Market Conditions: Chicago Finally Tops the Case Shiller 20-City Index as Hottest Market
As other major metros come down off their red hot pandemic highs, Chicago, which has lagged for years at the bottom of the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller 20 largest metros index for price appreciation, has finally come in on top.
In May, Chicagoland single family homes rose 4.6% year-over-year, to top the list, followed by Cleveland and the New York metro.
From Corelogic’s Chief Economist Selma Hepp:
Chicago, Cleveland and New York were the three markets with largest annual appreciation, up by 4.6%, 3.9% and 3.5% year over year, respectively. Miami ranked fourth, followed by Charlotte, North Carolina.
During the pandemic, Chicago posted some of the nation’s lowest home price appreciation, and the recent strength there reflects the region’s relative affordability. San Francisco and Seattle both continued to post annual declines, down by a respective 11% and 11.3% in May, but annual decreases in both metros pivoted and showed smaller declines than in the previous month.
Chicago also came in second, after Cleveland, on the monthly gain list.
Cleveland and Chicago posted the nation’s largest monthly gains, at 2.7% and 2.3% respectively, while Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix showed the smallest gains of less than 1%. And while Boston and Cleveland saw outsized increases this May, the gains in slower-growing metros are in line with seasonal increases that are historically recorded between April and May.
Chicago’s diverse housing market, with homes available at all pricing tiers, low, medium and luxury, also worked to its advantage.
While Chicago led with the largest increase across price tiers, New York’s high tier posted the biggest increase in prices across metros and tiers, up by 2.8% from April.
From Crain’s:
Because Cleveland ranks second on the list with price growth of 3.9%, Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, deemed this month’s report “the Revenge of the Rust Belt.” It doesn’t quite hold up, as megacity New York follows Cleveland with 3.5% growth, and after that is Miami at 3.4%.
Here’s a list of the gains since the pandemic began in March 2020.
Biggest winning metro areas:
- Tampa up 63.8%
- Miami up 63.12%
- Charlotte up 54.25%
- Phoenix up 54.23%
- San Diego up 52.12%
- Dallas up 50.8%
- Atlanta up 49.5%
Worst performing metro areas:
- San Francisco up 27.6%
- Minneapolis up 29.49%
- Washington DC up 29.93%
- Portland, OR up 32.74%
- Chicago up 33.54%
- Detroit up 37.12%
- Las Vegas up 37.19%
It surprised me to see Las Vegas was up “only” 37.19% but prices are down 0.35% year-to-date and off 9.13% from the peak. Chicago hasn’t declined (yet) so it’s at its peak pricing since the pandemic started. Chicago prices up 5.73% year-to-date.
This is May data. Will Chicago keep it’s crown through this summer?