Market Conditions From Redfin: Midwest Cities Cooling the Least As Rates Hit 6%+
Redfin recently put out data indicating which housing markets are cooling the most, and the least.
Seattle, as you might imagine, is one of those cooling the most now that rates have hit 7%. Seattle’s median price is high and many buyers are now priced out.
But in Chicago, and the Midwest, in general, housing is more affordable. That means, in these metro areas, home prices aren’t cooling as much.
Chicago, and two suburban areas, made the top ten list of those holding up better.
From Redfin:
Lake County, IL–located about 45 miles north of Chicago–is holding up better than any other metro in this analysis. It’s followed by Albany, NY and Chicago. Rounding out the top 10 are New Haven, CT, Milwaukee, New Brunswick, NJ, Elgin, IL, Bridgeport, CT, Pittsburgh and El Paso, TX.
That’s according to a Redfin analysis that ranks the 100 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas based on how quickly or slowly they’re cooling, according to changes in numerous metrics from February 2022 to August 2022. Those metrics are prices, price drops, supply, pending sales, sale-to-list ratio and speed of home sales. The housing markets holding up best are those that are cooling slowest.
It helps that the Midwest has a bunch of affordable housing. Many cities don’t have homes for sale under $300,000 anymore.
The lower the home price, the lower the dollar impact on monthly mortgage payments. With today’s 6% mortgage rates, the typical monthly payment on a $310,000 home–Chicago’s median sale price–is $2,000. That’s up from about $1,600 with the 3% rates common at the beginning of the year–a sizable increase, but smaller than the $1,100 monthly-payment uptick on the typical home in Seattle, where the housing market is cooling quicker than any other U.S. metro.
Interestingly, even with higher mortgage rates, demand hasn’t dropped as much in the Chicago metro area but it has ground to a halt in other cities. There are still some buyers looking.
Is it our affordability?
Is it a strong job market?
Crain’s recently had an article about the sale of the house in Hyde Park that was owned by Bill and Melinda Gates. It went under contract in just 9 days and sold for more than they paid for it when their son started college at the University (he has now graduated so they sold.)
Inventory is still low in many neighborhoods and for certain types of housing, such as single family homes.
Here are some current inventory levels. These are homes on the market and NOT under contract/pending per Redfin.
- Lakeview: 407
- Wicker Park: 84
- Logan Square: 120
- Lincoln Park: 346
- Hyde Park: 96
We’ve chattered about how inventory is much higher in downtown neighborhoods, especially the Gold Coast.
But even with rates at 7%, inventory is not surging. Many properties are selling quickly because there isn’t enough on the market and some buyers ARE looking.
The South Loop was the epicenter of the housing bubble in Chicago, with thousands of new condos built. The national press called the South Loop the hottest neighborhood in the country during that time as condo tower after condo tower went up.
In September 2022, there are just 380 properties on the market.
Chicago didn’t see the huge price appreciation and boom like cities in Florida, Texas, Nevada and the Carolinas saw during the pandemic.
Will this be a blessing in disguise with 7% mortgage rates?
Affordable Midwest and East Coast Markets are Holding Up Best as the US Housing Market Cools [Redfin News, by Dana Anderson and Sheharyar Bokhari, September 27, 2022]