Market Conditions: Housing Sales Slump Continued in January, Falling 41.2% YOY
We can say one thing about January 2023 sales: at least they weren’t as bad as January 2009. They managed to stay above 1,000 in Chicago.
From the Illinois Association of Realtors:
The city of Chicago saw a 41.2 percent year-over-year home sales decrease in January 2023 with 1,076 sales, down from 1,831 in January 2022. The median price of a home in the city of Chicago in January 2023 was $297,500, down 4.0 percent compared to January 2022 when it was $310,000.
Sales Data Since 2006 (thanks to G for the older data):
- January 2006: 2009 sales and median price of $258,000
- January 2007: 1850 sales and median price of $279,900
- January 2008: 1203 sales and median price of $290,000
- January 2009: 918 sales and median price of $205,000
- January 2010: 1237 sales and median price of $195,000
- January 2011: 1034 sales and median price of $150,000
- January 2012: 1123 sales and median price of $149,000
- January 2013: 1521 sales and median price of $157,000
- January 2014: 1383 sales and median price of $200,750
- January 2015: 1348 sales and median price of $220,000
- January 2016: 1398 sales and median price of $227,750
- January 2017: 1574 sales and median price of $255,000
- January 2018: 1444 sales and median price of $265,000
- January 2019: 1347 sales and median price of $255,000
- January 2020: 1462 sales and median price of $267,500
- January 2021: 1698 sales and median price of $310,000
- January 2022: 1831 sales and median price of $310,000
- January 2023: 1076 sales and median price of $297,500
“The housing market is currently experiencing its usual winter slowdown,” said Dr. Daniel McMillen, head of the Stuart Handler Department of Real Estate (SHDRE) at the University of Illinois at Chicago College of Business Administration. “Median prices are similar to their levels at this time last year in both the Chicago area and the rest of Illinois. Our forecasts indicate that prices and sales will increase over the next three months throughout the state.”
Statewide time on the market was up 2 days to 41 days from 39 days last year. But inventory fell again, losing 7.6% to 19,204 from 20,793 properties, as home sellers stayed on the sidelines and didn’t list.
In Chicago, time on the market also rose 2 days, or 4.3%, to 49 days from 47 days last year. Inventory also fell again, declining 12.7% to 5310 from 6084.
Fears about a rush of inventory coming on the market have clearly been misplaced. Inventory remains near all-time lows.
In Chicago’s 1076 sales, both condos and single family homes saw similar weakness. Single Family Home sales declined 39.9% year-over-year to 459 while condos fell 42.2% to 617.
“Following the New Year, January is a common time for sellers to prepare their homes for the spring market by buttoning up their properties for sale,” said Sarah Ware, president of the Chicago Association of REALTORS® and principal and designated managing broker for Ware Realty Group in Chicago. “Buyers, aware of their greater negotiating power, have their eyes on the spring market with the hope of increased inventory.”
The 30 year fixed came down from December, to an average of 6.27% from 6.36%. But this is still up sharply from January 2022 when it was just 3.45%.
Last winter’s market was still red hot. We won’t see more attractive year-over-year comparisons until the spring and summer because the Fed didn’t start raising rates until March of 2022.
Will Chicago sales remain frozen as we head into the spring season?
Illinois home sales and median prices dropped in January [Illinois Association of Realtor, Press Release, by Bill Kozar, February 21, 2023]
Where’s the all important MuH DemOGrApHIcS analysis???
Barring a major economic improvement, it makes zero sense for HO with 3% mortgages to be selling, therefore inventory is going to be low for existing homes
Until we see some type of equilibrium with HMAM most potential sellers are on the sidelines
The boomers leaving Chicago likely have enough cash to buy in Fl/Tx/Az/etc without needing to firesale their GC property.
2/2 Shitbox owners better enjoy their decision, they aint getting out from under it unscathed for 5-7 years.
I think it’s time to move on from the seasonality narrative in residential real estate. Sure, there’s something to it, especially in some markets (at some price points, the money people want/need to spend at the holidays means they need to wait a bit to recover before trying to buy something; people have busy weekends from Thanksgiving through the Super Bowl; in some places, it’s very difficult to view things at certain times of year, etc.), but it really seems this is an antiquated narrative and just another thing for brokers to hold onto to demonstrate expertise, show value, etc. Obviously interest rates trump any season-related factor, then the overall economy, then the stock market (especially at the higher end and for second homes).
“I think it’s time to move on from the seasonality narrative in residential real estate.”
There has been seasonality in the housing market for the last 100 years until the pandemic, wherein it did disappear. But by last summer, the home builders were reporting the “return” of seasonality again and the housing market has acted seasonally ever since.
Why WOULD it disappear with one of the driving forces being kids and getting them into the schools at a certain time period? Also, it’s human nature to not go look at homes in the winter or at other times with “bad” weather. The reason it slows in the summer time is because everyone goes on vacation and doesn’t want to look at houses. During the pandemic, these patterns were blown up because you COULDN’T go on a vacation in the summer time and/or we were all staycationing and so home became very important. It took priority in 2020 and 2021.
I do think the spring season “beginning” after the Super Bowl is probably antiquated now. Prior to the pandemic, sellers started listing even earlier, right after New Year’s, so, perhaps, the spring season is now beginning earlier.
“The boomers leaving Chicago likely have enough cash to buy in Fl/Tx/Az/etc without needing to firesale their GC property.”
Not on your life. You’re selling your Jefferson Park bungalow and moving to Tampa and you think you “have enough cash”?
Nope. People going to have to make different decisions. I really think Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are going to see a lot of retirees. Already, Louisiana is one of the most popular states for retirees but more will have to go there due to being priced out of Florida.
“2/2 Shitbox owners better enjoy their decision, they aint getting out from under it unscathed for 5-7 years.”
Why does anyone think you should be buying real estate without expecting to live there at minimum of 5 years? There are HUGE costs involved in ownership and transaction costs. This isn’t just 2/2 condos. It’s townhomes, houses etc.
Plenty of people live in 2/2 condos 5 to 10 years these days. Millennials marrying later and having kids later. Many aren’t even having kids. Why would you need to move?
“Why WOULD it disappear with one of the driving forces being kids and getting them into the schools at a certain time period? Also, it’s human nature to not go look at homes in the winter or at other times with “bad” weather.”
Meh. Below are my moves by month since graduating/starting a career as a married person:
May (rent) (moved states; no kids yet)
Nov (buy) (moved south in ELP so didn’t really impact the one kid’s pre-school)
Nov (rent) (moved out of state; I went a month ahead of family)
Dec (sold) (our buyer was a single guy well under 30; pulled one kid out of Latin pre-k after a semester; started both kids in a new state/school in Jan)
May (buy) (about 5 miles away from rental, but stayed in same (private) school)
March (rent) (in another city; kids commuted 40 minutes each way for 7 weeks to finish school year)
March (sold) (our buyer was a single guy around 30)
July (buy) (a few blocks from rental, no impact on (public/attendance area) schools)
Other than my and my wife’s May graduation at the top of the list, time of year has had zero impact. We moved, and bought, when we wanted to (for space, way of life, etc.), needed to (for work), or were able to (waited to find a seller without a broker to be able to afford entry-level home in desired neighborhood), sometimes at considerable inconvenience re: school. And I don’t think the seasons had any impact on our two buyers. With the exception of our current home, I think it was cold and/or snowy during the general timeframes of all of our purchases and sales.
“Not on your life. You’re selling your Jefferson Park bungalow and moving to Tampa and you think you “have enough cash”?”
1 – I noted GC
2- Where are the fire sales if Jeff Park?
3 – How many properties in the last 5 years have you cribbed about in Jeff Park?
“Nope. People going to have to make different decisions. I really think Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are going to see a lot of retirees. Already, Louisiana is one of the most popular states for retirees but more will have to go there due to being priced out of Florida.”
If you say so…
“Why does anyone think you should be buying real estate without expecting to live there at minimum of 5 years? There are HUGE costs involved in ownership and transaction costs. This isn’t just 2/2 condos. It’s townhomes, houses etc.
Plenty of people live in 2/2 condos 5 to 10 years these days. Millennials marrying later and having kids later. Many aren’t even having kids. Why would you need to move?”
What % 2/2’s are lived in > 5 years? Based upon the properties you post its def not a majority (at least yet)
This is a complete change from the buy and move up mindset still prevalent even today
“What % 2/2’s are lived in > 5 years? Based upon the properties you post its def not a majority (at least yet)”
That feels like a self-selecting cohort. We wouldn’t see as many of the longer holds, bc they are being held longer.
“That feels like a self-selecting cohort. We wouldn’t see as many of the longer holds, bc they are being held longer.”
Could be, but I dont believe that its the majority. You would have to believe that the only the units available are the ones consistently turning over at shorter intervals and the units are self selecting for short term owners
I wonder if supply chain constraints for furniture, fixtures, and construction materials are impacting the market as well. It takes a good 5 months to receive a piece of furniture these days. Can’t imagine what it would be like to set up a whole house from scratch or do any kind of renovations.
“This is a complete change from the buy and move up mindset still prevalent even today”
No, it’s not. The “buy and move up” thing hasn’t been in in Chicago in a long, long time. Millennials weren’t buying. They were renting as a result. Surprisingly, most buyers in Chicago do tend to realize that the appreciation just isn’t here and they are not living there for 2 years and then trying to move.
“I noted GC”
Same thing applies. There’s a Drake condo on the market for $299k. Are you selling that and buying in Sarasota with all cash? Heck no.
I think people underestimate how expensive Florida has become over just the last 2 years. It’s unaffordable for the middle class and your lifestyle may even decline if you’re upper middle class. Retirees will go elsewhere because they’re priced out. Lol.
“Other than my and my wife’s May graduation at the top of the list, time of year has had zero impact. We moved, and bought, when we wanted to (for space, way of life, etc.), needed to (for work), or were able to (waited to find a seller without a broker to be able to afford entry-level home in desired neighborhood), sometimes at considerable inconvenience re: school.”
History shows this is not the case with most buyers. There are always buyers year round anonny. But that is not the “season.” If you want the most inventory, and to get your kids into the schools when you want, then spring season is when most of the action is.
“2- Where are the fire sales if Jeff Park?”
I think many of you don’t realize what has happened in Florida over the last few years, with the exception of Stacy and Mike HG, of course. Stacy has been on this blog several times telling us how her home is up 40% in Florida.
