Market Conditions: Downtown Apartment Rents Near 2007 High
Crain’s recently reported on downtown Class A apartment rents, which were up again in the first quarter of 2011 and are nearing 2007 peak pricing.
“We’re going to see good rent increases for the next two years, and then, when the next wave of supply hits, it will taper back,” says Ron DeVries, vice-president of Appraisal Research Counselors, a Chicago-based consulting firm that tracks the downtown housing market.
Net effective rents at top-tier downtown apartment buildings rose to $2.29 a square foot in the first quarter, up 2.7% from the fourth quarter and 6.0% from a year earlier, according to Appraisal Research. Mr. DeVries predicts that net effective rents, which include concessions such as free rent, will rise 7% at Class A buildings this year.
The Class A occupancy rate, meanwhile, rose to 93.9% in the first quarter, up from 93.6% in both the fourth quarter and a year earlier. While the occupancy rate remains well below its pre-recession peak of 97.5% in 2006, effective rents are nearing their 2007 high of $2.35 a square foot.
Demand for downtown apartments is red hot because no one wants to buy condos.
“There’s still no pressure to act,” Mr. DeVries says. “When people feel prices are going up, they feel the need to buy something so they don’t miss out.”
Demand for apartments typically depends on the job market, which remains weak. But the unemployment rate for people in their mid- to late 20s — a key demographic for downtown landlords — is much lower than that for the population as a whole, one reason the market is so strong, Mr. DeVries says.
In one key indicator of demand, downtown Chicago now has 5,226 more renters than it did in first-quarter 2008, a 35% increase, according to Appraisal Research.
There are several new high rises that are already under construction, including the first new rental building in Old Town that I can even remember (maybe in like 30 years) and a few more proposed. Developers can’t build apartment buildings fast enough.
“It’s amazing that spigot turned on that fast,” Mr. Stern says. “So we do have some concern over the new construction.”
But Mr. DeVries doubts that downtown landlords will face a glut a couple years from now. Appraisal Research projects that developers will complete about 2,200 units in 2013.
“I think the (rent) increases will slow down,” he says, “but I don’t think we’ll be in an oversupply situation.”
Will there be a glut of apartments in a few years or will they simply be converted into condos, once the condo market bottoms and starts to recover?
Downtown apartment rents approach 2007 high [Crain’s Chicago Business, Alby Gallun, May 16, 2011]











