most likely. Those were the months of depressed closings due to covid last year.
Similarly, June, July and August will be hard months to lap yoy because of the surge in demand on the reopen. But even a negative sales number in those months won’t indicate a “slowing” because of last year’s hot comp.
So a 17% June 2020 comp could result in a 2% decline in June 2021. It would still mean a 15% 2-year jump which doesn’t mean the housing market is slowing. It’s still red hot.
That’s also why the actual number of homes sold tells you more about the story than the headline “growth” number.
Chicago has been at 14 year highs for monthly sales the last 3 months. THAT tells you how hot the market is.
We’ve entered into a new housing cycle now, driven by the next generation of buyers. The bull housing cycles last several years.
We are in the first inning.
And until there’s inventory or mortgage rates spike a lot higher, prices will continue to rise.
Junk is selling on the NW, being torn down and being built too huge. Again just like 2005 and 2006. (see a pattern?).
Yeah, there’s a demand for “new.” The old junk houses that weren’t maintained NEED to be replaced. This is normal in a bull housing market.
The developers aren’t building enough new homes that meet the needs of today’s families (home offices etc.) The market will speak to get it built some other way and that will be with teardowns etc.
And isn’t it a little extreme to say the single family starter home will be “extinct”?
There are thousands of bungalows all over the south and west side. If middle class is priced out, they will move to new neighborhoods. This is why South Shore and Woodlawn are booming.
And you can still get a bungalow under $300,000 in some north side neighborhoods like Jefferson Park. Might need work though.
Chicago is NOT San Francisco, which, literally, doesn’t have ANY starter single family homes.
“So you are predicting a 4th (really 3rd) surge but also say it will be over by Memorial Day and the city is going to boom?”
Yes. Chicago is already in another outbreak. Numbers will continue to rise the next few weeks. Indoor dining will probably be restricted again which is why it’s good the weather is getting better so we can all eat in the outdoor patios again.
Chicago has vaccinated 11%. It’s no different than Germany at 8.5%. And they have just extended their lockdown another 3 weeks.
British variant spreads extremely quickly. Within minutes in an enclosed area. It is circulating. We don’t have enough immunized and aren’t anywhere close to herd immunity.
By May, we will be. We’ll have a 4th outbreak over the next few weeks (see Michigan, which appears to be about 2 weeks ahead of us) and then we’ll change our behavior again and numbers will come down before the summer reopens begins in earnest.
Oh- and this 4th outbreak won’t really stop the city from booming. The boom has already begun. Tourists are already back. Restaurants filling. Fans will be in Wrigley next week.
“Chicago will not open up their vaccination sites to all residents in the city until the end of April”
Wrong WP. As of Monday, 84% of Chicagoans are eligible to get the vaccine through 1C. The problem is, there aren’t enough doses even though United Center is doing close to 6,000 shots a day. But we are getting there, slowly and surely. It won’t be fast enough to avoid the current outbreak- which is already happening.
“Wrong WP. As of Monday, 84% of Chicagoans are eligible to get the vaccine through 1C.”
84% of Chicagoans are classified as essential workers or have underlying medical conditions? Where do you get your information from?
The city’s own website says May 31st is the beginning date everyone 16+ is eligible to be vaccinated.
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid19-vaccine/home/vaccine-distribution-phases.html
“Yes. Chicago is already in another outbreak. Numbers will continue to rise the next few weeks. Indoor dining will probably be restricted again which is why it’s good the weather is getting better so we can all eat in the outdoor patios again”
Again, you make no sense. If you are predicting some huge surge were we shut everything down except outdoor dining we are not going to be opening up in two months. It will take another month for the surge to fully kick in, another month for it to level out, and another month to decline. From initial surge as re-opening has taken 3 months in each wave so far. Why? It takes one month for cases to build until there’s a meaningful spike in hospitalizations and another month for people to start dying. Please get your head out of the sand.
You are seeing a bump that will level out quicker as hospitalizations won’t surge this round due to the rollout of the vaccine.
“Chicago has vaccinated 11%. It’s no different than Germany at 8.5%. ”
Chicago has fully vaccinated 11%. It has provided one shot to 658K residents per the city’s website or 24% of the city’s population which is ~3x higher than Germany. As of two days ago only 9% of Germans have had the first shot with 3.5% having both shots. That looks like a pretty big difference. Google is your friend. Please use it.
“The problem is, there aren’t enough doses even though United Center is doing close to 6,000 shots a day.”
This isn’t the only place to get vaccinated in the city…. The city did over 15K vaccines yesterday and over 20K the previous two days each. Arwady expects continued ramp in vaccines received to the City in the coming weeks.
Also, you are suggesting there are not enough vaccines and the city’s solution is to increase the eligibility of people able to get the vaccine at the same time. Politicians usually aren’t the smartest but they aren’t this dumb.
Please get your facts straight for once….
” The boom has already begun. Tourists are already back. Restaurants filling. Fans will be in”
Per Sabrina we are going to shut-down the city except outdoor dining but the boom will continue. You heard it here first folks. Hot takes Sabrina has plenty….
Restaurants filling. Go look at OpenTable data. Chicago’s best day this month was this past Sunday and traffic was still down 22% from last year. Every other day it has been at least 35% down and most days been 50%+ or more down from last year including the past two days.
If the weekends have good weather we will be down minimum 20% – 30% from pre-covid. It will start to increase however if cases continue to increase over the next few weeks. If the weather is meh we will continue at 50% or more still.
Per the Chicago Tribune last week “For the week ended March 13, hotel occupancy in Chicago was 37.9%, according to hotel industry market research firm STR. During the same week two years ago, which predates pandemic restrictions, occupancy was 67.4%.”
What tourists are you talking about?
Also the 8K fans at Wrigley and Guaranteed Rate = Boom when combined they hold 80K+ and for a typical game pre-covid Wrigley is at 35K and Guaranteed Rate is ~20K – 25K?
Wow hot. The Fire being back at Soldier Field could help offset but again it’s capacity restricted too.
I don’t know where you are finding this hot Chicago economic thesis currently. It’s better than last summer/fall but booming…. we have a ways to go.
“84% of Chicagoans are classified as essential workers or have underlying medical conditions?”
At least! See this (tho this shows statewide numbers):
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/vaccine/ct-viz-covid-vaccine-eligibility-20210226-djfcn6wth5h3vcvvgahg7m4zxa-htmlstory.html
900k is the Phase 2 population, statewide, out of about 10m over-16 population. So, ~90% are 65+, essential workers or have underlying medical conditions.
“Chicago has fully vaccinated 11%. It has provided one shot to 658K residents per the city’s website or 24% of the city’s population”
Do you know if they are tracking city residents receiving vaccine outside of Cook County?
And that 658k is basically 30% of the 16+ population. Which is pretty good, but leaves ~3m shots to get to 80% of the 16+ having 2 shots. Even ramping up to 50,000 shots per day, every day (fantasy!) that’s two full months. A more realistic 25k/day average puts us at late July.
“Do you know if they are tracking city residents receiving vaccine outside of Cook County?”
The city’s breaks it out by tracking city residents inoculated and total inoculations administered in Chicago.
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid19-vaccine/home/vaccine-data.html
“900k is the Phase 2 population, statewide, out of about 10m over-16 population. So, ~90% are 65+, essential workers or have underlying medical conditions.”
It’s a little misleading to present the data this way. First we already have 32% of the State vaccinated with at least one dose so 32% will be fully vaccinated within two weeks after the States rollout of the next vaccination phase.
Further, the 3.4MM people with high risk conditions are included in other groups in the chart i.e. are already essential workers and 16+ years old, 16+ years old but not essential, or 65+ years old.
It’s a significantly less number. This is further confirmed by the statement
“So, ~90% are 65+, essential workers or have underlying medical conditions.”
There are plenty other professions not mentioned on that list were a material number of people in the state work in i.e. private tech companies or other office jobs in “non-essential” industries.
On top of this there are over 2MM students enrolled in Illinois public schools (ex universities) of which the majority are <16 years old.
There's too much overlap in the data that the Tribune is double counting people.
On top of this it doesn't appear Chicago is having the same criteria as the State's for their 1C phase. Remember IDPH and Chicago act independently from each other in vaccination. They both got vaccine allocation directly from the Feds. The State allocates to everywhere except the City since we get our own supply.
Per NBC Chicago – Chicago's 1C eligibility includes "residents with underlying health conditions and essential workers, including restaurant employees, hotel workers, hairdressers, clergy members, construction workers, delivery drivers, and warehouse workers, among others."
we will see what "others" include but I'm not seeing grocers, gas station, architects/engineers (unless this is considered construction), real estate, insurance, accountants, bankers, finance, Communications and IT, Media, Lawyers, or people that don't have underlying conditions that are 16+ years old among others.
“Yeah, there’s a demand for “new.” The old junk houses that weren’t maintained NEED to be replaced.”
But do they need to be torn down and go from a single floor 2/3br 1 bath with a nice yard, to 3 floor a 6br 5 bath no yard gator deck? feels like 2005 to me?
“If middle class is priced out, they will move to new neighborhoods”
Yes these are *neighborhoods are called OTHER STATES. which of the 10 anecdotal of very close friends of mine would you like? (one best friend, yeah that one hurts). At least in past years we would just lose the family to the suburbs. WFH has opened up the game big.
“And you can still get a bungalow under $300,000 in some north side neighborhoods like Jefferson Park. Might need work though.”
As much as I Always pump Jeff Park as a stellar hood, nobody really buys there. prices reflect. Nobody hereon CC will buy in Portage Park either.
” the Tribune is double counting people”
You just want to argue. I’m out.
“Nobody hereon CC will buy in Portage Park either.”
Icky still counts, man!
““If middle class is priced out, they will move to new neighborhoods”
Yes these are *neighborhoods are called OTHER STATES. which of the 10 anecdotal of very close friends of mine would you like? (one best friend, yeah that one hurts). At least in past years we would just lose the family to the suburbs. WFH has opened up the game big.”
You nailed it groove. I just had a talk with my manager and she said I could move to any state in the US. Every tech worker in a high tax and cost of living state is thinking the same thing if they aren’t tied down by family. Here I come Texas or Florida. I’ll save between 20k and 35k when I add up income tax , sales tax, cheaper rent, and various fees. Plus I can get a 3 bed 2 bath apartment in Florida for $400 less a month then here. In Dallas, a 1 bed 1 bath is $900 a month cheaper than my current place.
“Per Sabrina we are going to shut-down the city except outdoor dining but the boom will continue. You heard it here first folks. Hot takes Sabrina has plenty….”
“She” didn’t always used to be this way. I bet if you went back through her post history you could tell the moment she bought real estate.
Unfortunately for “her” talking up something on the internet rarely translates into the real world.
“As much as I Always pump Jeff Park as a stellar hood, nobody really buys there.”
Why would you if not forced to? When you have kids you no longer need to name drop that you live in the “citayyyy!” to prove to your peers back home in Schaumburg that you’ve made it. So if you’re looking for an affordable bungalow you’re going to pick one near Portage Park/Jefferson Park/etc that isn’t chained to the monstrosity that is Chicago Public School system.
Jefferson & Portage Park are in direct competition with similar places that look the same that aren’t within the city limits. Full grown adults with their head pulled out of their ass who realize there really is no allure in life to having a city proper address over a suburban one from address alone go with the suburb almost every time: smaller and more local control.
I thought I’d seen that the Chicago area itself isn’t losing much, if any, population and that it was downstate that was depopulating (and most of the smaller towns are sad looking as are the former industrial cities – I’m laughing at someone on another blog who was complaining that the poor people living in small farming towns [as in oh those poor people, not literally economically poor] having to subsidize Chicago and I wanted to reply, yeah, if they seceded they’d have to pay everything Chicago pays for themselves).
I don’t even think Woodlawn is middle class anymore – at least with new construction pricing, but has pushed above that lately. Even so they are trying (they being “activists” and some pols in the city – new Alderman among them) to somehow restrict price increases or create affordability by fiat rather than building. And they have said to keep white folk out (I would have to dig, but that was a published quote in a local newspaper) as well.
Are they even able to count people who got vaccinated in Indiana? I know my dental hygienist was because she worked there part time – like back in December.
“Yes these are *neighborhoods are called OTHER STATES. which of the 10 anecdotal of very close friends of mine would you like?”
We’ve talked about this extensively on this blog the last few years.
Most who leave Illinois are moving to the surrounding states. Good for them. It’s a big country. Go where you are happy.
But someone is buying all the properties that have sold in the last year. Those aren’t ghost sales. And they’re happening all over the state.
Chicago is still one of the largest job markets in the country. No matter if you’re working from home, many will still want to be IN the city and where the energy, creativity and action is.
And they’re NOT all leaving. In fact, they just looked at who was moving to Florida from California. In the Bay Area, it was like 800 people who moved to Miami. That’s it. The vast majority who left San Francisco simply moved to the suburbs or interior cities like Sacramento.
The tech workers are NOT leaving. Not even for Austin/Texas. Same low numbers moved there from San Francisco last year too.
Let’s make a list of all the bears on this site.
All the bears are actually quite bullish for the housing market. There are always a lot of bears at the start of a new bull market. It’s only when everyone is bullish that you know the bull market is coming to an end.
We’re just in the first innings of this bull in housing- which is why there are so many bears here.
And they are:
Bob the Bear (of course- and a permabear. Has been bearish for, what, 14 years now?)
Helmethofer (permabear)
Mike HG
Groove77
KK
WP
Sonies?
Am I missing any of the bears?
“As much as I Always pump Jeff Park as a stellar hood, nobody really buys there. prices reflect. Nobody hereon CC will buy in Portage Park either.”
Who said anything about Crib Chatter readers buying in Portage Park? Most aren’t looking there, but some may be. I’ve covered Irving Park a lot over the years, especially Old Irving.
Crib Chatter is geared towards the Green Zone.
“Per Sabrina we are going to shut-down the city except outdoor dining but the boom will continue. You heard it here first folks. Hot takes Sabrina has plenty….”
Yes.
Every city in America is going to boom by this summer and into the end of the year.
GDP was at 4.3% in Q4. It will be much higher throughout this year.
“Again, you make no sense. If you are predicting some huge surge were we shut everything down except outdoor dining we are not going to be opening up in two months.”
Yes. Based on our past heightened restrictions, they last for about 4 weeks. We’re already in this outbreak. Will get more restrictions into mid-April. Will start loosening up in mid-May and fully open again by Memorial Day.
By the way, Santiago Chile just went into lock down. They have had one of the best vaccine rollouts in the world. It wasn’t enough to stop this 4th outbreak.
Our excellent rollout won’t be enough in the US either. The British variant is too contagious.
Be safe everyone. Stay vigilant just another few months.
“Most who leave Illinois are moving to the surrounding states.”
As far as the people who buy and sell most of the types of places discussed on this blog go, anecdotally speaking, I don’t know if that’s entirely accurate. There were about 80 or so of us in my first-year class at big firm in Chicago. Out of those who I’ve maintained any sort of connection with and who left IL, I think one moved to the Minneapolis area, but that’s it (one had always maintained a primary home in OH, but that’s a unique case). I knew one senior associate at the time who commuted from Milwaukee and eventually got a job there, but again, a unique case). A few went to NYC, one to Maine, a couple to the DC area, and a bunch to CA. I’ve met several people here in CO who left Chicago within the past decade (I’d say at least a third of the people we’ve met here are either Chicago (suburb) area natives or started their career there and then moved). But it doesn’t seem like there’s a notable flight of professionals out of the Chicago area and into Indiana, Michigan or Wisconsin. There are a lot of nice suburbs and exurbs around Chicago that allow people the lifestyle/house they want while remaining connected to a major city.
“Most who leave Illinois are moving to the surrounding states. Good for them. It’s a big country. Go where you are happy. ”
Illinois does not on its own produce enough college graduates to fill the large numbers of professional jobs available in Chicago. We must import and recruit grads from all around the midwest, and to some extent, from around the country, which is why the green zone is filled with Big 10 grads and other Big U’s. The green zones tend to be extremely transient neighborhoods. Some of these grads stay here in Chicago but many of them leave, only to be replaced by the next fresh recruits of college grads. All of us can probably rattle off the names of dozens of people we used to know in Chicago but moved elsewhere.
In my opinion, the professionals who remain in Chicago (or the suburbs) after their 20’s usually have at least two of the following: A significant other, family, children, real estate, or a really good job. Chicago is a big, tough city and it’s not easy to be even moderately successful. It takes a lot of work, determination and quite a bit of luck. Not everyone is successful. It’s not easy to meet a spouse, raise children, get a good promotion, or buy good real estate. Many just don’t make it in Chicago but end up being very successful in other states.
As for who is moving to the surrounding states? That’s the native Illinois middle class. They are fleeing the state in large numbers, especially downstate. I have plenty of native friends from various places who now live in surrounding states because home prices (were) cheaper and the taxes are lower, and our surrounding states are better run.
The major short to medium term problem for Chicago (and NYC, SF, LA and few others) is that the pipeline of college grads to the big city has been disrupted; and now FL, CO, AZ, TX are attracting the newest graduates. If that supply line of fresh grads to Chicago gets disrupted, that will have major long term implications for employers, who will be required to seek employees elsewhere now that Chicago and other big cities have lost their allure.
“You nailed it groove”
Thank you MikeQG. It really only relates to those that CAN move. Many folk are not financially mobile.
“Why would you if not forced to? So if you’re looking for an affordable bungalow you’re going to pick one near Portage Park/Jefferson Park/etc that isn’t chained to the monstrosity that is Chicago Public School system.”
Yes the Portage/Jeff park neighborhood schools aint top notch. But the CPS is better than most in the nation for *certain schools in Chicago. Not everyone needs a CPS school criteria for their housing purchase.
We did thats why we chose Norwood Park. If not Jeff Park would have been perfect for us.
“I thought I’d seen that the Chicago area itself isn’t losing much, if any, population”
The continuing early 20 year olds seem to always substitute the population loss.
“Who said anything about Crib Chatter readers buying in Portage Park? Most aren’t looking there, but some may be”
I got nothing wrong with you catering to you market. It’s your sandbox. I agree anytime you have ever posted anything outside of your readers demographic it either gets only 1 or 2 posts or the dang move to the suburb debate ensues.
“Most who leave Illinois are moving to the surrounding states.”
I am not seeing that this time. Colorado seems to be a top one.
“Icky still counts, man!”
I have not seen him in ages. I used to play a weekly games of tennis with an old friend over there. I would see Icky jogging by, Have not seen him out jogging in the area in 3 years.
“ All the bears are actually quite bullish for the housing market. There are always a lot of bears at the start of a new bull market. It’s only when everyone is bullish that you know the bull market is coming to an end.
We’re just in the first innings of this bull in housing- which is why there are so many bears here.”
Do not include me in the list of hosing bears. I just think you are FAR better off investing in equities or real estate in another city than you are in Chicago. We are constantly near the bottom of the list on Case Schiller. Go buy property in Florida, Texas, Seattle, or Nashville if you want magnificent property appreciation.
Chicago will appreciate, albeit at a slower rate and with property taxes that eat a lot of the appreciation.
I am for certain though that in 20 years, the S&P 600 (small cap index) and emerging markets will out perform Chicago real estate down payment money.
now that Chicago and other big cities have lost their allure.
Have they, though? Big cities, I think, are always going to appeal to a certain segment of the population.
I know I’ve talked about his on here before, but I moved to Chicago in ’88. Most of my college friends moved to either Chicago or NY after graduation (with a few going to grad/law/med school in college towns). That was when cities were “dying” (or possibly already dead?). Still, there were great bars and excellent restaurants; happy hours, gallery openings, storefront theatres. Tons of recent college grads.
Now I live half the year in a smaller city. I love it, but I can’t help wondering about the young people who move here / stay here. There’s definitely a ceiling on how far you can go in a career (and it’s the south, so there’s a lot of the ‘old boy network’ controlling most professions). And what about relationship prospects? The pool is a lot smaller. I run into the same people over and over and over again; that would not have appealed to younger me!
I am for certain though that in 20 years, the S&P 600 (small cap index) and emerging markets will out perform Chicago real estate down payment money.
Probably true. I don’t know, though, thinking of homeownership as an “investment” has kinda f’ed up the market (possibly more than any monetary policy, but there’s a chicken/egg issue there). It’s a fairly recent development to think of a home as more than a place to live and a bit of a forced savings plan.
“Have they, though? Big cities, I think, are always going to appeal to a certain segment of the population.”
The cities are basically shut down now, and the bars, the nightlife, the theater, the food scene, has disappeared too, and will likely remain shutdown in some larger cities for least another year or possibly more. That disrupts the pipeline of grads to jobs in the big cities, as the grads are looking elsewhere for work. Will, in two years, Big 10 grads start looking at Chicago again, if all of their friends and fellow grads are instead moving to Denver, or Miami, or Houston? Maybe, maybe not.
“I run into the same people over and over and over again; that would not have appealed to younger me!
Young adults these days are meeting people on apps. There’s also a significant incel population. Living in a smaller town is actually a good thing for relationships because it breeds familarity and smaller town couples marry younger and have more children than their big city counterparts.
“I have not seen him in ages.”
Blog appears active, and no indication of having moved.
That disrupts the pipeline of grads to jobs in the big cities, as the grads are looking elsewhere for work. Will, in two years, Big 10 grads start looking at Chicago again, if all of their friends and fellow grads are instead moving to Denver, or Miami, or Houston?
Denver, Miami, and Houston are not cities?
Young adults these days are meeting people on apps
Same issue in cyberspace as in meatspace; you’re going to see the same people over and over again on the apps.
Living in a smaller town is actually a good thing for relationships because it breeds familarity and smaller town couples marry younger and have more children than their big city counterparts.
The younger you marry, the more likely you are to divorce.
“Denver, Miami, and Houston are not cities?”
Yes, the fourth largest city in the US is *not* a “big city”, but much smaller places are.
That, or only 3 places in the US are “big cities”.
“Blog appears active, and no indication of having moved.”
yeah, that is right the mysteries blog, forgot all about that. Going to go check it out now.
“That, or only 3 places in the US are “big cities”.”
As I described above, the ‘cities’ right now experiencing the most pain are SF, Chicago, NY, and to some degree LA, Portland, etc. Will the grads to jobs pipeline for these cities be affected in the future? I don’t know, that’s the $64,000 question. It seems to have already happened in SF which people are abandoning in droves. NY is teetering right now, as is Chicago, with the uptick in crime and W@H trend. Chicago/NYC/SF have low desirability for grads right now. Not zero, but certainly negative right now.
“yeah, that is right the mysteries blog, forgot all about that. Going to go check it out now”
Well just skimmed through it, and funny and so apropos it looks like he was planning to move out of the city to down south.
I am not convinced the traditional Tier 1 big cities are going to return to their glory days NYC, SF, LA, Chicago, Boston. What I see happening is smaller cities that were once viewed as 2nd tier are now starting to get some interest as major companies are opening outposts and remote work is becoming more accepted.
Chicago has a lot going for it, but I think the political mismanagement is really holding the city back substantially. I really do think Chicago is the most livable / accessible major city in the country.
“Chicago has a lot going for it, but I think the political mismanagement is really holding the city back substantially.”
Rent control is coming for Chicago and maybe some nearby burbs i.e. Evanston, Oak Park or just all of Cook County in the next 5 – 10 years. “Lift the Ban” made it out of committee this week.
Political mismanagement is here to stay.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/government/panel-votes-lift-states-longtime-rent-control-ban
“I thought I’d seen that the Chicago area itself isn’t losing much, if any, population and that it was downstate that was depopulating”
On net yes downstate is the driver of the states population loss and from City of Chicago or Cook County perspective population is effectively flat BUT that hides the nuances of population changes within the City/County.
To no ones surprise though the north and northwest side is growing and the south and west sides are shrinking (unless you live along Lake Michigan on the South Side) and the south burbs just outside of city limits are shrinking.
The surprising part however is the amount of growth or decline we aren’t talking 1% or 2% positive or negative more of 5% – 10% which are big changes.
There’s a map link embedded below that shows you the state house districts that are growing and shrinking.
“Districts on the rise: Rep. Kam Buckner’s 26th District, which includes the Gold Coast and the Lakeshore East development — new since the 2010 census — has seen a 6 percent population increase. Rep. Ann Williams’ Lincoln Park-area district swelled by 10 percent. And the Andersonville neighborhood represented by House Majority Leader Greg Harris saw a population increase of 6 percent.”