There aren’t “fire sales” in Jefferson Park. But if you sell at $350,000 you can buy absolutely nothing in Tampa/St Pete or Sarasota area. You better have $500k or more. $600k to $1 million. So the old “plan” where the Chicagoan sold in Chicago and moved to Sarasota and bought a 3/2 house for $350,000 doesn’t exist anymore. Heck, even the Villages is expensive now. And yes, I put anything over $400k as expensive.
“3 – How many properties in the last 5 years have you cribbed about in Jeff Park?”
No one on this blog cares about Jefferson Park. When they do, I have no trouble covering properties there again. But I’m sure the inventory is low to non-existent right now. A record low in Chicago since they started giving monthly inventory numbers.
“It takes a good 5 months to receive a piece of furniture these days.”
I thought most of this was over now? Most furniture retailers have said the supply chain has mostly normalized. Demand has fallen. I don’t know about construction materials or fixtures. Home remodeling has really cooled off. People would rather go on a vacation and have already remodeled their kitchens during the pandemic.
“You would have to believe that the only the units available are the ones consistently turning over at shorter intervals and the units are self selecting for short term owners”
I only cover a couple hundred properties a year. It’s not enough of a sampling to show any patterns.
“I think it’s time to move on from the seasonality narrative in residential real estate.”
I have no idea what you are talking about. It’s not a narrative. It’s a fact. Look at any one of my monthly updates and it has a monthly sales graph currently going back 27 years and there is glaring seasonality. But i’ve never bought into the Superbowl story. Sales start picking up in early January and contracts typically peak in March – May.
“Barring a major economic improvement, it makes zero sense for HO with 3% mortgages to be selling, therefore inventory is going to be low for existing homes”
It’s definitely a drag but life happens. Also, when someone decides not to sell they also decide not to buy so it affects both demand and supply. Consequently, on a months of supply basis, inventory is actually up from last year. However, just as an interesting side note the absolute number of detached homes for sale is actually also up by 10% from last year. On the other hand the absolute number of attached homes is down quite a bit.
“Can’t imagine what it would be like to set up a whole house from scratch or do any kind of renovations.”
We’re going through that now. Not in any particular hurry. The lead time on furniture depends on what you are buying. If it’s a stock item you can get it in a week or two. If it’s made to order it can take up to 3 months but often sooner. No big deal. But damn the stuff is expensive.
The bigger deal are the craftsmen as always. You have to call them 5 – 10 times to get something done and they are booked out 2 – 4 weeks if they work small projects, which isn’t that bad. However, some of these folks don’t even want the business half the time. They have more than they can handle. Still.
“Same thing applies. There’s a Drake condo on the market for $299k. Are you selling that and buying in Sarasota with all cash? Heck no.”
The old N=1 trick.
There’s plenty of cheaper alternatives to St Armands
“I think people underestimate how expensive Florida has become over just the last 2 years. It’s unaffordable for the middle class and your lifestyle may even decline if you’re upper middle class. Retirees will go elsewhere because they’re priced out. Lol.”
In the popular spots, yeah. However there are tons of non-waterfront options for MC retirees.
I think many of you don’t realize what has happened in Florida over the last few years, with the exception of Stacy and Mike HG, of course. Stacy has been on this blog several times telling us how her home is up 40% in Florida.
There aren’t “fire sales” in Jefferson Park. But if you sell at $350,000 you can buy absolutely nothing in Tampa/St Pete or Sarasota area. You better have $500k or more. $600k to $1 million. So the old “plan” where the Chicagoan sold in Chicago and moved to Sarasota and bought a 3/2 house for $350,000 doesn’t exist anymore. Heck, even the Villages is expensive now. And yes, I put anything over $400k as expensive.
How are you such an expert on Fl RE since you don’t even live there?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2850-Hague-Ave-Sarasota-FL-34234/172165489_zpid/?
Plenty of options
” I really think Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are going to see a lot of retirees. Already, Louisiana is one of the most popular states for retirees but more will have to go there due to being priced out of Florida.”
South Carolina is much more popular for retirees than Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana. I would also put North Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia ahead of the states you listed.
It seems like most of the houses near me are either estate sales or flips of previous estate sales. I would not want to be a buyer or seller in this market. I’m really hoping that we continue to see low unemployment. I have a few friends who were laid off recently and all found new jobs quickly. Not sure if that’s going to last or if we’ll start seeing a lot of long term unemployment again. I really hope not. Being laid off is awful.
“I have a few friends who were laid off recently and all found new jobs quickly.”
Good news Jenny. Many of us remember the 2008-2009 period. You could go a year or even two years without finding a job. It was pretty brutal. Layoffs are stressful. I’m like you, Jenny, in that I hope we can avoid long-term unemployment this go around.
I think Louisiana is 5th for retirees? It definitely ranks up there.
“How are you such an expert on Fl RE since you don’t even live there?”
I never said I was an expert. But I have family members who were going to move there and are now priced out. It’s going to be a real issue going forward that no one is talking about. Florida has changed. It’s not the cheap, easy, sunshine state you can move to. Even the manufactured homes are renting for $1300 a month in some places when they used to rent for $500 or $600. That puts most housing out of reach for the average retiree who is living off of social security, where the average check is about $1500.
The implications are big as middle class Baby Boomers were relying on being able to get cheap housing in Florida and now they cannot.
“There’s plenty of cheaper alternatives to St Armands”
St Armands? I wasn’t even referring to that. You can’t even get a decent 2/2 house for $400k in Sarasota anymore. There are some 1400 square foot new builds that have no pool in the backyard, just a lanai. Those are about $500k these days. Not sure if they’ll get it with these mortgage rates though.
And NONE of these are on the waterfront. Waterfront? Ba ha ha ha. You better have $600k to a million.
“If it’s made to order it can take up to 3 months but often sooner. No big deal. But damn the stuff is expensive.”
Thanks for the info Gary. If made to order is 3 months, that’s back to pre-pandemic norms. That’s what it’s always taken me to get a chair made with my pick of materials etc. It’s good news that we’re back to normal wait times again on furniture.
“It’s not the cheap, easy, sunshine state you can move to. Even the manufactured homes are renting for $1300 a month in some places when they used to rent for $500 or $600. That puts most housing out of reach for the average retiree who is living off of social security, where the average check is about $1500.”
And then the US taxpayer keeps bailing out all the uninsured after every hurricane on top of this. It’s a very expensive place to live. I totally ruled it out.
“It’s a very expensive place to live. I totally ruled it out.”
And the insurance. Very high insurance rates.
St Armands? I wasn’t even referring to that. You can’t even get a decent 2/2 house for $400k in Sarasota anymore. There are some 1400 square foot new builds that have no pool in the backyard, just a lanai. Those are about $500k these days. Not sure if they’ll get it with these mortgage rates though.”
I literally posted a link to one…
“I never said I was an expert. But I have family members who were going to move there and are now priced out. It’s going to be a real issue going forward that no one is talking about. Florida has changed. It’s not the cheap, easy, sunshine state you can move to. Even the manufactured homes are renting for $1300 a month in some places when they used to rent for $500 or $600. That puts most housing out of reach for the average retiree who is living off of social security, where the average check is about $1500.”
Sabrina has family in Florida – iNSTAnT ExpErt on Fl RE
JU has Family/friends in the CPD – yOu KnOW NotHiNG aBOuT cRImE in chICaGO
Sober up and do better
“Sabrina has family in Florida –”
Nope. Not in Florida. As I said: priced out. Can’t move there now.
So the couldn’t even but and you are an expert?
You sound very smart
So they couldn’t even buy
Under contract quickly in West Avondale. There just aren’t that many updated bungalows at $499,000 on the market.
Love the black cabinets in the kitchen. I’m tired of white, white, white.
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4106-W-Eddy-St-60641/home/13457526
That house in Avondale is really cute. Too bad it’s such a short lot and adding a garage would eat up most of the yard. It’s one of the few newly remodeled places I actually like. There are so many terrible remodels in my area.
Unit was for sale last year so not really “fast”.
It will be interesting to see how much under ask this went for
Good catch on the no garage
Why call it “West Avondale” (totally made up) when that area has 3 other names, none of them with bad connotations? From Wiki:
Avondale Gardens
Avondale Gardens (also known as Merchant Park) (Addison to the north, Belmont to the south, the Union Pacific/Northwest rail line to the West, Pulaski Road to the east) has been in recent years relabeled as “South Old Irving Park” by some. Like Kilbourn Park, the neighborhood is more akin to neighboring Avondale in terms of both its built environment and the sociological makeup of its residents than other areas of the Irving Park Community Area. The name Merchant Park owes its name to John and Clara Merchant, whose house in Old Irving has been designated an official landmark by the City of Chicago.
Short lots are a bummer–could put in a parking pad, or maybe a single car garage, without completely ruining the backyard.
“Short lots are a bummer–could put in a parking pad, or maybe a single car garage, without completely ruining the backyard.”
We built a 2.5 car garage off the alley at a place that had a yard roughly the same, or not much bigger than that Avondale place. Left us with really only patio area and no grass/not much playing space, but it did create a nice courtyard vibe (brick on the side facing the house with a pergola adjacent to the garage wall) and blocked the utility lines (and the back of a building) from sight when on the patio. If I were faced with a similar situation again, I’d do the same tall brick wall concept again, but would also do a fireplace on the garage wall. The wow factor of those go a long way in distracting from the fact that it’s just a patio out back and no yard (which are too small for kids over a certain age anyways, but I see their value for little ones, and dogs).
Also, that Avondale house looks pretty nice.
We’re in Santa Fe for two weeks. Love it here. Renting a VRBO. Skiing this weekend – plenty of snow in the mountains.
Looked at two small 2 BR condo units in town today. First was $385,000, built in 1986 with cheap materials, and overlooked a highway and cemetery. Nice layout and New Mexican vibes, though.
Second was in a much nicer and quieter part of town but part of a big and rather ugly complex. Had nice mountain views, built in 98 and much better built than first place, but $499,000. Has been on market 100 days (a while for here) and realtor said she’d offer $50,000 below ask.
We’re not even close to being ready to buy a second home. Still have our first in Highland Park. But selling our home in HP and buying one here wouldn’t necessarily be a great financial move, considering we have 2,800 SF in HP valued around $600,000 and would probably buy something with 1,200 SF here for $500,000. Not happening (plus our kids wouldn’t be happy with us – Younger one is still in college).
Crash is coming:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/first-time-homebuyers-are-absolutely-screwed-right-now
Sabrina and the crowd will pretend everything is fine right up until the point funds start announcing suspensions of redemptions just like in 2007.
“We’re in Santa Fe for two weeks. Love it here. Renting a VRBO. Skiing this weekend – plenty of snow in the mountains.”