“Districts showing declines: Democratic Reps. Maurice West’s 67th District in Rockford, Bob Rita’s 28th District on the far South Side, and Jay Hoffman’s 113th District in the Metro East area, all lost about 5 percent in population.”
“Congressional comparisons: The legislative population shifts mirror what’s happening in congressional seats, too, Calabrese says. Rep. Mike Quigley and Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who represent Chicago’s North Side, saw their districts increase population while Rep. Robin Kelly on the far South Side and Rep. Cheri Bustos, whose district includes Rockford, saw population declines.”
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinoisplaybook
WP, it is crazy. There is absolutely no need for rent control. Chicago isn’t Manhattan.
I don’t get why people feel they are entitled to live in certain areas.
“As I described above, the ‘cities’ right now experiencing the most pain are SF, Chicago, NY, and to some degree LA, Portland, etc.”
Huh????
LA’s downtown has been decimated. St Louis is a disaster right now. New Orleans has been crushed. Don’t even bother to look at what is happening in San Antonio because it’s horrible.
EVERY large city has taken a huge hit.
The “biggest” and ones with the most density the worst (Philly, Chicago, NY, Boston, DC, Houston, LA).
It’s going to take time to come back.
All the bears here have been bearish for over a decade. In that time, Chicago has built 2 of the tallest residential buildings in the world, started construction on three new mega developments and saw the ascension of one of the hottest neighborhoods in the entire country in Fulton Market.
You will be wrong about Chicago, and all of the other major cities, over the next decade as well.
All the old people on this blog espousing what “grads” want, clearly don’t know any young Millennials or old GenZs. Do you think they’re moving to Tulsa after graduating from University of Wisconsin?
Silly to even discuss this.
“The cities are basically shut down now,”
You have not been to one homedelete. There are 40 people waiting outside every day to get into the Lou Malnati’s. That is NOT “shut down.”
And it’s only March.
Lots of people have come to Chicago for spring break. It’s amazing.
By the way, the museums are open again (need reservations, I believe) and the river boat tours are operating again.
Wrigley home opener, with fans, later this week.
You need to get out HD. Nothing is “shut down.” Even the movie theaters are all open again.
“Living in a smaller town is actually a good thing for relationships because it breeds familarity and smaller town couples marry younger and have more children than their big city counterparts.”
They actually have that dating app for those who work on farms because it’s so difficult in those small towns.
Average age for marriage is 28 for women and 30+ for men now. There is no indication that this has changed or will be changing in the future. Millennials are marrying much later.
“Most who leave Illinois are moving to the surrounding states.”
“I am not seeing that this time. Colorado seems to be a top one.”
Groove, the Tribune posted a whole series of articles, with data, that showed that the vast majority of the people leaving the state move to Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa and Michigan, about 2 years ago. We chattered about it here on the blog.
It’s just not true that most are fleeing to places like Florida. Or Colorado. Although plenty of retirees have always been moving to the sunbelt. Since the 1980s.
“All of us can probably rattle off the names of dozens of people we used to know in Chicago but moved elsewhere.”
Chicago’s a tough job market. Have to be at the top to compete. A lot of people come here after college and find they cannot compete at the upper level.
That’s no different than what you see in LA, SF, DC, NY and Boston.
I’ve lived in several of those cities. I got tired of the grind.
“As far as the people who buy and sell most of the types of places discussed on this blog go, anecdotally speaking, I don’t know if that’s entirely accurate.”
The Tribune has studied the data anonny. There are always people “leaving” for other states. But when you look at the actual data, the vast majority are going to nearby states.
There simply isn’t enough people in your “80 or so” first year big firm class in Chicago to counter all the people who decide to move to Indiana to save money on taxes.
The people highlighted in the series were NOT big firm lawyers. They had middle class jobs. Some were still doing the commute to downtown Chicago via the trains.
Chicago’s a tough job market. Have to be at the top to compete
LOFL
Yep. Ask anonny how “hard” or “easy” it was to get that Biglaw job in Chicago?
You have to be at the top of the game. Which is why we have 2 of the best law schools and business schools in the country which feeds into the job market in Chicago.
It’s tough out there. You’re not getting that Google engineering job, and holding it, without having to compete at the top level.
All the talent is in the top cities. Many don’t make it and end up moving to second tier cities where it’s a bit easier.
“All the talent is in the top cities. Many don’t make it and end up moving to second tier cities where it’s a bit easier.”
This is true. While many might otherwise stay in Chicago, and possibly even live a ‘second tier’ lifestyle, most choose to leave IL because the city and state are so poorly governed. This is a fact born out by the statistics.
“You need to get out HD. Nothing is “shut down.” Even the movie theaters are all open again.”
As recently as a few weeks ago, stuff was ‘shut down’. Now that it’s reopened, it’s on life support. Movie theaters are open, but empty. Restaurants (the ones that follow the rules) are at what, half capacity? And that could quite literally at any moment change if Arwady or Ezike decide to whisper in their boss’ ear sweet nothings of “shut ’em down”. JB loves that sweet talk, it gets him going. And now lightfoot allows 20% capacity at Wrigley field? hahahahah!
“Chicago’s a tough job market. Have to be at the top to compete”
This is true. I rarely run any professional with a bachelor’s degree less than a Big 10 or a small, expensive, selective college. State school grads are persona non-grata in the Chicago market. ISU? Go be a teacher in Kendall County. Eastern, Western, UIC? Go work in accounts receivable for some conglomerate in the far western suburbs. Community college? Your resume gets tossed in the garbage. Even for the grads of the prestigious colleges, there’s still much competition there too. Sure, lesser degree can sometimes lead to a prestigious or powerful job – usually in a political manner – but to have any real corporate or professional success in Chicago, nearly all of them have 1st tier college degrees. So showing up in Chicago with some degree from some no name lower tier state out of state school means you’ll be a barrista at Starbucks or a server. Those are good and useful jobs, I am not knocking anyone’s work, but for most people, absent some exceptions, it’s the wrong credentials to ‘make’ it in Chicago. So much easier to leave and return to KC, or Milwaukee, or Indy, St. Louis, Denver, etc and be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.
““All the talent is in the top cities. Many don’t make it and end up moving to second tier cities where it’s a bit easier.”
My gut feeling is that the top tier cities will be changing. NYC, LA, Chicago, SF might suddenly find themselves falling down the list for new grads and be on par with Miami, Denver, Houston, Dallas, Nashville, etc. The jobs will follow the grads, just as they moved from the Chicago suburbs to downtown chasing the millennials, my instincts tell me that Chicago business will be expanding not in Chicago, but in smaller cities instead. Maybe I’m wrong, I can’t say for certain, there is so much in flux right now, but the trend does not look promising.
“The jobs will follow the grads, just as they moved from the Chicago suburbs to downtown chasing the millennials, my instincts tell me that Chicago business will be expanding not in Chicago, but in smaller cities instead.”
The actual leasing trends don’t show this to be the case. Businesses will go where the talent is. The talent is still in Chicago.
Foxtrot Market is an example.
It could say, “Chicago sucks. Let’s go somewhere else” and move to Detroit. It can have its headquarters anywhere even though started in Chicago. Right?
From Crain’s last week:
“Fresh off raising $42 million in its latest funding round, retailer Foxtrot Market is in advanced talks to lease nearly 30,000 square feet at 167 N. Green St. for a new main office in the former meatpacking district, according to sources familiar with the discussions. No deal has been finalized, but Foxtrot also would open a retail space in the building as part of the move, sources said.”
But no. Chicago is HUGE in the food industry. Why would it leave to go somewhere else?
It won’t.
But you can bet it’s going to get a deal on that lease. ha.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-real-estate/foxtrot-market-eyes-fulton-market-new-hq
“It’s tough out there. You’re not getting that Google engineering job, and holding it, without having to compete at the top level.”
It’s tough but it looks like you’re being selective in your data points as so many people are. No Google doesn’t hire tons of new grads in droves from second tier schools, but they do still hire experienced hires.
I know a guy who just got hired on in finance. He’s a Kellogg MBA at night (and now no longer needs to finish or at least attend virtually) so has that credential, but it was a long courting process. And while I’m hesitant to say they wanted a certain type of person and had that person in mind for his role, they hired him immediately after he got married (he’s American so visa wasn’t the issue).
Companies do hire and success is performance based. You can make it in Chicago with a “second tier” degree, you just need to be able to cut your teeth more.
Most of the 1%ers I know come from no-name schools. They know the secret to success isn’t bullshit you learn in academia but pounding pavement and cutting teeth. Talking to people and customers. If you aren’t front facing you’re just the drone academia churned out who wants to warm the cube.
How many younger people are adverse to talking to other human beings on the phone these days? Those are your drones. The successful ones aren’t bashful for picking up the god damn telephone and talking to people on the other end.
And I doubt they are teaching that these days in university.
“There simply isn’t enough people in your “80 or so” first year big firm class in Chicago to counter all the people who decide to move to Indiana to save money on taxes.”
And not one of those people were going to buy any of the $500+ psf condos, or $1.2m+ SFHs typically featured here, which was Nonny’s point.
Odd even after all these years of CC, folks here seem to think Google and Big Law are the only top paying jobs in Chicago.
The fact someone thinks “its tough, you need to be top to compete”, must be be in a very niche career market. So many ‘no-name’ companies here in chicago that pay so well and wont have you putting in a 70 hour week.
Yes coming right out of school, you are not landing that high paying job unless you are top of the top. But even a bottom tier school with a c average kid, if they put in 3 *quality years anywhere here will land a great paying job easily.
“But no. Chicago is HUGE in the food industry. Why would it leave to go somewhere else?”
Foxtrot Market isnt a Food company, and I wouldn’t say that Chicago is “Huge”, big yes but huge, no
“Yep. Ask anonny how “hard” or “easy” it was to get that Biglaw job in Chicago?”
Thats a factor of Big Law, not Chicago
“I don’t get why people feel they are entitled to live in certain areas.”
I think it’s complicated in a city like Chicago. Some reasons I get some I don’t. The people I get are people who lived in a neighborhood for a generation or more and were part of the neighborhoods “turnaround” who now have better schools and less crime only to be pushed out through higher property taxes. That’s a tough one.
The people I don’t are the ones who complain about bad schools, crime, and disinvestment but when developers, zoning changes, and investment is proposed they get pissed saying it’s not the “right kind of investment”.
Some of the attitude also stems from redlining. It was only one generation ago where people couldn’t live in certain areas and now some of those same people feel like they are being pushed out of the only areas they were allowed to live in. That’s a very complicated subject that touches on the two points above.
Wrapped up in all of these as well is the pace of change that has occurred in certain neighborhoods since post-08.
“Yep. Ask anonny how “hard” or “easy” it was to get that Biglaw job in Chicago?”
“It’s tough out there. You’re not getting that Google engineering job, and holding it, without having to compete at the top level.”
This is 1% elitist type thinking. It’s like living in NY and defining success as being an MD at Goldman, JP Morgan, or a bulge-bracket PE Firm, or Partner at a law firm.
You better go to UofC or Northwestern rack up 100K+ in student loan debt or have a rich and connected mommy/daddy to pay for it or you can’t be successful.
Maybe take a step outside of your own bubble for once.
COVID is a hoax. How can everyone believe it? Symptoms are more benign than the normal flu, and nobody famous has died from it. Other than Herman Cain. The statistics are all being manipulated and are not believable or trustworthy.
It’s all political and part of a scheme: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/28/vaccine-passports-for-work/
The vaccine passport. The mainstream media has finally decided to admit the obvious: the coronavirus vaccines are going to be linked to an electronic database that is linked to a QR code based “vaccine passport” that you will need to participate in society or travel.
“Helmethofer (permabear)”
huh? I’ve made money on all my RE purchases and investments. There will ALWAYS be inflation which will drive prices up. Thing is, that Chicago’s appreciation has not done well relatively. Chicago used to be much higher than Houston and Seattle and Denver in price per sf, today they are the same. Chicago has not kept up its first-tier status like NY, LA, Miami, etc. That’s reality and mathematics, not bearishness. Places like Naples, FL have quadrupled during the same period of time that Chicago only doubled. Hell, pretty soon we’re going to be passed up by Tampa/St. Pete in price per sf. There are already some mansions there trading for $7+ million like Jeter’s. Nobody paying that here.
Re: Chicago and colleges and recent grads. I will agree with Sabrina that kids from New Trier and Hinsdale Central etc. are not being accepted into top tier universities at the rates that everyone thinks. This is due to the only REAL racism that exists in the 21st century: anti-white racism. The admissions folks are so hate-filled that it’s become a joke. Elite schools like Dalton School in NYC are completely compromised with extreme liberalism and anti-white curricula.
So, people are starting to laugh at the Ivy League now, woke, and unattractive. People know now. A New Trier graduate who went to IU or Miami of Ohio is far more attractive a candidate than a racist non-white who got into corrupted Ivy-elite-Northwestern schools via affirmative action for people who haven’t paid their dues in life and hate society and America. Who wants that negativity in their organization?
“I think it’s complicated in a city like Chicago. Some reasons I get some I don’t. The people I get are people who lived in a neighborhood for a generation or more and were part of the neighborhoods “turnaround” who now have better schools and less crime only to be pushed out through higher property taxes. That’s a tough one.”
————————————————-
The problem with rent control is the economic ignorance behind it. Case in point, Lightfoot on the new revisions to the Affordable Requirements Ordinance: “Thanks to this ordinance, we will . . . move our city that much closer to fully ensuring that all of our residents, regardless of their income, will have the ability and opportunity to live wherever they choose in Chicago.”
So the stated goal of the City of Chicago is that anybody, regardless of income, can live in the Gold Coast on the City’s dime, according to the mayor. That’s lunacy.
Then there’s the small matter that nobody rents in a poor, rough, neighborhood waiting for it to improve. They may be part of the community, but they rented there because that’s what they could afford. As for the homeowners, rent control and anti-gentrification measures destroy value. So the homeowner who lived in the neighborhood because it was what he could afford, and stayed because he saw the potential of the place now has his retirement pile taken away, and a chunk of his income to boot if he’s a landlord. Do we say that’s “tough” and “complicated” too? How about calling it what it is, namely, wrong?
Arguments for rent control come down to one thing; that there is a moral superiority to having lived in an area for a long time. I can accept that only if private persons don’t have to pay for that superiority.
“The people I get are people who lived in a neighborhood for a generation or more and were part of the neighborhoods “turnaround” who now have better schools and less crime only to be pushed out through higher property taxes.”
You talking about owners, or renters? From what I have seen/heard (yeah, not the whole story) most of the issue comes from the renters who somehow think they deserve a life estate.
“You talking about owners, or renters?”
It’s not an either or so much as people who have lived in the area for 20+ years. However, owners typically live in the same place for 20+ years compared to renters.
“most of the issue comes from the renters who somehow think they deserve a life estate.”
It’s not this simple. There is certainty a portion that think this way but it is mainly a race, wealth, history, and political issue. The biggest battles are in Logan Square and Pilsen. Whenever an article is written it’s sometimes framed as renters or homeowners being pushed out but underneath it’s always about wealth, race, politics and history. It’s framed in a way to maximize interest and thus touches on all of these.
Take NPR’s recent story on Logan Square. The headline gives it away. But then you read the article and it says “By 1970, Logan Square was 97% white”,…. “By 1980, Logan Square was nearly 52% Latino and 43% white, according to Paral’s data. The white share of the neighborhood’s population continued to slide, reaching a low of 26% in 2000.”
So the author is defining “long-time” in the article based on the most recent 40 ish years even though Chicago was founded in 1833 and Logan Square had these massive changes just like any neighborhood over the past 100+ years.
The framing in the article of why it’s a Latino neighborhood isn’t just it’s been majority Latino for the past couple decades but because of how and why it became majority Latino i.e. white people abandoned the neighborhood in the “white flight” era and are now returning with their wealth “conquering” it because they can. However, the article never mentions who is selling to developers.
“Now, Diaz added, “many building owners are wanting to cash in on gentrification. They’re waiting for that big developer to come and make them an offer for their building, or they’re raising their rents expecting that Panera or Target or one of these national chains will come and rent their storefront.” This has resulted in many empty storefronts in the community, he said.”
Wouldn’t one surmise that the majority population from 1980 – 2019 are the ones making alot of money? Yet these articles are never written unless it’s in the context of “displacement” or being forced to sell due to higher property taxes and gentrification.
The political angle is you look at the alders who represent these areas. If the majority becomes white again will they continue to vote for the incumbent Latino alder? Given Chicago is 30% Latino, how does this affect political representation in city council which then has an effect on all neighborhoods.
They touch on the “working class” vs. “wealthy class” mantra:
“We saw it happen in Lincoln Park, we saw it happen in Wicker Park,” he said. “At the root of this is a dominant narrative in Chicago, that the only way to improve a neighborhood is to make it attractive to white people, or to wealthy people.”
“This information isn’t surprising to anyone who lives in Logan Square,” said Christian Diaz, housing director for the Logan Square Neighborhood Association (LSNA). “Really, for us, we want to ask why: Why is our neighborhood trending in a way where we’re heading towards becoming a segregated community?”
Now it’s trending to a “segregated community” because for the 3rd time in 50+ years the majority population has changed – from white to Latino back to white? That doesn’t sound like a segregated community.
Alot of the noise is emotional. Some of it makes sense some of it doesn’t. But you can extrapolate this article about one neighborhood in Chicago to everything being talked about at the city, state, and national level. Race, Class, jobs, “equity” or “equality” whichever the preferred term is, etc., etc. etc. Anything housing in Chicago is always talked through these lenses as well. Fair or foul that’s the argument.
https://www.wbez.org/stories/longtime-latino-stronghold-logan-square-is-now-majority-white-new-data-shows/80f2b464-6ff9-49e6-90f5-48bd517248c2
Wow, a few of you cribchatter commenters really need a long warm hug from someone/anyone.
“So the stated goal of the City of Chicago is that anybody, regardless of income, can live in the Gold Coast on the City’s dime, according to the mayor. That’s lunacy.”
The city doesn’t pay for the ARO it’s the developers pay for it through units being set aside for certain incomes or paying a fee/tax to the city to build low-income units which is ultimately passed down to the non-subsidized renters as amenities need to be nicer in the new building to justify even higher rents and make the ROI their investors need.
And if you step back it’s not “regardless of income” If you don’t meet the ARO income requirements but can’t afford $2K a month in rent to live in the building you go to Humboldt Park, West Town, Hermosa, Bronzeville, or Logan Square (10 years ago) and then get to here the politicos complain about gentrification in these neighborhoods.
Their efforts will ultimately fail as it’s always framed as politicos wanting the poorest of the poor living amongst the wealthiest of the wealthiest. Yet this probably encapsulates 20% – 30% of the city which thereby has negative effects on the city at large and the remaining 70% – 80%.
If a family of four making $40K – $60K a year can’t afford the rent in XYZ neighborhood cause it costs $2K+ a month doggone it we will mandate that family of four be able to afford it by ensuring the rest in the building no longer pay $2K+ a month but $2300+ or $2500+ a month.
“Arguments for rent control come down to one thing; that there is a moral superiority to having lived in an area for a long time. I can accept that only if private persons don’t have to pay for that superiority.”
There’s political superiority. Who is most likely to vote and have a stake in the neighborhood. The single person in their 20’s who will move in 2 or 3 years or the homeowner or family that’s renting and staying in the neighborhood for 10+ years. You are the incumbent politician who do you think is voting and who are you going to listen to?
“Whenever an article is written it’s sometimes framed as renters or homeowners being pushed out but underneath it’s always about wealth, race, politics and history. It’s framed in a way to maximize interest and thus touches on all of these. ”
I know the word “framing” is all the rage these days in the world of journalism, but that only distracts from the reality that NPR is fake news. Their job is to create narratives. NPR tells fictional stories based on a foundation of cherry-picked facts, sometimes real, sometimes made up. No NPR listener wants to hear the story of the long time Latinks Logan Sq homeowner who cash out refinanced his mortgage four times over. But the listeners do donate money when they hear a narrative about how gentrification is really just white colonializing.
“Maybe take a step outside of your own bubble for once.”
But that very bubble is what drives people to Chicago. Grads aren’t moving to Chicago with the expectation to get some mid-level job and move to Naperville within a couple of years. I have a buddy who lives in Chicago and won’t move to the suburbs where the housing is cheaper and the schools are better. He has no family other than his spouse here. He says if he were to move to the suburbs, he’d sooner return to Michigan instead.
And for many, many graduates, when that time comes in their late 20’s or early 30’s, they move to a suburb in a different state instead. By 30 year old, if one don’t have roots here, the chances that they’ll stay in Chicago or Illinois are slim. At least that’s been my experience. This isn’t the California or Florida of previous generations, until at least recently, where you move there and never leave.
“And if you step back it’s not “regardless of income” If you don’t meet the ARO income requirements but can’t afford $2K a month in rent to live in the building you go to Humboldt Park, West Town, Hermosa, Bronzeville, or Logan Square (10 years ago) and then get to here the politicos complain about gentrification in these neighborhoods. ”
————————–
I quoted Lori. She said “regardless of income.” I want the Gold Coast and I want it now.
“COVID is a hoax. How can everyone believe it? Symptoms are more benign than the normal flu, and nobody famous has died from it.”
Famous people die from it all the time. I’ve been pointing them out to you. Do I need to go dig up the names again?
And so you believe that like 100 countries are in on this hoax? And the Brazilian president who is a Covid denier is making up all those deaths? How do you explain the 15% above normal deaths last year and 1 year shaved off of the US life expectancy?
Wow, a few of you cribchatter commenters really need a long warm hug from someone/anyone.
A few of the chatterati need to get a substack and start selling subscriptions
“He says if he were to move to the suburbs, he’d sooner return to Michigan instead.”
Well, yeah. What do you get in Naperville that you don’t get in, say, Troy? And the houses are $200 psf, rather than $300 psf, and the property tax is more like 1% instead of 2%.
We hear all the time about how the city and the burbs are the same if you have kids, which has some truth to it.
But it is far more true that the burbs of Chicago are the same as the burbs of Indy, MKE, Detroit, MSP, DC, Boston, Dallas, Houston, PHX, etc., etc.
“How do you explain the 15% above normal deaths last year and 1 year shaved off of the US life expectancy?”
Floyd protests, duh!
Also: many people are deathly allergic to 5G. And common sense.
“get a substack”
I thought Substack had been canceled. No?
“I quoted Lori. She said “regardless of income.” I want the Gold Coast and I want it now.”
Yet there is an income cap on the current ARO and the updated ARO that is being pushed. So when she says “regardless of income” she is talking to and about the people at and below the proposed cap.
Further, she is pushing a bill like this to protect her left flank come 2023. She doesn’t have to worry about the right flank i.e. Rahm Emanuel types.
“So when she says “regardless of income” she is talking to and about the people at and below the proposed cap. ”
———————–
She didn’t use any qualifiers, and my interpretation is in keeping with the rest of her economically illiterate positions. Yours isn’t.
Gold Coast, here I come!
“And so you believe that like 100 countries are in on this hoax? And the Brazilian president who is a Covid denier is making up all those deaths? How do you explain the 15% above normal deaths last year and 1 year shaved off of the US life expectancy?”
4,000 deaths a day in Brazil with some days spiking to 5,000. No end in sight. They aren’t vaccinating quickly enough and they have multiple variants now, all spreading it faster. Those poor, poor healthcare workers. They don’t deserve this disaster.
US is going to have a fourth outbreak due to the variants. It’s already here, actually. But we will hopefully avoid a high death rate due to the speed we’re getting the vaccine out.
But that spring break is going to be a mass spreading event. At some suburban high schools, nearly everyone went to Florida in the last week. Yikes.
And yeah, whenever you bring up with the covid deniers and conspiracy theorists that it seems odd that hundreds of countries are in on this and willing to wreck their economies for some strange reason, when Asia is not, they are silent. That tidbit doesn’t fit into the “theory” Gary so they just ignore it.
“And for many, many graduates, when that time comes in their late 20’s or early 30’s, they move to a suburb in a different state instead. By 30 year old, if one don’t have roots here, the chances that they’ll stay in Chicago or Illinois are slim.”
You are going off your own experiences from like 30 years ago HD. Millennials aren’t even married by 30 anymore. They are living in luxury apartments well into their 30s. They aren’t having kids. Super low birth rates as well.
Your decisions won’t be their decisions.