Nice. You going up to Ski Santa Fe? I’ve never been there. Was supposed to go to Taos next weekend but had to cancel. Have a great trip!
“ Crash is coming:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/first-time-homebuyers-are-absolutely-screwed-right-now”
WTF is a cat child?
Going 4X gross @ +6% is batshit insane. (Without major parental support)
Going to love seeing it crash and burn
So affordability is back to 1986 levels…except there’s this: https://www.thezebra.com/resources/home/median-home-size-in-us/ so it’s not apples to apples. And anecdotes about people living in Seattle or NY don’t mean squat to me. Those cities are just too expensive.
The market and buyers and sellers will adapt to higher mortgage rates and not just with lower prices. People will change what they spend money on and builders will have to build smaller homes if rates stay at these levels. But there’s lots of talk about rates coming back down once inflation comes down – if it does come down. Lots of debate about that also.
To the person trying to post a comment as Dan. Welcome, but I’m not putting through any comments from people using the name “Dan.” We have an old Dan, now using Helmethofer, and we have Dan #2. Pick a different name.
Thank you.
“Going to love seeing it crash and burn”
You lose all credibility linking to the doom and gloom site ZeroHedge. They haven’t been right about anything. Ever. And the world should have ended like 20 times about 15 years ago.
Every market is different. You’re not screwed in the Midwest where there are still affordable homes.
“Sabrina and the crowd will pretend everything is fine right up until the point funds start announcing suspensions of redemptions just like in 2007.”
Nothing about this market is the same as 2007. Absolutely nothing. Anyone who says otherwise loses all credibility.
Don’t forget, we now have the best qualified buyers in the last 20 years all who bought in the last decade. And now they have equity.
I was listening to a podcast the other day and the couple bought a new house 2 years ago and said they were just able to get the PMI off. They didn’t bring any new money to the table, so, incredibly, that’s how much their house in Iowa appreciated during that time. They are not alone. Plenty of people are house rich. That’s completely the opposite of 2007 when so many were house poor.
Thanks for the update about Santa Fe Dan #2. Sounds like an interesting housing market. Who are the people buying 2/2 condos for $500k? It is retirees? Airbnb investors?
“You lose all credibility linking to the doom and gloom site ZeroHedge. They haven’t been right about anything. Ever. And the world should have ended like 20 times about 15 years ago.”
Uhh the bug did come from a lab so there’s that. They’ve been right about other stuff as well.
But hey you don’t like ZH because they don’t espouse the matriarchal, leftist worldview you think you are imbuing on the world so let’s take a look at Capital One.
https://www.capitalone.com/learn-grow/business-resources/prepare-business-for-libor-transition/
“Approximately $200 trillion in debt and contracts needs to be transitioned away from LIBOR by the end of June 2023.”
Yeah all of that paper is going to roll seamlessly.
“Uhh the bug did come from a lab so there’s that. They’ve been right about other stuff as well.”
No one has any evidence it has. I think they should certainly still be investigating. We know the Chinese will never tell us the truth.
ZeroHedge is a Russian propaganda website. That’s all it is and all it ever has been. No one takes anything they say seriously.
But here you go Bob. More doom and gloom. You come back on here every few years predicting that housing is going to crash and it never does. We have certainly entered into a new reality with the mortgage rates at 7% however. Fed has no choice but to take the speculation out of the market. Again. We’re in a for a rocky road, that’s for sure. The party is over. But Chicago should hold up far better than the bubblicious cities.
And I have no idea what will happen in Florida. They are back to flipping mansions again in Palm Beach.
“No one has any evidence it has. I think they should certainly still be investigating. We know the Chinese will never tell us the truth.”
Why would they need to investigate? We were told it was completely zoonotic and any thought contrary was the sign of a conspiracy theory.
Are you going to start spouting Qanon theories next…
“right up until the point funds start announcing suspensions of redemptions”
Uh, seems like you weren’t paying attention, Bobbo.
“Yeah all of that paper is going to roll seamlessly.”
What’s going to be the hold up on a transition from one floating rate benchmark to another–please give something reasonable, that’s not just an edge case.
Virtually all of that paper already has an alternate rate calculation baked in–but one that would be worse for the borrower, so there is an incentive for borrowers to fix any ‘problem’ in the docs that would impede switching from LIBOR to SOFR or whatever.
“I was listening to a podcast the other day and the couple bought a new house 2 years ago and said they were just able to get the PMI off. They didn’t bring any new money to the table, so, incredibly, that’s how much their house in Iowa appreciated during that time. They are not alone. Plenty of people are house rich. That’s completely the opposite of 2007 when so many were house poor.”
N=1 strikes again…
The Capital One link wasn’t to say there will be issues with replacing LIBOR with a newer benchmark. It was to show a reliable source stating how much floating rate debt is out there in aggregate that will eventually have to be rolled in a much higher rate environment.
“The Capital One link wasn’t to say there will be issues with replacing LIBOR”
Then why did you use that pull quote? It’s ONLY talking about the debt that is still tied to LIBOR and has to change.
Because it’s quite hard to find aggregated debt statistics especially if you don’t work in that industry. That article alone has aggregated floating rate debt totals or close as LIBOR was presumably a very high market share benchmark. If it it only proves my oint even further that there is a debt tsunami coming due.
It’s not common for the WSJ to compare the size of the debt market to equities but last time I recall them doing so it was a bit larger.
“Why would they need to investigate?”
Various US government agencies have been investigating it for the past 3 years. We need to know how it started so we can prevent it from happening again.
“there is a debt tsunami coming due.”
The need to ‘transition away’ from LIBOR has NOTHING to do with maturity dates on the debt, only that it’s debt that was issued with LIBOR benchmarks, and LIBOR ceases to exist in a couple of months, so it has to be replaced–and if it ain’t with SOFR, then the interest will (most likely) be calculated based on the US “Prime Rate”–possibly spread-adjusted.
The debt itslef may be coming due, or it may not be coming due, but you didn’t illuminate anything about due dates with that citation.
In my experience any floating rate debt documents are written such that they would be tied to another similar benchmark if the one they are initially tied to ceases to exist. What benchmark the rate is tied to doesn’t impact the loan maturity date. Might have to pay down the loan to get further extensions if there are extension options and those extensions are going to tie to a different benchmark, but that is a separate issue. That instance is usually indicative that a leasing hurdle or some other occupancy hurdle hasn’t been met so fixed rate debt isn’t an option.
It’s not the benchmark used it’s the aggregate amount of debt. There are so many businesses on highly leveraged, near zero % term loans that are unprofitable in a non-ZIRP world. These are zombie firms, there are a ton of them & they are significant.
Annonny – I skied Taos Ski Valley yesterday. My fourth time there. Have never tried Ski Santa Fe but plan to.
Sabrina – I think mostly retirees and Airbnb is right. But can’t say I have complete knowledge. SFH homes near where we’re staying all go for $1 million or more.
“Why would they need to investigate? We were told it was completely zoonotic and any thought contrary was the sign of a conspiracy theory.”
What universe were you in at that time? That’s not what happened. Here is a typical example of the discussion at that time: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/29/982272319/who-report-wildlife-farms-not-market-likely-source-of-coronavirus-pandemic
It’s a conspiracy theory when someone like Tucker Carlson claims that it came from a lab without evidence or research. And what was he saying behind the scenes at Fox at the time?
“It’s not the benchmark used it’s the aggregate amount of debt.”
“debt and contracts”
It’s not really that hard to find info about aggregate US private debt. The FRED economic data has all sorts of variants of debt figures.
It appears that total US non-government debt is around $40T. Which ain’t even close to all LIBOR-based.
There is something like 25% more aggregate mortgage debt than there was at the start of the GFC. Of course, inflation is ~40% in that same timeframe, so in real dollar terms, it’s down.
“What universe were you in at that time? That’s not what happened. Here is a typical example of the discussion at that time: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/29/982272319/who-report-wildlife-farms-not-market-likely-source-of-coronavirus-pandemic”
Reality
Are you honestly trying to make the case that the “Science” wasnt settled wrt the origins of Covid?
Thats some Sabrina level gaslighting
“Under contract quickly in West Avondale. There just aren’t that many updated bungalows at $499,000 on the market…4106-W-Eddy-St”
that isn’t a bungalow.
“Are you honestly trying to make the case that the “Science” wasnt settled wrt the origins of Covid?”
Where is your evidence for this assertion? Here is further evidence of my assertion: https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-lab-leak-animal-spillover-coronavirus-origin-questions-2021-5
Your position is the definition of conspiracy theory: assertions without evidence.
Gary – If you want to argue that the origins of Covid originating in a lab wasnt portrayed as a fringe/conspiracy/racist theory (See the response to Sen Cotton’s Op-Ed for example), knock yourself out.
It was debunked Gary. Why do you hate science? – https://www.npr.org/2020/04/22/841925672/scientists-debunk-lab-accident-theory-of-pandemic-emergence
One’s perspective on this issue depends on the timeframe under analysis. Things evolved over time. You had Trump claiming that he had evidence of a lab leak but he never produced that evidence. Cotton at one point claimed that Covid came from a bioweapon run amok but then he walked that back. The Washington Post criticized Cotton but later walked back some of their statements. By late 2021 there was no “settled science” though the lab leak was seen as unlikely. Hell, as early as March of 2021 Robert Redfield believed it came from a lab.
You know what they say about a broken clock. Maybe we should give some credence to the idea that estrogen in water can turn people gay.
“that isn’t a bungalow.”
Sorry. There aren’t that many updated cute little houses. Happy now marco?
“One’s perspective on this issue depends on the timeframe under analysis. Things evolved over time.”
Yep. Kept changing. Which is why they are still investigating it though.
“One’s perspective on this issue depends on the timeframe under analysis. Things evolved over time. You had Trump claiming that he had evidence of a lab leak but he never produced that evidence. Cotton at one point claimed that Covid came from a bioweapon run amok but then he walked that back. The Washington Post criticized Cotton but later walked back some of their statements. By late 2021 there was no “settled science” though the lab leak was seen as unlikely. Hell, as early as March of 2021 Robert Redfield believed it came from a lab.”