They also weren’t “sold” on the belief that housing is the way to riches and the American dream like Boomers and GenX were. They weren’t even adults when housing was booming. Some might have memories of the bust, especially if their family lost their own house during it.
You think they want to repeat that pattern?
No.
This is why home buying has been so depressed. More Millennials have rented…until now. Suddenly, the pandemic has changed some calculations. And the record low mortgage rates have made buying cheaper than renting (either a home or a condo) so they have taken the leap.
And the largest group of them are finally reaching their late 20s and they WILL finally marry then. In big numbers. Most would have just kept renting, but, again, the pandemic has changed the equation. Many want outdoor space and a home office.
If they are never going to return to their city offices, they’re going to need space to work PERMANENTLY at home.
Big changes. Lots of people moving around.
This is why I believe the new high rises that get built will all now have “offices” in their layouts. Forget the rock climbing walls or free cleaning service. A separate space with a window will be built into the layouts going forward.
“The vaccine passport. The mainstream media has finally decided to admit the obvious: the coronavirus vaccines are going to be linked to an electronic database that is linked to a QR code based “vaccine passport” that you will need to participate in society or travel.”
What do you think an actual passport IS Helmethofer? It already IS linked to a database.
Duh.
It’s no different than a country requiring you to have the malaria shot to enter the country.
But, again, HH hasn’t probably EVER left the United States of America and doesn’t have a passport so he has NO clue.
“Maybe take a step outside of your own bubble for once.”
We mostly chatter about GreenZone housing on this blog.
You had better compete at the upper echelon of Chicago’s society to buy that $4 million house. It’s tough out there. Not everyone gets to be in the 1%, which is what you have to be to get that $4 million property.
Many can’t make it. And they leave.
“Foxtrot Market isnt a Food company, and I wouldn’t say that Chicago is “Huge”, big yes but huge, no”
Come on JohnnyU. Tsk, tsk.
Hate, hate, hate, hate, hate. Bear, bear, bear, bear. Doom, doom, doom.
Chicago is, of course, probably the largest “food” city in the country. From Tootsie Roll, to Kraft, from Treehouse Foods, to Ingredion and on and on and on.
If you want to work in food, you come to Chicago.
But you’re right. FoxTrot is retail. Chicago is a huge retail hub as well.
But why don’t they just leave? Open up somewhere cheaper like Milwaukee or Grand Rapids?
Gosh. Maybe it’s because all the talent is IN Chicago.
“But why don’t they just leave? Open up somewhere cheaper like Milwaukee or Grand Rapids?
Gosh. Maybe it’s because all the talent is IN Chicago. ”
Chicago isn’t the Golden Triangle of Central America, where 1/3rd of El Salvador has migrated to the United States, and the remaining two-thirds is already in a caravan walking north as we speak, headed towards the border.
Chicago obviously has talent, it’s a big city. The $64,000 is: will it continue to retain its desirability going forward? Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, Buffalo, etc, and even Milwaukee, used to be classy cities with world class industries, and now they are shells of their former selves.
Will Chicago remain desirable? Let’s check back in a decade because change happens quickly.
The conversation we’re having is about
“You are going off your own experiences from like 30 years ago HD. Millennials aren’t even married by 30 anymore. They are living in luxury apartments well into their 30s. They aren’t having kids. Super low birth rates as well. ”
My experiences ’30’ years ago (more like 50 years ago now!) still aren’t that far off from today. In fact, the people in their late 30’s, with no real estate, no spouse, no kids, no family, and only so-so jobs ARE the most likely to leave. And there’s a lot those people, not just in Chicago, but in many big cities. Rent is dropping significantly as they flee. In fact, that’s happening not just in Chicago, (Chicago rent drops 12% per 1/21 Trib article) but around the country, with transient renters with no roots are fleeting large cities like SF, NY and LA. In fact, according to Zumper National Rent Report for March 2021, the median 1-bedroom price in SF decreased by 24.3% since last year! Who is renting a 1 bedroom in SF? a 20 to 30 something single person with no roots in SF! Sure, some are fleeing to the suburbs of big cities, but many are just leaving the entire state all together, moving on to a different locale for a better life, having given up their hopes and dreams of ‘making’ it in Chicago, when everything is closed, and there is not much of a future here anymore. Sad really.
“Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, Buffalo, etc, and even Milwaukee, used to be classy cities with world class industries, and now they are shells of their former selves.”
We have never remained one industry, as some of those listed above.
But yes, a city cannot rest on its laurels. But there are simply too many jobs in too many different industries, with one of the world’s largest airports nearby, for the jobs not to be located here.
Also, in climate change, Chicago has all the aces. It won’t have nearly the coastal flooding issues, or be underwater, and it won’t have the extreme heat that will plague the south.
HD: if there isn’t going to be a great city here in a decade, why are the banks loaning billions of dollars to build up Lincoln Yards, the 78, a possible new development in the South Loop along the railroad there?
The economy is going to be booming over the next several years. Chicago needs MORE housing, not less. But it probably needs less apartments and more single family homes and townhouses.
I would be much more concerned about the future if I was still living in San Francisco. It has no entry level housing whatsoever and no desire to build any.
That’s a city where a lot of young people don’t want to move to now. But for how long?
Same with NY. There are already articles about those moving to NYC because of the deals on apartments. Ha.
But some might say that the pandemic was the best thing to happen to some cities as it could create wholesale change, including in traffic patterns, bike paths, outdoor spaces for restaurants and public spaces.
But we’ll see.
“You had better compete at the upper echelon of Chicago’s society to buy that $4 million house. It’s tough out there. Not everyone gets to be in the 1%, which is what you have to be to get that $4 million property.
Many can’t make it. And they leave.”
So you’re saying the top 1% in Chicago makes >$1MM? Source?
You’re talking something like the top 0.1%
Chicago is, of course, probably the largest “food” city in the country. From Tootsie Roll, to Kraft, from Treehouse Foods, to Ingredion and on and on and on.
If you want to work in food, you come to Chicago.
But you’re right. FoxTrot is retail. Chicago is a huge retail hub as well.
But why don’t they just leave? Open up somewhere cheaper like Milwaukee or Grand Rapids?
Gosh. Maybe it’s because all the talent is IN Chicago.
Tootsie Roll? Really
MSP has a much larger footprint. Cargill,, General Mills, Land o Lakes, CHS.
As per usual, you don’t know wtf you are talking about.
“ HD: if there isn’t going to be a great city here in a decade, why are the banks loaning billions of dollars to build up Lincoln Yards, the 78, a possible new development in the South Loop along the railroad there?”
JPow and the miracle printing press that goes Brrrr…Brrrr…Brrrr
HD: if there isn’t going to be a great city here in a decade, why are the banks loaning billions of dollars to build up Lincoln Yards, the 78, a possible new development in the South Loop along the railroad there?
———————————-
Between pensions, anti-gentrification, and now rent control, it all goes up in smoke.
So, this story is BS?
https://www.chicagotribune.com/real-estate/ct-re-millennial-homebuying-trend-report-0317-20210326-lanzqfcelrhllblqk75nxlxnem-story.html
“71% of millennials would be willing to buy a fixer-upper, and nearly 80% could be persuaded to buy a home sight unseen.”
“So you’re saying the top 1% in Chicago makes >$1MM? Source?
You’re talking something like the top 0.1%”
Nowhere close to top 0.1%, but way less than 1%. For the metro, threshold for 1% is ~$650k (see, eg: https://dqydj.com/income-by-city/)
The average HHI for those in the 1% is well over $1m, which people conf-/mis-use all the time.
” why are the banks loaning billions of dollars to build up Lincoln Yards, the 78, a possible new development in the South Loop along the railroad there?”
Developers receiving billions in TIF dollars makes the underwriting process slightly easier. Also, I imagine Sterling Bay has good reserves on hand and a significant liquidity line.
Let’s also think of who ultimately takes the risk. The Banks provide construction financing, the city provides billions in TIF dollars, the project is complete and the Banks get repaid through a refi in the CMBS market that they don’t hold on their books but receive u/w fees i.e. their only risk is construction not being completed mitigated by the developers track record, its balance sheet through reserves on hand and excess liquidity lines, and the value of the land taken as collateral. Sounds like bread and butter low-risk u/w to me.
“when Asia is not, they are silent”
The COVID scamdemic is part of a Great Reset program targeted at the Western world in particular. Africa and Asia are non-white so not targeted under this attack. UK has the most ridiculous lockdowns and policies, as it is the case study nation for what the NWO crowd that meets at davos sees what it can get away with.
We are not stepping over dead bodies in the streets, COVID is no more deadly than any other flu, and climate change controls and tyranny will be coming next since the Sabrinas/Karens of the world are happy to have economies wrecked to live in a nanny state. None of the dystopia that is being foisted on America would be possible without the great mistake of Suffrage. Look at all the GZ women who voted for Joe Biden, an obviously senile individual for the shallow reason of “tone” of DJT. Chicago would not be in the hell it’s in.
I thought Substack had been canceled. No?
Substack is raising $65 million amid newsletter boom: https://www.axios.com/substack-andreessen-horowitz-newsletter-36cb98ea-a7b3-43b1-883a-fa45586eaad4.html
It’s almost as if the panic over “cancel culture” is bullshit!
“What do you think an actual passport IS Helmethofer? It already IS linked to a database.
Duh.
It’s no different than a country requiring you to have the malaria shot to enter the country.”
You are seriously comparing a passport issued by the State Department which is the federal version of a State ID to showing your health records to the Government or private company?
We live in the US the constitution, laws, regulations, and thus judicial precedents are much different than other countries when it comes to anything healthcare related.
Also, it’s been 20 years and the US Government still hasn’t fully rolled out and required Real-ID in response to 9/11. It’s been 15+ years since the law passed in 2005. This is with an already existing database, that only involved the US, on something that was already accepted by US citizens.
What treaty is the UN currently rolling out to create the standards for this global vaccine passport between countries?
What law is going through Congress to mandate this? I don’t even think committees have even been formed to look into this.
What bill or budget passed allocating money to build-out said database?
Who governs this database HHS, State Department, Cybersecurity, NSA?
Where’s the State Laws going through all 50 States to update their State ID’s when US citizens are traveling within borders?
Where’s the liability shields for private businesses who may support this but don’t want to be sued or liable if someone has a fake vaccine passport and spreads Covid on their premises? Who’s paying for the private business compliance costs and the bouncers salary at the local restaurant after being decimated financially for the past year?
How long does this take to be adjudicated when Texas, Florida, etc. sue saying vaccine passports within borders are a 10th amendment issue and then pass a bill making them illegal? Not to mention adjudicating 1st, 4th, 8th, 9th, 14th amendment concerns.
Some colleges are currently requiring vaccinations to return to schools – I think only Rutgers so far but they have carve-outs for religion among other things.
We are still litigating ACA 10+ years after passage.
“It’s almost as if the panic over “cancel culture” is bullshit!”
That’s my culture, man! You can’t take away my freedumb to cancel whoever I want to!
“It’s almost as if the panic over “cancel culture” is bullshit!”
$65MM is a pittance w/ writers/journalists like GG/Andrew Sullivan/MattY/Talibi already signed up
Cancel culture is real and its gonna get uglier as Traditional press and Writers that cant draw flies no longer control the narrative and strike back at “New” media 2.0
Nowhere close to top 0.1%, but way less than 1%. For the metro, threshold for 1% is ~$650k (see, eg: https://dqydj.com/income-by-city/)
The average HHI for those in the 1% is well over $1m, which people conf-/mis-use all the time.
The Average gets skewed by folks like Kenny G.
My point and where Sabrina was wrong was hitting the 1% doesnt get you a $4MM home (Unless your a Trustifarian, etc)
“Also, in climate change, Chicago has all the aces. It won’t have nearly the coastal flooding issues, or be underwater, and it won’t have the extreme heat that will plague the south. ”
none of those things will happen in your, or your children’s lifetimes so literally has zero effect on current real estate trends
Anyone that says that this stuff is “accelerating” is completely full of shit and hasn’t bothered to look at any data from the last 3 decades.
Cancel culture is real and its gonna get uglier as Traditional press and Writers that cant draw flies no longer control the narrative and strike back at “New” media 2.0
Who has been cancelled?
Man, EVERYTHING from the ’90s is back: The “political correctness run amok” narrative, Satanic Panic (Little Nas X), and boot cut low rise jeans.
Some colleges are currently requiring vaccinations to return to schools
Most colleges have required proof of measles vaccinations for the last 30-some years.
“COVID is no more deadly than any other flu”
—————————–
A lie by omission is still a lie. Covid is a heck of a lot more infectious than regular flu, so even with the same death rate PER 1,000 INFECTED, Covid’s killing a lot more people.
So where’s your statement on infection rates of Covid v flu?
“Who has been cancelled?”
Depending on how you classify “Cancelled” – Brett Weinstein, JK Rowling (And anyone labeled as a TERF, Glenn Greenwald. The threat of cancelation is enough to thwart open discussuion. Much a gun, shooting one person or brandishing it is enough to ensure compliance
“Man, EVERYTHING from the ’90s is back: The “political correctness run amok” narrative, Satanic Panic (Little Nas X), and boot cut low rise jeans.”
GenX rules!
PMRC/Ozzy Trial & PC were all 80’s
“Most colleges have required proof of measles vaccinations for the last 30-some years.”
after being in use for 30+ years
But sure go ahead and force our children to take a vaccine that is still in the trial phase… for something that isn’t going to kill them (18-29 year olds are 40x-60x more likely to die of something other than covid) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
unbelievably irresponsible reaction to this by our “health” leaders
“Most colleges have required proof of measles vaccinations for the last 30-some years.”
Completely different given the probability of death and how recent this virus came into circulation. Further, measles vaccination was created in the early 60’s
State Laws mandating children in schools have proof of vaccination didn’t occur until the 70’s or 10 – 15 years after the vaccine was created.
Rutgers is a private college which makes it easier to mandate it. Let me know when State Legislatures start passing bills for public schools.
and to put that into perspective
there’s 53,000,000 18-29 year olds and only 1900 have had deaths ‘involving’ covid, or .003%
vaccines should NOT be mandatory for anyone under the age of 70, and well IMO, vaccines shouldn’t be mandatory at all for this virus if they don’t want to take one. Just like the flu shot.
J.K. Rowling is one of the richest women in the world and her books can be bought in any bookstore, on Amazon, etc. Glenn Greenwald quit (of his own volition) the Intercept because they had the audacity to edit one of his pieces (and he is a dude who REALLY needs an editor!)
Weinstein, maybe, but this:
On January 29, 2021 Weinstein appeared on Real Time with Bill Maher along with his wife Heather Heying, an evolutionary biologist, promoting the “Lab Leak” hypothesis around the origins of COVID-19. Weinstein claimed he was “90 percent” certain that there was a greater than 50 percent chance that the hypothesis was true.
makes me think he isn’t the most rigorous academic, and there may have been more behind his firing. (Also, he is appearing on mainstream, well-known tv programs as of this year, so “cancelled” is a stretch, no?)
PMRC/Ozzy Trial & PC were all 80’s
Satanic Panic and PC def started in the ’80s but really hit their stride in the ’90s.
Now, pardon me while I put on some brown lipstick with slightly darker brown lipliner.
“Traditional press and Writers that cant draw flies no longer control the narrative and strike back at “New” media 2.0”
This is where the Traditional Corporate Media goes all in on trying to find “disinformation” or “hateful content” on any of the “new media 2.0” sites i.e. Clubhouse, Podcasts, Substack, Reddit, or any social/media platform and its content creators that doesn’t hire droves of “content moderators”.
The traditional powers are trying to team up with the large tech companies i.e. Amazon, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Apple to deplatform either the entire website or specific content creators.
The large tech companies get positive press from the traditional media powers including and most importantly less regulatory and antitrust scrutiny unless of course your name is Jeff Bezos and you just buy the Washington Post. I’d be interested to see the number of critical articles on WalMart or other competitors business practice compared to critical articles on Amazon since Bezos purchased the paper.
But sure go ahead and force our children to take a vaccine that is still in the trial phase…
College students aren’t children, are they? Vaccine trials for 18+ (16+ for at least one of them) have been completed.
for something that isn’t going to kill them (18-29 year olds are 40x-60x more likely to die of something other than covid)
This is something that has been very frustrating to me throughout the pandemic. The fear isn’t that 18-29 year olds will get COVID and die/be hospitalized, the fear is that 18-29 yr olds will get the ‘rona and give it to someone who WILL die/be hospitalized. Herd immunity requires the whole herd.
“there’s 53,000,000 18-29 year olds and only 1900 have had deaths ‘involving’ covid, or .003%”
More birth – 18 year olds die of the flu each year pre-covid than died of covid over the past year. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the same in the 18 – 29 age range as well.
“Weinstein claimed he was “90 percent” certain that there was a greater than 50 percent chance that the hypothesis was true.
makes me think he isn’t the most rigorous academic, and there may have been more behind his firing.”
No one can definitively tell us how Covid started in the human population. To state someone isn’t the “most rigorous academic” on the sole basis of saying there is a degree of possibility that it originated from a lab-leak when no one has definitively ruled it out is a pretty weak argument. Maybe it’s the least probable compared to the wet-market, eating infected bat soup, or some other theories but again no one can 100% say today that this isn’t how Covid originated.
People dismissing any of the popular theories as the origin are partisan hacks.
“The fear isn’t that 18-29 year olds will get COVID and die/be hospitalized, the fear is that 18-29 yr olds will get the ‘rona and give it to someone who WILL die/be hospitalized.”
We have a vaccine now and the people that most need it are quickly getting it. Further, humans have unknowingly spread viruses to other people accidently who did die or hospitalized for centuries but now we are all supposed to think about this possibility which is quickly becoming remote since we have highly effective vaccines. Why? At this point that type of thinking is fear porn compared to what was going on in fall or last spring.
“J.K. Rowling is one of the richest women in the world and her books can be bought in any bookstore, on Amazon, etc. Glenn Greenwald quit (of his own volition) the Intercept because they had the audacity to edit one of his pieces (and he is a dude who REALLY needs an editor!)
Weinstein, maybe, but this:
On January 29, 2021 Weinstein appeared on Real Time with Bill Maher along with his wife Heather Heying, an evolutionary biologist, promoting the “Lab Leak” hypothesis around the origins of COVID-19. Weinstein claimed he was “90 percent” certain that there was a greater than 50 percent chance that the hypothesis was true.
You must have a great definition of “Canceled”
Did you get all of that from Wikipedia? On the GG – Its worth understanding what was being edited and it wasnt editing for brevity.
JK – Protests and threats
BW – go watch the videos of what happened at Evergreen
These are the folks that actually stood up to the mob
Maybe you’re political persuasion is aligned with the mob, in which case you probably feel its acceptable
No one can definitively tell us how Covid started in the human population. To state someone isn’t the “most rigorous academic” on the sole basis of saying there is a degree of possibility that it originated from a lab-leak
I’m saying that stating you’re “90% certain that there’s more than a 50% chance” is a dumb way to state your hypothesis, is weasel-wordish and sounds like someone who doesn’t want to have to defend their statement and so bakes in plausible deniability.
I personally think COVID-19 probably DID come from a lab leak. (which should not be confused/conflated with an intentional release from a lab)
We have a vaccine now and the people that most need it are quickly getting it. Further, humans have unknowingly spread viruses to other people accidently who did die or hospitalized for centuries but now we are all supposed to think about this possibility which is quickly becoming remote since we have highly effective vaccines.
I have no idea what you are saying here — it sounds like you’re saying people don’t need to get vaccinated because we have vaccines and people are being vaccinated.
Even if every single person over the age of 65 got vaccinated (which they won’t because some people can’t get vaccinated — allergies or health issues, etc.), the vaccine is still only 90ish % effective. If everyone who can get vaccinated gets vaccinated, the percentage of vulnerable over 65 population who CAN’T get vaccinated is ALSO protected, because there is less spread. The more people in the vaxed population, the less vulnerable the unvaxed are.
You must have a great definition of “Canceled”
Well, that’s the problem, isn’t it? What does cancelled actually mean?
“We have a vaccine now and the people that most need it are quickly getting it.”
————————-
Quickly getting it? Bull. Particularly when you do the math and figure that Covid is about ten times more infectious than the flu (do the math — IF Covid is only as deadly as the flu, and the flu kills 40,000 a year, and Covid has killed over 400,000, then Covid’s infection rate must be _____ times as infectious as the flu. Fill in the blank).
What we don’t know yet about Covid is how the “long-haulers” who have had side effects from having covid are going to do long term. I’ve never heard of those from a general flu.
What does cancelled actually mean?
Boycott or suppression of communication of those accused of crimespeak or not towing the preferred orthodoxy
“Quickly getting it? Bull. Particularly when you do the math and figure that Covid is about ten times more infectious than the flu (do the math — IF Covid is only as deadly as the flu, and the flu kills 40,000 a year, and Covid has killed over 400,000, then Covid’s infection rate must be _____ times as infectious as the flu. Fill in the blank).”
Transmission doesnt equal severity
“If everyone who can get vaccinated gets vaccinated, the percentage of vulnerable over 65 population who CAN’T get vaccinated is ALSO protected, because there is less spread. The more people in the vaxed population, the less vulnerable the unvaxed are.”
Covid itself doesn’t scare me. 2% chance of death and I guesstimate a ~3% chance of symptoms beyond a couple of weeks/long hauler. The social pressure wouldn’t affect me either as my activities don’t overlap with those requiring it other than potentially flying. But I’m getting vaxed because I won’t allow it to use me as a vector to infect others.
“Well, that’s the problem, isn’t it? What does cancelled actually mean?”
Thomas Frank on cancel culture:
“In liberal circles these days there is a palpable horror of the uncurated world, of thought spaces flourishing outside the consensus, of unauthorized voices blabbing freely in some arena where there is no moderator to whom someone might be turned in. The remedy for bad speech, we now believe, is not more speech, as per Justice Brandeis’s famous formula, but an “extremism expert” shushing the world.
…
Let me confess: every time I read one of these stories calling on us to get over free speech or calling on Mark Zuckerberg to press that big red “mute” button on our political opponents, I feel a wave of incredulity sweep over me. Liberals believe in liberty, I tell myself. This can’t really be happening here in the USA.
But, folks, it is happening. And the folly of it all is beyond belief. To say that this will give the right an issue to campaign on is almost too obvious. To point out that it will play straight into the right’s class-based grievance-fantasies requires only a little more sophistication. To say that it is a betrayal of everything we were taught liberalism stood for – a betrayal that we will spend years living down – may be too complex a thought for our punditburo to consider, but it is nevertheless true.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/19/rightwing-misinformation-liberals
“What we don’t know yet about Covid is how the “long-haulers” who have had side effects from having covid are going to do long term. I’ve never heard of those from a general flu.”
“long haulers” are people suffering from anxiety… all the symptoms are exactly the same
“the fear is that 18-29 yr olds will get the ‘rona and give it to someone who WILL die/be hospitalized. Herd immunity requires the whole herd.”
that fear is completely fucking stupid as people without symptoms are not the main vector of spread (in fact its insanely rare like 1/1000 type rare as studies have shown) so if you’re young and sick, don’t go to your grandma’s house. Not really even a big deal anymore as over 70% of people in Illinois age 65 and over have been given the allegedly effective vaccine.
“I have no idea what you are saying here — it sounds like you’re saying people don’t need to get vaccinated because we have vaccines and people are being vaccinated.”
No. I responded to your comment about your fear on how 18 – 29 year olds will continue to unknowingly spread covid causing hospitalizations and death.
We have a vaccine in which the group of people most at risk of negative outcomes to the virus (65+ with underlying issues mainly related to obesity) – hospitalization and death are now 70% vaccinated (at least one dose) in Illinois.
Further, we are starting to receive enough vaccine that we expanded vaccination to the next highest risk populations who are also being vaccinated very quickly.
Who are the 18 – 29 year olds unknowingly spreading Covid to that are going to need to go to the hospital or die which is your fear now that the most at risk group are largely vaccinated within the state?
“the vaccine is still only 90ish % effective.”
I don’t think you know what this statement means. Yes, a small population of people can be re-infected BUT the severity of the re-infection is severely diminished i.e. if you were going to die from Covid it would have been the first time not after re-infection and if you went to the hospital the first time you got Covid the probability if you being re-infected post vaccination requiring hospitalization is also severely limited. I imagine the probability is similar to being struck by lightning.