Now you’re just rewriting history
Are you stating that outside of Fox, did any journalism outlet portray the Lab Leak as anything but a fringe/conspiracy theory? A simple yes or no will suffice
And yes one can be correct for the wrong reasons, but thats not what we’re talking about and is solely a means to deflect responsibility
From Time:
“But three years and nearly seven million lives lost later, there’s still little certainty over whether the virus first naturally infected humans at a seafood market in Wuhan, as many scientists originally believed, or escaped a laboratory, as the Energy Department now reportedly believes based on undisclosed new intelligence. And at this point, experts worry that due to the charged atmosphere surrounding such investigations, we may never be sure.”
https://time.com/6258960/covid-19-origins-lab-leak-china-politics/
“Are you stating that outside of Fox, did any journalism outlet portray the Lab Leak as anything but a fringe/conspiracy theory? A simple yes or no will suffice”
Yes. But I believe in providing evidence for my assertions so let me start by saying that the answer to your question depends on the time period. The reaction to the theory initially was more negative than it was later. In addition, it wasn’t black and white. A lot of the backlash was over the fact that evidence for the theory was not provided. But here is a balanced story pretty early on in fact: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/politics/us-intelligence-virus-started-chinese-lab/index.html
“It’s not really that hard to find info about aggregate US private debt. The FRED economic data has all sorts of variants of debt figures.
It appears that total US non-government debt is around $40T. Which ain’t even close to all LIBOR-based.
There is something like 25% more aggregate mortgage debt than there was at the start of the GFC. Of course, inflation is ~40% in that same timeframe, so in real dollar terms, it’s down.”
It’s not total debt that is going to be the main problem that causes issues in the near/medium term. It’s variable rate debt. If you could share the FRED series # that shows variable rate debt outstanding by companies that I’d be interested to see.
All I found from FRED was some dumb very high level analysis comparing the utility sector to real estate sector with regard to interest rate coverage which is a few years old. There are many more sectors than that about to undergo serious pain. The heroin of ZIRP has now been withdrawn and there is no methadone for the debt addicts. Its going to get ugly.
“Yes, but”
I stopped reading after the but
Just posted my February update. Once again sales were way down in February from last year but low inventories and short market times seem to indicate little pricing pressure. https://lucidrealty.com/chicago-real-estate-market-update-home-sales-only-down-36/
Anyone else seeing the possibility of mortgage rates rising to 8% this spring?
2-year at 5%. 10-year treasury should be much higher than 3.99%. Even as it stands right now, the market is going to grind to a halt by April as rate locks expire. Buyers will move to the sidelines again and wait it out.
” Even as it stands right now, the market is going to grind to a halt by April as rate locks expire. Buyers will move to the sidelines again and wait it out.”
————————————-
If that is true, Sabrina, then how HAWT can a HAWT market like Chicago be?
I heard somewhere that “many” people got 100% raises by changing jobs, and that people just need to live their lives.
Any rate-based slow down should only be affecting the $1m+ market–everyone else will just trade down.
Right?
“I heard somewhere that “many” people got 100% raises by changing jobs, and that people just need to live their lives.”
They did. Chicago has a sizable tech industry. They were throwing money at anyone and everyone. Sorry you didn’t get yours anon(tfo). It’s over now, but as long as you keep your job, you’re not going to see a salary cut.
And, no, as we’ve already seen, rising mortgage rates push the buyers to the sidelines. Chicago sales are down 40% to 50% to 15 year lows as a result. Buyers are willing to move to the sidelines and wait to see if the rates will come down – and they already did so once. Buyers have been conditioned over the last 15 years that if rates rise, to just wait a bit, and they will come down again.
These early spring buyers likely locked in rates in the low 6s. But anyone else thinking about buying and who haven’t locked in, are going to be spooked by 7% again. It doesn’t mean ALL sales will stop. Clearly they haven’t. Move up buyers and cash buyers aren’t as rate sensitive.
But 8% mortgages? Sales will shrivel to the lowest since records began. Lol. I have some data back to 1997 from G. It will be worse than those levels.
“If that is true, Sabrina, then how HAWT can a HAWT market like Chicago be?”
You all don’t have a clue what a “hot” market is or even what is happening in Chicago despite reading this blog for years. My god.
Chicago’s sales are down 40% or 50% and are at 11-12 year lows. Basically they at the bottom of the housing bust when no one wanted to touch real estate. Housing is in a recession.
BUT- Chicago inventory remains near record lows. Only downtown has excess inventory which has been the case throughout the pandemic.
As of Mar 8, which is the spring buying season and the busiest time of the year for housing, there are just 210 homes available in all of Lincoln Park. If you are looking to buy there, do you have much choice? No, you do not. There are just 13 properties listed between $500,000 and $600,000. If you’re looking in that price point, you need to wait.
How many buyers are on the sidelines waiting for inventory? Probably enough that when something does get listed, it’s not going to sell for much of a discount.
Chicago’s market is “hot” in that despite the sales plunge, prices are holding, for now. It varies by neighborhood, of course. And downtown still has more inventory than anywhere else so there ARE price reductions there and some real deals for people willing to jump in.
“Anyone else seeing the possibility of mortgage rates rising to 8% this spring?”
Both Mohamed El-Erian and Ken Griffen both wrote similar articles today saying Powell keeps sending mixed messages with his testimony and in Fed minutes and that is causing the market to continue to rally defying all expectations and that this will result in an eventually higher terminal rate to bring inflation expectations under control. Powell is way out of his league and doesn’t know to stick to a singular consistent message.
Of course in government failure is rewarded and you fail up so if he wants to be the next Treasury secretary he is doing just fine.
Yes 8% mortgages will be in the cards, possibly 8.5%. The guy is a complete buffoon.
“Powell is way out of his league and doesn’t know to stick to a singular consistent message.”
He has been amazingly consistent since September 2022. The only “new” thing that was said this week was that they may have to go further than everyone was assuming but that’s because the data continues to come in too hot. You can’t fault him for that.
Let’s be honest, Bob. You would be bitching and moaning about whomever was in there. No one would be up to snuff.
“They did. Chicago has a sizable tech industry. They were throwing money at anyone and everyone. Sorry you didn’t get yours anon(tfo). It’s over now, but as long as you keep your job, you’re not going to see a salary cut.”
That may become challenging
Technology companies cut the most jobs last month with 21,387, 28% of all cuts announced in February. The industry has cut a total of 63,216, up 33,705% from the 187 cuts announced in the same period last year. This sector has announced 35% of all job cuts in 2023.
“prices are holding”
We keep seeing places that are lagging long-term “trend” by 10% or more.
That’s not actually “holding”
““prices are holding”
We keep seeing places that are lagging long-term “trend” by 10% or more.
That’s not actually “holding””
RE is an illiquid asset, it’s not Johnson & Johnson or ExxonMobil. And on a RE blog the person that runs it doesn’t understand that lack of volume is equivalent to declines in the absence of ticker tapes. Your house is worth whatever Zillow tells them. Or if Zillow is telling them a worse number than they like I’ll create a clone Zillow and tell them their house is worth a lot and rake in ad revenue.
“We keep seeing places that are lagging long-term “trend” by 10% or more.”
Well Bob that’s because the downtown has lagged for years. I post downtown properties because that’s what’s on the market. Neighborhood properties are selling faster. I don’t have time to cover many of those.
Prices are holding because inventory is so low. If you have an updated property you are thinking of listing, it’s a good time to do so.
“We keep seeing places that are lagging long-term “trend” by 10% or more.”
Chicago is holding pretty well.
If I paid $450k and I sell for $450k, the price is holding. Under your definition NO city in America is “holding” – but maybe they aren’t. Housing prices actually falling in most cities and so it’s likely many are below inflation by double the rate. 20% or more in some cases.
“That may become challenging”
Not really. Chicago has a big economy. Plenty of companies hiring. If you get laid off of Salesforce just go work at the CBOE.
“Under your definition NO city in America is “holding” ”
Isn’t that exactly what the Fed wants?
Oh, yeah, it is:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-08/us-federal-reserve-s-inflation-fight-spurs-crypto-tech-housing-market-drops
2nd largest bank failure in history today only surpassed by WaMu in 2008. “But SVB is a different kind of bank there aren’t systemic issues in the banking system” lol
I can’t get worked up about SVB. Imo gargantuan unrealized losses lie in the non-public, private “invisible” markets: VC, CRE, & PE — none of which have good indices.
MBRE used to publish a cool index of prime Chicago CRE as part of their quarterly 40-page reports. But they sold themselves in Nov. to Transwestern. And data for prior years in TW’s latest report doesn’t exactly match MBRE’s.
MBRE’s last report for Q3 2022 indicated the worst hit area of the Chicago Business District (CBD) was the East Loop, with vacancy rates for A-Class property exceeding 25% — a quintupling since pre-pandemic Q4 2019.
Today’s email from Transwestern says:
“Available sublease space in the Chicago CBD office market continues to reach historic highs, with the current inventory at 7,834,033 sf. … While 646,577 sf of sublease space was leased in 2022, 1.2 million sf of sublease space was added to the market in just the first two months of 2023. Even more sublease space is expected to be added to the market as economic challenges lead to layoffs….”
Fritz still panders to voters by promising to shift taxes from residential to commercial pins. That would have been a good idea if he’d actually done it 3 or 4 years ago. Now is too late.
SVB had 175B of deposits prior to the bank run on Thursday where its reported 42B of deposits left the bank. So 133B in deposits left being conservative (other sources have slightly higher numbers but it doesn’t matter for illustration). It’s also reported 93% of these aren’t insured by FDIC.
That’s $124 billion dollars of depositor money now at risk of not being accessible on Monday if a deal isn’t reached. I’m not talking about the stockholders they should be wiped out. I’m not even talking about the bond holders they should be wiped out too.
But if on Monday you don’t think $124B of depositor money being inaccessible and in an ambiguous legal state won’t be a huge problem well I don’t know what to tell you.
“But if on Monday you don’t think $124B of depositor money being inaccessible and in an ambiguous legal state won’t be a huge problem well I don’t know what to tell you.”
I should have known the bears would be on Crib Chatter to talk about the end of the world happening because of SVB.
Just a reminder, they literally have been wrong for the last 15 years- even wrong during the actual bust, if that’s even possible. Lol.
We just lived through a pandemic where most businesses were shut. I think the US economy can survive SVB.
Sabrina living off hopium.
Case shiller home price index with the year 2000 equaling 100 for all cities
Chicago: 184.4
Seattle: 351.7
Los Angeles: 392.6
New York: 270.5
Dallas: 284.4
Denver: 308.8
Phoenix: 311.1
Tampa: 368.0
Miami: 398.6
Literally, but a home anywhere but Chicago. Property taxes, crime, sales taxes, and weather make this a very undesirable place to live. Just look at the Chicago and Illinois population on stats for data.
“I should have known the bears would be on Crib Chatter to talk about the end of the world happening because of SVB.”
Its a pretty important issue and the .gov/FRB response have major implications, no?
Bob’s response seems measured, where as your flippant whinging seems rather pathetic
“Literally, but a home anywhere but Chicago. Property taxes, crime, sales taxes, and weather make this a very undesirable place to live. Just look at the Chicago and Illinois population on stats for data.”
This has been the bane of my existence. We waited too long to leave and took a major hit in moving to NC. Most of that delta occurred in the last 3 years.
However, Chicago is probably now the most affordable big city in the country. If you don’t believe it’s going to become a worse place to live it’s a great deal. But if Brandon Johnson becomes mayor all bets are off.
“Literally, but a home anywhere but Chicago.”
One can make most things “literally” true by using selective data.
Cleveland and Detriot both lag Chicago since 2000.
Move the baseline back some: https://realestatedecoded.com/case-shiller/
and even Detroit has done better than Chicago.
“Bob’s response seems measured, where as your flippant whinging seems rather pathetic”
She watches TeeVee & believes Erin Burnett & Poppy Harlow are in her social circle. When she discusses what university her progeny are attending with her neighbors she anchors her stature to a US News & World Report ranking.
She goes along to get along & touts the Democrat party line. And in tough times her economic stature is transferred to people like me, as should be. It’s just her ego has gotten well ahead of her ability due to 15 years of ZIRP & money printing. Something that can never be allowed to happen again.
“However, Chicago is probably now the most affordable big city in the country. If you don’t believe it’s going to become a worse place to live it’s a great deal.”
Yep. Most affordable big city in the country with true deals. I tell all my friends who are thinking of moving to just wait it out and they’ll be fine.
“Literally, but a home anywhere but Chicago. Property taxes, crime, sales taxes, and weather make this a very undesirable place to live. Just look at the Chicago and Illinois population on stats for data.”
An undesirable place to live?
But, yet, somehow Chicago has the hottest urban neighborhood in the entire country. Gee, it’s SO undesireable that developers are willing to put billions of dollars into such a city. Go figure.
The bears have been wrong about Chicago for 15 years. It’s pathetic. Come up with a legit argument, at least. I’ve said that the downtown has performed terribly and that it got crushed by COVID, the riots and the Baby Boomers leaving all at once. And something needs to be done about Michigan Avenue. It needs a new vision and I worry that neither mayoral candidate has any but we’re stuck with what we’re stuck with for now.
But Lincoln Yards is under construction now. Another developer just proposed a 52 story tower for Fulton Market. Two other huge river developments are moving forward. Please tell me they’re building all of this in Tampa or Jacksonville or even Miami.
I get tired of those who have left years ago talking about Chicago’s demise. Clearly, you are still obsessed with Chicago or else you wouldn’t be lurking and posting on a Chicago housing blog. It’s a beautiful city. It’s okay to admit you miss it.
“She watches TeeVee & believes Erin Burnett & Poppy Harlow are in her social circle. When she discusses what university her progeny are attending with her neighbors she anchors her stature to a US News & World Report ranking.”
Here we go. Bob has no real arguments so he has to turn to misogyny. But we all know he’s a sexist pig, right? Par for the course. And he talks about “rankings.” My kids went to the state schools. I’ve already said that. Most of yours will too. Great schools. I’m proud of them.
But this must be his projection because even whatever school he went to isn’t saving him from women getting better jobs than him.
Bob has been wrong about Chicago, and also the demise of the entire US economy, several times now. I’ve lost track how many times he’s been wrong. And he’s wrong again today.
The world isn’t coming to an end.
“Yep. Most affordable big city in the country with true deals. I tell all my friends who are thinking of moving to just wait it out and they’ll be fine.”
Define Big City
“But, yet, somehow Chicago has the hottest urban neighborhood in the entire country. Gee, it’s SO undesireable that developers are willing to put billions of dollars into such a city. Go figure.”
By what metric does Chicago has the HAWTEST ™ urban neighborhood in the entire country?
Link to where developers HAVE put bILlIonS into this deal
“Define Big City”
It’s the cheapest top 10 by population city in the country.
“By what metric does Chicago has the HAWTEST ™ urban neighborhood in the entire country?”
Money being spent, companies moving in, apartments being built, commercial space being built, hotels being built, restaurants being built.
Chicago has the hottest urban neighborhood in the entire country and has for the last 5 years. The pandemic really opened the neighborhood up though. Thank god. The alderman was blocking any residential construction there and it would have created a stupid dead zone devoid of humans. Instead, he panicked during the pandemic and began allowing residential construction instead and now there are 19,000 apartments planned for that neighborhood. All won’t get built, but if even half does it just is an amazingly hot neighborhood.
Remember when the South Loop was the hottest urban neighborhood in 2005 because they were building 10,000 condos? Lol. Yikes.
“Thor Equities is ready to start swinging hammers again in Chicago’s Fulton Market.
The New York-based firm led by chairman Joe Sitt is considering paying more than $100 million to Nealey Foods for the largest remaining development site in the Windy City’s hottest commercial real estate submarket, CoStar News reported, citing people familiar with the deal.”
They are going to pay $100 million just for the site. Whoa. That’s more than OneChicago paid for the Holy Name parking lot which was also a big sale.
https://therealdeal.com/chicago/2023/02/22/joe-sitts-thor-equities-eyeing-100m-fulton-market-development-site-deal/
“Most affordable big city in the country”
“Define Big City”
Back at ya, JU—what’s an arguably ‘big city’ that is more “affordable” than Chicago right now? Aside from Detroit. And possibly Atlanta.
As to ‘what’s a big city’, I think it’s more like the X biggest cities are also in a top 20 metro. So:
NYC, LA, Chicago, Dallas/FW, Houston, DC, Philly, ATL, Miami, PHX, Boston, EsEff, maybe Detroit, Seattle, MSP, San Diego, Denver.
I don’t think of San Antonio, Austin (despite popularity) Jax, Columbus, Indy as “big cities”, in large part bc of their relatively smaller hinterland, even tho they’re all a *lot* bigger than, eg, Boston.
How exactly is more supply going to be good for real estate prices in Chicago?
That’s not even mentioning the lack of desirability of new megaprojects with their hideous architecture, mixed use chain store garbage, the mandatory low income tenancy, horrible parking structure, and lack of public transit
I don’t think anyone is clamoring to live near that new abomination at Wrigley, or New City or that pile of shit in the south loop, they live there because they have to one would think
“Back at ya, JU—what’s an arguably ‘big city’ that is more “affordable” than Chicago right now? Aside from Detroit. And possibly Atlanta.”
If its the Big 3 – NY, LA, Chi – Chicago is the most affordable
If you’re going top 10 MSA
D-FW-A
Houston
ATL
If you go to 20, theres more
“The New York-based firm led by chairman Joe Sitt is considering paying more than $100 million to Nealey Foods for the largest remaining development site in the Windy City’s hottest commercial real estate submarket, CoStar News reported, citing people familiar with the deal.”
They are going to pay $100 million just for the site. Whoa. That’s more than OneChicago paid for the Holy Name parking lot which was also a big sale.”
Considering doesnt equal done
“Money being spent, companies moving in, apartments being built, commercial space being built, hotels being built, restaurants being built.
Chicago has the hottest urban neighborhood in the entire country and has for the last 5 years. The pandemic really opened the neighborhood up though. Thank god. The alderman was blocking any residential construction there and it would have created a stupid dead zone devoid of humans. Instead, he panicked during the pandemic and began allowing residential construction instead and now there are 19,000 apartments planned for that neighborhood. All won’t get built, but if even half does it just is an amazingly hot neighborhood.”
So its all in your head…
“Remember when the South Loop was the hottest urban neighborhood in 2005 because they were building 10,000 condos? Lol. Yikes.”
And look at it today
Chicago is cheapest major city by far compared to Tier 1 cities like NY, LA, SF, Boston, DC…
Chicago is also cheaper than major Tier 2 cities like Seattle, Portland, Austin, Atlanta, etc. At least when you compare moving to more urban areas vs further out burbs.
I’ve kicked around moving and it always seems like a loss to do so when we compare cost of real estate in combination with general amenities, schools, etc.
Russ, you should come visit us. I think we just convinced some friends of ours living in Florida to move here.
In other news…Chicago is so popular that Brandon Johnson has decided that he can add $19,000 to the purchase price of a $1 MM home with no consequences. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/brandon-johnson-proposes-revival-mansion-tax
Sorry, it’s behind a paywall.
“Chicago is so popular that Brandon Johnson has decided that he can add $19,000 to the purchase price of a $1 MM home”
Wait until he hears about what LA did, albeit at a higher threshold; might give him other ideas.
“Wait until he hears about what LA did, albeit at a higher threshold; might give him other ideas.”
And? Has it done ANYTHING to LA home prices or LA’s desirability?
Ba ha ha. Of course not. But then, California also has an 11% state income tax at the highest bracket, and that never stopped anyone from living there either.
“In other news…Chicago is so popular that Brandon Johnson has decided that he can add $19,000 to the purchase price of a $1 MM home with no consequences.”
He’s not the mayor, is he Gary? Both candidates have a LOT of ideas.
“So its all in your head…”
Only someone who lives far, far away and hasn’t been to Chicago in a long time would even say such a thing. Chicago has the hottest urban neighborhood in the country. Hands down. Literally billions of dollars are being invested there. By the way, Guinness is opening up only its second brewery in the United States there this summer. Huge space in an old building. Should be really cool. Yet further investment.
If you lived here and took the metra or the El through the neighborhood, you’d see 5 or 6- maybe more- huge cranes dotting the skyline there.
Like I said, I think it needs a movie theater to be a complete neighborhood. Also could really use some condo buildings in addition to the apartments. There are GenXers who would like to buy in that neighborhood and ultimately some Millennials would like to as well. But I suppose they will convert some apartments when the demand is there. They can’t get a loan for a condo building right now.
“Considering doesnt equal done”
Sterling was going to build on it. Related is building on several other lots. The national builders are swarming all over the west side.
“How exactly is more supply going to be good for real estate prices in Chicago?”
There isn’t more supply. There is only supply of apartments and some luxury condos. That’s all they are building.
Chicago is at record low inventory right now but if you want a condo in the Palmolive or Tribune Tower, plenty of options. But many buildings have nothing on the market.
“I don’t think anyone is clamoring to live near that new abomination at Wrigley,”
What are you even talking about? The midrise across the street that’s been there 4 or 5 years and is leased out? That building?
I’m a big fan of the new building on Broadway. It fits the style of the street. Young renters really want nice new highrises in Lakeview, but they can’t build those except close to the waterfront and there are few lots left. That’s why they’re all moving to Fulton Market. Can get the high rise living with amenities and views.