Even before the vaccine was approved there were studies demonstrating this. “Experts caution that reinfection isn’t necessarily something to be alarmed about. A second infection will probably be way less dangerous than the first.”
This statement is further bolstered by ” The Pfizer vaccine, for example, recently showed 97% protection against symptomatic infection and 94% protection against asymptomatic infection across all age groups studied in a real-world analysis.”
So 3% of people who are vaccinated will have symptomatic infections if they are infected post-vaccination. Considering 100% of the population was susceptible to infection one year ago without the ability to be vaccinated and ~2% of infected people were hospitalized.
This means at most only 2% of people will be hospitalized out of the 3% of people who could get symptomatic covid infection post vaccination or in a country of 350 million people that would by at most 210K and you probably need to lower that 210K in half if not more since the hospitalization rate will fall in infected patients post-vaccine vs. pre-vaccine.
The death rate is what 0.5% which will decrease with the population now vaccinated materially but even at 0.5% that would mean at most 52K people could die post vaccination if they are re-infected. And again 52K is obviously a severe overstatement.
To circle back, this is why the fear of 18 – 29 year olds unknowingly spreading to the 65+ age population leading to more death and hospitalizations is unfounded.
“The more people in the vaxed population, the less vulnerable the unvaxed are.”
This statement assumes there is an equal risk in the distribution of unvaxed people which is not true. That’s why we started with 65+ year olds getting vaccinated. It’s unlikely that the <16 population will be allowed to be vaccinated until fall at the earliest or early next year at the latest as clinical trials are finalizing however per the CDC kids in in the 5 – 17 age range account for less than 10% of all Covid cases.
Further, per the CDC: "Evidence from several studies suggests that children and adolescents may be less commonly infected with SARS-CoV-2 than adults." If they are less likely to be infected they are less likely to be spreaders even when unvaccinated.
They have done multiple studies in schools and in the household that demonstrate children are not the drivers of spread.
The fear was true last spring and fall. That same risk diminishes each day when millions of the most at risk are vaccinated.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-reinfections-rare-older-adults-risk-large/story?id=76510156
Who are the 18 – 29 year olds unknowingly spreading Covid to that are going to need to go to the hospital or die which is your fear now that the most at risk group are largely vaccinated within the state?
Immunocompromised or immunosuppressed individuals. People who are allergic to the vaccine and thus are unvaxed.
This is how herd immunity works. Those who can get vaxxed do so to protect those who can’t.
I mean, you do realize that measles don’t kill most people who get it, right? But we still require vaccinations for measles.
“Immunocompromised or immunosuppressed individuals. People who are allergic to the vaccine and thus are unvaxed”
To date total viral deaths for 18 – 29 year olds since the the beginning of Covid:
Covid Deaths: 1,916
Pneumonia Deaths: 2,109
Covid and Pneumonia Deaths: 850
Influenza Deaths: 150
Immunocompromised and immunosuppressed individuals in the 18 – 29 age bracket are more likely to die of Pneumonia which has been around since 460 BC in which a vaccine was created in 1977 than Covid-19 when we didn’t have a vaccine…..
I don’t understand the point you are trying to make about 18 – 29 year olds. CDC link at the bottom showing the statistics.
“I mean, you do realize that measles don’t kill most people who get it, right? But we still require vaccinations for measles.”
(1) Measles killed 140,000 children under the age of 5 in 2018 per WHO and that death total is down 73% from 2000 due to increases in world wide vaccinations. Since 2000, per WHO the vaccine has saved 23.2 million lives or 1.2 million people per year
(2) Measles vaccine lasts for life
So again you are comparing mandating a vaccine that lasts for life for a disease that still kills 140K children under the age of 5 per year to mandating the Covid-19 vaccine that came out 3 months ago which 18 – 29 year olds have largely been unable to receive yet and who are more likely to die of Pneumonia per the CDC?
So I have to ask you also support mandating annual pneumonia and flu vaccinations for everyone under the age of 30 as well since it’s killed more people <30 than Covid? And if they don't get it each and every year over summer break they are not allowed to go to school, fly on a plane, go to sporting event, I assume can't participate in sports, stay at a hotel, etc., etc., etc.?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
Immunocompromised and immunosuppressed individuals in the 18 – 29 age bracket are moren likely to die of Pneumonia which has been around since 460 BC in which a vaccine was created in 1977 than Covid-19 when we didn’t have a vaccine…..
There are immunocompromised and immunosuppressed individuals in EVERY age bracket. Why are you assuming that 18-29 year olds only associate with other 18-29 yr olds and people 65+ only associate with other people 65+?
I think we are at odds here because you are assuming the only reason one would get vaxed is to protect themselves and I am assuming that vaxing is to protect society.
“Rutgers is a private college which makes it easier to mandate it. Let me know when State Legislatures start passing bills for public schools.”
Rutgers is a public college. It’s the State University of New Jersey.
“none of those things will happen in your, or your children’s lifetimes so literally has zero effect on current real estate trends”
Miami now has king tide for like 20 days a year. Used to be 4 days.
It will be underwater in my lifetime, depending on how many billions they spend.
And California even worse. Whole towns are already going into the ocean there.
“You are seriously comparing a passport issued by the State Department which is the federal version of a State ID to showing your health records to the Government or private company?”
You clearly don’t have a passport WP. It already tracks you. AND it already has your vaccinations in it, if the country you’re going to requires them to issue you a visa.
Yawn.
This is much ado about nothing. We have had “vaccine passports” for years, already. I just hope they can make it secure from hackers etc.
And your problem is going to be with Disney, Quantas Airlines etc. who may make having it mandatory to go to their facilities or use their products. What are you going to do then?
Nothing.
Capitalism!
“The COVID scamdemic is part of a Great Reset program targeted at the Western world in particular. Africa and Asia are non-white so not targeted under this attack.”
What about Mexico? They’re not white.
What about Chile?
What about Brazil?
What about South Africa?
None of them are “white”- are they? Or are Mexicans white people now HH?
Mexico just admitted they’ve really had 312,000 deaths from COVID, putting them at #2 in the world, after the United States, of course. Brazil should surpass everyone by this summer as its just horrific there right now due to their COVID denier leader. The incompetence.
And yes, HH, just wait until there’s a woman President, VP, and half of Congress, or more, are women. Just wait until there are 9 female Supreme Court Justices.
It’s coming HH.
“Sounds like bread and butter low-risk u/w to me.”
Sure Jan.
You are laughable WP. Simply clueless.
“Tootsie Roll? Really”
Uhhh…yeah. Cargill? ADM is HQ in Chicago now.
Come on JohnnyU. Whenever you say I don’t know anything, it’s clear you’re the clueless one. you’re projecting your own lack of knowledge. It’s so obvious.
Once again, you have NO idea what is even going on in Chicago and what our great industries even are.
Chicago is the biggest city in the food industry in America. It’s why we have all the indoor urban farming, restaurant HQs, food ingredient companies, manufacturers, shippers, farmers etc. You go where the talent is. And that talent starts other companies.
Oh, by the way, yet another billion dollar tech company in Chicago again in Cameo. Lots of talent everywhere. Anyone who thinks it’s going to “go away” because of the pandemic is delusional.
“Transmission doesn’t equal severity.”
—————————
Death rate does. Which is why, when talking about the need for vaccines, you have to mention both the death rate, and the infectiousness, of a disease. You and your ilk whine that Covid is no more deadly than the flu, but refuse to mention that Covid is 10 times more infectious than the flu. You want us to act like Covid is the flu when it is materially different.
Like I said, a lie by omission is still a lie.
“Uhhh…yeah. Cargill? ADM is HQ in Chicago now.”
And what? 100 jobs – Great if you’re in the Food industry
Tootsie Roll is a rounding error on Cargill balance sheet
“It’s why we have all the indoor urban farming, restaurant HQs, food ingredient companies, manufacturers, shippers, farmers etc. You go where the talent is. And that talent starts other companies.”
Indoor Farming – LOL
Restaurant – Retail
Food Ingredient Companies – Already addressed
Farmers – LOL lots of farmers in Chicago. PS Corn & Beans is feed, not food
Not that Chicago isnt a desert, but its no where near the top.
LA/Greater Denver/MSP are all doing a lot more innovative work
You’re wrong, take the L and go away
“Death rate does. Which is why, when talking about the need for vaccines, you have to mention both the death rate, and the infectiousness, of a disease. You and your ilk whine that Covid is no more deadly than the flu, but refuse to mention that Covid is 10 times more infectious than the flu. You want us to act like Covid is the flu when it is materially different.
Like I said, a lie by omission is still a lie.”
Who are my ilk? I already got my first shot
Death rate is severity its not the same as transmission. The reason it has a higher transmisson rate is that its able to spread for a longer time than the Flu
A lie is still a lie
All this debate about vaccinations has me thinking about how we all could be needing boosters in a few months as new variations that are more resistant to the current vaccines get more common. I’m worried this logistical stuff we’re dealing with now is just the start. The key is to get things back to normal so we can all live with this like we live with other communicable diseases. If it ends up killing 75,000 mostly older people each year (like the flu), maybe that’s something we’re just going to have to live with, because we can’t go on like this forever.
“Why are you assuming that 18-29 year olds only associate with other 18-29 yr olds and people 65+ only associate with other people 65+?”
Your original comment that led to the discussion:
“The fear isn’t that 18-29 year olds will get COVID and die/be hospitalized, the fear is that 18-29 yr olds will get the ‘rona and give it to someone who WILL die/be hospitalized. Herd immunity requires the whole herd.”
Understand?
“You clearly don’t have a passport WP. It already tracks you. AND it already has your vaccinations in it, if the country you’re going to requires them to issue you a visa.”
(i) I have a passport
(ii) current passports do not track people unless they are flying outside the country. It’s a piece of paper.
(iii) If I go a country that mandates proof of vaccination I’m under that country’s laws not the US.
(iv) Leisure travel to the US from foreign countries does not require any vaccinations to get in the US. Only if you are immigrating to the US.
Understand?
No. My original comment assumes the 18-29 year old could give covid to others in ANY age group, including their own.
“And your problem is going to be with Disney, Quantas Airlines etc. who may make having it mandatory to go to their facilities or use their products. What are you going to do then”
(i) DeSantis announced he is signing an executive order barring governments and private companies from requiring passports. That takes care of Disney
(ii) They can’t make it mandatory. The vaccines were approved under EUA by the FDA meaning that current benefits outweigh the risks however the companies still need to work towards full FDA approval which will take several years.
This is borne out by the first mandatory covid-19 vaccination lawsuit brought by 7 teachers in LA against the LA school district which was filed the other day.
“Teachers in Los Angeles sued the city’s school district for mandating vaccines as a condition for work despite not being fully approved by the federal government.
“For its part, the FDA refers to the COVID Vaccines as ‘investigational products’ – i.e., they remain experimental,” the plaintiffs stated in the lawsuit. “In accordance with the governing statute, the FDA requires that patients and caregivers be informed of their right to refuse administration of the product.”
Education Secretary Miguel Cardona has been vocal about not mandating vaccines for all educators.
“We know there are examples of schools safety reopening without everybody being vaccinated,” Cardona said in an interview on ABC’s The View on Friday.
“Rutgers faculty and staff are also encouraged to get immunized against COVID-19 at the earliest opportunity,” the university stated. “All members of our community may register with the State in order to get vaccinated.”
Don’t you think if mandating a vaccination was legal the Education Secretary, Congress, President and Governors would be writing and passing laws? Instead they support through lip service but come and say we will not mandate it. There’s a reason for that.
If the faculty and teachers cannot be mandated for the vaccine who are at higher risk of negative outcomes from Covid compared to younger populations how is it legal for students to be mandated?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rutgers-university-students-vaccinated-190844608.html
Luckily most of the above statements/comments only represent a small subset of the overall society.
If it wasn’t I would be horribly sad for humanity.
BTW if you read it as comedy, it is actually very entertaining.
“No. My original comment assumes the 18-29 year old could give covid to others in ANY age group, including their own.”
Go back and read my responses. The older populations are now vaccinated so what are you talking about? We are going in circles. I don’t know what you are trying to argue at this point.
” he is signing an executive order barring governments and private companies from requiring passports. That takes care of Disney”
Isn’t this an example of the government overreach that we’ve been warned about??
“The reason it has a higher transmisson rate is that its able to spread for a longer time than the Flu”
————————–
The fact of the higher transmission rate is relevant. The mechanics behind the higher transmission rate are irrelevant.
Sing and dance all you want, but Covid is more infectious than the flu and has killed 10 times as many people. You cannot use social measures for flu prevention to fight Covid. You need different, stronger, measures.
Go back and read my responses. The older populations are now vaccinated so what are you talking about?
I pretty clearly state SEVERAL TIMES that there are members of “the older population” who are unable to get vaccinated. Herd immunity is needed to protect those people.
“The fact of the higher transmission rate is relevant. The mechanics behind the higher transmission rate are irrelevant.
Sing and dance all you want, but Covid is more infectious than the flu and has killed 10 times as many people. You cannot use social measures for flu prevention to fight Covid. You need different, stronger, measures.”
Look, only one person is authorized to distort and twist facts to fit a narrative and render them absolutely meaningless, and thats Sabrina
Now
Where did I post anything about Covid having lower transmission? I’ll wait…
All of this has zero to do with “Transmission doesnt equal severity”
“Isn’t this an example of the government overreach that we’ve been warned about??”
Local governments and private companies such as Disney can sue the State of Florida if they feel this is government overreach and the courts can adjudicate no? We have a system of checks and balances still……
“Sing and dance all you want, but Covid is more infectious than the flu and has killed 10 times as many people. You cannot use social measures for flu prevention to fight Covid. You need different, stronger, measures.”
I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but what kind of stronger measures do you mean? Because in the US, states with the strongest measures seem to have the worst covid-19 case numbers/death rates, while cases with the weakest measures, by some metrics, fared slightly better. Europe, which repeatedly completely locks down and open back up up again, seems to have fared worst of all in the world, while many African and Asian countries (other than China) took very limited measures, and they’re doing just fine. As for masks, the Phillipines has the highest mask compliance in the world, but cases are rising there despite the masks? It seems that unless you want to weld people into their homes, like the did in Wuhan, and completely cover up and lie about the death count, the virus seems to do it’s own thing in poorly ventilated indoor environments, and there’s no way to prevent people from going into poorly ventilated indoor environments, unless you weld them into their homes.
Where did I post anything about Covid having lower transmission? I’ll wait…
All of this has zero to do with “Transmission doesnt equal severity”
——————————————–
You didn’t, that’s the problem. You and your ilk lie by omission by constantly stating that Covid is no more deadly than the flu, but ignoring the greater transmissability of Covid, which has led to 10 times the number of deaths that flu causes.
So the one distorting and twisting facts vis-a-vis Covid is not me. Stop lying by omission already.
“I pretty clearly state SEVERAL TIMES that there are members of “the older population” who are unable to get vaccinated.”
What’s the number or percentage of mythical older people who are unable to get vaccinated? Please provide statistics and it better not be anecdotal. We are at 70% of the country and climbing daily of the 65+ year old population with at least one dose of the vaccine.
You have the right to double mask after you are vaccinated and not hang out with people. That’s your choice. Maybe you liked staying in your home or working from home for a year now but most people don’t. Sorry. This irrational fear you have sounds like a you problem.
“I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but what kind of stronger measures do you mean? Because in the US, states with the strongest measures seem to have the worst covid-19 case numbers/death rates, while cases with the weakest measures, by some metrics, fared slightly better. Europe, which repeatedly completely locks down and open back up up again, seems to have fared worst of all in the world, while many African and Asian countries (other than China) took very limited measures, and they’re doing just fine…..”
—————————-
Uh, the Phillipines is an asian country, thank you, and stating that Africa is doing fine is just a bald-faced lie.
Europe, as you say, locks down and re-opens. It’s problem is that it re-opens too readily and doesn’t phase in re-openings. When locked down, however, rates (of infection and death) go down.
So stronger measures — mask mandates, business capacity limits — things we don’t do with just the flu.
Might even be nice to rescind the CDC eviction moratorium in those states that don’t have mask mandates and the like. Eviction was seen as a major transmission vector when everything was locked down. In areas with no mask mandates or capacity restrictions, however, eviction is not a major vector. So put those governors in a bind: If you want to keep eviction moratoria (popular with tenants), impose mask and capacity mandates.
BTW — good article in the Economist of March 20th – 26th about Covid-19 in Papua New Guinea and the danger it poses to New Zealand and Australia.
So your statement about Asia and Africa doing just fine is pure lying BS.
“You didn’t, that’s the problem. You and your ilk lie by omission by constantly stating that Covid is no more deadly than the flu, but ignoring the greater transmissability of Covid, which has led to 10 times the number of deaths that flu causes.”
Who is my ilk? The ones getting vaccinated?
The ones noting that based on the data, Children dont seem to be a vector and we should open schools back up?
The ones that think that we’d better served getting as many people that arent high risk their first shot and then follow up with the 2nd after the majority of folks have had their first shot (J&J not withstanding)
The ones that think Bucktown’s boundaries are ever changing?
“So the one distorting and twisting facts vis-a-vis Covid is not me. Stop lying by omission already.”
Again, show me the error in the statement. Your statement was flat out incorrect, why you’re doubling down on stupid is beyond my ability to fathom
You’re moving into Sabrina territory
“Local governments and private companies such as Disney can sue the State of Florida if they feel this is government overreach and the courts can adjudicate no?”
Same is true w/r/t all restrictions on whatever, no?
But people keep bringing up the looming threat of authoritarianism. Either it is, or it isn’t, regardless of who is issuing what dumbass executive order.
“Who is my ilk? The ones getting vaccinated?”
———————–
Nope: The ones talking severity but dodging transmissibility. Personal vaccination status is irrelevant.
“Nope: The ones talking severity but dodging transmissibility”
Where did I dodge transmissibility?
I noted that children dont seem as susceptible or a vector, is this wrong?
“I noted that children dont seem as susceptible or a vector, is this wrong?”
———————-
I don’t know. I have heard that children don’t seem to get as sick as adults do, but have heard nothing about children not being able to transmit the disease to others.
johnc, you really are a true believer, facts and science don’t matter to you:
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/africas-confirmed-covid-19-cases-surpass-42-mln-africa-cdc/ar-BB1f9Ya3
Africa has 1.3 Billion people and only 112,471 deaths. There were some closures of schools, flights and events, but continent wide, there was nothing like what they’ve done in Italy or Germany or the UK.
So yeah, this seems like a ‘just fine’ response to me, some of the best in the world actually.
Unintended consequences of South Africa’s stringent lock downs:
https://news.yahoo.com/africas-rail-stations-ruins-covid-104844281.html
S.Africa’s rail stations in ruins after Covid lockdown plunder
South Africa’s railway infrastructure has been ravaged during coronavirus lockdown, with thieves plundering anything from cables and handrails to bricks and doors.
In the strictest months of confinement last year, looters went to work on unguarded stations and railway infrastructure, making off with almost anything that could be ripped off or cut down and carted off.
Kliptown, a train station in the famous Johannesburg township of Soweto, lies in ruins, stripped bare of its windows and doors and even its roof.
Signalling and electric cables have been yanked out. Staircase railings have been sawn off. Even the perimeter walls have not been spared, with bricks bashed out and hauled away.
“It’s like an atomic bomb was thrown here… It’s like a tsunami,” lamented a community leader, George Mohlala, 37, pointing to the ruined station.
When President Cyril Ramaphosa placed the country under a strict lockdown, railway stations were left unguarded.
More than 80 percent of the country’s train stations have been vandalised, the state-owned rail operator Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) said.
What’s left of the ticketing office in the Kliptown station are shards of glass — the only evidence of turnstiles that once functioned here.
Homedelete, read about Tanzania (Its Covid-denying president just dies of Covid), and then remember that official statistics in Africa are as bad now as Brasil’s used to be until reality intervened and forced Brazil to be more accurate.
The article you quoted noted that things seemed to be worse in southern Africa. Why is that? I’ll tell you — southern Africa includes South Africa, a country that has good statistics. Other countries are like Tanzania when it comes to accurate statistics.
Per the Economist, Tanzania stopped releasing official statistics about a year ago because the numbers were getting bad.
So, no, I do believe in science and facts, just not made up crap like “Trump won the 2020 election” or “Africa is doing fine regarding Covid-19.”
“Africa has 1.3 Billion people and only 112,471 deaths”
Not a lot of fat people and younger population unlike the Europe and US.
Further, the US throws old people in nursuing homes to die unlike most countries where old people live in multi-generational families.
Further the nursing home policies of certain states don’t help. Not throwing covid positive patients back into nursing homes.
Also, in Illinois, our lovely state government didn’t buy the right hand sanitizer for veterans homes.
JohnC New York Times article 3 weeks ago explaining this. Ignore the headline of the link.
“Across Africa and much of Asia, the population is younger. Birthrates are higher, and other health problems more frequently kill people before they reach old age. In sub-Saharan Africa, only 3 percent of the population is 65 or older. In Pakistan, only 4 percent is. In the U.S., the share is 16 percent, and it’s 20 percent in the European Union.
A related factor may be the fact that nursing homes — where Covid has often spread from one resident to the next — are more common in Western countries. Outside the West, older people often live in multigenerational households.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/briefing/oprah-meghan-interview-biden-stimulus-bill.html
“Africa has 1.3 Billion people and only 112,471 deaths.”
China has 1.4B and under 5,000 (reported) deaths.
“ohnC New York Times article 3 weeks ago explaining this. Ignore the headline of the link.
“Across Africa and much of Asia, the population is younger. Birthrates are higher, and other health problems more frequently kill people before they reach old age. In sub-Saharan Africa, only 3 percent of the population is 65 or older. In Pakistan, only 4 percent is. In the U.S., the share is 16 percent, and it’s 20 percent in the European Union.
A related factor may be the fact that nursing homes — where Covid has often spread from one resident to the next — are more common in Western countries. Outside the West, older people often live in multigenerational households.””
——————————-
Which simply proves the point that you have to discuss severity (deaths) simultaneously with infection (transmission). You can’t do just one and then say “it’s like the flu.”
Younger people don’t die from Covid at the rate us old farts do. What I was pointing out, however, is that the numbers of “confirmed” cases is way too low in Africa, because the statistics are gathered in such a lousy fashion and manipulated.
In China, the statistics are hidden and manipulated.
“China has 1.4B and under 5,000 (reported) deaths.”
No serious believes this.
So the one thing we can agree on is that Africa and parts of Asia did a better job than the US, because they have fewer old people!
What’s the number or percentage of mythical older people who are unable to get vaccinated? Please provide statistics and it better not be anecdotal.
LOL. You seem to be under the impression that I work for you or owe you something. I am talking in generalities about how public health / herd immunity work, doing so on a real estate website, not presenting a paper at a medical conference.
People unable to get vaccinated are not mythical — people unable to get vaccinated are one of the main reasons for pushing for high vaccination rates in order to develop herd immunity.
This irrational fear you have sounds like a you problem.
LOL again. I have very little fear for myself, as I have both a) had covid and b) gotten my first vax shot and have a pending appointment for my 2nd.
I have already made plans for a family “Christmas in July” and have booked international travel (FULLY REFUNDABLE!) for later in the summer.
I intend to take reasonable precautions and I fully expect society as a whole to take reasonable precautions. One of those reasonable precautions is that if you can vax, you should vax.
“Which simply proves the point that you have to discuss severity (deaths) simultaneously with infection (transmission). You can’t do just one and then say “it’s like the flu.””
Who are you referring to as “you” in this statement and Who said “it’s like the flu”?
“I am talking in generalities about how public health”
So you have no information on these mythical people that are unable to get the vaccine due to poor health? Ok. Thanks for clearing that up. So you have argued in like 10 posts about “generalities” that don’t exist in real life. Got it.
“People unable to get vaccinated are not mythical”
You said certain people that are 65+ are unable to get vaccinated because of allergies or health issues. Your quote below:
“Even if every single person over the age of 65 got vaccinated (which they won’t because some people can’t get vaccinated — allergies or health issues, etc.)”
What allergy prevents people from getting the Covid vaccine? The CDC guidance says if you get the first shot and have a severe allergic reaction you shouldn’t get the second shot. The first shot alone is 80%+ effective.
What “people with health issues” can’t get the vaccine? Do you consider nursing home residents as healthy? They got the vaccine months ago. Literally the first group of people.
Then you complained about the vaccine only being 90% effective which you clearly don’t understand what that means.