“And possibly Atlanta.”
Atlanta? Yikes. Super expensive. Compare Bucktown there with Bucktown here. Need a million for either one. Yikes.
I forgot about Philly. They might be some good “affordability” competition. Pretty attractive prices there too.
“Atlanta? Yikes. Super expensive. Compare Bucktown there with Bucktown here. Need a million for either one. Yikes”
Do you mean Buckhead?
“ are being invested there. By the way, Guinness is opening up only its second brewery in the United States there this summer. Huge space in an old building. Should be really cool. Yet further investment.
If you lived here and took the metra or the El through the neighborhood, you’d see 5 or 6- maybe more- huge cranes dotting the skyline there.
Like I said, I think it needs a movie theater to be a complete neighborhood. Also could really use some condo buildings in addition to the apartments. There are GenXers who would like to buy in that neighborhood and ultimately some Millennials would like to as well. But I suppose they will convert some apartments when the demand is there. They can’t get a loan for a condo building right now.
0 0
Sabrina on March 14th, 2023 at 1:18 am
“Considering doesnt equal done”
Sterling was going to build on it. Related is building on several other lots. The national builders are swarming all over the west side”
So Billions haven’t been invested, only planned.
Glad we agree you were incorrect
“And? Has it done ANYTHING to LA home prices or LA’s desirability?”
Do you even know what I’m referring to? Aparently not, bc the effective date hasn’t occured yet.
“Chicago is also cheaper than major Tier 2 cities like Seattle, Portland, Austin, Atlanta, etc. At least when you compare moving to more urban areas vs further out burbs.
I’ve kicked around moving and it always seems like a loss to do so when we compare cost of real estate in combination with general amenities, schools, etc.”
I’ve thought about this too. We also don’t have to worry about our houses burning down or catastrophic power outages caused by “100 year storms” that happen every few years.
A friend was shopping for a house in Seattle when I was shopping for a house here. She ended up not buying because all she could afford were dumps even though we were both looking in the $500,000 price range.
“somehow Chicago has the hottest urban neighborhood in the entire country.”
Uggggh this is remarkably false. Nearly every city in the country especially Austin, Miami, Boise have well outperformed Chicago in terms of price increases. Therefore those neighborhoods are hotter.
“outperformed Chicago in terms of price increases”
You’ve been around here enough to know that “hot” isn’t defined by price increases on the CC.
“Uggggh this is remarkably false. Nearly every city in the country especially Austin, Miami, Boise have well outperformed Chicago in terms of price increases. Therefore those neighborhoods are hotter.”
But are they HAWTTER ™?
I am with Russ and Jenny. I have thought about leaving Chicago for another city, but cost to city amenity can’t be beat. A few years ago I searched zillow in San Francisco, a condo similar to my boring $600K 2/2 was about $1.7MM. In the walkable part of Santa Monica, nothing really compared, but the closest was $2MM without an ocean view. Then you have to add 9% income tax. Thought about Boise or Salt Lake City, but they are just not my type of places.
I want to live some place that rarely gets above 80F and has marketable condos/townhouses that I can afford in walkable neighborhoods.
I lived in the Seattle area as a child–I could not take that rain again. One year it rained for 90 days in a row. Recess was always outside regardless of rain.
“Uggggh this is remarkably false. Nearly every city in the country especially Austin, Miami, Boise have well outperformed Chicago in terms of price increases. Therefore those neighborhoods are hotter.”
NEIGHBORHOOD MikeHG. You know, like Brickell, Wynwood, Little Haiti. A NEIGHBORHOOD. (Can you read????)
Chicago has the hottest urban neighborhood in the country with millions/billions of dollars of investment actually occurring right now including up to 19,000 new apartments on the drawing board (however, no one thinks they will all get built.) For now, the banks are lending and the developers are getting their plans to go taller approved. Once the neighborhood lost on blocking the first 50 story tower for being too tall, they gave up trying to block the others.
For me, I’m glad to see this density in that corridor. It can handle it. There are no single family homes nearby that the towers are looming over. And it allows more density and more units, both of which are needed.
Like I said, I’d like to see a movie theater go in to really have a complete neighborhood. It needs more entertainment that you can get to without crossing over the highway. Additionally, they need another bus line because the 20 isn’t cutting it anymore. They really need a bus line that goes from the Mag Mile/River North, cuts over down Randolph and then straight into the neighborhood to Ogden Avenue.
Also, no one is talking about “prices” because there are few to no condos being built in Fulton Market. Just apartments.
“I am with Russ and Jenny. I have thought about leaving Chicago for another city, but cost to city amenity can’t be beat.”
There is no other urban, dense city with big city amenities including top restaurants and entertainment at our price point with the exception of Philadelphia, perhaps. Even New Orleans, which is much smaller in population but does have big city amenities, is crazy expensive now.
“I want to live some place that rarely gets above 80F and has marketable condos/townhouses that I can afford in walkable neighborhoods.”
Maybe Cincinnati or Pittsburgh? But both are quite a bit smaller in population.
“Chicago has the hottest urban neighborhood in the country with millions/billions of dollars of investment actually occurring right now”
I was told it was Billions
“There is no other urban, dense city with big city amenities including top restaurants and entertainment at our price point with the exception of Philadelphia, perhaps. Even New Orleans, which is much smaller in population but does have big city amenities, is crazy expensive now.
Complete bullshit
Ain’t no one here going to Alina on a weekly basis, plenty of mid-majors cities are equal to Chicago food wise outside of the top 5
I can get food easily equal to anything outside the Alinea level in MKE/STL/MSP/IND/FTW.
The bitter crones need to get out more
“Maybe Cincinnati or Pittsburgh?”
You really suggested two of the hilliest cities east of the rockies as with an abundance of walkable neighborhoods?
Oh I wish they would do a reality show of a lady like Sabrina who moves to Cincinnati (Over the Rhine, the walkable part) or across the river in Northern Kentucky (Covington or Newport) the two walkable parts with flat land. I’ve got a friend in Pittsburgh its pretty similar.
They aren’t so welcoming of outsiders and they don’t care about your money. I think Covington & Newport still even have some of the saddest strip clubs in the country back from an era when it was a real vice district in the 40s. The “hip taverns” to walk to still have signs out front for beer that hasn’t been made since you were likely in highschool. They still smoke in the bars. Go ahead Sabrina go walk down to the Brass Monkey in Newport, or walk around Over the Rhine in Cincinnati proper at night. Or do tell what other areas are “walkable”.
The moneyed folks who live in the Ascent at Robeling are prisoners in that riverfront highrise. Try even parking on the street getting your dry cleaning: they’ll vandalize your luxury car out of pure jealousy & spite.
“Maybe Cincinnati or Pittsburgh? But both are quite a bit smaller in population.”
Too small and not even close to good skiing like Salt Lake City and Boise.
Fulton Market doesn’t have a movie theatre and has barely any residential (Sabrina’s own words) but is somehow the Hawtest neighborhood in the county. Nah, that’s easily Brickell in Miami because you’d be 3x your purchase price. Stay the hell away from Chicago real estate if you want any bit of return on investment.
Just posted an update on the outlook for home prices. Check out the Chicago Case Shiller futures at the bottom. Negative outlook for the next 4 years. Anyone with a futures account can take a position if they disagree: https://lucidrealty.com/real-estate-experts-slash-their-home-price-forecast/
“Nah, that’s easily Brickell in Miami because you’d be 3x your purchase price. Stay the hell away from Chicago real estate if you want any bit of return on investment.”
Professional money tells the story Mike HG and they believe you are wrong. More investment going into Fulton Market than any other neighborhood in the country. All the big national developers are there, and most of the local ones too. It truly has been an amazing success story over the last decade.
Like I said, the one good thing to come out of the pandemic was that the alderman panicked and allowed residential to go in north of Lake Street. Without that decision, it would be a wasteland of nothingness on the weekends, and even somewhat on the weekdays, with hybrid work-from-home. Now, with residential, it can be a complete neighborhood.
It’s getting the residential Mike HG. Several big apartment towers under construction right now and many more on the docket. Whether they get built, we’ll see. Money is certainly going to be tightening now.
“They aren’t so welcoming of outsiders and they don’t care about your money.”
Are you all sure Bob isn’t at least 70 years old? I mean, his statements are from someone who is old and bitter. Someone who lived in these cities in like 1985.
Pittsburgh is one of the most popular cities with Millennials, so I’m sure they would be welcome of “outsiders” just fine. Over the Rhine is completely gentrified, so I don’t think they care about my money either Bob.
Surprisingly, both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati score among the highest in the country for cities where people don’t own cars. I’ve never lived in either but they must have good public transportation and walking/biking infrastructure for that to be true. Pittsburgh is a big biking city, isn’t it?
I think a lot of Baby Boomer retirees will probably consider cities like Pittsburgh. Weather not too bad. Nice urban feel. Good food. Affordable housing and good medical care.
“I was told it was Billions”
I didn’t bother to add it up. Feel free. But if they’re buying the property for $100 million, that’s a big development probably worth $500 million. And that’s just one project.
JohnnyU doesn’t live in Chicago and hasn’t for decades. I’m glad he can get good quality food whatever second tier city he lives in. Lots of great chefs and restaurants in those cities. No one disputes it. I really recommend people go to St Louis and check out the scene there. Lots of great ethnic food there due to the immigrants it attracts. Really authentic Thai, for instance, but also Bosnian. I’m sure some new Ukrainian immigrant is whipping up some great stuff there right now too.
But Chicago is a bigger market and therefore has a bigger food scene. I would rank Philly’s up there with ours, though, and New Orleans has been a food haven for a long time. But while it has thousands of restaurants, sometimes you can’t get “good” in certain areas.
Johnny is on crack. I’m a big fan of smaller cities, but no way in hell any of the smaller cities have remotely the same amenities as Chicago.
I’m from Atlanta and go back several times a year. Yeah, there are good restaurants and the city is hot with transplants, but I’m talking things like museums, theaters, urban parks, art scene, educational institutions…. it just isn’t the same. It still is very suburban and lacks the depth of a real urban city.
Chicago has two top tier universities. Restaurants. Beach front. Millennium park. The museum campus. Multiple walkable neighborhoods. Public transit. IMHO, what makes Chicago so great is that it is also accessible. All that stuff is right at our fingertips and you don’t need to be a multi-millionaire (or live like a broke college student in NYC) to enjoy it.
“Are you all sure Bob isn’t at least 70 years old?”
He’s as cranky as a stereotypical 70 yo, but assuming it’s our same Bobbo from a dozen years ago, I for one am sure he’s not 70, or anything close.
40-ish.
“I really recommend people go to St Louis and check out the scene there.”
No way. Still too far north and the highest murder rate in the country: https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-with-most-murders
“No way. Still too far north and the highest murder rate in the country:”
“too far north”. What does that mean? You get some snow?
It doesn’t get nearly as cold as Chicago. Spring comes way sooner. Hot and humid summers though. I once met someone who lived there who “summered” in Michigan to escape. Lol.
But now that you’re in Raleigh, Gary, you’ll know all about hot and humid summers. St Louis probably still better than the Carolinas in that regard.
And the “highest murder rate in the country” actually isn’t true. New Orleans again has the title. It has been 11 years since they last had it. Ugh.
I want my snow gone within 24 hours 🙂
I showed you the data on the murder rate.
“Johnny is on crack.”
Crack is wack, Yo
“I’m a big fan of smaller cities, but no way in hell any of the smaller cities have remotely the same amenities as Chicago.”
Maybe not at the same level, but they do. (And yes Chicago is World Class wrt Museums)
“I’m from Atlanta and go back several times a year. Yeah, there are good restaurants and the city is hot with transplants, but I’m talking things like museums, theaters, urban parks, art scene, educational institutions…. it just isn’t the same. It still is very suburban and lacks the depth of a real urban city.”
Wasnt referring to ATL
“Chicago has two top tier universities. Restaurants. Beach front. Millennium park. The museum campus. Multiple walkable neighborhoods. Public transit. IMHO, what makes Chicago so great is that it is also accessible. All that stuff is right at our fingertips and you don’t need to be a multi-millionaire (or live like a broke college student in NYC) to enjoy it.”
Personally, I dont consider UIC a top tier University
Sounds like you’re describing FTW
So how often do/did head down to the UofC to enjoy the amenities? How often did you head down to S&I?
And before Sabrina chimes in with an ill formed response ignoring what I wrote, I’m not saying that Chicago doesnt have excellent amenities, its just that 99.47% of the residents dont take advantage of them in a manner that they couldnt replicate in another city
Johnny, I was using Atlanta as an example. However, even in my experience in other cities, outside of NYC, few have all that Chicago has to offer when talking a real urban experience. The depth of amenities across the board here are unmatched imho.
I think Chicago needs more effective marketing and allows the gang crime and corrupt politicians to overshadow all the good the city has to offer.
I was referring to UofC and NW even if Evanston technically isn’t Chicago. But even still having UIC, Loyola, and DePaul is good too.
We go to the museums several times a year. Millenium Park. Go to lakefront. We try to take advantage of all the city has to offer from the street fairs to other activities.
I’ll concede most people probably don’t take advantage of city as much as we do. We enjoy checking out various cities and all they have to offer. We used to travel to NYC a lot for weekends before kids and it was funny as we knew more about what was going on there more than our friends / family that actually lived in NYC at the time.
“But now that you’re in Raleigh, Gary, you’ll know all about hot and humid summers. St Louis probably still better than the Carolinas in that regard.”
Gary can get in his car after breakfast and be rubbing elbows with the Pogues and Kooks by lunch. St. Louisans, great as their custard may be, cannot.
“I showed you the data on the murder rate.”
Ok, but did you read your citaiton?
“St. Louis, Missouri has the highest murder rate of any US city of 69.4 murders per 100,000 people. In 2017, 205 people were murdered in St. Louis.”
2017(!!)
First link I found with 2022 stats (only of the 75 largest, but that’s all we are really talking about–for reference, #74 is Durham and #75 is Jersey City, both around 285k):
https://wirepoints.org/chicago-new-orleans-were-the-nations-murder-capitals-in-2022-a-wirepoints-survey-of-americas-75-largest-cities/
(note: not my favorite source, but facts are facts, and the facts are well organized there)
NOLA #1, STL #2. Chicago in #13, at just higher than 1/3 NOLA’s rate.
By counting stats, Chicago was #1, but back under the combined total of NYC and LA, which counts as a postive sign.
Lowest homicide rates in actually big cities (low to high): San Jose, San Diego, NYC, Boston, Austin, EsEff, Seattle.
“Johnny, I was using Atlanta as an example. However, even in my experience in other cities, outside of NYC, few have all that Chicago has to offer when talking a real urban experience. The depth of amenities across the board here are unmatched imho.”
I’m not arguing that Chicago doesnt have outstanding Museums and Restaurants, only that once you get past the top 5 (or so) theres not much difference and the vast majority of folks arent hitting Alinea or S&I on a regular basis. Most smaller cities will have an Art Museum, it just wont have as large of a collection. Looking at Sunday… for the 100th time doesnt do much for me (Yes I know there are rotating exhibits)
“I think Chicago needs more effective marketing and allows the gang crime and corrupt politicians to overshadow all the good the city has to offer.”
Tall order. Not sure how feasible it is
“I was referring to UofC and NW even if Evanston technically isn’t Chicago. But even still having UIC, Loyola, and DePaul is good too.”
I was being Sarcastic
“We go to the museums several times a year. Millenium Park. Go to lakefront. We try to take advantage of all the city has to offer from the street fairs to other activities.”
So you are averaging hitting one of the big 5 a year?
“I’ll concede most people probably don’t take advantage of city as much as we do. We enjoy checking out various cities and all they have to offer. We used to travel to NYC a lot for weekends before kids and it was funny as we knew more about what was going on there more than our friends / family that actually lived in NYC at the time.”
For the right person that puts a lot of weight on this, Chicago is an excellent option. But you can get Art museums, etc in smaller cities.
Agree on kids and not exploring as much when you live somewhere Vs visit
“I want my snow gone within 24 hours”
I just had a conversation with a stranger in a store in Chicago where we were both lamenting the lack of snow this winter. We didn’t get any big storms. Didn’t even have to wear the boots or shovel. Very strange winter. Very mild. But it was boring. We all wanted at least one big storm but now that it’s mid-March it’s not going to happen.
Many of us like the seasons. If you don’t want to shovel, just live in a downtown high rise. You’ll never touch a shovel again.
New Orleans regained the title, as I said. I love both cities though. But for some reason, neither gets the national publicity about crime and murders like Chicago.
https://nypost.com/2022/09/18/new-orleans-becomes-murder-capital-of-america-overtaking-st-louis/
On Chicago v other cities: the fact remains that Chicago is the most affordable of the big cities. By far. And that, if you are middle class or even upper middle class, your quality of life will decline if you move.
And even though secondary cities have good restaurants and museums too, why should you move to one when you don’t have to? Why leave a first tier city that has everything you want at an attractive price?
Chicago should gain talent in the next year or two as people leave the high priced coasts because they’re priced out of ever buying there with these mortgage rates. It’s just easier to live, financially, in Chicago than many other places.
“And even though secondary cities have good restaurants and museums too, why should you move to one when you don’t have to? Why leave a first tier city that has everything you want at an attractive price?”
Quality of life and COL
And before you go on one of your nonsensical tirades, everyone has different preferences which weigh in their quality of life calculations.
“But it was boring. We all wanted at least one big storm ”
why? never understood why people want a big snow storm. it’s a pain in the a$$, messy, and potentially dangerous to some.
“why? never understood why people want a big snow storm. it’s a pain in the a$$, messy, and potentially dangerous to some.”
Yeah- 5 or 6 inches is terrible.
That’s what I mean by “big.” Most people don’t realize that Chicago rarely gets snowstorms over 10 inches. Only about a dozen times in the last 50 years. Most of our “big” storms are 5 to 7 inches.
They’re beautiful and fun. Lincoln Park is gorgeous. It’s magical sitting in a coffee shop with the fire going and watching it come down outside. Neighbors talk to each other as they shovel the front sidewalk. Neighbors help the elderly who need their cars dug out or might need help getting to the store.
We didn’t get any of that this year. Couldn’t even make a snow ball this year. A real drag.
“Quality of life and COL”
But clearly for the people who live in Chicago right now (not you, obviously, JohnnyU), they talked about looking at the alternatives and determining that their quality of life would go down if they left. There are only a handful of cities in America where you can get a similar lifestyle to what you can get in Chicago. And they’re all much more expensive, with the exception of Philadelphia.
Philly is underrated, really. But it doesn’t have the beautiful lake front like Chicago and the airport isn’t as good.
I think the biggest benefit of a Chicago snowstorm is the drop in the murder rate. Well, I don’t actually have the data to support this but it stands to reason. I know that the murder rate correlates with the temperature. People prefer to shoot each other when the weather is nice.
“But clearly for the people who live in Chicago right now (not you, obviously, JohnnyU), they talked about looking at the alternatives and determining that their quality of life would go down if they left. There are only a handful of cities in America where you can get a similar lifestyle to what you can get in Chicago. And they’re all much more expensive, with the exception of Philadelphia.”
If one is a true urbanist – Chicago is to New York as Ft Wayne is to Chicago
So no one leaves the city for the ‘burbs after having kids?
Typically ones wants/needs arent static. Its called growth, you should try it sometime
You touting Filthadelphia & the food scene it StL says a lot
“touting Filthadelphia”
Some of the nicest suburbs anywhere, tho.
“Some of the nicest suburbs anywhere, tho.”
Just suburbs? Lol. Urban core rocks. And the last 10 years of urban gentrification has only made it even better. It’s a real gem for city lovers who are priced out of the other east coast cities.
“If one is a true urbanist – Chicago is to New York as Ft Wayne is to Chicago”
Again, no one has argued on this thread that NYC isn’t great or that Chicago overtakes it in some way if you love big, dense cities. But the whole point of this discussion was that several people who live in Chicago have looked into moving somewhere else. They decided against it because you cannot get a walkable, urban city with museums/restaurants for anywhere close to Chicago’s housing prices.
Your quality of life would decline significantly in NYC, for instance.
Chicago is affordable and continues to offer a great quality of life. It is the only large city that can say that. And it will be a catalyst the next few years, especially if mortgage costs remain high.
“So no one leaves the city for the ‘burbs after having kids?”
Another great thing about Chicago, and most big cities, is that the push for urbanization the last 15 years has meant the schools have improved and many people don’t want to leave the city for the suburbs. Chicago’s biggest problem with keeping young families is really housing costs. Just can’t afford to buy a SFH in many neighborhoods in Chicago now. Heck, it’s even $600,000 to buy a SFH in Woodlawn now. That’s not middle class housing. If you’re middle class, may have no choice but to leave for the suburbs.
“I know that the murder rate correlates with the temperature. People prefer to shoot each other when the weather is nice.”