You have either been purposely trolling for the past day which bravo good troll job, gaslighting, spreading disinformation, and goal post moving, or I strongly suggest not taking Facebook memes as facts.
Also 80%+ of 65+ year olds have been vaccinated in cook county. The numbers keep increasing daily.
The only people that are not going to get vaccinated in the 65+ age bracket are people that don’t want the vaccine. That’s on them not some mythical allergy or health condition.
Here’s the final straw on this one: From actual doctors at the University of Utah:
“Why should older adults get vaccinated? Should they be worried if they have any underlying health conditions or are frail?
Supiano: It’s been known since the beginning of the pandemic that older people are at very high risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes—and even death. In Utah, data over the last year shows 70 percent of deaths from COVID-19 have been in people age 65 and older—over 1,500 deaths total. Age is a strong risk factor in bad outcomes in COVID-19. This is why it’s extremely important for older adults to get the vaccine as soon as possible. People who are in this age group—who have multiple chronic conditions, who may be frail, or living in a nursing home—all the more need the vaccine. The data we have at this point suggests the two vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech) that are available are extremely safe and well tolerated in this age group.”
“Should people be concerned about experiencing adverse reactions to the vaccine?
Spivak: Eleven in a million people have experienced severe allergic reactions to the vaccine, which is extremely rare. These are allergic reactions like swelling, itching, and difficulty breathing. Allergic reactions to the COVID-19 vaccines are very uncommon and tend to occur in people who had previous allergic reactions to other medications or vaccines. Overall, severe side effects are rare, and the likelihood of experiencing an adverse reaction to the vaccine is far less common than the rate of getting COVID-19.”
Anything else?
https://healthcare.utah.edu/healthfeed/postings/2021/01/vaccine-older-adults.php
“So the one thing we can agree on is that Africa and parts of Asia did a better job than the US, because they have fewer old people!”
Slight modification on the timeframe–“have so far done” a better job–but sure, close enough.
“No [one] serious[ly] believes this.”
Of course not, but also can’t believe the Africa numbers, as there are at least a few nations that explicitly stopped keeping track, and a few more that are basically incapable of keeping accurate track due to some mix of war, poverty, corruption, ineffectiveness (kinda like Chicago!).
Yale seems to think these mythical people exist:
https://yalehealth.yale.edu/yale-covid-19-vaccine-program/who-should-and-shouldnt-get-covid-19-vaccine
People with a severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis) to any component of the COVID-19 vaccine should NOT receive the vaccine.
And yes, the percentage of people who had a reaction to the vaccine is very low. However, people who are known to have a severe allergic reaction to any component of the vaccine WERE NOT GIVEN THE VACCINE, even in trials.
Please write another 200-word screed about how nobody needs to get a vaccination because everyone who needs one has already gotten one.
“200-word screed”
more like 500
“People with a severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis) to any component of the COVID-19 vaccine should NOT receive the vaccine.”
This is what the Utah Dr. said in my post above. The only way to find out if you have a severe allergic reaction to any component of the COVID-19 Vaccine means you have to get the first dose of the COVID-19 Vaccine. If this occurs the guidance from the Utah and the Yale people that you cited is to not get the second vaccine. I understand words are hard for you.
“However, people who are known to have a severe allergic reaction to any component of the vaccine WERE NOT GIVEN THE VACCINE, even in trials.”
The guidance you cite says people with historical severe allergic reaction should talk to their doctor before getting the vaccine. It does not say don’t get the vaccine.
Just give up already.
“Please write another 200-word screed about how nobody needs to get a vaccination because everyone who needs one has already gotten one.”
I never said that. That’s obviously not true. You were arguing how old people couldn’t get the vaccine because of underlying health issues or allergy issues which isn’t true and you were trying to make some weird argument on how 18 – 29 year olds would infect them even though everyone can get the vaccine that’s 16+ or older now in Illinois and will be eligible in all other States by May 1 at the latest.
The only people that aren’t going to get the vaccine are people that refuse to get it.
Any other “fake-news” and misinformation that you would like to spew? Maybe stay off Facebook for a few weeks. Might help.
I never said that. That’s obviously not true
http://cribchatter.com/?p=27568#comment-1090247
We have a vaccine now and the people that most need it are quickly getting it. Further, humans have unknowingly spread viruses to other people accidently who did die or hospitalized for centuries but now we are all supposed to think about this possibility which is quickly becoming remote since we have highly effective vaccines.
I was responding to your comment below. You are either incredibly dishonest or just unable to interpret anything i’m saying.
“The fear isn’t that 18-29 year olds will get COVID and die/be hospitalized, the fear is that 18-29 yr olds will get the ‘rona and give it to someone who WILL die/be hospitalized.”:
So we are full circle for like the 10th time of your irrational fear of 18 – 29 year olds killing or hospitalizing the mythical elderly people who can’t be vaccinated due to their allergy’s and underlying health conditions even though they continue to be vaccinated by the day and are now 80%+ vaccinated. And as of this week almost everyone in the State is eligible to sign up and receive the vaccine.
Which you then followed up gaslighting on why I was so fascinated with 18 – 29 year olds. Idk maybe because you brought it up…..
I’ve never seen someone try so hard to twist someone’s words at every point because they have been wrong on every comment they have made.
I’ve said multiple times on this blog get the vaccine when you are eligible to get it as it’s safe and effective. You continued to counter on how 90% effectiveness isn’t good enough as again you are incredibly dishonest or just have no idea what you are talking about.
What else do you want to be wrong about?
I dunno, dude, I was responding to sonies and you jumped in.
Specifically, I was responding to this:
http://cribchatter.com/?p=27568#comment-1090240
there’s 53,000,000 18-29 year olds and only 1900 have had deaths ‘involving’ covid, or .003%
vaccines should NOT be mandatory for anyone under the age of 70, and well IMO, vaccines shouldn’t be mandatory at all for this virus if they don’t want to take one. Just like the flu shot.
“So the one thing we can agree on is that Africa and parts of Asia did a better job than the US, because they have fewer old people!”
Asia is old. Both Japan and China have among the oldest populations in the world. Age is not the reason they “did a better job.”
Guys: Part of the reason I still check in here is for Madeline’s witty/funny takes on some things. And for whatever reason she’s gotten into the weeds with some of you as to Covid-related debate points, etc. (resisting doing so can be hard). You know what? In places like New Zealand, there aren’t such debates. They have conservatives and liberals, morons and smart people, and everything in between, there, too. But they don’t have Covid. Or mass shootings. Get a grip.
“I’m worried this logistical stuff we’re dealing with now is just the start. The key is to get things back to normal so we can all live with this like we live with other communicable diseases.”
Dan #2: We have to get the cases way down. Have to get to under 1% positivity like Israel is doing. It’s possible to do this year as long as we keep on this vaccine trajectory. But more troubling is to make sure it’s happening in other countries as well.
As long as you don’t have outbreaks, no reason we can’t get back to normal. Just need to cut down its circulation.
“Tootsie Roll is a rounding error on Cargill balance sheet”
Huh?
So because Chicago doesn’t have Cargill but does have literally dozens of other huge food companies, it isn’t the top in the country for food?
So if you want to work in food, you don’t want to move to Chicago so you can work at:
Kraft
Mondelez
Sara Lee
Treehouse Foods
ADM
Quaker Oats
Tootsie Roll
CF Industries
Ferrara Candy
Ingredion
PepsiCo isn’t headquartered here, but amazingly, they somehow ended up with 1300 employees working at the Old Post Office building.
Gosh, why would they bother to have all those people working HERE?
Gosh. I can’t figure that out. Why would you want to have a big office in Chicago?
Gosh.
And Tock was just bought out today for $400 million. Another tech/food start-up based in Chicago by the guys at Alinea.
Chicago is rocking right now. This comes on the heels of Cameo getting a $1 billion valuation.
America did terrible with COVID because we are a society of fat asses. We can no longer call anyone out for living an unhealthy life style because then we are “body shaming” them. Get a grip. We’re a bunch of softies now. As a result, I have to subsidize a bunch of other peoples health care because they won’t work out or won’t stop drinking 5 pops a day. Until we incentivize people to live a healthy lifestyle (lower insurance premium like we do for non smokers) we will continue to be a nation of fat asses.
Kraft
Mondelez
Sara Lee
Treehouse Foods
ADM – 100 jobs in Chicago?
Quaker Oats
Tootsie Roll -LOL
CF Industries – did you just run a google search? How often do you eat fertilizer?
Ferrara Candy – LOL.
Ingredion
While there are some nice companies, they are generally legacy and boring, Ingredion is kinda the exception. If you add them up do you even get to Cargill’s revenue?
Keep on trying it’s cute
Tock is a tech company you moron.
“Tock is a tech company”
A *retail* tech company.
“A *retail* tech company”
Well if you’re including a fertilizer company as a food company, it probably qualifies
“America did terrible with COVID because we are a society of fat asses.”
And Krispy Kreme offering free to donuts to people who got vaccinated is so America.
“Have to get to under 1% positivity like Israel is doing.”
It’s that low because of their vaccination campaign. Their cases began to plummet once they got to >25% of their population vaccinated which is where the U.S. just got to. That’s why I call this uptick a bump not another surge.
Further, Israel released studies showing correlation that as the older population became more vaccinated there were less cases occurring in the younger unvaccinated populations.
“Asia is old. Both Japan and China have among the oldest populations in the world. Age is not the reason they “did a better job.”
What’s their obesity rates compared to the US? I’ll wait.
“t’s possible to do this year as long as we keep on this vaccine trajectory. But more troubling is to make sure it’s happening in other countries as well.”
This would happen if Biden would either suspend or modify patent and IP protection for the Covid-19 drugs so more manufactures in other countries could mass produce a generic version of the vaccine and thus vaccinate their population.
However, Pfizer/Moderna/J&J do not want that to happen and there’s plenty of former paid consultants of these companies that are now part of the Biden admin.
The inability to modify or suspend IP protection’s narrowly for this drug is the long-term tail risk for Covid.
The intercept had a great article on this.
https://theintercept.com/2021/03/24/covid-vaccine-stocks-biden-conflict/
Thanks, annony. I have noticed the discourse on here getting nastier and more personal and I really don’t want to feed into that. I apologize if I have.
“In places like New Zealand, there aren’t such debates. They have conservatives and liberals, morons and smart people, and everything in between, there, too. But they don’t have Covid.”
Plenty of New Zealanders are pissed at their governments handling of Covid specifically expats.
No country has had a good Covid response. I’d rather get Covid then deal with the crap they did. I would go review their alert level systems and how long they were in alert level 3 and 4 which basically confined you to your home unless you were going to the grocery store.
They literally locked down the whole country for 4 cases back in August and no one died of Covid in the whole month of August. That’s crazy. Get a better system.
Bloomberg had an article last week about how they expect a double dip recession there now when Q1 numbers are reported.
Every countries response has been to sacrifice young people’s well-being for the 65+ retired crowd. Gee thanks. Future looks so awesome! I guess if you are a geriatric this benefits you while screwing everyone else over.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/25/anger-and-sadness-over-new-rules-for-returning-to-new-zealand-covid
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/nearly-a-third-of-new-zealanders-felt-badly-distressed-in-covid-lockdown
I hate to break it to all of you, but you are ALL wrong. Horribly, horribly, horribly wrong. Regardless of all the anecdotal you are passing along as facts, you are still wrong.
If any of you wonderful *experts* were correct in any way, then you wouldn’t be on a Chicago green zone real estate blog, nor have time to type and post your *expert* thoughts. And if any of you were even close to correct, then I wouldn’t be in my PJ’s still at 2pm reading a real estate blog because I finished all of YouTube this past year.
That said, its gonna be warm this weekend and BriBri will start seeing more great places popping up for us to talk nasty about the decor, the gator deck, liberal use of sqft, and why more people don’t see Jeff Park as an option.
And why and the heck do I still have to do math to post on this site?
“Again, the wishing for the doom when everything is different this March compared to last March. We’ve been living with this virus for a year. No one sees the need to panic and move home with mom and dad in the suburbs anymore.
In a week they’ll be at the Cubs home opener.”
Man are Cubs fans racists or what? Booing the Mayor after all her wonderful leadership. What a bunch of ingrates
“Who has been cancelled?”
Apparently Obama in Waukegan. This is hilarious. When he warned that Liberals by lose because they create circular firing squads a few years back. I think this is what he meant.
Anyone know if the children are still fully remote or hybrid at this school? This story belongs in the onion if it’s still fully remote.
When’s someone going to say just rename all schools after numbers or letters i.e. PS #1, #2, #2, or PS A, B, C. That will end this stupid time suck.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/us/thomas-jefferson-ms-waukegan-illinois-obama-rename-trnd/index.html
“When’s someone going to say just rename all schools after numbers or letters i.e. PS #1, #2, #2, or PS A, B, C. That will end this stupid time suck. ”
The problem with letters, and numbers, is that they are both semetic and indo-european centric, and privileged. Not everyone has ancestors dating back ten thousand years who first used phoenician letters, which got culturally misappropriated by the greeks, which again was misappropriated by the etruscians, and the Latins stole in turn from them. There’s a theory that one greek man, 3 thousand years ago, created the greek alphabet using phoecian letters and sounds, because he wanted to be able to write down Homer. One man!
As for Arabic numerals? Well, they’re really indian, and sanskrit is a *PIE language, before the arabs took the numbers, and the bad europeans culturally misappropriated them too. What about those people with ancestors from from Asia, or Africa, or Austral-Asia, or native americans? Why should they be forced to use numbers developed by *PIE speaker descendants and letters stolen from Phoecians?
I don’t know how to solve these problem other than to introduce non-latin and non-arabic numerals into the school name and administration. Otherwise it’s just unearned privilege for everyone.
I’m 100% serious about this.
(OK maybe not, APRIL FOOLS!)
“I have noticed the discourse on here getting nastier and more personal and I really don’t want to feed into that.“
Sabrina being the worst of them all with discourse.
“Sabrina being the worst of them all with discourse.”
I think she’s funny. Its obvious she doesn’t work in corporate America and hasn’t in awhile (if ever) and is just a suburban mom who reads ie: USNews for college rankings.
She reads a lot online but that’s no substitute for having an idea of what its like to be successful in Chicagoland. Those who throw out Ivy League, Big Law & mega tech like Google you can just tell are reading the USNews trying to gain insight into how successful people became successful.
Most of my social circle is completely separated from what her idea of what it takes to be successful in this metro area takes and are doing okay even if not getting as rich as they should be due to the exorbitant taxes here.
My richest friends are 1099s: they know not to play the W2 game where statists have grandiose societal plans that incorporate their economic rents.
“I think she’s funny. Its obvious she doesn’t work in corporate America and hasn’t in awhile (if ever) and is just a suburban mom who reads ie: USNews for college rankings.”
Disagree, her attitude is 100% corporate middle manager drone with an unearned elevated sense of infallibility.
She’s become a lot more Pollyanna-ish/insane because its providing some income her way (Thanks for the ads!) Guessing she’s gotten close to JoeZ to try and learn how to monetize this site. Being a disagreeable shill and shouting BS is a drive page hits.
“Guessing she’s gotten close to JoeZ to try and learn how to monetize this site.”
I’ve been blogging for 14 years. Why would I only NOW need to get “close” to the one who shall not be named?
LMFAO.
“Disagree, her attitude is 100% corporate middle manager drone with an unearned elevated sense of infallibility. ”
It’s bad manners to attack the owner of the website who allows you to post here. She owns this site, it’s hers, she can do whatever she wants with it. She allows more dissent (because anyone who disagrees with the Party Line these days is a dissenter) than most other places on the internet. You can disagree with her, and sometime her style mimics abrasive mayor lightfoot, but that’s her prerogative. I know it’s cliche to say “go start your own real estate website” but it’s the truth. There’s a little time left before the Dissent becomes deplatformed, so you should start sooner rather than later. Maybe I’ll even follow you over there to have discussions with like minded people, and not get two dozen downvotes for stating obvious truths, while silly, unserious and propaganda parrots like Madeline spout nonsense that no one believed was true until 12 months ago.
And JohnnyU, you committed the cardinal sin of speaking the name of he who shall never be named. You should know better than that. What’s wrong with you?
“Most of my social circle is completely separated from what her idea of what it takes to be successful in this metro area takes and are doing okay even if not getting as rich as they should be due to the exorbitant taxes here.”
Bob, have no idea what the 22 year olds are doing in Chicago.
Some of the apartment buildings in Fulton Market are already back to 95% occupancy. Job market will be red hot. No ambitious 22 year old is sitting in some second tier city “working from home” if they can come to Chicago and work for Google and live in Fulton Market. Nor are they living in the suburbs.
Sorry.
The city is already back. The bears have been completely wrong.
The Chicago housing market is red hot. Nothing on the market and what is is already under contract. Some neighborhoods literally have no single family homes for sale, at all, under $1 million.
But even so-so condos are now selling quickly.
The economy is going to boom by this summer, including Chicago. If you haven’t already nabbed that apartment, you’d better hurry.
For the ones confused on what vaccine effectiveness means. IDPH released numbers Wednesday on the vaccinated population:
– 2.1 million fully vaccinated
– 399 positive tests after full vaccination
– 17 people hospitalized after full vaccination
Further, Block Club had an article today talking about the uptick in Chicago. They (Arwady & Chicago Public Health) are not seeing an uptick in older populations (given they are largely vaccinated). The uptick is coming from those <40 (who were just approved to be vaccinated as of Monday).
https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20210331/how-many-fully-vaccinated-in-illinois-have-still-gotten-covid-19-been-hospitalized
“Sabrina being the worst of them all with discourse.”
It’s the bears refusing to acknowledge that they are dead wrong. And so they personally attack me.
Why?
Why are you all rooting against Chicago???
I don’t get it.
Chicago is about to boom like we haven’t seen in well over a decade. Hooray!
And the housing market, which is already red hot, is going to get even hotter. And good! Chicago prices have been so depressed for so long, it’s about time there was some appreciation in this great city.
“Most of my social circle is completely separated from what her idea of what it takes to be successful in this metro area takes and are doing okay even if not getting as rich as they should be due to the exorbitant taxes here.”
Yeah but most people show up in Chicago buried in debt, with a middling state school (not even flagship) degree; only to grind it out at some meaningless corporate job, sacrificing their most valuable years for a boss that owns a lake home up north, while you overpay to live in a ‘luxury’ rental in some high crime neighborhood. There’s only so many slots available at the top, and essentially class (with markers such as top degrees, woke-speak, and lifestyle choices) being the overwhelming deciding factor of who makes it, and who doesn’t. So many, if not most, people, leave Chicago entirely, and move on in search of success (and they often find it elsewhere). They only stay if they have family here, or a great job, or a spouse with family here, or some other anchor. It’s not the low taxes, well run government, great weather, generous people and great culture keeping people here, hahahhah!
“The uptick is coming from those <40 (who were just approved to be vaccinated as of Monday)."
Most of the cases are on the north side of the city where everyone went to the bars and parties on St Patty's Day.
We are already in the fourth outbreak. Just have to make it through to Memorial Day when we will have vaccinated 50% or more of the city.
Michigan looks terrible. Prayers for them. Lots of people in Western Michigan are eating inside, not wearing masks etc. Big outbreak there.
“Man are Cubs fans racists or what? Booing the Mayor after all her wonderful leadership. What a bunch of ingrates”
She’s a Sox fan???
And she closed their bars for most of the last year?
They would boo her every time.
“What’s their obesity rates compared to the US? I’ll wait.”
Japan is now in its third wave. New restrictions just put on in Osaka to try and contain it. They can’t afford a massive, countrywide outbreak with the Olympics coming up this summer.
Will they be able to contain it?
We’ll see.
But this third/fourth outbreak is global now.
I guess everyone is obese everywhere.
“Well if you’re including a fertilizer company as a food company, it probably qualifies”
You don’t get the food without the fertilizer. This is why they are here in Illinois. We have the entire ecosystem for the food industry from farm to table.
It’s also one of the reasons we are off to the races in the cannabis industry as well. We already have the entire agriculture ecosystem in place.
“A *retail* tech company.”
Retail?
It’s used by the restaurant industry. It’s like Open Table.
“While there are some nice companies, they are generally legacy and boring, Ingredion is kinda the exception. If you add them up do you even get to Cargill’s revenue?”
And Cargill, which has been around over 100 years isn’t “legacy and boring”?
Come on JohnnyU.
YOU ARE WRONG AGAIN. Just give it up.
“Tock is a tech company you moron.”
Yes. For restaurants. Started and built in Chicago. By Chicagoans.
Because we are epicenter of food in this country.
Why do you think the James Beard awards are held here? Why do you think we have the largest new product food conventions in the industry?
Move on JohnnyU. Next thing you’ll be saying that Illinois isn’t the King of Soybeans and the Deere isn’t one of the most innovative companies in America.
“So many, if not most, people, leave Chicago entirely, and move on in search of success (and they often find it elsewhere).”
This is true of all Superstar Cities. There’s always big turnover because it’s so competitive.
At least Chicago has the advantage of more affordable housing. Imagine moving to LA after college with your $40,000 in student debt and having to pay those outrageous costs for an apartment AND having the knowledge that you will, literally, never be able to buy a home with those prices? AND you have to buy a car to get around.
Ugh.
So depressing.
“And the housing market, which is already red hot, is going to get even hotter. And good!”
Some sobering news from the CFPB on housing yesterday:
“There is a tidal wave of distressed homeowners who will need help from their mortgage servicers in the coming months. Responsible servicers should be preparing now. There is no time to waste, and no excuse for inaction. No one should be surprised by what is coming,” said CFPB Acting Director Dave Uejio.”
Remember the Chicago Metro area is the #3 market in FHA serious delinquency rates in the country.
Crains reported earlier in the week that commercial property tax collection continue to lag. Guess who gets to pick up that tab if they don’t collect….
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/04022021_forbearances.asp
“Japan is now in its third wave. New restrictions just put on in Osaka to try and contain it.”
Their 7 day case average is 2,500 with a population of 125 million. Illinois is 1/10 of the size and is reporting more cases.
Please define “wave”
“They can’t afford a massive, countrywide outbreak with the Olympics coming up this summer.”
The Olympics are a financial boondoggle for the host country/city. It’s also a dumb message to present to the world that people from 100+ countries are getting on planes and traveling to one location when public health officials of the countries participating in the Olympics are telling their own citizens don’t travel after vaccination.
“I guess everyone is obese everywhere.”
Obesity rates determine negative outcomes from Covid infection i.e. hospitalization and death. Japan’s rolling 7 day death count is 18 out of again 125 million people whose median population age is a full decade older than the U.S. Yet Illinois 1/10 the population as Japan alone has 20 – 25 or more deaths a day.
Feel free to keep being a partisan.
“It’s also one of the reasons we are off to the races in the cannabis industry as well. We already have the entire agriculture ecosystem in place.”
Also helps when the entire cannabis industry is controlled by government and you set-up shop in the most politically corrupt city and state in the country.
Did you see the Crains and Tribune article this week. There’s already federal probes about pay-to-play in an industry that just started in this state less than a decade ago.
As they say “the Chicago Way”
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/marijuanacannabis/pay-play-probe-headlines-come-lousy-time-big-weed-chicago
“No ambitious 22 year old is sitting in some second tier city “working from home” if they can come to Chicago and work for Google”
There simply aren’t enough people in your “22 year olds working for Google” cohort in Chicago to counter all the people who decide to move to Indiana to save money on taxes.
“There simply aren’t enough people in your “22 year olds working for Google” cohort in Chicago to counter all the people who decide to move to Indiana to save money on taxes.”
Yet somehow all of the 10,000 apartment built in the last decade are still being rented. And the $600,000 condos are still being sold all over the north side. And Hyde Park and Kenwood’s housing market remains on fire with little inventory.
I guess all of those people aren’t the ones moving to Indiana to save on taxes.
As I said, Chicago is a Superstar City. The superstars who can make it here, stay here. Others who cannot get off the treadmill. And, yes, they move. No different than LA, SF, NY or DC. High turnover. It’s not for everyone. Hard to compete.
But the great job markets in all those cities is what keeps people coming back for more.
If you’re a school teacher, a doctor, a paramedic, a vet, etc you can do those jobs in Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan. Great!
But if you’re a director of social media, you go where there are dozens of jobs open. And that’s Chicago.
If you work in marketing for a food company, you go to Chicago.
If you work in cannabis, you go to Chicago.