We’ve had an extremely warm winter Gary. No polar vortexes and few days under 20 degrees at all. By your theory, the murder rate for 2023 should be higher than normal but I believe it is under last year.
“Chicago is affordable and continues to offer a great quality of life.”
“If you’re middle class, may have no choice but to leave for the suburbs.”
Those were three minutes apart. So Chicago is affordable and contintues to offer a great quality of life for the UMC or higher. Don’t the UMC tend to have a great quality of life pretty much anywhere? I mean, if they’re willing to live in a smaller and/or not so nice home, even in the most expensive places in the country.
Warm weather brings out the shooters. No one is hanging out on corners & blocks when it is below freezing so murder rate goes down. Can’t shoot an “opp” if they aren’t outside…
Annony, UMC will live good anywhere by most measures. However, it also depends on what you want and what is important to you.
Honestly, if your thing is being a homebody and driving to Target or some other suburban mall for shopping, you can pretty much live good anywhere. My point was that the arts & culture, transportation, parks, museums, etc are far greater in number and superior in Chicago than practically any city and the COL here is a bargain all things considered.
When we look at relocating and see what we give up outside of the actual house being purchased, it always seems like a net loss given our current lifestyle.
We’d drop say $1 mill on a house and then not have good access to public transit, would probably need to pay for private school at some point, would have to drive everywhere, arts & cultural activities would be pretty “meh” relatively speaking. Neighborhood wouldn’t be really walkable.
For example, I’m in Oak Park. My kids can use public k thru 12. Kids can walk or bike to school. I can literally walk for miles and it is pleasant doing so. Walk / Bike to downtown OP. I have every single amenity I could possibly need within 1 to 2 miles. Green line. Blue line. Two Metra Rails. All within walking or biking distance. Easy access to highway. Can be in Downtown Chicago within 20 minutes or so for all the city has to offer as well. Four parks with playgrounds within a five minute walk from house. Easy access to O’Hare. On and on… When we lived on Northside it was similar.
Just saying when we look at moving we realize we give up a lot of that convenience. House would be nicer, but then we are literally driving everywhere.
It’s a fact that murders vary with the seasons. And then there is this statistical analysis: “A 10-degree (°C) higher temperature was significantly associated with 34% more shootings on weekdays, and 42% more shootings on weekends or holidays.” https://injepijournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40621-020-00260-3
“Just saying when we look at moving we realize we give up a lot of that convenience. House would be nicer, but then we are literally driving everywhere.”
Yup…not terribly interested in moving somewhere that isn’t *more* walk/bike/transit usable than current location. Not a ton of options in the US, really.
“Don’t the UMC tend to have a great quality of life pretty much anywhere? I mean, if they’re willing to live in a smaller and/or not so nice home, even in the most expensive places in the country.”
It’s more than just housing. In second tier and below cities, shopping for anything nice is tough. I know many people (UMC and above) who live in Kansas City and one of their major complaints is that you cannot buy nice stuff such as clothing or furniture locally. Need a nice a new couch for your cheap new house that you want to look at and sit on before buying, have to head to Chicago, NYC, Dallas… It’s the same with clothing. Nordstrom’s in Overland Park, KS is not the same as Nordstrom’s Michigan Avenue. The only higher end shoes are old lady orthopedic shoes. Want some Louboutins because you make $200K and only pay $1400/month in rent, visit your friend in Chicago with an empty suitcase.
Their other complaint is that there are not enough childfree people to hang out with.
Funny you mention, KC. That is a favorite city of ours and one we considered as my wife lived there after college. We visit regularly and have a lot upper income friends there. It really isn’t substantially cheaper real estate wise but you definitely give up a lot of the things mentioned in my previous post. I just did a $1.5 purchase there for a Chicago relo.
Public schools suck unless you live on KS side. Definitely suburban living by in large. You can live around the Plaza area and it is somewhat walkable with nice high end shopping but it isn’t nearly the same level as it is here in Chicago.
The other issue is career mobility. Chicago has a ton of major companies and diversity of industry. Problem with KC is there aren’t a ton of big companies to go to if things don’t work out with employer. You’ll most likely need to leave KC.
“Just suburbs?”
Never said that.
Anyway…as you said: “If you’re middle class, may have no choice but to leave for the suburbs.”
“It’s more than just housing. In second tier and below cities, shopping for anything nice is tough. I know many people (UMC and above) who live in Kansas City and one of their major complaints is that you cannot buy nice stuff such as clothing or furniture locally. Need a nice a new couch for your cheap new house that you want to look at and sit on before buying, have to head to Chicago, NYC, Dallas… It’s the same with clothing. Nordstrom’s in Overland Park, KS is not the same as Nordstrom’s Michigan Avenue.”
We were just discussing higher-end shopping in our house the other day, including explaining to the kids that, in major cities like NYC and Chicago, going shopping is an important activity for a lot of folks – singles out alone, couples dating or married couples out on a date, families – it’s something they plan, look forward to, it’s a part of their identity, almost the way it is for people who regularly watch the same teams play sports and care greatly about the outcomes, or climb mountains, or travel to see the same band over and over, or chase waves around the world, or build schools in developing countries, or try to spot rare birds, whatever. Getting dressed stylishly to go look at nice stuff, having lunch somewhere nice, maybe buying something nice. For the past few years, other than them seeing me dressed to go to the office a couple days a week lately, they’re surprised when I’m in something other than sweatpants or shorts (“Jeans – what’s the occasion?”), so it came as a shock to them to hear my wife explain that I very much liked to shop and loved nice clothes when we lived in NYC, Atlanta (yes, there are nice things available in Buckhead) and Chicago, that I had ever rationalized, let alone derived fulfillment from, buying sweaters from places like Barney’s and whatnot. Good grief, in the 80s my mother worked weekends at the nicest dept store in WNY for the extra cash and store discount just so I could dress like the dandies and swells I somehow fell in with from high schools other than mine. To each his or her own, but when I look back on all of that I’m inclined to punch myself in the face.
“Yup…not terribly interested in moving somewhere that isn’t *more* walk/bike/transit usable than current location. Not a ton of options in the US, really.”
If public transit is a factor, no doubt, outside of NYC and Chicago, it’s bleak. Even in places where the transit options are actually pretty decent, it’s mostly utilized by students, the working poor, the homeless, and vagrants. Car culture reigns supreme pretty much everywhere, and the pandemic has only worsened things in that regard. On some of my recent bus commutes I’ve felt naked for not having any face tattoos. For the first time in my life I’m carrying mace and it takes me about five minutes when I arrive to the office or back to the house to transition out of a Travis Bickle state of mind. Not great.
I have no shame in admitting shopping is one of my hobbies. Baking supplies, plants, shoes, and handbags are my favorites. There is a reason I comment on kitchen and closet storage.
“If public transit is a factor”
Somewhat less walkable/bikeable can be made up for by transit–like if hypothetically the “good” neighborhood shopping/entertainment area is 2 stops down, but in between is very big hill, or an inconvenient bridge with a troll underneath, or similar impediment.
Prefer not to “have to” transit, except as *option* for “city center”/local attraction (beach, whatever) and airport.
Sabrina trying to pretend OTR, Cincinnati, is a perfectly acceptable and walkable place for her to live. It makes sense if she’s on crack frequenting one of the crack dens there.
https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/hamilton-county/cincinnati/over-the-rhine/1-critically-injured-in-over-the-rhine-shooting-saturday
“Over the Rhine is completely gentrified” -Sabrina
https://www.fox19.com/2023/03/08/clifton-break-in-suspect-shoots-resident-kills-dog-owner-begged-her-life/
Calling Chicago the nation’s “murder capital” when it’s 13th in per-capita murders is quite the mauling of statistics. Chicago had more murders than Plano, Texas, last year. Oh? Really!
Not to say murders aren’t a problem or that any number is OK. I’m very disappointed in the totals. I think the politicians cited in that article bear some blame, particularly Foxx.
““Over the Rhine is completely gentrified” -Sabrina”
Gentrification and violent crime are not the same thing, are they?
There haven’t been shootings and homicides in New Orleans French Quarter? That neighborhood has been gentrified for 30 years. Lincoln Park never sees violence and murders? What about South Beach? That’s not gentrified? SoHo? Hell’s Kitchen?
Oh Bob.
“It’s a fact that murders vary with the seasons.”
That’s not what you originally said Gary. Everyone who lives in Chicago knows that there is more violence in the summer than the winter because 1) kids are out of school 2) days are longer and 3) more people outside because it’s warmer out.
But you were arguing that Chicago’s murder totals this year are higher than other years during the winter months. We HAVE been much warmer this winter but the murder numbers are below 2021’s to start the year. So the correlation with temperature maybe doesn’t pan out in the winter.
“If you’re middle class, may have no choice but to leave for the suburbs.”
That’s only if you are set on living on the north side. Can still move to the west side and south side and find middle class homes. They just built several new construction single family homes in Woodlawn and are pricing them at $550k. Is $550k middle class with these mortgage rates? Might not be.
So if you can’t get your neighborhood, either have to change locations or go to the suburbs. But Chicago IS still affordable and still has a great quality of life. I know you have lived in other places anonny. It’s simply no comparison for what you get for the money with places like San Francisco, Seattle, LA, San Diego, Denver and on and on.
“There is a reason I comment on kitchen and closet storage.”
Lol.
“But you were arguing that Chicago’s murder totals this year are higher than other years during the winter months. We HAVE been much warmer this winter but the murder numbers are below 2021’s to start the year. So the correlation with temperature maybe doesn’t pan out in the winter.”
Actually, I was conjecturing that murders go down when there is a lot of snow. And I was basing that on the fact that murders go down when it gets colder, suggesting that the weather has an impact. I provided a link to a study that showed the temperature impact. An average over a single season does not disprove that study.
In this post I show data that clearly shows the seasonal pattern of murders. It’s not binary. And that same post shows how Chicago murders vary by community area. The gentrified neighborhoods have very low crime rates. https://lucidrealty.com/chicago-murder-map-and-neighborhood-totals-2022-update/
Unfortunately, with my move I never got around to doing my usual, broader violent crime analysis but I can assure you it shows the same pattern.
“Is $550k middle class with these mortgage rates?”
Is $150k HHI middle class?
“Actually, I was conjecturing that murders go down when there is a lot of snow.”
But this is my point. We haven’t had a lot of snow. We basically haven’t had hardly any this year. And yet the murders, through Mar 19, are actually lower than the last 2 years.
So weather maybe impacts the murder rate only in the summer, when it is hot, and more people are outside and have little to do with the winter.