If you work in the law, you go to Chicago.
If you’re in finance, you go to Chicago.
If you want to work in tech, with lots of job options, you go to Chicago.
Work in publishing? You go to Chicago.
Museums or non-profits? You go to Chicago.
But yes, those at the end, who have retired, or who are in a profession that can be done anywhere, can live wherever they want.
And networking will still matter. 20-somethings WANT to be back at the office and hanging out with colleagues. It’s how they socialize.
“Also helps when the entire cannabis industry is controlled by government and you set-up shop in the most politically corrupt city and state in the country.”
No, actually. According to Crain’s the infrastructure was in Chicago, not Denver or LA, for the businesses to actually set up shop here. And then you also had the agriculture talent, to understand how to grow it en mass.
Chicago has the VC money. 3 of the 10 largest cannabis companies are in Illinois.
Every business needs seed money.
Chicago is, apparently, the Silicon Valley of cannabis. ha ha
All you have to do is look at the COVID chart for Japan WP. Cases rising sharply. Variants are in there now. Declared a state of emergency 2 weeks ago as their doctors can see what is coming (like ours).
They are already in the outbreak.
Probably too late to contain it as the British variant is too contagious. Ugh. Prayers for the Japanese right now.
So, again, I guess they are all obese so that’s the reason they are in the 4th outbreak?
They have less than 1% vaccinated. Ugh.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/03/31/national/fourth-wave-coronavirus-japan/
On Wednesday, Osaka Prefecture reported 599 cases of COVID-19, the highest one-day figure since Jan. 23.
Of the country’s 47 prefectures, 34 saw a significant jump in new cases between March 21 and 28 compared with previous weeks, most notably in Miyagi, Aichi, Hyogo, Okinawa, Osaka and Yamagata prefectures, as well as in Tokyo.
“We have entered a fourth wave,” Osaka Gov. Hirofumi Yoshimura said Monday, outlining his plans to submit a formal request to the central government to designate Osaka an area in need of stricter virus measures in accordance with a legal amendment passed in February. That would give him the ability to impose monetary fines on businesses that fail to comply with repeated requests to close early and a subsequent order to do so.
“Remember the Chicago Metro area is the #3 market in FHA serious delinquency rates in the country.”
Great! Record low inventory. The housing market is DESPERATE for more inventory.
Too bad most of it won’t be coming this year. A real drag.
Any foreclosures won’t take place for YEARS in Illinois, and by then, probably not at all as this crisis is ending. Economy will be booming. Any home owner in “trouble” will just sell and move.
And, once again, WP has to be “hate, hate, hate, hate, hate.” Chicago is “doomed, doomed, doomed.”
I don’t get it. I don’t understand the bears.
The country is going to see 10% GDP this quarter and 6% to 8% for the year. The consumer is at their best debt levels and strength in decades. Home owners are the best capitalized in 15 years.
The consumer was not in distress going into this pandemic. They are not in distress coming out of it, thanks to government backstops like expanded unemployment, stimulus and forbearance.
Job market is hot with rising wages. Record low mortgage rates.
Chicago housing market entering into multi-year bull market. Finally.
“Every business needs seed money.”
When your entire industry was deemed “illegal” since the founding of the State until a few years ago you better raise some seed money to spend on consultants who previously were legislators or have close ties to legislators i.e. Mike McClain.
Then you better start donating to the consultants preferred politico buddies PAC or campaign.
Then you start greasing the palms of the members of the committee that was formed by the politician whose right hand man (Mike McClain) you are paying for consultant work.
Magically your industry is deemed legal, you are able to raise more money and you now have political clout and an army of whose who political consultants.
Now that you have hired that army you get to tell them to kill any bills that are filed that could present any competition while you build up a sizeable market share and repeat the process at the Federal Level.
“And, once again, WP has to be “hate, hate, hate, hate, hate.” Chicago is “doomed, doomed, doomed.””
I never said that. I just said it’s not hot hot hot. You know there is something between hot, hot, hot and doom, doom, doom
“The country is going to see 10% GDP this quarter and 6% to 8% for the year.”
After decreasing 2.3% the previous year and the Government spending $5+ Trillion Yeah I hope GDP would improve.
Also, given inflation is currently happening you need to parse out the differences between GDP and Real GDP. Phili Fed says only 3.1% Real GDP for Q1 and 4.5% for the FY.
Your 10% GDP fallacy consists of lots of inflation being passed on to the end-customer.
“The consumer was not in distress going into this pandemic. They are not in distress coming out of it, thanks to government backstops like expanded unemployment, stimulus and forbearance.”
Go read FED surveys pre-Covid 40% of the Country couldn’t come up with $400 if an emergency situation without relying on other people or going into debt.
Government backstops also end unless you are advocating for endless UBI.
“Home owners are the best capitalized in 15 years.”
35% of the country doesn’t own homes. How well capitalized are they? Oh wait you are only concerned about MD’s at Banks, Partners at a Law Firm, and Tech Bros in Fulton Market.
“Job market is hot with rising wages.”
Wages dropped month-over-month but yes are up YoY. Why? Less low wage jobs in March 2021 compared to March 2020 since the service economy employs millions less today than they did a year ago.
Why did it drop from last month? Less restrictions means some service jobs came back in March that weren’t there in February putting downward pressure on wage increases.
Keep staying in the upper-middle class brunch liberal big city bubble.
“Declared a state of emergency 2 weeks ago as their doctors can see what is coming (like ours).”
Australia declared a level 4 emergency confining everyone to their homes unless they had to go the grocery store last August over 4 new cases. No one died the entire month.
So again depending on where you live “emergency” looks very different from country to country or state to state in the US.
“On Wednesday, Osaka Prefecture reported 599 cases of COVID-19, the highest one-day figure since Jan. 23.”
Same population as Chicago. Pretty much the same caseload. Don’t really feel that we are in an “emergency”. Remember “15 days to flatten the curve”. Curve looks flattened.
“Prayers for the Japanese right now.”
I think you prayed for Texas as well if I recall. Lowest case count since last June and lowest hospitalization since September reported this week.
“They have less than 1% vaccinated. Ugh.”
Is Biden suspending or modifying IP & Patent technology for the Covid-19 vaccine? That might help.
Also, Japan didn’t approve the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine until mid-February and medical professionals there are saying the governments cautions approach to approving the vaccines will cost lives.
Here’s why:
“The government says it has been deliberately cautious. After a series of vaccine scandals stretching back 50 years, Japan has one of the lowest rates of vaccine confidence in the world — so winning over a skeptical public is crucial.”
“fewer than 30% of people in Japan strongly agreed vaccines were safe, important and effective — compared to 50% in the US.”
Who knew Japan was full of right wing anti-vax Qanon Trump supporters…. snark
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/26/asia/japan-covid-vaccination-program-intl-hnk-dst/index.html
“So, again, I guess they are all obese so that’s the reason they are in the 4th outbreak?”
Age and Obesity are the key factors in how you will handle a covid infection.
But again you and your ilk continue to politicize everything by gaslighting and virtue signaling from the ivory tower of upper class white liberals throwing crumbs to the peasants to prevent them from rioting while having a Black square in your window and simultaneously opposing low-income housing in your neighborhood.
politicize everything by gaslighting and virtue signaling from the ivory tower of upper class white liberals
Mad libs for for owning the libs.
“Mad libs for for owning the libs”
Mad libs for owning the neolibs i.e. globalist corporatist sympathizers that govern solely to benefit of the top 5% and make everything worse for the 95%.
I imagine Sabrina is a big Joe Berrios fan and detests Fritz Kaegi. She won’t admit it as her and her ilk can still go to the property tax appeals board with their property tax attorney from their favorite law firm that has Burke’s or Madigans name to get around paying their fair share while slapping the less fortunate with higher property tax bills.
Then they can hobnob at a dinner party fundraising for the less fortunate and make campaign issues on low-income housing while practicing NIMBY’ism when new development for lower and middle class people is proposed in her neighborhood as the her property value may not keep up with the Banker or Law Firm Partner living in Gold Coast.
Those are the liberals that I detest.
Europe’s obesity rate have been skyrocketing, could that be why they have had such serious and severe outbreaks of covid deaths?
“The Chicago housing market is red hot. Nothing on the market and what is is already under contract. Some neighborhoods literally have no single family homes for sale, at all, under $1 million.”
This is a really complicated concept for bulls to understand so it will be repeated: there currently is no real estate market when the government has blocked evictions and foreclosures. It’s an effective floor under asset prices with no ceiling, so of course prices are going up. Nobody is suffering the consequences for non-payment right now and hasn’t been for over a year.
“Chicago is about to boom like we haven’t seen in well over a decade. Hooray!“
Chicago will “boom” far less on a percentage basis than cities like Dallas, Austin, Nashville, Seattle, Phoenix, Tampa, etc. Save your money and avoid Chicago real estate. Instead buy in a place where the schools are open and don’t suck, where you don’t have to worry about gun violence and carjackings, where the weather is nicer, where taxes are low for property and income. Chicago prices will go up, but at a slower rate than most of the country due to inept politics.
“As I said, Chicago is a Superstar City. The superstars who can make it here, stay here. Others who cannot get off the treadmill. And, yes, they move. No different than LA, SF, NY or DC. High turnover. It’s not for everyone. Hard to compete.”
It’s not really a “Superstar City” and that you think it’s some sort of competition to survive here or “cannot”. It’s that Chicago is competing with other midwestern cities that offer far better bang/buck than Chicago and Illinois.
You don’t build wealth being ie: a VP of Big Pharma in Chicagoland, but you do in Indianapolis where the wages are comparable and the expenses are a fraction of the cost.
There are not thousands of directors of social media, Google analysts and cannabis entrepreneurs. That is some mighty fine cherry picking of examples.
People voluntarily leave Chicago because this metro region cannot effectively compete with others around it. Smaller midwest cities don’t have a large welfare caste who keep voting in the same party year after year leading to completely dysfunctional government services combined with sky high tax rates.
Biden’s bailout will delay the day of reckoning in places like Chicago, states like Illinois, New Jersey & New York but it won’t stop it. You have property taxes that have increased at multiples of overall inflation in all of these places for the past several decades and this trend cannot go on forever. NY and NJ have already used their final bullet in that they already have a steeply progressive state income tax and politicians here in Illinois will do any & everything to use this last opportunity to keep the status going for as long as possible–it won’t work.
“ I’ve been blogging for 14 years. Why would I only NOW need to get “close” to the one who shall not be named?
LMFAO.”
Dunno, maybe to get out of your garden apartment?
But the ads started relatively recently
“ You don’t get the food without the fertilizer. This is why they are here in Illinois. We have the entire ecosystem for the food industry from farm to table.
It’s also one of the reasons we are off to the races in the cannabis industry as well. We already have the entire agriculture ecosystem in place.l
You’ve rendered the entire discussion meaningless. Congrats. I guess everything is food based. You eat food in your house, ergo housing is a food buisness, etc
And now we’ve moved to Cannabis?
If you had any brains or common sense you would stick to the original topic and not make up arguments to support your incorrect claims
JFC
“ And Cargill, which has been around over 100 years isn’t “legacy and boring”?
Come on JohnnyU.
YOU ARE WRONG AGAIN. Just give it up.”
So you list a bunch of legacy companies that added up probably don’t equal Cargills revenue and now it’s a bad thing? How can Cargill survive not being in Chicago, LOL
Legacy can be boring if the subject company doesn’t try and innovate – see Cargill’s investment in Puris
Oh where is Puris HQ’d?
Amazing someone outside of Chicago could develop something more than eating rocks
“ Yes. For restaurants. Started and built in Chicago. By Chicagoans.
Because we are epicenter of food in this country.
Why do you think the James Beard awards are held here? Why do you think we have the largest new product food conventions in the industry?
Move on JohnnyU. Next thing you’ll be saying that Illinois isn’t the King of Soybeans and the Deere isn’t one of the most innovative companies in America.”
If you would have stated that Chicago is one of the 3 best food cities in the US, I would totally agree and say it is #2 IMO. But anyone with an above 60IQ, knows that’s not what we were talking about at least until you started moving goal posts to try and make a point and rendered the conversation beyond retarded. And again they arent food companies and you didn’t consider them food companies until you were schooled and started talking out your ass
Now we’re onto soybeans that aren’t grown in the Chicago metro?
Deere is in Moline, at least say Cat (even though they sold Challenger) which is GQ’d in Deerfield you dope
“At least Chicago has the advantage of more affordable housing.”
This, along with good schools in some suburbs, constitutes most of what the Chicago region has to offer for most middle and upper middle class households. And the good schools, even for households without school aged children, is what keeps their home more valuable than homes not in a school district.
But also supporting those home prices are, retired teachers living Glenview, who earn more not working. I also know a retired glenview teacher who retired 15 years ago, and with the 3% COLA, has monthly pension checks far LARGER, after inflation, than he ever earned actually working. And the kicker – that pension money is state tax free!
This kind of stuff is driving people out of Illinois because they don’t want to pay for it any longer. This stuff is certainly part of the equation for the 30 year old fleeing Chicago to a small city to seek success, love and family. it’s no secret Illinois is badly misgoverned, and they don’t want to pay for it.
My former drivers ed teacher, who also was a football coach and baseball coach, retired at 57. His wife was a teacher and did the same thing. Together, their pensions are over 275k total annually, and go up 3% a year. Even better, they retired down in Florida and don’t spend a penny here. This state ships an obscene amount of money each month to pensioners in sunbelt states.
Helmethofer,
“COVID is no more deadly than any other flu”
That is demonstrably false. The flu – except for the Spanish Flu – never killed 550,000 people.
“Look at all the GZ women who voted for Joe Biden, an obviously senile individual for the shallow reason of “tone” of DJT.”
No. Because Biden didn’t threaten our democracy and ignore 550,000 deaths.
“But sure go ahead and force our children to take a vaccine that is still in the trial phase… for something that isn’t going to kill them (18-29 year olds are 40x-60x more likely to die of something other than covid) ”
But it’s not about saving kids from death. It’s about preventing the virus from enjoying hosts while it mutates into something far more deadly.
“that fear is completely fucking stupid as people without symptoms are not the main vector of spread (in fact its insanely rare like 1/1000 type rare as studies have shown)”
Not true, nor would you expect it to be true based on common sense. https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210110/59-percent-of-covid-cases-stem-from-asymptomatic-spread
“Because in the US, states with the strongest measures seem to have the worst covid-19 case numbers/death rates, while cases with the weakest measures, by some metrics, fared slightly better. Europe, which repeatedly completely locks down and open back up up again, seems to have fared worst of all in the world, while many African and Asian countries (other than China) took very limited measures, and they’re doing just fine.”
You do realize that this is a multi-variate problem, right? Variants, obesity rates, mask usage, population age, other health conditions, climate, housing, just to name a few.
“My former drivers ed teacher, who also was a football coach and baseball coach, retired at 57. His wife was a teacher and did the same thing. Together, their pensions are over 275k total annually, and go up 3% a year. Even better, they retired down in Florida and don’t spend a penny here. This state ships an obscene amount of money each month to pensioners in sunbelt states.”
They are laughing all the way to the bank. And although there have been attempts to reduce future pension benefits via the tier system, whenever a union contract comes up for re-negotiation they want to get rid of the lower tiers and give everyone a better/top tier.
Illinois pensions will never get “fixed” so long as those who aren’t subject to the most generous grandfathered keep agitating to get access to those benefits themselves in contract negotiations and politicians continually cave to them.
https://www.civicfed.org/iifs/blog/proposed-tier-2-pension-changes-raise-questions-about-long-term-costs
“But the ads started relatively recently”
What are you even talking about?
This is the same website as in 2007. Lol. Including the “ads.”
Google Ads have changed 180 degrees since 2007, however. It used to be some bloggers could make a living just off those ads. That ended years ago. Many blogs actually shut as, even with sponsored posts, there was no way to make enough money off the site to do it as a full time job.
You might as well just go for it on Instagram now. Even micro-influencers can make more money there. If that’s what you’re trying to do.
“You don’t build wealth being ie: a VP of Big Pharma in Chicagoland, but you do in Indianapolis where the wages are comparable and the expenses are a fraction of the cost.”
What???
You get stock options Bob. The VPs at Abbott Labs are doing very, very well. Millionaires, all of them. As are the VPs at McDonald’s. CME Group, CBOE, Allstate, ADM, Boeing, United, GrubHub etc etc.
They mostly all get stock options as awards and with the stock market at record highs, it really ups their compensation. It’s not about the salary.
As I’ve stated before, heck, I know just regular employees at these places and they are getting $5,000 to $10,000 a year in bonus stock options. You stay 5 years and have a record stock market, and some of my friends have paid for their kids college with it.
There’s a LOT of corporate money in Chicago, in general. It really matters having all the corporate HQs here.
“Chicago will “boom” far less on a percentage basis than cities like Dallas, Austin, Nashville, Seattle, Phoenix, Tampa, etc.”
Sometimes it’s better to only see a 10% gain in housing prices per year, MikeHG, than 37% like Boise saw in January of this year.
Overheating can really suck. I’m glad for my kids that they have opportunities in a city where there is all types of housing, and it’s still affordable.
Steady gains are more stabilizing.
But I’ll take it. It’s time for Chicago’s housing market to see some appreciation again.
“This is a really complicated concept for bulls to understand so it will be repeated: there currently is no real estate market when the government has blocked evictions and foreclosures.”
None of those are going to come on the market, Bob, for years, if they ever do.
Sorry bears. You’re on the wrong side of the argument. But you will keep saying things suck, when they don’t, for another 6 months, I’m sure.
Meanwhile, we have entered into a multi-year bull market. Downtown is the only neighborhood where there are genuine deals still. How long will those last?
“think you prayed for Texas as well if I recall. Lowest case count since last June and lowest hospitalization since September reported this week.”
Prayers for us all now. 4th outbreak is picking up steam. Michigan, Massachusetts and New Jersey have out of control outbreaks. Numbers starting to go up in Florida. The variants are nasty down there.
I wouldn’t be surprised if indoor dining was restricted again in Chicago by the end of the week.
“I never said that. I just said it’s not hot hot hot.”
It’s red hot.
“NZ is still mostly white.”
It’s at 70% HH. Get into this century dude. You’re still living in 1900.
“ What are you even talking about?”
That I’m getting ads now
Good luck (even with my help) monetizing the site
“ You get stock options Bob. The VPs at Abbott Labs are doing very, very well. Millionaires, all of them.”
The EVP’s, yes. The middle managers w/ a VP title, not close.
But a good food company from Chicago you missed.
“ As I’ve stated before, heck, I know just regular employees at these places and they are getting $5,000 to $10,000 a year in bonus stock options. You stay 5 years and have a record stock market, and some of my friends have paid for their kids college with it.”
$5k or $10k is not close to $1MM
Keep making up shit
“Sometimes it’s better to only see a 10% gain in housing prices per year, MikeHG, than 37% like Boise saw in January of this year.
Overheating can really suck. I’m glad for my kids that they have opportunities in a city where there is all types of housing, and it’s still affordable.
Steady gains are more stabilizing.
But I’ll take it. It’s time for Chicago’s housing market to see some appreciation again.“
I’m sure most homeowners in Chicago would much rather have the price appreciation Boise, Nashville, Seattle, Austin, etc compared to Chicago since the year 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, etc.
Most Chicagoans are missing 100-200k in price appreciation compared to cities where the economy is doing well. Instead it goes to fund 100k plus teacher’s pensions for 30 years till their or their spouses death. Even worse, that money is spent in the sunbelt states. Too bad they’ll be falling even further behind over the next decade as Chicago’s price appreciation lags behind 18 or so of the 20 cities in the S&P case Schiller. Maybe we will beat Cleveland or NYC between 2020 and 2030 if we’re lucky.
According to https://realestatedecoded.com/case-shiller/ The only two cities we are beating over the last 21 years are Cleveland and Detroit. Everyone else has done far better for real estate. But yea, we’re a super city. One where the property taxes and assessment are greater than your condo mortgage.
“ You get stock options Bob. The VPs at Abbott Labs are doing very, very well. Millionaires, all of them.”
The EVP’s, yes. The middle managers w/ a VP title, not close.”
Yeah I doubt all VPs there are millionaires as I used to work with dept heads (with PhDs) at other competitors that earned a lot but also had lake houses, kids college, etc. Even at SVP level not everyone is a millionaire just due to spending but by EVP level yes but there aren’t many of those.
Doesn’t matter–that pharma job in Indianapolis pays about the same as that pharma job here in Chicago believe it or not, and Indianapolis is quite a bit cheaper than here. The guy I used to work with that is a pharma exec there quite sure is doing much better than Chicagoland pharma execs.
“Not true, nor would you expect it to be true based on common sense. https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210110/59-percent-of-covid-cases-stem-from-asymptomatic-spread”
Gary, that is a model, and like all models they are BULLSHIT. Viruses need to replicate to a certain point to get in your system to spread at that point people are exhibiting moderate to severe symptoms. Its literally the first fucking chapter of an immunology book. Covid is not any different from the other hundreds of seasonal coronaviruses. But go ahead and believe the bullshit if you want, no skin off my back.
“Prayers for us all now. 4th outbreak is picking up steam. Michigan, Massachusetts and New Jersey have out of control outbreaks. Numbers starting to go up in Florida. The variants are nasty down there.”
You realize the cases are occurring in the younger populations not the older populations which means very low possibility of hospitalization and death as the older people are the ones currently vaccinated.
Even Mr. gloom and doom Dr. Fauci isn’t calling it a 4th “outbreak” or “surge” but keep on going with that.
https://www.wxyz.com/news/coronavirus/younger-age-groups-fueling-massive-spike-in-covid-19-cases-in-michigan
“I wouldn’t be surprised if indoor dining was restricted again in Chicago by the end of the week.”
You could always just turn the dial down instead of shutting everything again or look at who is driving the case counts and who has been vaccinated and stay were we are (like they are doing in Michigan).
I don’t get why people are surprised when things open, you increase capacity indoors, and cases start increasing. These expert politicians in Chicago and Springfield know how Covid works right? Pick a lane.
“$5k or $10k is not close to $1MM
Keep making up shit”
It must be the 300% dividend that these companies pay that employees reinvest…..
Math is hard for Sabrina.
“I’m sure most homeowners in Chicago would much rather have the price appreciation Boise, Nashville, Seattle, Austin, etc compared to Chicago since the year 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, etc.”
price appreciation + lower property taxes and water bills. Also, not drinking lead helps.
“lower … water bills”
??? Water is *super* cheap in Chicago. If you have a meter, and aren’t watering a golf course.
If you don’t have a meter, THANK YOU!! for subsidizing my very low water bill.
“Viruses need to replicate to a certain point to get in your system to spread at that point people are exhibiting moderate to severe symptoms. Its literally the first fucking chapter of an immunology book.”
Does not appear to be correct:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK10779/
“??? Water is *super* cheap in Chicago. If you have a meter, and aren’t watering a golf course.”
Water is cheap but the bills throw in a bunch of stuff that has nothing to do with water i.e. pensions. The 2016 tax hikes included increases to water bills. By 2022 Chicagoans will pay $228 more per year than in 2016.
Also, look at the delinquency rates. Lightfoot had to discontinue water shut-offs since they were so high.
Also Lightfoot discontinued the meters after the meters caused more lead in water samples.
“Lightfoot stopped the meter program last month after additional city testing showed spikes of brain-damaging lead in more than 1 in 5 metered homes sampled.”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-lori-lightfoot-lead-water-meters-20190709-7nasmq577jcmhjyiczo3eryxbi-story.html
“??? Water is *super* cheap in Chicago. If you have a meter, and aren’t watering a golf course.”
Also, there was the 2011 tax hikes which increased water rates 50%+ and before that tax hikes under Daley increasing water rates as well. Throw on top of that the 2016 tax increases not so affordable.
Chicago Reader has a great article on how the city actually uses water fees to balance the city budget each year and it’s impact.
“In 2007 the City Council, at Daley’s urging, approved a hike of about 45 percent in water and sewer rates over three years. As a result, one north-side household—we’ll call them the Joravskys—saw their water and sewer bill leap from $328 in 2007 to $502 this year.”
“On top of these increases Emanuel wants to phase in another 70 percent hike over the next four years. All told, by 2015, residents will be paying nearly two-and-a-half times the water and sewer fees they were paying in 2007. In years after that, Emanuel would implement additional hikes tied to the rate of inflation.
In short, by 2017, the “Joravskys” can expect to pay—gulp—as much as $1,000 a year for water and sewer.”
Sounds “affordable” and “cheap”.
https://www.chicagoreader.com/chicago/rahm-emanuel-and-the-water-and-sewer-budget/Content?oid=4966741&showFullText=true
“$1,000 a year for water and sewer.”
WTF?
Looking at actual bills, for an actual house (ie, mine), for the past 12 months, water+sewer+taxes totaled $320. In 2020. That is after 3 *more* years of those “not so affordable” increases.
If the “Joravskys” are too dumb to have gotten a meter, sure. Without a meter, my bill would (I believe) have been something close to $2,000 for the year.
**Which is why I wrote, and you quoted, “If you have a meter”.**
And the water bill is much lower than many other places. It’s *asinine* to pick on the Chicago water bill, just because it went from “subsidized by deferred maintenance” to “high enough to pay for the deferred maintenance”.
“And the water bill is much lower than many other places.”
Which places?
“Over the past decade, the cost of water in Chicago has tripled – the fastest rate of increase among six Great Lakes cities examined by WBEZ and American Public Media in a joint investigation of rising water costs in the region.”
Not the Great Lakes.
“The cost of water for an average family of four in Chicago was about $178 in 2007 and it increased to about $576 in 2018. By contrast, that same average family living in Phoenix, called the nation’s least-sustainable city by New York University sociologist Andrew Ross, paid about $399.”
Not the southwest.
Per the article median monthly bill was $80 in 2007 now it’s $287 as of 2018.
https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicagos-water-prices-are-skyrocketing-faster-than-other-great-lakes-cities/69951240-ea15-40c7-a649-5b6787e35b6b
“??? Water is *super* cheap in Chicago. If you have a meter, and aren’t watering a golf course”
I have a meter and rain barrels connected to each downspout, but my dang water bill is still ‘too dang high’
I do spend $2,100 each year at the garden center for our flowers and veggie garden plants. I guess it would cost a lot to water those.
This year I am going to experiment with a low water turf grass on the side of the garage. If it does well then will try it in the front in 2022.
“Looking at actual bills, for an actual house (ie, mine), for the past 12 months, water+sewer+taxes totaled $320.”
HOW? Even before the ‘rona, our non-growing season water bill (W+S+T) was $100 every 2 months.
No faucet drips in the house, oxygenitics style shower heads, and 3 years ago got rid of the basement toilet from the 60’s that was like a 10 gallon flush each time.
Chicagoans pay $8.16/1k gallons for water+sewer. https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/fin/supp_info/utility-billing/water-and-sewer-rates.html
Here in Elmhurst, we pay $18.12/1k gallons for City of Chicago water and local sewer.
Chicagoans paid $4.67/1k gallons for water+sewer in 2011.
Even nearly doubling over the last decade, Chicagoans pay some of the lowest rates in the Chicago region.
http://apps.chicagotribune.com/water_rates/
“Per the article median monthly bill was $80 in 2007 now it’s $287 as of 2018.”
No, that’s nowhere in the article. An no homeowner got a monthly bill in 2007 nor in 2018. Pre-meter, the standard was twice a year, now it is every two months.
What *IS* in the article is this:
“The cost of water for an average family of four in Chicago was about $178 in 2007 and it increased to about $576 in 2018.”
That also doesn’t make sense, unless that is looking at at least bi-annual bills–the $178 is, indeed, about what my bill was in ’07 (and the flat rate bills were based on lot size and exterior hose bib count, so we would have been pretty ‘average’), and $576, in 2018, would be double what my water + sewer + tax bill actually was. And, the sentence that they wrote implies that is the annual amount.
BTW, $287 for water, only, in 2018, would have been 72,800 gallons per month. 2,426 gallons a day–about the same as leaving a shower running 24/7.
“HOW? Even before the ‘rona, our non-growing season water bill (W+S+T) was $100 every 2 months.”
We water a few containers, only, so our growing season bill ain’t high, either. At worst one extra 1,000 CF. Typically 27-30k cf for the year.
Have had a single bi-monthly bill over $100, including garbage tax, and that was two months of a leaky toilet. I ask: how so *you* use so much??
“An no homeowner got a monthly bill in 2007 nor in 2018. Pre-meter, the standard was twice a year, now it is every two months.”
Apologies, semi-annual bill not monthly.
“BTW, $287 for water, only, in 2018, would have been 72,800 gallons per month. 2,426 gallons a day–about the same as leaving a shower running 24/7.”
There are other fees on the bill that have nothing to due with water consumption i.e. flat monthly garbage fee (which has been increased) and water/sewer tax to pay for pensions.
You should also review how inefficient Chicago’s water infrastructure is. 25 billion gallons of water were lost due to leaky pipes in 2017. Homeowners and businesses pay for that. Maywood residents alone lost 38% of the water it paid for costing its residents $1.2 million
“I ask: how so *you* use so much??”
I answer:
Norwood Park sized lot. Longer than standard chicago size 125ft from 150to 200ft, and usually 45 to 75ft wide compared to the standard 25ft.
The wife’s exterior flower obsession that does not include perennial. And my obsession of striping my lawn. The veggie garden grows like crack with minimal water oddly.
Dry august will shoot the bi-monthly bill to $300 and over.
The flowers get watered daily (twice a day when dry august), grass twice a week, veggie garden is solely from the rain barrels anything left is for the hanging flower planters.
“flat monthly garbage fee (which has been increased)”
I think you are being scammed if you are paying more than $9.50/month. It’s been $9.50/month since it was introduced.
So, no, wrong again.
“I answer:”
Ok, so that’s ~8 months. How you get to $100 (before $19 for garbage) in the cold months?? Or even over $80, deducting the garbage?
“How you get to $100 (before $19 for garbage) in the cold months?? Or even over $80, deducting the garbage?”
Good question, I have no clue?
Now that $100 is all inclusive, you know the double the water to get the sewer thing.
Great now I am going the spend this week messing around the house trying to find out why our winter water use is high.
Well to ponder, the ‘rona caused us to run the dishware daily and do many dishes by hand. I have OD myself on vitamin D and Zinc so i constantly need to whizz. Trying to exercise the ‘rona 19lbs off so I shower twice a day sometimes. The kid is taking longer showers.
What is everyone else’s city water bill? I am seriously curious if my meter is rigged.
See if you can get your meter checked- our water bill one cycle was triple or so the normal – it took a lot of wrangling, but the City finally admitted it was an error (can’t remember if it was a billing error or a meter reading error – I think they may have also replaced our meter).
“What is everyone else’s city water bill? I am seriously curious if my meter is rigged”
Could be the case. CBS had an investigative series last December documenting residential overcharges one of them for metered water.
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/12/04/getting-hosed-the-city-makes-massive-errors-on-water-bills-for-metered-accounts/
The market remains red hot.
According to Crain’s, March saw a record number of properties go under contract in the Chicagoland area.
Most of those contracts will close so home sales in the Chicagoland area will be big in April and May.
If there was more inventory, there would be even more sales.
Wow.
There is NOTHING on the market in the neighborhoods. And things that are, are already under contract. I wonder how many have bidding wars?
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/tight-housing-market-getting-even-tighter
“It’s been like a frenzy, and it’s exhausting,” says Andrea Leu, an @properties agent in Elmhurst. She’s had six properties go under contract in recent weeks, which she says is more than usual, though she declines to give specifics.
“You realize the cases are occurring in the younger populations not the older populations which means very low possibility of hospitalization and death as the older people are the ones currently vaccinated.”
Hospitalizations are rising. It’s younger people who, hopefully, won’t die.
In some states, over 40% of those hospitalized are under 40.
In Chicago cases are rising dramatically in 20s, 30s, 50s, and then 40s age groups, in that order. Most of the elderly have been vaccinated, thankfully.
Oh- and the variants are nastier. Vancouver Canucks have been felled by the Brazilian variant. Hitting them hard. And they are professional athletes.
Stay safe out there. Stay home.
“But yea, we’re a super city.”
Yes, we are.
In no other city are they building 70 story high rise buildings like they’re candy, except New York. And they’re not even doing it there right now.
You can hate on Chicago all you want. But it has one of the largest regional economies in the country and actually ranks high on most Superstar City metrics worldwide.
You forget about little things like having 2 of the top universities in the country and what that brings to the region.
“The EVP’s, yes. The middle managers w/ a VP title, not close.”
My friends have normal jobs at places like the CME and CBOE. They all get stock options as their bonuses every year. All employees do. Have you seen the stock market recently?
Yeah- their stocks are at all time highs. They started there 10 years ago.
They literally are paying for their kids college education with it. One is a mid-level manager and she gets $10,000 a year. I don’t want to say what company, but, yeah, it’s a publicly traded Chicago company whose shares are up 300% in the last 10 years.
Heck, I can’t think of a single friend who is working at one of the large companies who isn’t getting this.
The upper management gets a lot higher “awards” or bonuses, but even if you get $5,000 a year and you’re there for any length of time, this last decade has been outstanding.
Abbott Labs, by the way, is up 377% over the last decade.
People underestimate how many employees get stock options outside of Silicon Valley. Many companies use them, and stock awards, as compensation. It doesn’t cost them anything.
They give them out all the way down the ranks.
“Good luck (even with my help) monetizing the site”
Um…I’ve never tried to “monetize” the site.
I literally make almost nothing off this site.
As I’ve described, most blogs have shut down or don’t even try to make any money because the amount you get from the ads doesn’t even pay enough to maintain the site.
The only other thing to do is to accept sponsorships. Many blogs still couldn’t make enough money off of that to do it full time either.
That’s why starting an Instagram account is more lucrative.
No one should start a blog to make money off of it anymore. It should be used as content marketing for something else- a newsletter or other product.
“2 of the top universities in the country”
3 if you include Notre Dame.
“Gary, that is a model, and like all models they are BULLSHIT.”
So tell the algorithmic traders and the people in charge of airline seat prices and all the economists and the weather forecasters that they are wrong and they shouldn’t be making money.
“Viruses need to replicate to a certain point to get in your system to spread at that point people are exhibiting moderate to severe symptoms.”
So you believe there is no asymptomatic transmission. Show me your source on that. The experts say there is but maybe you know something they don’t.
“3 if you include Notre Dame.”
Um…Notre Dame isn’t in Chicago. Or Illinois.
But I would be remiss to leave out IIT, which is crazy popular right now and has gotten big donations from some wealthy alums, or University of Illinois at Chicago.
The great universities are a real game changer, due to the amount of research they do, compared to many other cities.
“Lightfoot stopped the meter program last month after additional city testing showed spikes of brain-damaging lead in more than 1 in 5 metered homes sampled.”
The meter program/conversion is a scam I’m glad this is suspended. Everyone posts the marketing crap that you save money with a meter vs unmetered but my experience & anecdotal observations have been quite different.
Where I live now I think it used to not be on metered water, but the owner & management company changed over the years and it’s metered and the new owner is now constantly doing “water audits” to try to find out why they are getting exorbitant bills from the city.
What is a “water audit” you ask? Basically they do a walk through of your apartment to ensure the faucets aren’t being run constantly is all I can surmise.
Things you don’t do as a small landlord of a 4-flat in Chicago:
1) make the fifth unit (“live in landlord unit”) official, requiring you to now pay for trash collection for the building.
2) switch to metered water from un-metered if you were lucky enough to get grandfathered into un-metered water.
There are a lot of new/ignorant landlords here in the city that don’t seem to understand how landlording works in Chicago & how the city will screw you if you aren’t careful.
“Oh- and the variants are nastier. Vancouver Canucks have been felled by the Brazilian variant. Hitting them hard. And they are professional athletes.”
“hitting them hard” i.e. dehydrated and in need of an IV per ESPN. Wow. sounds rough.
Thank you FG, WP, Anon(ufo) for the water meter thingy. Gonna see where this upcoming bill lands, and call up the city to give them an earful to come out and check their shyte. Previous house was un metered, but oddly the yearly costs are the same as this metered place.
“It’s been like a frenzy, and it’s exhausting,” says Andrea Leu, an @properties agent in Elmhurst. She’s had six properties go under contract in recent weeks, which she says is more than usual, though she declines to give specifics.”
Wow real estate agent says market is hot but won’t provide proof. No conflict of interest. What a source. Must too exhausted from closing deals to provide specifics.
I feel so bad for this real estate agent who is just so “exhausted” from making so much money. Tough life.
“The meter program/conversion is a scam I’m glad this is suspended. Everyone posts the marketing crap that you save money with a meter vs unmetered but my experience & anecdotal observations have been quite different.”
My bill has been *consistently* 80-85% lower for 10 years now. It’s still–after all the increases and the taxes–less for the year than my last unmetered bill was for 6 months.
Not a scam.
“According to Crain’s, March saw a record number of properties go under contract in the Chicagoland area.”
Let’s see if it holds. I wonder if alot of people rushed to close as their rate locks were going to expire and higher rates were coming.
February was pretty brutal weather wise so not a surprise a bump happened in March.
“There is NOTHING on the market in the neighborhoods.”
If there was nothing on the market how does one have record sales?
“Um…Notre Dame isn’t in Chicago. Or Illinois.”
K.
https://mendoza.nd.edu/visit-notre-dame/visit-chicago/notre-dame-in-chicago-clp/
My family of 5, including 3 kids under 5, a dog, a cat, a stay at home mom, and me working from home, uses 6 or 7k gallons every other month. We’re not doing anything extraordinary to limit our usage.
People always talk about water bills in terms of cost, but people need to be thinking about water usage. If your bill is high, its because you are using a lot of water! Those things directly correlate!
“I think you are being scammed if you are paying more than $9.50/month. It’s been $9.50/month since it was introduced.”
Large commercial and residential buildings have to higher private companies for garbage collection in the city but still pay the $9.50 city fee since it’s charged through the water bill.
So depends on what type of building you live in.
“Large commercial and residential buildings have to higher private companies for garbage collection in the city but still pay the $9.50 city fee since it’s charged through the water bill.”
I’m still pissed that the rebate was phased out for residential buildings more than 4 units. But there are bigger fish to fry…
“Large commercial and residential buildings have to higher private companies for garbage collection in the city but still pay the $9.50 city fee since it’s charged through the water bill.”
You wrote:
“flat monthly garbage fee (which has been increased)”
Which is still an incorrect statement. Spreading the flat fee to more payers is not increasing the flat monthly fee.
Do you share Sabrina’s consition?
“Vancouver Canucks have been felled by the Brazilian variant (OF THE CHINA VIRUS).” There, I fixed the sentence. The Brazilian variant of the China Virus.
The southwest should pay for water. It’s the desert for goodness sakes.
Chicago water should be cheap. Water falls in so many forms, all year round, that I have three pumps and a snowblower to push it away from my property.
The rub is that Chicago charges its suburban customers MORE than its own citizens. They call it pipeline modernization and upgrades but we know it’s all just price gouging communities have have no infrastructure to drill wells and treat aquifer water which are depleting every year (even as the lake water levels are high).
Not all suburbs buy from Chicago. Evanston has it’s own cribintake and sells, IIRC, Skokie, Niles and possibly Morton Grove. So do some of the other lake shore communities.
“Um…Notre Dame isn’t in Chicago. Or Illinois.”
K.
https://mendoza.nd.edu/visit-notre-dame/visit-chicago/notre-dame-in-chicago-clp/https://mendoza.nd.edu/visit-notre-dame/visit-chicago/notre-dame-in-chicago-clp/
Really Fred? Are you JohnnyU now?
They have a few classrooms for an executive MBA program but THIS is going to make Chicago a world class university over, say, IIT or Loyola Chicago?
Laughable.
Notre Dame is NOT in Chicago. Or Illinois.
Another sign of the sizzle.
Another property over $10 million just closed.
This time, a new construction house in Lincoln Park. Closed at $12.5 million, the highest single family home sale in the entire Chicago area since 2015. Some condos have sold for more, however.
I thought everyone was moving to Florida?
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/lincoln-park-mansion-sells-125-million
“Not all suburbs buy from Chicago. Evanston has it’s own cribintake and sells, IIRC, Skokie, Niles and possibly Morton Grove. So do some of the other lake shore communities.”
Very true, I know* that when Evanston started selling their water in the 60’s (if I have my history right), Arlington Heights was one of their customers, since they didn’t want to buy from Chicago.
*Or so I’ve been told by someone with quite a bit of knowledge about AH.
“This time, a new construction house in Lincoln Park. Closed at $12.5 million, the highest single family home sale in the entire Chicago area since 2015. Some condos have sold for more, however.
I thought everyone was moving to Florida?
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/lincoln-park-mansion-sells-125-million”
Wow another N=1.
Please provide a link that states “Everyone is moving to Florida”
Its kind of funny how you’ll take N=1 as absolute proof of something you agree with, yet ignore larger data sets that refute your claims.
“Really Fred? Are you JohnnyU now?
They have a few classrooms for an executive MBA program but THIS is going to make Chicago a world class university over, say, IIT or Loyola Chicago?
Laughable.
Notre Dame is NOT in Chicago. Or Illinois.”
I preface this by stating I f’in hate ND
You have to be a special kinda idiot not to accept that the Golden Domers have a huge network, especially in Chicago. They have a zeal that matches your level of stupidity when it comes to hiring one of their own.
Loyola and IIT and nice universities, but nowhere near the cache that ND has
“Please provide a link that states “Everyone is moving to Florida”
Number 9 (Miami) and 10 (Tampa) per Crains.
Top 10 destinations for moves out of Chicago:
1. Phoenix
2. Dallas-Fort Worth
3. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.
4. Denver
5. New York
6. Houston
7. Nashville, Tenn.
8. Atlanta
9. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.
10. Tampa, Fla.
The $12 million dollar house really represents the health of the Chicago housing market….. Must be a law firm partner, MD at a Bank/PE Firm, or the Google Engineer that didn’t get “stuck” at the $120K salary. Maybe it was the $5 – $10K in annual stock options. Only possibilities according to Sabrina.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/wondering-where-your-neighbors-moved-check-phoenix-or-dallas
What is interesting is that all those cities are Tier 2 except NY and LA. So looks like people are looking for objectively cheaper areas. The demographic data would be interesting. Retirees (Phoenix) vs likely job relocation.
“Number 9 (Miami) and 10 (Tampa) per Crains.”
I’m not arguing that people arent leaving , only Sabrinas incessant stupid argument that anyone that says anything even remotely critical about Chicago is saying that it will be tumbleweeds by year end.
The extremes from N=1 is a proxy for the market to “You’re either for Chicago or against America” make her very, very droll
Shit I know 2 recent graduates that were born and bred in Chicago that are headed to Austin and Nashville. Didn’t give Chicago a second thought
“anyone that says anything even remotely critical about Chicago is saying that it will be tumbleweeds by year end”
But we’ve got the 5G in all the condo buildings!
Anyone who is leaving is just afraid of the 5G, JU!!
“What is interesting is that all those cities are Tier 2 except NY and LA. So looks like people are looking for objectively cheaper areas.”
I wouldn’t consider Miami, Denver or Nashville cheap – These metros are at or closing in on par w/ Chicago.
These Tier 2 cities dont have to stay Tier 2 forever, Just like Chicago doesnt have to stay a Tier 1B
“But we’ve got the 5G in all the condo buildings!”
And HBO+ all for $25/mo
“Anyone who is leaving is just afraid of the 5G, JU!!”
I think these condo’s are going to have to throw in Disney+ to stay competitive. Millennials & Z love their MCU
Then they’ll be ready to get chipped
Those figures only really matter if the movers aren’t replaced. People move all the time. Interestingly, it sounds like census data is starting to come out in dribs and drabs now. It’s sounding like downtown and the south loop (and parts of Bronzeville, though clouded since it was included w/ south loop in congressional map iirc – too lazy to go find the article now) grew up to 10 or 12% in population while Englewood and a few other places lost population.
“Golden Domers have a huge network, especially in Chicago.”
A majority of Notre Dame students come from IL and a huge number of them end up in Chicago upon graduation. Even if ND isn’t physically in IL, claiming that ND grads aren’t the same draw to companies that NW and UC grads are is just plain wrong. Ain’t no company coming to Chicago to scoop up those top tier UIC students.
“I wouldn’t consider Miami, Denver or Nashville cheap – These metros are at or closing in on par w/ Chicago.”
Yep. The pricing on the Front Range in CO started going nuts around 2013-14 and hasn’t let up. I had been watching it from Chicago for a few years before then. One observation though, is that while there are of course outliers, I think incomes are still lagging in many of the popular midsize metros, so a lot of people leaving places like Chicago are paying roughly the same for housing but having to do so on lower incomes (perhaps the past year of WFH will enable more high earners from T1 cities to relocate and keep their incomes). But insofar as “how much a month” drives peoples’ buying decisions (but not necessarily loan approval standards), the lower taxes certainly help.
“So looks like people are looking for objectively cheaper areas.”
And perhaps some other factors besides cost?
“The demographic data would be interesting. Retirees (Phoenix) vs likely job relocation.”
Phoenix is no doubt popular for retirement, but I think there’s actually been a lot of economic growth there too, with more expected. Anecdotally, I will say that I know of at least a few lawyers from Chicago in their 50s/60s who now split their time between Phoenix and Chicago, with a plan of eventually transitioning to the southwest fulltime in the near future.
“Not a scam.”
I’ve seen lots of anecdotal data points of people getting outrageous water bills from the city. Not like one or two people at least three or so the past decade. Bills of such magnitude it would be impossible for a household to consume that much water but in this city you are guilty until you can prove your innocence when it comes to municipal billing and services.
“Ain’t no company coming to Chicago to scoop up those top tier UIC students.”
Um…that’s not one of the criteria of Superstar Cities.
The reason Chicago ranks so high is because of the RESEARCH that the big research universities bring. Northwestern, for instance, has a huge biotech division, of which we have discussed on this blog that the university was opening up a research facility in Streeterville that will employ several thousand scientists.
Northwestern and University of Chicago also have world class hospitals attached to those same universities. Companies end up coming from these universities. These universities also bring in world class talent from other cities/countries.
Notre Dame does none of those things because it is not located in Chicago.
“What is interesting is that all those cities are Tier 2 except NY and LA. So looks like people are looking for objectively cheaper areas.”
Yep. Because they’re retiring. They don’t care about having a job. Only care about lower cost. Not surprised Phoenix and the Florida cities are high up on the list. That’s been the destination for most Illinois retirees for 30 years now.
The data from this survey is from one of the largest moving van companies in the country. They move families. With big houses. Whose employer will pay for their move.
Sonies, did you use United or Atlas to move to Reno?
I’ve used them several times to move cross country.
Those 20-somethings who leave Chicago to move to Austin or Nashville, aren’t using United or Atlas. They are either driving themselves in the rental van, or they’ve sold everything and ship their clothes.
It’s expensive to use a real moving van company.
“The demographic data would be interesting. Retirees (Phoenix) vs likely job relocation.”
Definintely would be interesting. It’s retireess or people with nice corporate jobs who are paying them for the move. Hence, all the big job centers are well represented including LA and Houston.
Look where they’re coming inbound from. New York was the #1.
They’re moving to Chicago for big time corporate jobs.
“Number 9 (Miami) and 10 (Tampa) per Crains.”
This is the expensive moving van data. Sure, when I retire to Florida, I’m hiring United to move me there. 100%.
I’ve used United several times. They rock. They’ll come in and pack everything. You do NOTHING.
It’s a dream.
“The $12 million dollar house really represents the health of the Chicago housing market…..”
I never said it represented the “health” of anything except that the rich are NOT fleeing Chicago or the suburbs. Quite the contrary.
2020 saw a hot luxury market and 2021 has started out even hotter.
In addition to two homes selling for over $10 million already this year, the Vista continues to quietly close on million dollar condos nearly every day.
They have, what, 400 of them, so a long way to go, but even to see 50+ of them closing right now is impressive. There is PLENTY of million dollar condos downtown. They have overbuilt.
But Chicago’s luxury market, overall, is quite hot. Just like the rest of the housing market.
When the stock market is at record highs, the rich buy. And Chicago is still a creative, entrepreneurial city in which highly competitive people want to live and work in.
Sorry you don’t get it WP. And sorry your doom and gloom predictions just aren’t going to come true.
By the way, let’s show the other list.
Where are people leaving to come to Chicago?
It’s also interesting (but, again, these are the big corporate job transfer people):
Top 10 cities for moves to Chicago:
1. New York
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.
3. Houston
4. Washington, D.C.
5. Dallas/Fort Worth
6. Denver
7. Seattle
8. Detroit
9. Atlanta
10. Philadelphia
“Loyola and IIT and nice universities, but nowhere near the cache that ND has”
To be a Superstar City, you have to have big research schools. It’s one of the things Chicago ranks high on worldwide, actually.
IIT is pretty huge for engineering. I never said it has the “cache” of ND. It does not. But Notre Dame isn’t in Chicago. It doesn’t have thousands of research jobs here.
The others DO.
“ IIT is pretty huge for engineering”
Compared to what?
IIT is a step below UofI, Purdue, Michigan, etc
“Look where they’re coming inbound from. New York was the #1.”
So using your “logic”, these folks couldnt hack it in the big apple and are being pushed out of town into a less competitive market
Makes sense
“the Vista continues to quietly close”
What’s that? No place named “Vista” in Chicago.
The Chicago real estate market is definitely sizzling now. First, keep in mind that March 2020 was not a down month. In fact, it had slightly higher sales than 2019. But this March soared ahead of last year by 38.3%. Yeah, not a typo. And contract activity was sizzling also. Lots of pending sales too. https://www.chicagonow.com/getting-real/2021/04/chicago-real-estate-market-was-on-fire-in-march/
“Where are people leaving to come to Chicago?
It’s also interesting (but, again, these are the big corporate job transfer people):
Top 10 cities for moves to Chicago:
1. New York
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.
3. Houston
4. Washington, D.C.
5. Dallas/Fort Worth
6. Denver
7. Seattle
8. Detroit
9. Atlanta
10. Philadelphia”
top 10 most populated cities in the US
New York City, NY (Population: 8,622,357)
Los Angeles, CA (Population: 4,085,014)
Chicago, IL (Population: 2,670,406)
Houston, TX (Population: 2,378,146)
Phoenix, AZ (Population: 1,743,469)
Philadelphia, PA (Population: 1,590,402)
San Antonio, TX (Population: 1,579,504)
San Diego, CA (Population: 1,469,490)
Dallas, TX (Population: 1,400,337)
San Jose, CA (Population: 1,036,242)
“top 10 most populated cities in the US”
And relisted by Metro area, which the list is certainly based on:
1. New York City
2. Los Angeles
3. Dallas-Fort Worth
4. Houston
5. Washington, DC
6. Miami
7. Philadelphia
8. Atlanta
9. Phoenix
10. Boston
What’s notable:
Absence of Miami and Boston, but that’s likely bc SoBe folks don’t move anywhere cold other than NYC, and Massholes aren’t aware there is anything west of Buffalo.
Presence of Denver (#19) and, esp, Seattle (#15). Denver makes some sense, due to relative proximity (ain’t much between here and there).
Bouncing off that MSA list, it appears reasonably likely that the 2020 census will show the Chicago Combined Statistical Area dropping from #3 to #5, behind Washington-Baltimore and the Bay Area, albeit likely just slightly behind, and still well ahead of Boston at #6.
“Yep. Because they’re retiring. They don’t care about having a job. Only care about lower cost. Not surprised Phoenix and the Florida cities are high up on the list. That’s been the destination for most Illinois retirees for 30 years now.
The data from this survey is from one of the largest moving van companies in the country. They move families. With big houses. Whose employer will pay for their move”
So is it geriatrics downsizing to retirement homes that don’t care about jobs or families with big houses who presumably aren’t retired and need to work thus care about jobs?
“Notre Dame does none of those things because it is not located in Chicago.”
Yet their student body is 60%+ white (same as Illinois) compared to 50% at Northwestern and 40% at UofC.
So the wealthy suburban or Lincoln Park Family whose son/daughter didn’t quite make it in to UofC or Northwestern or wanted the “collegiate experience” or “football experience” since they played for 4 years at Mt. Carmel, Loyola, St. Rita, Brother Rice, etc. powerhouse private high school program didn’t say gee I’ll go to Notre Dame to pay for local Chicago connections and my new friends will be the children of other wealthy, white, connected families from the Chicago area?
These wealthy families may not have founded the huge Law or Private Equity Firm like the UofC or Northwestern grad did but their mom/dad or their new friends mom/dad are Partners of that Firm.
Also, where is part of the Mendoza College of Business located at? 224 S. Michigan Ave.
Yep, not located or associated with Chicago in anyway.
Here’s a fire-damaged house 2 miles from the United Center that sold for $33k in December:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/126-N-Karlov-Ave-Chicago-IL-60624/2093193294_zpid/
Nicely rehabbed it’s now for sale at $339 k
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/Undisclosed-address-60624/home/13262764
How much did the rehab probably cost?
“It doesn’t have thousands of research jobs here.”
Google size of endowment fund:
Notre Dame – $11.5 Billion
Northwestern – $11.1 Billion
UofC – $8.6 Billion
UIC: $2.3 Billion
Loyola – $710 million
Google: R&D Spending by US Colleges:
Notre Dame: $213 Million
Northwestern: $752 Million
UofC: $433 Million
Loyola: $40 Million
UIC: $372 Million
That $11.5 Billion endowment and $213MM in annual R&D spend only comes from and is deployed in Northwest Indiana, Southwest Michigan, and Indianapolis.
No Chicago jobs help or are created by that.
“IIT is pretty huge for engineering”
“Compared to what?”
#88 in the country whose engineering school enrollment is <1,000 students located in the 3rd largest city in the country…. Absolutely huge.
Also, from the Google machine: 4,708 students applied in the fall of 2017, of which 2,545 were accepted. This places the acceptance rate at about 54%, making IIT moderately competitive. Of the accepted students, 471 ultimately enrolled, making for an 18% yield.
Talk about competition. Looks like it's Plan D or E for an engineering student.
https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-engineering-schools/eng-rankings
“So using your “logic”, these folks couldnt hack it in the big apple and are being pushed out of town into a less competitive market”
Sabrina logic = Promotion at NYC Budge Bracket Law, PE, HF, or Bank means transfer to Chicago. Also, Harvard, NYU and Columbia medical students are choosing Rush and Northwestern over NY Presbyterian or Laggone.
“How much did the rehab probably cost?”
Did they get permits? Assume no, and I’d guess ~$150k, all paid off books.
Was a pretty nice ATM for the prior owner–bought for $18k in ’89, last refi of $118k in Feb-07, f/c filed Nov-08.
Also nice that someone bought it for $25,500 in Feb-18, had a fire, and still managed to sell for more.
Thanks anon.
Only 150k? I’m impressed. It looks nice, though its a rough hood:
https://blockclubchicago.org/2020/10/16/garfield-park-businesses-forced-to-close-as-open-air-drug-market-crime-scares-off-customers-with-no-help-in-sight-owners-say/
Not knowing anything about the rehab biz I presumed it was properly permitted. Are you saying unpermitted rehabs like this are commonplace? (I wouldn’t have thought so.)
That house is located in a super shitty area and selling for almost 340k? Yikes!
“Not knowing anything about the rehab biz I presumed it was properly permitted.”
I didn’t look up the owner or anything, so dunno–just a guess, based on the location, the turnaround time, etc.
So, looked it up–they did get a permit for:
“Interior Repairs to existing 2 story frame single family home, Repair floors, doors, windows, ceilings, stairs and roof repair, no structural changes.”
–no permit for the structural work in the basement, nor electric, plumbing etc. Seemingly not a legal 2-flat (but maybe you can do that w/o telling the building dept–truly dunno).
And the guess on cost was based on 100% of labor being paid in cash, directly by owner/flipper, with no GC fees. May be a little bit low.
“selling for almost 340k?”
1. *Asking*
2. You could get 2 section 8 voucher families in here, and monthly rent would be about $2950. After taxes and insurance, easily over $25k in annual income, which is a 7.5%+ cap, at the ask price. So, not crazy *if* everything was done right, and it’s not a contemporary Rudkus family home.
btw, *this* is basically what affordable housing in Chicago should look like and cost. The insanity of the Skender modular home construction–where “affordable” condo units cost $300k to build, before land, any carrying/overhead costs, and any sales-related costs–is laid bare.
Fred: “…A majority of Notre Dame students come from IL and a huge number of them end up in Chicago upon graduation…”
WP: “…I’ll go to Notre Dame to pay for local Chicago connections and my new friends will be the children of other wealthy, white, connected families from the Chicago area?…”
FWIW some facts re ND class of ’22: 2/3 come from outside of Midwest; more from NYC than any other major city; 1/2 of enrollees ranked in top 5 of HS class; 1/4 of US born enrollees are students of color.
https://wsbt.com/news/local/notre-dae-is-now-the-most-national-university-in-the-country
FWIW some facts re ND class of ’22: 2/3 come from outside of Midwest; more from NYC than any other major city; 1/2 of enrollees ranked in top 5 of HS class; 1/4 of US born enrollees are students of color.
“Central Midwest (MI,OH, IN, WV) – 19%
Midwest – 15%”
When the hell did “Central Midwest” become a thing?
This is some Sabrina level data manipulation
I still would like to see how many applicants/admissions are from Illinois, have to be careful not to piss off the Alumni
“FWIW some facts re ND class of ’22: 2/3 come from outside of Midwest; more from NYC than any other major city; 1/2 of enrollees ranked in top 5 of HS class; 1/4 of US born enrollees are students of color.”
I admit that my statement was not exactly accurate. IL is the number one draw state, but it does not represent a majority of students.
https://news.nd.edu/news/class-of-2022-intellectually-and-globally-diverse-dedicated-to-service-and-leadership/
“2/3 come from outside of Midwest”
“Central Midwest (MI,OH, IN, WV) – 19% Midwest – 15%”
Math still checks out, even with WV for some reason included.
“New York ranks first among cities/regions with 237 students, followed by Chicago with 209”
But: “By state, Illinois accounts for the most incoming students (216), followed by California (159), Indiana (151), New York (145) and New Jersey (116).”
So “New York” encompasses parts of NY, NY and CT, and possibly Pike County PA.
23% (!!) legacy.
“FWIW some facts re ND class of ’22: 2/3 come from outside of Midwest; more from NYC than any other major city; 1/2 of enrollees ranked in top 5 of HS class; 1/4 of US born enrollees are students of color.”
Do 1/3 of Northwestern or UofC students come from the Midwest? UofC website shows 22% of applicants from the Midwest for class of 24. I imagine it’s similar for Northwestern.
Also, are white Irish Catholics ranked in the top 5 of their high school class more likely to pick Notre Dame, Northwestern, or UofC when given the choice?
I assume Northwestern and UofC have significantly better international student recruiting statistics then Notre Dame.
“1/4 of US born enrollees are students of color.”
Northwestern and UofC is significantly higher. UofC had 50% and Northwestern 48% non-white applicants for the class of 24. Current enrollment at Northwestern and UofC is 44% and 47% white.
UofI is 41% and UM is 65% white.
25% (+ <5% I assume for international) for a pretty well known university that wants to be the in-between of an Illinois/Michigan (high performing regional universities with well known nationally grad-schools) and UofC/Stanford/Northwestern (internationally renown) academically is not very good.
2018 Freshman enrollment across the United States was 52.4% white given increased diversity trends in younger generations compared to older ones.
“By state, Illinois accounts for the most incoming students (216)….” …….
23% (!!) legacy.”
So 10% of undergrad students are from Illinois and 23% are legacy admits.
Fwiw the legacy ratio sounds consistent: “…among white applicants who were accepted to Harvard, 21.5% had legacy status….”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/23/elite-schools-ivy-league-legacy-admissions-harvard-wealthier-whiter
“Fwiw the legacy ratio sounds consistent: “…among white applicants who were accepted to Harvard, 21.5% had legacy status….””
Hmm, what’s the white %age? Under 50, right? So that sounds like ~12%.
And, yes, would be likely be ~21.5% for everyone, if all alums matched current class diversity, but ND isn’t a shining example of racial integration, either, starting with being 74(!!) years behind Hahvahd on having its first Black undergrad alum.
[btw, loathe harvard, but you Domers are like the Shamwow guy]
Correct, sonies.
Where do people think all the jobs are?
Most people move cross country for jobs. That’s it. It’s not a surprise that New Yorkers and Los Angelenos are moving to Chicago for work. And vice versa.
United and Atlas move upper middle class families around the country for corporations. They have employers who pay $5,000 to $10,000 to move them.
“What’s that? No place named “Vista” in Chicago.”
The St Regis anon(tfo). But I prefer to call it by its original name since that’s what its been called for several years.
“So using your “logic”, these folks couldnt hack it in the big apple and are being pushed out of town into a less competitive market”
We don’t know. They’re coming because Chicago has great jobs. Lots of corporate types moving back and forth.
“The Chicago real estate market is definitely sizzling now. First, keep in mind that March 2020 was not a down month. In fact, it had slightly higher sales than 2019. But this March soared ahead of last year by 38.3%. Yeah, not a typo. And contract activity was sizzling also. Lots of pending sales too.”
Thanks for the update with the link Gary.
Always some good nuggets in there, especially the charts.
I’ve never seen a month that hot in Chicago since I began running the blog so it makes sense that the last time was in 2006 (this blog started in 2007).
The interesting thing is that it is literally hot citywide right now. There’s not a certain neighborhood that seems to be hotter than others. All we know is that downtown is still lagging. Imagine if it wasn’t? Whoa.
But the neighborhoods are on fire.
And as the contract data shows, it should continue into April as well.
What’s surprising is how hot the condo market is. There would be more single family home sales if there was more inventory, though. Imagine what sales would look like if there was something to buy?
Whoa.
But this kind of incredible demand is definitely going to light a fire under prices.
“ But this kind of incredible demand is definitely going to light a fire under prices.”
You been bleating on and on and on… about how HAWT ™ the markets been since June. What is exactly the catalyst for increasing prices?
“We don’t know. They’re coming because Chicago has great jobs. Lots of corporate types moving back and forth”
But you “Know” that people that leave Chicago for other (Non – NYC/SF/LA) cities cant hack it
Interesting take as again your ability to be intellectually consistent is non-existent
“But I prefer to call it by its original name since that’s what its been called for several years.”
Still call it Big Stan, too? US Cellular Field?
Not a soul lived in the building as anything other than the St Regis.
Condos are selling quick now. Even by me, the condos on Lawrence Avenue and California avenue are under contact within a week. Seems to have pivoted a bit from Q4’20 and January and February 2021. Is anyone seeing multiple bids on the $400k – $600k 2/2 or 3/2 condo market in the north and northwest side neighborhoods?
Even co-ops are selling quick! I think it’s pent up demand and low inventory and once things return to “normal” prices will tank, or at least sink and sag back to more palatable levels.
@TomC… yes. Have some clients that have made 4 or 5 offers on a condo in that price range in NW side. Finally got one accepted. Not common in Chicago…
“ND: “1/2 of enrollees ranked in top 5 of HS class; 1/4 of US born enrollees are students of color.”
People have woken up and are now gaming the system. Whiteness is out and non-whiteness is in. So don’t look for accurate statistics coming out of these places. Even with the covid vaccine I put down a different ethnic group than I am supposed to belong to and then they presented another form with that question highlighted and I put down the same thing and had to sign. Dumbass statists think I don’t know the difference between a legal document where it’s perjury and it’s just their dumb document they think me signing my name has any penalty for skewing their statistics. Drop dead statists–they can’t effectively change society when bad data is coming back.
“People have woken up and are now gaming the system.”
The Woke Meritocracy:
“What is new about education’s turn to woke identity politics is not the fact that administrators and faculty are influencing students’ sense of self, but rather the sort of values that the new ideal personality is supposed to uphold. The contemporary ideal, increasingly, is no longer someone so charmingly personable that others forget he is in fact a ruthless competitor, but a person who so convincingly narrates her having overcome some kind of social injustice that others forget she is in fact a beneficiary of systems of privilege.
… our society has chosen, and continues to choose, to educate its children with the apparent aim of making a class of leaders who are disconnected from any real solidarity to others but unable to think for themselves, combining the worst qualities of individualism and conformism.”
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/arts-letters/articles/merit-blake-smith
“there is no chance that 25% of the class is Top 5 and black/Hispanic.”
How did you conclude that they were claiming that?
Meme I can’t read that entire novel but people have been gaming the financial aid system too for years now. Plus how would Illinois lawmakers be able to effectively “close the loophole” when they could just transfer personal assets to an LLC?
Why does the FAFSA process require such detailed financial disclosures from the parents of the applicants? I’m glad a legal immigrant came here and set up that consultancy to help people and I hope she’s rich off it.
“From each according to their ability, to each according to their needs”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-college-financial-aid-guardianship-loophole-and-the-woman-who-thought-it-up-11564595984
@Russ – it seems like this really shifted in the past month so I have not seen any sales trends. Are these places accepting offers over ask?
“I think it’s pent up demand and low inventory and once things return to “normal” prices will tank, or at least sink and sag back to more palatable levels.”
You need inventory for prices to “sink” FG (i.e. see the downtown market, especially in the luxury units.) Otherwise, there’s no way for prices to go down.
The largest generation in US history will be buying homes for the next several years.
Home builders better get building more supply.
“Home builders better get building more supply.”
There is no housing shortage. There’s plenty of supply. It’s just currently in limbo – pre-foreclosure – as millions are behind on their mortgage. Most of them may not be able to ever come current or even afford their modified 40 year mortgage with a balloon payment. The reality is that over the next decade, today’s renters will be swapping places with today’s mortgage defaulters.
Homo Sapien has never had a problem housing people, not even when civilization was building mudbrick huts in Mesopotamia and certainly not when we made each iron nails by hand.
Many of those high rises all over downtown have plenty of vacancies. They’ll find a way to fill them one way or another. probably low income in the near future.
“There is no housing shortage. There’s plenty of supply.”
Nope. Sorry bears. Wrong again.
Prices wouldn’t be moving higher if there was plenty of supply. There isn’t.
You think there are “millions” behind on their mortgage in Chicago? Downtown? On the North Side? In Hyde Park? In Beverly?
Come on homedelete. I would expect more from you.
“Prices wouldn’t be moving higher if there was plenty of supply. There isn’t. ”
The supply is in foreclosure limbo right now.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/24/fha-mortgage-delinquencies-hit-17-5-in-30-metros-over-20-the-other-side-of-the-red-hot-housing-market/
FHA Mortgage Delinquencies Hit 17.5%. In 30 Metros, over 20%: On the Other Side of a Red-Hot Housing Market
by Wolf Richter • Mar 24, 2021
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) which insures nearly 8 million high-risk mortgages, reported that the delinquency rate of its mortgages rose to 17.5% in February, up from 17.0% in January, matching the all-time records of September and November last year, according to the AEI’s Housing Center.
“Low down payments, low closing costs, and easy credit qualifying,” the FHA promises. So FHA mortgages always have high delinquency rates, even during the Good Times, when they were already rising. But during the Pandemic, delinquencies ballooned, and they’re not improving in any way despite the improving economy:
Meanwhile, rents are plummeting in many places. Renters and defaulters are going to swap housing in the next few years.
And with the baby bust, they can cram into the urban condos too and not have to worry about a yard for the kids.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/12/16/covid-19-baby-bust-coronavirus-pandemic-lead-birth-decline/6507974002/
Up to half a million fewer babies in 2021, lasting impact
Urbanski is not alone. In a June report, Levine and Melissa Kearney, an economics professor at the University of Maryland and nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, projected that the nation could see 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births in 2021.
Meanwhile, the Feds are so scared of a foreclosure crisis they have proposed a rule prohibiting the filing of a residential foreclosure until 2022!
https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/cfpb-tries-to-stave-off-covid-19-foreclosure-surge
“The deadline for borrowers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic to request or extend a forbearance plan is June 30, which is also the end of a foreclosure moratorium on federally backed mortgages. As a result, analysts expect a potential surge of delinquencies in the fall. CFPB officials note that many of the borrowers currently in forbearance are more than 120 days late on their payments.
Under the new proposal, a lender or servicer could not immediately foreclose on a home once the forbearance period ends. The set of rule changes would institute a “special pre-foreclosure review period” that would generally block most servicers from initiating foreclosure proceedings until after Dec. 31. Servicers could offer simplified loan modification options to borrowers experiencing pandemic-related hardship.”
There’s literally no supply out there because millions of people are in pre-foreclosure and can’t be foreclosed upon; and millions of people are renting but can’t be evicted! These are all homes that would have otherwise been on the market but for the state and national moratoriums. We live in crazy, crazy times. The real estate market is so distorted right now. Multiple bids for homes within days while the mortgagor next door hasn’t made a payment in 12 months.
I’m usually contra the doom-and-gloom HD, but the situation is a significant problem, continuing to be kicked down the road.
Mainstream media isn’t reporting the FHA delinquencies which will undoubtedly serve as a giant drag on the housing market in the years ahead. Instead it’s all about the “hot! hot! hot!” RE market with no further analysis or speculation as to why it exists.
Could have sworn I posted this yesterday but don’t see it.
You’re not going to find many FHA buyers in the Green Zone so that foreclosure problem will affect a very different segment of the housing market.
“Mainstream media isn’t reporting the FHA delinquencies which will undoubtedly serve as a giant drag on the housing market in the years ahead.”
Freddie and Fannie forbearance are around 2% now. Still high but it has been declining every month for months.
4.4% of all loans in forbearance. Also declining monthly.
That will continue to decline as the economy reopens.
“There’s literally no supply out there because millions of people are in pre-foreclosure and can’t be foreclosed upon; and millions of people are renting but can’t be evicted!”
Yeah- all those owners in the GreenZone are in forbearance.
Sure Jan.
Come on. At least argue something realistic.
BUT- if we do get inventory coming on in non-GreenZone areas due to quick sales, that would be helpful because inventory is near record lows outside of the GreenZone too.
Why does everyone assume these home owners will be in “pre-foreclosure”? Home prices are up. The buyers of the last 10 years have been the best credit buyers in over a generation.
Most will be able to sell and get out of the property. Most probably won’t have to do a short sale because they have equity.
That’s what happens when prices are up double digits in just a few years.
“Meanwhile, rents are plummeting in many places. Renters and defaulters are going to swap housing in the next few years.”
Rents have already bottomed. If you haven’t gotten your rental deal, you’re too late.
“The supply is in foreclosure limbo right now.”
I can’t wait for all those foreclosures in Lakeview and Lincoln Park to come on the market.
It’s gonna be crazy.
(Sarcasm)
It’s red hot out there. Dang.
I was going to crib on this cute 1-bedroom. It went under contract within 4 days. I wonder if it had multiple offers?
If you were looking at this unit, let me know if there was competition.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/725-W-Sheridan-Rd-60613/unit-501/home/12792218
I was going to crib on this one too.
Under contract in 5 days.
1-bedrooms are hot right now. Cheaper than renting. Why not buy?
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/643-W-Roscoe-St-60657/unit-C3/home/26808619
“ That’s what happens when prices are up double digits in just a few years.”
Sure Jan
“ I was going to crib on this cute 1-bedroom. It went under contract within 4 days. I wonder if it had multiple offers?
If you were looking at this unit, let me know if there was competition.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/725-W-Sheridan-Rd-60613/unit-501/home/12792218”
A 6’-6” wide bedroom?
That’s Lux^2
I wonder if they have a limit on number of cats?
Yep. Hot market because you’re probably only fitting a full bed in that bedroom.
Lovely kitchen renovation and staged perfectly with the mid-century modern furniture.
Kudos to the realtor who put together such a perfect presentation of this property and got a quick sale.
I love it.
Staging matters.
As do nice window treatments (which this unit also has.)
I’m only paying around $1600 a month for that Sheridan Road 1-bedroom with just $12,000 down (5.5%) with a 3.3% mortgage rate.
Equivalent to renting.
If you locked in the lower rates, it’s even cheaper.
“ I’m only paying around $1600 a month for that Sheridan Road 1-bedroom with just $12,000 down (5.5%) with a 3.3% mortgage rate.”
Congrats on your new place, you and cats should be very happy
“ Equivalent to renting”
Except it’s not, there’s a 2/1 in the same building for $1550/mo. Not as updated but you do get an extra Br
Oh are you getting free 5G and HBO+?
It also looks like the sellers did all the updates, so the owners lost money on this unit – HAWT ™
Do you enjoy sleeping with a window unit 2” from your head?
https://www.ftportfolios.com/Blogs/EconBlog/2021/4/12/housing-boom-to-continue
from a perma bull, but he hasn’t been wrong, interesting comments on national inventory shortage and such